.

Plenty of negative press about the property industry at the moment although we could well ask “what came first the chicken or the egg?” When consumer confidence levels are down, real estate markets have never boomed, although one market characteristic never changes, that being supply. Alas, that economic equation of demand V supply where plenty of demographic markets are experiencing an oversupply when demand is waning. To settle more than a few arguments in this week’s edition, we unveil exactly what is happening in the Mosman housing market where we identify plenty of mystique and mystery – with not that much misery. The figures don’t lie – so we went to Mosman’s most accurate market barometer Domain Property Data

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data published this week, revealed house prices fell 1.7 per cent across all capital cities except Melbourne where a 2.5 per cent drop was recorded for the March quarter 2011 – house prices dive in massive market fall. I actually love these commentaries given we are one of the few real estate businesses within Australia (with a very large voice) who can address these issues.

Steve Keen was at it again – Why Australia’s housing balloon is shot which focuses on the 1.7 per cent decline in property prices. Steve Keen predicted property prices would collapse in Australia by forty (40) per cent during the global financial crisis (GFC).  He lost that bet and he keeps (unsuccessfully) suggesting that property prices are in a bubble that will collapse. Just like me suggesting that Julia Gillard knows what she is doing as Prime Minister of Australia. Mortgage debt is the new “economic fascinator” although – RBA leaves rates on hold. The present cash rate is 4.75 per cent so there is plenty of scope to further reduce, depending on market movements.

BUY PRINT

What many forget is that in Australia, our property industry is defined by a thirty something analysis – one third rent, the second third own with a mortgage and the final third own without a mortgage. Here is the proof – it will be interesting to see how this pie graph changes after this year’s Census (I doubt by very much.)

Having been absorbed by the real estate gig for the last twenty five years I remain fascinated. Why? Purchasers go berserk during a property boom where they happily pay well above market value. Yet when the market slows and prices reduce they go into a self-induced hibernation/paralysis.  Even more intriguing is that today, online offers immediate property data anecdotal sales evidence. No better example, in How Twitter tweeted before Obama sang that Osama bin Laden had been found and executed.

So let me use the definitive sales evidence in Mosman to correctly explain what is actually happening where you work the numbers (not my words) pertaining to the mystique, mystery and whether or not there is any misery. Firstly, let’s look at the number of apartments and houses currently on the market compared to previous years.  Does this suggest that Mosman is experiencing a huge exodus of property owners?

Let’s analyse the Mosman house market March Quarter for 2010 as compared to the March Quarter for 2011- actually, we go back to 2005 to observe any patterns.

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2010

• Total Number Offered – 105
• Private Treaty – 75
• Public Auction – 16
• Total Sales – 91
• Total Value Sold – $230,950,500
• Average Price – $2,685,470

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2011

• Total Number Offered – 83
• Private Treaty – 40
• Public Auction – 19
• Total Sales – 59
• Total Value Sold – $55,030,000 (37 sales recorded a zero sale price)
• Average Price – $2,311,666

So to be fair let’s compare the March Quarters from 2005 to 2009.

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2009

• Total Number Offered – 64
• Private Treaty – 48
• Public Auction – 3
• Total Sales – 51 (less than 2011)
• Total Value Sold – 130,000,000
• Average Price – $2,653,061

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2008

• Total Number Offered – 81
• Private Treaty – 54
• Public Auction – 7
• Total Sales – 61 (2 more than 2011)
• Total Value Sold – $188,720,000
• Average Price – $3,093,770

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2007

• Total Number Offered – 108
• Private Treaty – 78
• Public Auction – 16
• Total Sales – 94
• Average Price – $2,617,332

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2006

• Total Number Offered – 99
• Private Treaty – 69
• Public Auction – 15
• Total Sales – 84
• Average Price $2,303,107

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2005

• Total Number Offered – 72
• Private Treaty – 45
• Public Auction – 8
• Total Sales – 53
• Average Price – $2,296,323

All in all, a positive story despite what is being written in the media (never let the facts get in the way of a good story). So moving on, let’s have a look at the ongoing debacle at Julia Gillard’s – Fort Fumble.

