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The alarm bells became louder when it was announced last week that Australian GDP had contracted by 1.2 per cent – which quickly brought about the re-introduction of that R word – Recession. Blogs and newspaper reporting ran amok, with some suggesting that the East Coast of Australia was already in recession. This week the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) correctly decided to leave the cash rate steady at 4.75 per cent. I don’t believe we will find ourselves in a technical recession although I do concur with the economic analogies that the Australian economy is correcting.  However, I believe (and I’m sure the majority would agree) that the weakest link in the Australian economy is the Gillard government.

Natural disasters dominated our GDP results although it is becoming quite evident that many Australians think the Gillard government is the economic equivalent to Cyclone Yasi.

CEO Pulse: Confidence in Australian economy declines – the latest Business Spectator Accenture CEO Pulse survey shows that optimism in the domestic economy, has dropped 22 per cent, with surveyed chief executives running  companies with an Australian turnover of $100 million or more,– reporting a decline in optimism to 51 per cent, compared to 73 per cent in the first quarter of 2011. The CEO’s estimation of the government’s performance in managing the economy continues its downward trend, with an overall rating of 3.3 out of 10 – the lowest average score since the CEO Pulse survey was established in early 2010.

BUY PRINT

Wategos Beach, Byron Bay – Tim Mooney’s aerial photo library would have to the most extensive in Australia. If you want a special photo click on the link and ask Tim as he probably has it.

Carbon price would not cut jobs, says Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan. One should not forget that when the GST came in, we were assured that it would reduce taxes, only to see the opposite.  Julia Gillard feels the heat over carbon tax backlash as voters call for new election given the carbon price will continue to be increased not decreased. It is an ongoing saga especially when you read Robert Gottliebsen’s piece in Business Spectator A resource tax by another name – “Let’s strip away all the carbon tax political rhetoric. It is becoming clear that the looming carbon tax is simply a disguised resources tax on gas and coal exports. It’s the Ken Henry – Wayne Swan first mining tax all over again but without iron ore and copper.” Wayne Swan is desperate to get the budget back in the black (his ego demands it) and the carbon tax is his secret weapon – it has nothing to do with the environment it’s just another tax. Ziggy Switkowski entered the debate by declaring Refuse the carbon tax’s junk mail.Would we have a carbon tax if the budget was not hopelessly in deficit?  Of course not!

We’re still on track for a ‘big Australia’ by 2050 and it is refreshing to see where our new immigrants are coming from, given the focus on asylum seekers. When immigration heads north of 180,000, Australia’s population will be on track to reach 36 million by 2050. This is scary, given our infrastructure struggles to cope with 22 million. I did notice a missing link in the Migration Roller – Coaster graph is the “other” which contributes nearly one – third at 94,178? “Australia’s national infrastructure policy should be managed in the same way as monetary policy – by an independent body removed from politics” wrote Alan Kohler – Infrastructure too important to be left to politics.

I totally agree and I can see the advertisement – Wanted: A government that can read an economy!

Jonathan Chancellor’s Property Observer launched this week to rave reviews. In terms of subscribers, it has taken Virtual Realty News eleven years! Property Observer has all but eclipsed our subscriber numbers in the space of days. For all the property voyeurs who can’t get enough of Australian real estate reporting, subscription is a must and it’s  free!

House prices can’t go up indefinitely although it should be noted that house values spend a significantly greater time in the black than in the red – just that we read more when it ventures into the red! The ongoing debate is that Australian house prices are over- valued – however when this happens we see panic-selling, where supply well and truly exceeds demand.

To put this into perspective, Christopher Joye wrote this week in Property Observer – Aussie housing stock is not too expensive. “One of the reasons banks have been prepared to lend so much for so long is the fact that borrowers have historically been vigilant in paying off these loans. Today there are slightly more than 30,000 borrowers who are more than three months behind on their home loan repayments, juxtaposed against a total pool of roughly 4 million to 5 million borrowers. That is, Australia’s “mortgage default rate” is a paltry 0.7%, despite our internationally high lending rates. This is less than one – 10^th and one – quarter the equivalent US and UK default rates respectfully.”

