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The only problem with writing a weekly blog in the present environment is finding a place to start, because of the constant bungling at both Fort Crumble (NSW Government) and Fort Fumble (Federal Government).

Let’s start with our consistently high performing Fort Crumble where dumping the Metro cost $500 million according to Premier Pristine (Kristina Keneally) “The CBD Metro was a nearly $5 billion project we wanted to be sure as a government it represented value for money.” So we have a $200 million compensation plan from builder Lend Lease and another $300 million had already been spent on the doomed rail wreck. Fort Crumble’s greatest tax payer debacle?

Premier Pristine had her defining plumage ruffled further when she was advised Rudd wants $80 million back as metro bill grows so the train wreck bill has apparently now climbed to $5.3 billion. The Infrastructure Australia money was among dozens of grants shelled out to projects across Australia. The submission by NSW was considered the worst of any of the states. Consequently, only money for scoping studies was handed out. A $5.3 billion tax payer Yes Minister – no brainer!

The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) then took time out from his Doctorate of Medicine studies and if his radical diagnosis proceeds, based on his elective political surgery for our ailing health systems, our States and Territories will need a second opinion. Reductions in Government Spending Tax (GST) appear to be thwarting The Emperor’s prognosis and the diagnosis is a referendum for Dr. Krudd. A bummer for The Emperor as his economic mind sadly lacks the “Midas Touch”.

Buy Print

What a brilliant capture this is. It appears that everything in Australia is climbing. We asked Tim Mooney to make sure that everything was colour coordinated so he had to wait for an aqua car. Each and every business faces a climb back from the GFC and how appropriate is this picture. We have had a number of subscribers contacting us to purchase photos (see our Buy Print above).

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Big Bazza O’Barrell launched his election slogan for next year’s NSW election One year out, O’Farrell picks election slogan “Make NSW Number 1 Again”. Fixing NSW’s economy is the management challenge of our time, wrote Jeff Kennett NSW should look south of the border for the way forward. Jeff Kennett said “I have been asked what I think is necessary and essential for NSW to start rebuilding. It is simple enough, in theory.”

“A new government must be elected, if for no other reason than to end – once and for all – the poisonous culture of self interest that exists among the majority who make up the current government.”

“The alternative government will, over the next 12 months complete (I assume they have well and truly started)– the work needed to immediately commence the reform programme, once in office.”

“This will require a once – in – a generation programme, similar to what we put in place over two terms in office in Victoria.”

A scathing review – “The cost of this entrenched period of failure to NSW and Australia has been monumental. Not only has NSW failed to keep abreast with the advances in thinking and technology, but all basic services that should be provided by government have deteriorated compared with those in other states.”

Charlie Aitken wrote in his Under the Southern Cross – “The political waters are clouded by secret agendas and the political landscape is generally a minefield of broken promises and policy failures. In addition, with a few exceptions, it often appears that the main aim of a politician is to gain re-election rather than pursue genuine political reform.”

The report identifies “Bad Policies” – so look at the failed Emissions Trading System, Pink Batts $2.400 billion debacle (which now requires another $200 million for stuff – up corrections) Fuel Watch and Grocery Watch, just to name a few. Throw in the now growing school halls bungled programme – which will gain greater momentum over time as Ray Hadley at 2GB keeps probing. Julia Gillard says schools building programme saved nation from recession and NSW scraps Hastings Public School project in back flip after critical audit of proposed COLA where a covered outdoor learning area would cost $954,000. A similar structure cost $78,000 back in 2003. Little wonder everything is blocked in the Senate. Government incompetence does resonate throughout the business community – which impacts economic sentiment, growth and confidence.

Bright economic outlook for Australia – Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Philip Lowe at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said underlying inflation had “moderated significantly” and was expected to decline from 3.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent during 2010. This means that interest rates will move back to normal levels so the 49 – year low of three per cent won’t (in our lifetime) be seen again. Get set for a bank gouging bonanza given Westpac chief warns of need to raise rates although GFC not over, says ANZ chief. Get set for a roller coaster ride in 2010.

Australia’s property bubble: it’s here” it’s official: 60 per cent of investors believe Australia has a property bubble. A confluence of housing shortages, low interest rates, speculative fervour and last year’s move by the Rudd Government to relax the rule of foreign ownership on real estate, has turbo – charged house prices.” I assume they are comparing the property markets to quarter 4 – 2008 although it should be noted that during the global financial crisis (GFC) it was speculated that half of Mosman houses were for sale (2,450) homes and it peaked at 195 homes. I did like this piece in the article “But as John Maynard Keynes famously said: “A market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” So true – the Mosman market is presently skittish and we are seeing a dramatic increase of foreign buyers moving into our markets.

I have absolutely no idea why The Emperor decided to make the Australian property markets international over local? “The increase in foreign purchasers cannot be underestimated. This abolished mandatory reporting of such acquisitions in a bid to “enhance flexibility in the market”. Absolute rubbish and bulls&%#!

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) are proud to offer “Glen Osmond” to the market place – C 1901 an iconic Mosman home set on a grand estate – “Glen Osmond“.

Is the lifting of foreign ownership a sound decision? We look forward to reading your thoughts on our blog. I tag the politicians so Media Monitors pass on to them, all the comments on our blog.

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Our Australian population hit 22,000,000 this week according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) – so what does that do to this supposed bubble?

Cheers, ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

This week’s RWM open for inspections Click Here

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26.03.10Robert Simeon20 Comments »

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In real estate we speak about position, position and position. Sometimes when politicians appear on television, their position can be an embarrassment because, although they can talk the talk, they can’t walk the walk! The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) found himself in that exact position when he appeared on Q&A – Monday night on that ABC at Old Parliament House, Canberra. Journalists had an absolute field day (as did viewers) “At the end of the day, the kids caned Kevin on Q&A” by David Penberthy in The Punch (another great daily online read). I well remember noticing this point. “One of the funniest things about the show was how so many of the young people in the crowd smirked in amusement at Rudd’s Ruddisms – “there’s no magic wand”, “but you know something”, and the ever – present “at the end of the day”, and his use of hand gestures and the sweeping arm to explain the scary arrival of the GFC.” He was trying to gild his lily which wilted after approximately five minutes of prudent interrogation by our country’s future leaders!

They say “nothing makes it harder to remember campaign promises than getting elected” and The Emperor would have observed that his Fort Fumble is now under greater scrutiny and attack from all sides. The Daily Telegraph ran the following stories “Kevin Rudd’s 795 days of empty promises” and “Kevin Rudd’s report card: could do better”. A tough week for The Emperor or is it just that politicians make headlines running for something or running from something?

No doubt he will be very fit by the time he takes us to the polls this year given so many empty promises have glaringly emerged with our “economic conservative” Prime Minister. Joe Hockey fared much better as “Giant Tinkerbell” tutu, magic wand and crown.

Surfs Up! As too are wobbegong attacks although I did chuckle when a witness described the shark as a Great White – although these surfers look unperturbed whilst catching waves at Manly Beach

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Tim Mooney Photography

So from politics, let’s move to property and performance where we mark the report card for Cremorne house results from 2007 to 2009 (next week we examine Neutral Bay houses).

CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2009 to 31 DECEMBER 2009

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• Total number offered – 91 (Mosman 334)
• Total number of sales recorded – 87 (Mosman 303)
• Total value sold – $157,197,000 (Mosman $668,966,377)
• Public Auction – 25 properties to a total value of $38,727,500
• Private Treaty – 62 properties to a total value of $118,469,500
• Median Price – $1,450,000 (Mosman $2,000,000)
• Average Price – $1,871,392 (Mosman $2,397,728)
• Highest Sale – $13,500,000 (RWM)

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CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2008 to 31 DECEMBER 2008

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• Total number offered – 96 (Mosman 360)
• Total number of sales recorded – 80 (Mosman 287)
• Total value sold – $164,864,550 (Mosman $774,865,612)
• Public Auction – 24 properties to a total value of $48,531,000
• Private Treaty – 56 properties to a total value of $116,333,550
• Median Price – $1,650,000 (Mosman $2,000,000)
• Average Price – $2,113,648 (Mosman $2,738,041)
• Highest Sale – $8,280,000 (RWM)

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CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2007 to 31 DECEMBER 2007

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• Total number offered – 100 (Mosman 456)
• Total number of sales recorded – 96 (Mosman 412)
• Total value sold – $223,006,433 (Mosman $1,182,372,720)
• Public Auction – 28 properties to a value of $52,452,600
• Private Treaty – 68 properties to a value of $174,861,433
• Median Price – $1,700,000 (Mosman $2,300,000)
• Average Price – $ 2,347,436 (Mosman $2,869,836)
• Highest Sale – $15,000,000 (new Cremorne record)

Source: Australian Property Monitors

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SUMMARY CREMORNE HOUSE PRICES FROM 2007 TO 2009

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Note that for Mosman and Cremorne in 2008 and 2009, the years of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) posted the highest recorded sales for each year. During the GFC, Cremorne traded as usual 2009 – 87 sales, 2008 produced 80 sales and 2007 recorded 96 sales. Mosman bunkered down 2009 – 303 sales, 2008 – 287 sales and 2007 – 412. It should also be noted that Cremorne posted the highest sale in 2009 at $13,500,000 over Mosman $13,200,000 (both vendors are Virtual Realty News subscribers).

So Mosman property and performance was back in the spotlight this week when it made the front page of The Sydney Morning Herald . “No more withdrawal symptoms as bankers again splash the cash” and “A bonus is a must, says the real estate crowd” . I would add that our 2010 market is too early to call – a key clue for subscribers to our daily email alerts will be our under offer and sold alerts – our website is now the Mosman sales barometer.

Peter Martin from The Sydney Morning Herald sent another warning to The Emperor when he wrote “Interest rate rises in Labor hands” – “The head of the Reserve Bank has held out the prospect of continuing low interest rates, as long as Labor sticks to its pledge to restrain spending.” Which is highly unlikely in an election year although I did chuckle when I read, “Joyce link between rates, ‘gross over-simplification’, says Henry”.

Somewhat ironic, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) saying that Labor again accumulated debt and the Howard regime paid it off in seventeen years of unprecedented economic growth. This again points me to the Henry Tax Report which is as mysterious as a government grant from The Emperor in a Liberal seat – it never happens. Makes one wonder just why this report (six weeks since its release) remains highly confidential.

What is not confidential is that RWM no longer offer properties for rent. Our total focus now is on sales and Agentpoint has delivered what I consider the smartest homepage in the real estate industry.

We are proud to further develop our online business – as our business is your business.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Balmoral real estate, Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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12.02.10Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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Twelve months ago all we were looking for were “green shoots”. Our economic gardeners are now embarking on a crash – course of selective pruning (and I’m not talking ‘whipper snippers’). Australia appears to have bloomed too early and the economic chainsaws are sharpening their jaws. Now it is not the “buck”, rather the bulbs, that are firmly placed in the economic gardening gloves of The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) – let’s hope he has a green thumb!

Yes, the last twelve months have been a roller coaster ride that continues to gain momentum and what remains to be seen is whether as an economy, we can stay on the tracks – the alternative is not pretty if one is reliant on the cash rate remaining low. Many borrowers will find out first hand, that fortune does not always favour the brave when it comes to bricks and mortar.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced this week, that consumer prices increased by one per cent during the September quarter which was a direct result of higher prices from electricity, petrol and utility prices. Fort Fumble treasurer, Wayne Swan, was quick to emphasise that the economy was continuing to operate below capacity. Capacity is this week’s economic measure of confusion – too much stimulus, too much debt, too much immigration and possibly too much spin. Each and every cash rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is a further burden to consumers and property prices have eclipsed recent records (we all know this is defined by capacity).

Is this Sydney’s coldest beach? Competitors in the World Masters Games thought so as the water was too cold – now they are demanding a refund. Photo: Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

So Wayne Swan thinks our economy is operating below capacity? Australian Property Monitors (APM) yesterday released its September House Price Series Report and here are the key statistics.

• Nationally, house prices jumped +3.7 per cent and unit prices + 3.4 per cent in September quarter
• Strongest quarterly growth in house prices since 2003
• National house prices up 7.1 per cent in 2009
• Melbourne experienced strongest house price growth, up 12.3 per cent in last six months
• House and unit prices rise in every capital city in September quarter

Wow – if this is an economy running under capacity, just imagine what happens when it grows with confidence. The Housing Industry Association (HIA) announced this week, that new home sales fell in September and nationwide sales dropped 4.5 per cent which is in direct contrast to a 11.4 per cent increase in August.

Source: Australian Property Monitors

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Source: Australian Property Monitors

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This week Taylor Fidan and I extrapolated all house, semi, apartment, and townhouse sales in Mosman from January 1, 2006 to October 19, 2009 – in total 3,054 sales. Here are our findings (houses this week and apartments next week). I wish the property data aggregators would offer this data as it is very time consuming to compile but, then again, such information has never before been presented on a public domain. We present another Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) first.

Source: DomainPropertyData
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MOSMAN HOUSES/SEMIS SOLD – I JANUARY 2006 TO 31 DECEMBER 2006

