Posts Tagged ‘RBA’

No money – no honey!

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It’s that simple – Failure in Washington “Sometimes it seems that an American talent for self – congratulation is surpassed only by a talent for self – delusion.” The United States debt is now over $14 trillion and nearly two – thirds is public debt which is owed to the people, businesses and foreign governments. The US debt is the largest in the world and now has so many discussing The U.S. National Debt and how it got so big? Even before the economic crisis, the U.S. debt grew 50 per cent between 2000 – 2007, ballooning from $6 trillion to $9 trillion. The $700 billion bailout helped the debt grow to 10.5 trillion by December 2008.

Even scarier, the debt level is the debt as a per cent of the total country’s production, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which was $14.7 trillion in 2010. Makes one wonder what the real figure is today? The debt is 95 per cent of GDP, up from 51 per cent in 1988. Interest on the debt was $414 billion in Fiscal Year 2010 and that was with the AAA credit rating – which was downgraded last week to AA and 10 million jobs short of full employment. The U.S. has enjoyed a AAA credit rating since 1941.

Last Sunday, I was reading the Bangkok Post Ratings Downgrade prompts attack China blasts US over debt problems “China gave the United States a dressing down over its debt problems yesterday, questioning whether the US dollar should remain the world’s reserve currency and urging the superpower to live within its means.” So we now enter Global Financial Crisis Mark ll and where will the money come from this time? Second GFC has become their debt to society with many asking – The last plan failed. So what’s the plan?

BUY PRINT

The US downgrade resulted in a market bloodbath for the Australian equity markets resulting in the worst three day slump since November 2008. Global debt crisis could last 20 years, warns Future Fund chairman David Murray “We’re a highly indebted nation overall. If you add up all government debt in Australia plus private sector debt, the aggregate is high.” He then went on to say “so in Australia at the moment we need a significant reduction in government debt, we need things that will drive private sector investment and success which generally means in the business sector lower taxes.” BHP Billiton chairman Jac Nasser strongly criticised two of the government’s key policy platforms, warning against spending $36 billion on the National Broadband Network and the aggressive timetable for a carbon tax – BHP’s Jac Nasser gives government productivity warning.

The Australian – Order Bill Leak’s Print

The U.S. financial debacle prompted Fort Fumble to issue a statement: Labor won’t budge on surplus for 2012/13 despite economists tip rocky road for surplus target. In a week full of riveting reading I enjoyed reading an article by Warwick McKibbin Ditch the delusion that stimulus saved us from the GFC a point I have been arguing in Virtual Realty News for years. Although in another back flip Wayne Swan appears to soften budget surplus pledge, calling it an “objective” which stems back to May this year when Wayne Swan can’t say which year Labor achieved its last surplus. It remains odds on, that by the next federal election in Australia, the budget will still be in deficit – the last Labor budget surplus was during the Hawke – Keating governments in 1989 – 1990.

Interesting to note this week the decision by the Commonwealth Bank and Westpac to slash interest rates is the strongest indication yet that investors are strategically abandoning equities in favour of fixed–interest securities – rate moves point to grim future. For the moment, the financial market calamities have clouded real estate confidence although we believe this will be short-lived . Everybody needs to live with a roof over their head. Will Stevens hit the panic button? It is looking that way although (at this point in time) I just can’t see a double rate cut for September, investors bet my tip is that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keeps its powder dry.

Unlike many global banks, our banking system remains strong and I agree that CBA’s strength should be rightly seen as a plus, not a minus. Our government could not afford banking bailout, considering that it cost the U.S government $700 billion to bail its banks out in GFC Mark l. Bear in mind we now have worst retail results in 50 years which dates back to the 1961 – 62 recession. The recent equity market capitulations have seen many Mosman vendors delay their market debuts so it appears we will have to wait until late September before we see the full orchestra playing.

MOSMAN – 2088

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• Number of houses on the market July 13 – 80
• Number of houses on the market this week – 88
• Number of apartments on the market July 13 – 92
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 95

CREMORNE – 2090

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• Number of houses on the market July 13 – 16
• Number of houses on the market this week – 15
• Number of apartments on the market July 13 – 31
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 25

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

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• Number of houses on the market July 13 – 7
• Number of houses on the market this week – 6
• Number of apartments on the market July 13 – 65
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 65

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Again, no surprises with the polling: PM stalls in Newspoll doldrums as voters stay cool so it was enlightening to read that constant news cycle and rise of bloggers means quality of information at risk: PM obviously I would be surprised if that was a reference to Virtual Realty News. I’m sure if the carbon tax and National Broadband Network were canned, her polling would increase dramatically– that’s the policy with polling.

Great to be back – it will be a most eventful run into Christmas and beyond.

