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Albeit a brief visit (28 hours), it is not that often that the world’s most powerful identity lands on our shores where by the sounds of things Australia is set to become the fifty third State of America. With America’s future lies with Asia – Pacific region, Obama says where in an historic address to the Australian Parliament “As President, I have therefore made a deliberate and strategic decision – as a Pacific nation, the United States will play a larger role and long – term role in shaping this region and its future – by upholding core principles and in close partnership with our allies and friends”. He went on to say the region was crucial to US interests, as the world’s fastest growing region – Obama takes aim at China in new Asian world order.

For those who missed the live speech here is the text of Obama’s speech to Parliament I watched it live and I must admit that it was most impressive as he provided an insightful vision as to what lies ahead. Although Australia’s most irrelevant political party didn’t agree as Greens fury at US build – up which should not come as a great surprise. They should stick to just planting trees.

It has not been a great week for the Greens with Julia Gillard’s backflip on uranium exports to India announcement. Although it will be interesting to watch if this fractures the Greens/ALP relationship?

BUY PRINT

Storm clouds over Europe, but sun is shining elsewhere “The media’s great strength is the speed with which they can bring us myriad details about the latest happening in Greece, Italy or anywhere else. Unfortunately, their great weakness is their inability to digest all that information and summarise what it means. The closest they go is in relaying the opinions of 101 supposed experts from Greece, Britain, America or anywhere else. Listen to more than one or two and you’re soon none the wiser.”  The long and the short of this is that consumer sentiments in Australia have adopted a short trem positioning and not a long term outlook.

Euro crash will scatter debris far and wide – we need to watch the road which prompted “The World’s Greatest Treasurer” to declare ‘Get your act together’, Swan tells Europe. When it became reality that Eurozone third quarter GDP suggests bloc is sliding into recession. Gross domestic product in the 17 – nation eurozone grew 0.6 per cent at an annualised rate during the third quarter, according to figures from the European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat. The weakest expansion since the region exited recession more than two years ago and well below growth rates registered in the US and Japan. The eurozone was spared no favours when the Greek economy fell 5.2 per cent in the third quarter.

The problem is quite simple: French banks are among the largest holders of Italian debt.

On the home front consumer confidence revives after rate cut which would explain the recent spring surge blooms as home buyers dive in. So it is not new money in our property markets when a press release from the Mortgage & Finance Association of Australia announced “first home buyers” have little confidence in the Australian economy, as they baulk at property purchases and hoard their cash.”

Reasons for delaying their entry into the housing market were:

• 72.1 per cent said they were worried about the level of debt home ownership would require
• 44 Per cent said they were delaying purchasing a first home due to economic conditions
• 20.5 per cent of first home buyers felt that property prices are too high

So the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps mum on future rate moves although I believe the RBA will cut the cash rate again next month so that they can separate Australia from the Euro crisis and set a solid consumer platform going into 2012. I’m not that concerned by all the rhetoric emanating from our central bank when RBA takes negative line on multiple rate cuts and RBA board split on rate cut. The reality is that the RBA sees housing market as subdued not should we dismiss Economists and traders fighting a false forecasting war: Christopher Joye.

Was it the ‘Obama Factor’ that triggered the greatest trade volumes seen in 2011 this week for our demographic markets? There is not a single market in the world economy that does not fall under the economic equation of Demand V Supply.

So closely examine these figures we extrapolate each week for our readership.

Source: Domain Property Monitors

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 168
• Number of houses on the market this week – 136
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 138
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 118

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 21
• Number of houses on the market this week – 16
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 44
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 34

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 21
• Number of houses on the market this week – 15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 136
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 101

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate – Click Here

For this week’s open for inspections – Click Here

This is anecdotal evidence that all of our property markets are engaging again and these statistics which are the most conclusive in 2011, prove that our property markets have turned. It will be fascinating to see next week’s results to see if this trending continues – I believe it will. What we are identifying is that our expats are now returning it ain’t working: Aussies abandon the ailing UK job market.

So Julia Gillard closing gap on Abbott: poll although her days are numbered given Bill Shorten firms as PM’s successor. Although the greatest problem they face is over those one – armed bandits ALP carries pokie burden – which won’t go away anytime soon. On a funnier side SLASH AND BURN: Swan plans to cut billions in spending so I assume he is referring to focus groups where the Gillard government spent $33 million last year on market research. They should be reading newspapers although that premise is quickly dismissed given Gillard looking to blame media: Hartigan.

