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Little wonder Julia Gillard’s Fort Fumble finds itself in such a dire position on her first anniversary as Prime Minister. No candle or cake cutting (sigh of relief), even worse no partying: Julia Gillard reveals – why I knifed Kevin Rudd. Twelve months on, Julia Gillard and Labor slump to new lows which would explain why, constant internal bickering is the real explanation it’s not personal, it’s  policy – why Labor is flatlining.

When I read Julia Gillard outlines her plans for survival I could not help but notice her quote about the reasoning behind Kevin Rudd’s knifing “it became clear to me in the crucible of those days that the Labor caucus wanted a different path and a different leader.” A contradiction of terms (maybe) as Julia Gillard tells caucus to be patient when the Fairfax – Nielsen poll revealed that Kevin Rudd preferred as ALP leader: poll. The party faithful (tongue in cheek) found very few positives for Gillard in horror poll.

Alas, a year on, Rudd would do things differently which was met with a somewhat tinge of sobriety as the faceless waiters dispensed caucus refreshments consisting only of lemon, lime and bitterness? No thanks, Kevin. Party politics suggests absolutely no renaissance period for their reborn leader unworkable. Expectations of many more lemon twists: given leadership talk is killing Labor, says Peter Beattie, as party rallies behind PM.

BUY PRINT

This is a one – off aerial capture of Royal Sydney Golf Club at Rose Bay. The new swimming pool is ready for summer although I’m not sure what they’re going to construct in the vacant area below it?

Our invaluable Virtual Realty News subscriber mail suggests Julia Gillard has six months to turn the polls around given the Labor Party finds itself at odds (not great ones either). Betstar have Julia Gillard at $1.65 to lead Labor to the next election with Assistant Treasurer Bill (shortening) Shorten next at $4, Climate Change pioneer Greg Combat (I meant Combet) and Kevin (scissor hands) Rudd at $7.50. Little wonder consumer confidence levels are in rapid decline, or should that be a rapid response to economic concerns?

The rise and rise of the Aussie dollar has appreciated 21.82 per cent during the last twelve months which explains why the expats have all but withdrawn from our real estate markets. Manufacturing and retail have been hit much harder which then resonates through to consumer confidence in the Australian economy. The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 2.6 per cent in June from 103.9 per cent in May to 101.2 in June. Trouble looms on the home front which is a natural progression moving on from consumer confidence declines – what remains to be seen is which real estate markets will remain in a holding pattern and those that will endure declines.

Winter chills price growth amid subdued auction sales reveals that in May 2011, the average discount rate for properties was 6.4 per cent, compared to 5.7 per cent in May last year. There is a twenty five per cent increase in the number of properties for sale in Sydney as compared to this time last year – I will get to Mosman shortly. During the first four months of 2011 only 8,271 home loans were approved for first – home buyers in NSW. This was the lowest number of loans recorded for the same period since 2004 and is sixty per cent less than the 20,982 first – home buyers recorded in the first four months of 2009.

Jonathan Chancellor’s Property Observer wrote this week home buyers and investors more hawkish than economists – 83 per cent of consumers expect rate rises over the next year, but that’s down on the 91 per cent recorded in February, according to the latest Westpac Melbourne index of Consumer Sentiment. This explains why the Reserve Bank plays a game of wait and see as household finances dive to the worst in at least 10 years.

I love all this data as it allows Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) to sell our market via our online technologies. If you are a purchaser (not just in Mosman) you are correct in thinking a property crash is gaining momentum. If a real estate agency does not use a blog in this modern era it simply identifies how behind the time their business model is – given it is imperative that our demographic market remains educated about what is actually happening in our Mosman market. The real reason why real estate agents don’t have blogs is that they can talk but struggle with writing – criteria just as important given selling is not 100 per cent based on speech.

Margie Blok wrote in Title Deeds last week – Mosman Millions and Modern marvel sold which prompted me to do a Mosman house sales analysis from 1 January to 23 June 2011. To make matters interesting I extrapolated data for the same period in 2010 and 2007 which was prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Remember there is a twenty five per cent increase in properties for sale in Sydney presently – as compared to this time last year.

Data provided from Domain Property Data and RWM Research this data is from 1 January to 23 June for 2007/2010 and 2011.

Mosman – Total Number of Houses for Sale

• 2007 – 232
• 2010 – 208 (a 10 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)
• 2011 – 161 (a 31 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)

Total Mosman Houses Sold

• 2007 – 211
• 2010 – 183 (a 13 per cent reduction)
• 2011 – 118 (a 44 per cent reduction)

RWM Research: The Mosman housing market is actually defying the trending seen in other Sydney suburbs given the available volume of houses for sale is actually contracting.

Total Value of Mosman Houses Sold

• 2007 – $565,505,720
• 2010 – $464,616,550
• 2011 – $198,296,000*

*denotes that 49 houses have entered a zero sale price – the Total Value for 2011 is still months away from final determination.

Adjusted Mosman Auction Clearance Rate

• 2007 – 40 per cent
• 2010 – 35 per cent
• 2011 – 32 per cent

RWM Research: Mosman has one of the lowest if not the lowest auction clearance rates in Sydney.

Mosman Median House Price

• 2007 – $2,260,000
• 2010 – $2,200,000
• 2011 – $2,100,000*

*denotes that 49 houses have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Median House Price is still months away from final determination.

Mosman Average House Price

• 2007 – $2,680,121
• 2010 – $2,685,644
• 2011 – 2,792,901*

*denotes that 49 houses have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Average House Price is still months away from final determination.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 104
• Number of houses on the market this week – 97
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 99
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 99

RWM Research: The total number of houses for sale dropped below 100 this week which would have to be the lowest number available in living memory

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week –  17
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 38
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 33

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 12
• Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 63
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 65

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Now you have the most exacting explanation of where the Mosman housing market currently sits.

It is precisely twelve months to the day that ‘The Emperor’ Kevin Rudd felt the long blade of Julia Gillard’s knife given “he had lost his way”. The Emperor even had to cancel his one year anniversary which was brilliantly captured by Bill Leak this week in The Australian.

The Australian- order Bill Leak’s print

Cheers ^__^

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24.06.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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Excellent one on one interview where Steve Patrick interviews Glen Spratt from Mortgageport about the state of the market regarding the local home loan market. The interview discusses -

• What state is the mortgage market currently?
• What trends are noticeable?
• Tell us briefly about Mortgageport
• What type of customers does Mortgageport focus on helping?

This video was produced by visualdomain

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15.09.10Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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The 2010 federal election is all about the polls (cometh the spin) then three years on, we have more broken promises than promises that actually came to fruition. Neither party has a single blueprint for the Australian economy, nor the nation as a whole and this was classically highlighted during the global financial crisis spend– a– thon which we are told constantly, saved the Australian economy from recession. Australia’s need to invest in infrastructure, is urgent – roads, rail and ports and this is why Fort Crumble faces election annihilation when NSW goes to the polls in March 2011.

Infrastructure in NSW ‘average to poor’ a scathing new report card from Engineers Australia where more than three quarters of the sectors require major or critical changes. This report highlights the point that industry can identify the problems, yet elected governments are incapable of preparing a work – in – progress strategy for Australia. Fix these problems because today our population is well ahead of infrastructure which was brilliantly explained in gotchanomics doesn’t bring home the real bacon.

