Rob is still on holiday and we are one week away from The Great One’s return. Ah! It’s been so peaceful and there is not too much real estate news to talk about since Richard’s report last week, so this will be short and sweet!

As I write, we are aware that the stock market has fallen around 4% this morning, on the back of the American fall overnight.    News from Europe is grim and this is reflected in consumer confidence. We are now a saving nation not a spending one.   The banks are having the biggest influx of funds into their savings accounts, in 30 years.

With the strong Aussie dollar, figures announced today say that 1.5million  more Aussies went overseas for trips than tourists coming in;  asure sign that the high dollar is affecting all parts of our economy!

Now in  past decades, when the stock market went down, the Real Estate market went up.    This hasn’t been the case for (probably) the last 10 years when the Stock Market became the be all and end all of investment funds.

However, I sense a change. The unit market in the $400k to $1m range has been quite strong for some home buyers and investors.

Stock levels are still low in the housing department, with prices fluctuating on a weekly basis, pending press reports.  But overall, steady at the lower end and more fragile at the top end, although great homes still get great prices.

Trading in the same market is the key and there are definitely some bargain buys around in the market if you keep your ear close to the ground.

I won’t bore you with any more rhetoric or theory on real estate. There is so much information to read on a daily basis already and I don’t want to steal Rob’s thunder for next week.

BUY PRINT

On a different note, Mosman news this week was all about the Bomb Threat in Clifton Gardens.  Great news that Maddy is safe and well, as is the Pulver family after this most horrific incident.

Our thoughts go out to the whole family, who are great people well known to most of us here, the local footy club and local schools.

While on the local scene, we wish the Junior clubs we support, Mosman Swans AFL, Mosman Netball, and Mosman Junior Hockey all the best for their semi-finals which are fast approaching.

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

That’s all folks - see you at the opens….

Steve

Principal

The only consistent trend since the GFC of 2008 has been that neither agents, buyers, nor vendors, have any real confidence that the future of the financial world is set for a recovery in the foreseeable future.  This has culminated into a confused market perpetuated by misinformation and rumour, resulting in the proverbial fence sitting i.e. don’t sell or buy now. Despite this general sentiment my experience is slightly different.  I am dealing with some very discerning vendors and buyers who are making this market work for them by taking advantage of the current conditions to achieve their personal goals for their families.  Where for most others, ‘negative perception is reality,’ these vendors and buyers are dealing with the real facts and are turning them into opportunity.

I am not talking the market up today, I am just trying to shed light and clarity for those who now consider that the property market exists in a deep fog and cannot see a clear path from which to make an educated decision.

BUY PRINT

MISINFORMATION is everywhere so make sure you are informed and not misled. For example:

Media two weeks ago (14th May) The Mosman Daily published that there were 243 houses listed in the last 4 weeks in Mosman over $3m. The fact is that in Mosman, there were actually only 80 houses (in total) on the market, in all price ranges.

Most purchasers constantly search properties via the Internet by price range, to fine-tune their selection.  Recently, a senior banker sent me his property analyst’s residential property report for Mosman, which was sent to thousands of their clients. It claimed that there were over 50 properties for sale at $5M plus and 10 properties at $10M plus. The facts at the time were that there were 16 at $5M plus and 3 properties over $10M. His mistake is a common one. Any specified price range can include properties at any price. For example any agent with say, a $3m property, can include it in a price search for properties at $5m and so on.

Vendors­ in Mosman, are most often told that every property should be auctioned and that their agency clearance rates are 90%. In 2010, Australian Property Monitors recorded around 330 house sales in Mosman, of which 49 sold via Auction. If we all agree that around 75% of all houses are initially placed on the market via auction, then the real auction clearance rate in 2010 was only 20%. So why, do most real estate agents rush to recommend an auction for every property they represent? We agree that some properties are ideal for auction, but most are obviously not, so vendors must seriously consider other selling methods if they are going to get the results they hope for.

THE GRASS IS NOT ALWAYS GREENER

Most vendors believe that now is not the time to sell but most do not realise that although there are less buyers, there is much less choice and ultimately most buyers will buy within three months rather than wait for years. Honestly, my most frequent buyer complaint is that there is not enough choice in their price range and many have been searching for over 6 months. Vendors believe the market has dropped appreciably over the last 12 months. Technically, market reports confirmed recently, that top-end properties dropped by only 3% last year. This negative trend isn’t significant enough for vendors to delay their decision to sell, given that most accept that this property market may show no capital gain for years to come and the financial proceeds of their house sale can be used better elsewhere, or to fund their re-purchase.

Many purchasers still want to believe that the incredible deal is yet to come, when the best deal is right in front of them. They have the right to dream, but they are reading negative Sydney property headlines and incorrectly applying them to our local market. They will tell me that half of Mosman is for sale, prices will drop by another 30%, interest rates will go through the roof, yet when you present them with the facts, they prefer to find comfort in their fantasy. For those who follow the market closely, there have been some poor sale results.  Most typically, the properties were either grossly over quoted initially, or are actually B Grade properties compromised in some way, were sold by poor agents, or a combination of all three.  We have also seen many strong results for the $2m to $15m price range and in the apartment sector. Money is out there, particularly for good property.

