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Prime Minister Julia Gillard keeps reminding Australians that our economy is the envy of the world – which in all probability explains why Labor’s popularity drops to a record low. Newspoll reported this week that Labor’s primary vote had dropped from thirty per cent to twenty seven per cent (a survey compiled prior to the carbon tax release announcement). If the next Newspoll (due in two week’s time) identifies a further decline, it will be all over for the ‘red rover’.

Economically, Australians are concerned about just the one thing – household debt. A carbon tax for the price of a broken promise it is now boom or bust for ALP’s ideology. Australia is not buying the tax for clean air argument, as it has been acknowledged that Australia’s carbon tax will have next to no effect .Julia Gillard’s carbon price promise when she advised Australia “I rule out a carbon tax” has the prime minister struggling to acknowledge why a promise is not a promise. Of course, if it was not a tax, the prime minister would find Australian sentiment much more forgiving – the old Aussie vernacular liar, liar pants (hair) on fire has resonated throughout the entire debate. Rate rises, global uncertainty, carbon push consumer sentiment to two – year low so what is the common denominator? That would be carbon chaos in Canberra!

Then we have the elephant in the room, otherwise known as the budget deficit which continues to blow out – hence carbon tax on surplus ‘not dramatically significant’. Another broken promise given Treasurer Wayne Swan now admits that the climate change package will decrease the projected budget surplus despite his promise that the package would be revenue neutral. No doubt the Treasurer would have been pleased to see that the Building the Education Revolution waste blows out to $1.1bn which is down from the Pink Batts fiasco which lost $2.45bn. That’s $3.55bn lost due to mismanagement, and to be repaid by taxpayers.

BUY PRINT

Julia Gillard needs a new policy distraction given sixty per cent of Australians don’t want a carbon tax.  Fort Fumble has positioned itself between a rock and a very hard place. Having just back flipped on waiting hours at hospitals, the plan for a federal takeover became so infected that Nicola Roxon gives in to states on health. Then you have stupidity and cattle export revolt cloud Julia Gillard’s clear air where the public consensus is that plenty of pain for very little gain in cattle export fight. The problem with Fort Fumble is that there are too many chiefs and not enough Indians. Australians are smart enough to see that reckless decisions are frustrating and damaging to consumer confidence – Gillard rejects early election call. Prime Ministers are very much like rugby league coaches.  If the team’s not winning, the coach gets the sack – Gillard determined to avoid the axe.

The Australian – Order Bill Leak’s Print

Rent growth slowing in capital cities comes as little surprise.   With households totally focussed on debt, rental debt is no exception. The supply of housing in Australia today, remains a complete debacle housing supply – Melbourne good news, Sydney bad news. Only 141,618 new dwellings were built in NSW between 2006 and 2010 although the number of households increased by 159,388. What part of this do you think that our governments don’t understand? In 2010 NSW built just 27,655 new dwellings where Victoria built a record 50,700 dwellings (almost twice that of NSW). An amazing statistic when, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, NSW has a population of 7,272,200 and Victoria 5,585,600. Little wonder that NSW house prices falls smallest: survey and a carbon tax raises the cost of construction of a new home by approximately five to ten per cent! Julia, tell us we’re dreaming – a carbon tax on coal hits NSW coffers hard.

All quiet on the eastern front – You can say that again. Mosman is an interesting study, when in winter, the market all but closes down.  Mosman residents  prefer to travel – hence this week’s amazing ‘for sale’ statistics. Who would have believed there would be just eighty houses for sale Domain Property Data. I have never before seen a tighter Mosman market.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 83
• Number of houses on the market this week – 80
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 99
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 92

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 16
• Number of houses on the market this week –  16
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 34
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 31

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 7
• Number of houses on the market this week – 7
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 62
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 65

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

It’s just getting too cold for me, so I am taking a break for a few weeks. Andrew, Steve and Rich will be providing their collective pearls of property wisdom.

On that note, I would like to thank our first female prime minister for announcing her carbon tax during the school holidays, when so many Australians are away. I do ask the Labor caucus to delay the announcement of Australia’s next prime minister, until I return to Virtual Realty News.

Cheers ^__^

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15.07.11Robert Simeon3 Comments »

My curiosity was stirred last week by M Jackson, who said that, (subject to approval) the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) may allow you to have a punt on our property markets. Described as a world first, ASX punters can take out a derivative contract based on Rismark/RP Data market indices which are in turn quoted daily to the share market. I did laugh when I read ‘daily’ – try months after the event if real estate agents decide to block data sales access.

