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Forget the last federal election that resulted in a hopeless hung parliament – the new rule is incarcerated in people speak – hallelujah as “united we stand – divided we fall.” Despite what politicians may say with bated breath – polls threaten their very own livelihoods as much as they threaten our right to agree or disagree. Left field policy announcements within the Rudd/Gillard regime has been met with aggression that resurrected – if you don’t like it run an advertising campaign first initiated by the mining companies.

Politicians want to be in the limelight – not a back drop hidden within a party struggling for that voter point of difference whilst in Opposition. It is interesting to note that parties in Opposition burn leaders with regularity given when Bob Hawke was Prime Minister (1983 – 1991) the Liberal Party went through four Opposition leaders, Andrew Peacock (1983 – 1985), John Howard (1985 – 1989), Andrew Peacock (1989 – 1990) and John Hewson (1990 – 1994). When Paul Keating was elected Prime Minister (1991 – 1996) he saw off John Hewson (1990 – 1994), Alexander Downer (1994 – 1995) then lost the 1996 Federal election to John Howard (1995 – 2007). Federal Labor then waved good bye to Kim Beazley (1996 – 2001), Simon Crean (2001 – 2003), Mark Latham (2003 – 2005) and Kim Beazley (2005 – 2006). Enter Kevin Rudd (2006 – 2010), Brendan Nelson (2007 – 2008), Malcolm Turnbull (2008 – 2009) then Tony Abbott (2009 – present).

Julia Gillard removed Kevin Rudd on (24 June 2010 – present) which is the first example of an elected Government burning a Prime Minister. Now we see (Labor worries as PM struggles) and even stranger Labor hits a 15 – year low but Rudd wins where the HeraldNielsen poll now has Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull as the preferred party leaders! Since 1983, Australia has had five Prime Ministers and twelve Opposition leaders with Kevin Rudd becoming just the second Prime Minister to serve just the one term and Julia Gillard fast tracking becoming the third. Federal Labor has now had two Prime Ministers in four years and NSW Labor had four Premiers in four years – a pattern forming?

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Let’s face it the Carbon Tax is a monumental debacle of mammoth proportion with many questions being asked – well Prime Minister, let’s see if you can hold your nerve. As key union puts Julia Gillard on notice over carbon tax which means that Julia Gillard’s carbon hopes up in smoke. Resembling an all in – brawl as food giants join war on carbon tax a great read on Carbon Tax is learning the hard way: Australia’s policies to reduce emissions – Grattan Institute. Throw in another major problem in that the Gillard Government is now fighting a bewildering array of battles, as it fashions a budget bound to open more fronts – budget blues.

Chris Richardson, Deloitte Access Economics: “The Global Financial Crisis was not a drama for our economy. It was and is still a drama for the Budget.”

Chris Uhlmann: The last forecast said this year’s deficit would land at $41 billion in the red. Next year the projected budget is 412 billion. But slowing growth and falling company and income tax receipts now mean those numbers are too rosy. With the Budget just weeks away, this year’s deficit will be worse.”

Chris Richardson: “Looking at the budget as a rolling 12 – month total, at its worst, it was a little bit over $60 billion in deficit. But that’s more or less where it still is.”

Which would then explain why Wayne Swan leaked figures showing $13bn slump in growth: Hockey. Back to that white board and “Building a better Australia.” As Julia told us!

Source: The Australian

Which brings us to the NBN Co debacle given Fort Fumble has temporarily terminated connections as business chief slams NBN rollout describing it as a squandered opportunity and one of the worst examples of pork – barrelling.  This should not come as any great surprise given Fort Fumble spent $2.5 billion on roof batts, $16 billion on the overpriced BER and spending $50 billion on the NBN Co – without a cost benefit study. Given it has now been halted due to blow – outs Fort Fumble is now considering a … wait for it…. NBN may accept greater risk which translates into greater debt and yet another debacle which would explain why it is currently suspended.

RBA minutes point to rates staying put which means that reading between the lines the cash rate won’t be moved until sometime within the December Quarter 2011. The months of October, November and December will see some upward movement(s) of the official cash rate. With the Federal fudge (oops I meant to say budget) to be released early next month it appears that Wayne Swan is about to announce that forecast growth will drop significantly from the earlier projected figure of 3.25 per cent to 2.25 per cent. That then would equate to a one per cent drop in Australia’s $1.3 trillion economy so the black hole is then $13 billion. Yes the Federal budget will be ugly but not as ugly as the manner in which Fort Fumble has handled Australia’s finances.

NSW ranks bottom in economic momentum as costs eat into savings, and sense of security which means that Barry O’Farrell has plenty of work ahead to rejuvenate and renovate the previous number one economy in Australia. A huge announcement this week: Barry O’Farrell’s pledge to put lid on power which is in stark contrast to the now collapsed Fort Crumble who pinched $15 billion in dividends and put nothing back into electricity – dividend freeze a crucial step.

New home loan numbers plunge: John Symond as residential property prices peaked in 2010 and will continue cooling in the next six months as big mortgage brokers report a 20 per cent drop in loan numbers. It’s too early to extrapolate the January – March 2010 figures against the January – March 2011 sales results – we will do that in a few week’s time as they are still being processed.

In the meantime here are the Mosman house sales and total value for the last ten years from 2000 – 2010 which is a Mosman first and Virtual Realty News exclusive.

Source: Domain Property Data

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES AND TOTAL VALUE – 2000 TO 2010

• 2000 – House Sales: 336 Total Value Of All House Sales: $464,002,395
• 2001 – House Sales: 413 Total Value Of All House Sales: $709,864,118
• 2002 – House Sales: 358 Total Value Of All House Sales: $723,591,555
• 2003 – House Sales: 359 Total Value Of All House Sales: $829,527,432
• 2004 – House Sales: 300 Total Value Of All House Sales: $677,939,257
• 2005 – House Sales: 293 Total Value Of All House Sales: $692,071,000
• 2006 – House Sales: 380 Total Value Of All House Sales: $947,918,130
• 2007 – House Sales: 395 Total Value Of All House Sales: $1,153,099,720
• 2008 – House Sales: 255 Total Value Of All House Sales: $867,925,612
• 2009 – House Sales: 299 Total Value Of All House Sales: $789,424,751
• 2010 – House Sales: 333 Total Value Of All House Sales: $870,181,155

RWM Research: In 2007 Mosman broke the $1 Billion mark for the total value of houses sold in a calendar year with 395 houses selling – also the record.