Our local real estate markets are definitely not panicking and volume is the key performance indicator.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 118
• Number of houses on the market this week – 107
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 96
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 97

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week –  17
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 37
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 42

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 13
• Number of houses on the market this week – 11
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 66
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 63

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Property above all things is my passion, so I found it very difficult to resist Jonathan Chancellor’s invitation to become an Observer, by regularly contributing articles to Property Observer.

Jonathan did express some concerns about my writing style (I believe he was politely referring to my political attacks). I referred him to this month’s Real Estate Institute of NSW Journal that ran the story “In blog we trust”, which was a critique of Virtual Realty News.

“The online revolution has changed the way real estate agencies do business. And you can be even more effective and successful by creating a specialised blog.” I did, however highlight “A mixture of local real estate news, statistics and astutely directed political comment. Virtual Realty News has generated not only a solid fan base, but has also brought the agency some very tangible benefits.”

Subscribe to Property Observer and read it for yourself next week. I’m still deliberating – should I go hard or adopt a ‘softly softly’ approach?

I will note your advice on our blog.

Cheers  ^__^

 

 

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10.06.11Robert Simeon10 Comments »

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However, (for some) there will be strong consequences along the way – which is always the case when governments artificially inseminate markets in an attempt to prop them up in uncertain financial times. One only has to look closely at the cash rate movements at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to see the storm clouds on the horizon after the RBA slashed the cash rate to 3.00 per cent in April 2009. And bear in mind that it was 7.25 per cent in March 2008. At or about the same time, Governments at both state and federal levels were promoting the First Home Buyers Grant (FHBG). First time purchasers locked in a fixed rate as shelter from the ongoing rental increases under cover of Stamp Duty inducements in the form of grants. One does not need to be Einstein to calculate that the cash rate will be significantly higher when the fixed loan agreement expires. Yet for some strange reason, the banks are blamed.

The “Big Four” banks have recently announced the removal of the much despised exit fees so now customers have freedom of choice to shop around. Maybe Fort Fumble’s treasurer Wayne Swan would like to explain why he approved Westpac’s acquisition of St George Bank and the CBA’s acquisition of Bank West? Instead we read Treasurer Wayne Swan flags change to four – pillars policy “the government is determined to see a new pillar in the banking system, particularly based on our mutual sector.”

If St George and Bank West were still individual entities they would be pillars five and six and the building societies and credit unions would fill positions seven, eight, nine, ten etc. Instead we see Independents back Greens’ bank bill which is nothing more than a misguided attempt to overhaul banks. The bill follows weeks of debate over the size of bank chiefs’ pay packets, interest rate hikes, high fees and the power of the big four banks. Here we go again, with more political posturing and a memory vacuum, when we consider that these very same bank chiefs positioned their respective pillars to be world’s best, during the global financial crisis. Unlike other countries, Fort Fumble was not required to bail them out and ironically today, they are bailing out on them!

The double exit strategy – excuse me for laughing as I have just read The best price signaller in the land by Peter Costello.

BUY PRINT

One thing for sure with property prices, is that there will always be waves of hysteria coupled with those who like to make waves. If you can’t ride it stay on the sand – Virtual Realty News

“Now that both sides of politics have decided to crack down on the evil practice of price signalling we might as well ask who does it and why. Because some people may not be aware that the biggest price signaller is not the Commonwealth Bank or Westpac or any of the other “evil” commercial banks. The biggest price signaller in the interest rate market is the Reserve Bank, the one the government owns.” Said Peter Costello. Of course the banks need more consistency given banks slower to lift deposit than interest rates where the more money they hold as deposits, the greater the control they have over the costs of funding. Hardly an instrument to entice depositors!

Rising wages ‘outpace growth’ the warning comes as new figures show wages are increasing at their quickest rate in two years. Business groups highlighted the potential for the $43 billion National Broadband Network to “exacerbate skill shortages and drive up wages”. Personally, I am yet to meet a supporter of this broadband ‘white elephant’. I’m definitely not a supporter and believe the money could be much better spent on hospitals, rail and roads. When I look at our Google Analytics for our website which includes Virtual Realty News it reveals the Connection Speeds – 39.97 per cent use DSL, 26.16 per cent are on Cable, 24.5 per cent are Unknown, 5.92 per cent use T1 and 1.72 per cent are on Dialup (once upon a time we were all on Dialup). For the NBN project to provide a return on capital, Fort Fumble requires over 8,000,000 million Australian to sign up. Talk about ‘the impossible dream’!