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0 – $1,000,000

44 sales

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$1,000,000 – $2,000,000

177 sales

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$2,000,000 – $3,000,000

97 sales

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$3,000,000 – $4,000,000

49 sales

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$4,000,000 – $5,000,000

27 sales

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$5,000,000 – $6,000,000

9 sales

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$6,000,000 – $7,000,000

10 sales

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$7,000,000 – $8,000,000

3 sales

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$8,000,000 – $9,000,000

1 sale

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$9,000,000 – $10,000,000

1 sale

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Above $10,000,000

5 sales

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Total

423 sales

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Undisclosed

22 sales

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MOSMAN HOUSES/SEMIS SOLD – 1 JANUARY 2007 TO 31 DECEMBER 2007

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0 – $1,000,000

30 sales

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$1,000,000 – $2,000,000

144

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$2,000,000 – $3,000,000

115 sales

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$3,000,000 – $4,000,000

53 sales

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$4,000,000 – $5,000,000

39 sales

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$5,000,000 – $6,000,000

13 sales

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$6,000,000 – $7,000,000

10 sales

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$7,000,000 – $8,000,000

9 sales

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$8,000,000 – $9,000,000

1 sale

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$9,000,000 – $10,000,000

2 sales

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Above $10,000,000

10 sales

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Total

426 sales

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Undisclosed

30 sales

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MOSMAN HOUSES/SEMIS SOLD – 1 JANUARY 2008 TO 31 DECEMBER 2008

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0 – $1,000,000

26 sales

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$1,000,000 – $2,000,000

110 sales

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$2,000,000 – $3,000,000

78 sales

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$3,000,000 – $4,000,000

37 sales

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$4,000,000 – $5,000,000

27 sales

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$5,000,000 – $6,000,000

14 sales

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$6,000,000 – $7,000,000

2 sales

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$7,000,000 – $8,000,000

5 sales

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$8,000,000 – $9,000,000

3 sales

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$9,000,000 – $10,000,000

3 sales

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Above $10,000,000

3 sales

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Total

308 sales

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Undisclosed

52 sales

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MOSMAN HOUSES/SEMIS SOLD – 1 JANUARY 2009 TO 19 OCTOBER 2009

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0 – $1,000,000

19 sales

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$1,000,000 – $2,000,000

77 sales

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$2,000,000 – $3,000,000

38 sales

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$3,000,000 – $4,000,000

20 sales

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$4,000,000 – $5,000,000

9 sales

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$5,000,000 – $6,000,000

2 sales

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$6,000,000 – $7,000,000

1 sale

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$7,000,000 – $8,000,000

1 sale

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$8,000,000 – $9,000,000

1 sale

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$9,000,000 – $10,000,000

0 sales

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Above $10,000

2 sales

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Total

170 sales

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Undisclosed

73 sales

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2009 is still a work in progress – however it should be noted that the volume of sales remains on the conservative side. We would be lying (not our style) to suggest that the Mosman market is also in boom with houses.

UPDATE

– last week we reported 2009 Mosman house/semi sales were at 243 sales with a value of $483,925,627. We can advise that this week, sales increased to 258 with a value of $512,781,127 (still $321,596,485 in deficit from last year’s total house/semi sales). The 73 undisclosed sales (thus far) may reveal a few secrets.

Which leads me back to capacity – where it is abundantly clear that the cost of living is on the rise and it would come as little surprise to see the inflation genie touch five per cent again.

The capacity to understand as against the capacity to compete beyond ones means is clearly evidenced by sales volume in Mosman – arguably the strongest property municipality market in Australia.

In summation – I draw your attention to this recent commentary by Alan Jones at radio 2GB.
“… a note that was sent to me which explains to me that six leading members of the Government from Mr. Rudd down, the top six have a collective work experience of 181 years, but only 13 in the private sector.

If you take out those 13 years the number that were spent as trade union lawyers that total 11, of the 181 years only two years were spent in the private sector.

So the people, who will rack up a net Federal debt of a minimum of $188 billion, the highest in our history, have virtually no experience in business.

So out of the 181 years:

- No years spent running their own business – no years spent starting their own business – no years spent as a director of a family business or company – no years as a director of a public company – no years in a senior position in a public company – no years in a senior company in a private company – no years working in corporate finance – no years in corporate or business restructuring – no years in or with a bank – no years of experience in capital markets – no years in a stock – broking firm – no years in negotiating debt facilities with banks – no years running a small business – no years at the World Bank or IMF or OECD – no years in Treasury or Finance.”

Not sure if the Opposition could improve much on these statistics either.

The Emperor promised at the last election campaign, that he would personally deliver one million computers to all year 9 to 12 students within Australia. Currently, just 150,000 computers have been delivered – must be another capacity problem with too much |Ctrl – Alt – Delete|. Maybe he should have focussed on the school band – if bulls@&% was music, you would be a brass band. Alas, I guess The Emperor is too busy taking over our health system – oops! that also appears to be on |Ctrl – Alt – Delete| too.

Cheers and best of luck at the Melbourne Cup – although the odds are stronger on another RBA rate increase. Plenty of capacity growth there – although if the RBA has rates at emergency levels, when does it then become a capacity emergency for borrowers? That would be found on the perceived green (and greener) grass of home. A home is not exactly sweet as it could be gone tomorrow for some. That too, is known in modern media as |Ctrl – Alt – Delete |.

In times of “green shoots” for new housing opportunities, does fortune favour the brave? After all, it was a first, when elected governments started teasing first home buyers with cash hand – outs.

^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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30.10.09Robert Simeon1 Comment »

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Conspiracy theories, myths and madness where property markets were maligned and/or aligned to the meltdown from global financial crisis (GFC) – so where to now? From an agency perspective, it became patently obvious that in the modern era (new media) a very strong online platform is essential and this is why Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) has been the Mosman market sales leader in 2009. Our marketing and technology strategies are different to other agencies – our point of difference.

Each week we monitor our online positioning on Google where we have organically positioned our business to be number one on its keyword search criteria for our demographic market such as Mosman real estate. For example, last week’s Google Analytics for RWM identified that direct traffic to RWM is 40.80 per cent, traffic from search engines is 39.91 per cent and referring sites is 19.30 per cent – so our very own website is beating the search engines (just) which is exactly how an online business should operate.

This week we have extrapolated the house and apartment sales data from www.domainpropertydata.com.au for all Mosman real estate sales from 1 January 2006 to 19 October 2009 – which we believe endorses our ‘buy’ recommendation. If you don’t agree, our blog is there for your opinion – otherwise known as freedom of speech.

Photo – Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

No houseboat sales from the GFC either – Mosman battened down the hatches.

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MOSMAN HOUSE & SEMI SALES 1 JANUARY 2009 – 19 OCTOBER 2009

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Part Year
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Total Sales – 243*
Total Value Sold – $483,925,627
Median Price – $1,950,000
Average Price – $2,372,184
Highest Price – $13,200,000 (RWM)
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*This figure is incomplete as some completed sales are yet to be recorded so factor in an additional 10 – 20 % sales growth.
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MOSMAN HOUSE & SEMI SALES 1 JANUARY 2008 – 31 DECEMBER 2008

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Full Year – all sales completed and recorded
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Total Sales – 360
Total Value Sold – $834,377,612
Median Price – $2,220,000
Average Price – $2,709,018
Highest Price – $14,700,000 (RWM)
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MOSMAN HOUSE & SEMI SALES 1 JANUARY 2007 – 31 DECEMBER 2007

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Total Sales – 456
Total Value Sold – $1,230,497,720
Median Price – $2,305,000
Average Price – $2,874,994
Highest Price – $22,500,000
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MOSMAN HOUSE & SEMI SALES 1 JANUARY 2006 – 31 DECEMBER 2006

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Total Sales – 445
Total Value Sold – $1,037,244,630
Median Price – $1,971,000
Average Price – $2,469,630
Highest Price – $15,000,000
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HOUSING MARKET SUMMARY

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Minimal risk – to any outside economic factors which was evidenced by volume contractions over the GFC (manic panic) yet negligible forced sales. Expats have been busy selling currencies where despite the rise in the Australian dollar they still remain well positioned.House sales peaked in 2007 with 456 transactions and dropped in 2008 to 360 sales (96 homes). The value sold, tells an interesting story where in 2007 transactions totalled $1,230,497,720 and fell to $834,337,612 in 2008 (a direct result of a significant slowing of the multi – million dollar properties which we will address next week). The first six months of 2009 were very slow (total sales) but sales quickly escalated when RWM posted $63,000,000 in June (the Mosman recovery?)It will be interesting to see if 2009 house sales (currently $483,925,627) can match the 2008 sales of $834,377,612 and we will update weekly throughout the remainder of 2009. Such are the benefits of subscribing to Mosman’s only online real estate E-Zine.
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MOSMAN APARTMENT & TOWNHOUSE SALES 1 JANUARY 2009 – 19 OCTOBER 2009

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Total Sales – 383*
Total Value Sold – $262,101,227
Median Price – $510,000
Average Price – $722,041
Highest Price – $5,200,000
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*Incomplete data
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MOSMAN APARTMENT & TOWNHOUSE SALES 1 JANUARY 2008 – 31 DECEMBER 2008