Next week, we will look at the average and median prices for Mosman houses from 2000 – 2010. As well as scrutinise the upcoming Federal Budget. ‘Wayne’s World’ is suffering as he has lost those ‘rivers of gold’ where many point a finger at his self-created ‘rivers of waste’.

Have a fantastic and safe Easter – savour and share our ANZAC spirit.

“Lest We Forget”

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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21.04.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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On one hand we have a federal government and on the other, state/territory governments and today, the left hand has no idea what the right is doing. Back–flips in politics these days are nearly as frequent as another installation of a red light speeding camera on our roads – Government backs down on health GST deal. After months and months of political rhetoric Julia Gillard proposes 50 – 50 hospital deal then surprise, surprise as Tony Abbott says Julia Gillard revamped health reform package is yet another back down. Next a constitutional crisis was averted as Abbott concocts constitutional strife with crossbench offer for rural students bringing yet another back– flip as Labor backs down on youth allowance, admitting faults in scheme for regional students. This back – flip set another extraordinary political precedent given the Julia Gillard cave – in heads off crushing defeat.

Sitting well above ground, the Governor for Moolah announced to his fellow Australian shareholders that interest rates are where they should be. Unlike Fort Fumble, which is carefully manoeuvring itself from a dastardly week of failed policy capitulations, the Governor says mining the focus, not floods. On the flip– side, our Gov urges Australians to keep saving and shareholders should see that statement as a clue, given our household debt is high.We need to be realistic given nothing will stop prices soaring as an Australian Industry Group announced that the annual bill for a typical Sydney household will climb from $1,257 to $2,012 between 2009 – 10 and 2012 -13.

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You can erase policy fails to keep up with the boom given the ALP is earnestly pursuing a self proclaimed renaissance – ALP’s plan to reverse membership slump would give supporters a say in pre – selections. Fascinating theatrevin Rudd takes aim at party’s faction culture; wants party’s full review made public a self-proclaimed communist Julia Gillard rejects Rudd’s call to release election review. Which no doubt would have caused face flushes when it was revealed ALP – take a Bex, Gillard tells union heavyweights who just so happen to be the anointed ones who fast tracked the demise of The Emperor – one KRudd. Somewhat riveting, in that The Emperor – Kevin Rudd takes aim at party’s culture; wants party’s full review made public a self proclaimed communist Julia Gillard rejects Rudd’s call to release election review. Which no doubt would have caused face flushes when it was revealed ALP numbers all point the wrong way.

Australia to have carbon price from July 1. 2012, Julia Gillard announces. Now hold on a moment! In the run–up to the last federal election, Gillard ruled out a carbon tax? Not much clear in Gillard and Greens carbon framework given the key differences between the Greens, Labor and the independents that still need to be resolved. Nothing has been decided, nothing has been achieved – just another announcement hence people’s revolt looms on Australian carbon tax, Tony Abbott predicts.

The show goes on and hold your seat – Infrastructure Australia has all but derailed which is an adoptive analogy for our inept, floundering and totally incompetent NSW government. “The Gillard government’s confirmation that it will contribute $2.1 billion to building the Epping – Parramatta railway line in suburban Sydney will probably not help Labor in NSW, but it has delivered a fatal blow to the credibility of Infrastructure Australia.”Labor election strategy in chaos as voters cut Keneally loose with their primary vote down to 23 per cent and getting worse – one month tomorrow until NSW goes to the polls. Not only (according to the polls) is Keneally gone, the result will be the greatest hiding in Australian electoral history. Power sale ‘will raise only $700m’ a tad down from the predicted $5 billion – I refer you back to this week’s photo by the great Tim Mooney (with a few strikes of genius).

Last week, we commenced our exclusive breakdown of Mosman house prices from 1999 to 2010. In last week’s edition of <em>Virtual Realty News</em> we covered house prices from 1999 to 2005 up to $5.000 million – here are the 2006 to 2010 results. The data has been downloaded from <em>Domain Property Data</em> and calibrated by <em>RWM Property Research.</em>

2006 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 352
• Total Value – $742,885,130
• Median Price – $1,855,000
• Average Price – $2,110,469
• Highest Price – $15,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 48
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 146
• House sales above $2,000,000 – 86
• House sales above $3,000,000 – 45
• House sales above $4,000,000 – 27

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 7.1 per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 48 which is approximately 13.5 per cent of total sales. The average price increased from $2,017,809 to $2,105,327. Auction clearance rates increased from 36 per cent to 40 per cent.

2007 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 356
• Total Value – $815,749,720
• Median Price – $2,165,000
• Average Price – $2,291,431
• Highest Price – $22,500,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 57 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 28
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 126
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 111
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 53
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 38

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 7.2 per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 28 which is approximately 7.8 per cent of total sales. The average price increased from $2,110,469 to $2,291,431. Auction clearance rates increased from 40 per cent to 57 per cent.

2008 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 231
• Total Value – $523,725,612
• Median Price – $2,200,000
• Average Price – $2,267,210
• Highest Price –$14,700,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 35 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 25
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 83
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 71
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 30
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 22

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 4.7 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 25 which is approximately 10 per cent of sales. The average price dropped from $2,291,431 to $2,267,210. Auction clearance rates dropped from 57 per cent to 35 per cent.

2009 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 277
• Total Value – 630,499,751
• Median Price – $2,085,000
• Average Price – $2,276,172
• Highest Price – $13,200,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 42 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 18
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 114
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 83
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 36

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 5.5 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 18 so 6.5 per cent sold. The average price increased marginally from $2,267,210 to $2,276,172. Auction clearance rates increased from 25 per cent to 42 per cent.

2010 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 299
• Total Value – $704,286,155
• Median Price – $2,100,000
• Average Price – $2,355,472
• Highest Price – $12,600,000 (RWM)
• ,Auction Clearance Rate – 42 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 9
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 112
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 86
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 58
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 34

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 6.1 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 9 which is approximately 3.00 per cent of sales. In 1999 sales up to $999,999 made up 88.5 per cent of sales. The average price continued to climb ever so slowly to $2,355,472.