Labor struggling in key states which led to rolling out the barrel – Labor denies pork – barrel suggestion. Andrew West from the Sydney Morning Herald wrote Back on track – and just the ticket for commuters “It is politically brave for a prime minister to appear publicly with a NSW premier these days. It is crazy brave to make a joint announcement about public transport. The NSW public is so cynical about public transport promises – after 15 years of projects being announced, postponed, shelved and re – announced – that voters no longer believe state Labor can deliver a crucial service.” The $2.100 billion rail link announcement for Parramatta and Epping will no doubt be shelved once Fort Crumble is removed permanently at the next state election – all aboard the PM’s Parramatta express. Who could forget reading How lazy Nathan Rees sold NSW short which explains why Gillard and Keneally fail on Sydney’s transport infrastructure funding. More than half the pledged monies promised in the current election will not be spent until after the next election in 2013 – pork rolled out on the never-never.

BUY PRINT

Surveys reveal that Australia is home to the world’s least – affordable property. Pundits are at odds over whether it might end in a bang or a whimper – a great read Forever blowing bubbles. The Real Estate Institute of Australia recently announced that a contributing factor to the increase in house prices and the decline in housing affordability, is the under-supply of housing. According to the National Housing Supply Council, the gap between the supply and demand for housing will increase in the next eight years and this will put further pressure on house prices.

Nothing new on offer since the houses that Kevin built – “It might be important to voters – but not the parties”, wrote Kevin Saulwick. “There may have been more pressing issues than housing affordability at the 2007 election, but not many. Which makes it all the more remarkable that three years later – and with the same level of community concern about the cost of living – there has been little focus on housing by Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott. When Kevin Rudd sailed into office, it was due to Labor’s success in putting itself on the side of the angels when it came to housing costs. Rudd’s message was simple: he sympathised with families bleeding ever – larger payments on mortgages and rent. And he came to office offering policies aimed at increasing the supply of affordable properties to help reduce the pressures.” The Emperor was de-throned by the Orange Roughie because he had lost his way, then poor polling saw a phoenix – like resurrection to lead Labor to better polling – hence the soap opera.

Housing affordability can come down only with much improved infrastructure policies – Capital city house prices up 18 per cent from last year – ABS even though home loans sink to nine – year low. When infrastructure is non–existent, this leads to construction slumps in July because there is no point building, where there is no demand (especially when NSW has no South West rail link, North West rail link, Parramatta to Epping rail, M4 East and M5 East duplication). If these facilities were in place as promised, NSW construction would be booming and housing affordability and rentals much more affordable. How can Australia “move forward” when infrastructure is moving backwards, compared to our population growth? Policy on the run again as NSW Labor in the dark over Gillard’s Parramatta – Epping rail link promise which has been revealed as the rail pledge a carrot in push for McKew win for the seat of Bennelong – Maxine who?

The last remaining economic data statistic before next Saturday’s election was released this week – shock jobless rise where the three states of major concern for federal Labor – NSW, Queensland and Western Australia all experienced unemployment increases.

Whilst home loans fall as interest rates bite the good news is that the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA statement suggests longer pause given RBA forecasts plenty of blue sky ahead. With the election ‘soap opera’ out of the way next Saturday, we can expect some normality back in our property markets. Electoral promises rarely come to fruition as The Emperor “Kevin 07” found, even though he has been brought back to life – with a faint pulse.

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) has been busy working on our infrastructure and this week, we released our RWM mobile website. Previously with your mobile phone you could view our website with your phone which was a navigation nightmare because it is impossible to view a macro site on a micro application and do justice to our properties. Agentpoint our developers this week launched our mobile micro site for mobile phones users.

Open a browser on your mobile phone and type in www.m.rwm.com.au. Our research and development team are currently testing new technologies, all to improve your RWM real estate experience..
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Online is our real estate industry point of difference, because we are the only agency that gets it – so now you get it. Our clients can now sit outside one of our properties and view it on their mobile phone (outside set inspection times) from our mobile RWM website.

Thanks to Steve and Richard for filling in whilst I was relaxing in our Thailand branch office which is better known (by me) as the Tipsy Prawn.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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13.08.10Robert Simeon5 Comments »

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I would say yes, given the global financial crisis (GFC) in the Australian vernacular was an “easy come – easy go” experience where we experienced just the one quarter of negative growth. If you remain somewhat confused as to where the property markets are headed, don’t be.  It appears that everyone else is too. International Monetary Fund sounds warning on property bubble in Asia – Pacific and it was reported that Australia is not immune from a potential property bubble. The report said “in Australia, a combination of rapid interest rate cuts and the extension of the first – home buyers grant ensured that property remained robust during the worst of the financial crisis. Most recently, there has been a 13 per cent jump in median home prices to the end of February.” Then “the IMF report comes amid evidence the resilience in house prices has caught the eye of the Reserve Bank (RBA) Minutes of the Reserve board’s April meeting, when it announced the fifth rate rise since October, showed members noticed the property market’s continued buoyancy despite new home loans falling”. Evident with Sydney auction clearance rates graph courtesy of Australian Property Monitors.

RBA eyes May rate rise which I believe is odds – on, having read the minutes of its April 6 board meeting where they will move the official cash rate from 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent. Home truths on the whys and wherefores of the property market which identifies the property conundrum: housing is the biggest market in Australia – yet there is no central database that records transactions and prices. “Housing markets in the United States and Britain lost 40 per cent of value from their 2007 peaks and are only tentatively recovering, that Australian market appears only to have dipped slightly in 2008 (the pain was contained to the top end) before shooting up in the past 12 months.” Now the biggest clue “banks have changed their attitude. Where they used to push 100 per cent loan – to – valuation ratios (LVRs) now they lend 80 per cent over the value of the asset before demanding a swag of fees (usually labelled lenders’ mortgage insurance).”

BUY PRINT
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I love challenging Tim, who called me this week and asked “what shot do we need?” I responded, “The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) got his Health Reform approved so we need a smiley face. Can you shoot Luna Park, Ripples restaurant, North Sydney swimming pool, and a ferry at Luna Park wharf?” The man is pure genius! Tim again, exceeded our expectations – his shots make for great Christmas cards too.

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Macquarie’s Robertson sees easing in house price gains where with his latest note to clients Mr Robertson said “anyone with their eyes open is aware that usually low funding costs over the past 12 – 18 months powered a good part of the double digit house – price gains that have excited so much comment and talk of “bubbles”. Economists baffled by robust property market given after five interest rate increases in seven months they wonder how auction clearance rates remained so high for so long, along with rising median house prices. “It’s a bit of a puzzle,” said Macquarie Bank’s senior economist, Brian Redican, who once worked at the Reserve Bank. “You wonder how auction clearance rates remain very high along with house prices themselves.” Which takes me to the real estate ring of confidence – remember Aussies would bet on two flies climbing a wall.