Source: The Australian- order Bill Leak’s print

Strong dollar spells political trouble for Labor as voters abandon Julia Gillard’s carbon pricing plan due to be released in July. Easily Australia’s worst ever policy announcement, which is now looks very much dead and buried. Fort Fumble can’t revoke any more new policies, given the number previously done and dusted – an Australian political record.

Budget surplus has to go and by 2012 -13 which is a political decision rather than an economic one. Still a very strong possibility that by the next federal election Australia will still be in budget deficit.

If asked to compare the strength of Julia Gillard’s longevity in Canberra to Mosman real estate prices – it’s a no brainer. Mosman house prices never looked better. Although while we have a Labor Government in power – that would represent a *BUY RECOMMENDATION*.

To all our beautiful “mums” enjoy your day this Sunday – very well deserved and forever the salt of our lives.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Follow Me on Twitter

6.05.11Robert Simeon4 Comments »

.

Forget the last federal election that resulted in a hopeless hung parliament – the new rule is incarcerated in people speak – hallelujah as “united we stand – divided we fall.” Despite what politicians may say with bated breath – polls threaten their very own livelihoods as much as they threaten our right to agree or disagree. Left field policy announcements within the Rudd/Gillard regime has been met with aggression that resurrected – if you don’t like it run an advertising campaign first initiated by the mining companies.

Politicians want to be in the limelight – not a back drop hidden within a party struggling for that voter point of difference whilst in Opposition. It is interesting to note that parties in Opposition burn leaders with regularity given when Bob Hawke was Prime Minister (1983 – 1991) the Liberal Party went through four Opposition leaders, Andrew Peacock (1983 – 1985), John Howard (1985 – 1989), Andrew Peacock (1989 – 1990) and John Hewson (1990 – 1994). When Paul Keating was elected Prime Minister (1991 – 1996) he saw off John Hewson (1990 – 1994), Alexander Downer (1994 – 1995) then lost the 1996 Federal election to John Howard (1995 – 2007). Federal Labor then waved good bye to Kim Beazley (1996 – 2001), Simon Crean (2001 – 2003), Mark Latham (2003 – 2005) and Kim Beazley (2005 – 2006). Enter Kevin Rudd (2006 – 2010), Brendan Nelson (2007 – 2008), Malcolm Turnbull (2008 – 2009) then Tony Abbott (2009 – present).

Julia Gillard removed Kevin Rudd on (24 June 2010 – present) which is the first example of an elected Government burning a Prime Minister. Now we see (Labor worries as PM struggles) and even stranger Labor hits a 15 – year low but Rudd wins where the HeraldNielsen poll now has Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull as the preferred party leaders! Since 1983, Australia has had five Prime Ministers and twelve Opposition leaders with Kevin Rudd becoming just the second Prime Minister to serve just the one term and Julia Gillard fast tracking becoming the third. Federal Labor has now had two Prime Ministers in four years and NSW Labor had four Premiers in four years – a pattern forming?

BUY PRINT

Let’s face it the Carbon Tax is a monumental debacle of mammoth proportion with many questions being asked – well Prime Minister, let’s see if you can hold your nerve. As key union puts Julia Gillard on notice over carbon tax which means that Julia Gillard’s carbon hopes up in smoke. Resembling an all in – brawl as food giants join war on carbon tax a great read on Carbon Tax is learning the hard way: Australia’s policies to reduce emissions – Grattan Institute. Throw in another major problem in that the Gillard Government is now fighting a bewildering array of battles, as it fashions a budget bound to open more fronts – budget blues.

Chris Richardson, Deloitte Access Economics: “The Global Financial Crisis was not a drama for our economy. It was and is still a drama for the Budget.”

Chris Uhlmann: The last forecast said this year’s deficit would land at $41 billion in the red. Next year the projected budget is 412 billion. But slowing growth and falling company and income tax receipts now mean those numbers are too rosy. With the Budget just weeks away, this year’s deficit will be worse.”

Chris Richardson: “Looking at the budget as a rolling 12 – month total, at its worst, it was a little bit over $60 billion in deficit. But that’s more or less where it still is.”

