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Rob is still on holiday and we are one week away from The Great One’s return. Ah! It’s been so peaceful and there is not too much real estate news to talk about since Richard’s report last week, so this will be short and sweet!

As I write, we are aware that the stock market has fallen around 4% this morning, on the back of the American fall overnight.    News from Europe is grim and this is reflected in consumer confidence. We are now a saving nation not a spending one.   The banks are having the biggest influx of funds into their savings accounts, in 30 years.

With the strong Aussie dollar, figures announced today say that 1.5million  more Aussies went overseas for trips than tourists coming in;  asure sign that the high dollar is affecting all parts of our economy!

Now in  past decades, when the stock market went down, the Real Estate market went up.    This hasn’t been the case for (probably) the last 10 years when the Stock Market became the be all and end all of investment funds.

However, I sense a change. The unit market in the $400k to $1m range has been quite strong for some home buyers and investors.

Stock levels are still low in the housing department, with prices fluctuating on a weekly basis, pending press reports.  But overall, steady at the lower end and more fragile at the top end, although great homes still get great prices.

Trading in the same market is the key and there are definitely some bargain buys around in the market if you keep your ear close to the ground.

I won’t bore you with any more rhetoric or theory on real estate. There is so much information to read on a daily basis already and I don’t want to steal Rob’s thunder for next week.

BUY PRINT

On a different note, Mosman news this week was all about the Bomb Threat in Clifton Gardens.  Great news that Maddy is safe and well, as is the Pulver family after this most horrific incident.

Our thoughts go out to the whole family, who are great people well known to most of us here, the local footy club and local schools.

While on the local scene, we wish the Junior clubs we support, Mosman Swans AFL, Mosman Netball, and Mosman Junior Hockey all the best for their semi-finals which are fast approaching.

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

That’s all folks - see you at the opens….

Steve

Principal

5.08.11Stephen Patrick1 Comment »

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We keep hearing when the “going gets tough the tough get going” so you could be excused from thinking anytime soon that our luck has changed (for the better). A stark reality of the global financial crisis (GFC) has been the over reliant business concept where the hope factor remained the dominant strategy moving forward – trying hard and out of luck. No better example than that of our politicians where today, their decision making process is directed by polls as against policies.

The GFC was actually a great measure for businesses and governments although they responded in totally opposite directions. Businesses paid down debt and governments amassed debt which should not come as a great surprise as one is personal debt over other people’s debt. As a result of the GFC two words spring to mind: communication and infrastructure which is what I believe will be the key business strategies moving forward and succeeding in 2011 and beyond.

In that perfect world put simply: if we have every intended purchaser and vendor on our database (communication and infrastructure) we would be one of the most successful businesses on the entire planet – today we (most) strive in business to deliver the perfect consumer model. Just another part of life’s ongoing business challenges – so many businesses ignore and fight online which is now our future. No point fighting it – work it, use it and more importantly dominate it as it reciprocates one hundred fold (plus).

BUY PRINT

Our thanks to Tim Mooney for again spoiling us in 2010 with his amazing aerial captures which are simply breathtaking and most often mind boggling. Many subscribers contacted Tim throughout the year requesting aerial shots of their respective homes – they make for sensational Christmas cards.

Another fascinating year in Australian politics – a federal election, hung parliament, cross deals, resignations, scandals and the sacking of the Prime Minister. We pretty well had it all and more. Next March NSW is off to the polls as Fort Crumble limps to its final days make that 19: NSW Labor resignations which is unprecedented in Australian political history. A Christmas wish as Premier ‘Bambi ‘Keneally begs for a second chance despite revelations this week that $350 million wasted on Metro, audit reveals then insisting that when she dumped the Metro  the money had not been wasted. Oh dear!

Congratulations to our very own Steve Patrick and Jacqui Rowland – Smith who posted Mosman’s top sale for 2010 with the sale of Morella Road also the twelfth highest sale in Sydney for 2010. Steve also posted Mosman’s second highest sale when he sold a home in Stanley Avenue Balmoral last month – Mosman recorded four sales in Sydney’s Top 20 sales for 2010. Of interest is that sixteen (16) houses that Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) sold in 2010 set new street records – an amazing feat in a difficult market. RWM have posted Mosman’s highest recorded house sales in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

This week we set an Australian record when we posted $1 billion in subscriber sales to our online business which now sits at $1,001,770,228. Our first subscriber sale was recorded in October 2000 when we sold an apartment for $270,000 – our real estate online model is considered an Australia leader within our industry. Nobody really knew what we were trying to achieve when we rolled it out ten years ago – today it is recognised as a leading example for our industry.

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES – 2008, 2009 & 2010 A COMPARITIVE ANALYSES

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• 2008 – Total Value Sold $774,865,612
• 2009 – Total Value Sold $668,966,377
• 2010 – Total Value Sold $692,658,555*

*Still being compiled

• 2008 – Total Number Sold – 360
• 2009 – Total Number Sold – 334
• 2010 – Total Number Sold – 320*

*Still being compiled

• 2008 – Median Price $2,275,000
• 2009 – Median Price $2,000,000
• 2010 – Median Price $2,100,000*

*Still being compiled

• 2008 – Average Price $2,738,041
• 2009 – Average Price $2,397,728
• 2010 – Average Price $2,500,572*

*Still being complied

Source: Australian Property Monitors

What to watch closely in 2011?