Cheers ^__^

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From Financial Crisis to Financial Confidence

With the healing process well underway, what has become overwhelmingly apparent, is the confidence generated by the power that lies within. Initially, the powerful information highway ran amok with comparative analysis that compared the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to the Great Depression and christened it ‘Great Depression Two’. What next? With the benefit of hindsight, fighting adversity can be very revealing, especially for those who backed their business models in trying times. If you are not prepared, you won’t be spared!

Let’s look at the rings of confidence – well the ones I recently observed that I consider noteworthy.

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The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) announced this week that our local economy should shrink 0.3 per cent in 2009 which, when compared to other OECD economies, is the lowest decline predicted. It predicts that in 2010, the Australian economy will roar back 2.4 per cent in GDP growth. The OECD identified China as the driving force and upgraded growth estimates from 6.3 per cent to 7.7 per cent in 2009 and 9.3 per cent in 2010. This is good news for Australia given that China is a major trading partner. Just as interesting, will be our June quarter GDP results. Whilst our unemployment rate is predicted to reach 7.9 per cent (lower than Budget forecasts of 8.25 to 8.5 per cent) our labour markets remain resilient compared to other global economies.

Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting in June, confirmed that Australia is negotiating the current global downturn well (also noting a very strong recovery in China). The RBA also noted that bank funding costs are rising. This coincided with a statement from the Commonwealth Bank’s head of retail banking, that the bank faces extra costs equivalent to 0.6 per cent over the next eighteen months. This announcement has seen homeowners rushing to lock in mortgage rates, believing that in Australia, interest rates have now bottomed. The lowest variable rate that can be obtained from the major banks is 5.74 per cent and three – year fixed rates this week jumped to 6.69 per cent.

Also, this week, in the opinion of The Real Estate Institute of Australia, residential property markets have bottomed and there is anecdotal evidence that property markets are now consolidating. This is in line with what we have been suggesting in recent editions (you heard it here first). Auction clearance rates are a great barometer and this week’s results certainly confirm this market positioning. Markets recording sales evidence above 80 per cent are considered booming markets.

What didn’t happen in the Mosman housing market in 2009 was a capitulation of values. The presumption that every second home was on the market never came to fruition and in 2009 it was not 50 per cent, rather 2.75 per cent. Here is a three year snapshot of Mosman house sales from 1 January to 23 June 2007, 2008 and 2009.

    1 January 2007 to 23 June 2007

  • Total recorded sales – 215
  • Total sales value – $573,794,220
  • Median house price – $2,230,000
  • Average Mosman house price – $2,668,810
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    1 January 2008 to 23 June 2008

  • Total recorded sales – 160
  • Total sales value – $452,066,112
  • Median house price – $2,530,000
  • Average Mosman house price – $2,861,177
  • (Note: less sales higher median and average price)
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    1 January 2009 to 23 June 2009

  • Total recorded sales – 95*
  • Total sales value – $218,141,001
  • Median house price – $1,780,000
  • Average Mosman house price – $2,134,602

*Our recent sales have not been included in the 2009 figures as yet

Now this is where it gets interesting – for Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) sales data.

RWM sales in June 2007 – $18,836,000
RWM sales in June 2008 – $19,815,000
RWM sales in June 2009 – $51,038,200

The reason for this amazing result (given the current GFC) is quite simple. Our point of difference is our online positioning. The number of online and email newsletters has jumped over the last five years, increasing by 475 per cent, while print (only newsletters decreased 43 per cent from 7,395 to 4,180) and those in both print and electronic formats remained about the same (4,859, vs. 4,949), according to www.mediafinder.com

The moral of this story lies in our discipline and determination to lead our industry by example. What you put into your industry of choice determines what you get out of it. Yes – writing a weekly online newsletter takes time and effort. So does maintaining one of the largest databases in the industry. However in simple terms this point of contact is what generates results.

We all know that actions speak louder than words and all any business can hope to achieve, is client satisfaction with optimum results. Subscriber sales rose this week to $899,066,219 (the Australian record) http://www.rwm.com.au/sales-list/sold_listing/

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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The “Big Four” – and we are not just talking banks.

Today we live in unprecedented times. Never before have we seen monetary policy attacked so aggressively where households (finally) come to the fore – not to be confused with four. I was speaking with a journalist this week about the state of the property markets and said. “They say you have to lose a Grand Final before you can win one. The same can be said with recessions where Generation X is much better positioned (based on previous bear markets) compared to Generation Y – who are experiencing market volatility for the first time and it is not improving – just yet.”

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GST – a far cry from the Perfect 10 and state taxes that slow growth.

We welcome you to our new look E-Zine (electronic magazine) and website which forever will identify our online points of difference. This latest online release is a defining moment within our industry and one that we obviously treat very seriously. Our electronic platform is an industry first where the customer also comes first. Please enjoy

It has been our absolute pleasure to deliver to the clients in our dynamic market, the most comprehensive online electronic property data. Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) continues to lead our markets with results, performance and innovation – “we never stop thinking about you.”

