So let’s clarify a few points from an insider’s perspective. Property data is in all probability, ages away from being conclusive (after the result) and why, today does it still remains a dog’s breakfast?

Collectively none of these data collection institutions get it – they spread it and sell misinformation that is simply incomplete and many months away from accuracy.

The dilemma is quite simple. The property aggregators sell the information gathered from the agent, then continue to charge agencies to access its data … which is actually, the intellectual property of the agent. Until they get it right there is a very strong argument as to why agents should cease providing such data.

There are no better examples of such anomalies, when this week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced that house prices fell by minus 2.2 per cent in the March quarter 2009. Australian Property Monitors (Domain Property Data) reported that its research identified that house prices increased by 0.1 per cent in the March quarter 2009. Australian Property Monitors works from exchanged property information and it is no secret that in the current market condition, many vendors instruct agents that the sale price is confidential and not for publication.

Therefore, it can take months (depending on settlement terms) to collect an exacting position which I will identify with the data I have collected. For the record, RP Data – Rismark reported that house prices were up 0.1 per cent in the March quarter 2009. I remain unaware that we supply any data to RP Data – Rismark. I would also add that RWM receives no payment for supplying any property data.

Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2007 to 30 April 2007

• Total sales – 139
• Total value – $350,165,720
• Median price – $2,200,000
• Average price – $2,632,824
• Highest price – $10,200,000

Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2008 to 30 April 2008

• Total sales – 119
• Total value – $309,519,612
• Median price – $2,700,000
• Average price – $2,919,000
• Highest price – $8,500,000

Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2009 to 30 April 2009

• Total sales – 62
• Total value – $86,621,000
• Median price – $1,525,000
• Average price – $2,221,051
• Highest Price – $8,500,000

Source: Australian Property Monitors (Domain Property Data) owned by Fairfax Media

I would suggest that property voyeurs are much more interested in niche markets , for example, Mosman, as against “stew” markets where all the data ingredients are fed into the one murky pot.

As you would have noticed the Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2009 to 30 April 2009 look a tad sick when compared to 2008 and 2007. So when I add our confidential house sales to the data the Total Sales move up from 62 to 71, Total Value from $86,621,000 up to $126,026.000. For the record, RWM has sold the greatest volume in terms of number of sales and total value over this period. The Highest Price also changes where the first number starts with a one (in excess of $10,000,000). This additional $39,405,000 in house sales makes a noticeable change to the current figures. It’s just that now you are the first to know and the aggregators are left shaking their respective heads. This is further complicated by the fact that the vast majority of sales data provided today leaves out the sale price.

I had trouble containing my excitement this week when an old favourite, Bobby Dazzler Carr, made an unexpected appearance, spruiking further debate about the condition of his once beloved Fort Crumble. Obviously, his work time sheets must now be down after he moved from Fort Crumble over to the Millionaires Factory.

The audacity of the argument that the Dazzler was the architect (or should that be builder) whilst presiding over the State of Decay. Whilst stopping short of revealing just exactly where all those “rivers of gold”, disappeared to, on the back of the financial floods from GST, stamp duty and poker machines taxes proved to be of little consequence. It was the system, not, the government the Dazzler declared (to those that listened – not many I think).

Of course it was , how silly of us to assume anything else as Fort Crumble now stumbles down an estimated $2 billion budget deficit by June 30. Just as interesting, south of the border, Victoria’s Fort Fabulous is in surplus and offering tax cuts because Jeff Kennett did what our very own Dazzler couldn’t deliver, while Kennett financially and politically, renovated his Fortress.

Tensions between Ruddy Fantastic and the latest landlord over at Fort Crumble are not that good to say the least. Ruddy Fantastic is presently conducting a three day jobs summit in Western Sydney, and no members from Fort Crumble were asked to attend – another clue?

As quick as a flash, Fort Crumble jumped the land tax rate for property valued above $2.250 million from 1.6 per cent to 2 per cent. The irony is that these properties are already (after tax) in negative rental return, so the landlords then increase their negative gearing tax deductions, which Ruddy Fantastic then picks up.

Will negative gearing be abolished in next week’s Fudge-it?

One should also not forget, that Fort Crumble is reportedly crunching the numbers to introduce its latest annual land tax grab which apparently applies to every property owner within the State of Decay. If true, this would be political suicide – but then again, when you have a $2 billion budget deficit Fort Crumble is now in critical decision or, should that be condition? Ruddy Fantastic would be thankful he resides north of Fort Crumble’s moat.

Next week’s Federal “Fudge It “ will be riveting, more particularly if the budget deficit blows in (or should that read out) around $70 billion as quite a few are predicting.

With elected politicians in overdrive on their Twitter accounts all will be revealed on next week’s Tweet’s – if you are not on Twitter, you don’t know what you are missing out on. Have a look http://twitter.com/ Compelling viewing indeed – love Twitter.