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Total Sales – 477
Total Value Sold – $340,078,676
Median Price – $525,000
Average Price – $750,725
Highest Price – $7,500,000
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MOSMAN APARTMENT & TOWNHOUSE SALES 1 JANUARY 2007 – 31 DECEMBER 2007

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Total Sales – 500
Total Value Sold – $389,450,862
Median Price – $530,000
Average Price – $807,989
Highest Price – $4,750,000
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MOSMAN APARTMENT & TOWNHOUSE SALES 1 JANUARY 2006 – 31 DECEMBER 2006

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Total sales – 482
Total Value Sold – $320,918,542
Median Price – $500,000
Average Price – $703,768
Highest Price – $4,000,000
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APARTMENT MARKET SUMMARY

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The figures clearly identify no upward swing as a direct result of the First Home Buyers Grant – so minimal risk to values here also, once the cash rate starts moving upwards. Supply is the key with 482 sales in 2006, 500 sales in 2007, 477 sales in 2008 and 383 (and growing) in 2009. Mosman is a controlled market where it is interesting to observe the annual house and apartment patterns.
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2009 House and Apartment Total Sales

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Houses – 243
Apartments – 383
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2008 House and Apartment Sales

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Houses – 360
Apartments – 482
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2007 House and Apartment Sales

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Houses – 456
Apartments – 500
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2006 House and Apartment Sales

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Houses – 445
Apartments – 482
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Last week, I wrote about the movement of the Global Financial Crisis to a Government Financial Crisis so I thought you would enjoy this article by Peter Spearritt, Trouble in the City, which went online this week. “Australia’s big cities are in trouble. It’s true that they’ve survived the threatened recession courtesy of a vast amount of infrastructure spending, especially on roads, bridges, tunnels and continuing house and apartment construction. Booming real estate markets have hardly eased up, much to the regret of sensible economists.”

“Despite, or perhaps because of, all this growth, big – city dwellers are unhappy. Peak – hour traffic gets worse and worse; the cost of water and electricity keeps going up; and local councils provide fewer and fewer services – yet the rates still rise – and have outsourced almost all new building and renovation approvals, so ratepayers have to cough up for those as well. Some state governments seem so incompetent – New South Wales heads the list – that Armageddon appears nigh.” Yes – that would be our very own Fort Crumble – although I promised myself this week to give our politicians a rest as it appears they have gone to water.

A reason why RWM performs so strongly online was revealed recently when HubSpot (a leading American technology business) revealed that “from 1,531 HubSpot customers (mostly small – and medium – sized businesses) 795 of the businesses blogged and 736 didn’t.

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The data was crystal clear: Companies that blog have far better marketing results (RWM, is the only Mosman real estate agency that actually blogs).
55 per cent more visitors – providing more potential leads and sales
97 per cent more inbound links – increasing search engine rankings
434 per cent more indexed pages – creating a better chance of being found on search engines

Time and time again it has been said that – success leaves clues!

Congratulations to Peter FitzSimons and the over – 45’s Mosman rugby side who won their tournament. Not only were they undefeated, but kept all opposition sides scoreless in the World Masters Games.

The open water swim was a different story. It was called off because the water was too cold when it was measured at 13C (International swimming body’s open swim regulation level is 18C). Fort Crumble pocketed the $220 entrance fees (no refunds) when it was called off at Chowder Bay, Clifton Gardens (Mosman) last Saturday.

It has been brought to my attention that a very well known, respected and highly competitive Balmoral property developer was seen removing a thermometer from his personal esky and observed (reportedly by Brendan Warner from Raine & Horne Mosman) substituting it with the official thermometer. I am not one to start rumours – I write about them.

Another masterstroke to further improve our blog rankings as I’m sure the “Eskimo Pete” will have plenty to say on that! Happy tenth birthday www.domain.com.au

RIP – Don Lane

 

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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23.10.09Robert Simeon5 Comments »

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The Australian economy is booming with the good news this week from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) that our gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6 per cent (seasonally adjusted). There were no downward GDP revisions for the March quarter which remained at 0.4 per cent and I fail to understand why the global financial crisis (GFC) is still being compared to the worst global economic downturn since the Great Depression. The recession of the early nineties plays it off a break, but the early nineties could hardly be described as global either. Unemployment this time didn’t climb to eleven plus per cent (5.8 per cent as at July) and interest rates today remain at 49 year lows.

‘The Punch’ (another great online read) – Clive Mathieson wrote, What Recession? “What a lovely recession we’re having. Or not having”. I do agree however, with the school of thought that we will see some economic tremors along the way and this is inevitable given the sudden impact of the GFC.

Just like the Y2K computer scare – remember that? A global electronic meltdown was predicted when we moved from 31 December 1999 to 1 January 2000, over concerns that (to save computer disk and memory space), computer softwares were using two digits to represent a year (98 instead of 1998). For example the difference between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 1999 could be calculated as -100 years as against one day. On the stroke of midnight on 31 December 1999 it was predicted that this computer bug would see businesses and industry decimated and we would see planes falling from the sky. On the stroke of midnight, planes flew, fireworks went off over Sydney Harbour and computers worked fine.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Alan Kohler wrote another wonderful article “Bulls at the Gate” on his Business Spectator website. “But Australia’s June quarter GDP is important for two reasons: it confirms that Australia has not had a recession at all, and indeed the economy has now expanded for 18 consecutive years; and secondly it will help ensure that business and consumer confidence remains strong.”

As quick as a flash Wayne Swan announced that our economic growth (Australia has been the best performing advanced economy over the past year) was a result of the stimulus. Earlier in the week he said that opposition treasury spokesman, Joe Hockey, must be “deaf, dumb and blind – if he thinks the Government’s economic stimulus is not working.”

I did like this comment “There are tradies all over the country who are working on stimulus projects. It’s adding to confidence in a way that we don’t see anywhere else in the world.” True Wayne – but other countries are actually in recession – we’re not! Then we had some economic speak from the King of Spin, Ruddy Fantastic, who said “The figures (GDP) that have been released today indicate that we’ve got a long way to go when it comes to economic recovery.” Translated, that means we have a long way to go to get his budget into surplus again.

Leo Shanahan penned this beauty in The Punch “Rudd’s secret spending freeze: no soup for you”

Whilst on long roads, spare a thought for the Y2K equivalent of Australian economics Steve Keen who, in my opinion, irresponsibly predicted on nearly every available media outlet, that Australian house prices would fall by 40 per cent and unemployment would shoot through the roof to “depressionary” levels. This prompted Rory Robertson (interest rate strategist) to jump from the factory floor at Macquarie Bank to bet Steve Keen that if his predictions proved correct he would walk from Canberra to Mount Kosciusko. To read about the bet, Business Spectator filed this story by economist Christopher Joye – “Let the Kosciusko march begin” For the record, Rory Robertson was spot – on with his GFC commentaries.

This takes me to the cash rate which remained on hold when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), met this week and decided to leave it at 3.00 per cent. The cash rate has remained at 3.00 per cent for five consecutive months and next month, I predict it will move to 3.25 per cent – the cost of bank funding is going up not down.

Rory Robertson has also predicted a 25bp increase on October 6 based on the latest data identifying a strong rise in house prices. He wrote “With the RBA reportedly keen to start tightening its loosest – ever policy stance at the earliest – available opportunity, the combination of (a) rising GDP (b) a brighter investment picture and, now (c) stronger growth in house prices, might well prove irresistible. The “economic emergency” clearly is over, “nipped in the bud” by early timely and forceful monetary – and fiscal – policy action.”