Selling trends are not seasonal but are tending to run in six monthly spikes. In our experience since the GFC, March/April is the 1^st peak and August/September have been the strongest sale periods. Buyers are taking longer to purchase as there is less property to choose from and the market is flat. This Spring market will start slightly earlier than usual to allow enough time to complete campaigns prior to September school holidays. There will not be a huge influx of property which will advantage the vendors with well priced property, selling to realistic purchasers. Spring is shaping up to be a strong sales period.

To help you in the coming period here are my top 10 tips for you to consider

• The only measure of a good result for those selling and re-buying in this market is the ‘change over cost’. So drop 10% of the sale price and try to buy even better.
• Since the GFC, sales levels may have halved but so have the buyers. Demand is still close to the level of supply, therefore prices will remain reasonably stable.
• The best agents all have the ‘gift of the gab’ but purchasers will remember 80% of what they read and 20% of what they hear.  Does your agent prepare quality written property documents, personalised to each buyer’s ‘property brief’ to close the sale?  If not and biased by misinformation, vendors are losing the best buyers.
• Currently, vendors can dominate by having a greater voice in this smaller property market.
• Vendors – not every house is best sold via auction, based on a real auction clearance rate of 20% in Mosman last year (Source APM). Quiz your agent’s rationale for the most effective method of sale for your property.
• Buyers – take a long term position in this market and look to get a good deal for an ‘A’ grade property rather than a better deal on a ‘B’ grade property, which will never have the same level of capital appreciation.
• The best agents should perform more as your informed ‘property advisor’ rather than just trying to make a sale at all costs. Working to place the right buyer in the right property, always achieves far more sales and at higher prices.
• Consider your agent’s track record closely since the GFC.  For example, 50% of our last 22 sales have been street records, so how does your preferred agent’s track record measure up in this market?
• Buyers – focus your property brief on measurable property credentials and not just emotion. Here’s a general list. Note, the best properties will have all or most of these credentials. Good views – desirable land size for your needs – ideal location – tranquil – privacy – best aspect – good potential: factor in any re-development costs, or totally finished, nothing to spend – strong capital appreciation
• The best Agency Internet platform will introduce the most qualified buyers to your property and many local agents only rely on domain.com.au or realestate.com.au. This is not good enough, as on the main real estate portals, your property competes with all properties. We measure all buyers 1^st point of inspection for each property and our own site at www.rwm.com.au commonly records nearly the same hits as realestate.com.au, with domain.com.au the strongest portal.

That’s enough from me and thankfully, my brother Robert will be returning to write next week’s edition. From our team, we wish you all good fortune in the property market. We look forward to meeting you and maybe we will sell you your ‘dream home’ this Spring.

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Richard Simeon

Director

Infrastructure in NSW ‘average to poor’ a scathing new report card from Engineers Australia where more than three quarters of the sectors require major or critical changes. This report highlights the point that industry can identify the problems, yet elected governments are incapable of preparing a work – in – progress strategy for Australia. Fix these problems because today our population is well ahead of infrastructure which was brilliantly explained in gotchanomics doesn’t bring home the real bacon.

Labor struggling in key states which led to rolling out the barrel – Labor denies pork – barrel suggestion. Andrew West from the Sydney Morning Herald wrote Back on track – and just the ticket for commuters “It is politically brave for a prime minister to appear publicly with a NSW premier these days. It is crazy brave to make a joint announcement about public transport. The NSW public is so cynical about public transport promises – after 15 years of projects being announced, postponed, shelved and re – announced – that voters no longer believe state Labor can deliver a crucial service.” The $2.100 billion rail link announcement for Parramatta and Epping will no doubt be shelved once Fort Crumble is removed permanently at the next state election – all aboard the PM’s Parramatta express. Who could forget reading How lazy Nathan Rees sold NSW short which explains why Gillard and Keneally fail on Sydney’s transport infrastructure funding. More than half the pledged monies promised in the current election will not be spent until after the next election in 2013 – pork rolled out on the never-never.

BUY PRINT

Surveys reveal that Australia is home to the world’s least – affordable property. Pundits are at odds over whether it might end in a bang or a whimper – a great read Forever blowing bubbles. The Real Estate Institute of Australia recently announced that a contributing factor to the increase in house prices and the decline in housing affordability, is the under-supply of housing. According to the National Housing Supply Council, the gap between the supply and demand for housing will increase in the next eight years and this will put further pressure on house prices.