Which would then explain why Wayne Swan leaked figures showing $13bn slump in growth: Hockey. Back to that white board and “Building a better Australia.” As Julia told us!

Source: The Australian

Which brings us to the NBN Co debacle given Fort Fumble has temporarily terminated connections as business chief slams NBN rollout describing it as a squandered opportunity and one of the worst examples of pork – barrelling.  This should not come as any great surprise given Fort Fumble spent $2.5 billion on roof batts, $16 billion on the overpriced BER and spending $50 billion on the NBN Co – without a cost benefit study. Given it has now been halted due to blow – outs Fort Fumble is now considering a … wait for it…. NBN may accept greater risk which translates into greater debt and yet another debacle which would explain why it is currently suspended.

RBA minutes point to rates staying put which means that reading between the lines the cash rate won’t be moved until sometime within the December Quarter 2011. The months of October, November and December will see some upward movement(s) of the official cash rate. With the Federal fudge (oops I meant to say budget) to be released early next month it appears that Wayne Swan is about to announce that forecast growth will drop significantly from the earlier projected figure of 3.25 per cent to 2.25 per cent. That then would equate to a one per cent drop in Australia’s $1.3 trillion economy so the black hole is then $13 billion. Yes the Federal budget will be ugly but not as ugly as the manner in which Fort Fumble has handled Australia’s finances.

NSW ranks bottom in economic momentum as costs eat into savings, and sense of security which means that Barry O’Farrell has plenty of work ahead to rejuvenate and renovate the previous number one economy in Australia. A huge announcement this week: Barry O’Farrell’s pledge to put lid on power which is in stark contrast to the now collapsed Fort Crumble who pinched $15 billion in dividends and put nothing back into electricity – dividend freeze a crucial step.

New home loan numbers plunge: John Symond as residential property prices peaked in 2010 and will continue cooling in the next six months as big mortgage brokers report a 20 per cent drop in loan numbers. It’s too early to extrapolate the January – March 2010 figures against the January – March 2011 sales results – we will do that in a few week’s time as they are still being processed.

In the meantime here are the Mosman house sales and total value for the last ten years from 2000 – 2010 which is a Mosman first and Virtual Realty News exclusive.

Source: Domain Property Data

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES AND TOTAL VALUE – 2000 TO 2010

• 2000 – House Sales: 336 Total Value Of All House Sales: $464,002,395
• 2001 – House Sales: 413 Total Value Of All House Sales: $709,864,118
• 2002 – House Sales: 358 Total Value Of All House Sales: $723,591,555
• 2003 – House Sales: 359 Total Value Of All House Sales: $829,527,432
• 2004 – House Sales: 300 Total Value Of All House Sales: $677,939,257
• 2005 – House Sales: 293 Total Value Of All House Sales: $692,071,000
• 2006 – House Sales: 380 Total Value Of All House Sales: $947,918,130
• 2007 – House Sales: 395 Total Value Of All House Sales: $1,153,099,720
• 2008 – House Sales: 255 Total Value Of All House Sales: $867,925,612
• 2009 – House Sales: 299 Total Value Of All House Sales: $789,424,751
• 2010 – House Sales: 333 Total Value Of All House Sales: $870,181,155

RWM Research: In 2007 Mosman broke the $1 Billion mark for the total value of houses sold in a calendar year with 395 houses selling – also the record.

Next week, we will look at the average and median prices for Mosman houses from 2000 – 2010. As well as scrutinise the upcoming Federal Budget. ‘Wayne’s World’ is suffering as he has lost those ‘rivers of gold’ where many point a finger at his self-created ‘rivers of waste’.

Have a fantastic and safe Easter – savour and share our ANZAC spirit.

“Lest We Forget”

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Follow Me on Twitter

21.04.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

.

Had to agree with Mungo MacCullum when he wrote this week – Has Australian politics ever been more depressing? To such an extent that even Rudd, Turnbull overshadow leaders in poll. Add a NSW state election next week where Premier Bambi is learning fast  that in NSW they like her, but don’t rate her. At least Barry O’Farrell announced “if we don’t deliver, kick us out” which is no doubt a stinging rebuke at Julia Gillard who prefers to pursue policies of lies and deception.

