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When Julia Gillard stealthily snatched the keys to Fort Fumble from Kevin Rudd in the dead of night, June 23 2010, her action was based on the party’s belief that he had “lost his way”. Ten months later the party is now shipwrecked on Point Rock at Hard Place.

In political speak, the compass is often called a poll, although Prime Minister Julia Gillard recently commented after disastrous polling, “I don’t comment on the polls, and I don’t spend much time wondering about them.” The polls were close to one hundred per cent correct long before Fort Fumble was decimated at last month’s NSW election. Polls come and go, and so do leaders as was the case in NSW where it become a simple choice of either ditch the policies or ditch the leader.  It’s now Julia Gillard versus the carbon tax, NBN Co, East Timor solution and a budget deficit that’s getting worse, not better.

Infrastructure is without a doubt the greatest problem facing modern day Australia today. NSW firms get crumbs as workers flee – almost half of NSW businesses are having difficulty finding skilled employees as they compete with the higher pay packets being offered in the mining sector.  NSW faces a skilled worker shortage given the reconstruction work in Queensland and the ever expanding mining sectors which will drive wages to dangerous levels as the shortages multiply each month and inflation will follow as inflation on a knife – edge.

BUY PRINT

I asked Tim Mooney if (by chance) he would be flying over Westminster Abbey to get an aerial shot of today’s Royal Wedding.  Unfortunately, due to budget restrictions, we settled on The Abbey in Glebe, Sydney

New home starts in 2011 are fast tracking the weakest declines since the mid 1990’s with property prices remaining subdued and many will say this is a good thing. Although on the flip side, it means that the circular flow of income (which is the oxygen for the economy) stalls, with the lack of economic growth and confidence. Home prices declined nationally in March quarter: APM we expect the same results once the June quarter figures are announced given housing credit growth remains fragile.

This week’s inflation numbers certainly point to higher interest rates by year’s end as Australia’s consumer price index rose 1.6 per cent in the March quarter (its largest quarterly jump in almost five years). The housing group is up from the 0.6 per cent level of the December quarter, with the annual rate of increase, the lowest since the September quarter of 2007. Contributing to the annual increase of 4.8 per cent for the housing group, were substantial increases in the price of utilities – 11.7 per cent for electricity, 12.8 per cent for water and sewerage and 6.2 per cent for property rates and charges. Rents increased by 4.5 per cent for the year on a weighted average, over eight capital cities and the cost of house purchase increased 2.6 per cent.

Source: The Australian, Bill Leak

Show us the money Mr Swan: it’s time to stop squandering our future by Malcolm Turnbull :Well, one thing to be said for Swan’s latest excuse is that it makes a change from the past three years of using the global financial crisis to justify failed programs and irresponsible choices.

Of course Wayne Swan nails it, when it comes to explaining the economic machinations of our economy.  Petrol jumped 8.8 per cent, vegetables increased by 16 per cent following the Queensland and Victorian floods and Cyclone Yasi and fruit increased by 14.5 per cent.  Surprise and further surprise, almost forty (40) per cent of retail spending by Australian households now lands in the cash registers of either Coles or Woolworths, according to exclusive new research by Commonwealth Bank grocery giants in 40% grab. For example: bananas cost $2.99 a kilo prior to Cyclone Yasi and jumped to $16.00 a kilo in March.

CBA’s analysis conducted for The Sunday Telegraph shows that of the $242 billion in retail sales last year, $94.3 billion or 38.9 per cent, is taken by one of the corporate giants (Coles or Woolworths) who command $46.7bn and $47.5bn respectively.

Just can’t resist another dig at the Carbon tax battle: bureaucracy v business which is an interesting debate although it should be noted that a politician will always place his/her very own job security way  ahead of endorsing a tax that threatens the length of their careers . The Carbon tax will destroy the Gillard government as the people sit in poll position and the Government is on the way to the panel beaters. Liar, liar – hair on fire!

Thousands to be stuck in NBN ‘limbo’ which is another amazing example of incompetence as thousands of Australians (many in regional areas think of the Independents) can now expect years of worse, not better, internet services as the NBN rolls out across Australia. Well it is currently stalled and facing huge cost blow–outs NBN Co housing forecasts deemed unrealistic.  Oh dear, here we go again!

To give a better understanding of the Rudd/Gillard management style of running Australia, former Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner will release his book next week titled “SIDESHOW” Ex-minister unloads on Rudd govt.

Lindsay Tanner – on the 2010 Campaign – “The worst in living memory. Banal slogans, robotic delivery, and trivial policy announcement deployed by both major parties.”