Here is why Australia can ill afford another “white elephant” as Kevin Rudd shared the blame for Labor’s errors. Addressing a business function earlier this week Mine boom biggest shock, says Treasury Ken Henry. Dr Henry said the current mining boom was between three and four times bigger than the last big boom in the 1970’s, which pushed inflation up to 17.5 per cent. Inflation is currently running at 2.80 per cent. Reserve Bank of Australia says the boom to run for 20 years as the tally of resource projects with mining firms’ commitments, soars to $133bn. At your service, our economy’s a work in progress by Ross Gittins from the Sydney Morning Herald “The structure of our economy is set to change over the 2010s, creating winners and losers and plenty of complaints. So it’s worth remembering the economy’s structure has been changing continuously since the gold rush”. Which brings us to The boom is back, and this time we may avoid the bust or will we? If we do survive we are going to need plenty of help from those banking “four pillars”.

Treasury’s move from mining to real estate during the week, was more a case of undermining the Department of Bricks and Mortar – Treasury sounds the alarm on ‘property bubble. Treasury has privately sought reassurance from its analysts that prices are not artificially high and that Australia does not face the kind of house price collapse that has hit Britain and the USA. Maybe they should read RBA intervened to avert housing slump given Aust mortgage market seen stable in third quarter. Total construction work done in Australia, fell 2.1 per cent in the September quarter. Our population is growing and building is declining!

So let’s see what is happening to Mosman prices for houses and units.

Source: Australian Property Monitors

Source: Australian Property Monitors

The Dyson Austen Top Ten Prestige Residential Survey 2010 Q3 July – September prepared for the Real Estate Institute of NSW, will be released this weekend – so here is a sneak preview for our Virtual Realty News subscribers. We thank Simon Feilich from Dyson Austen for the early scoop (being a subscriber has advantages).

The total value of the survey has increased forty two (42) per cent from the previous quarter thanks to the record breaking $52 million sale at 100 Wolseley Road Point Piper. The Eastern Suburbs dominate the results, recording ninety per cent of the recorded sales – a phenomenal effort. The graph that I always look forward to viewing is the highest value and total value of Top Ten transactions per quarter from 2004 to 2010 to see how our markets are aiming up. “Quarter 3 2010 recorded the fourth highest quarter on record – the main driver in this quarter is the almost ten (10) per cent increase in the equity market in July 2010” said Simon Feilich. All in all a very strong message for our top-end property markets.

So for those who are huffing and puffing about property prices, don’t forget that in every back garden you will always find swings and roundabouts.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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26.11.10Robert Simeon7 Comments »

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Here we go again – Mad Monday wiped $40 billion from our shock – markets and once again, hedge funds ran amok with an  insatiable desire to short stocks. Throw in the calamities of Europe, a highly sensitive super tax on mining and  a federal election and we see emotions running high.  What is abundantly clear is, that financial markets now, more than ever before, will dictate property markets results for quite a few years to come.  As they say “money makes the world go around” and it would be fair to suggest that currently, it is spinning much slower.

With world economies delicately poised and many drowning with self induced sovereign debt,  parts of Europe are crawling on the banking bridge of bankruptcy. Greece laid low by its decadence it was quick to blame US banks for debt woes. Brace for China’s heavy breaking was concerning also given the revelation that Germany still fears a meltdown.

What we are presently seeing from China will play a dominant role on the Australian economy, since China is trimming its commodity shopping list – hence a weaning off Aussie minerals. This suggests that Fort Fumble’s (federal government) resources super profit tax will be revoked due to international circumstances. Not exactly a great week for The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) when shares hit a nine – month low then our Aussie dollar nosedives as Europe worries bite. It should be noted that plenty of investors are actively buying up US dollars (USD) – the CCC – Current Calamity Currency.

