We have been waiting all year for the Mosman housing market to mount a formidable challenge to the market – this week it’s officially game – on. Three weeks ago there were 115 houses on the market, last week it increased to 133, this week on Domain it has jumped to 147 which is the highest number of houses we have seen throughout 2011. Given Mosman has (approximately) 4,900 houses,  is approximately (actually just under) 5 per cent of the total volume which is the exact target number and where the market should be under normal market trade conditions.

Next week’s inflation numbers will determine the RBA’s next rate move – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has had a difficult task in 2011 balancing the cash rate given its projections that Australia faces elevated inflation over 2011, 2012 and 2013. So a string of good data might stop RBA from cutting rates: Economists although the “subdued”state of the housing market identified that prices had fallen 3 per cent over the year to August. So our housing destiny takes shape where it should be noted that we’re the richest nation on earth, according to a Credit Suisse report.

The Credit Suisse report also notes the European sovereign debt crisis is not expected to stop a new generation of millionaires emerging in the next five years, with the greatest wealth growth likely to occur in the booming Asia – Pacific (that would be Australia.)

BUY PRINT

We sent our Virtual Realty News eye in the sky Tim Mooney to capture The Trots given Hot to trot: latest inner west housing development a ‘game changer’. The Harold Park venue for the trots is  about to become one of Sydney’s largest inner–city housing developments – 1,250 new prestige apartments and terraces that will push up property prices (great news for the property markets). Mirvac is developing the site and will also be creating a 20 – hectare green belt linking Bicentennial Park to Blackwattle Bay.

Uncertainty clouds start of spring auction season grabbed my attention when the Westpac – Melbourne Institute quarterly house price expectation index fell to 9 in October, from a reading of 15.3 in the three months to July. This was its lowest level since May 2009, with doubts about the housing market lingering. This is a national measure so with interest, I noted that 38.7 per cent see prices rising in the next twelve months and 31.5 per cent see them unchanged. Almost one – third (29.8 per cent) predicted falls over the next year, so 70.2 per cent see prices increasing or remaining steady over the next twelve months. Quite funny that real estate is a long term hold not a short term play which was recently evidenced with the reality price failures of The Block and The Renovators on television.

Even the ‘World’s Greatest Treasurer’ was drawn into the debate with Wayne Swan telling the ABC that he doesn’t agree with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report which indicates Australia’s house prices are overvalued by ten to fifteen per cent. The RBA has plenty of room to move on Australia’s cash rate which presently sits at 4.75 per cent. Last week SQM Research disclosed that Australia has 362,793 houses for sale – Mosman contributed just 133 which was an increase of 24.3 per cent on the same time last year.

The last Census report in 2007 identified that in Australia, thirty per cent rent, so it was interesting to read the Australian Property Monitors – Rental Report where only Sydney recorded growth in unit median weekly asking prices for the quarter of 2.2 per cent.

Lower North Shore has it all for renters – but at a cost as rents soar in major cities as Sydney rents rocket by 13 per cent: report.We have a population in the fastest growth mode yet residential building down 5.3 per cent in June in  quarter. So do the mathematics about supply V demand.  It’s simple and a no – brainer. So Australia’s greatest property pest Steve Keen is back at it again – Property prices to fall 20% by 2013 yer’s end: Steve Keen. A property guru who sold his $500,000 (plus a bit) apartment on South Dowling Street based on his global financial crisis predictions that property prices would fall by 40 per cent back on September 2008.   In my opinion, in Australia, he is the court jester of real estate, but given the Sydney rental data we have published, he has in all probability decided to buy back in?

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 115
• Number of houses on the market this week – 133
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 78
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 86

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 16
• Number of houses on the market this week – 15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 34
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 36

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 15
• Number of houses on the market this week – 17
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 80
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 83

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate - Click Here

I have gone easy on Julia Gillard’s Fort Fumble or should that read Fort F*&! – up as the political hit has been arranged – it’s a Right mess for Julia Gillard as Labor factions fight. The powerful NSW Right which also destroyed NSW has allegedly activated another political assassination. Ironic they had the terminal finger on the trigger to remove Kevin Rudd and they now intend to do the same to their anointed replacement.

History shows that Australia’s property markets respond much better under the alternate government – maybe property buyers should read into that?