I believe he may have been referring to the July RP Data – Rismark Hedonic Index results that revealed Australian home values are now 1.8 per cent above their previous peak in February 2008. The intrigue is building for our Mosman markets given we have record high rents and record low levels of stock – better known as a heated market. Stay tuned.

Quite amazing that should the RBA increase the cash rate next month, it would be moving in a totally different direction to Fort Fumble – Ruddy Fantastic’s empire! That’s it! Ruddy Fantastic is out and now he will be called The Emperor – given his ‘sweet and sour’ patterns of behaviour.

Spare a thought for ‘big’ Johnny Della Bonka at Fort Crumble, where we saw the battered draw bridge rise (figuratively speaking). This prompted a vote of no confidence by the opposition in parliament this week – which failed. Our elected NSW government failed to produce yet another leadership challenge by the Bonka. Watch Frank “cranky” Sartor exercise his recently acquired power- play: the funnier side of politics where the patients challenge the asylum. The Emperor is far from impressed.

This week, Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) released another great online application for our clients – ‘Mohbe’ – mobile phone real estate. Mohbe allows real estate agencies to have their own agency branded mobile phone website for their property listings. The mobile phone websites are viewable through any mobile phone which has an Internet browser and access to the Internet. RWM is Mohbe’s first client in NSW to offer this application. Take a test drive www.mohbe.com/124232

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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4.09.09Robert SimeonNo Comments »

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I’ve been obsessed now with the www – (weird whacky ways) consumer online movement for fourteen years. Prior to that, we had black and white television, fresh daily milk deliveries in glass bottles, one telephone per household, wash tub wringers, beta videos and 45 rpm records. We also paid for a newspaper (unless you stole it) and let’s not forget that when you dialled 013 (directories) you were charged for the experience. Today, these, enquiries are made online – free of charge.

CEO’s and business owners are currently struggling to understand the latest online strategies (and survive) and why, their respective businesses are looking pear-shaped. It is happening in television advertising, print media and radio commercials – online advertising has arrived and is taking a significant market share. In fact, it’s booming.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Just look at the profit reporting announcements this week where Fairfax Media posted a net full – year loss of $380 million announcing “unprecedented” declines in advertising revenues. The Seven Network posted a 91.2 per cent decline in full year profit where large losses were proportioned to their ownership of West Australian Newspapers (again citing declines in the overall advertising market). News Corp really brought home the bacon by posting a $US3.4 billion ($4.03 billion) loss citing a downturn in advertising markets and impairment charges. Newspaper advertising strategies require a complete overhaul and it is obvious that the present methodology is becoming irrelevant and too expensive, compared to the alternatives.

Just thirteen houses in Mosman were advertised in last Saturday’s edition of Domain. This prompted me to count just how many houses were advertised on Domain in total. Just 86 – the lowest number in memory. Not at all helpful, was the fact that we sold $17,385,000 worth of houses since last week’s edition of Virtual Realty News. No longer available – 23 Upper Avenue Road, 10 Middle Head Road, 15A Clanalpine Avenue, Sirius Cove, 5 Wonga Road (four sales by electronic advertising campaigns). A clue! $929,190,221 in subscriber sales in the Mosman – Cremorne and Neutral Bay market. As well as the best our online position (database) we have the best negotiators!

It should be noted that our property markets are no longer predictable with the upcoming Spring/Summer market appearing (at this point) to being very tightly held. Open house inspections over before lunch (who would have predicted that?) – changing times.

All arrows keep pointing to Google. It commands ninety per cent of online search enquiries in Australia and it is a no-brainer for any business not to be dominant on the major information highway. Competing search engine Bing (less than ten per cent of searches) has just announced its user-submitted homepage competition, although I remain unconvinced that this photo will significantly increase traffic – it is not the picture but the the content that attracts eyeballs!

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News Limited’s arrows apparently now point to paid online readership when the Los Angeles Times reported “Chief Digital officer Jonathan Miller has positioned News Corp, as a logical leader in the effort to start collecting fees from online readers.” As quick as a flash (and unprecedented – I believe) Fairfax boss Brian McCarthy announced that he was “happy to talk” to rival News Corp about its plan to charge readers who access online news content. Charge for online? I wonder if newspapers will then be free – what an about face. The Internet has simply matured and users have embraced this change in culture. It is now widely acknowledged that the online available resources in modern times are rolling out much smarter user experiences and applications.

Late in 2006 – Google (the monster) acquired YouTube for $US1.76 billion which just so happens to be the Internet’s top video channel. Now YouTube will start paying videographers for their content given they are now accepting page advertisers.

Twitter co-founder Biz Stone also announced that he too would introduce some type of paid content for commercial customers. Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) is the only Mosman agency (that I am aware of) using Twitter as Biz identified for his charging model “But we we’ve identified a selection of things that businesses say are helping to make them more profit.” Nothing wrong with a pay to stay model as long as you understand it – I still believe Google will somehow mash YouTube into its real estate model.

So let’s move to the following quote that I read online this week “Web Squared: Web 2.0 Five Years On” (a great read – should you be moving. Please download and read) “Hence our theme for this year: Web Squared. 1990 -2004 was the match being struck; 2005-2009 was the fuse; and 2010 will be the explosion.” In summation the report tells us “If we are going to solve the world’s most pressing problems, we must put the power of the Web to work, its technologies, its business models, and perhaps most importantly, its philosophies of openness, collective intelligence, and transparency. And to do that, we must take the Web to another level. We can’t afford incremental evolution anymore.”

“It’s time for the Web to engage the real world. Web meets World – that’s Web-Squared.”

Every time you open a link, Google rewards that business with a vote that propels it in their rankings for that respective keyword search – the more votes, the higher your business ranking which explains why consumer communication (newsletters) keeps getting voted into powerful online positions on the Google Monster.

Since the unexpected Global Financial Crisis arrived here in Australia our business model has exceeded our expectations (all things considered) based on the results we have delivered in our marketplace. In my opinion, RWM could not be better prepared for the predicted “explosion” next year. Web Squared said “But 2009 marks a pivot point in the history of the Web. It’s time to leverage the true power of the platform we’ve built. The Web is no longer an industry unto itself – the Web is now the world.”

Yes – times change – although not as fast as NSW Labor changes Premiers. Embarrassing, and highlights the gross incompetence at Fort Crumble. Woolworths wants a bigger tool box to nail consumers and speculation that our property market is set for another boom. June quarter GDP figures are released next week – negative or positive? I predict positive although a negative result would put an interesting spin on the micro/macro analogies of economic recovery.

Once www stood for weird whacky ways – now I suggest that www should stand for ‘what (a) wonderful world’. I should register that and remember where you read it first. See you next week and our online business shall forever remain free – another clue.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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28.08.09Robert Simeon11 Comments »

Google in Australia is the online monster, better known as Australia’s online library with approximately ten million visitors logging on each month. Last Saturday, in The Sydney Morning Herald, Julian Lee wrote a fascinating article about the “Google Monster” which I recommend you read (if you haven’t already). Nine out of every ten searches on the Internet are made through the Google Monster – which has catapulted this business to Australia’s number one media company. As Julian Lee wrote “Google’s revenue is estimated to be $700 million and fast heading towards $1 billion as more advertisers divert their budgets into a medium that delivers them measurability and sales leads.”

Last month the Google Monster entered the Australian property market when it released its real estate directory Google Maps. What this illustrated to me is just how little Mosman real estate agents know and understand about online given that Google measures all websites based on algorithms – whereby the greater the individual pages from a website, the higher the Google ranking on search enquiries. We try to add around 50 to 100 pages on Google each and every week and real estate agencies with an online plan, are doing very well in the current conditions.