Without a doubt, the introduction of the Goods & Services Tax (GST) has seriously impacted on our markets and has definitely stymied property development and investment in housing. Some even refer to it as a Value Added Tax (VAT). The only problem is, that governments reap the financial benefits to the detriment of consumers. Banks are also reluctant to pursue mortgagee – in – possession (MIP) sales simply because they will have to pay GST on these forced sales. As stated previously, we have received just one instruction to act on a MIP sale in 2008.

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Interest Rate Poker – RBA to Deal an Interesting Hand!

What we have observed in recent times is that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) does not hold all the aces and therefore, it is highly unlikely that banks will pass on the full amount of next month’s rate cut. Since last August the RBA has moved the cash rate up one per cent. The banks added an additional 0.55 per cent given that the cost of funds to banks was actually much higher than the RBA official cash rate (hence the 0.55 per cent market fine). Continue reading »

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When Less Means More

Well it is now official! Sydney has the world’s most unaffordable housing market and because (we believe) house prices will show strong gains through to Christmas and beyond, the situation will get worse, before it gets better. Now before you jump to the conclusion that I may be suffering the effects of too much sun (following my recent break) there are some amazing statistics that have recently emerged that more than support this prediction. Continue reading »

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Growing debt proves to be no safe bet – hence caution

Without a shadow of a doubt this week identified itself as the worst “Bad News Week” since negativity crept then swept world markets in August 2007. Culminating yesterday with the share market falling 2.53 per cent based on economic uncertainty and high oil prices shadowing stocks. No doubt there will be many eyeballs glued to the share market today trying to fathom investment strategies, given the collective sentiments that suggest we have worse to come. With interest rates at twelve year highs, the records that our markets keep identifying are records for all the wrong reasons which today resonate throughout the financial markets. Consumers are feeling the brunt of record high costs of fuel, food and rents which begs the (unanswered) question, how much ‘slow’ do we need before we start to grow again? Continue reading »

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Telling moments from the head teller at our central bank

Based on revelations from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) when it released the board meeting minutes from its April 1 gathering, unlike other commentators, I remain somewhat mystified, concerned and confused with its rationale. For some strange reason the RBA is of the opinion that its previously noted expectations with regard to inflation are being scaled down from its initial concerns back in February. Next Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index for the March quarter 2008 will be released and rest assured it will be well north of 4 per cent. The simple facts are that the present inflation rates are the fastest growing since 1991. Continue reading »

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THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY NEEDS “GIDDY –UP”. NOT GOING, GOING & GONE!

Just what part are Australian tax payers missing, when the monthly Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reports are met with Federal government approval . Inflation continues to accelerate yet the inflation drivers remain for the better part, on ignore. Interest rates remained at 7.25% when the RBA met this week and neither it or the Federal government offered an economic solution that will intelligently address the inflation accelerants, other than a moronic suggestion, that over time it (inflation) will address itself. The inflation rate is headed to 5 per cent (as we will identify). Continue reading »

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WHAT GOES UP – DOES NOT ALWAYS GO DOWN AS SOME WOULD LIKE TO BELIEVE!

I’m sure that I’m not the only person confused with the economic decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to apply yet another rate increase this week. Twelve consecutive rate rises and three in the last six months – levelled at controlling inflation. RBA had concerns and believed that a 50 basis point increase in February would be severe, so it opted for a 25 basis point increase which it then mirrored in March (work that logic out). Yesterday, National Australia Bank (NAB) raised its variable home loan rate by 0.29 per cent (RBA on Tuesday applied a 0.25 per cent increase to 7.25 per cent) its home loan rate is now 9.27 per cent effective today. NAB executive director and CEO, Ahmed Fahour said “Escalating wholesale funding costs have been impacting NAB since August 2007. During February this year, the cost of both short and long term wholesale funding rose to their highest levels in a decade.” Makes one – ponder why, the RBA keep focusing on inflation. Mr Fahour went on to say “Unfortunately this means the increase in the RBA’s cash rate by 0.25 per cent does not reflect the true cost of funding a home loan. Even with the additional 0.04 per cent change on variable rate products, NAB is continuing to absorb a significant portion of the increased wholesale funding costs.” Continue reading »

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PUTTING AN END TO THE ‘BIG SPEND’!

While it may sound easy to accomplish, this task is of gargantuan proportions that will cause havoc with many families who will have no alternative but to sell-up. The dilemma is, that property prices in heavily mortgaged markets are in rapid decline. On the other side of the property spectrum, those residing in the wealthy socio – economic markets are still bathing in ongoing capital growth markets where interest rates have little to no effect. These markets remain robust as a direct result of strong business performances which resonate in our property market. Continue reading »

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