Back to M Jackson’s comment on last week’s blog – “Contrary to popular myth, the water in Australian plugholes goes down the same way as everywhere else. So, too, the housing market. Figures from the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday showed that prices in eight capital cities were down by a record 2.2 per cent between December and March. The fourth quarterly fall in a row brought the year – on – year rate of decline to almost 7 per cent.”

Rismark/RP Data reported national dwelling values increased by 1.52 per cent for March 2009. Then the ABS reports a 2.2 per cent decline. Somebody got it wrong – but hey, take a punt?

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Back to M Jackson’s comment – “Gross rentals yields of about 3 per cent, meanwhile, are near all – time lows; if houses were stocks, they’d be trading on wobbly price/earnings multiples of more than 30 times. Unemployment data, to be released on Thursday, may show a rise to almost 6 per cent, the highest level in six years. Job ads fell again in April. Mortgage flows are sputtering. The props are falling away. Currently the SFE is constructing a tradeable index on Australian housing, which should be completed by and ready by August 2009. I can’t wait to go short. If there was one specific to the Lower North Shore in Sydney. I would have double the size positions.”

I thank M Jackson for his input and look forward to reading more responses to our blogs.

The Global Financial Crisis was brought about by global banking institutions investing in (probable and possible) markets based on high debt ratios – otherwise known as gambling. The process for aggregating property data has always been flawed – highlighted by the simple fact that the ABS and Rismark/RP Data constantly report conflicting property data positions. Definitely not an each – way bet!

Consider the property market reality, if ASIC approves the trade derivative contracts and the Australian real estate agencies automatically cease providing all sales data to all the aggregators? It would then be one, two, three, four, five and six months until such data became available. Just who would punt on such irregularities? The data aggregators don’t act in harmony with real estate agencies in Australia where there is not the slightest possibility of any change – anytime soon. I would predict (and support) a total real estate data black–out.

After all, we act for our vendors (first and foremost) and are under absolutely no obligation to report sales data that aggregator’s then on-sell to institutions. One only has to look at the banning of shorting banking stocks to observe that this is conducive to assisting economic growth in a recession. The real estate industry is the largest employer in Australia where our economy is only in a sound position because our banking system is world’s best practise and world’s best profits too.

Simply put: real estate agencies would cease reporting sales and rental data and agents would then lengthen the odds quite considerably. If such a market was created where (just say) you could bet on the Mosman market – I would hope that collectively, Mosman agencies would turn such a proposal into a blank canvas with data support.

From “bricks and mortar” to “punt and hunt” derivative markets! The only people that I can see making money from these proposed markets are actually the real estate agents. Is this Australia’s financial version of subprime – a buy position without actually owning a house? Short on being exact and very long on accuracy.

I thought Malcolm Turnbull’s Budget response to be lame (to say the least). However, with the possibility of a double dissolution around the corner, it makes sense to keep ones “powder dry”. As one subscriber said this week, “depending upon the government for your future financial security, is like hiring an accountant who is a compulsive gambler!”

Ruddy Fantastic and Wayne Swans’ missing word disorder’ may have been cured this week when it was revealed on www.smh.com.au “It’s been suggested that Kevin Rudd would not utter the phrase “$300 billion” for fears his words will be used in coalition advertisements during the next election campaign.” So much for “sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me.” Then “Mr Rudd said Australia’s debt would peak at “around 200, or gross debt at about 300” in 2013 – 14. Now journalists are on to this political spin game and will play this to their hearts’ content. Very petty, although Australia’s deficit needs much more than petty cash as we will continually be reminded for many years to come.

Australia’s housing prices are at their most affordable level in seven years and in the March quarter the Housing Industry Association – Commonwealth Bank First Home Buyer Affordability Index recorded a 14.6 per cent increase. The average home loan fell by 11 per cent from $2056 a month to $1831 last year.

Despite confidence levels still being down, car sales in April were up on the March figures. Just as interesting is that in Mosman on www.domain.com.au there are only 118 houses/semis (I removed double entries, apartments, and out of area listings from the listed 135) available for sale which is an all time low in available stock levels. This will only get tighter over winter given that purchasers are now engaging with vendors.