The key is consistency, Labor is lacking where the only thing consistent with our Prime Minister is an inability to lead. Carbon Tax, border protection, health, mining tax announcements all remain  atop of the in–tray, none of which are resolved. Throw in pokies cost – benefit study could make reforms tougher, threatening Labor alliance with Wilkie. Now the Prime Minister is taking on 7,500 pubs and clubs in Australia to appease one “Green vote”. The odds against Australia’s 27^th Prime Minister are shortening. Clue?

When Newspoll results are revealed next Tuesday, the “faceless men” will again come to the fore (somewhat identical to our Australian economy). A carbon tax really needs a mandate to become a reality.  Should Julia Gillard be removed (it could happen) Australia’s most unpopular government ever, has a – rocky road ahead. We all know that the carbon tax is hurting Labor: Nathan Rees as Gillard running out of options on carbon tax as attempts to sell it fail. What will be interesting is to see if tax payer monies are spent advertising her new tax when no monies were available to alleviate a flood tax?

BUY PRINT

Wolseley Road is the world’s ninth priciest in the world which equates to approximately $20,500 a square metre value based on recent comparable sales.  Australia’s number one address for residential real estate?   I still can’t go by Balmoral as my preferred location.

Emissions charges ‘to skyrocket’ by between 118 per cent to 315 per cent when the carbon tax converts to an emissions trading scheme, according to new modelling conducted for the resources industry. In an extraordinary back–flip, Julia Gillard turns on Greens in carbon tax debate which suggests our prime minister has become delusional and is drowning in her deceptions .

Source: The Australian

Interesting to note that property hits new records which further explains why house prices ‘too high for cops, teachers which is easily explained by governments ignoring transport infrastructure where Sydney has the most million – dollar properties.

So let’s look at Mosman house price movement from 1999 to 2010. This week we look at price movements from 1999 to 2004. Next week 2005 to 2010 where market movements are staggering, considering  that all was rosy until the global financial crisis.

1999 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 1
• Total Value – $6,400,000
• Average Price – $6,400,000
• Highest Price – $6,400,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research observations: With hindsight, this sale was a historical moment for Mosman top – end properties where this acquisition was amalgamated with the adjoining property (acquired earlier) to create today, Mosman’s most expensive landholding (nearly 6,000 square metres). This was also the beginning of site consolidations along Hopetoun Avenue.
Source: Domain Property Data

2000 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 4
• Total Value – $22,550,000
• House Sales – $5,000,000 – $5,999,000 – 4
• Average Price – $5,637,500
• Highest Price – $5,900,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research observations: Three sales on The Esplanade and one on Burran Avenue for $5,600,000. The $5,000,000 + markets are now starting to gain momentum.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2001 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 14
• Total Value – $91,860,000
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 7
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 3
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 2
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 -1
• House Sales $15,000,000 to $15,999,000 -1
• Average Price – $6,561,428
• Highest Price – $15,500,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 57 per cent

RWM Research observations: This was the first time Mosman broke the double digit top–end sales market – much like first on the real estate moon. RWM was the first agency to break the $10,000,000 + real estate market.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2002 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of Houses Sold – 12
• Total Value – $79,050,000
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 5
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 3
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 2
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 1
• Average Price – $6,587,500
• Highest Price – $9,400,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent

RWM Research observations: Sales fell from 14 to 12 and the average price above $5,000,000 consolidated. It should be noted that no properties sold in excess of $10,000,000 with $9,400,000 being the highest recorded sale.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2003 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of Houses Sold – 25
• Total Value – $157,900,250
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 14
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 8
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $11,000,000 to $11,999,000 – 1
• Average Price – $6,316,000
• Highest Price – $11,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent

RWM Research: Sales more than doubled to 25 although the average price reduced marginally. This consumer sentiment heralded that the Mosman top – end markets were alive and well. For the time being “money was not an object” money was the lifestyle where the two resided in harmony.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2004 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000.000