Next week we look at Mosman house sales above $5,000,000 from 1999 to 2010 and again we get a most interesting snapshot of how our top–end is travelling. It is doing much better than the combined efforts of Forts Crumble and Fumble.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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25.02.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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Another fascinating week following the recent federal election. Our new politics takes on a toxic taste, the newly elected Fort Fumble is under attack and there will be plenty of casualties. Whilst treason within Fort Fumble can never be ruled out – Paul Kelly in The Australian wrote “Welcome to the new politics once inconceivable yet now on stunning display: the discredited Kristina Keneally NSW government, the ACTU and the Greens in a united troika against the Labor government of Julia Gillard.” Whatever the outcome, this will get ugly, especially when one throws in the broadband battle: PM appeals to opposition as bills reintroduced.

Wayne Swan ‘no’ to release of mining tax figures which defies a Senate order as the deal with big miners unravelling. Was there ever a deal? These are but a few issues which will impact seriously on the Australian economy. Such as mining tax ‘unravelling budget surplus’ – Abbott although it is fast resembling a mining and banking war as Labor’s besieged on two fronts.

Will Keneally burn Gillard? I don’t think so you broke our deal, Gillard tells Keneally so this hissy fit then became the “Battle of the Birds” – (finger salutes included.) Paul Kelly wrote “there are many morals from these events; the clearest is that the NSW government is radioactive in a political sense and will contaminate anything it touches.”

In The Australian Niki Savva wrote this brilliant piece Lead on reform or lose way – “Julia Gillard has failed to take charge and shape the national debate on key issues. More than 100 days in both jobs, Julia Gillard has failed to properly define herself as Prime Minister or as Labor leader.” Then to Premier Bambi (I will have to borrow that) – “If a state Premier as damaged and weakened as NSW’s Kristina Keneally feels emboldened enough to challenge Gillard on an issue involving unions, and one central to Gillard’s claim of success as a reformer, negotiator and administrator, then the Prime Minister is in real trouble.” Don’t forget the farmers are up in arms given their “rivers no longer run free.”

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Building industry faces skills shortfall as the booming mining industry is now moving our skilled workers away from building infrastructure as construction industry braced for upturn. The Australian Industry Group (Ai Group)/Australian Construction Association (ACA) construction outlook survey expects the value of construction work to rise by 5.9 per cent during 2010/11 and then 7.9 per cent in 2011/12. This follows just 1.5 per cent in 2009/12 which is led by iron ore and coal; commodity export prices have soared by 52 per cent in the past year to surpass the pre–global financial crisis. Australia’s jobless rate creates wage pressures, report says given skilled workers are headed off to make their fortunes, thanks to our mining boom.

Fast but not free is key to future crisis approach where there are similarities with the failed Fort Fumble home insulation bungle. “The coordinator general and the kitchen cabinet that made all decisions about stimulus spending got the speed they wanted: actually they got a kind of modern – day gold fever: 200 insulation installing firms mushroomed to 10,834 in less than a year and the budget for the program blew out by $400 million.” Australia appears to be digging plenty of mines without any foundations given house building activity hits 18 – month low. Australia has a labour market of just 12 million people – the mining industry is eating up the construction industry. Julia Gillard needs to immediately remove the GST from the residential construction industry and get licensed builders back building houses. Recently it was revealed that Australia has a shortage of approximately 200,000 houses and this will grow to 800,000 by 2020 which identifies glaring problems within the Australian building industry.

Much written, read and said about the condition of Australia’s housing markets, so we found this RP Data graph an interesting insight into the state of play. Here are the Top 5 suburbs around Australia for the year to July 2010. No need to guess which suburb leads NSW for total value of sales.

Mosman dropped to third in the apartment stakes although what is interesting, are the results for Manly and Dee Why. With just eight weeks left in the official selling season for 2010, a Melbourne Cup cash rate increase will certainly test many niche property markets (which we preview next week). Compelling viewing given Mosman stock levels for both apartments and houses are on the rise as the graph below shows.

Always something to write about in our industry although I could not believe my eyes when I read Minister moves to mandate NBN so even if you don’t want Fort Fumble’s national broadband network you will be charged (reportedly $300) to be connected to it. Of course, this will probably blow out to $500 plus by the time the trenches are dug.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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22.10.10Robert Simeon6 Comments »

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After all, we are in the greatest performing economy on the planet. Having sailed through and mostly ahead of the global financial crisis (GFC), our property markets once again find themselves positioned at the business–end, following a term of prolonged holding patterns. Ground conditions are perfect for take–off, with clear skies ahead and very little turbulence on the radar. Although what remains unclear, is who will be playing and who will be staying? The buzz word during the GFC was stimulus and it was merchant bankers who stimulated top–end property markets. There was no better example than Mosman, which remains the most expensive municipality (not suburb) in Australia. Bankers’ bonuses have been ‘rivers of gold’ for our bricks and mortar markets (merchant bankers remain our single largest subscribers) although their market engagement appears to have peaked in early 2008.

What is acutely clear, is that households have been actively paying down debt, instead of rolling it over and taking on more. Not that long ago, real estate agents made diary notes as to when the big banks were paying bonuses, which translated into the annual game of house trap!

Property markets move in mysterious ways (remember when the GST was introduced in 2000?). We saw property developers in Mosman gradually withdraw (especially with houses) because the additional ten per cent impacted their returns on investment and this once popular vocation became academic.

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Pittwater weekenders were also very popular in the real estate indulgence markets where these properties failed the financial reconciliation of the GFC as the owners headed back home.

Another factor that needs to be considered when house values are flat, is that when additional acquisition costs (stamp duty) and selling costs are measured, vendors find themselves at breakeven. This was the norm, when purchasers were playing with additional income streams and stimulating markets with bonuses that can no longer be taken for granted. The following three graphs show the volume of stock on the market for houses and apartments in Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay, with houses showing much more consistent patterns.

MOSMAN

CREMORNE

NEUTRAL BAY

The Punch guide to our rich suburbs and big houses identifies a study conducted 2003–04 and 2007–08 which identified Mosman as having the highest average income in Australia, at $131,606 (the national average is $44,402). Considering that we are now post GFC and these results are more than two years old, it will be interesting to see if there are any significant changes to Sydney’s wealthiest the richest in the land.