Whilst on the media I have long argued here that newspapers can’t charge readers for online content so I was not surprised to read in Business Spectator when Alan Kohler wrote Will Fairfax break the paywall. As you would be aware you have to register to now read (The Australian) online as Rupert Murdoch proposes that Australian’s should pay a subscription to read his papers online. Online is based on the premise of eyeballs and third party advertising where the more eyeballs the more revenue. The Australian behind a paywall, and so far the three month trial has seen its page impressions decline by 25 per cent – far less than might have been expected. Actually, and certainly less than its traffic will decline once it starts charging.”

No wonder Fairfax Media is reconsidering its online position. The problem for News Ltd and Fairfax Media is that they are still “newspaper thinkers” who believe (incorrectly) that you can still double – dip with advertisers and the readership.

Goes to show you can never assume.

Cheers ^__^

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18.11.11Robert Simeon8 Comments »

Consumer spending grew 0.6 per cent in the March quarter and the lucky country avoided technical recession. Depending on your political flavour, there was lots of political back slapping and back stabbing but more importantly, credit resonated through markets. The ASX 200 soared through 4,000 identifying five consecutive trading days above $5 billion (seven month high) – it was good news week for financial and property markets.

Fort Crumble (NSW government) had another negative quarter (0.2 per cent) and is technically in recession although ‘Premier Please’ remains in denial because the figure excluded exports. I am now focussing on ways to export a politician!

In business, you have to reach your Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s) or it’s simply time to go. Surely the same ethos must now apply to elected politicians. There is no better example than what is happening at Fort Crumble, as the Sydney Morning Herald reported earlier week – “NSW burden drags nation deeper into strife. Business is calling for radical intervention to stop the former premier state’s decline, reports Jessica Irvine, Economics Editor.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

The decade-long slide by NSW into economic oblivion, if not arrested, may stymie the Rudd Government’s attempts to kick start the national economy out of recession.

The once “premier state” has been going backwards, compared to other states since the Sydney Olympics, on key indicators of economic health including growth, business investment, jobs, home building, wages a Herald analysis of official figures has found.” I have put the main points raised in the article in point form.

• NSW now contributes less than 32 per cent of the country’s economic production, down from 34.5 per cent just after the Games. An exodus of people interstate has also led NSW’s population share to shrink by 1 percentage point to 32.5 per cent.
• Even more remarkable has been the slump in NSW’s share of new business investment and new home building activity. Of every dollar businesses spend investing in new equipment and buildings, NSW accounts for just 23 cents, down from 35 cents in late 2000.
• And despite being home to one-third of Australia’s population, only 15 per cent of all new home-building takes place in NSW. The state approved just 1558 new homes in March, behind Victoria (4023) and Queensland (2052).
• NSW’s jobless rate remains consistently one of the highest in the country and the traditional wage premium NSW workers enjoyed over other states has all but evaporated. In late 2005 NSW employees earned $3500 more a year than the national average. Now it is just $500.
• Of $8.5 billion in transport spending announced in the federal budget on May 12, Sydney received just $91 million for a study on the West Metro, compared to $3.2 billion for a Melbourne rail project”.

Ouch! Brilliant investigative reporting. Now imagine if employment contracts were based on KPI’s. The vast majority of those in NSW government would be unemployed. Simply put: no longer can they remain a protected species especially when the state’s Budget deficit is announced on June 16. Fort Crumble is suggesting $1 – $2 billion some economists are already suggesting a massive $6-$8 billion deficit.

Should this be the case, NSW has then moved from critical to life–support where again, the once “premier state” is trading insolvent with a business plan outlined on the back of a postage stamp.

With Fort Crumble in a “state of shock” following Ruddy Fantastic’s Nation Building snub – it was somewhat ironic that it leaked (prior to Budget night) its approval of major road projects totalling $4.4 billion. For obvious reasons the approvals only apply to Labor seats because, after all, it is all about re-election.

Key Performance Indicators in NSW have been replaced by Key Political Intervention where a politician earns more in government than in opposition. Cash for votes are alive and well in NSW politics – although around the corner where Struggle Street meets at the intersection of Rage Road, our esteemed Premier, ‘Nathan Please’ has a problem with his unions. A bummer for Treasury as the unions flatly rejected a suggested freeze of the state’s public sector wages – teachers, nurses and police – better known as a Key People Indicator.

The same can’t be said for Ruddy Fantastic’s first home buyers grant. High beaming himself in parliament this week, he announced that a record 18,736 punters took up Labor’s offer in April. In past editions I have previously likened this grant to throwing lollies onto a highway – there will be casualties. For example: back in economic growth times, south-west Sydney identified home price collapses of around forty per cent – yet in recession (until this week) these very same areas are now in (Chk Chk) boom mode.