Many thanks to the team at Macquarie Research for sharing their graphs with us in 2010

This is your final edition of Virtual Realty News for 2010 and we would like to thank you for your support in 2010. Next year will be our eleventh year of publishing Virtual Realty News and we have plenty in store for you in 2011. With each edition in 2011 we will also be launching a weekly video where we tackle what is happening with our property markets – sure to be controversial (if I get my way.) I will be endeavouring to interview as many interesting people as we can. This will be brought to you by Visual Domain our video partner with Virtual Realty Videos.

Thanks to Ryan and Peter at Agentpoint our online web developers whom I drive absolutely mad with my online impulsive disorders where we constantly dare to be different. You guys are without a doubt the best in the business and an absolute pleasure to work with.

Whilst on videos here is our Christmas video for all of our subscribers (I suggested in last week’s edition that one of our staff was at a recording studio) – it is 100 per cent his voice. So turn your volume – up and click on full screen. Our Christmas video has already been nominated for best real estate Christmas video for 2010.
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As you can see we work with a fantastic team (I think that shows) you would have observed that our family is growing. On behalf of Steve, Rich and everyone else at RWM we want to say to each and every one of you – thank you very much!

Have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year – see you again in 2011 for much, much more.



Cheers (and stop calling me Baz Lurman) ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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10.12.10Robert Simeon15 Comments »

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After all, we are in the greatest performing economy on the planet. Having sailed through and mostly ahead of the global financial crisis (GFC), our property markets once again find themselves positioned at the business–end, following a term of prolonged holding patterns. Ground conditions are perfect for take–off, with clear skies ahead and very little turbulence on the radar. Although what remains unclear, is who will be playing and who will be staying? The buzz word during the GFC was stimulus and it was merchant bankers who stimulated top–end property markets. There was no better example than Mosman, which remains the most expensive municipality (not suburb) in Australia. Bankers’ bonuses have been ‘rivers of gold’ for our bricks and mortar markets (merchant bankers remain our single largest subscribers) although their market engagement appears to have peaked in early 2008.

What is acutely clear, is that households have been actively paying down debt, instead of rolling it over and taking on more. Not that long ago, real estate agents made diary notes as to when the big banks were paying bonuses, which translated into the annual game of house trap!

Property markets move in mysterious ways (remember when the GST was introduced in 2000?). We saw property developers in Mosman gradually withdraw (especially with houses) because the additional ten per cent impacted their returns on investment and this once popular vocation became academic.

BUY PRINT

Pittwater weekenders were also very popular in the real estate indulgence markets where these properties failed the financial reconciliation of the GFC as the owners headed back home.

Another factor that needs to be considered when house values are flat, is that when additional acquisition costs (stamp duty) and selling costs are measured, vendors find themselves at breakeven. This was the norm, when purchasers were playing with additional income streams and stimulating markets with bonuses that can no longer be taken for granted. The following three graphs show the volume of stock on the market for houses and apartments in Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay, with houses showing much more consistent patterns.

MOSMAN

CREMORNE

NEUTRAL BAY

The Punch guide to our rich suburbs and big houses identifies a study conducted 2003–04 and 2007–08 which identified Mosman as having the highest average income in Australia, at $131,606 (the national average is $44,402). Considering that we are now post GFC and these results are more than two years old, it will be interesting to see if there are any significant changes to Sydney’s wealthiest the richest in the land.

Confidence has always provided the much needed oxygen to all financial markets so overseas travellers would be happy this week, to see the dollar bounces as economy worries fade. The question many are asking is ‘will confidence remain sky high’? Consumers turn cautious as outlooks clouds when the Westpac and Melbourne Institute released its index this week which showed that consumer sentiment fell 5 per cent in September to 113.2.

The consumer sentiment must have been taken before Julia Gillard announces cabinet which is just in time as parliament resumes in two weeks. The broadband debate will be riveting given Tony Abbott picks Turnbull to ‘demolish’ Gillard’s broadband plan. I wonder if he read skills shortage threatens Gillard’s NBN pledge when it was revealed the regional rollout could face a skills shortage. “The Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union estimates around 7,000 now have the competency to work on the NBN’s construction, but 25,000 technicians will be needed each year to build and operate the network over the period of its construction.” In the meantime, The Emperor is off to the USA for a sleepover at the White House and here are the other cabinet members.

The big banking announcement of the week was Basel III agreement announced. Global regulators are enforcing rules for banks to hold top–quality capital totalling seven per cent of their risk bearing assets (up from two per cent) to prevent any repeat of the recent international credit crisis. Australian banks are unfazed by tough new rules given they already qualify, with the ANZ sitting on 11.1 per cent, Commonwealth Bank 10.1 per cent, NAB 9.4 per cent and Westpac 8.6 per cent according to Deutsche Bank figures. Our banks are jumping back into the property market as lenders back throwing cash at buyers although our property bubble is too fit to burst. ‘A report last week from Moody’s Investor Service found that delinquency rates are still very low. For example 30+ days – past due delinquencies were 1.34 per cent in June compared to 1.39 per cent in May. That means that less than 2 per cent of loans are falling into arrears of 30 or more days past the due date’.

As stated previously, many Australian households are pre–paying their mortgages. Major banks report that over 55 per cent of mortgagees are ahead on their payment schedule, with 40 per cent, by more than a year. What a pity that U.S.A. banks were not in that position when subprime hit!

Here is a great one on one interview by our very own Steve Patrick with Glen Spratt from Mortgageport.