This week’s video is a brilliant story about the annual Balmoral Burn Race Day which happens next Sunday on May 31. The Balmoral Burn Sponsors’ Dinner takes place on Friday May 29, 2009 so watch the video for more details. Keeping in the theme, this week’s aerial photograph by Tim Mooney Photography, highlights the best beach on our planet and in the background Awaba Street – the Balmoral Burn tread mill. Congratulations to Phil and Julie Kearns who started this brilliant fundraising event back in 2001. Given that I have won the race three times now, I am no longer eligible to compete.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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22.05.09Robert Simeon8 Comments »

All in all, another prosperous property year with the market finishing in a holding pattern, and ever so slowly coming to a grinding halt. Whilst the market did trade well, I don’t believe that it matched the heights of 2001, certainly not at the top end anyway, although for the very first time the property market recorded three $20 million plus sales, which is a first. ‘Altona’, was numero uno with $28 million, ‘Boomerang’ next $20.70 then ‘Finesterre’ at $20 million, smashed the Northern Beaches’ records. The highest sale in Mosman was a Hopetoun Avenue waterfront, which sold for $9.4 million, so the all time record of $15.5 million still remains in our keeping.

In 2002, our market peaked in March/April so congratulations to those who picked that market. For the second year in succession our spring/summer market was dominated by terrorism. Emotionally these events place enormous strains on the property market. On top of that, certain sections of the media have blown the market out of all proportion, even to the extent where the reputable journalists are left mystified at some of the commentary that we read during the course of the year. In nearly every instance the information reported was inaccurate (to be polite), and nothing more than an unprovoked beat-up.

The business sector slowed down significantly enough to see many of the players withdraw from the market during the course of the year. Together with two interest rate hikes, this was enough to remove the zip from our market. Not to mention the agents who completely lost the plot, and applied values that the market simply could not sustain. The real estate industry is changing, and in some instances I still remain unsure if it is for the better. We are seeing that the younger generation is no longer interested in a real estate career, and this can probably be attributed to property values today being so high. Vendors are simply not prepared to place the responsibility of their prized asset in the hands of a rising new star. This is evident across the market.

It could also be said that the major franchisors have lost touch with the market. I would argue that many would have difficulty running a tap! This is clearly evident in their ignorance of the Internet. I remain amazed at the number of prospective purchasers who are scathing about their sites. The same could be said for some of the real estate portals, that still believe site navigation to be a nautical theme, which probably explains why most still fail to post a profit. Having said that, we will launch our new Internet site for our next edition in January, and I love the new look!! We have also spent the last six months developing our own software programmes which when launched, will keep www.rwm.com.au at the forefront of our industry.

One thing that the Internet does require once you become a player, is a willingness to invest plenty of money in the overall development. I will say that once you work it out the benefits far out weigh the negatives. The secret is simply just not to give up!!

Well that is us for now. Thanks everyone for your interest during the course of the year. Our next edition will be in the new format on January 24 2003. Have a very merry Christmas and a safe and healthy New Year. I am off to read a book on Ngapali Beach. Ho Ho Ho… cheers and clink ^__^

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18.12.02Robert SimeonNo Comments »

Forget the clearance rates, it is now a clearance sale with the Mosman market embroiled in a ‘dash for cash’ as vendors meet the market. After more twists than a whodunit, once again the intrigue of this unique market is forging ahead and post-auction sales are running faster than an English cricket selector. Such is the renewed confidence, previously failed auction properties now have plural purchasers and in many instances it is ‘advantage vendor!!’

With the Mosman market now participating in the greatest stockpile of property that we have ever seen, it was only a matter of time before something had to give way, and thankfully sanity is prevailing. Whilst the market here has been documented as having burst, the Eastern Suburb’s market is performing exceptionally well, so it was only a matter of time till the tide turned. Momentarily, it was a ‘back to basics’ approach and prices now appear to be self-correcting at approximately five to ten per cent from previous price expectations. This figure differs significantly depending on which agent a vendor engaged to conduct the marketing campaign!!

Opinions of value vary quite dramatically from agency to agency, however with some agents suffering from post auction paranoia, their previous exuberance about price expectations is now as consistent as a meteorology forecast. The current market is acknowledging that vendors now don’t have the luxury of safety in purchaser numbers. In most instances, a property may only have one to three interested buyers, and now the experienced agents are coming to the fore.