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Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

This week, we ventured into left field (no pun intended) as one expat subscriber was explaining to his son, the importance of Australia winning The Ashes at The Oval. As quick as a flash we sent Tim to capture a photograph of The Sydney Cricket Ground – where we all share so many childhood memories. So if you want a particular photo from Tim, send your request via our blog and if he does not have it, we will pay him to take it and this will appear in future editions –must be Eastern seaboard* (*everything has conditions).

Back to that Google Monster where I remain amazed that Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) is the only Mosman agency that directs Google Maps enquiries back to its own website. This explains why our agency is positioned at number one for all search enquiries on Google (Mosman real estate) searches. We have a few thousand pages already on Google which is why we appear at the top of all searches relevant to our market demographic.

Someone is telling “porky pies”. The Weekend Australian ran a story last Saturday saying that Ruddy Fantastic is reportedly planning an absurd tax on family homes valued at over $2,000,000. Political ventriloquist, Wayne Swan, was quick to deny this. Whatever the case, a concerning leak, given that Federal government has to fast track its pay back of the stimulus packages – interest payments alone are estimated at $10 billion a year. In this comprehensive Australian tax review (currently under way by Treasury) it appears that the two worst taxes affecting our property markets – Stamp Duty and Land Tax (both State taxes) would be unlikely to change given that State governments are broke. The only alternate increase would be GST and such a decision would not be popular. With the benefit of hindsight, the stimulus packages were excessive and even though our economy has recovered, Federal and State governments are steeped in their own recessions.

Obviously, Kevin Rudd did not read the Sinclair Davidson (Professor at the School of Economics, Finance and Marketing and a senior fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs.) “Rudd’s stimulus has nothing to do with the economy” which appeared on www.crikey.com.au

Sinclair Davidson wrote “Pessimistic bias is the tendency to over-estimate the economic severity of economic problems. The idea that the Global Financial Crisis is similar to the Great Depression is simply nonsense (I said this a month ago). Australian unemployment in the 1930’s peaked at over 25%. Unemployment is now seen at levels not seen since the early 2000s. The “collapse” in forecast revenue that so spooked the government, returned us to levels not seen since 2006.” Sinclair Davidson then wrote “The government argued that the stimulus package was intended to save jobs. That may well be an admirable goal. But why then stimulate the construction industry? Were the unemployed bankers and brokers and lawyers expected to get jobs building school halls?” Interesting points which no doubt will be debated on our blog (each comment generates another RWM page on Google.)

Before Ruddy Fantastic starts increasing taxes he should read this report compiled by the Australian Housing and Research Institute (AHURI) – Does Higher Housing Wealth Increase Consumer Spending? The key point from its findings was that – A $100,000 increase in housing wealth is associated with an increase in consumption expenditure of approximately $1,000 to $1,500 per annum in Australia. The Federal government can ill afford to infect the property markets with badly thought out tax. Instead, it should look at the tax debacle created by Fort Crumble (NSW government) when it introduced (then embarrassingly dismissed) Vendor Exit Tax!

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But then again I keep revisiting Peter Costello’s musings which appeared in The Sydney Morning Herald on April 29,2009 ” Buy now and pay much more later” . A compelling argument where the stimulus payback may well be worse for Australia than our very quick time in recession.

So let me turn your attention back to the Google Monster – which was not even a concept back in the recession of the early nineties. The Internet has played an enormous part as an accelerated driving force to economic recovery.A majority of decision makers simply don’t understand it and we now find ourselves indebted to their lack of understanding and knowledge for that matter.

In their defence – businesses and governments are now just starting to understand the powers of this monster, and it is not just Google that is reaping the benefits.

Cheers ^_-^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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21.08.09Robert Simeon10 Comments »

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The Australian real estate market is an amazing landscape of media commentaries that although initially, in the limelight, have now been be deemed unreliable. Of course the manipulation of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has led to a media storm where hired guns are in retreat – and licking (terminal) media wounds. So I could not resist the temptation to re-visit the human headlines relating to our real estate industry since the onset of the GFC.

As Alan Kay once said “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”

Before the swine flu, real estate markets were subjected to unrelenting forecasts that simply never came to fruition – enter Professor Steve Keen (no doubt humming the words of “Climb every Mountain”) the King of property forecast bloopers. On November 28, 2008 Keen predicted zero interest rates within two years and a forty (40) per cent drop in house prices within five years (double the drop in the United States). Macquarie Bank interest rate strategist, Rory Robertson, declared that “Dr Keen’s gloomy predictions of an Australian housing market plunge had a one per cent chance of being right.” This then prompted Robertson to challenge Keen that the loser would wear a T-shirt saying “I was hopelessly wrong on home prices! Ask me how.” And make a 200km trek from Canberra to Mt Kosciusko. For the record Rory Robertson thus far, has been spot – on with his market predictions.

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Tim Mooney Photography – Manly beach back to Sydney CBD

timmooneyphotography.com
www.sydneywaterfronts.com

When the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met this week, it was prediction time. What would it do with the official cash rate? It didn’t go to zero but remained (for the third month in a row) at three (3) per cent. Whilst the RBA has strong concerns with unemployment, inflation is the growing concern (as I predicted in last week’s edition). RBA governor, Glenn Stevens, said, “The Board’s current view is that the outlook for inflation allows some scope for further easing of monetary policy, if needed.”

The TD – Securities/Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose 0.4 per cent in June, following an 0.3 per cent fall in May and no change in April. Annual inflation (measured by the gauge) identified that the rate in May was 1.5 per cent. The RBA’s target range is to contain inflation between 2 to 3 per cent. The inflation accelerants to watch will be petrol, food and household rents which are repeat offenders in the Australian economy.

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Figures released this week by The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that, for the eighth month in a row, real estate buyers took out 2.2 per cent more home loans in May (up again from the 0.9 per cent April figures). It should also be noted, that first – home buyers increased from 28.6 percent in April, to 29.5 per cent in May. The Federal Government’s first – home owner’s grant is a concern (another prediction, another story and another day).

The one thing missing from our markets (until June) has been confidence so it came as little surprise to see consumer confidence surging in July to its highest level in eighteen months. The Westpac – Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment rose in the month to 109.4 points, seasonally adjusted. The index in July was up 38.5 per cent from a year ago, prompting Westpac Banking chief economist to announce “This is unquestionably a stunning result.” On the back of our $61, 238,200 sales last month, it would be reasonable to suggest that we are not witnessing predictions, rather market affirmations – with no conspiracy theories.

Of greater concern is the continuing decline in construction where house building contracted for seventeen (17) consecutive months in June. Detached home sales decreased by 9.9 per cent in NSW which is based on delayed projects and difficult credit conditions. Too hard for our elected politicians to fathom – even though they launched ‘Nation Building’. Simply put, you can’t put a plaque on a house although you can on a school or a hospital. It is abundantly clear that Ruddy Fantastic has stuffed this up and many are calling Nation Building ‘Plaque Building’ – ah egos at work!

One prediction I did make some time ago was that Google (the online bible) would enter the Australian property market and take on www.domain.com.au and www.realestate.com.au with a free service. Google launched Google Maps at 3.00 pm on Monday this week and the exclusive announcement can be read at www.business2.com.au I have uploaded the video Google release for your perusal or you can see for yourself by clicking on http://maps.google.com.au/

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) is ranked at number one on Google for Mosman real estate searches. I just love it when a plan comes together!