This video was produced by visualdomain

This week, we celebrated the 10th anniversary of the Sydney Olympic Games. Coincidentally, we celebrated the 10th birthday of Virtual Realty News. Ten years ago, when I sent out our first edition, it went to 38 subscribers (we still have a few of these originals) and look where we are today – $956,784,220 in online subscriber sales and Australia’s longest and most successful online newsletter. I am proud to say that over that time we have never missed a single edition. We have quite a few new initiatives in store and will be working very closely with visualdomain to produce fortnightly/monthly (still working that out) video editions of Virtual Realty News for those who don’t want to read them. Stay tuned for many more real estate industry firsts!

All will be revealed soon.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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17.09.10Robert Simeon4 Comments »

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Excellent one on one interview where Steve Patrick interviews Glen Spratt from Mortgageport about the state of the market regarding the local home loan market. The interview discusses -

• What state is the mortgage market currently?
• What trends are noticeable?
• Tell us briefly about Mortgageport
• What type of customers does Mortgageport focus on helping?

This video was produced by visualdomain

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15.09.10Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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Congratulations,

Finally we are in the Grand Final for the plate this weekend ..where we deserve to be in my opinion. To me it really is a play off for third or fourth in the main competition overall as the promotion of three teams and the wet weather completely stuffed up the points system. The good news is we win a plate if we win on Sunday.

Now … last Sunday’s game – what a great result. Only minutes before the game did we know who was fit enough to run on. The walking wounded and the sick all arriving in all forms of disrepair!

At one stage we only had 14 and looking shaky.

With Eddy still on crutches and Jock in fashionable moon boots, Alex out from a neck injury the day before, ( luckily just bruising), Mitch, Sam and Banjo all limping from bashing each other up the day before (Joey’s v Shore) and Josh climbing out of bed with a virus to help out, I was starting to think this was going to be a tough day in the Oval Office!

However, the boys all agreed that had to ramp up that little extra to overcome the adversity, Campbell took over as skipper, Will Collard stepped into Banjo’s big boots ,Oscar moved to centre Sam Harrison from back row to wing again.. so on we ran into battle.. shaken but not stirred!

As I have stated previously about Burraneer they are a very tough defensive side, I found out on Sunday nine of their boys play rugby league on Saturday, hence their great tackling defence.

We changed tactics and decided to attack down the blind side away from their crash tackling centres or chip over them in open play.

From the kick – off the boys were positive and aggressive, Balmoral Oval was hard and dusty as both sides launched into it. After a few minutes Will Collard cleverly switched play down the blind side and sent Sammy H on a run, as the defence closed he grubbered ahead… the race was on, Ben Reader was on the spot (as always) to gather the ball and race over to score. Locky  P converted from midway from the side line … Mosman up 7-0.

The forwards were right into it, Tommy was crunching them in defence and giving them grief with his usual bullocking runs. Ben Wicket continued his good form in the tight stuff his work rate better every week and making his physical presence felt, as was Hugh and Gus (these two are really hitting there straps as well now) and Josh who was running hot in form and temperature (now about 101*) .. in short the engine room were all running hot. The reason we are winning is our tight five is  dominating and giving us go forward. Well done you boys – another outstanding effort.

Joe was winning some fantastic lineout ball and making his usual thousand (in Ray Warren voice) tackles a game, and Ben Reader was mighty at the breakdown. Joe and Ben shut down Burraneer’s best dominant forward at the breakdown, as discussed prior to the game, this was a huge challenge and they rose to the occasion.

Campbell as usual was dominant all over the paddock and was having a great captains game leading by example, he was rewarded soon after with another try from our chip and chase tactics, which saw Burra reeling and now down 14-0 after the conversion next to the posts.

Burra hit back, and soon scored out wide and it was 14 -5 shortly before half time.

In the backs Oscar was having a whale of a game tackling everything that moved in midfield, Ben was doing likewise and setting up some good backline moves for Remy to chime in and give our winger Sam and Mitch a few good runs.

Locky at 5/8 was having his best game in that position varying play nicely with some kicks ,runs and slick service, but more importantly .. bringing the backs up in a good straight defensive line.

After the break, Josh was having a well earned rest, Locky Miller replaced him with fresh legs and got stuck in straight as he always does, then Banjo and Sam Allen came on to see if they could put in half a game with their crook legs as Mitch and Will (who had a great game for us filling in for Banjo) had a rest.

Both sides set off at a cracking pace again, the game tightened no team was giving an inch, the boys from Burra were not going down without a fight, but nobody messes with the Mosman 13A Whales!!

Banjo turned them around again with his clever kicking, Sam Allen had a great 50m run after a good backline move, we were playing good clever 15 man rugby everyone from Remy at fullback (still in great form) to Gus at hooker involved.

A  terrific penalty goal from Locky P put us ahead 17-5 with some breathing space, but Burra came back again, will they ever quit these guys? NO !!

After 7 straight penalties to Burra (will this Ref ever give us a break!) they scored and converted to trail Mosman 17 -12.

The boys held on to full time and thoroughly deserved their win. They showed great heart and  team spirit.

Oscar put in a great man of the Match performance closely followed by Captain Campbell, Tom the” Horton Express” and every other player deserved a wrap.

So the walking wounded made the grand final on Team Spirit,,Courage,,Neurofen,Voltaren,and lots of bandages.

To say that Jane and I are proud of this team is an understatement, all the injured boys are there every week to cheer their mates on, they play sick and injured for each other.

Remember also, many, I mean many players go their whole Rugby life and never play in a Grand Final or have a chance of winning a medal, so lets enjoy the experience and give it our best shot,win, lose or draw from here all these boys are already winners.

NOW BRING ON COLLAROY…..