Confidence has always provided the much needed oxygen to all financial markets so overseas travellers would be happy this week, to see the dollar bounces as economy worries fade. The question many are asking is ‘will confidence remain sky high’? Consumers turn cautious as outlooks clouds when the Westpac and Melbourne Institute released its index this week which showed that consumer sentiment fell 5 per cent in September to 113.2.

The consumer sentiment must have been taken before Julia Gillard announces cabinet which is just in time as parliament resumes in two weeks. The broadband debate will be riveting given Tony Abbott picks Turnbull to ‘demolish’ Gillard’s broadband plan. I wonder if he read skills shortage threatens Gillard’s NBN pledge when it was revealed the regional rollout could face a skills shortage. “The Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union estimates around 7,000 now have the competency to work on the NBN’s construction, but 25,000 technicians will be needed each year to build and operate the network over the period of its construction.” In the meantime, The Emperor is off to the USA for a sleepover at the White House and here are the other cabinet members.

The big banking announcement of the week was Basel III agreement announced. Global regulators are enforcing rules for banks to hold top–quality capital totalling seven per cent of their risk bearing assets (up from two per cent) to prevent any repeat of the recent international credit crisis. Australian banks are unfazed by tough new rules given they already qualify, with the ANZ sitting on 11.1 per cent, Commonwealth Bank 10.1 per cent, NAB 9.4 per cent and Westpac 8.6 per cent according to Deutsche Bank figures. Our banks are jumping back into the property market as lenders back throwing cash at buyers although our property bubble is too fit to burst. ‘A report last week from Moody’s Investor Service found that delinquency rates are still very low. For example 30+ days – past due delinquencies were 1.34 per cent in June compared to 1.39 per cent in May. That means that less than 2 per cent of loans are falling into arrears of 30 or more days past the due date’.

As stated previously, many Australian households are pre–paying their mortgages. Major banks report that over 55 per cent of mortgagees are ahead on their payment schedule, with 40 per cent, by more than a year. What a pity that U.S.A. banks were not in that position when subprime hit!

Here is a great one on one interview by our very own Steve Patrick with Glen Spratt from Mortgageport.

This video was produced by visualdomain

This week, we celebrated the 10th anniversary of the Sydney Olympic Games. Coincidentally, we celebrated the 10th birthday of Virtual Realty News. Ten years ago, when I sent out our first edition, it went to 38 subscribers (we still have a few of these originals) and look where we are today – $956,784,220 in online subscriber sales and Australia’s longest and most successful online newsletter. I am proud to say that over that time we have never missed a single edition. We have quite a few new initiatives in store and will be working very closely with visualdomain to produce fortnightly/monthly (still working that out) video editions of Virtual Realty News for those who don’t want to read them. Stay tuned for many more real estate industry firsts!

All will be revealed soon.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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17.09.10Robert Simeon4 Comments »

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It has now been revealed that the weakest link found by the key players two independents who delivered the government to Julia Gillard, preferred a leader who was more likely to run Parliament to its full three–year term. Tony Windsor believed that Tony Abbott was more likely to run a new election as soon as possible.  Asked why he thought so, Windsor replied: “Because I think they would be more likely to win.” So the Independents tear us to a new Paradigm as $10bn regional package seals Labor win. Who will forget that speech Oakeshott holds Australia hostage with self – indulgent theatrics better known as his 15 minutes of fame and his later admission he weighed up offers from Tony Abbott that got ‘bigger and bigger’.

Australia has a population of 22,454,686 and 14,030,528 voted according to the Electoral Commissioner where the breakdown is interesting. NSW – 4,591,748, Victoria – 3,547,403, QLD – 2,707,464, WA – 1,356,228, SA – 1,102,827, TAS – 357,873, ACT – 246,436 and NT – 120,489 which was a 385,455 increase from the 2007 election, when 13,645,073 were enrolled to vote.

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No time for woulda coulda shoulda from Gillard as less than 24 hours following the announcement the insults start to fly from furious Coalition as Liberal Senator George Brandis told ABC Radio, the Labor government had “as much legitimacy as the Pakistani cricket team”. Then Fort Fumble (or should that now be Fort Eggshell) faced a landslide when Wayne Swan appears at odds with independent by excluding mining tax from summit which promptly saw Windsor at odds with Labor over mining tax review as miners take up fight against rent tax again.

Even more revealing, Swan let Rudd down on MRRT: WA premier when it became obvious that many missed reading perhaps now politicians will stop trashing their reputations. One thing we are already assured of will be many more back flips as Hockey warns of government instability where it would be irresponsible to rule out The Revenge of The Emperor – Kevin Rudd back in the spotlight after Julia Gillard wins government.

I can see the headlines now “Gillard fights testosterone”, although I prefer, ‘here-ego’ again, to the polls! You would have noted that the new buzz word from our esteemed leader is “regional” which never saw the light of day in the pre–election hysteria. In whichever direction you look, you will see  too many seasoned bulls in the one paddock with very little room to ‘moo-ve’ in the lush paddocks surrounding Fort Fumble.

Economy held up well post – GFC, says RBA “in that market, unlike a number of others, conditions have generally returned to those before 2007.” Interesting to see that the Australian dollar has become the fifth most traded currency, overtaking the Swiss franc, with the AUD/USD remaining the fourth most traded currency pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold when directors met this week for their monthly cucumber sandwiches – rates unchanged, statement lacks ‘meat’.

The main triggers that determine home values are recessions, unemployment and interest rates, so this week’s announcement jobs surge increases rates risk delivers a strong possibility that in November we will see interest rates increased. On a positive note, investors are jumping back into term deposits making a comeback which means that the banks don’t have to buy more expensive money on the wholesale market. A great barometer for the property markets is consumer confidence, which is headed to ten–year highs.

Don’t bet the house on a property price bubble bursting provides an excellent assessment of how our property market is so different to the US housing market – subprime 2.0 is on its way. Yes our construction activity remains weak given poor planning to blame for building slump where again the culprit is Fort Crumble, Australia’s worst performing state government. The number of new dwellings completed in 1999 – 2000 was 32,358 and in 2007 – 2008 it was 14,795. The value of residential homes built in NSW since the late 1990’s has fallen from 36 per cent of Australian output to just over 20 per cent. The report estimates that for Sydney to keep up with demand, we will require 25,000 – 50,000 new homes each year. The present government target is 25,000. Here is an interesting graph showing Lower North Shore house and apartment sales from April 2008 to August 2010.

