The Mosman Ring Of Confidence Is Shining Through

The Mosman Ring Of Confidence Is Shining Through

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The global financial crisis (GFC) for most of us has been a frustrating and fascinating exercise in understanding human behaviour. We now know that when the property market is booming, buyers are more than happy to pay well above the market value simply because consumer sentiment is strong. So when consumer sentiment is down, the market won’t engage, even though prices have been heavily discounted. Whilst the discount theory works very effectively in retail, it is abundantly clear that it definitely does not work in the acquisition of real estate. The reason why is quite simple. The mentality engages in short–term, but when the market is booming, the train of thought is long term because life is rosy and the bread winners are exceeding budget expectations. Doom and gloom? Things aren’t nearly as bad as you think Ross Gittins wrote in the Sydney Morning Herald “Economists don’t have a good record on forecasting what will happen to the economy, but here’s a prediction I make with great confidence: whatever happens, it won’t be as bad as you think. That applies particularly to the jobs market.”

Alan Kohler wrote on Business SpectatorDebt’s pall over lucky country “Can there ever have been a country in such good shape as ours that’s as miserable as Australia is? The government is in disarray: unpopular, turning on itself, throwing good sense out of the coach as if pursued by a pack of wolves. Businesses are laying off staff and whingeing about everything. Consumers are stressed, not spending, turning on government and banks. Yet unemployment is low, the currency is strong, interest rates are coming down, national savings are bulging, economic growth is solid and there’s a mining boom on. What’s going on? Why is Australia in such a wretched state of mind despite being in such good physical shape?”


BUY PRINT

Trying to understand consumer sentiment is like being blind folded while trying to assemble a giant jig-saw puzzle. No real estate agency in Mosman spends as much time dissecting these trends than the team at Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay Research (RWM Research). Surprise jump in consumer confidence where we were not surprised to see that the survey by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute showed its index of consumer sentiment climbed 4.2 percent in February to 101.1, showing optimists finally outnumbered pessimists.

Times are different and this was highlighted with ANZ’s cautious pioneering rate hike which then prompted a banks break link to Reserve. There will be winners and losers and I see two big winners – Mortgage wars Groundhog Day: Mark Boris and John Symonds turn back the clock as they take on the banks. I see Aussie Home Loans and Yellow Brick Road grabbing significant market share from the “Big Four” simply because they have positioned themselves as being consumer friendly and much more compassionate. In total fairness RBA backs banks over higher borrowing costs which opens the lending market to those whom don’t have the “Big Four” funding exposure.

Source: Property Observer

Unemployment figures make Aussie economy doomsayers humiliated again: Christopher Joye for years I have argued in Virtual Realty News that a majority of real estate commentators can “talk the talk – but can’t walk the walk.” I rest my case – Mosman heads top 100 list, with Kew, Paddington and Castle Hill climbing the ranks and Hope Island and Vaucluse tumbling – the Mosman real estate market has been the number one performing real estate market for over a decade. Why? That’s simple – it is without a doubt Australia’s most incestuous market that constantly trades within. Families move within the 2088 postcode, they don’t move out.

The greatest uncertainty that clouds our property markets is why we can’t trust Gillard anymore only an ill- advised idiot would have appeared on the Four Corners program – Gillard showed flawed judgement by appearing on program. This would explain the public sentiment that PM’s steadily declining authority is all of her own making where the simple truth is that financial and property markets would jump with the announcement of her removal. She is an economic disaster.

Source: Domain Property Monitors

    MOSMAN – 2088

    • Number of houses on the market last week– 109
    • Number of houses on the market this week – 129
    • Number of apartments on the market last week – 111
    • Number of apartments on the market this week – 116

    CREMORNE – 2090

    • Number of houses on the market last week– 17
    • Number of houses on the market this week – 16
    • Number of apartments on the market last week – 17
    • Number of apartments on the market this week – 18

    NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

    • Number of houses on the market last week – 15
    • Number of houses on the market this week – 17
    • Number of apartments on the market last week – 67
    • Number of apartments on the market this week – 71

A significant increase in the Mosman house listings this week although well below the spring peak of 168 house offerings. We may now hit 140 houses on the run up to Easter, but I don’t believe we will see more than 135 houses on the market before then.

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate – Click Here

For this week’s open for inspections – Click Here

Terry McCrann wrote this week in the Daily Telegraph “Gillard should gallop for glee on Port Henry” – “What on earth is the problem? Julia Gillard and Greg Combet should be over the moon, or at least, wildly ecstatic, at the possible closure of Alcoa’s aluminium smelter at Point Henry near Geelong.” “Even if such closure is not a direct consequence of the Gillard Government’s carbon tax, it is precisely what the carbon tax is intended to achieve.”

I did enjoy this piece “an alternative interpretation to all this, is just how hopeless, pathetic and utterly uncomprehendingly unknowing is the person that purports to be our prime minister.”

As seen on TV: the $700 set – top box from Labor – Hello you can buy a brand new television for $700 which is now double the figure when announced in the 2009 – 10 federal budget.

The elected government is following Basil Fawlty’s business model.

Cheers ^__^

6 Responses to “The Mosman Ring Of Confidence Is Shining Through”

  • Ann says:

    Robert

    Basil Fawlty was a fine businessman compared to this lot.

  • Hotly Spiced says:

    If only Basil Fawlty was at the helm we’d all be sleeping peacefully – or at the very least having a good laugh.

  • Ann says:

    Hotly spiced, touche to that. Well said

  • Great blog Rob.
    Thanks
    AB

  • Rowan says:

    When you say “the Mosman real estate market has been the number one performing real estate market for over a decade”, that might be true if you’re a real estate agent and your business and income are based on the turnover in a particular suburb.

    But who among the buyers or sellers in your readership are jumping up and down for joy? We’re far more interested in price movements than total volume! The papers I read rate suburb performance by their price rises, not market volume!

  • Rowan

    I take your point – there is no set formula however, I look at volume first given it shows that the number of properties selling is on the increase which means that slowly prices are going up.

    If you look when the market is booming Mosman trades at ten percent which is just under 500 sales per annum for the last few years it has been trading at around five per cent.

    Much like the All Ords which is today at 4,320 – if it hits 5,000 the markets will be rejoicing which in turn flows back to the real estate markets.

    The more people buying the stronger the market – this also identifies (that for the moment) real estate values in Mosman have bottomed.

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