We are very happy to announce that each week we will showcase one of Tim Mooney’s aerial masterpieces in Virtual Realty News. Tim has been a subscriber for many years. After prolonged negotiations – we now can bring you these amazing shots exclusively. Tim has actually spent more time in the air than Superman – if you click on this week’s aerial photograph you will be taken to Tim’s website.

Cheers and Tweet’s ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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8.05.09Robert Simeon7 Comments »

Compared to what I read last Friday night when I opened my daily www.crikey.com.au electronic magazine, the new economic war is all about fighting growing global unemployment. Spare a thought.

“WASHINGTON: A record 32.2 million people – one in every 10 Americans — received food stamps at the latest count, the government said on Thursday, and a reflection of the recession now in its 16th month. Food stamps, the major U.S. anti-hunger program, help poor people buy groceries. The average benefit was $112.82 per person in January. The January figure marks the third time in five months that enrolment set a record.” Source:Reuters

Two editions ago, I wrote “Living in the past and struggling with the future”. Our current recession is definitely not a case of better late than never – more a case of elected politicians who have stymied our very own economies through gross mismanagement of resources, education, health, transport, employment etc.”

Last Saturday’s edition of “The Weekend Australian Financial Review” a brilliant article was filed by Damon Kitney and Annabel Hepworth titled “The man who must stop the gravy train”.
Sydney’s northern suburbs boast some of the best beaches in the world. But try venturing across the Spit Bridge on a clear Sydney day at any time of year and half your day will probably be gone before you arrive on the sand.

It’s the same at morning and evening peak hour, when the narrow four-lane bridge separating Mosman and the northern beaches regularly resembles a parking lot.

Yet when one building industry executive inquired last year of a current minister in the Rees Labor government about the chronic lack of infrastructure through the region all the way up to Palm Beach, the reply was simple: F—k ‘em, they get nothing up there, just f—k ‘em.” the minister reportedly said. These are the bad old days of NSW Labor.”

Enter Ruddy Fantastic’s Infrastructure Australia and not before time.

So the formula applied to NSW tax payers (Stamp Duty, Land Tax, Payroll Tax and GST allocation) doesn’t discriminate yet the allocation of infrastructure spending does? This simply explains why infrastructure in NSW is in a ‘state’ of chaos.

I am a strong supporter of Ruddy Fantastic’s Infrastructure Australia and a fan of appointed chairman Rod Eddington. With state and territory governments now (collectively) in budget deficit, the power of infrastructure spending has been removed from the states and territories to the new (independent) governing power – Infrastructure Australia.

With the federal government also staring down at a budget deficit, it too will have to find a way to climb back into budget surplus. In my humble opinion, the Global Financial Crisis will prove that Australia no longer requires state and territory governments and a smart vehicle like Infrastructure Australia, spells the demise of middle government and not before time.

The corruption and waste of taxpayer revenues is well documented where more than a penny drops into the federal government’s coffers. Infrastructure Australia will in all probability be Rudd’s check (cheque) – mate for turning a budget deficit around. GST has failed miserably and taxes went up (as against the promise of coming down) – so time to bring infrastructure and taxation under the one umbrella. If it comes off (and only incompetence would stop this coming to fruition) – a brilliant political power play.

The federal government urgently needs to beef – up the Australian economy. Now the independently operated Infrastructure Australia will be adding the much needed gravy to the beef.

So let’s look at the upward movement of Mosman house prices from 2000 to 2008 a tale of position, power, glory and not necessarily a bad story. Today, you hold not fold – major banks don’t have non-performing loans on their respective radars as against previous banking mandates of past recessions. Simply put: markets recover and the Mosman property currency remains one of the strongest in Australia as I will identify in coming editions.

Here is a quick brain teaser. How many $10,000,000 plus Mosman house sales were recorded from 2000 to 2008? Have a think and I will get to the answer later on.

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES FROM 2000 – 2008 IN EXCESS OF $5,000,000

2000

• Total Sales – 4
• Total Value – $22,500,000
• Average Sale Price – $5,637,500
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,150,000
• Highest Sale Price – $5,900,000
  

  2001

• Total Sales – 12
• Total Value – $77,385,000
• Average Sale Price – $6,448,750
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,400,000
• Highest Sale Price – $15.500,000 (Mosman’s first $10,000,000+ sale)
  

  2002

• Total Sales – 9
• Total Value – $54,650,000
• Average Sale Price – $6,072,222
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,400,000
• Highest Sale Price – $9,400,000
  

  2003

• Total Sales – 19
• Total Value – $120,518,250
• Average Sale Price – $6,343,065
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
• Highest Sale Price – $11,000,000
  

  2004

• Total Sales – 16
• Total Value – $112,151,000
• Average Sale Price – $7,009,437
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
• Highest Sale Price – $11,000,000
  

  2005

• Total sales – 16
• Total Value – $137,720,000
• Average Sale Price – $8,607,500
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,100,000
• Highest Sale Price – $14,800,000
  

  2006

• Total Sales – 31
• Total Value – $231,285,000
• Average Sale Price – $7,460,806
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
• Highest Sale Price – $15,000,000
  

  2007

• Total Sales – 44
• Total Value – $349,650,000
• Average Sales Price – $7,946,590
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,050,000
• Highest Sale Price – $22,500,000 (new Mosman record)
  

  2008 – Enter Global Financial Crisis

• Total Sales – 25
• Total Value – $170,050,000
• Average Sale Price – $6,802,000
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
• Highest Sale Price – $14,700,000

  Source: Australian Property Monitors

  There have actually been 30 recorded sales in excess of $10,000,000 from 2000 – 2008. The agents I spoke with guessed between 12 and 18 sales – I will reveal more data in next week’s edition which will identify the excellent opportunities on offer in this price demographic.