Here are the Mosman sales which remain consistent and strong for both demographics.

Mosman home values are still a very strong currency as the graphs indicate although when one looks at last week’s sales it is most obvious that the 2010 Federal election has confused consumer confidence. Based on our analysis of all data available, we can advise that we won’t see a property boom for at least a few years and prices will gradually increase. This leads me to suggest that we may now find ourselves in an entirely new space, where our households have transgressed from previous debt collection, to fast track debt reduction.

We don’t expect to see a sudden influx of properties on the market anytime soon, so get used to a property market that remains in a holding pattern (much better than a market in a folding pattern). The Mosman graph above, clearly indicates this and is anecdotal market evidence.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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10.09.10Robert Simeon7 Comments »

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Try telling that to Fort Crumble who are in a desperate wait for all the cows to come home where the fields are alive with the sound of Independents. The rural revolution is coming thanks to Election 2010 which now resembles a classic case of “foot and mouth” disease, prompting post – election behaviour that could even suggest the arrival of “mad cow” disease on Australian shores. The classic symptoms were noticeable well before Australia was herded to the polls last Saturday – erratic behaviour, aggressive demeanour, disorientated memory and agitated herd mentality. The paddocks now require new fences and boundaries – hay hay, Australia has been hung out to dry.

The post electoral shin dig over at the back paddock had to be cancelled, due to a lack of support which sparked headline act Midnight Soil to go batty as they were coming out of retirement after agreeing to make a one–off election appearance.

Like a bull at a gate, the Mad Monk waved his red robe Abbott attacks Labor’s ‘civil war’ and the mantra could he heard all over the paddock reject Labor: voters’ message to independent MP’s as the hollow men led Labor to disaster. Then the head heifer corralled one of her baby bulls when PM bans powerbroker Arbib from appearing on Q&A. Such was the Labor of Love given the odds shorten on next Labor leader where it keeps getting worse as Gillard in big trouble no what happens given we have a tortuous road to government.

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Back at the barn, even the cats showed their respective claws as the meows fast turned into a hissy fit McKew a ‘Labor hero’: Keneally then axing Rudd a strategic blunder:McKew. Then Rudd’s fault for dismal result, says Keneally although the alley cats were purring at a sneak preview of a Keneally bloodbath when the cool cats over in NSW go to the polls next March. NSW Labor headed for wipe out which brought about a familiar change after Julia … it’s the real Kristina.

Over in the northern paddock, more cats were hysterically meowing (as against dogs barking) where there was plenty of crying over spilt milk. I won’t suffer Rudd’s fate, says Bligh then Keneally lashed out at Bligh’s ‘NSW disease’ jibe. The 2010 Federal Election today resembles Old MacDonald’s farm although at this point we don’t envisage that the war will be enough to see our soldiers brought back home to restore order given disparities in voters’ priorities are even more stark now. Plenty of cries to cut the crap as electorates keep asking where is the vision? Now we have fighting on two fronts Labor war hurting bid for power and now Coalition begins its own civil war.

What spring promises for the market as sales sizzle, auctions cool although for the time being our property markets wrestles with election uncertainty. Australia this time around won’t be paying that much attention to what is happening in America given Obama running out of time to fix economy. This was not helped when this week it was revealed that US existing home sales dive to 15 – year low which is otherwise known as tumbling houses. Quite the opposite here in Australia given the latest HIA – CBA Housing Affordability Report identifies that more than ever before our property markets are out of reach. We are seeing some areas where prices are dropping then on the other side of the coin the prices are now increasing. Household debt in Australia has risen dramatically over the past three decades, but the number of home repossessions in Victoria and NSW is on the decline because we are keeping up the payments.

Last week we brought you the Dyson Austen Top 10 Prestige Residential Survey for January – March 2010 so this week we continue with the April – June 2010 results.

Interesting to note that the Eastern Suburbs recorded eight of the sales and Mosman posted two sales with RWM recording one of these two transactions. There are two interesting conclusions that can be observed from this data. Firstly, the top–end sales appear to be rebounding with suggestions that the upcoming Spring/Summer markets may see increased competition for these trophy homes. This was always going to happen – just that nobody really knew when.

Secondly, we have a new record since the global financial crisis (GFC).

The Dyson Austen Report, Simon Feilich acknowledged “if we look at this result (above) and the highest transaction ever achieved in the survey history ($45 million – Q3 2008) both sales occurred at a time when the $AU/US has just been devalued by 12% and almost 10% respectively.”

“NOTE: The jumbo prestige residential market is directly linked to the performance of the equity market, with the only other main external factor being the $AU/US rate as seen in Q3 2008 and the latest released Q2 2010.”

Since the election debacle the $A has started to fall again, due largely to the uncertainties ahead. It appears the nobody can form a government and even if they do, it will be a s#*& fight with all the internal bickering.

So I predict we will all be headed back to the polls in October.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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27.08.10Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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ABC Online’s chief political writer Annabel Crabb described it as the greatest oral challenge of our generation given The Emperor’s “greatest moral challenge” no longer exists, or does it? On the menu we were forced to consume Gillard’s pork pies hard to resist then we had the hidden truth behind the PM’s ‘impromptu’ speech. The 2010 federal election spending spree based on a rigour in funding promises doesn’t count for much given we have all heard the term ‘the cheque’s in the mail’ although this Sunday, the elected party will have to face the morning after … where Treasury will start costing those policies on the run, Sydney’s Parramatta to Epping rail line will come under much greater scrutiny and the inevitable financial quarantine until the next federal election.

The most frightening policy is, without a doubt, the $43 billion (43 thousand million dollars) national broadband network which stands to become the greatest white elephant in Australian political history and the biggest financial commitment for an Australian government. Interest payments for this scheme presently stand at $4.500 million per week which prompted Malcolm Turnbull to write on Business Spectator Why the NBN will fail which prompted one comment on the blog: Thank you Malcolm. I think blind Freddy could see that can you publish it in Braille as well? The leading question: is Stephen Conroy conning us on the NBN?