Nothing new on offer since the houses that Kevin built – “It might be important to voters – but not the parties”, wrote Kevin Saulwick. “There may have been more pressing issues than housing affordability at the 2007 election, but not many. Which makes it all the more remarkable that three years later – and with the same level of community concern about the cost of living – there has been little focus on housing by Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott. When Kevin Rudd sailed into office, it was due to Labor’s success in putting itself on the side of the angels when it came to housing costs. Rudd’s message was simple: he sympathised with families bleeding ever – larger payments on mortgages and rent. And he came to office offering policies aimed at increasing the supply of affordable properties to help reduce the pressures.” The Emperor was de-throned by the Orange Roughie because he had lost his way, then poor polling saw a phoenix – like resurrection to lead Labor to better polling – hence the soap opera.

Housing affordability can come down only with much improved infrastructure policies – Capital city house prices up 18 per cent from last year – ABS even though home loans sink to nine – year low. When infrastructure is non–existent, this leads to construction slumps in July because there is no point building, where there is no demand (especially when NSW has no South West rail link, North West rail link, Parramatta to Epping rail, M4 East and M5 East duplication). If these facilities were in place as promised, NSW construction would be booming and housing affordability and rentals much more affordable. How can Australia “move forward” when infrastructure is moving backwards, compared to our population growth? Policy on the run again as NSW Labor in the dark over Gillard’s Parramatta – Epping rail link promise which has been revealed as the rail pledge a carrot in push for McKew win for the seat of Bennelong – Maxine who?

The last remaining economic data statistic before next Saturday’s election was released this week – shock jobless rise where the three states of major concern for federal Labor – NSW, Queensland and Western Australia all experienced unemployment increases.

Whilst home loans fall as interest rates bite the good news is that the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA statement suggests longer pause given RBA forecasts plenty of blue sky ahead. With the election ‘soap opera’ out of the way next Saturday, we can expect some normality back in our property markets. Electoral promises rarely come to fruition as The Emperor “Kevin 07” found, even though he has been brought back to life – with a faint pulse.

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) has been busy working on our infrastructure and this week, we released our RWM mobile website. Previously with your mobile phone you could view our website with your phone which was a navigation nightmare because it is impossible to view a macro site on a micro application and do justice to our properties. Agentpoint our developers this week launched our mobile micro site for mobile phones users.

Open a browser on your mobile phone and type in www.m.rwm.com.au. Our research and development team are currently testing new technologies, all to improve your RWM real estate experience..
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Online is our real estate industry point of difference, because we are the only agency that gets it – so now you get it. Our clients can now sit outside one of our properties and view it on their mobile phone (outside set inspection times) from our mobile RWM website.

Thanks to Steve and Richard for filling in whilst I was relaxing in our Thailand branch office which is better known (by me) as the Tipsy Prawn.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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The world changed post March 2008, and so has the local real estate market. Today’s vendors and buyers remain totally confused and understandably so. As two years on, sales trends are still so erratic, if you look for security in each short spike continuing as a trend, most will get it wrong.  The last two plus years have seen the most dramatic swings of opinions and sales volumes since the early 1990’s. Long periods of minimal sales have been followed by bursts of sales, reminiscent of the golden years. At least back then vendors and purchasers  alike, could make a calculated decision based on predictable trends and sales evidence, as to the most likely sale price and plan their lives ahead accordingly. Back then, many properties sold at the top of the price range, buyers had more income security and were more inclined to compromise on the perfect property (there is no such thing) and were more inclined to put the family’s happiness first, rather than to negotiate to the final dollar.

For two years the only consistent property trend is inconsistency, so stop trying to pick the market and focus on how the quality and genuine appeal of each property meets the criteria and desires of your family or yourself. Yes, price is always important and the evidence is that property prices have lowered and represent great buying for genuine buyers. However, many buyers are living in a false world and dreaming of a ‘property collapse’ and consistently missing out on well priced properties, which would have been ideal for their own needs.

The reality is that stock levels are down, around 30% to approx 330 house sales in Mosman for the last two years and buyers are fewer too. Prices are down and many buyers have less money. Sellers will understandably take less as most will re-buy for less. Buyers are patient as they are more inclined to wait for “A” grade stock, of which nearly all is selling.  However the biggest fact is more buyers than ever are regretting missed opportunities.  Personally, I’ve been fortunate to have sold a house every 10 days on average for 18 months, representing around $180,000,000 worth of property over every price range.  I feel like a walking research library of consumer sentiment, both buyers and sellers alike, positive and negative. I’m spending on average one day per week with potential vendors and buyers discussing when and how they should move in the property market.  The truth? There are many buyers and sellers who have made the best property transaction of their lives over the past two years.

BUY PRINT

Here are a few of my tips for buying and selling in this post GFC market:

Generally speaking, your preferred and most trusted agent and agency, should almost act as your informal property advisor and not just jump in for the listing or quick sales commission. Use them to analyse your property needs. They should be capable of mapping a purchase or creating the best selling strategies, which maximise your position within the current market.  In any property market there are winners and losers, so make sure your advice is well supported by third party data and evidence and not baseless opinions.

Buying – generally speaking this is the best market to purchase in if you are looking longer term. We have buyers that have been looking for the ‘impossible deal’ for years. Their families could have been settled in their dream house and financially better off years ago.