  This week, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates by 0.25 per cent which now takes the cash rate (3.00 per cent) to the lowest level in forty nine years. An anti – climax because the major banks decided to either not pass on and/or minimise reductions to borrowers. With the benefit of hindsight the RBA would acknowledge that the latest rate reduction amounts to very little.

  Makes one wonder exactly who is running our country – the banks or the federal government?

  Obviously the bank deposit guarantee and the ban on short selling financials means next to nothing to them. How would they react if they were lifted? The federal government came to the party and now the banks must dance to that tune – or else.

  Better still why are the major banks charging credit cards at 600 per cent over the present cash rate of 3.00 per cent? Credit card debt should be a government priority in a recession that forces the banks to tow the line with credit card interest rates. Such a move would assist struggling families – and identify that they (banks) are no longer a law unto themselves. Messrs Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan and Lindsay Tanner, need to decisively act and Messrs Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey need to keep them honest.

  Our blog awaits your thoughtful insights.

  Have a fantastic and safe Easter.

  Cheers with chocolate on top ^__^

  For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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  9.04.09Robert Simeon3 Comments »

Already media outlet www.crikey.com.au is referring to newspaper reporting as “recession p-rn” (add an o in the missing space) as it is everywhere. It appears that every “recession p-rn” article appearing on Fairfax Media, News Ltd papers and websites, has resulted in prospective sellers cancelling their 2009 print marketing campaigns and opting for online marketing (the cheaper alternative).

Fairfax Media and News Ltd real estate print revenues will be smashed in 2009 when these (previously) “rivers of gold” will become dry creek beds. Smarter print initiatives need to evolve which, with respect, should have already been released for the 2009 real estate markets. This simply explains why vendors are presently reluctant to engage in costly campaigns – preferring to opt for the high tech online agencies. Our point of difference in this market is our online investment in technology.

Here are the exclusive facts based on sales evidence provided by Australian Property Monitors. The Mosman house market consisting of 4,900 houses would, in strong markets, trade at ten per cent of volume. 2008 was the worst ever recorded year in terms of Mosman house sales where just 219 sales were recorded as compared to 384 in 2007.

Mosman House Sales In 2008

Total sales – 219

Total Value Sold – $580,558,112.00

Private Treaty – 156

Auction – 63

Median Price – $2,376,000

Average Price – $2,870,373

Mosman House Sales in 2007

Total sales – 384

Total Value Sold – $1,153,329,720

Private Treaty – 270

Auction – 114

Median Price – $2,360,000

Average Price – $3,003,462

Mosman, for quite some time, has identified itself as a difficult auction market as anecdotal sales evidence proves.

If you look at the monthly Mosman house sales evidence, the story unfolds in 2008.

January 2008 – 8 home sales

February 2008 – 24 house sales

March 2008 – 24 house sales

April 2008 – 25 house sales

May 2008 – 30 house sales

June 2008 – 20 house sales

July 2008 – 17 house sales

August 2008 – 22 house sales

September 2008 – 13 house sales

October 2008 – 14 house sales

November 2008 – 12 house sales

December 2008 – 9 House sales

These figures will increase somewhat however it is clear that sales volume for Mosman houses in 2009 is obviously well down on previous years. The sales volume decrease in recorded Mosman house sales is 43 per cent down from 2007 to 2008 and 55 per cent down from recorded sales in 2006 compared to 2008. The percentage decreases over the same periods for average and median prices are nowhere as severe. What is blatantly obvious is the fact that Mosman is very much a private treaty suburb and not a public auction suburb which was further evidenced late last year when some clearance rates fell below ten per cent.

Again we are not valuing any mortgagee in possession properties for banking institutions so the ongoing rumours that half the suburb is on the market, is clearly incorrect. Yes – values are down by approximately ten to fifteen per cent however confidence levels are down by over 50 per cent which is an exact reflection of the market.

Another first in 2009 will in all probability see the tightest property volumes offered to the market place in years. What many fail to understand is that house volumes keep reducing not increasing and we know what that does to values. The tug – a – house battle in 2009 will be just as intriguing as probably every other thing that we will observe in the coming year.

We are now into our ninth year of Virtual Realty News and this year will be compelling. Welcome back and cheers! Next week we will look at how Mosman apartments performed. ^__^

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23.01.09Robert Simeon5 Comments »