Classic Tim Mooney this shot was captured last Friday when the big Southerly bringing about the cancellation of the Manly Ferries

BUY PRINT

Someone should tell Julia Gillard that the fastest growing network in Australia is wireless – tailor made for Blackberry, iPhone, iPad and laptops, none of which require cable. Latest data reveals Internet searches are the most popular online activity on mobile phones. Some 73 per cent of users conduct online searches by mobile phone now, compared with 30 per cent a year ago. This explains why we launched our mobile property website last week, a first in Mosman. (This is designed to be viewed through your mobile phone)

Gillard & Co have used the white technical elephant as the NBN ‘sandbags’ for marginal seats – we should all be very concerned about this roll- out, especially as the private sector wanted no financial involvement. In economic jargon, this equates to ‘no return on investment’.

The 2010 federal election has completely ignored housing policy initiatives, because they are too hard to fathom and here is why. Rents leap as race to find home intensifies “Forget population growth, we’re not even seeing the housing needed for existing people. There’s an extremely severe housing shortage unique to Sydney.”

Housing affordability nears record low the HIA – CBA Housing Affordability Index fell 9.1 per cent in the June quarter to be 32 per cent compared to the same period last year. HIA chief economist, Harley Dale, said ‘there has been a lack of commitment during the recent federal election campaign to address the substantial hurdles aspiring home owners face.” Then “key federal policy priorities need to include a program to reduce new housing costs such as inequitable taxes and charges, better planning approvals systems, and a dedicated federal housing and development ministry to coordinate policy across all sectors and levels of government,” Mr Dale said.

I don’t share the belief by some that housing bear warns again of bubble waiting to burst as investors who are claiming losses may leave the rental markets. According to Tax Office figures, the proportion of taxpayers who own rental property has risen from 6.5 per cent in 1989 to 13.5 per cent in 2009, two thirds of whom claim a loss on investments. The rental markets are problematic, which is why we sold our property management portfolio earlier this year, to focus on our core business which is, of course, selling properties.

Always a brilliant barometer for the Sydney top end property market is the prestige property market report by Dyson Austen Top 10 for the 2010 January – March quarter.  Our very own Steve Patrick posted the fourth biggest sale with 19 Morella Road Clifton Gardens. Seven sales were recorded in the Eastern Suburbs, two to Mosman and one to Manly – overall a positive result for the prestige property markets.

The comparative analysis from 2004 to 2010 is always fascinating where you will see that the top end is holding its own and we predict a conservative improvement in the quarters ahead. One should remember that when this end of the market starts registering anecdotal sales results, the rest of the market follows suit. We don’t foresee a boom market in the immediate future, but we do see renewed market confidence and sentiment.

Next week, we will publish the Dyson Austen Top 10 sales for the 2010 April – June quarter.

So off to the polls we go tomorrow to elect a federal government for the next three years and by all accounts, it will be close. My prediction is a narrow Tony Abbott victory simply because NSW is vehemently opposed to anything Labor – Why Labor is losing the west. NSW will only start to see rapid improvement with infrastructure when they have a Liberal prime minister and a Liberal premier which will happen in March 2011. The day Gillard stopped spinning: NSW indefensible where I’m sure she regrets her policy on the run announcement about the Parramatta to Epping rail spin which will never happen under the current regime.

Who would have thought that not since 1931, we could witness just the second incumbent government removed after just the one elected term?  Who would have thought we may witness history where two prime ministers were removed in the one term?

Maybe Australia is moving forward!  Voters in Queensland and NSW will determine the outcome.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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20.08.10Robert Simeon8 Comments »

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Here we go again – Mad Monday wiped $40 billion from our shock – markets and once again, hedge funds ran amok with an  insatiable desire to short stocks. Throw in the calamities of Europe, a highly sensitive super tax on mining and  a federal election and we see emotions running high.  What is abundantly clear is, that financial markets now, more than ever before, will dictate property markets results for quite a few years to come.  As they say “money makes the world go around” and it would be fair to suggest that currently, it is spinning much slower.

With world economies delicately poised and many drowning with self induced sovereign debt,  parts of Europe are crawling on the banking bridge of bankruptcy. Greece laid low by its decadence it was quick to blame US banks for debt woes. Brace for China’s heavy breaking was concerning also given the revelation that Germany still fears a meltdown.

What we are presently seeing from China will play a dominant role on the Australian economy, since China is trimming its commodity shopping list – hence a weaning off Aussie minerals. This suggests that Fort Fumble’s (federal government) resources super profit tax will be revoked due to international circumstances. Not exactly a great week for The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) when shares hit a nine – month low then our Aussie dollar nosedives as Europe worries bite. It should be noted that plenty of investors are actively buying up US dollars (USD) – the CCC – Current Calamity Currency.

BUY PRINT

Not a great week for Fort Grumble (federal opposition) Abbott put to the sword over ‘gospel truth’ gaffe which I thought was best summed up with even the honest ones find it hard to lie straight in bed. Whichever way you look at it the next federal election will be a brutal contest, won or lost in Queensland which I don’t necessarily agree with as this election is about money – Rudd’s budget trick: pie in the sky when you die.

Much is being said about what is happening in the Australian property markets so let’s attempt to clear the picture. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released Recent Developments in the Housing Market and its Financing by Luci Ellis Head of Financial Stability Department – now that would be one tough job. “Housing is a big deal. It’s the biggest purchase most of us will make. It’s an asset class worth almost $4 trillion, accounting for around 60 per cent of household assets in Australia. Loans to buy property account for nearly 90 per cent of all household debt and around 40 per cent of the assets of Australian banks and other deposit – takers.”

Now it gets interesting as “housing prices in Australia have more than recovered from their small decline in 2008. In the first three months of 2010, prices were growing quite smartly.”

Demand – side Drivers

Unprecedented low interest rates marinated with Government policies of First Home Buyer Grants where the RBA has raised the cash rate by +0.25 per cent from six of its last seven meetings. The HIA/Commonwealth Bank survey of first – home buyer affordability dropped four per cent in the March quarter to its lowest since the September quarter of 2008. HIA senior economist Ben Phillips predicted that the RBA’s  interest rate rises in April and May would probably see housing affordability sink to the record lows of 2007 when mortgage rates rose above 9 per cent.

The First Home Owners Grant was introduced in July 2000; the Australian quarterly weighted average median house price was $220,443. The Australian weighted average median house price in the most recent quarter for which data is available, December 2009, was $514,599.