• Number of Houses Sold – 18
• Total Value – $124,951,000
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 6
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 9
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 0
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 0
• House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 0
• House Sales $10,000 to $10,999,000 – 2
• House Sales $11,000,000 to $11,999,000 – 1
• Average Price – $6,941,722
• liHighest Price – $11,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research: Top end auctions non–existent with the average prices showing a marginal increase. Sales volume down from 25 to 18 as was the total value sold from $157,900,250 to $124,951,000. Three sales in excess of $10,000,000.
Source: Domain Property Data

A strong possibility that in 2011, the highest sale will be below $10,000,000 – interesting to see what happened to top – end properties in Mosman during the global financial crisis. All revealed in next week’s edition.

Watch the Newspoll results next Tuesday – should her popularity continue to decline (to record lows) her position as prime minister will be all but untenable. I stand by my prediction that by Easter we will have yet another prime minister. Kristina Keneally gone next weekend and Gillard recording the lowest-ever approval rating as a prime minister in Australia’s political history.

Strong possiblity of a challenge next week – The Emperor (KRudd) wants to attend the Royal wedding.

Cheers ^__^

Take a look at look at this week’s property results which is indicative of what happens with new taxes and disasters

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Follow Me on Twitter

18.03.11Robert Simeon30 Comments »

So let’s clarify a few points from an insider’s perspective. Property data is in all probability, ages away from being conclusive (after the result) and why, today does it still remains a dog’s breakfast?

Collectively none of these data collection institutions get it – they spread it and sell misinformation that is simply incomplete and many months away from accuracy.

The dilemma is quite simple. The property aggregators sell the information gathered from the agent, then continue to charge agencies to access its data … which is actually, the intellectual property of the agent. Until they get it right there is a very strong argument as to why agents should cease providing such data.

There are no better examples of such anomalies, when this week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced that house prices fell by minus 2.2 per cent in the March quarter 2009. Australian Property Monitors (Domain Property Data) reported that its research identified that house prices increased by 0.1 per cent in the March quarter 2009. Australian Property Monitors works from exchanged property information and it is no secret that in the current market condition, many vendors instruct agents that the sale price is confidential and not for publication.

Therefore, it can take months (depending on settlement terms) to collect an exacting position which I will identify with the data I have collected. For the record, RP Data – Rismark reported that house prices were up 0.1 per cent in the March quarter 2009. I remain unaware that we supply any data to RP Data – Rismark. I would also add that RWM receives no payment for supplying any property data.

Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2007 to 30 April 2007

• Total sales – 139
• Total value – $350,165,720
• Median price – $2,200,000
• Average price – $2,632,824
• Highest price – $10,200,000

Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2008 to 30 April 2008

• Total sales – 119
• Total value – $309,519,612
• Median price – $2,700,000
• Average price – $2,919,000
• Highest price – $8,500,000

Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2009 to 30 April 2009

• Total sales – 62
• Total value – $86,621,000
• Median price – $1,525,000
• Average price – $2,221,051
• Highest Price – $8,500,000

Source: Australian Property Monitors (Domain Property Data) owned by Fairfax Media

I would suggest that property voyeurs are much more interested in niche markets , for example, Mosman, as against “stew” markets where all the data ingredients are fed into the one murky pot.

As you would have noticed the Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2009 to 30 April 2009 look a tad sick when compared to 2008 and 2007. So when I add our confidential house sales to the data the Total Sales move up from 62 to 71, Total Value from $86,621,000 up to $126,026.000. For the record, RWM has sold the greatest volume in terms of number of sales and total value over this period. The Highest Price also changes where the first number starts with a one (in excess of $10,000,000). This additional $39,405,000 in house sales makes a noticeable change to the current figures. It’s just that now you are the first to know and the aggregators are left shaking their respective heads. This is further complicated by the fact that the vast majority of sales data provided today leaves out the sale price.

I had trouble containing my excitement this week when an old favourite, Bobby Dazzler Carr, made an unexpected appearance, spruiking further debate about the condition of his once beloved Fort Crumble. Obviously, his work time sheets must now be down after he moved from Fort Crumble over to the Millionaires Factory.

