So let’s clarify a few points from an insider’s perspective. Property data is in all probability, ages away from being conclusive (after the result) and why, today does it still remains a dog’s breakfast?

Collectively none of these data collection institutions get it – they spread it and sell misinformation that is simply incomplete and many months away from accuracy.

The dilemma is quite simple. The property aggregators sell the information gathered from the agent, then continue to charge agencies to access its data … which is actually, the intellectual property of the agent. Until they get it right there is a very strong argument as to why agents should cease providing such data.

There are no better examples of such anomalies, when this week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced that house prices fell by minus 2.2 per cent in the March quarter 2009. Australian Property Monitors (Domain Property Data) reported that its research identified that house prices increased by 0.1 per cent in the March quarter 2009. Australian Property Monitors works from exchanged property information and it is no secret that in the current market condition, many vendors instruct agents that the sale price is confidential and not for publication.

Therefore, it can take months (depending on settlement terms) to collect an exacting position which I will identify with the data I have collected. For the record, RP Data – Rismark reported that house prices were up 0.1 per cent in the March quarter 2009. I remain unaware that we supply any data to RP Data – Rismark. I would also add that RWM receives no payment for supplying any property data.

Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2007 to 30 April 2007

• Total sales – 139
• Total value – $350,165,720
• Median price – $2,200,000
• Average price – $2,632,824
• Highest price – $10,200,000

Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2008 to 30 April 2008

• Total sales – 119
• Total value – $309,519,612
• Median price – $2,700,000
• Average price – $2,919,000
• Highest price – $8,500,000

Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2009 to 30 April 2009

• Total sales – 62
• Total value – $86,621,000
• Median price – $1,525,000
• Average price – $2,221,051
• Highest Price – $8,500,000

Source: Australian Property Monitors (Domain Property Data) owned by Fairfax Media

I would suggest that property voyeurs are much more interested in niche markets , for example, Mosman, as against “stew” markets where all the data ingredients are fed into the one murky pot.

As you would have noticed the Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2009 to 30 April 2009 look a tad sick when compared to 2008 and 2007. So when I add our confidential house sales to the data the Total Sales move up from 62 to 71, Total Value from $86,621,000 up to $126,026.000. For the record, RWM has sold the greatest volume in terms of number of sales and total value over this period. The Highest Price also changes where the first number starts with a one (in excess of $10,000,000). This additional $39,405,000 in house sales makes a noticeable change to the current figures. It’s just that now you are the first to know and the aggregators are left shaking their respective heads. This is further complicated by the fact that the vast majority of sales data provided today leaves out the sale price.

I had trouble containing my excitement this week when an old favourite, Bobby Dazzler Carr, made an unexpected appearance, spruiking further debate about the condition of his once beloved Fort Crumble. Obviously, his work time sheets must now be down after he moved from Fort Crumble over to the Millionaires Factory.

The audacity of the argument that the Dazzler was the architect (or should that be builder) whilst presiding over the State of Decay. Whilst stopping short of revealing just exactly where all those “rivers of gold”, disappeared to, on the back of the financial floods from GST, stamp duty and poker machines taxes proved to be of little consequence. It was the system, not, the government the Dazzler declared (to those that listened – not many I think).

Of course it was , how silly of us to assume anything else as Fort Crumble now stumbles down an estimated $2 billion budget deficit by June 30. Just as interesting, south of the border, Victoria’s Fort Fabulous is in surplus and offering tax cuts because Jeff Kennett did what our very own Dazzler couldn’t deliver, while Kennett financially and politically, renovated his Fortress.

Tensions between Ruddy Fantastic and the latest landlord over at Fort Crumble are not that good to say the least. Ruddy Fantastic is presently conducting a three day jobs summit in Western Sydney, and no members from Fort Crumble were asked to attend – another clue?

As quick as a flash, Fort Crumble jumped the land tax rate for property valued above $2.250 million from 1.6 per cent to 2 per cent. The irony is that these properties are already (after tax) in negative rental return, so the landlords then increase their negative gearing tax deductions, which Ruddy Fantastic then picks up.

Will negative gearing be abolished in next week’s Fudge-it?

One should also not forget, that Fort Crumble is reportedly crunching the numbers to introduce its latest annual land tax grab which apparently applies to every property owner within the State of Decay. If true, this would be political suicide – but then again, when you have a $2 billion budget deficit Fort Crumble is now in critical decision or, should that be condition? Ruddy Fantastic would be thankful he resides north of Fort Crumble’s moat.

Next week’s Federal “Fudge It “ will be riveting, more particularly if the budget deficit blows in (or should that read out) around $70 billion as quite a few are predicting.

With elected politicians in overdrive on their Twitter accounts all will be revealed on next week’s Tweet’s – if you are not on Twitter, you don’t know what you are missing out on. Have a look http://twitter.com/ Compelling viewing indeed – love Twitter.

We are very happy to announce that each week we will showcase one of Tim Mooney’s aerial masterpieces in Virtual Realty News. Tim has been a subscriber for many years. After prolonged negotiations – we now can bring you these amazing shots exclusively. Tim has actually spent more time in the air than Superman – if you click on this week’s aerial photograph you will be taken to Tim’s website.