Lindsay Tanner – on Federal politics –  “Modern politics now resembles a Hollywood blockbuster: all special effects and no plot.

Last week we covered Mosman house sales and total value sold – 2000 to 2010. This week –

MOSMAN AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES FROM 2000 TO 2010

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Source: Domain Property Data

• 2000 – Up to $5,000,000 $1,329,677. Above $5,000,000 $5,637,500
• 2001 – Up to $5,000,000 $1,548,882. Above $5,000,000 $6,561,428
• 2002 – Up to $5,000,000 $1,862,836. Above $5,000,000 $6,587,500
• 2003 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,010,859. Above $5,000,000 $6,316,000
• 2004 – Up to $5,000,000 $1,854,568. Above $5,000,000 $6,941,722
• 2005 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,017,809. Above $5,000,000 $8,741,333
• 2006 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,110,469. Above $5,000,000 $7,115,228
• 2007 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,291,431. Above $5,000,000 $7,845,348
• 2008 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,267,210. Above $5,000,000 $7,170,000
• 2009 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,276,172. Above $5,000,000 $7,226,136
• 2010 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,355,472. Above $5,000,000 $7,212,826

Now that is a pretty consistent score card in both market demographics, especially when we take into consideration, the global financial crisis (2008 – 2010). Interesting statistics to bear in mind when the 2011 Budget is explained, given that the global financial crisis was in the northern hemisphere!

Next week, we will release the Mosman March quarter house sales for 2010, as compared to 2011.

Anyone prepared to make a prediction?

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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29.04.11Robert Simeon7 Comments »

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Forget the last federal election that resulted in a hopeless hung parliament – the new rule is incarcerated in people speak – hallelujah as “united we stand – divided we fall.” Despite what politicians may say with bated breath – polls threaten their very own livelihoods as much as they threaten our right to agree or disagree. Left field policy announcements within the Rudd/Gillard regime has been met with aggression that resurrected – if you don’t like it run an advertising campaign first initiated by the mining companies.

Politicians want to be in the limelight – not a back drop hidden within a party struggling for that voter point of difference whilst in Opposition. It is interesting to note that parties in Opposition burn leaders with regularity given when Bob Hawke was Prime Minister (1983 – 1991) the Liberal Party went through four Opposition leaders, Andrew Peacock (1983 – 1985), John Howard (1985 – 1989), Andrew Peacock (1989 – 1990) and John Hewson (1990 – 1994). When Paul Keating was elected Prime Minister (1991 – 1996) he saw off John Hewson (1990 – 1994), Alexander Downer (1994 – 1995) then lost the 1996 Federal election to John Howard (1995 – 2007). Federal Labor then waved good bye to Kim Beazley (1996 – 2001), Simon Crean (2001 – 2003), Mark Latham (2003 – 2005) and Kim Beazley (2005 – 2006). Enter Kevin Rudd (2006 – 2010), Brendan Nelson (2007 – 2008), Malcolm Turnbull (2008 – 2009) then Tony Abbott (2009 – present).

Julia Gillard removed Kevin Rudd on (24 June 2010 – present) which is the first example of an elected Government burning a Prime Minister. Now we see (Labor worries as PM struggles) and even stranger Labor hits a 15 – year low but Rudd wins where the HeraldNielsen poll now has Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull as the preferred party leaders! Since 1983, Australia has had five Prime Ministers and twelve Opposition leaders with Kevin Rudd becoming just the second Prime Minister to serve just the one term and Julia Gillard fast tracking becoming the third. Federal Labor has now had two Prime Ministers in four years and NSW Labor had four Premiers in four years – a pattern forming?

BUY PRINT

Let’s face it the Carbon Tax is a monumental debacle of mammoth proportion with many questions being asked – well Prime Minister, let’s see if you can hold your nerve. As key union puts Julia Gillard on notice over carbon tax which means that Julia Gillard’s carbon hopes up in smoke. Resembling an all in – brawl as food giants join war on carbon tax a great read on Carbon Tax is learning the hard way: Australia’s policies to reduce emissions – Grattan Institute. Throw in another major problem in that the Gillard Government is now fighting a bewildering array of battles, as it fashions a budget bound to open more fronts – budget blues.

Chris Richardson, Deloitte Access Economics: “The Global Financial Crisis was not a drama for our economy. It was and is still a drama for the Budget.”