Cheers ^__^

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21.10.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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Although the same can’t be said for Julia Gillard’s Fort Fumble – Malaysia solution backfires for government that failed to do its homework. If Kevin Rudd “lost his way”, Julia Gillard’s reign as Australian Prime Minister has been nothing short of an abysmal failure. The Labor government is spiralling uncontrollably on a course of self destruction – déjà vu NSW Labor March election 2011. The stench of failure haunts the ALP where many believe that it will be open season for people smugglers after High Court scuttles Gillard government’s Malaysian Solution. The clock is ticking with a Labor stalwart predicting ten months and Labor’s gone: Richardson.

Julia Gillard not only unpopular, she also lacks authority – John Howard the Prime Minister will now struggle to remain at The Lodge post Christmas. Peter Costello entered the economic discussion this week when he wrote in The Sydney Morning Herald – Without a carbon tax, steel industry jobs might stand a chance. Looking forward, I believe that at this point in time a carbon tax will struggle to see the light of day. It is a case of simply joining the dots given Treasury warned in 2009 of higher Aussie dollars likely impact on manufacturing which in all probability would explain why the government rejects calls for manufacturing probe.

The greatest problem with the Gillard government is that it is politically deaf! To such an extent that Rudd last man standing in Labor rout: poll where Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd would be the only federal Labor MP left in Queensland if an election was held this week. Which got a bit more interesting given former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie will consider a run for Prime Minister. So, Beattie for PM? Gillard laughs it off.

BUY PRINT

Sydney housing property defies national downturn to record price increase RP Data Rismark Home Value Index found defies national downturn to where over the year to July, values in capital cities are down 2.9 per cent. Brisbane – 6.6 per cent, Perth – 6.3 per cent, Melbourne – 4.3 per cent, while Canberra + 1.9 per cent and Sydney + 0.5 per cent which explains why, home loans grow at slowest pace on record. In Sydney we are really witnessing fascinating market machinations where last weekend, Sydney had 362 auctions (down nearly twenty per cent on the same time last year).

Vendors aren’t selling which has led to rents increasing by up to eight per cent over the year an expected result with record low vacancy rates. Urban Taskforce CEO Aaron Gadiel estimates Sydney’s housing supply shortfall at 46,000 homes and predicts it will double within three years.  “We’ve seen three straight months where NSW private sector home approvals have trended down by more than 4 per cent a month.”

The slowing market convincing home owners to stay put which is actually a positive sign where Mosman has the lowest delinquency rate in NSW. Which takes me to a great debate over at Property Observer between Steve Keen and Christopher Joye, when Keen wrote, China our one saving grace as Australia’s debt- driven love affair with house prices faces the chopping block. Christopher Joye responded housing prices aren’t for the chopping block, despite the Steve Keen prophecy. As Christopher Joye points out – “Like most of Keen’s predictions, such as the “best – case scenario’’ during the GFC being 11 per cent unemployment and a recession “more severe than 1990 and lasting 1.5 times as long” (unemployment peaked at 5.8 per cent while there was no recession), his 2008 predictions proved way wide of the mark. For the record, Australian dwelling prices are today 13.3 per cent higher than the level at which Keen put his reputation on the chopping block, and 89 per cent higher than the level at which Keen expected them to be.

MOSMAN – 2088

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 105
• Number of houses on the market this week – 107
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 99
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 93

CREMORNE – 2090

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 13
• Number of houses on the market this week – 14
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 31

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 7
• Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 70
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 67

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here It is interesting to note from the past week’s activity that we are starting to see activity above the $5,000,000 mark again.

I was amazed to read Federal MP Rob Oakeshott says Australia should consider a road congestion tax when the reason why we have congestion is because governments have failed to spend on road/transport infrastructure. Obviously, he did not read the article I filed this week on Property Observer – Stupid property taxes should not be a revenue stream for weak governments.

Source: The Australian

Cheers ^__^

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2.09.11Robert Simeon5 Comments »

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The Australian economy is booming with the good news this week from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) that our gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6 per cent (seasonally adjusted). There were no downward GDP revisions for the March quarter which remained at 0.4 per cent and I fail to understand why the global financial crisis (GFC) is still being compared to the worst global economic downturn since the Great Depression. The recession of the early nineties plays it off a break, but the early nineties could hardly be described as global either. Unemployment this time didn’t climb to eleven plus per cent (5.8 per cent as at July) and interest rates today remain at 49 year lows.

‘The Punch’ (another great online read) – Clive Mathieson wrote, What Recession? “What a lovely recession we’re having. Or not having”. I do agree however, with the school of thought that we will see some economic tremors along the way and this is inevitable given the sudden impact of the GFC.