Cheers

Coach

23.08.10Stephen Patrick2 Comments »

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ABC Online’s chief political writer Annabel Crabb described it as the greatest oral challenge of our generation given The Emperor’s “greatest moral challenge” no longer exists, or does it? On the menu we were forced to consume Gillard’s pork pies hard to resist then we had the hidden truth behind the PM’s ‘impromptu’ speech. The 2010 federal election spending spree based on a rigour in funding promises doesn’t count for much given we have all heard the term ‘the cheque’s in the mail’ although this Sunday, the elected party will have to face the morning after … where Treasury will start costing those policies on the run, Sydney’s Parramatta to Epping rail line will come under much greater scrutiny and the inevitable financial quarantine until the next federal election.

The most frightening policy is, without a doubt, the $43 billion (43 thousand million dollars) national broadband network which stands to become the greatest white elephant in Australian political history and the biggest financial commitment for an Australian government. Interest payments for this scheme presently stand at $4.500 million per week which prompted Malcolm Turnbull to write on Business Spectator Why the NBN will fail which prompted one comment on the blog: Thank you Malcolm. I think blind Freddy could see that can you publish it in Braille as well? The leading question: is Stephen Conroy conning us on the NBN?

Classic Tim Mooney this shot was captured last Friday when the big Southerly bringing about the cancellation of the Manly Ferries

BUY PRINT

Someone should tell Julia Gillard that the fastest growing network in Australia is wireless – tailor made for Blackberry, iPhone, iPad and laptops, none of which require cable. Latest data reveals Internet searches are the most popular online activity on mobile phones. Some 73 per cent of users conduct online searches by mobile phone now, compared with 30 per cent a year ago. This explains why we launched our mobile property website last week, a first in Mosman. (This is designed to be viewed through your mobile phone)

Gillard & Co have used the white technical elephant as the NBN ‘sandbags’ for marginal seats – we should all be very concerned about this roll- out, especially as the private sector wanted no financial involvement. In economic jargon, this equates to ‘no return on investment’.

The 2010 federal election has completely ignored housing policy initiatives, because they are too hard to fathom and here is why. Rents leap as race to find home intensifies “Forget population growth, we’re not even seeing the housing needed for existing people. There’s an extremely severe housing shortage unique to Sydney.”

Housing affordability nears record low the HIA – CBA Housing Affordability Index fell 9.1 per cent in the June quarter to be 32 per cent compared to the same period last year. HIA chief economist, Harley Dale, said ‘there has been a lack of commitment during the recent federal election campaign to address the substantial hurdles aspiring home owners face.” Then “key federal policy priorities need to include a program to reduce new housing costs such as inequitable taxes and charges, better planning approvals systems, and a dedicated federal housing and development ministry to coordinate policy across all sectors and levels of government,” Mr Dale said.

I don’t share the belief by some that housing bear warns again of bubble waiting to burst as investors who are claiming losses may leave the rental markets. According to Tax Office figures, the proportion of taxpayers who own rental property has risen from 6.5 per cent in 1989 to 13.5 per cent in 2009, two thirds of whom claim a loss on investments. The rental markets are problematic, which is why we sold our property management portfolio earlier this year, to focus on our core business which is, of course, selling properties.

Always a brilliant barometer for the Sydney top end property market is the prestige property market report by Dyson Austen Top 10 for the 2010 January – March quarter.  Our very own Steve Patrick posted the fourth biggest sale with 19 Morella Road Clifton Gardens. Seven sales were recorded in the Eastern Suburbs, two to Mosman and one to Manly – overall a positive result for the prestige property markets.

The comparative analysis from 2004 to 2010 is always fascinating where you will see that the top end is holding its own and we predict a conservative improvement in the quarters ahead. One should remember that when this end of the market starts registering anecdotal sales results, the rest of the market follows suit. We don’t foresee a boom market in the immediate future, but we do see renewed market confidence and sentiment.

Next week, we will publish the Dyson Austen Top 10 sales for the 2010 April – June quarter.

So off to the polls we go tomorrow to elect a federal government for the next three years and by all accounts, it will be close. My prediction is a narrow Tony Abbott victory simply because NSW is vehemently opposed to anything Labor – Why Labor is losing the west. NSW will only start to see rapid improvement with infrastructure when they have a Liberal prime minister and a Liberal premier which will happen in March 2011. The day Gillard stopped spinning: NSW indefensible where I’m sure she regrets her policy on the run announcement about the Parramatta to Epping rail spin which will never happen under the current regime.

Who would have thought that not since 1931, we could witness just the second incumbent government removed after just the one elected term?  Who would have thought we may witness history where two prime ministers were removed in the one term?

Maybe Australia is moving forward!  Voters in Queensland and NSW will determine the outcome.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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20.08.10Robert Simeon8 Comments »

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The 2010 federal election is all about the polls (cometh the spin) then three years on, we have more broken promises than promises that actually came to fruition. Neither party has a single blueprint for the Australian economy, nor the nation as a whole and this was classically highlighted during the global financial crisis spend– a– thon which we are told constantly, saved the Australian economy from recession. Australia’s need to invest in infrastructure, is urgent – roads, rail and ports and this is why Fort Crumble faces election annihilation when NSW goes to the polls in March 2011.

Infrastructure in NSW ‘average to poor’ a scathing new report card from Engineers Australia where more than three quarters of the sectors require major or critical changes. This report highlights the point that industry can identify the problems, yet elected governments are incapable of preparing a work – in – progress strategy for Australia. Fix these problems because today our population is well ahead of infrastructure which was brilliantly explained in gotchanomics doesn’t bring home the real bacon.