• Purchase “A” grade properties and not those compromised, as when the market strengthens the better properties will appreciate ahead of market. So, take a longer term perspective and don’t be swayed just by cosmetic beauty, as this is the easiest and the least costly attribute to rectify.
• Most fully-renovated properties represent better buying in this market than land value sales, as you cannot buy the land and rebuild for the same cost of a completed house
• Longer term settlements and special conditions such as ‘put and call’ purchase agreements  are becoming more typical , so don’t hesitate to present your terms and not simply disregard a property if the standard contract terms are not attractive to you.
• The selling agents must be capable to assist you to the most intimate level. If a property is not right then he/she should be able to source your preferred property. For example, our subscribers represent over 5,000 buyers in 53 countries worldwide and our subscriber sales drive our business. As at today we have sold $956,000,000 worth of property to our private clients.
• Don’t outsmart yourself and immediately discount a property falsely assuming that the price will drop. Recognise and accept that there is always sufficient demand for good properties and a fair price is reflective of a good property
• Be a smart and educated buyer so you can move quickly, which most often means using the agent to do your research and rationale for you. Understand what property credentials justify value and don’t simply group all properties as being much alike.

Selling – “Trust me, we’ll sell your home no worries”, doesn’t work these days. Reputations are being made and lost, with buyers finding many agents short on ‘detail’, as the verbal bluff is falling on deaf ears.  Does this mean that you shouldn’t sell? Well hell no! – you just need to ensure that you are driving the sales process and not taking any short cuts.

• The best agents act more as “property advisors” than hard selling agents, they work to appreciate your specific needs, and then deliver. 50% of my sales are to buyers who initially say no.  Once we analyse all the facts together via meetings and written documents, we realise that a particular property is more appealing than first thought, so keep an open mind.
• Some properties are perfect for auction, most are not. Prior to the GFC every buyer hated to compete at an auction, today most buyers relish the thought of going to an auction, so they can low bid it. Strategies that counter handing too much power to the buyers are the key.
• Purchasers will remember 80% of what they read and 20% of what they hear. The verbal pitch is critical but the best agents reinforce their sales pitches to good prequalified buyers as strategic emails.
• A post GFC successful track record is critical, as you know they are succeeding with sales in this market.  Some agents went on holidays last year for six months as they couldn’t sell, some spend all their time trying to co-list other agent’s properties. Most are complaining. This is a real market and the sales are being made, so look for the ‘real’ performers.
• Don’t co-list a property, as only one agent and agency can affectively represent your best interests. With a joint listing, buyers will contact both agents looking for the cheapest deal, so recognise that no agent owns a buyer and that buyers are not even loyal to an agent when buying. If they want a property they will deal with the selling agent.

I hope some or at least one of these points will assist you in this post GFC property market.  Stay tuned for an early Spring market with most properties launching mid-August. Stock levels won’t be huge, a fact that has been so for two years, but we expect many buyers will be looking to buy and secure their new homes and settle in for Christmas this year.

Richard.

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

The major problems attributed to Forts Fumble and Crumble is that economically, they confuse usage with wastage (otherwise known as “reckless and wasteful spending”). After all, Fort Fumble is still borrowing almost $100 million a day which is in direct competition with home borrowers and small business as Joe Hockey tells govt to cool spending.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met this week and decided to keep rates on hold despite solid numbers. Of course the announcement was met with the usual rhetoric Wayne Swan welcomes interest rate decision citing “while we’ve fought off the recession and kept unemployment low, we know that a lot of people are still doing it tough and recent rate rises have stretched family budgets.” More Treasurer speak “we’re focussed on reforming and strengthening our economy with investments to harness mining boom mark 11 where the Liberals failed in mining boom mark 1.” Wayne is almost Shakespearean with his economic recitals and enactments although the RBA keeps saying Government must rein in demand growth: McKibbin.

Thought we would head south this week for a change of Sydney scenery

BUY PRINT

Let’s take a closer look at Fort Fumble’s mark 11 harnessing – mining tax changes had one purpose which was taking pressure off key marginal seats. Since the new deal was announced last Friday, it has been described as a compromise, a back flip and a monumental cave–in MRRT revenue loss to be double government estimate: Goldman.

The tax was reduced from 40 to 22.5 per cent a hard tax to swallow as Alan Kohler wrote on Business Spectator.”More than double the profit threshold above which it cuts in and reduce the number of companies being taxed from 2,500 to 320, and lose only one – eighth of the money. Julia Gillard is a prime minister who Gets Things Done – the Mary Poppins of tax policy.”

No regrets over mining tax – Treasury Secretary Ken Henry whilst Martin Ferguson concedes: ‘We got super – profits tax wrong’ I can’t wait to see what happens with mark 111 as government ‘dishonest’ on revised super profits tax revenue as government sacrificed $35 bn in tax deal with big miners.