BUY PRINT

Not a great week for Fort Grumble (federal opposition) Abbott put to the sword over ‘gospel truth’ gaffe which I thought was best summed up with even the honest ones find it hard to lie straight in bed. Whichever way you look at it the next federal election will be a brutal contest, won or lost in Queensland which I don’t necessarily agree with as this election is about money – Rudd’s budget trick: pie in the sky when you die.

Much is being said about what is happening in the Australian property markets so let’s attempt to clear the picture. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released Recent Developments in the Housing Market and its Financing by Luci Ellis Head of Financial Stability Department – now that would be one tough job. “Housing is a big deal. It’s the biggest purchase most of us will make. It’s an asset class worth almost $4 trillion, accounting for around 60 per cent of household assets in Australia. Loans to buy property account for nearly 90 per cent of all household debt and around 40 per cent of the assets of Australian banks and other deposit – takers.”

Now it gets interesting as “housing prices in Australia have more than recovered from their small decline in 2008. In the first three months of 2010, prices were growing quite smartly.”

Demand – side Drivers

Unprecedented low interest rates marinated with Government policies of First Home Buyer Grants where the RBA has raised the cash rate by +0.25 per cent from six of its last seven meetings. The HIA/Commonwealth Bank survey of first – home buyer affordability dropped four per cent in the March quarter to its lowest since the September quarter of 2008. HIA senior economist Ben Phillips predicted that the RBA’s  interest rate rises in April and May would probably see housing affordability sink to the record lows of 2007 when mortgage rates rose above 9 per cent.

The First Home Owners Grant was introduced in July 2000; the Australian quarterly weighted average median house price was $220,443. The Australian weighted average median house price in the most recent quarter for which data is available, December 2009, was $514,599.

With interest I read this week in the Macquarie Economics Research Report

• The RBA recently upgraded its medium – term inflation forecasts to three per cent, which suggests that there is certainly more work to do regarding the tightening of monetary policy in this cycle.
• As a result, we expect that the RBA will recommence tightening later in the year, taking the cash rate to 5.00 per cent by the end of 2010 and 6.00 per cent by the end of 2011.

That  said, I would  like to hear its views given that Wayne Swan predicted (in current budget papers) that it would remain around 2.5 per cent in 2011. I will make a prediction of 3.5 per cent for the June 2010 quarter, 4.2 per cent for the September quarter 2010 and 5.0 per cent for December quarter 2010. Who would have thought double – digit inflation a possibility?

The Role of the Supply Side

“Together with these demand – side drivers, the supply side is important. The supply of housing is always going to be quite sluggish: most of it is already there. The additional amount of new supply is inherently small relative to the stock.”

Bear in mind banks on global hunt for $ 125 billion where pre global financial crisis long – term funding used by the major banks to finance mortgages, personal loans and business credit will have to be replaced at much higher prices between now and September next year. This signals that the cost of money is getting more expensive, rents will go through the roof and we expect vacancy rates to hit all time lows. Brace yourself for some financial turbulence ahead.

Property market clues are RBA warns lenders and borrowers to be prudent combined with top homes take double time to sell a natural response given the economic environment. With the Aussie dollar in freefall as our share market smashed down to lowest in nine months which is certainly not helped as European and Japanese investors are selling down due to Fort Fumble’s new mining tax which is significantly affecting the sovereign risk of Australia – the huge bear raid on Australia.

Here is a classic example of why our property markets performed so differently during the global financial crisis. With subprime, the banks in America could not chase on default.  In Australia they can – with vigour and dire consequences, otherwise  known as bankruptcy.

The Financial Stability Perspective

“Even if household balance sheets were to become overstretched to some extent, historical experience suggests that this, on its own, is unlikely to pose significant risk to Australia’s financial system.

“If we focus on the group of households with debt that have higher repayment burdens and high loan – to – valuation ratios, we can see that their numbers have risen over time. But overall percentage has remained very low. This was true even in late 2008, the latest available data, when mortgage interest rates, and thus repayments, were at their peak.”