Cheers and Tweet’s ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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8.05.09Robert Simeon7 Comments »

The Global Financial Recession is moving in mysterious ways and it would be fair to say that micro markets are now starting to feel the pain. Property market transactions are shrinking – so too is our economy and the best way to handle the situation is with patience – not panic.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Ric Battellino, advised this week that the Australian economy is likely to shrink for a few more quarters and if we read between the lines, this means for the rest of 2009. Battellino said “These measures will go a long way to offsetting the negative influences on the economy coming from abroad, but the reality is that we can’t fully insulate ourselves from what is happening elsewhere in the world.” The RBA is in all probability our best barometer in the current environment given its independence in the Australian market place.

Alan Kohler wrote this week on his popular business site www.businessspectator.com.au “Wake up and smell the downturn” (always thought provoking) “Australia has so far been cocooned by political and economic insouciance and prettied up by well – targeted government mascara: the bank deposit guarantee, and state government debt guarantees, the short selling ban on financials, the first home buyers grant, the 30 per cent extra tax deduction for business investment until June 30 and of course the huge fiscal stimulus, and especially the cash handouts.”

The jury is still out as to whether Ruddy Fantastic’s December “cash splash” worked although this week’s announcement that February retail sales slumped by the greatest margin in nine years identifies a stark and different spin. Unemployment continues to over shadow our economy and employment prospects are worsening. RBA board member Roger Corbett, did add some perspective when he said “our retail figures would be the envy of other countries in the OECD.”

Next week’s meeting of our RBA will be most interesting. Will the cash rate be reduced further? The standard variable mortgage rate has already fallen by 375 basis points in the past six months. In Mosman, property transactions are reducing and so too are prices although we are now starting to see some clarity in the situation.

A home was auctioned last week at 11 Cyprian Street Mosman (mortgagee-in-possession) the first in 2009. We sold the property on 1 July 2005 for $4,725,000 and it has just sold for $4,000,000 a drop of 18 per cent. An excellent example of a recorded transaction speaking much louder than words that were talking a 30 per cent drop. So I went to RP Data to look at recorded transaction volumes for Mosman houses and apartments since 2000. Bear in mind that because of confidentiality restraints, a few 2009 house sales are yet to be recorded.

MOSMAN HOUSES

• 2009 – 24 sales. Averaging 8 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,425,000
• 2008 – 264 sales. Averaging 22 sales per month with a median sale price of $2,200,000
• 2007 – 409 sales. Averaging 34 sales per month with a median sale price of $2,230,000
• 2006 – 396 sales. Averaging 33 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,900,000
• 2005 – 293 sales. Averaging 24 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,850,000
• 2004 – 310 sales. Averaging 26 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,637,500
• 2003 – 376 sales. Averaging 31 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,699,500
• 2002 – 392 sales. Averaging 33 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,690,000
• 2001 – 446 sales. Averaging 37 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,250,000
• 2000 – 349 sales. Averaging 29 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,150,000

Source: RP Data

If you look closely at these figures you will note that since 2000 to 2008 the total number of houses sold in Mosman was 3235. The total number of houses in Mosman is 4,900 so this equates to 66 per cent of the market sold over this period. The average trade percentage per annum is 7.3 per cent.

Beware of agents quoting absurd sales results without revealing their source. One Mosman agency has fellow agents shaking their heads in total disbelief at the rubbish they are sending out. We are in the midst of a property market that requires truthful analysis, not distorted results – otherwise known as false advertising.

MOSMAN APARTMENTS – STRATA TITLE

• 2009 – 44 sales. Averaging 4 sales per month with a median sale price of $520,000
• 2008 – 494 sales. Averaging 41 sales per month with a median sale price of $526,000
• 2007 – 637 sales. Averaging 53 sales per month with a median sale price of $525,000
• 2006 – 456 sales. Averaging 38 sales per month with a median sale price of $501,000
• 2005 – 484 sales. Averaging 40 sales per month with a median sale price of $522,500
• 2004 – 474 sales. Averaging 40 sales per month with a median sale price of $473,500
• 2003 – 570 sales. Averaging 48 sales per month with a median sale price of $475,000
• 2002 – 725 sales. Averaging 60 sales per month with a median sale price of $452,000
• 2001 – 679 sales. Averaging 56 sales per month with a median sale price of $410,000
• 2000 – 415 sales. Averaging 35 sales per month with a median sale price of $390,000

Source: RP Data

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) have ten house sales yet to be recorded at RP Data – the total sales value $47,440,000. Our average house sale this year is $4,744,000.

There is anecdotal evidence that our top-end markets are struggling despite significant price reductions and in the last six months (we calculate) there were just eight house sales in excess of $5,000,000.

We at RWM believe the $5,000,000 + market is not far off an upward run given record low interest rates. Historically, this market since 2001, has been Mosman’s most volatile. Financial losses have been extreme, even though in Australia, the principal place of residence is tax free (unlike nearly every other country).

Why do I refer to 2001? Well in June 2001 RWM posted Mosman’s first ever double digit sale with the sale of a Hopetoun Avenue property for $15.500 million. Scroll back up and have a close look at what happened to median house prices from 2001 – 2008. Median house prices doubled yet the apartment median only recorded a 35 per cent increase. The reason why – Mosman apartments don’t have a strong top-end as against Mosman houses which historically are prolific performers. Properties are valued from the top-end down and the top – end has the greatest capital gains – tax free.

These statistics have me intrigued so next week I will extrapolate all the $5,000,000 + house sales since 2000 and see what that reveals (I am already seeing an interesting pattern).

The blog fired up last week and I was accused of writing ‘dribble’ (drivel). The Word Smith Award was easily won by Patricia.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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3.04.09Robert Simeon30 Comments »