With interest I read this week in the Macquarie Economics Research Report

• The RBA recently upgraded its medium – term inflation forecasts to three per cent, which suggests that there is certainly more work to do regarding the tightening of monetary policy in this cycle.
• As a result, we expect that the RBA will recommence tightening later in the year, taking the cash rate to 5.00 per cent by the end of 2010 and 6.00 per cent by the end of 2011.

That  said, I would  like to hear its views given that Wayne Swan predicted (in current budget papers) that it would remain around 2.5 per cent in 2011. I will make a prediction of 3.5 per cent for the June 2010 quarter, 4.2 per cent for the September quarter 2010 and 5.0 per cent for December quarter 2010. Who would have thought double – digit inflation a possibility?

The Role of the Supply Side

“Together with these demand – side drivers, the supply side is important. The supply of housing is always going to be quite sluggish: most of it is already there. The additional amount of new supply is inherently small relative to the stock.”

Bear in mind banks on global hunt for $ 125 billion where pre global financial crisis long – term funding used by the major banks to finance mortgages, personal loans and business credit will have to be replaced at much higher prices between now and September next year. This signals that the cost of money is getting more expensive, rents will go through the roof and we expect vacancy rates to hit all time lows. Brace yourself for some financial turbulence ahead.

Property market clues are RBA warns lenders and borrowers to be prudent combined with top homes take double time to sell a natural response given the economic environment. With the Aussie dollar in freefall as our share market smashed down to lowest in nine months which is certainly not helped as European and Japanese investors are selling down due to Fort Fumble’s new mining tax which is significantly affecting the sovereign risk of Australia – the huge bear raid on Australia.

Here is a classic example of why our property markets performed so differently during the global financial crisis. With subprime, the banks in America could not chase on default.  In Australia they can – with vigour and dire consequences, otherwise  known as bankruptcy.

The Financial Stability Perspective

“Even if household balance sheets were to become overstretched to some extent, historical experience suggests that this, on its own, is unlikely to pose significant risk to Australia’s financial system.

“If we focus on the group of households with debt that have higher repayment burdens and high loan – to – valuation ratios, we can see that their numbers have risen over time. But overall percentage has remained very low. This was true even in late 2008, the latest available data, when mortgage interest rates, and thus repayments, were at their peak.”

The Key Role of Lending Standards

“Only a minority of recent home loan borrowers started with a loan – to – valuation ratio above 90 per cent. First home buyers have long faced greater risk than more established home owners who have more equity in their home.” This was clearly evidenced in Mosman during the global financial crisis where ‘mortgagee in possession’ sales could be counted on just two hands (with spare fingers).

This is definitely not a time to be carrying high debt ratios given all that is happening globally and yes, the cost of money is going up due to unprecedented sovereign debt collapses.

Memo to: The Emperor

Subject: Resource Super Profit Tax (RSPT)

We are faced with market suicide – “mining tax ‘contagion’ set to spread globally your resources tax was not designed to frighten, but investors may be scared anyway.  Just take a look at what is happening to the Aussie dollar whacked as debt crisis bites. The global financial crisis not over yet, just delayed so stop upsetting the mining companies and let them – (not you) lead this great nation back down the road to recovery. We need them in Australia – not out of it!

Welcome home – Jessica Watson.  Can you tell The Emperor, that no other Prime Minister has ever sailed solo around the world (clue) and a Pink Lady awaits him for his voyage.

The Real Estate Institute of NSW has just announced that it has secured an undertaking from Barry O’Farrell that he will repeal the ad valorem tax should the NSW Liberals and Nationals be elected in the upcoming state election.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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21.05.10Robert Simeon17 Comments »

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With interest, I noted that Fort Fumble (Federal Government) released its Henry Tax Review – Australia’s future tax system just hours before the Logies and just two days before Reserve Bank of Australia announced rates rise again. Here is what governor Glenn Stevens had to say Monetary Policy Decision.

Much like the decision to withdraw its disastrous and totally incompetent Home Insulation program which again, was conveniently announced just 30 minutes after Torah Bright won gold at the Vancouver Winter Olympics in the half pipe. As they say timing is everything! Tempers flare as Wayne Swan clashes with shock jock on air this was Gold. Then Rudd lied to us, say insulation installers in Parliament house protest. “In February the Prime Minister met a group of installers protesting outside Parliament House in Canberra and said he would restart the home insulation program by June 1.” Alas, “Courageous Kev” Rudd to defy Senate request to give evidence on home insulation program – snakes and ladders?

The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) is now running with just three policies Health, Henry and the Building Education Revolution (BER) as the rest have now (conveniently) been placed in his growing recycle bin. Both Health and Henry are less than one month old and the BER is copping plenty of flak audit slams Rudd’s primary school building program expect that to be binned also. These decisions are not just a case of ‘missing in action’, rather, policies with distractions which sends a clear message that our elected Federal Labor Government requires more stimulus to its own intelligece quotient. BER audit finds problem but ‘value for money’ of individual projects outside scope… surprise surprise. The Mad Monk (Tony Abbott) also marked the report BER delivers a fail mark.

Having been in receipt of the Henry Tax Review since late December 2009 (five months later) and Fort Fumble does it again – Did Kev and Wayne even read Ken’s Review? On Business Spectator Alan Kohler wrote It’s politics, not reform “It is a great document – probably the best tax review ever produced in this country. Amazingly, the government has almost ignored it. After five months of leaking and spinning since the report was handed to him. The Treasurer has picked up exactly 1.75 of its 138 recommendations, or a bit over 1 per cent.” Total: 1.75 accepted; 136.25 rejected or put off without any transparency. Why, am I not surprised? Rudd’s election rebate where the Henry Review brings higher superannuation, small business changes but no tax fit. Henry tax review dumped into the dustbin then Terry McCann’s explanation “Kevin Rudd is running scared – clammy palms, hair bristling on the back of his neck, whole body shivering: scared, scared, scared.”

Now it gets even more interesting – “rather than release flagged changes on savings tax and simplifying tax returns, the Government has saved those changes to release later in the year, most likely to use in the run – up to this year’s federal election.” Wayne Swan leaves door open to more tax hits from Henry tax review – From the mines to the banks, The Emperor’s ‘fat tax’ grab goes on.