Just like the Y2K computer scare – remember that? A global electronic meltdown was predicted when we moved from 31 December 1999 to 1 January 2000, over concerns that (to save computer disk and memory space), computer softwares were using two digits to represent a year (98 instead of 1998). For example the difference between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 1999 could be calculated as -100 years as against one day. On the stroke of midnight on 31 December 1999 it was predicted that this computer bug would see businesses and industry decimated and we would see planes falling from the sky. On the stroke of midnight, planes flew, fireworks went off over Sydney Harbour and computers worked fine.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Alan Kohler wrote another wonderful article “Bulls at the Gate” on his Business Spectator website. “But Australia’s June quarter GDP is important for two reasons: it confirms that Australia has not had a recession at all, and indeed the economy has now expanded for 18 consecutive years; and secondly it will help ensure that business and consumer confidence remains strong.”

As quick as a flash Wayne Swan announced that our economic growth (Australia has been the best performing advanced economy over the past year) was a result of the stimulus. Earlier in the week he said that opposition treasury spokesman, Joe Hockey, must be “deaf, dumb and blind – if he thinks the Government’s economic stimulus is not working.”

I did like this comment “There are tradies all over the country who are working on stimulus projects. It’s adding to confidence in a way that we don’t see anywhere else in the world.” True Wayne – but other countries are actually in recession – we’re not! Then we had some economic speak from the King of Spin, Ruddy Fantastic, who said “The figures (GDP) that have been released today indicate that we’ve got a long way to go when it comes to economic recovery.” Translated, that means we have a long way to go to get his budget into surplus again.

Leo Shanahan penned this beauty in The Punch “Rudd’s secret spending freeze: no soup for you”

Whilst on long roads, spare a thought for the Y2K equivalent of Australian economics Steve Keen who, in my opinion, irresponsibly predicted on nearly every available media outlet, that Australian house prices would fall by 40 per cent and unemployment would shoot through the roof to “depressionary” levels. This prompted Rory Robertson (interest rate strategist) to jump from the factory floor at Macquarie Bank to bet Steve Keen that if his predictions proved correct he would walk from Canberra to Mount Kosciusko. To read about the bet, Business Spectator filed this story by economist Christopher Joye – “Let the Kosciusko march begin” For the record, Rory Robertson was spot – on with his GFC commentaries.

This takes me to the cash rate which remained on hold when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), met this week and decided to leave it at 3.00 per cent. The cash rate has remained at 3.00 per cent for five consecutive months and next month, I predict it will move to 3.25 per cent – the cost of bank funding is going up not down.

Rory Robertson has also predicted a 25bp increase on October 6 based on the latest data identifying a strong rise in house prices. He wrote “With the RBA reportedly keen to start tightening its loosest – ever policy stance at the earliest – available opportunity, the combination of (a) rising GDP (b) a brighter investment picture and, now (c) stronger growth in house prices, might well prove irresistible. The “economic emergency” clearly is over, “nipped in the bud” by early timely and forceful monetary – and fiscal – policy action.”

I believe he may have been referring to the July RP Data – Rismark Hedonic Index results that revealed Australian home values are now 1.8 per cent above their previous peak in February 2008. The intrigue is building for our Mosman markets given we have record high rents and record low levels of stock – better known as a heated market. Stay tuned.

Quite amazing that should the RBA increase the cash rate next month, it would be moving in a totally different direction to Fort Fumble – Ruddy Fantastic’s empire! That’s it! Ruddy Fantastic is out and now he will be called The Emperor – given his ‘sweet and sour’ patterns of behaviour.

Spare a thought for ‘big’ Johnny Della Bonka at Fort Crumble, where we saw the battered draw bridge rise (figuratively speaking). This prompted a vote of no confidence by the opposition in parliament this week – which failed. Our elected NSW government failed to produce yet another leadership challenge by the Bonka. Watch Frank “cranky” Sartor exercise his recently acquired power- play: the funnier side of politics where the patients challenge the asylum. The Emperor is far from impressed.

This week, Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) released another great online application for our clients – ‘Mohbe’ – mobile phone real estate. Mohbe allows real estate agencies to have their own agency branded mobile phone website for their property listings. The mobile phone websites are viewable through any mobile phone which has an Internet browser and access to the Internet. RWM is Mohbe’s first client in NSW to offer this application. Take a test drive www.mohbe.com/124232

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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4.09.09Robert SimeonNo Comments »

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The Australian real estate market is an amazing landscape of media commentaries that although initially, in the limelight, have now been be deemed unreliable. Of course the manipulation of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has led to a media storm where hired guns are in retreat – and licking (terminal) media wounds. So I could not resist the temptation to re-visit the human headlines relating to our real estate industry since the onset of the GFC.