The Key Role of Lending Standards

“Only a minority of recent home loan borrowers started with a loan – to – valuation ratio above 90 per cent. First home buyers have long faced greater risk than more established home owners who have more equity in their home.” This was clearly evidenced in Mosman during the global financial crisis where ‘mortgagee in possession’ sales could be counted on just two hands (with spare fingers).

This is definitely not a time to be carrying high debt ratios given all that is happening globally and yes, the cost of money is going up due to unprecedented sovereign debt collapses.

Memo to: The Emperor

Subject: Resource Super Profit Tax (RSPT)

We are faced with market suicide – “mining tax ‘contagion’ set to spread globally your resources tax was not designed to frighten, but investors may be scared anyway.  Just take a look at what is happening to the Aussie dollar whacked as debt crisis bites. The global financial crisis not over yet, just delayed so stop upsetting the mining companies and let them – (not you) lead this great nation back down the road to recovery. We need them in Australia – not out of it!

Welcome home – Jessica Watson.  Can you tell The Emperor, that no other Prime Minister has ever sailed solo around the world (clue) and a Pink Lady awaits him for his voyage.

The Real Estate Institute of NSW has just announced that it has secured an undertaking from Barry O’Farrell that he will repeal the ad valorem tax should the NSW Liberals and Nationals be elected in the upcoming state election.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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21.05.10Robert Simeon17 Comments »

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I love an exclusive! Hang the expense (no pun intended), as we closely examine the impact of the global financial crisis on Sydney’s top – end housing markets. Courtesy of Dyson Austen & Co Pty Ltd, a leading property valuation company, we publish its comprehensive quarterly reports from Quarter 3 – July to September 2008 to Quarter 2 – April to June 2009. These are compelling results.

This is the first time these reports have been published (in the public domain) and what an insight it offers to better understand these mysterious market machinations. Simon Feilich, director of Dyson Austen also offers his expert commentary and independent predictions relating to Sydney’s (recession proof) rich and famous. We have also engaged the master of aerial photography, Tim Mooney,to share with you, a closer insight into some of these spectacular Sydney residential homes. Another amazing statistic is that Tim Mooney photographed approximately ninety per cent of these prestige properties – a clue for real estate agents and vendors. Aerial photographs are a must!

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

The quarterly Dyson Austen prestige residential survey, prepared for the Real Estate Institute of NSW for the last 4 quarters, has been released today and Director, Simon Feilich, said “ it indicates a reduction in gross sales per quarter of almost 45% from its peak of September 2008.The decrease in real terms was approx $110 million from $198 million”.

Dyson Austen Top 10 Sydney Prestige Residential Survey 2008 Q3 July – September

In this period interest rates decreased from 7.25 per cent to 7 per cent.

Top 10

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1. 23 – 25 Coolong Road Vaucluse $45.000 million
2. 23 Victoria Street Watsons Bay $28.100 million
3. 108 Wolseley Road Point Piper $27.000 – $28.000 million
4. 4 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $22.500 million
5. 114 Wolseley Road Point Piper $20.550 million
6. 92 – 94 Prince Alfred Parade Newport $14.600 million
7. 9 Caledonian Road Rose Bay $10.800 million
8. 15 Thompson Street Tamarama $10.500 million
9. 12A & 12C Crescent Street Hunters Hill $9.200 million
10. 56 & 57/56 Pirrama Road Pyrmont $9.140 million

Total $197.890 million the highest ever recorded.

Dyson Austen Top 10 Sydney Prestige Residential Survey 2008 Q4 October – December

In this period interest rates decreased from 7 per cent to 4.25 per cent.
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Top 10

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1. 4 & 6 Burran Avenue Mosman $19.750 million
2. 37 Wunulla Road Point Piper $18.450 million
3. 9 Wentworth Place Point Piper $14.900 million
4. 2 Loch Maree Place Vaucluse $12.500 million
5. 20 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $12.500 million*
6. 22 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $12.500 million*
7. 7 Wharf Road Vaucluse $12.000 – $13.000 million*
8. 39 – 40 Ocean Road Palm Beach $12.000 million
9. 43 Wharf Road Birchgrove $11.500 million
10. (=) 4 Wolseley Crescent Point Piper $10.500 million
(=) 1 Arbutus Street Mosman $10.500 million