Labor struggling in key states which led to rolling out the barrel – Labor denies pork – barrel suggestion. Andrew West from the Sydney Morning Herald wrote Back on track – and just the ticket for commuters “It is politically brave for a prime minister to appear publicly with a NSW premier these days. It is crazy brave to make a joint announcement about public transport. The NSW public is so cynical about public transport promises – after 15 years of projects being announced, postponed, shelved and re – announced – that voters no longer believe state Labor can deliver a crucial service.” The $2.100 billion rail link announcement for Parramatta and Epping will no doubt be shelved once Fort Crumble is removed permanently at the next state election – all aboard the PM’s Parramatta express. Who could forget reading How lazy Nathan Rees sold NSW short which explains why Gillard and Keneally fail on Sydney’s transport infrastructure funding. More than half the pledged monies promised in the current election will not be spent until after the next election in 2013 – pork rolled out on the never-never.

BUY PRINT

Surveys reveal that Australia is home to the world’s least – affordable property. Pundits are at odds over whether it might end in a bang or a whimper – a great read Forever blowing bubbles. The Real Estate Institute of Australia recently announced that a contributing factor to the increase in house prices and the decline in housing affordability, is the under-supply of housing. According to the National Housing Supply Council, the gap between the supply and demand for housing will increase in the next eight years and this will put further pressure on house prices.

Nothing new on offer since the houses that Kevin built – “It might be important to voters – but not the parties”, wrote Kevin Saulwick. “There may have been more pressing issues than housing affordability at the 2007 election, but not many. Which makes it all the more remarkable that three years later – and with the same level of community concern about the cost of living – there has been little focus on housing by Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott. When Kevin Rudd sailed into office, it was due to Labor’s success in putting itself on the side of the angels when it came to housing costs. Rudd’s message was simple: he sympathised with families bleeding ever – larger payments on mortgages and rent. And he came to office offering policies aimed at increasing the supply of affordable properties to help reduce the pressures.” The Emperor was de-throned by the Orange Roughie because he had lost his way, then poor polling saw a phoenix – like resurrection to lead Labor to better polling – hence the soap opera.

Housing affordability can come down only with much improved infrastructure policies – Capital city house prices up 18 per cent from last year – ABS even though home loans sink to nine – year low. When infrastructure is non–existent, this leads to construction slumps in July because there is no point building, where there is no demand (especially when NSW has no South West rail link, North West rail link, Parramatta to Epping rail, M4 East and M5 East duplication). If these facilities were in place as promised, NSW construction would be booming and housing affordability and rentals much more affordable. How can Australia “move forward” when infrastructure is moving backwards, compared to our population growth? Policy on the run again as NSW Labor in the dark over Gillard’s Parramatta – Epping rail link promise which has been revealed as the rail pledge a carrot in push for McKew win for the seat of Bennelong – Maxine who?

The last remaining economic data statistic before next Saturday’s election was released this week – shock jobless rise where the three states of major concern for federal Labor – NSW, Queensland and Western Australia all experienced unemployment increases.

Whilst home loans fall as interest rates bite the good news is that the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA statement suggests longer pause given RBA forecasts plenty of blue sky ahead. With the election ‘soap opera’ out of the way next Saturday, we can expect some normality back in our property markets. Electoral promises rarely come to fruition as The Emperor “Kevin 07” found, even though he has been brought back to life – with a faint pulse.

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) has been busy working on our infrastructure and this week, we released our RWM mobile website. Previously with your mobile phone you could view our website with your phone which was a navigation nightmare because it is impossible to view a macro site on a micro application and do justice to our properties. Agentpoint our developers this week launched our mobile micro site for mobile phones users.

Open a browser on your mobile phone and type in www.m.rwm.com.au. Our research and development team are currently testing new technologies, all to improve your RWM real estate experience..
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Online is our real estate industry point of difference, because we are the only agency that gets it – so now you get it. Our clients can now sit outside one of our properties and view it on their mobile phone (outside set inspection times) from our mobile RWM website.

Thanks to Steve and Richard for filling in whilst I was relaxing in our Thailand branch office which is better known (by me) as the Tipsy Prawn.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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13.08.10Robert Simeon5 Comments »

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Robert is on holidays and I will not even try to match his massive output.  I realised just how much preparation and research goes into his weekly column when I sat down and wondered where to start!

Robert will be doing his best work this week in Thailand (similar to Sir Les Patterson as the Australian Cultural Attache).   With the election looming, he will no doubt be explaining to the Thais what “budgie smugglers” are and what “ranga” means in the Australian vernacular.

Election … how will it affect our real estate market, you ask?  Well 10 years ago and beyond, people always sat on the fence until they saw which party was elected and how the result could possibly change their lives.  Three  months later (usually) things were back to normal!   However, today, many voters are not too concerned as they think both parties are closely aligned  in their business outlooks.

As one of our clients said the other day, “we have recently had 12 years of a Liberal Government so if they get back in we know how they operate”.  Too true!

We believe the election will come and go with lots of the usual stuff from both parties and then we will sit back and worry (as we do now) about the world economy and where it is going.

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BUY PRINT

This year’s real estate market has been interesting to say the least. It started very cautiously in Jan/Feb with positive news coming out of the USA.   This was reflected in March and up to Easter when quite a lot of property was sold as buyers moved in confidently to secure their family homes.

At the same time, while  people were away enjoying their Easter and School Holidays, Greece was in financial crisis and the Aussie Govt declared a new Mining Super Tax.