Time to move above ground where caution is being thrown to the wind (again) – which I might add is not a bad thing. Of course it would have been much better had Fort Fumble got their stimulus issues right which unfortunately was not the case as I have long argued – roads, infrastructure, housing subdivisions, hospitals – a long term future model. Fort Crumble was at it again also with another painful snub of Sydney transport, M5 set to be delayed and doodling as Metro plan burns $500m. Then on Thursday we had 50,000 Sydney homes without power again broken infrastructure in NSW.

Not one Sydney transport project has been listed as a priority for the federal Government’s (Fort Fumble) latest infrastructure funding targets. “Blasting the NSW Government’s failure to properly plan billion – dollar road and transport projects, Infrastructure Australia has instead selected a $4.9 billion Melbourne metro train project, an Adelaide freight rail line and a Federal Highway road upgrade in the ACT as priorities.” Work this out – the Pacific Highway gets an upgrade and Sydney gets absolutely nothing – Sydney has been placed in the too hard basket along with our politicians. No strings attached with Sydney anymore.

Great news for property owners who sit within a 5 – 10 – 15 kilometre radius of our CBD as evidenced when Jonathan Chancellor published this week in the Sydney Morning Herald – Top 20 Sydney house sales just the one recorded sale outside the radius – clue!

Mosman posted five of the top 20 sales.  Our very own Stephen Patrick had the highest sale and Richard Simeon had another in Warringah Road. This saw  Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) record two of the five, which this week, took our Internet subscriber sales to $956,784,220.

So how is our Spring/Summer property market looking? Year ahead good, not great where Australia’s market economists declare there will be no double– dip recession here. Buyers expected to favour private sales over auctions as growth slows. We predict the Mosman market to shift (initially) in the upcoming market to online advertising – stage one as property markets stabilise. Why? It’s all about our real estate ring of confidence.

As Macquarie Economics Research explained:

• With more volatility in global financial markets, an increasing number of analysts are betting that this will force the RBA to leave rates unchanged over the next year. Certainly, if the credit markets dry up the RBA will not hesitate to cut interest rates. But with the Government’s deal with major mining companies over taxation, removing one of the clouds over investment, the RBA might actually have become more confident in the growth outlook.

Don’t forget rise in inflation to irk RBA where the annual reading of 3.6 per cent rate of inflation rose for the eighth straight month. This is well outside the RBA’s target of between 2 and 3 per cent. Rents will continue to drive inflation up given a six year wait to save deposit for first home in Sydney which is quite ironic given Infrastructure Australia is not investing in Sydney. IMF sees strong growth in Australia, but risks grow although I would add that government economic policy is an even greater risk on our shores.

Sydney needs a plan and it is obvious that  Forts Fumble and Crumble have absolutely no idea on how to address such complex issues. Sydney commuters can expect to see new signs on all transport systems – Turn around You Are Going the Wrong Way – no infrastructure ahead. When Fort Crumble has difficulty filling out Infrastructure Australia forms it’s no wonder NSW is a basket case. More back flips from Fort Fumble where Gillard eats her words over refugees as her options dwindle to six countries for east Timor alternative.

The Emperor may have gone however the art of the back flip remains the preferred exercise for a government that just two weeks ago, had lost its way. So what would one call the MRRT and East Timor? Must be a phase they are going through although we need more than promises to judge Julia. Maybe she has short term memory loss?

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

RICHARD’S FIVE REAL ESTATE TIPS

•Investment tip of the month – without doubt, Holsworthy is now flush with bargains. Nice semi-rural setting although there may be a few local security issues.

•Interest rates on hold for the last time? – It’s probably a fair call. Although this is a negative thought for most, it is a positive sign for boosting the real estate market. We are at the bottom and the only way is up, so there is no reason for buyers to delay purchasing. Our banks are over it and they want to make money, so watch-out!

•Potential vendors, if you plan to sell in the next 12 months, I think the time is now! Buyers are screaming for more choice and they will to commit to a purchase. With less property on the market, buyers are forced to compete; simple forces of supply and demand apply, so sale prices will be higher this quarter. Interest rates are still very low and ‘the media’ hasn’t started its next wave of negative real estate commentary, which is sure to happen when the inevitable inflationary spike eventuates.

•Don’t let your agent under-quote your property in this market, claiming this is the best way to drive the price up, or blaming the tough market. The reality is, that although prices are firming, the market is still soft and more than ever, every buyer wants real value for money. No buyer today wants to believe that they paid the asking price in this market. Every agent will have excellent comparable sales to determine and justify a strong value for the property they represent, which every good buyer needs to appreciate.

•To determine the best agent to sell your property, the most important question is: “Tell me the strategies you will use to achieve the highest possible price and what do you do differently from other agents?” Today, more than ever, the difference between a good and poor result will cost you up to 20%. So, by choosing the wrong agent and agency, you could be risking hundreds of thousands of dollars. Any agent can quote a potential high sale price, but if they cannot convince you how and why they will achieve that price, then it won’t happen in the market.