BUY PRINT

Charlie Aitken wrote on Under the Southern Cross “Robin Rudd and his merry men; banks will be next; switch to the USA. I just believe Australian banks have a giant target painted on them and as we get closer to an Australian Federal election later this year that Robin Rudd and his merry men will announce some sort of super tax on bank profits. I am very, very suspicious that the bank sector avoided any sort of punishment in the Henry Review. Ask yourself what the biggest vote winner in Australia is? Yep, you guessed it taxing banks.” Such a move to tax would remove bonuses which in turn would decimate top – end property markets. Australia is now entering the Rudd Financial Crisis – nothing achieved when policies deceive.

On Business Spectator Alan Kohler wrote Rudd’s mask is off “Kevin Rudd has done something unforgiveable in politics, and he will not be forgiven either by his party or the electorate. He has allowed the disguise to fall.” Then “the latest effort is the Resources Super Profits Tax – a national embarrassment. Those who don’t even understand why it’s a bad tax are asking: why do we need the money? We understand the need for the community to get a fair share etc, but Australia is the best performing economy in the world, so what have you guys done with all the money that you jeopardise our most successful industry to raise more?”  And “there will now be an early election – probably July. What does Kevin Rudd stand for? He is becoming an opposition leader in government, simply opposing the other side and engaged in nothing but marketing.”

The Emperor should be cleaning up his own backyard first – Kevin Rudd’s Department of Hot Air costing taxpayers $90 million. Hi – ho, hi – ho it’s off to health he goes! Australia went into euphoric celebration mode when Julia Gillard announced: Rudd will lead Labor to election. Making unpopular decisions part of my job: Rudd obviously The Emperor has policies confused with performance. In time we get the nasties – but not just yet so have a listen to what John Stone had to say to Alan Jones on 2GB about the Henry Tax Review.

Mining tax like communist policy – Palmer on Australia’s greatest ever tax reform all 1.75 per cent. This comment on Crikey by Niall Clugston, grabbed my attention. “While the criticism of Kevin Rudd’s caution is fair, the contrast with the 1980(s) is exaggerated. The Hawke – Keating reforms were part of a global crusade of privatisation and deregulation spearheaded by the Iron Lady, Margaret Thatcher. Today there is no sweeping change of economic orthodoxy. Nor is the Pale Imitator who inhabits the Lodge likely to receive any international guidance from the incompetently honest Gordon Brown or the temporary messiah, Barack Obama.” Ouch!

Again on Business Spectator Robert Gottliebsen wrote A mammoth capital strike looms “At this stage it’s just private words to selected journalists and few decisions have been made, but Australia is on the brink of the greatest capital strike in its history and one of the largest ever seen in the world. In the vicinity of $100 billion of resource projects that were almost certain to go ahead are now headed for mothballing until the resources tax is either abandoned or severely modified. If the private words to me and other journalists are converted to action and a new mining capital strike is launched, then almost certainly Kevin Rudd will not win the next election. The economies of Queensland, WA and South Australia would be decimated.” And finally “and in the middle, we have a series of blunders led by insulation and education building and botched emissions trading scheme. Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them.”

Based on a capital strike trade deficit surges to more than $2bn where Australia’s trade balance remained in deficit for 11 straight months, a strike would be of catastrophic proportions.

Aussies go cold on Kevin Rudd with industry predictions that The Emperor’s resource tax will kill the golden goose prompting our miners fury at double tax burden. Coalition MPs will decide stance on mining tax next week which will be interesting given admirers suffer a Rudd awakening.

As quick as a flash first miner scraps project on tax concerns a fait accompli given logic and political reality collide. But, what about super idea, but hardly tax reform back to Business Spectator – Twiggy’s root and branch shakedown. “The sharemarket has delivered a brutal assessment of who it thinks were the winners and losers from the Henry tax review – and mining entrepreneurs are in the gun. A staggering $12 billion was wiped off the value of Australian mining shares.” Australia has moved from the global financial crisis to a Rudd financial crisis. You can trust politicians … to do exactly what’s best for them then “I’m going and now I’m back” Malcolm Turnbull wrote Memo to Sir Kevin: a brave decision, Prime Minister and where it hurts us all Super hit by resources sell – off and Rio Tinto shelves billions in projects. Common sense prevails Coalition to oppose mining profits tax.

Julia Gillard denies misleading parliament on BER cost blowout another $1.700 billion now needs to be found as it was underfunded based on the initial $12.400 billion allocation. Much of the work is yet to start – auditor rocks basis of BER stimulus boost. Obviously, a distraction as Gillard denies eyeing Rudd’s job. It just gets worse!

Property markets too have been in the spotlight this week.

Housing market will implode warns Edward Chancellor Edward is no relation to the Sydney Morning Herald property editor Jonathan Chancellor. Australia is in the midst of an unsustainable housing bubble that could burst at any time, warns the man who predicted the global credit bust of 2007. We will see busts in the First Home Buyers Grant (otherwise known as the First Home Sellers Grant) as they buy back when mortgage defaults escalate due to rising cash rates. Another rate rise, another blow for PM and economists warn that more pain is on the way – the raw nerve being rate rise to crush 90,000 families.
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Not wasting any time the big four banks match Reserve’s rate rise and the housing industry blast RBA rate rise obviously they are not observing Australia’s inflation genie. Then the obvious Rudd attacks interest rate hikes by ‘greedy’ banks –  of course he is not. Although, he is on the springboard about to attempt yet another back flip as he may capitulate to miners appropriate that he is digging Australia into an almighty hole.

The most naive commentary of the week banks safe from govt tax torch, Westpac: dumb and dumber. In just over twelve months, Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan, Lindsay Tanner and Julia Gillard have transformed a A$19.700 billion surplus into a A$32.100 billion deficit and 2010 is an election year. The majority of policies are now languishing in their much owned, self – imposed recycle bin.

Incompetence personified – where the inheritance went down the gurgler in the blink of an eye!

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Next week, (unless Fort Fumble has another policy implosion) we will explain why the cash rate still has another 2.00 per cent of increases ahead. A clue: Fort Fumble and Fort Crumble contuinue to inflate that inflation genie. Tell us what you think on the blog – is The Emperor right with his Resources Super Profits Tax? Will he be re-elected or will he end up in his recycle bin too?

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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7.05.10Robert Simeon8 Comments »