As Alan Kay once said “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”

Before the swine flu, real estate markets were subjected to unrelenting forecasts that simply never came to fruition – enter Professor Steve Keen (no doubt humming the words of “Climb every Mountain”) the King of property forecast bloopers. On November 28, 2008 Keen predicted zero interest rates within two years and a forty (40) per cent drop in house prices within five years (double the drop in the United States). Macquarie Bank interest rate strategist, Rory Robertson, declared that “Dr Keen’s gloomy predictions of an Australian housing market plunge had a one per cent chance of being right.” This then prompted Robertson to challenge Keen that the loser would wear a T-shirt saying “I was hopelessly wrong on home prices! Ask me how.” And make a 200km trek from Canberra to Mt Kosciusko. For the record Rory Robertson thus far, has been spot – on with his market predictions.

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Tim Mooney Photography – Manly beach back to Sydney CBD

timmooneyphotography.com
www.sydneywaterfronts.com

When the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met this week, it was prediction time. What would it do with the official cash rate? It didn’t go to zero but remained (for the third month in a row) at three (3) per cent. Whilst the RBA has strong concerns with unemployment, inflation is the growing concern (as I predicted in last week’s edition). RBA governor, Glenn Stevens, said, “The Board’s current view is that the outlook for inflation allows some scope for further easing of monetary policy, if needed.”

The TD – Securities/Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose 0.4 per cent in June, following an 0.3 per cent fall in May and no change in April. Annual inflation (measured by the gauge) identified that the rate in May was 1.5 per cent. The RBA’s target range is to contain inflation between 2 to 3 per cent. The inflation accelerants to watch will be petrol, food and household rents which are repeat offenders in the Australian economy.

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Figures released this week by The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that, for the eighth month in a row, real estate buyers took out 2.2 per cent more home loans in May (up again from the 0.9 per cent April figures). It should also be noted, that first – home buyers increased from 28.6 percent in April, to 29.5 per cent in May. The Federal Government’s first – home owner’s grant is a concern (another prediction, another story and another day).

The one thing missing from our markets (until June) has been confidence so it came as little surprise to see consumer confidence surging in July to its highest level in eighteen months. The Westpac – Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment rose in the month to 109.4 points, seasonally adjusted. The index in July was up 38.5 per cent from a year ago, prompting Westpac Banking chief economist to announce “This is unquestionably a stunning result.” On the back of our $61, 238,200 sales last month, it would be reasonable to suggest that we are not witnessing predictions, rather market affirmations – with no conspiracy theories.

Of greater concern is the continuing decline in construction where house building contracted for seventeen (17) consecutive months in June. Detached home sales decreased by 9.9 per cent in NSW which is based on delayed projects and difficult credit conditions. Too hard for our elected politicians to fathom – even though they launched ‘Nation Building’. Simply put, you can’t put a plaque on a house although you can on a school or a hospital. It is abundantly clear that Ruddy Fantastic has stuffed this up and many are calling Nation Building ‘Plaque Building’ – ah egos at work!

One prediction I did make some time ago was that Google (the online bible) would enter the Australian property market and take on www.domain.com.au and www.realestate.com.au with a free service. Google launched Google Maps at 3.00 pm on Monday this week and the exclusive announcement can be read at www.business2.com.au I have uploaded the video Google release for your perusal or you can see for yourself by clicking on http://maps.google.com.au/

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) is ranked at number one on Google for Mosman real estate searches. I just love it when a plan comes together!

Fort Crumble (NSW government) has been active in the real estate market busily selling our police stations to off-set mismanagement and dwindling coffers. Nine police stations (including Mosman) and another 200 buildings and parcels of land, including the Sydney Fish Market, are now being listed and sold by Fort Crumble’s real estate agent (not RWM). Obviously our inept premier expects our police officers to work from home to keep overheads down.

The unemployment rate was announced this week with a moderate rise, to see 0.1 ppt to 5.8 per cent (prediction 5.9 per cent) NSW (6.5%), Victoria (6.0%), Qld (5.4%), WA (5.1%), SA (5.4%)and Tasmania (4.7%).

A prediction on NSW labor being re-elected? No hindsight required however, there is always the Hope Factor. Many subscribers would have seen television advertorials boasting contributions to a building and jobs creation programme for the state of NSW (another huge tax payer cost). The alternative is to give away our state assets simply because those involved were not intelligent enough to manage our economy in the first place.

It’s no wonder NSW leads Australia in bankruptcy when our very own elected government is staring down the barrel of a Part X agreement.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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10.07.09Robert Simeon4 Comments »