Total $137,100 million the sixth highest ever recorded. * Approximately

Tim Mooney Photography

.www.timmooneyphotography.com

Dyson Austen Top 10 Sydney Prestige Residential Survey 2009 Q1 January – March

In this period interest rates decreased from 4.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent.
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Top 10

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1. 5 Rose Bay Avenue Bellevue Hill $17.000 million
2. 25 Victoria Street Watsons Bay $16.000 million
3. 8A Ginahgulla Road Bellevue Hill $15.000 million
4. 6 Buena Vista Avenue Mosman $13.200 million
5. 29 New South Head Road Vaucluse $12.900 million
6. 71 Yarranabbe Road Darling Point $12.600 million
7. 22 Rosemount Avenue Woollahra $11.800 million
8. 53 Fitzwilliam Road Vaucluse $9.000 million
9. 1A Arbutus Street Mosman $8.500 million
10. 86B Victoria Road Bellevue Hill $7.900 million

Total $123.900 million the ninth highest ever recorded. * Approximately

Dyson Austen Top 10 Sydney Prestige Residential Survey 2009 Q2 April – June

In this period interest rates decreased from 3.25 per cent to 3.00 per cent.
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Top 10

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1. 40 Wentworth Road Vaucluse $18.000 million
2. 2 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $16.450 million
3. 1129 Barrenjoey Road Palm Beach $12.000 million
4. 16 Tivoli Avenue Rose Bay $10.500 million*
5. 20 Tivoli Avenue Rose Bay $10.500 million*
6. 15A Burran Avenue Mosman $10.250 million*
7. 22A Vaucluse Road Vaucluse $9.000 million*
8. 44 – 46 Lang Road Centennial Park $8.300 million
9. 12/12 Onslow Avenue Elizabeth Bay $8.000 – $8.300 million*
10. 17 Trelawaney Street Woollahra $7.850 million

Total $110.115 million the fifteenth highest ever recorded. *Approximately

Agent in order of how many of the sales over 12 months they were involved in -

LJ Hooker Double Bay 8
Ray White Double Bay 7
Ken Jacobs 5
McGrath 4
Raine & Horne Double Bay 3
Richardson & Wrench Mosman 2
Knight Frank 2
Laing & Simmons Double Bay 2
LJ Hooker Palm Beach 2
Cassim 2
Richardson & Wrench Double Bay 2
Bradfield & Pritchard 1
Feldi 1
Goodyer Donnelly 1
LJ Hooker Avalon 1
Place 1
Raine & Horne Mosman 1
Ray White Lower North Shore 1
Richardson & Wrench Elizabeth Bay 1
Sotheby’s 1
Ward 1

Source: Dyson Austen

www.dysonausten.com.au
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40 sales for the year in dollar value order – July 2008 to June 2009