Ruddy Fantastic advised parliament this week that 18,736 excited homeowners took up Labor’s cash for letterbox incentive in April. This is much like the Federal budget’s spend plan – spend now and pay later. After all it’s only money and the artificial insemination of property markets has subprime written all over it. Just that this time around, we have the Australian version.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate at 3.00 per cent this week where we remain at 1969 equivalents. Forget Struggle Street and Rage Road, when rates do go up (and in all probability this will happen around July/August next year). For many inductees into the property market, this will result in Road Kill (depending on respective loan agreements) as our economy moves from deflation to inflation mode.

What inflated this week were our subscriber sales which jumped last week from$848,794,010 to $859,094,019. In total, we exchanged $ 13,905,000 worth of properties. As I suggested over a month ago, the market has bottomed and purchasers and vendors are now engaging (we don’t make these figures up – they actually happen). The big online businesses are leading the way!

Another great (free) daily read launched on the Internet this week www.thepunch.com.au from the News Ltd online stable. This week’s YouTube is Rove’s explanation on how Australia avoided recession (turn your speakers up) – very funny.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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5.06.09Robert Simeon4 Comments »

Already media outlet www.crikey.com.au is referring to newspaper reporting as “recession p-rn” (add an o in the missing space) as it is everywhere. It appears that every “recession p-rn” article appearing on Fairfax Media, News Ltd papers and websites, has resulted in prospective sellers cancelling their 2009 print marketing campaigns and opting for online marketing (the cheaper alternative).

Fairfax Media and News Ltd real estate print revenues will be smashed in 2009 when these (previously) “rivers of gold” will become dry creek beds. Smarter print initiatives need to evolve which, with respect, should have already been released for the 2009 real estate markets. This simply explains why vendors are presently reluctant to engage in costly campaigns – preferring to opt for the high tech online agencies. Our point of difference in this market is our online investment in technology.

Here are the exclusive facts based on sales evidence provided by Australian Property Monitors. The Mosman house market consisting of 4,900 houses would, in strong markets, trade at ten per cent of volume. 2008 was the worst ever recorded year in terms of Mosman house sales where just 219 sales were recorded as compared to 384 in 2007.

Mosman House Sales In 2008

Total sales – 219

Total Value Sold – $580,558,112.00

Private Treaty – 156

Auction – 63

Median Price – $2,376,000

Average Price – $2,870,373

Mosman House Sales in 2007

Total sales – 384

Total Value Sold – $1,153,329,720

Private Treaty – 270

Auction – 114

Median Price – $2,360,000

Average Price – $3,003,462

Mosman, for quite some time, has identified itself as a difficult auction market as anecdotal sales evidence proves.

If you look at the monthly Mosman house sales evidence, the story unfolds in 2008.

January 2008 – 8 home sales

February 2008 – 24 house sales

March 2008 – 24 house sales

April 2008 – 25 house sales

May 2008 – 30 house sales

June 2008 – 20 house sales

July 2008 – 17 house sales

August 2008 – 22 house sales

September 2008 – 13 house sales

October 2008 – 14 house sales

November 2008 – 12 house sales

December 2008 – 9 House sales

These figures will increase somewhat however it is clear that sales volume for Mosman houses in 2009 is obviously well down on previous years. The sales volume decrease in recorded Mosman house sales is 43 per cent down from 2007 to 2008 and 55 per cent down from recorded sales in 2006 compared to 2008. The percentage decreases over the same periods for average and median prices are nowhere as severe. What is blatantly obvious is the fact that Mosman is very much a private treaty suburb and not a public auction suburb which was further evidenced late last year when some clearance rates fell below ten per cent.

Again we are not valuing any mortgagee in possession properties for banking institutions so the ongoing rumours that half the suburb is on the market, is clearly incorrect. Yes – values are down by approximately ten to fifteen per cent however confidence levels are down by over 50 per cent which is an exact reflection of the market.

Another first in 2009 will in all probability see the tightest property volumes offered to the market place in years. What many fail to understand is that house volumes keep reducing not increasing and we know what that does to values. The tug – a – house battle in 2009 will be just as intriguing as probably every other thing that we will observe in the coming year.

We are now into our ninth year of Virtual Realty News and this year will be compelling. Welcome back and cheers! Next week we will look at how Mosman apartments performed. ^__^

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23.01.09Robert Simeon5 Comments »