The Results were devastating!  The ASX fell through the floor (12-15%) in a week and the shutters were pulled down on the property market as everyone jumped back on the fence, to sit and watch.

My experience  selling real estate over the past 30 years has been that when there is a major setback in the market there is a three  month period of “wait and see”  before people jump back into the playing arena.  That three  month period is about up, as we have just had our July holidays, which, in our business, normally coincide with the quietest month of the year.

We have seen more buyers at our “opens” this week as some see this as a good time to buy when there is not too much competition around. The market presently represents good value and the bold buyers will probably be the big winners in the long term.

We anticipate that August /September will see more turnover of stock at the current levels and then a steady run into Christmas. Interest rates rises, which are still a topic of conversation, will have a bearing  in Western Sydney, rather than on the Eastern Seaboard but will keep prices in check across the board.

Look forward to seeing you at the opens, in the Village or on the sidelines somewhere soon.  Now I am off to find an orangutan wearing speedos, so i can send a photo to Rob in Thailand.

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Steve.

23.07.10Stephen Patrick4 Comments »

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With the benefit of hindsight, we ask, did the powers that be in Canberra get the stimulus spending right whilst addressing the global financial crisis? If not, what have they learned from it (if anything)? The answer would be absolutely nothing, given nothing has, or is, being done about housing. Construction activity falls in June which is a clue dropping 6.8 points in June to a 10 – month low. More construction equates to more homes which in turn, reduces house prices. The construction industry ‘is’ the third biggest employer in Australia (or  should that be ‘was’?)

The major problems attributed to Forts Fumble and Crumble is that economically, they confuse usage with wastage (otherwise known as “reckless and wasteful spending”). After all, Fort Fumble is still borrowing almost $100 million a day which is in direct competition with home borrowers and small business as Joe Hockey tells govt to cool spending.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met this week and decided to keep rates on hold despite solid numbers. Of course the announcement was met with the usual rhetoric Wayne Swan welcomes interest rate decision citing “while we’ve fought off the recession and kept unemployment low, we know that a lot of people are still doing it tough and recent rate rises have stretched family budgets.” More Treasurer speak “we’re focussed on reforming and strengthening our economy with investments to harness mining boom mark 11 where the Liberals failed in mining boom mark 1.” Wayne is almost Shakespearean with his economic recitals and enactments although the RBA keeps saying Government must rein in demand growth: McKibbin.

Thought we would head south this week for a change of Sydney scenery

BUY PRINT

Let’s take a closer look at Fort Fumble’s mark 11 harnessing – mining tax changes had one purpose which was taking pressure off key marginal seats. Since the new deal was announced last Friday, it has been described as a compromise, a back flip and a monumental cave–in MRRT revenue loss to be double government estimate: Goldman.

The tax was reduced from 40 to 22.5 per cent a hard tax to swallow as Alan Kohler wrote on Business Spectator.”More than double the profit threshold above which it cuts in and reduce the number of companies being taxed from 2,500 to 320, and lose only one – eighth of the money. Julia Gillard is a prime minister who Gets Things Done – the Mary Poppins of tax policy.”

No regrets over mining tax – Treasury Secretary Ken Henry whilst Martin Ferguson concedes: ‘We got super – profits tax wrong’ I can’t wait to see what happens with mark 111 as government ‘dishonest’ on revised super profits tax revenue as government sacrificed $35 bn in tax deal with big miners.

Time to move above ground where caution is being thrown to the wind (again) – which I might add is not a bad thing. Of course it would have been much better had Fort Fumble got their stimulus issues right which unfortunately was not the case as I have long argued – roads, infrastructure, housing subdivisions, hospitals – a long term future model. Fort Crumble was at it again also with another painful snub of Sydney transport, M5 set to be delayed and doodling as Metro plan burns $500m. Then on Thursday we had 50,000 Sydney homes without power again broken infrastructure in NSW.

Not one Sydney transport project has been listed as a priority for the federal Government’s (Fort Fumble) latest infrastructure funding targets. “Blasting the NSW Government’s failure to properly plan billion – dollar road and transport projects, Infrastructure Australia has instead selected a $4.9 billion Melbourne metro train project, an Adelaide freight rail line and a Federal Highway road upgrade in the ACT as priorities.” Work this out – the Pacific Highway gets an upgrade and Sydney gets absolutely nothing – Sydney has been placed in the too hard basket along with our politicians. No strings attached with Sydney anymore.

Great news for property owners who sit within a 5 – 10 – 15 kilometre radius of our CBD as evidenced when Jonathan Chancellor published this week in the Sydney Morning Herald – Top 20 Sydney house sales just the one recorded sale outside the radius – clue!

Mosman posted five of the top 20 sales.  Our very own Stephen Patrick had the highest sale and Richard Simeon had another in Warringah Road. This saw  Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) record two of the five, which this week, took our Internet subscriber sales to $956,784,220.

So how is our Spring/Summer property market looking? Year ahead good, not great where Australia’s market economists declare there will be no double– dip recession here. Buyers expected to favour private sales over auctions as growth slows. We predict the Mosman market to shift (initially) in the upcoming market to online advertising – stage one as property markets stabilise. Why? It’s all about our real estate ring of confidence.

As Macquarie Economics Research explained:

• With more volatility in global financial markets, an increasing number of analysts are betting that this will force the RBA to leave rates unchanged over the next year. Certainly, if the credit markets dry up the RBA will not hesitate to cut interest rates. But with the Government’s deal with major mining companies over taxation, removing one of the clouds over investment, the RBA might actually have become more confident in the growth outlook.