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Prestige home market lies becalmed, Median prices up in Sydney – but not as much as in Melbourne and Penthouse sales hit bargain basement had Sydney Morning Herald property editor Jonathan Chancellor a very busy journalist this week. “Sydney’s $5 million plus prestige residential market has stalled. The number of sales this year sits at slightly above the low levels recorded during the trough of the global financial crisis. There have been 45 sales higher than $5 million during the first quarter of the year, a small rise on the 44 sales in the March quarter last year. Volumes are well down on the 74 sales in the 2007 March quarter, and 63 in the 2008 March quarter.” Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) recorded 5 of the recorded 63 sales. Subscriber sales jumped to $942,854,220 this week.

Australians’ insatiable appetite will continue although it must be noted that home loans, power and now gas – the family budget squeeze is on given NSW families will have to find an extra $3,000 in their annual budgets by the middle of next year as the soaring cost of living consumes an additional three weeks of the average worker’s wage. Even though land prices are growing at their fastest rate since 2004. No data: foreign buyer property puzzle which by coincidence identifies a twelve month anniversary since The Emperor abolished the acquisition by foreigners of Australian real estate. At 6:38 pm on April 21 I received this notice REA as well as a increased number of emails from Russian buyers agents looking to acquire residential properties.

Foreign men of property move in which demands an answer as to exactly why The Emperor approved this policy change – without consultation. Given home – ownership dream dims for Gen – Y where NSW ‘s dire housing shortage has been exposed by figures revealing that the State needs an extra 120 homes every week to keep up with population growth. To make matters worse, the average rental  of a Sydney house  is approximately $110 more a week than it was five years ago. So Fort Fumble wastes billions on pink batts and the building education revolution – and now it is taking on health? Back to Luna Park and that “Big Dipper” which resonates with Kevin 07. Although not alone – NSW still nation’s basket case, say analysts – the NSW economy continues to be the worst  in the nation and  analysts say, the government must urgently introduce initiatives to stimulate growth in housing construction, business investment and jobs.

As quick as a flash, The Emperor hightailed it to Tasmania rifts open in Kevin Rudd’s health plan given the rethink on insulation scheme over safety fears which then transformed into a junior minister Greg Combet announcing troubled insulation grants get the chop resulting in another taxpayer initiative $2.450 billion down the gurgler. Interesting that The Emperor was all over the stage announcing this – then hides when it is cancelled.

Bob Hawke and John Howard debate our future where the combined consensus was to remove states/territories from all forms of government.

Congratulations to Jacqui and Mike Rowland – Smith who this week delivered a brother for young Will – mother and baby are both healthy and happy.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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23.04.10Robert Simeon1 Comment »

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The only problem with writing a weekly blog in the present environment is finding a place to start, because of the constant bungling at both Fort Crumble (NSW Government) and Fort Fumble (Federal Government).

Let’s start with our consistently high performing Fort Crumble where dumping the Metro cost $500 million according to Premier Pristine (Kristina Keneally) “The CBD Metro was a nearly $5 billion project we wanted to be sure as a government it represented value for money.” So we have a $200 million compensation plan from builder Lend Lease and another $300 million had already been spent on the doomed rail wreck. Fort Crumble’s greatest tax payer debacle?

Premier Pristine had her defining plumage ruffled further when she was advised Rudd wants $80 million back as metro bill grows so the train wreck bill has apparently now climbed to $5.3 billion. The Infrastructure Australia money was among dozens of grants shelled out to projects across Australia. The submission by NSW was considered the worst of any of the states. Consequently, only money for scoping studies was handed out. A $5.3 billion tax payer Yes Minister – no brainer!

The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) then took time out from his Doctorate of Medicine studies and if his radical diagnosis proceeds, based on his elective political surgery for our ailing health systems, our States and Territories will need a second opinion. Reductions in Government Spending Tax (GST) appear to be thwarting The Emperor’s prognosis and the diagnosis is a referendum for Dr. Krudd. A bummer for The Emperor as his economic mind sadly lacks the “Midas Touch”.

Buy Print

What a brilliant capture this is. It appears that everything in Australia is climbing. We asked Tim Mooney to make sure that everything was colour coordinated so he had to wait for an aqua car. Each and every business faces a climb back from the GFC and how appropriate is this picture. We have had a number of subscribers contacting us to purchase photos (see our Buy Print above).

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Big Bazza O’Barrell launched his election slogan for next year’s NSW election One year out, O’Farrell picks election slogan “Make NSW Number 1 Again”. Fixing NSW’s economy is the management challenge of our time, wrote Jeff Kennett NSW should look south of the border for the way forward. Jeff Kennett said “I have been asked what I think is necessary and essential for NSW to start rebuilding. It is simple enough, in theory.”

“A new government must be elected, if for no other reason than to end – once and for all – the poisonous culture of self interest that exists among the majority who make up the current government.”

“The alternative government will, over the next 12 months complete (I assume they have well and truly started)– the work needed to immediately commence the reform programme, once in office.”

“This will require a once – in – a generation programme, similar to what we put in place over two terms in office in Victoria.”

A scathing review – “The cost of this entrenched period of failure to NSW and Australia has been monumental. Not only has NSW failed to keep abreast with the advances in thinking and technology, but all basic services that should be provided by government have deteriorated compared with those in other states.”

Charlie Aitken wrote in his Under the Southern Cross – “The political waters are clouded by secret agendas and the political landscape is generally a minefield of broken promises and policy failures. In addition, with a few exceptions, it often appears that the main aim of a politician is to gain re-election rather than pursue genuine political reform.”

The report identifies “Bad Policies” – so look at the failed Emissions Trading System, Pink Batts $2.400 billion debacle (which now requires another $200 million for stuff – up corrections) Fuel Watch and Grocery Watch, just to name a few. Throw in the now growing school halls bungled programme – which will gain greater momentum over time as Ray Hadley at 2GB keeps probing. Julia Gillard says schools building programme saved nation from recession and NSW scraps Hastings Public School project in back flip after critical audit of proposed COLA where a covered outdoor learning area would cost $954,000. A similar structure cost $78,000 back in 2003. Little wonder everything is blocked in the Senate. Government incompetence does resonate throughout the business community – which impacts economic sentiment, growth and confidence.

Bright economic outlook for Australia – Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Philip Lowe at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said underlying inflation had “moderated significantly” and was expected to decline from 3.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent during 2010. This means that interest rates will move back to normal levels so the 49 – year low of three per cent won’t (in our lifetime) be seen again. Get set for a bank gouging bonanza given Westpac chief warns of need to raise rates although GFC not over, says ANZ chief. Get set for a roller coaster ride in 2010.

Australia’s property bubble: it’s here” it’s official: 60 per cent of investors believe Australia has a property bubble. A confluence of housing shortages, low interest rates, speculative fervour and last year’s move by the Rudd Government to relax the rule of foreign ownership on real estate, has turbo – charged house prices.” I assume they are comparing the property markets to quarter 4 – 2008 although it should be noted that during the global financial crisis (GFC) it was speculated that half of Mosman houses were for sale (2,450) homes and it peaked at 195 homes. I did like this piece in the article “But as John Maynard Keynes famously said: “A market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” So true – the Mosman market is presently skittish and we are seeing a dramatic increase of foreign buyers moving into our markets.