HOT REAL ESTATE TIPS FROM STEPHEN PATRICK

•Timing – It is vitally important to get the selling period right when putting your property on the market. In suburbs like Mosman, many families have weekend properties or holiday homes that they head off to for the school holidays. Hence, on the Lower North Shore, our open inspection numbers can drop by over 50% during school holidays. So if we have an extensive marketing programme booked, we make sure that it falls between school holiday periods.

•Presentation – This can make a huge difference. For example, if the furniture in the house has been bashed to bits by your kids over the last 20 years, it may make the house look old and tired. It is often hugely successful to rent new furniture for a 4-week marketing period to maximise your price. Obviously the flooring and paint on the walls also have to be in good order to set off the furniture. This presentation can make a huge difference to the end price.

•Concept Plans – For properties that are under-developed, where there is extensive potential to extend and upgrade, we often have an architect draw up concept plans to give buyers ideas of what can be done to fully maximise the property’s potential. Fabulous computer images cam be produced to help buyers visualise the property on completion.

•Facts & Features – Many quality homes have numerous features of interest to buyers – too many to list on a standard sales brochure. With so many available choices of tiles, stones, c-bus systems etc. it is important to transfer all the information to the buyer when they are considering the property. All the extra quality features in the property substantiate the high price expectations. A house that cost $1m to build can seem an exact replica of a $2m home of higher quality with extra technology, but much of the extra cost is hidden unless we specifically let buyers know.

•Landscaping and Gardening – It is also important to have your gardens in order. The front entrance is particularly important to create that very important ‘first impression’.

•A Makeover – Can work wonders and this could include the cleaning of tiled/sandstone paths, a house wash and new colourful plants added to the garden. There are several companies who will do this at a very competitive price.

Kindest regards and good luck!

Stephen Patrick (Principal) & Richard Simeon (Director)

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

In a year or two will you look back over the last 12 months and realise you’ve lost an opportunity? Only time will tell. Let’s reflect briefly on the facts and move forward, based on evidence and current trends. On reflection, over the last 12 months, buyers were initially and justifiably seeking their revenge against property prices that had become inflated. By mid 2008, they were trying to pick the bottom of the market and by the end of 2008, the vast majority of buyers had decided not to purchase, unsure of whether we were entering into a deep recession. Those that were not adversely affected by the GFC (Global Financial Crisis) sat back in the hope of further price drops and more choice as ‘distressed’ properties came onto the market.

Tim Mooney Photography

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The first quarter of 2009 was disappointing for longer term purchasers as they saw prices starting to stabilise, while low stock levels remained. By the second quarter, sentiment was starting to pick up and buyers revisited the stock that had not sold. This resulted in a doubling of weekly inspection numbers compared to previous months. In May–June we sold 80% of our entire stock – $61,000,000 worth of property and 90% of the prices achieved were in-line with, or above, vendor expectations. There were no ‘fire-sales’. These results speak for themselves and the property sales ranged from $2m re-builds to $8m residences.

As I talked with and gave advice to a continual line of vendors and purchasers, a few trends emerged. Discerning vendors, although not pressured to sell, had taken this as an opportunity to sell first, then re-buy in a softer market thus realising a greater financial upside than if they traded up in a ‘bull-market’. Those purchasers who were cashed-up and wanting to move forward with their lives have been able to secure an ideal property for a realistic price and with less competition than normal. Having said that, the relatively low stock levels meant that purchasers have had less choice and this has assisted in keeping prices stable.

Moving forward, I believe this is a good market for both vendors and purchasers. Australia seems to have weathered the financial turbulence relatively well and we are seeing slightly more desperate purchasers, who have been in the market for up to 12 months, keen to buy in the coming months. Property prices have stabilised and with purchasers wanting to proceed more quickly, the typical ‘days on market’ period for new listings should reduce dramatically.

As school holidays conclude, expect to see some new stock entering the market, but perhaps not at the same volume as in previous years. Vendors who do wish to sell should ideally be planning to sell early in Spring to give them as much time as possible to secure their new property this year, in the same property cycle. Although we are seeing a return of more positive sentiment, cash is still king, so take advantage and buy in the coming months (although we still predict stock levels will remain well under demand).

Many of our clients use us as “real estate advisors,” whether they are looking to sell or buy. As with any good investment advisor, our focus is to help you plan for your long term success, in line with your expectations and ideals. We assist, educate and empower every purchaser to proceed, and, at the same time, focus on exceeding the expectations of our vendors. This results in a win for both parties.

So whether you plan to sell, buy, or both, we wish you well in the coming months and hope to see many of you out there in the market. If you need a sounding board or constructive property advice, we would be delighted to contribute to your knowledge base, so don’t hesitate to pick up the phone.

Kind regards,

Richard Simeon
Director

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

Here is a link to a property portal survey that only takes about thirty seconds to complete www.aussierealestateportals.questionpro.com Your participation would be very much appreciated.

On our blog last week, Patricia requested “Robert … An acknowledgement and analysis of the factors surrounding the high inventory of upper – end homes ($3,000,000+) that have been on the market for 6+ months (some almost a year) would be illuminating.” I love blogs as they get to the coal face of our property markets. Watch for more agencies offering this facility (highly unlikely).