Don’t forget rise in inflation to irk RBA where the annual reading of 3.6 per cent rate of inflation rose for the eighth straight month. This is well outside the RBA’s target of between 2 and 3 per cent. Rents will continue to drive inflation up given a six year wait to save deposit for first home in Sydney which is quite ironic given Infrastructure Australia is not investing in Sydney. IMF sees strong growth in Australia, but risks grow although I would add that government economic policy is an even greater risk on our shores.

Sydney needs a plan and it is obvious that  Forts Fumble and Crumble have absolutely no idea on how to address such complex issues. Sydney commuters can expect to see new signs on all transport systems – Turn around You Are Going the Wrong Way – no infrastructure ahead. When Fort Crumble has difficulty filling out Infrastructure Australia forms it’s no wonder NSW is a basket case. More back flips from Fort Fumble where Gillard eats her words over refugees as her options dwindle to six countries for east Timor alternative.

The Emperor may have gone however the art of the back flip remains the preferred exercise for a government that just two weeks ago, had lost its way. So what would one call the MRRT and East Timor? Must be a phase they are going through although we need more than promises to judge Julia. Maybe she has short term memory loss?

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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9.07.10Robert Simeon5 Comments »

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There is no doubting the volatility of home prices and this became more evident when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided not to increase the official cash rate. The new money in our property markets is under serious threat. So too, are the financial institutions which can ill afford a reverse in property prices. These very markets were in growth mode during the global financial crisis when the established (old money) property markets went into actual decline. The RBA is now faced with a real estate conundrum as is the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) with reporting accuracy.

Christopher Joye wrote in Business Spectator this week “ABS overstates house price growth” – “the ABS’s median price numbers are being artificially inflated by the fading of first timers, who are being replaced by up graders buying more expensive homes.” Which is exactly what happened in Mosman last year as the market awoke from the GFC (from June onwards) as did the majority of top-end property markets. Joye wrote “While the ABS results will no doubt trigger the inevitable media excitement, the hard empirical fact is that Australian homes have been recording consistent capital growth of about 2 – 3 per cent per quarter since the start of 2009. It is comforting to note, however, that Australian house price growth has not outpaced the growth in household disposable incomes since around 2002.”

The building in the bottom left hand corner is the clue where Sydney Ports are located – a magnificent heritage building on Sydney Harbour identifying our rich history

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Tim Mooney Photography

Understandably the media ran amok (trying to get those rivers of gold running again) with the ABS figures – Australian house price index rose 5.6 per cent in the December quarter and the September quarter was upwardly revised to 4.4 per cent. ABS figures in the year to December identified that the house price index rose 13.6 per cent. The only problem is, that ABS figures are not considered as accurate as the other data aggregators.

So let’s take a look at Australian Property Monitors – Domain Property Data (our preferred data aggregator given that they list the actual property addresses for all the properties contained within this report) revealed for Mosman house sales in 2009 – 2008 – 2007 a comparative analysis where you can be the judge.

MOSMAN PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2009 to 1 DECEMBER 2009

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• Total number offered – 334
• Total number of sales recorded – 303. (31 still unrecorded)
• Total Value Sold – $668,966,377
• Public Auction – 62 properties to a value of $94,857,000
• Private Treaty – 241 properties to a value of $574,109,377
• Median Price – $2,000,000
• Average Price – $2,397,728
• Highest Sale $13,200,000 (RWM)

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MOSMAN PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2008 to 31 DECEMBER 2008

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• Total number offered – 360
• Total number of sales recorded – 287
• Total Value Sold – $774,865,612
• Public Auction – 65 properties to a value of $126,645,250
• Private Treaty – 222 properties to a value of $648,220,362
• Median Price – $2,275,000
• Average Price – $2,738,041
• Highest Sale $14,700,000 (RWM)

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MOSMAN PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2007 to 31 DECEMBER 2007

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• Total number offered – 456
• Total number of sales recorded – 412
• Total Value Sold – $1,182,372,720
• Public Auction – 132 properties to a value of $292,042,000
• Private Treaty – 280 properties to a value of $890,330,720
• Median Price – $2,300,000
• Average Price – $2,869,836
• Highest Sale $22,500,000 (new record price)

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Next week Cremorne House and Semi sales

SUMMARY MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES FROM 2007 to 2009

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It is interesting to extrapolate data post GFC. In 2007 the number of houses offered to the marketplace was 456 and in 2008 the number offered, fell -21 per cent to 360. In 2009, we witnessed market consolidation when 334 houses were offered at a – 7 per cent decline. One must not forget that in 2008 and 2009, scuttlebutt had property voyeurs believing that more than half the houses in Mosman were available for sale (this would equate to approximately 2,500 homes as against the recorded 360 and 334 respectively). Thank goodness one Mosman agency has the technology and desire to set the record straight.

Sold properties in 2007 came in at 412 and dropped -30 per cent in 2008 to 287 then in latter 2009 we saw an interesting turnaround where sales increased to 303 – a +5.5 per cent increase. The same patterns can be observed in ‘total value sold’ statistics when the total in 2007 was $1,182,372,720. This fell -34.5 per cent in 2008 to record $774,865,612. In 2009 we started to see the recovery when total sales were $668,966,377 (this represents a -14 per cent decline). We expect these figures to move back into the black in 2010.

THE AUCTION v PRIVATE TREATY DEBATE IN MOSMAN

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This is amazing data and before we move further, I must advise that every suburb reports different rates of success. The Eastern Suburbs have very strong auction markets and Mosman is one of the worst performing auction markets in Sydney.