I have absolutely no idea why The Emperor decided to make the Australian property markets international over local? “The increase in foreign purchasers cannot be underestimated. This abolished mandatory reporting of such acquisitions in a bid to “enhance flexibility in the market”. Absolute rubbish and bulls&%#!

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) are proud to offer “Glen Osmond” to the market place – C 1901 an iconic Mosman home set on a grand estate – “Glen Osmond“.

Is the lifting of foreign ownership a sound decision? We look forward to reading your thoughts on our blog. I tag the politicians so Media Monitors pass on to them, all the comments on our blog.

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Our Australian population hit 22,000,000 this week according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) – so what does that do to this supposed bubble?

Cheers, ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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26.03.10Robert Simeon20 Comments »

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Please tell the Australian voting public that we made the correct call. The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) is a worried man, given that when interest rates start rising the Government of the day (historically) receives all the blame. Monash University political analyst Nick Economou was more succinct “The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is a game – changer” (where this time around nobody will be able to keep them low). “With the indicators being that the bank is starting to ratchet up the rates, the Labor Party would be thinking ‘we ought to go to a poll sooner rather than later, because if we go as scheduled in November next year, there might be three or four interest rises by then’,” Mr Economou said.

It needs to be immediately recognised that the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was a direct result of failed business/consumer transactions that occurred outside of Australia which furthermore, explains why Australia was first country out of the crisis. Other than Australia, ( thus far) no other Central bank has raised its cash rate – which begs the question, just what makes Australia different from the rest of the world? Is it a direct result of the Federal and State/Territories artificial insemination of our property markets when they introduced the (combined) First Home Buyers Grant Scheme (FHBGS)?

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Were the property debutantes advised that there remains a strong possibility that the RBA cash rate will move from 3.00 per cent to 5.00 per cent over the course of the next two years? The RBA described last week’s cash rate of 3.00 per cent as its “emergency rate” so what then becomes the first home buyers’ emergency exit rate? Were they simply pawns to keep property transactions ticking over during the GFC? Fort Fumble (federal government) did extend the FHBGS . It has happened before – and it is set to happen again, although this time around the consequences will be dire especially for those debutantes now caught in an interest rate upward spiral.

Cast you mind back to when the cash rate hit 4.25 per cent on December 5, 2001 where South/West Sydney went into a property boom. Then the unimaginable happened two +0.25 per cent rate increases in 2002, another two +0.25 per cent rate increases in 2003 (a property boom year), no increases in 2004, one +0.25 per cent increase in 2005, three + 0.25 per cent increases in 2006 and another two +0.25 increases in 2007. In 2007 South/West Sydney property prices fell by as much as 40 per cent, otherwise known as bank sales (10 +0.25 per cent rate increases). Here are the interest rate movements from July 31, 1996 – October 7, 2009 Cash Rate Target.

Macquarie Economics Research went a step further by predicting (and they are usually spot – on with interest rate predictions) that it expects the cash rate to rise by a further 25bp (basis points) before the end of the year, and to reach 4.00 per cent by 2010. In this week’s edition of Australian Economics Interest Rate Outlook “The RBA decided to raise rates sooner rather than later, and the 25bp increase in October was the first step “towards more normal levels.” With the economic data consistently stronger than expected and downside risks dissipating, the RBA now expects growth to be at trend levels in 2010. Consequently, the “basis for such a low interest rate setting has now passed.” No doubt Australia’s weekly clearance rates are being closely monitored on the RBA radar where our recession if you want to call it that was mild when compared to other advanced economies. From September 3, 2008 to April 8, 2009 (seven months) the RBA slashed the cash rate target by 4.25 per cent which still remained the highest when compared to other advanced economies – hardly a Great Depression.

If you look at Sydney’s clearance rate (74.2 per cent) this is a very strong result. There were 811 public auctions conducted and many more would have subsequently sold after auction. A combination of record low interest rates, our fastest growing population explosion in forty years and grants to first home buyers – what a cocktail! A report compiled by Access Economics found that Australia’s population grew by 1.9 per cent in the past year, helped by the highest birth rate since 1971. But let’s not forget one other major initiative (if I can call it that) that was introduced by The Emperor in December 2008.

Adam Schwab wrote in Crikey Foreign buyers blow out the housing bubble “ The causes of Australia’s ever-inflating housing bubble are many – artificially low interest rates, government stimulus and a real estate industry devoted to an ever – increasing house price to name a few. However, a less well – publicised factor may also be at play, that is the influence of foreign buyers.”

“In December 2008, the federal government, whose primary goal appears to be maintaining property prices at unsustainably high levels, introduced legislation relaxing rules for foreign buyers of Australian property. The rules were especially helpful for property developers, who coincidently happen to be large donors to the Labor party.”

In search of anecdotal sales evidence I went ran an article on News ”Million – dollar sales force up property prices” Forget the “for sale” sign, the new catch – cry in Melbourne’s leafy suburbs is “duoshao qian”. Victoria’s top real estate agents have begun hiring Mandarin – speaking salesmen to cash in on the property boom. Translated, “duoshao qian” means “how much” And it’s a question being asked more than ever before, The Herald Sun reports. Leading agents say more than 30 per cent of their stock is bought by families from mainland China.

Back to Adam Schwab in “Such is the federal government’s fear that a residential property slump will be a negative at the polls, they have introduced a policy that exacerbates Australia’s housing shortage and prolongs an asset bubble. According to Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) data released last month, foreign investment in Australian real estate shot up by more than 30 per cent this year to $20.4 billion.” Wonder when the mirror on the wall will speak about or even repeal this legislation – especially when you look at this.

Again, on Crikey, NSW the epicentre of our housing crisis Bernard Keane wrote “NSW is the epicentre of a long – term public policy disaster in housing that will have a major impact on Australia’s recovery from recession.” Technically Fort Crumble (NSW government) has been going backwards for years technically known as government economic retreat. “This graph shows housing and other dwelling commencements in NSW over the past thirty years. Despite wide variations, in the ‘80s and ‘90s housing commencements essentially moved around a band of 6 – 7,000 a quarter. The GST caused a spike and then a sudden drop across the country, and NSW recovered like other states, but then, inexorably, began to decline. Non – house dwellings, which had been growing as a proportion of the total NSW housing stock, similarly peaked and then began falling with housing commencements. The problem lies in the lack of land released by the NSW Government and NSW’s disastrous planning regulatory system, which makes life immensely difficult for developers.”

The Emperor has much to answer – however he has not been sighted since the RBA upped the cash rate this week. I wonder what he proposes with his very own legislation that sent out a universal invitation to buy up Australia. Mirror, mirror on the wall……. our real estate markets have much reflecting ahead.

Tim Mooney will be back with his weekly photograph next week – I forgot he was on assignment this week.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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9.10.09Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) flew in this week with his economic warriors fresh from the Gala – Yours ‘n Plenty Spend To No End festivities, where our very own MasterChef of economic stardom was quick to see how production of his “Bronzed Aussie” school plaques were progressing. Almost immediately, The Emperor and his trusted Treasurer Wayne (“Sum Ting Wong”) Swan, were perplexed! This nearly resulted in the spilling of their traditional Chinese herbal tea (daily ceremony) when the Opening Statement to Senate Economics Reference Committee by Glenn Stevens was read then (later) explained to them.