In our first edition this year we highlighted the fact that (according to Australian Property Monitors) Mosman in 2008 transacted just 219 sales which is the lowest volume in decades. The hangover of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In 2007, Mosman, recorded 384 house transactions and in 2006 the volume was 440. Back to 2008 where the last six months was an absolute disaster evidenced by the following data.

January 2008 – 8 house sales

February 2008 – 24 house sales

March 2008 – 24 house sales

April 2008 – 25 house sales

May 2008 – 30 house sales

June 2008 – 20 house sales

The GFC decline

July 2008 – 17 house sales

August 2008 – 22 house sales

September 2008 – 13 house sales

October 2008 – 14 house sales

November 2008 – 12 house sales

December 2008 – 9 house sales

Many owners who might otherwise be selling, have to decided to hold their market position. After the Stock Market crash of 1987 where the economy came to a complete halt many forget that our property markets were in full boom just six months later in June 1988.

The buyers are calling for blood and vendors are blowing raspberries!

When I look at www.domain.com.au (the number one Mosman property portal) there are 147 houses listed – then when I remove co-agents and apartments that sneak in, it actually comes to 127. The greatest myth in Mosman is that half the market is for sale. This would equate to 2,450 houses which is a complete nonsense. Currently just 2.5 to 3 per cent are on the market. A far cry from our previous house volume trades of 6 to 8 per cent which we put down to the raspberry factor.

Back to Patricia and our blog “Hello again … Another disquieting aspect of the current Mosman market is the high volume of single –family homes available for lease for $1,000+ /wk.

In a normal market, www.domain.com.au ordinarily lists 40 – 45 Mosman houses for lease. Currently there are over 90 available with the majority over $1,000/wk. MANY of these have been available for several months. It appears that the corporate leasing markets have all but disappeared.
Thanks for any thoughts on this leasing segment.”

The leasing market for houses is actually on par with normal market demand and when one removes the double-dipping, Mosman has actually just 66 houses for lease. Although Domain lists this week’s volume as being 77 houses. It needs to be noted that more than a few properties are multi listed. The top-end of the market is somewhat weak – a result of the GFC. It should be noted that a few vendors who have sold have gone into rental properties.

Back to bottoms – up! When you look at this week’s sales activity (remember where you read it first), RWM sold two properties for $3.025 million and $3.500 million, a home in Waitovu Street was sold for $3.800 million, Prince Albert Street $6.000 million, Hopetoun Avenue $7.000 million and the big double digit Clifton Garden’s sale. RWM posted the highest recorded sale for 2008 with the sale of a Raglan Street waterfront for $14.700 million and last week’s sale is not far behind it. Congratulations to Richard Simeon who negotiated both these sales. All the sales recorded over the last week were Internet based advertising campaigns. I am of the opinion that our Mosman property market has now bottomed (given the current anecdotal sales evidence) when compared to the 2008 sales volumes.

I will address the stimulus package next week. What I find interesting is that Kevin Rudd is allocating taxpayer funds that our hopeless and useless State Governments were supposed to expend, based on tax receipts. Much like Mum and Dad bailing out a sibling on a margin call. Kevin Rudd is attempting to buy another term in government at taxpayer expense. Double dipping in taxation is simply not acceptable. State wastage is of greater concern. On the 7.30 Report this week host Kerry O’Brien asked Prime Minister Kevin Rudd if the NSW government would struggle to assemble a Lego set, let alone an infrastructure package. Rudd did not answer the question (for very obvious reasons).

State governments complained when Australia was in economic growth that they needed greater GST receipts and let’s be honest we are in mild recession. Just that it takes eight months to be told that we are in recession. The GST receipts will be down by forty per cent so Fort Crumble (NSW Government) is now bankrupt.

Bottoms – up and cheers to that and blog away ^__^

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Stephen Patrick – 0413 834 848

Richard Simeon – 0411 499 906

Robert Simeon – 0411 856 969

Mark Manners – 0403 032 700

Jacqui Rowland -Smith – 0411 714 442

Marize Bellomo – 0414 972 203

Belinda Holmes – 0421 735 150

We wish each and every one of you a very Merry Christmas, a prosperous New Year, health and wealth in 2009 and beyond.

Better still the 2008 property “twilight” zones where (aside from media) the only thing that I see knocking is opportunity. Given the current propensity of living in the past like casting similarities to The Great Depression what many forget is that in 1995 our lives were then programmed for the greatest (not depression) change ever seen before – that being the Internet (exactly where you are now).

I invited my fellow directors, both highly respected and successful Mosman real estate agents Stephen Patrick and Richard Simeon to share their thoughts on where they believe our property markets are headed and this is what they (independently) had to say. We are the only Mosman real estate agency to offer live market commentaries to our clients with our weekly and now daily blogs – where we invite your participation. Given what is happening this is nothing more than “moving with the times”. Just that someone has to lead our property market which is exactly what our latest online platform is designed for – that being you, our property clientele.

