2009 – The recession we had to have?…………or keep reading about!
Already media outlet www.crikey.com.au is referring to newspaper reporting as “recession p-rn” (add an o in the missing space) as it is everywhere. It appears that every “recession p-rn” article appearing on Fairfax Media, News Ltd papers and websites, has resulted in prospective sellers cancelling their 2009 print marketing campaigns and opting for online marketing (the cheaper alternative).
Fairfax Media and News Ltd real estate print revenues will be smashed in 2009 when these (previously) “rivers of gold” will become dry creek beds. Smarter print initiatives need to evolve which, with respect, should have already been released for the 2009 real estate markets. This simply explains why vendors are presently reluctant to engage in costly campaigns – preferring to opt for the high tech online agencies. Our point of difference in this market is our online investment in technology.
Here are the exclusive facts based on sales evidence provided by Australian Property Monitors. The Mosman house market consisting of 4,900 houses would, in strong markets, trade at ten per cent of volume. 2008 was the worst ever recorded year in terms of Mosman house sales where just 219 sales were recorded as compared to 384 in 2007.
Mosman House Sales In 2008
Total sales – 219
Total Value Sold – $580,558,112.00
Private Treaty – 156
Auction – 63
Median Price – $2,376,000
Average Price – $2,870,373
Mosman House Sales in 2007
Total sales – 384
Total Value Sold – $1,153,329,720
Private Treaty – 270
Auction – 114
Median Price – $2,360,000
Average Price – $3,003,462
Mosman, for quite some time, has identified itself as a difficult auction market as anecdotal sales evidence proves.
If you look at the monthly Mosman house sales evidence, the story unfolds in 2008.
January 2008 – 8 home sales
February 2008 – 24 house sales
March 2008 – 24 house sales
April 2008 – 25 house sales
May 2008 – 30 house sales
June 2008 – 20 house sales
July 2008 – 17 house sales
August 2008 – 22 house sales
September 2008 – 13 house sales
October 2008 – 14 house sales
November 2008 – 12 house sales
December 2008 – 9 House sales
These figures will increase somewhat however it is clear that sales volume for Mosman houses in 2009 is obviously well down on previous years. The sales volume decrease in recorded Mosman house sales is 43 per cent down from 2007 to 2008 and 55 per cent down from recorded sales in 2006 compared to 2008. The percentage decreases over the same periods for average and median prices are nowhere as severe. What is blatantly obvious is the fact that Mosman is very much a private treaty suburb and not a public auction suburb which was further evidenced late last year when some clearance rates fell below ten per cent.
Again we are not valuing any mortgagee in possession properties for banking institutions so the ongoing rumours that half the suburb is on the market, is clearly incorrect. Yes – values are down by approximately ten to fifteen per cent however confidence levels are down by over 50 per cent which is an exact reflection of the market.
Another first in 2009 will in all probability see the tightest property volumes offered to the market place in years. What many fail to understand is that house volumes keep reducing not increasing and we know what that does to values. The tug – a – house battle in 2009 will be just as intriguing as probably every other thing that we will observe in the coming year.
We are now into our ninth year of Virtual Realty News and this year will be compelling. Welcome back and cheers! Next week we will look at how Mosman apartments performed. ^__^