The audacity of the argument that the Dazzler was the architect (or should that be builder) whilst presiding over the State of Decay. Whilst stopping short of revealing just exactly where all those “rivers of gold”, disappeared to, on the back of the financial floods from GST, stamp duty and poker machines taxes proved to be of little consequence. It was the system, not, the government the Dazzler declared (to those that listened – not many I think).

Of course it was , how silly of us to assume anything else as Fort Crumble now stumbles down an estimated $2 billion budget deficit by June 30. Just as interesting, south of the border, Victoria’s Fort Fabulous is in surplus and offering tax cuts because Jeff Kennett did what our very own Dazzler couldn’t deliver, while Kennett financially and politically, renovated his Fortress.

Tensions between Ruddy Fantastic and the latest landlord over at Fort Crumble are not that good to say the least. Ruddy Fantastic is presently conducting a three day jobs summit in Western Sydney, and no members from Fort Crumble were asked to attend – another clue?

As quick as a flash, Fort Crumble jumped the land tax rate for property valued above $2.250 million from 1.6 per cent to 2 per cent. The irony is that these properties are already (after tax) in negative rental return, so the landlords then increase their negative gearing tax deductions, which Ruddy Fantastic then picks up.

Will negative gearing be abolished in next week’s Fudge-it?

One should also not forget, that Fort Crumble is reportedly crunching the numbers to introduce its latest annual land tax grab which apparently applies to every property owner within the State of Decay. If true, this would be political suicide – but then again, when you have a $2 billion budget deficit Fort Crumble is now in critical decision or, should that be condition? Ruddy Fantastic would be thankful he resides north of Fort Crumble’s moat.

Next week’s Federal “Fudge It “ will be riveting, more particularly if the budget deficit blows in (or should that read out) around $70 billion as quite a few are predicting.

With elected politicians in overdrive on their Twitter accounts all will be revealed on next week’s Tweet’s – if you are not on Twitter, you don’t know what you are missing out on. Have a look http://twitter.com/ Compelling viewing indeed – love Twitter.

We are very happy to announce that each week we will showcase one of Tim Mooney’s aerial masterpieces in Virtual Realty News. Tim has been a subscriber for many years. After prolonged negotiations – we now can bring you these amazing shots exclusively. Tim has actually spent more time in the air than Superman – if you click on this week’s aerial photograph you will be taken to Tim’s website.

Cheers and Tweet’s ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

Follow Me on Twitter

8.05.09Robert Simeon7 Comments »

Compared to what I read last Friday night when I opened my daily www.crikey.com.au electronic magazine, the new economic war is all about fighting growing global unemployment. Spare a thought.

“WASHINGTON: A record 32.2 million people – one in every 10 Americans — received food stamps at the latest count, the government said on Thursday, and a reflection of the recession now in its 16th month. Food stamps, the major U.S. anti-hunger program, help poor people buy groceries. The average benefit was $112.82 per person in January. The January figure marks the third time in five months that enrolment set a record.” Source:Reuters

Two editions ago, I wrote “Living in the past and struggling with the future”. Our current recession is definitely not a case of better late than never – more a case of elected politicians who have stymied our very own economies through gross mismanagement of resources, education, health, transport, employment etc.”

Last Saturday’s edition of “The Weekend Australian Financial Review” a brilliant article was filed by Damon Kitney and Annabel Hepworth titled “The man who must stop the gravy train”.
Sydney’s northern suburbs boast some of the best beaches in the world. But try venturing across the Spit Bridge on a clear Sydney day at any time of year and half your day will probably be gone before you arrive on the sand.

It’s the same at morning and evening peak hour, when the narrow four-lane bridge separating Mosman and the northern beaches regularly resembles a parking lot.

Yet when one building industry executive inquired last year of a current minister in the Rees Labor government about the chronic lack of infrastructure through the region all the way up to Palm Beach, the reply was simple: F—k ‘em, they get nothing up there, just f—k ‘em.” the minister reportedly said. These are the bad old days of NSW Labor.”

Enter Ruddy Fantastic’s Infrastructure Australia and not before time.