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23-25 Coolong Road Vaucluse $45.000 Q308 McGrath / Cassim
23 Victoria Street Watsons Bay $28.100 Q308 Ken Jacobs / RW DB
108 Wolseley Road Point Piper $27.500 Q308 R&W DB
4 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $22.500 Q308 RW DB
114 Wolseley Road Point Piper $20.550 Q308 LJH DB
4 & 6 Burran Avenue Mosman $19.750 Q408 R&H Mosman
37 Wunulla Road Point Piper $18.450 Q408 LJH DB / L&S DB
40 Wentworth Road Vaucluse $18.000 Q209 RWDB / Cassim
5 Rose Bay Avenue Bellevue Hill $17.000 Q109 LJH DB
2 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $16.450 Q209 RWDB
25 Victoria Street Watsons Bay $16.000 Q109 No agent
8A Ginahgulla Road Bellevue Hill $15.000 Q109 RWDB
9 Wentworth Place Point Piper $14.900 Q408 Sotheby’s / LJH DB
92-94 Prince Alfred Parade Newport $14.600 Q308 LJH Avalon
6 Buena Vista Avenue Mosman $13.200 Q109 R&W Mosman
29 New South Head Road Vaucluse $12.900 Q109 R&H DB
71 Yarranabbe Road Darling Point $12.600 Q109 R&H DB
2 Loch Maree Place Vaucluse $12.500 Q408 LJH DB
20 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $12.500 Q408 RW DB / Ken Jacobs
22 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $12.500 Q408 Ken Kacobs
7 Wharf Road Vaucluse $12.500 Q408 R&W DB
39-40 Ocean Road Palm Beach $12.000 Q408 Knight Frank / LJH PB
1129 Barenjoey Road Palm Beach $12.000 Q209 RW DB
22 Rosemont Avenue Woollahra $11.800 Q109 McGrath
43 Wharf Road Birchgrove $11.500 Q408 No agent
9 Caledonian Road Rose Bay $10.800 Q308 RW DB
4 Wolseley Crescent Point Piper $10.500 Q408 R&H DB
1 Arbutus Street Mosman $10.500 Q408 RW LNS
16 Tivoli Avenue Rose Bay $10.500 Q209 LJH DB
20 Tivoli Avenue Rose Bay $10.500 Q209 LJH DB
15 Thompson Street Tamarama $10.500 Q308 Goodyer Donnelly
15A Burran Avnue Mosman $10.250 Q209 Ken Jacobs / R&W Mosman
12A & 12C Crescent Street Hunters Hill $9.200 Q308 Ward Partners
56 & 57/56 Pirrama Road Pyrmont $9.140 Q308 Feldi
53 Fitzwilliam Road Vaucluse $9.000 Q109 L&S DB
22A Vaucluse Road Vaucluse $9.000 Q209 Ken Jacobs
1A Arbutus Street Mosman $8.500 Q109 McGrath
44-46 Lang Road Centennial Park $8.300 Q209 Knight Frank / B&P
12/12 Onslow Avenue Elizabeth Bay $8.150 Q209 R&W EB/PP
86B Victoria Road Bellevue Hill $7.900 Q109 Place / LJH DB
17 Trelawney Street Woollahra $7.850 Q209 McGrath

Source: Dyson Austen

www.dysonausten.com.au

So let’s extrapolate this data. Dyson Austen Director Simon Feilich said “This takes us back to the June Quarter 2006 which had a lower quarterly total of approx $88 million.”

“In viewing the top 40 sales for the year, the top 5 all occurred in the 3rd quarter 2008, and as the world global financial crises got worse so too did this sector.”

“The five lowest sales all occurred in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2009 and were as low as $7.5500 million.”

“One of the strengths in the September 2008 quarter was due to the $A dollar collapsing by approximately 17.5 %.”

“The future is hard to predict and revolves around the buoyancy of the equity market which has seen rapid increases since its lows of 2009.”

“Should there be no “w” in the economy but rather the “v” which some commentators believe is the case, continuing strength in the equity market and increased funds available in the lending markets , with unemployment not decreasing I think the worst is over.”

For those unsure of this “w” and “v” language, “w” = double dip in the economy, a recovery, then another collapse and “v” = is what we have at the moment where recovery continues in an upward trend.

It’s all about confidence – the National Australia Bank (NAB) this week released its monthly business survey’s measure of business confidence which increased 8 index points to plus – 18 points in August. The highest level in almost six years (2003).

This week’s unemployment figures identified that it has steadied although it should be noted that there still remains some degree of volatility and hopefully it has peaked at 5.7 per cent – well below the projected 8 per cent.

Carsales.com floated this week which was a great test for our financial markets. Business Spectator reported. “There would have been a lot of relieved investment bankers and promoters after Carsales.com drove smoothly onto the ASX lists. The listing, the first big initial float since the financial crisis erupted, was seen as a vital tone-setter for the pipeline of IPOs, some larger, to come.

A solid gain of about 10 per cent on the $3.50 issue price would be regarded as a ‘just about right’ outcome – not too big a gain to upset the relatively small group of pre-existing shareholders who sold into the offer process but big enough to make the subscribers content.”

That, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of this week’s report and remember where you read it first. My special thanks to Simon Feilich and Tim Mooney for their much appreciated assistance with the preparation of this week’s edition of Virtual Realty News.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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11.09.09Robert Simeon1 Comment »