Stephen Patrick – “Every day I’m asked to predict our future real estate market, both short term and long term”. For the last 25 years I have taken the challenge, and being a conservative realist, reckon I came pretty close to reading the cycles. However, this time around there are so many varying factors in our now global economy that I really am struggling to come up with a confident prediction?

The way I see it, the “smart people” got us into this trouble and can’t get us out, so I have given up listening to them and instead, I’m listening to the majority of people, with real jobs and normal lives. They give us a true sentiment of what is going on out there.

Most are feeling the strain, and even though still comfortably off and in steady employment or solid businesses, they are keeping their pennies close for a rainy day. It has now been raining for some time and more showers are forecast.

My forecast, after seeing the last 4 to 5 years of growth in the stock market go down the gurgler so quickly, is that people will go back to bricks and mortar safety. Why? Because they can drive past it every day and see something of substance and security. They can rent it or live in it. The secret now, is when to buy. I think that would probably be about now and into early next year.

We have seen the market come off around 10% recently to get a sale over the line. The prime property will hold up better than the rest and that has always been the case. The one thing different this time around is that there are plenty of buyers with money, waiting for an opportunity. They are just being more careful with it, unlike the early 90′s when very few people were cashed up and interest rates were at 18 per cent.

Word around is that the biggest bank has taken an approximate 100 billion in cash deposits in the last few months and the super funds are also sitting on a bundle of cash. Don’t forget that each small and large business pays in 9% every month, which would also be sitting there in cash…So when they hit the equity market they will hit it hard. Property should then follow hard as well, but the ‘Crazy Ones’ will already be in! Then again “fortune does favour the brave”. Thanks Steve.

Richard Simeon – “The Mosman market is off 10 to 15 per cent so is it better to sell and buy now compared to 2007? Yes and here’s why. Today’s market-savvy vendors are happy to (potentially) take 10 to 15 percent less than their property’s 2007 base value, as they then intend to re-purchase at the same rate, or even better. Make sure you consider the lower buying price when you sell.

Remember that purchasers are “gold” in the current marketplace. In 2007, buyers sold for more, but particularly if they traded up. They then paid a premium for buying in a stronger market further inflated by considerably more buyers at that time. In direct comparison, you may be ahead financially, by selling and re-buying now.

My other tip is to realise that the reason for the increased volume of stock is that smart purchasers are (understandably) refusing to buy compromised properties at unrealistic prices. Buyers, you should be choosy but when you find a good property, grab it, as it generally takes a year or longer to find a worthy replacement. Take a longer term view and buy quality property, which is realistically priced. In years to come it will quickly appreciate, year on year, versus chasing today’s perceived bargain buy’ which will always be just that. Don’t be “penny wise and pound foolish”. Thanks Richard.

Always interesting to get market perspectives from others who actually work the daily real estate coal face, with this edition we are endeavouring to offer advice and clarity to what’s actually happening in our property markets. The market perception that there is a tsunami of houses currently on the market is not a correct presumption given that on www.domain.com.au there are currently 170 houses in Mosman on the market and the other 4,730 houses are simply not cutting key’s for real estate agents to take buyers through.

It will be riveting to see how the federal Government (Fort Fumble) roll out their industrial relations (IR) legislation given that unemployment rates will significantly increase. In all probability by April 2009 we can expect an announcement that Australia is also in recession. Simply put: we need to acknowledge then get on with it. What has happened is not indelible, collectively and constructively the onus is now on us all to transform markets and lead by example.

The Westpac – Melbourne Institute index of economic activity announced this week that our economic growth fell to 1.1 per cent in September which was significantly down from the 3.5 per cent posted in August. The definition of a recession is two successive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP), where the October figures (when announced) in all probability will be below 1.1 per cent.
As a result the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will continue to cut the cash rate aggressively well into 2009 as they need to fast improve consumer and business sentiment.

It should be noted that with this graph Macquarie Research noted “It is important to note that whilst businesses became extremely pessimistic in the month (October) actual conditions (down 10 points to -11) remained well above the 1990/91 recessionary levels of around -40 index points. This suggests that while firms are becoming exceedingly cautious about the economic outlook, actual conditions remain far stronger than recessionary levels.”

On a house keeping note – Fort Fumble have asked us to advise subscribers that over the Christmas period the Navy has shut down due to the ABC Learning debacle. “Defence, like most of the public service, relies on ABC Learning for child -care services for its workers.” All those holidaying between Avalon and Palm Beach are asked to text 1800 – Attack should they witness any naval activities from their sun beds. Illegal fishing is not of primary (no pun intended) concern given these unforseen and unprecedented circumstances are unique in our first year of gilding the Aussie lily. Fort Fumble will abbreviate its call sign to F – troop over the Christmas break.

I’m thinking Yes Minister! We would love to hear your thoughts? Steve, Richard and myself, are happy to blog with you should you like to challenge our respective market outlooks and forecasts.

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Cheers ^__^

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