First to spruik the findings of this report was Financial Services Minister Chris “Noh Nut Hing” Bowen who must have thought all of his Chinese fortune cookies (better known as Treasury forecasts) had come at once. Breathing fire, much like his favourite red silk Chinese dragon pyjamas, Noh Nut Hing declared “Glenn Stevens today gave a very good endorsement of the government’s actions so far.”

Sadly for Fort Fumble (Federal government) it was a peek –in and duck opening statement when it was revealed that very little had to do with Fort Fumble’s economic cooking techniques – the oil in the prized Fort Fumble economic wok was spitting and burning without the usual high – five spice powder. Puff, the magic economic dragon, was tempered with the consequences of economic chop suey – (lawyers on hold) much like each edition of Virtual Realty News.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

So off to the opening statement we go. Glenn Stevens “By the standards of past recessions, however, this was a mild downturn. Although the evidence is as yet incomplete, this episode has been much less serious than those in the mid 1970’s, the early 1990’s.” What, no mention of the Great Depression? Fort Fumble revealed this week that the final outcome for the 2008-09 year was a deficit of $27.1 billion – a $5 billion improvement on the fortune cookie (Treasury) predictions of $32.9 billion.

Head economic waiter of Yum Cha proceedings Wayne “Sum Ting Wong” Swan, announced from his economic kitchen “the stronger than expected final budget outcome does not substantially diminish the fiscal challenge imposed on the Australia by the global recession, which has resulted in the largest fall in budget revenues compared with its comparable budget year forecast since 1930-31.” Obviously Sum Ting Wong was acknowledging a point that the Reserve Bank governor missed?

Glenn Stevens “So I think that it is reasonable to conclude, against the benchmarks of historical and international experience, that Australia has done quite well on this occasion.”(No mention of stimulus.)

“Why was that so?” (A Cadbury chocolate moment?)

“First, our financial system was in better shape to begin with, being relatively free of serious problems the Americans, British and Europeans have encountered. “ Umm would that allude to the collapse of HIH when the then government introduced prudential authorities? Obviously a coincidence, learned consumers of fine economic dining may think!

“China will easily achieve her 8 per cent growth target this year, led by domestic demand.” No doubt The Emperor arranged for his school plaques to be made in China.

Last but not leek, “The Commonwealth budget was in surplus and there was no debt, which meant expansionary fiscal policy measures could be afforded.” Past Prime Minister John Howard was last seen doing the cha-cha on his daily morning Kirribilli walk and was observed looking at one particular signboard.

Last Saturday, 682 Sydney properties were offered to the market – eclipsing the previous record of 571 homes and apartments set back in March 2007. Many suggest that this is a direct result of the first – home buyer’s grant which was halved this week. From October 1, the First Home Buyers Boost was reduced to $10,500 for existing homes and $14,000 for new homes – both subsidies will be scaled back to $7,000 next year. What happens to property prices at the lower end is anyone’s guess although increases in interest rates must be factored in. Already there are strong suggestions that we will see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increase the cash rate in November and again in December. This is self explanatory when you look at the following graphs which provide a compelling reason as to why lower income households will definitely be vulnerable. Given it is a long weekend, here is the RBA Housing Market Developments Report (an interesting report).

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Quite amazing! We are presently experiencing record immigration growth and a major concern is that building approvals fell 0.1 per cent in August according to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures. Maybe a clue for the Henry Tax Retort (oops I meant Report). The RBA estimates that the underlying demand for new houses annually, is around 180,000 to 200,000 and we are not even close to meeting these consumer demands which explains the current housing patterns.

It is a very hard market to predict given the above data which identified national property values climbing by 2 per cent in August which is the highest monthly increase since RP Data – Rismark Home Value Indices began in January 2005.

Mosman is a much easier market to predict given that house volumes are at record lows and I’m not reading tea leaves either.

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay was again awarded the number one sales agency in the Richardson & Wrench network last Saturday night. A fantastic team effort and special thanks to the nights major sponsor the REA Group.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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2.10.09Robert Simeon12 Comments »

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I love an exclusive! Hang the expense (no pun intended), as we closely examine the impact of the global financial crisis on Sydney’s top – end housing markets. Courtesy of Dyson Austen & Co Pty Ltd, a leading property valuation company, we publish its comprehensive quarterly reports from Quarter 3 – July to September 2008 to Quarter 2 – April to June 2009. These are compelling results.

This is the first time these reports have been published (in the public domain) and what an insight it offers to better understand these mysterious market machinations. Simon Feilich, director of Dyson Austen also offers his expert commentary and independent predictions relating to Sydney’s (recession proof) rich and famous. We have also engaged the master of aerial photography, Tim Mooney,to share with you, a closer insight into some of these spectacular Sydney residential homes. Another amazing statistic is that Tim Mooney photographed approximately ninety per cent of these prestige properties – a clue for real estate agents and vendors. Aerial photographs are a must!

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

The quarterly Dyson Austen prestige residential survey, prepared for the Real Estate Institute of NSW for the last 4 quarters, has been released today and Director, Simon Feilich, said “ it indicates a reduction in gross sales per quarter of almost 45% from its peak of September 2008.The decrease in real terms was approx $110 million from $198 million”.

Dyson Austen Top 10 Sydney Prestige Residential Survey 2008 Q3 July – September

In this period interest rates decreased from 7.25 per cent to 7 per cent.

Top 10

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1. 23 – 25 Coolong Road Vaucluse $45.000 million
2. 23 Victoria Street Watsons Bay $28.100 million
3. 108 Wolseley Road Point Piper $27.000 – $28.000 million
4. 4 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $22.500 million
5. 114 Wolseley Road Point Piper $20.550 million
6. 92 – 94 Prince Alfred Parade Newport $14.600 million
7. 9 Caledonian Road Rose Bay $10.800 million
8. 15 Thompson Street Tamarama $10.500 million
9. 12A & 12C Crescent Street Hunters Hill $9.200 million
10. 56 & 57/56 Pirrama Road Pyrmont $9.140 million

Total $197.890 million the highest ever recorded.

Dyson Austen Top 10 Sydney Prestige Residential Survey 2008 Q4 October – December

In this period interest rates decreased from 7 per cent to 4.25 per cent.
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Top 10

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1. 4 & 6 Burran Avenue Mosman $19.750 million
2. 37 Wunulla Road Point Piper $18.450 million
3. 9 Wentworth Place Point Piper $14.900 million
4. 2 Loch Maree Place Vaucluse $12.500 million
5. 20 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $12.500 million*
6. 22 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $12.500 million*
7. 7 Wharf Road Vaucluse $12.000 – $13.000 million*
8. 39 – 40 Ocean Road Palm Beach $12.000 million
9. 43 Wharf Road Birchgrove $11.500 million
10. (=) 4 Wolseley Crescent Point Piper $10.500 million
(=) 1 Arbutus Street Mosman $10.500 million

Total $137,100 million the sixth highest ever recorded. * Approximately

Tim Mooney Photography

.www.timmooneyphotography.com

Dyson Austen Top 10 Sydney Prestige Residential Survey 2009 Q1 January – March

In this period interest rates decreased from 4.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent.
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Top 10