Fort Crumble (NSW government) has been active in the real estate market busily selling our police stations to off-set mismanagement and dwindling coffers. Nine police stations (including Mosman) and another 200 buildings and parcels of land, including the Sydney Fish Market, are now being listed and sold by Fort Crumble’s real estate agent (not RWM). Obviously our inept premier expects our police officers to work from home to keep overheads down.

The unemployment rate was announced this week with a moderate rise, to see 0.1 ppt to 5.8 per cent (prediction 5.9 per cent) NSW (6.5%), Victoria (6.0%), Qld (5.4%), WA (5.1%), SA (5.4%)and Tasmania (4.7%).

A prediction on NSW labor being re-elected? No hindsight required however, there is always the Hope Factor. Many subscribers would have seen television advertorials boasting contributions to a building and jobs creation programme for the state of NSW (another huge tax payer cost). The alternative is to give away our state assets simply because those involved were not intelligent enough to manage our economy in the first place.

It’s no wonder NSW leads Australia in bankruptcy when our very own elected government is staring down the barrel of a Part X agreement.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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10.07.09Robert Simeon4 Comments »

With the healing process well underway, what has become overwhelmingly apparent, is the confidence generated by the power that lies within. Initially, the powerful information highway ran amok with comparative analysis that compared the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to the Great Depression and christened it ‘Great Depression Two’. What next? With the benefit of hindsight, fighting adversity can be very revealing, especially for those who backed their business models in trying times. If you are not prepared, you won’t be spared!

Let’s look at the rings of confidence – well the ones I recently observed that I consider noteworthy.

www.timmooneyphotography.com

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) announced this week that our local economy should shrink 0.3 per cent in 2009 which, when compared to other OECD economies, is the lowest decline predicted. It predicts that in 2010, the Australian economy will roar back 2.4 per cent in GDP growth. The OECD identified China as the driving force and upgraded growth estimates from 6.3 per cent to 7.7 per cent in 2009 and 9.3 per cent in 2010. This is good news for Australia given that China is a major trading partner. Just as interesting, will be our June quarter GDP results. Whilst our unemployment rate is predicted to reach 7.9 per cent (lower than Budget forecasts of 8.25 to 8.5 per cent) our labour markets remain resilient compared to other global economies.

Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting in June, confirmed that Australia is negotiating the current global downturn well (also noting a very strong recovery in China). The RBA also noted that bank funding costs are rising. This coincided with a statement from the Commonwealth Bank’s head of retail banking, that the bank faces extra costs equivalent to 0.6 per cent over the next eighteen months. This announcement has seen homeowners rushing to lock in mortgage rates, believing that in Australia, interest rates have now bottomed. The lowest variable rate that can be obtained from the major banks is 5.74 per cent and three – year fixed rates this week jumped to 6.69 per cent.

Also, this week, in the opinion of The Real Estate Institute of Australia, residential property markets have bottomed and there is anecdotal evidence that property markets are now consolidating. This is in line with what we have been suggesting in recent editions (you heard it here first). Auction clearance rates are a great barometer and this week’s results certainly confirm this market positioning. Markets recording sales evidence above 80 per cent are considered booming markets.

What didn’t happen in the Mosman housing market in 2009 was a capitulation of values. The presumption that every second home was on the market never came to fruition and in 2009 it was not 50 per cent, rather 2.75 per cent. Here is a three year snapshot of Mosman house sales from 1 January to 23 June 2007, 2008 and 2009.

1 January 2007 to 23 June 2007

• Total recorded sales – 215
• Total sales value – $573,794,220
• Median house price – $2,230,000
• Average Mosman house price – $2,668,810

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1 January 2008 to 23 June 2008

• Total recorded sales – 160
• Total sales value – $452,066,112
• Median house price – $2,530,000
• Average Mosman house price – $2,861,177

(Note: less sales higher median and average price)
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1 January 2009 to 23 June 2009

• Total recorded sales – 95*
• Total sales value – $218,141,001
• Median house price – $1,780,000
• Average Mosman house price – $2,134,602

*Our recent sales have not been included in the 2009 figures as yet

Now this is where it gets interesting – for Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) sales data.

RWM sales in June 2007 – $18,836,000
RWM sales in June 2008 – $19,815,000
RWM sales in June 2009 – $51,038,200

The reason for this amazing result (given the current GFC) is quite simple. Our point of difference is our online positioning. The number of online and email newsletters has jumped over the last five years, increasing by 475 per cent, while print (only newsletters decreased 43 per cent from 7,395 to 4,180) and those in both print and electronic formats remained about the same (4,859, vs. 4,949), according to www.mediafinder.com

The moral of this story lies in our discipline and determination to lead our industry by example. What you put into your industry of choice determines what you get out of it. Yes – writing a weekly online newsletter takes time and effort. So does maintaining one of the largest databases in the industry. However in simple terms this point of contact is what generates results.

We all know that actions speak louder than words and all any business can hope to achieve, is client satisfaction with optimum results. Subscriber sales rose this week to $899,066,219 (the Australian record) http://www.rwm.com.au/sales-list/sold_listing/

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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26.06.09Robert Simeon2 Comments »

Or, should that read the light at the end of your tunnel?

Many are reporting light and others fright. I for one, support the light given that the Mosman property market remains controlled and given the current stock levels, the message is clear – Mosman houses are closed for business!

Should the current pattern continue, there remains a strong possibility that available properties will reach the lowest level in decades. Simply put: the fright no longer remains a concern and for the first time, real estate agents and vendors are not starting to see the light, but are now seeing a brighter turnaround, although it should be noted that longevity is not guaranteed.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

It would then be somewhat reasonable to suggest that given the circumstances in our inherited global financial crisis, businesses today, require vision, strategy and greater acknowledgement of evolving technologies. For the first time, property market interaction has seen online take the lead over the previously preferred print campaigns which are no longer the dominant force. Print will still play a part just that from an economies of scale basis, it will require a re-definition so that it can remain competitive. The leading real estate agencies are now driving and presenting smart online marketing alternatives. For a real estate agency that does not host its very own website, the future is bleak to say the least – simply because all their competitors do.

Markets today are judged from online results, because they are readily available, subscriber driven, easily accessible (except property data) and allow individuals to draw compelling conclusions. The inbox today is what activates consumer interest first, simply because it now is the first point of contact and first impressions count. With the benefit of hindsight it is much easier to track our current recession simply because in our last recession (early nineties) the Internet was still in creation mode. Today, we extrapolate (and then pontificate) data and depending again on your point of view, some believe we have seen the worst and others predict that the worst is still to come.

The ongoing, frustrating debate continues but I believe we have turned the corner and slowly but surely, we are on the long road to economic recovery. When businesses move from economic growth to economic recession – you don’t lose intelligence, you learn and grow from the experience. Unfortunately, the reality of the current economic crisis can be attributed to one word – greed.

As Alan Kohler wrote on www.businessspectator.com.au The best kind of recession – “This is turning out to be quite a nice recession for Australia.

Aussie GDP has fallen just 0.5 per cent, compared to nearly 10 per cent in Japan, 4.6 per cent in Europe and 2.6 per cent in the US. Unemployment has actually decreased according to the latest data and is now at 4.5 per cent – at least two percentage points below other western countries, where unemployment is rising quickly.

With tax cuts and a drop in both mortgage interest rates and petrol prices, the after-tax disposable income of the average wage earner has actually increased by 19 per cent, according to calculations by CommSec’s Craig James.”