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Mosman – 2007

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• Total sales – 412
• Auction – 132 (32 per cent)
• Private Treaty – 280 (68 per cent)

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Mosman – 2008

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• Total sales – 287
• Auction – 65 (23 per cent)
• Private Treaty – 222 (77 per cent)

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Mosman – 2009

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• Total sales – 303
• Auction – 62 (20 per cent)
• Private Treaty – 241 (80 per cent)

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Makes you wonder why so many Mosman agents keep recommending auction? I know that regular blogger Patricia will find these statistics of great interest.

So where to in 2010 and what will happen to Mosman house prices? I asked Steve Patrick, one of the most respected agents in Mosman what would happen and here is his response. “After a twenty (20) per cent fall in our market from the highs of 2007 to the end of 2009 (actual registered sales on several properties substantiate this figure), I believe the market bounced back somewhat in the order of five (5) to ten (10) per cent.) The last few months of 2009 confirmed this trend where house prices have now stabilised.

There is renewed confidence in the local property markets from buyers, albeit with caution, where I see our market moving steadily over the next six months with small (but more importantly), steady upward growth. Supply and demand will be the key factor going forward as it always has been. Rarely in my past twenty plus years working in Mosman, have I seen an over -supply, even when the GFC was at its historic peak.”

So there you have it! The Mosman online real estate bible has spoken. This weekend marks our first 2010 experience of buyer reaction/response at our upcoming open houses.

We trust that the data contained within this edition of Virtual Realty News will greatly assist you with your market determination. Rest assured, you will read it first with only one Mosman Agency!

See you on our blog where the Mosman debate continues.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Balmoral real estate, Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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5.02.10Robert Simeon14 Comments »

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With Robert returning today, it’s Steve and Richard’s last chance to throw a few more thoughts your way. So next week, watch out for more contentious and newsworthy journalism. Good luck out there to our vendors and purchasers alike. We wish you happy property hunting as we move into Spring.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

RICHARD’S FIVE REAL ESTATE TIPS

•Investment tip of the month – without doubt, Holsworthy is now flush with bargains. Nice semi-rural setting although there may be a few local security issues.

•Interest rates on hold for the last time? – It’s probably a fair call. Although this is a negative thought for most, it is a positive sign for boosting the real estate market. We are at the bottom and the only way is up, so there is no reason for buyers to delay purchasing. Our banks are over it and they want to make money, so watch-out!

•Potential vendors, if you plan to sell in the next 12 months, I think the time is now! Buyers are screaming for more choice and they will to commit to a purchase. With less property on the market, buyers are forced to compete; simple forces of supply and demand apply, so sale prices will be higher this quarter. Interest rates are still very low and ‘the media’ hasn’t started its next wave of negative real estate commentary, which is sure to happen when the inevitable inflationary spike eventuates.

•Don’t let your agent under-quote your property in this market, claiming this is the best way to drive the price up, or blaming the tough market. The reality is, that although prices are firming, the market is still soft and more than ever, every buyer wants real value for money. No buyer today wants to believe that they paid the asking price in this market. Every agent will have excellent comparable sales to determine and justify a strong value for the property they represent, which every good buyer needs to appreciate.

•To determine the best agent to sell your property, the most important question is: “Tell me the strategies you will use to achieve the highest possible price and what do you do differently from other agents?” Today, more than ever, the difference between a good and poor result will cost you up to 20%. So, by choosing the wrong agent and agency, you could be risking hundreds of thousands of dollars. Any agent can quote a potential high sale price, but if they cannot convince you how and why they will achieve that price, then it won’t happen in the market.

HOT REAL ESTATE TIPS FROM STEPHEN PATRICK

•Timing – It is vitally important to get the selling period right when putting your property on the market. In suburbs like Mosman, many families have weekend properties or holiday homes that they head off to for the school holidays. Hence, on the Lower North Shore, our open inspection numbers can drop by over 50% during school holidays. So if we have an extensive marketing programme booked, we make sure that it falls between school holiday periods.

•Presentation – This can make a huge difference. For example, if the furniture in the house has been bashed to bits by your kids over the last 20 years, it may make the house look old and tired. It is often hugely successful to rent new furniture for a 4-week marketing period to maximise your price. Obviously the flooring and paint on the walls also have to be in good order to set off the furniture. This presentation can make a huge difference to the end price.

•Concept Plans – For properties that are under-developed, where there is extensive potential to extend and upgrade, we often have an architect draw up concept plans to give buyers ideas of what can be done to fully maximise the property’s potential. Fabulous computer images cam be produced to help buyers visualise the property on completion.

•Facts & Features – Many quality homes have numerous features of interest to buyers – too many to list on a standard sales brochure. With so many available choices of tiles, stones, c-bus systems etc. it is important to transfer all the information to the buyer when they are considering the property. All the extra quality features in the property substantiate the high price expectations. A house that cost $1m to build can seem an exact replica of a $2m home of higher quality with extra technology, but much of the extra cost is hidden unless we specifically let buyers know.

•Landscaping and Gardening – It is also important to have your gardens in order. The front entrance is particularly important to create that very important ‘first impression’.

•A Makeover – Can work wonders and this could include the cleaning of tiled/sandstone paths, a house wash and new colourful plants added to the garden. There are several companies who will do this at a very competitive price.

Kindest regards and good luck!

Stephen Patrick (Principal) & Richard Simeon (Director)

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

7.08.09Stephen Patrick4 Comments »