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1. 5 Rose Bay Avenue Bellevue Hill $17.000 million
2. 25 Victoria Street Watsons Bay $16.000 million
3. 8A Ginahgulla Road Bellevue Hill $15.000 million
4. 6 Buena Vista Avenue Mosman $13.200 million
5. 29 New South Head Road Vaucluse $12.900 million
6. 71 Yarranabbe Road Darling Point $12.600 million
7. 22 Rosemount Avenue Woollahra $11.800 million
8. 53 Fitzwilliam Road Vaucluse $9.000 million
9. 1A Arbutus Street Mosman $8.500 million
10. 86B Victoria Road Bellevue Hill $7.900 million

Total $123.900 million the ninth highest ever recorded. * Approximately

Dyson Austen Top 10 Sydney Prestige Residential Survey 2009 Q2 April – June

In this period interest rates decreased from 3.25 per cent to 3.00 per cent.
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Top 10

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1. 40 Wentworth Road Vaucluse $18.000 million
2. 2 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $16.450 million
3. 1129 Barrenjoey Road Palm Beach $12.000 million
4. 16 Tivoli Avenue Rose Bay $10.500 million*
5. 20 Tivoli Avenue Rose Bay $10.500 million*
6. 15A Burran Avenue Mosman $10.250 million*
7. 22A Vaucluse Road Vaucluse $9.000 million*
8. 44 – 46 Lang Road Centennial Park $8.300 million
9. 12/12 Onslow Avenue Elizabeth Bay $8.000 – $8.300 million*
10. 17 Trelawaney Street Woollahra $7.850 million

Total $110.115 million the fifteenth highest ever recorded. *Approximately

Agent in order of how many of the sales over 12 months they were involved in -

LJ Hooker Double Bay 8
Ray White Double Bay 7
Ken Jacobs 5
McGrath 4
Raine & Horne Double Bay 3
Richardson & Wrench Mosman 2
Knight Frank 2
Laing & Simmons Double Bay 2
LJ Hooker Palm Beach 2
Cassim 2
Richardson & Wrench Double Bay 2
Bradfield & Pritchard 1
Feldi 1
Goodyer Donnelly 1
LJ Hooker Avalon 1
Place 1
Raine & Horne Mosman 1
Ray White Lower North Shore 1
Richardson & Wrench Elizabeth Bay 1
Sotheby’s 1
Ward 1

Source: Dyson Austen

www.dysonausten.com.au
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40 sales for the year in dollar value order – July 2008 to June 2009

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23-25 Coolong Road Vaucluse $45.000 Q308 McGrath / Cassim
23 Victoria Street Watsons Bay $28.100 Q308 Ken Jacobs / RW DB
108 Wolseley Road Point Piper $27.500 Q308 R&W DB
4 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $22.500 Q308 RW DB
114 Wolseley Road Point Piper $20.550 Q308 LJH DB
4 & 6 Burran Avenue Mosman $19.750 Q408 R&H Mosman
37 Wunulla Road Point Piper $18.450 Q408 LJH DB / L&S DB
40 Wentworth Road Vaucluse $18.000 Q209 RWDB / Cassim
5 Rose Bay Avenue Bellevue Hill $17.000 Q109 LJH DB
2 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $16.450 Q209 RWDB
25 Victoria Street Watsons Bay $16.000 Q109 No agent
8A Ginahgulla Road Bellevue Hill $15.000 Q109 RWDB
9 Wentworth Place Point Piper $14.900 Q408 Sotheby’s / LJH DB
92-94 Prince Alfred Parade Newport $14.600 Q308 LJH Avalon
6 Buena Vista Avenue Mosman $13.200 Q109 R&W Mosman
29 New South Head Road Vaucluse $12.900 Q109 R&H DB
71 Yarranabbe Road Darling Point $12.600 Q109 R&H DB
2 Loch Maree Place Vaucluse $12.500 Q408 LJH DB
20 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $12.500 Q408 RW DB / Ken Jacobs
22 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $12.500 Q408 Ken Kacobs
7 Wharf Road Vaucluse $12.500 Q408 R&W DB
39-40 Ocean Road Palm Beach $12.000 Q408 Knight Frank / LJH PB
1129 Barenjoey Road Palm Beach $12.000 Q209 RW DB
22 Rosemont Avenue Woollahra $11.800 Q109 McGrath
43 Wharf Road Birchgrove $11.500 Q408 No agent
9 Caledonian Road Rose Bay $10.800 Q308 RW DB
4 Wolseley Crescent Point Piper $10.500 Q408 R&H DB
1 Arbutus Street Mosman $10.500 Q408 RW LNS
16 Tivoli Avenue Rose Bay $10.500 Q209 LJH DB
20 Tivoli Avenue Rose Bay $10.500 Q209 LJH DB
15 Thompson Street Tamarama $10.500 Q308 Goodyer Donnelly
15A Burran Avnue Mosman $10.250 Q209 Ken Jacobs / R&W Mosman
12A & 12C Crescent Street Hunters Hill $9.200 Q308 Ward Partners
56 & 57/56 Pirrama Road Pyrmont $9.140 Q308 Feldi
53 Fitzwilliam Road Vaucluse $9.000 Q109 L&S DB
22A Vaucluse Road Vaucluse $9.000 Q209 Ken Jacobs
1A Arbutus Street Mosman $8.500 Q109 McGrath
44-46 Lang Road Centennial Park $8.300 Q209 Knight Frank / B&P
12/12 Onslow Avenue Elizabeth Bay $8.150 Q209 R&W EB/PP
86B Victoria Road Bellevue Hill $7.900 Q109 Place / LJH DB
17 Trelawney Street Woollahra $7.850 Q209 McGrath

Source: Dyson Austen

www.dysonausten.com.au

So let’s extrapolate this data. Dyson Austen Director Simon Feilich said “This takes us back to the June Quarter 2006 which had a lower quarterly total of approx $88 million.”

“In viewing the top 40 sales for the year, the top 5 all occurred in the 3rd quarter 2008, and as the world global financial crises got worse so too did this sector.”

“The five lowest sales all occurred in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2009 and were as low as $7.5500 million.”

“One of the strengths in the September 2008 quarter was due to the $A dollar collapsing by approximately 17.5 %.”

“The future is hard to predict and revolves around the buoyancy of the equity market which has seen rapid increases since its lows of 2009.”

“Should there be no “w” in the economy but rather the “v” which some commentators believe is the case, continuing strength in the equity market and increased funds available in the lending markets , with unemployment not decreasing I think the worst is over.”

For those unsure of this “w” and “v” language, “w” = double dip in the economy, a recovery, then another collapse and “v” = is what we have at the moment where recovery continues in an upward trend.

It’s all about confidence – the National Australia Bank (NAB) this week released its monthly business survey’s measure of business confidence which increased 8 index points to plus – 18 points in August. The highest level in almost six years (2003).

This week’s unemployment figures identified that it has steadied although it should be noted that there still remains some degree of volatility and hopefully it has peaked at 5.7 per cent – well below the projected 8 per cent.

Carsales.com floated this week which was a great test for our financial markets. Business Spectator reported. “There would have been a lot of relieved investment bankers and promoters after Carsales.com drove smoothly onto the ASX lists. The listing, the first big initial float since the financial crisis erupted, was seen as a vital tone-setter for the pipeline of IPOs, some larger, to come.