Furthermore, one in five international business people (in a survey of 7,500 across twenty four nations) named Australia as the country best surviving the recession. Australia first, China second and India and Singapore equal third.

Toxic debt within our banks has been a very well kept secret but in 2009, banks have certainly been responsible by opting to wait for property markets to stabilise instead of fuelling the problem as they did previously. Nobody can win the argument that property markets don’t recover as we all know that with time, all wounds heal. The Mosman market is not only healing, its appeal is greatly assisted by a cash rate of 3.00 per cent.

Without a doubt the media microscope of opinion has manipulated as well as injected fright into market perceptions. After an unprecedented period of economic growth in Australia, it was hoped that we would bask in economic consolidation before we found ourselves in economic recession. The decline from consolidation to recession surprised everyone. What remains to be seen is how quickly GDP recovers so we then climb back to economic consolidation. Whilst economic growth is still a way off, every Australian business has a strategy to climb back up. The test of time can only be measured by what you are actually testing and discovering.

We have to move with the times.

This time around the businesses with strong online content (in real estate) have done much better than those businesses that wait for it to happen. Watch the movement of property between now and June 30, which I believe will be a defining property market moment. RWM Internet sales jumped to $848,794,019 this week. Our point of difference over other real estate agencies is our online factor which is exactly where we have your eyeballs at this very point in time. You will also notice with this week’s recorded sales a substantial upward spike in sales volumes (see below).

Once upon a time it was a window card placed in the shop front, then an advertisement in a newspaper. Today, consumers judge real estate agencies by their online content. After all, we are in an economic recession where it is all about money. In economic growth they show the money and in economic recession they slow the money.

The real fright at the end of the tunnel is actually shared by the real estate agencies that ignored the move into technologies– just like every other economic recession money is slower. In a recession one has to put the faith in themselves, not others.

Chk – Chk – Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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29.05.09Robert Simeon14 Comments »

The Global Financial Recession is moving in mysterious ways and it would be fair to say that micro markets are now starting to feel the pain. Property market transactions are shrinking – so too is our economy and the best way to handle the situation is with patience – not panic.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Ric Battellino, advised this week that the Australian economy is likely to shrink for a few more quarters and if we read between the lines, this means for the rest of 2009. Battellino said “These measures will go a long way to offsetting the negative influences on the economy coming from abroad, but the reality is that we can’t fully insulate ourselves from what is happening elsewhere in the world.” The RBA is in all probability our best barometer in the current environment given its independence in the Australian market place.

Alan Kohler wrote this week on his popular business site www.businessspectator.com.au “Wake up and smell the downturn” (always thought provoking) “Australia has so far been cocooned by political and economic insouciance and prettied up by well – targeted government mascara: the bank deposit guarantee, and state government debt guarantees, the short selling ban on financials, the first home buyers grant, the 30 per cent extra tax deduction for business investment until June 30 and of course the huge fiscal stimulus, and especially the cash handouts.”

The jury is still out as to whether Ruddy Fantastic’s December “cash splash” worked although this week’s announcement that February retail sales slumped by the greatest margin in nine years identifies a stark and different spin. Unemployment continues to over shadow our economy and employment prospects are worsening. RBA board member Roger Corbett, did add some perspective when he said “our retail figures would be the envy of other countries in the OECD.”

Next week’s meeting of our RBA will be most interesting. Will the cash rate be reduced further? The standard variable mortgage rate has already fallen by 375 basis points in the past six months. In Mosman, property transactions are reducing and so too are prices although we are now starting to see some clarity in the situation.

A home was auctioned last week at 11 Cyprian Street Mosman (mortgagee-in-possession) the first in 2009. We sold the property on 1 July 2005 for $4,725,000 and it has just sold for $4,000,000 a drop of 18 per cent. An excellent example of a recorded transaction speaking much louder than words that were talking a 30 per cent drop. So I went to RP Data to look at recorded transaction volumes for Mosman houses and apartments since 2000. Bear in mind that because of confidentiality restraints, a few 2009 house sales are yet to be recorded.

MOSMAN HOUSES

• 2009 – 24 sales. Averaging 8 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,425,000
• 2008 – 264 sales. Averaging 22 sales per month with a median sale price of $2,200,000
• 2007 – 409 sales. Averaging 34 sales per month with a median sale price of $2,230,000
• 2006 – 396 sales. Averaging 33 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,900,000
• 2005 – 293 sales. Averaging 24 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,850,000
• 2004 – 310 sales. Averaging 26 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,637,500
• 2003 – 376 sales. Averaging 31 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,699,500
• 2002 – 392 sales. Averaging 33 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,690,000
• 2001 – 446 sales. Averaging 37 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,250,000
• 2000 – 349 sales. Averaging 29 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,150,000

Source: RP Data

If you look closely at these figures you will note that since 2000 to 2008 the total number of houses sold in Mosman was 3235. The total number of houses in Mosman is 4,900 so this equates to 66 per cent of the market sold over this period. The average trade percentage per annum is 7.3 per cent.

Beware of agents quoting absurd sales results without revealing their source. One Mosman agency has fellow agents shaking their heads in total disbelief at the rubbish they are sending out. We are in the midst of a property market that requires truthful analysis, not distorted results – otherwise known as false advertising.

MOSMAN APARTMENTS – STRATA TITLE

• 2009 – 44 sales. Averaging 4 sales per month with a median sale price of $520,000
• 2008 – 494 sales. Averaging 41 sales per month with a median sale price of $526,000
• 2007 – 637 sales. Averaging 53 sales per month with a median sale price of $525,000
• 2006 – 456 sales. Averaging 38 sales per month with a median sale price of $501,000
• 2005 – 484 sales. Averaging 40 sales per month with a median sale price of $522,500
• 2004 – 474 sales. Averaging 40 sales per month with a median sale price of $473,500
• 2003 – 570 sales. Averaging 48 sales per month with a median sale price of $475,000
• 2002 – 725 sales. Averaging 60 sales per month with a median sale price of $452,000
• 2001 – 679 sales. Averaging 56 sales per month with a median sale price of $410,000
• 2000 – 415 sales. Averaging 35 sales per month with a median sale price of $390,000

Source: RP Data

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) have ten house sales yet to be recorded at RP Data – the total sales value $47,440,000. Our average house sale this year is $4,744,000.

There is anecdotal evidence that our top-end markets are struggling despite significant price reductions and in the last six months (we calculate) there were just eight house sales in excess of $5,000,000.

We at RWM believe the $5,000,000 + market is not far off an upward run given record low interest rates. Historically, this market since 2001, has been Mosman’s most volatile. Financial losses have been extreme, even though in Australia, the principal place of residence is tax free (unlike nearly every other country).

Why do I refer to 2001? Well in June 2001 RWM posted Mosman’s first ever double digit sale with the sale of a Hopetoun Avenue property for $15.500 million. Scroll back up and have a close look at what happened to median house prices from 2001 – 2008. Median house prices doubled yet the apartment median only recorded a 35 per cent increase. The reason why – Mosman apartments don’t have a strong top-end as against Mosman houses which historically are prolific performers. Properties are valued from the top-end down and the top – end has the greatest capital gains – tax free.

These statistics have me intrigued so next week I will extrapolate all the $5,000,000 + house sales since 2000 and see what that reveals (I am already seeing an interesting pattern).

The blog fired up last week and I was accused of writing ‘dribble’ (drivel). The Word Smith Award was easily won by Patricia.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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3.04.09Robert Simeon30 Comments »