So the formula applied to NSW tax payers (Stamp Duty, Land Tax, Payroll Tax and GST allocation) doesn’t discriminate yet the allocation of infrastructure spending does? This simply explains why infrastructure in NSW is in a ‘state’ of chaos.

I am a strong supporter of Ruddy Fantastic’s Infrastructure Australia and a fan of appointed chairman Rod Eddington. With state and territory governments now (collectively) in budget deficit, the power of infrastructure spending has been removed from the states and territories to the new (independent) governing power – Infrastructure Australia.

With the federal government also staring down at a budget deficit, it too will have to find a way to climb back into budget surplus. In my humble opinion, the Global Financial Crisis will prove that Australia no longer requires state and territory governments and a smart vehicle like Infrastructure Australia, spells the demise of middle government and not before time.

The corruption and waste of taxpayer revenues is well documented where more than a penny drops into the federal government’s coffers. Infrastructure Australia will in all probability be Rudd’s check (cheque) – mate for turning a budget deficit around. GST has failed miserably and taxes went up (as against the promise of coming down) – so time to bring infrastructure and taxation under the one umbrella. If it comes off (and only incompetence would stop this coming to fruition) – a brilliant political power play.

The federal government urgently needs to beef – up the Australian economy. Now the independently operated Infrastructure Australia will be adding the much needed gravy to the beef.

So let’s look at the upward movement of Mosman house prices from 2000 to 2008 a tale of position, power, glory and not necessarily a bad story. Today, you hold not fold – major banks don’t have non-performing loans on their respective radars as against previous banking mandates of past recessions. Simply put: markets recover and the Mosman property currency remains one of the strongest in Australia as I will identify in coming editions.

Here is a quick brain teaser. How many $10,000,000 plus Mosman house sales were recorded from 2000 to 2008? Have a think and I will get to the answer later on.

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES FROM 2000 – 2008 IN EXCESS OF $5,000,000

2000

• Total Sales – 4
• Total Value – $22,500,000
• Average Sale Price – $5,637,500
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,150,000
• Highest Sale Price – $5,900,000
  

  2001

• Total Sales – 12
• Total Value – $77,385,000
• Average Sale Price – $6,448,750
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,400,000
• Highest Sale Price – $15.500,000 (Mosman’s first $10,000,000+ sale)
  

  2002

• Total Sales – 9
• Total Value – $54,650,000
• Average Sale Price – $6,072,222
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,400,000
• Highest Sale Price – $9,400,000
  

  2003

• Total Sales – 19
• Total Value – $120,518,250
• Average Sale Price – $6,343,065
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
• Highest Sale Price – $11,000,000
  

  2004

• Total Sales – 16
• Total Value – $112,151,000
• Average Sale Price – $7,009,437
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
• Highest Sale Price – $11,000,000
  

  2005

• Total sales – 16
• Total Value – $137,720,000
• Average Sale Price – $8,607,500
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,100,000
• Highest Sale Price – $14,800,000
  

  2006

• Total Sales – 31
• Total Value – $231,285,000
• Average Sale Price – $7,460,806
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
• Highest Sale Price – $15,000,000
  

  2007

• Total Sales – 44
• Total Value – $349,650,000
• Average Sales Price – $7,946,590
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,050,000
• Highest Sale Price – $22,500,000 (new Mosman record)
  

  2008 – Enter Global Financial Crisis

• Total Sales – 25
• Total Value – $170,050,000
• Average Sale Price – $6,802,000
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
• Highest Sale Price – $14,700,000

  Source: Australian Property Monitors

  There have actually been 30 recorded sales in excess of $10,000,000 from 2000 – 2008. The agents I spoke with guessed between 12 and 18 sales – I will reveal more data in next week’s edition which will identify the excellent opportunities on offer in this price demographic.

  This week, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates by 0.25 per cent which now takes the cash rate (3.00 per cent) to the lowest level in forty nine years. An anti – climax because the major banks decided to either not pass on and/or minimise reductions to borrowers. With the benefit of hindsight the RBA would acknowledge that the latest rate reduction amounts to very little.