A solid gain of about 10 per cent on the $3.50 issue price would be regarded as a ‘just about right’ outcome – not too big a gain to upset the relatively small group of pre-existing shareholders who sold into the offer process but big enough to make the subscribers content.”

That, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of this week’s report and remember where you read it first. My special thanks to Simon Feilich and Tim Mooney for their much appreciated assistance with the preparation of this week’s edition of Virtual Realty News.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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11.09.09Robert Simeon1 Comment »

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The Australian economy is booming with the good news this week from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) that our gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6 per cent (seasonally adjusted). There were no downward GDP revisions for the March quarter which remained at 0.4 per cent and I fail to understand why the global financial crisis (GFC) is still being compared to the worst global economic downturn since the Great Depression. The recession of the early nineties plays it off a break, but the early nineties could hardly be described as global either. Unemployment this time didn’t climb to eleven plus per cent (5.8 per cent as at July) and interest rates today remain at 49 year lows.

‘The Punch’ (another great online read) – Clive Mathieson wrote, What Recession? “What a lovely recession we’re having. Or not having”. I do agree however, with the school of thought that we will see some economic tremors along the way and this is inevitable given the sudden impact of the GFC.

Just like the Y2K computer scare – remember that? A global electronic meltdown was predicted when we moved from 31 December 1999 to 1 January 2000, over concerns that (to save computer disk and memory space), computer softwares were using two digits to represent a year (98 instead of 1998). For example the difference between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 1999 could be calculated as -100 years as against one day. On the stroke of midnight on 31 December 1999 it was predicted that this computer bug would see businesses and industry decimated and we would see planes falling from the sky. On the stroke of midnight, planes flew, fireworks went off over Sydney Harbour and computers worked fine.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Alan Kohler wrote another wonderful article “Bulls at the Gate” on his Business Spectator website. “But Australia’s June quarter GDP is important for two reasons: it confirms that Australia has not had a recession at all, and indeed the economy has now expanded for 18 consecutive years; and secondly it will help ensure that business and consumer confidence remains strong.”

As quick as a flash Wayne Swan announced that our economic growth (Australia has been the best performing advanced economy over the past year) was a result of the stimulus. Earlier in the week he said that opposition treasury spokesman, Joe Hockey, must be “deaf, dumb and blind – if he thinks the Government’s economic stimulus is not working.”

I did like this comment “There are tradies all over the country who are working on stimulus projects. It’s adding to confidence in a way that we don’t see anywhere else in the world.” True Wayne – but other countries are actually in recession – we’re not! Then we had some economic speak from the King of Spin, Ruddy Fantastic, who said “The figures (GDP) that have been released today indicate that we’ve got a long way to go when it comes to economic recovery.” Translated, that means we have a long way to go to get his budget into surplus again.

Leo Shanahan penned this beauty in The Punch “Rudd’s secret spending freeze: no soup for you”

Whilst on long roads, spare a thought for the Y2K equivalent of Australian economics Steve Keen who, in my opinion, irresponsibly predicted on nearly every available media outlet, that Australian house prices would fall by 40 per cent and unemployment would shoot through the roof to “depressionary” levels. This prompted Rory Robertson (interest rate strategist) to jump from the factory floor at Macquarie Bank to bet Steve Keen that if his predictions proved correct he would walk from Canberra to Mount Kosciusko. To read about the bet, Business Spectator filed this story by economist Christopher Joye – “Let the Kosciusko march begin” For the record, Rory Robertson was spot – on with his GFC commentaries.

This takes me to the cash rate which remained on hold when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), met this week and decided to leave it at 3.00 per cent. The cash rate has remained at 3.00 per cent for five consecutive months and next month, I predict it will move to 3.25 per cent – the cost of bank funding is going up not down.

Rory Robertson has also predicted a 25bp increase on October 6 based on the latest data identifying a strong rise in house prices. He wrote “With the RBA reportedly keen to start tightening its loosest – ever policy stance at the earliest – available opportunity, the combination of (a) rising GDP (b) a brighter investment picture and, now (c) stronger growth in house prices, might well prove irresistible. The “economic emergency” clearly is over, “nipped in the bud” by early timely and forceful monetary – and fiscal – policy action.”

I believe he may have been referring to the July RP Data – Rismark Hedonic Index results that revealed Australian home values are now 1.8 per cent above their previous peak in February 2008. The intrigue is building for our Mosman markets given we have record high rents and record low levels of stock – better known as a heated market. Stay tuned.

Quite amazing that should the RBA increase the cash rate next month, it would be moving in a totally different direction to Fort Fumble – Ruddy Fantastic’s empire! That’s it! Ruddy Fantastic is out and now he will be called The Emperor – given his ‘sweet and sour’ patterns of behaviour.

Spare a thought for ‘big’ Johnny Della Bonka at Fort Crumble, where we saw the battered draw bridge rise (figuratively speaking). This prompted a vote of no confidence by the opposition in parliament this week – which failed. Our elected NSW government failed to produce yet another leadership challenge by the Bonka. Watch Frank “cranky” Sartor exercise his recently acquired power- play: the funnier side of politics where the patients challenge the asylum. The Emperor is far from impressed.

This week, Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) released another great online application for our clients – ‘Mohbe’ – mobile phone real estate. Mohbe allows real estate agencies to have their own agency branded mobile phone website for their property listings. The mobile phone websites are viewable through any mobile phone which has an Internet browser and access to the Internet. RWM is Mohbe’s first client in NSW to offer this application. Take a test drive www.mohbe.com/124232

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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4.09.09Robert SimeonNo Comments »

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The global financial crisis (GFC) in Australia was short and quick and now Australia has to manage its inherited financial flu, courtesy of inexperienced politicians shooting from the hip (your hip pocket).

With the benefit of hindsight, the global financial crisis (GFC) was not equal (or even close) to the Great Depression (Rudd/Swan analogies via Fort Fumble (Federal government), where, rash/panic policy decisions have sent our national recovery back decades. I stand convinced that businesses have led the road to recovery – not cash splashes. Just one negative quarter of economic growth (March quarter) does not (and should not) equate to over $300 billion of debt.

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Tim Mooney Photography – Palm Beach & Palm Beach Lighthouse

www.timmooneyphotography.com

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took a totally different read on our economy and massaged the cash rate down, opting for measured reductions over panic policy. RBA – “In contrast to most other developed economies, indicators of household activity in Australia have been fairly resilient over the past year. Retail sales and the housing market have been quite buoyant since late 2008 and there has been a significant rebound in consumer sentiment, particularly over the last few months.” With the recession now abating, the next move with interest rates will be up not down.

Given that the vast majority of businesses received absolutely no financial benefit from Fort Fumble’s financial based recovery plan, the question now is, when will an Australian Federal government next return a budget surplus? In all probability 2020. That means eleven years of lost opportunities to build a better and stronger economy.

A recession (March quarter) is no excuse for the embarrassing rhetoric from elected politicians when in front of a camera. If the majority of those running businesses had listened to Fort Fumble’s predictions of doom and gloom (Great Depression 2) unemployment would have been closer to ten per cent. Fort Fumble panicked but fortunately, business managers relied on their own aptitude, intelligence and readings of their respective business markets. Then again, they are not playing with and wasting other people’s money.