In order for one to really understand the direction in which the market is going, and how it is performing, is actually quite easy. All you have to do is log onto the agent’s websites and look at the available property listings. If the available property listings are reducing in number then you will see who is actually getting it right, as against those who rely solely on the ‘hope factor’. We are experiencing fantastic Internet interaction at the moment and it is actually the ex-pats who are noticing a reduction in our property numbers. This is prompting quite a few e-mails with a “please explain what happened to this property”.

Quite a few ex-pats have registered for our ‘Ex-pat Christmas House Hunt’ and quite a number of them have already landed on our shores, with the hunt on in earnest to secure a home. We expect over the next few weeks to see our ex-pat sales increase by a staggering ten per cent, so it is great to see the business dynamics working. Take a look at our property menu, to see the current status of all our properties.

Nothing beats a run of property adrenaline in the veins, and it is great to see the Mosman market mounting a successful fight back given the current economic/social circumstances. In years gone by we have witnessed the market cease trading at the end of November, this year I predict it will trade up to December 23. The following properties have been sold this week, 56 Prince Street, Mosman, 37 Wyong Road, Mosman, 19/2 Clifford Street, Mosman, 19 Weemala Road, Northbridge and 9/15 Hampden Avenue, Cremone.

If the property bubble has well and truly burst and the Mosman market is in dire straits, it is quite amazing that within the space of 10 days we have exchanged $19,500,000 in property. By the time you receive your next edition, we envisage that this figure will be just over $30,000,000. I just love it when a plan comes together!!

Cheers and clink ^__^

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30.11.02Robert SimeonNo Comments »

With some believing that the property market is showing signs of fatigue, such propaganda I believe, is unlikely to succeed… Welcome back to another edition of the vortex of intrigue!!! The ‘Mosman market’ is set to prove my theory correct with some exciting new properties appearing in The Mosman Daily this week. There should be lots of activity at the open for inspections this coming weekend. In order for the market to ‘fatigue’, it has to see a rapid decline at the top-end, but at the moment, the top-end is playing a brand new game that we have not seen before and it is far from fatigued.

Never short of an opinion (or word for that matter!) here is my prediction… As each year goes by you will see fewer homes in Balmoral. The ‘big guns’ will start acquiring adjoining properties to create grand estates. This is already happening around the place and the idea has many appealing attributes and the new buyers in the ‘up to $10 million’ bracket are busily exhausting this option. We are also seeing many buying the home in a company name so that they can then claim the Land Tax as a deduction. Also, the Capital Gains Tax has been watered down and is not as severe as in years gone by. Others are looking at placing the principal place of residence in their wife’s name, and then placing their own name on the adjoining property. It is early days for this one and no doubt the Australian Taxation Office will contest that, as it could be difficult to prove that you live on a tennis court, or could it?

Whatever the scenario, the previous mind-set about property is now in a stage of metamorphosis. It is now much more apparent that the big guns in town are much more focused on dirt as against the previous ethos of ‘bricks and mortar’. The acquisition costs are high and so is the return on investment. It would be hard to argue that the number one suburb in Australia is not in safe hands when you look at the calibre of purchaser(s). It is quite intriguing how the market players are reading the market, and this new game could very well be seen as the modern day ‘Monopoly’, with Mosman being their “Mayfair”. This will also happen in less expensive areas of Mosman. Given the frustration say at $4 million, it makes sense to acquire two properties at $2 million each. I am sure that I have you scratching your head, just remember where you read it first!

One of the most rewarding aspects of our industry is watching the emergence of the new stars in our industry, and I believe we have unearthed a super star, our very own Marize Kouroupis. Marize has, or is in the process of completing her most successful quarter ever in real estate… Posting an amazing twelve sales so far, the largest sale being a Moruben Road penthouse for $1.85 million! Whilst specializing in the sale of apartments, Marize has successfully left all competitors in her wake. With a 100% clearance rate under the hammer, it comes as little surprise that the majority of phone calls in our office are for her.

One thing that our market deserves is to be treated with respect. It out-performs every market in Australia, and yes, it has serious attitude, as do those who drive it. It is all right to predict ‘doom and gloom’, the interesting point being that those screaming the loudest are the ones that missed the market. This market is not about ‘swings and roundabouts’, the players in this market have one thing in common – they’re fearless! Cheers, clink and a (^__^)

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15.06.02Robert SimeonNo Comments »