  Makes one wonder exactly who is running our country – the banks or the federal government?

  Obviously the bank deposit guarantee and the ban on short selling financials means next to nothing to them. How would they react if they were lifted? The federal government came to the party and now the banks must dance to that tune – or else.

  Better still why are the major banks charging credit cards at 600 per cent over the present cash rate of 3.00 per cent? Credit card debt should be a government priority in a recession that forces the banks to tow the line with credit card interest rates. Such a move would assist struggling families – and identify that they (banks) are no longer a law unto themselves. Messrs Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan and Lindsay Tanner, need to decisively act and Messrs Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey need to keep them honest.

  Our blog awaits your thoughtful insights.

  Have a fantastic and safe Easter.

  Cheers with chocolate on top ^__^

  For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

  Follow Me on Twitter

  9.04.09Robert Simeon3 Comments »

Already media outlet www.crikey.com.au is referring to newspaper reporting as “recession p-rn” (add an o in the missing space) as it is everywhere. It appears that every “recession p-rn” article appearing on Fairfax Media, News Ltd papers and websites, has resulted in prospective sellers cancelling their 2009 print marketing campaigns and opting for online marketing (the cheaper alternative).

Fairfax Media and News Ltd real estate print revenues will be smashed in 2009 when these (previously) “rivers of gold” will become dry creek beds. Smarter print initiatives need to evolve which, with respect, should have already been released for the 2009 real estate markets. This simply explains why vendors are presently reluctant to engage in costly campaigns – preferring to opt for the high tech online agencies. Our point of difference in this market is our online investment in technology.

Here are the exclusive facts based on sales evidence provided by Australian Property Monitors. The Mosman house market consisting of 4,900 houses would, in strong markets, trade at ten per cent of volume. 2008 was the worst ever recorded year in terms of Mosman house sales where just 219 sales were recorded as compared to 384 in 2007.

Mosman House Sales In 2008

Total sales – 219

Total Value Sold – $580,558,112.00

Private Treaty – 156

Auction – 63

Median Price – $2,376,000

Average Price – $2,870,373

Mosman House Sales in 2007

Total sales – 384

Total Value Sold – $1,153,329,720

Private Treaty – 270

Auction – 114

Median Price – $2,360,000

Average Price – $3,003,462

Mosman, for quite some time, has identified itself as a difficult auction market as anecdotal sales evidence proves.

If you look at the monthly Mosman house sales evidence, the story unfolds in 2008.

January 2008 – 8 home sales

February 2008 – 24 house sales

March 2008 – 24 house sales

April 2008 – 25 house sales

May 2008 – 30 house sales

June 2008 – 20 house sales

July 2008 – 17 house sales

August 2008 – 22 house sales

September 2008 – 13 house sales

October 2008 – 14 house sales

November 2008 – 12 house sales

December 2008 – 9 House sales

These figures will increase somewhat however it is clear that sales volume for Mosman houses in 2009 is obviously well down on previous years. The sales volume decrease in recorded Mosman house sales is 43 per cent down from 2007 to 2008 and 55 per cent down from recorded sales in 2006 compared to 2008. The percentage decreases over the same periods for average and median prices are nowhere as severe. What is blatantly obvious is the fact that Mosman is very much a private treaty suburb and not a public auction suburb which was further evidenced late last year when some clearance rates fell below ten per cent.

Again we are not valuing any mortgagee in possession properties for banking institutions so the ongoing rumours that half the suburb is on the market, is clearly incorrect. Yes – values are down by approximately ten to fifteen per cent however confidence levels are down by over 50 per cent which is an exact reflection of the market.

Another first in 2009 will in all probability see the tightest property volumes offered to the market place in years. What many fail to understand is that house volumes keep reducing not increasing and we know what that does to values. The tug – a – house battle in 2009 will be just as intriguing as probably every other thing that we will observe in the coming year.

We are now into our ninth year of Virtual Realty News and this year will be compelling. Welcome back and cheers! Next week we will look at how Mosman apartments performed. ^__^

Follow Me on Twitter

23.01.09Robert Simeon5 Comments »