Just as interesting are journalists who don’t ask elected politicians if they still stand by their previous predictions regarding the GFC, which prompted unprecedented national debt levels. Just as interesting again, is that the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index rose 4.0 per cent in August to 113.4 points which lifts the index to its highest level since October 2007, when it recorded 115.3 points.

Much like the innuendo that half of Mosman’s houses (Mosman has 4,900 houses approximately) were secretly on the market when anecdotal sales evidence could only identify 275 (November 2008) that were actually for sale. Today, when I look at www.domain.com.au Mosman has just 75 houses for sale which leads us to predict that house prices will jump by a ten per cent minimum in the run through to Christmas. Of the 75 houses currently available, 24 have been on the market for less than one month, 10 have been on the market for less than two months and 41 have been on the market for over three months.

The real estate industry is quickly moving into overdrive with the leading online agencies (those who invested in the future with their own money) becoming the preferred option for vendors).

PricewaterhouseCoopers recently released its Entertainment & Media Outlook 2009-2013 report which predicts growth at just 1.7 per cent as against the previous average annual spend of 5.5 per cent. It will be very difficult for traditional media to bounce back when vendors are opting for online campaigns over more expensive print campaigns. Everything points to the internet. This is exactly how agents are increasing their online presence with database client communications. I will make a prediction that over the next 24 months, a quarter of Australian real estate agencies will close down simply because they have fallen by the wayside with technology. This is the stark reality of changing times where nine years on our online media platform convictions/predictions are now a reality.

Electronic listings for ‘homes open for inspection’ are now being fast tracked. Then again, Richardson & Wrench Mosman (RWM) has been doing this for nine years and we were the first real estate agency to release this industry media platform.

My thanks to Steve and Richard for writing the last three editions while I took my mid-year break. Unfortunately, I failed in my efforts to secure that Aussie Bar table mat, because they have now sold out – so I am back at Christmas to secure this valued commodity.

Plenty of clues in the Mosman housing market at this point in time. RWM currently has 25 per cent of the Mosman housing market on our online sales platform which coincides with the fact that RWM has sold the greatest number of homes during the GFC – then again how many weekly market updates are in your inbox?

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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14.08.09Robert Simeon23 Comments »

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The Australian real estate market is an amazing landscape of media commentaries that although initially, in the limelight, have now been be deemed unreliable. Of course the manipulation of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has led to a media storm where hired guns are in retreat – and licking (terminal) media wounds. So I could not resist the temptation to re-visit the human headlines relating to our real estate industry since the onset of the GFC.

As Alan Kay once said “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”

Before the swine flu, real estate markets were subjected to unrelenting forecasts that simply never came to fruition – enter Professor Steve Keen (no doubt humming the words of “Climb every Mountain”) the King of property forecast bloopers. On November 28, 2008 Keen predicted zero interest rates within two years and a forty (40) per cent drop in house prices within five years (double the drop in the United States). Macquarie Bank interest rate strategist, Rory Robertson, declared that “Dr Keen’s gloomy predictions of an Australian housing market plunge had a one per cent chance of being right.” This then prompted Robertson to challenge Keen that the loser would wear a T-shirt saying “I was hopelessly wrong on home prices! Ask me how.” And make a 200km trek from Canberra to Mt Kosciusko. For the record Rory Robertson thus far, has been spot – on with his market predictions.

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Tim Mooney Photography – Manly beach back to Sydney CBD

timmooneyphotography.com
www.sydneywaterfronts.com

When the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met this week, it was prediction time. What would it do with the official cash rate? It didn’t go to zero but remained (for the third month in a row) at three (3) per cent. Whilst the RBA has strong concerns with unemployment, inflation is the growing concern (as I predicted in last week’s edition). RBA governor, Glenn Stevens, said, “The Board’s current view is that the outlook for inflation allows some scope for further easing of monetary policy, if needed.”

The TD – Securities/Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose 0.4 per cent in June, following an 0.3 per cent fall in May and no change in April. Annual inflation (measured by the gauge) identified that the rate in May was 1.5 per cent. The RBA’s target range is to contain inflation between 2 to 3 per cent. The inflation accelerants to watch will be petrol, food and household rents which are repeat offenders in the Australian economy.

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Figures released this week by The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that, for the eighth month in a row, real estate buyers took out 2.2 per cent more home loans in May (up again from the 0.9 per cent April figures). It should also be noted, that first – home buyers increased from 28.6 percent in April, to 29.5 per cent in May. The Federal Government’s first – home owner’s grant is a concern (another prediction, another story and another day).

The one thing missing from our markets (until June) has been confidence so it came as little surprise to see consumer confidence surging in July to its highest level in eighteen months. The Westpac – Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment rose in the month to 109.4 points, seasonally adjusted. The index in July was up 38.5 per cent from a year ago, prompting Westpac Banking chief economist to announce “This is unquestionably a stunning result.” On the back of our $61, 238,200 sales last month, it would be reasonable to suggest that we are not witnessing predictions, rather market affirmations – with no conspiracy theories.

Of greater concern is the continuing decline in construction where house building contracted for seventeen (17) consecutive months in June. Detached home sales decreased by 9.9 per cent in NSW which is based on delayed projects and difficult credit conditions. Too hard for our elected politicians to fathom – even though they launched ‘Nation Building’. Simply put, you can’t put a plaque on a house although you can on a school or a hospital. It is abundantly clear that Ruddy Fantastic has stuffed this up and many are calling Nation Building ‘Plaque Building’ – ah egos at work!

One prediction I did make some time ago was that Google (the online bible) would enter the Australian property market and take on www.domain.com.au and www.realestate.com.au with a free service. Google launched Google Maps at 3.00 pm on Monday this week and the exclusive announcement can be read at www.business2.com.au I have uploaded the video Google release for your perusal or you can see for yourself by clicking on http://maps.google.com.au/

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) is ranked at number one on Google for Mosman real estate searches. I just love it when a plan comes together!

Fort Crumble (NSW government) has been active in the real estate market busily selling our police stations to off-set mismanagement and dwindling coffers. Nine police stations (including Mosman) and another 200 buildings and parcels of land, including the Sydney Fish Market, are now being listed and sold by Fort Crumble’s real estate agent (not RWM). Obviously our inept premier expects our police officers to work from home to keep overheads down.

The unemployment rate was announced this week with a moderate rise, to see 0.1 ppt to 5.8 per cent (prediction 5.9 per cent) NSW (6.5%), Victoria (6.0%), Qld (5.4%), WA (5.1%), SA (5.4%)and Tasmania (4.7%).

A prediction on NSW labor being re-elected? No hindsight required however, there is always the Hope Factor. Many subscribers would have seen television advertorials boasting contributions to a building and jobs creation programme for the state of NSW (another huge tax payer cost). The alternative is to give away our state assets simply because those involved were not intelligent enough to manage our economy in the first place.

It’s no wonder NSW leads Australia in bankruptcy when our very own elected government is staring down the barrel of a Part X agreement.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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10.07.09Robert Simeon4 Comments »