Chris Uhlmann: The last forecast said this year’s deficit would land at $41 billion in the red. Next year the projected budget is 412 billion. But slowing growth and falling company and income tax receipts now mean those numbers are too rosy. With the Budget just weeks away, this year’s deficit will be worse.”

Chris Richardson: “Looking at the budget as a rolling 12 – month total, at its worst, it was a little bit over $60 billion in deficit. But that’s more or less where it still is.”

Which would then explain why Wayne Swan leaked figures showing $13bn slump in growth: Hockey. Back to that white board and “Building a better Australia.” As Julia told us!

Source: The Australian

Which brings us to the NBN Co debacle given Fort Fumble has temporarily terminated connections as business chief slams NBN rollout describing it as a squandered opportunity and one of the worst examples of pork – barrelling.  This should not come as any great surprise given Fort Fumble spent $2.5 billion on roof batts, $16 billion on the overpriced BER and spending $50 billion on the NBN Co – without a cost benefit study. Given it has now been halted due to blow – outs Fort Fumble is now considering a … wait for it…. NBN may accept greater risk which translates into greater debt and yet another debacle which would explain why it is currently suspended.

RBA minutes point to rates staying put which means that reading between the lines the cash rate won’t be moved until sometime within the December Quarter 2011. The months of October, November and December will see some upward movement(s) of the official cash rate. With the Federal fudge (oops I meant to say budget) to be released early next month it appears that Wayne Swan is about to announce that forecast growth will drop significantly from the earlier projected figure of 3.25 per cent to 2.25 per cent. That then would equate to a one per cent drop in Australia’s $1.3 trillion economy so the black hole is then $13 billion. Yes the Federal budget will be ugly but not as ugly as the manner in which Fort Fumble has handled Australia’s finances.

NSW ranks bottom in economic momentum as costs eat into savings, and sense of security which means that Barry O’Farrell has plenty of work ahead to rejuvenate and renovate the previous number one economy in Australia. A huge announcement this week: Barry O’Farrell’s pledge to put lid on power which is in stark contrast to the now collapsed Fort Crumble who pinched $15 billion in dividends and put nothing back into electricity – dividend freeze a crucial step.

New home loan numbers plunge: John Symond as residential property prices peaked in 2010 and will continue cooling in the next six months as big mortgage brokers report a 20 per cent drop in loan numbers. It’s too early to extrapolate the January – March 2010 figures against the January – March 2011 sales results – we will do that in a few week’s time as they are still being processed.

In the meantime here are the Mosman house sales and total value for the last ten years from 2000 – 2010 which is a Mosman first and Virtual Realty News exclusive.

Source: Domain Property Data

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES AND TOTAL VALUE – 2000 TO 2010

• 2000 – House Sales: 336 Total Value Of All House Sales: $464,002,395
• 2001 – House Sales: 413 Total Value Of All House Sales: $709,864,118
• 2002 – House Sales: 358 Total Value Of All House Sales: $723,591,555
• 2003 – House Sales: 359 Total Value Of All House Sales: $829,527,432
• 2004 – House Sales: 300 Total Value Of All House Sales: $677,939,257
• 2005 – House Sales: 293 Total Value Of All House Sales: $692,071,000
• 2006 – House Sales: 380 Total Value Of All House Sales: $947,918,130
• 2007 – House Sales: 395 Total Value Of All House Sales: $1,153,099,720
• 2008 – House Sales: 255 Total Value Of All House Sales: $867,925,612
• 2009 – House Sales: 299 Total Value Of All House Sales: $789,424,751
• 2010 – House Sales: 333 Total Value Of All House Sales: $870,181,155

RWM Research: In 2007 Mosman broke the $1 Billion mark for the total value of houses sold in a calendar year with 395 houses selling – also the record.

Next week, we will look at the average and median prices for Mosman houses from 2000 – 2010. As well as scrutinise the upcoming Federal Budget. ‘Wayne’s World’ is suffering as he has lost those ‘rivers of gold’ where many point a finger at his self-created ‘rivers of waste’.

Have a fantastic and safe Easter – savour and share our ANZAC spirit.

“Lest We Forget”

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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21.04.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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In life when individuals face that much dreaded financial crisis it’s the  outgoings that need to be harnessed so it comes as little surprise that Fort Fumble is facing a funding dilemma. There are very big cracks appearing (both internal and external) for a Government in serious difficulty to make ends meet as Julia Gillard warns of tough budget. A tough budget can have serious ramifications with consumer confidence.  This  then resonates through business by stymieing economic growth and strangling productivity.  Executives expect sales to fall on rising fuel, wages – study.

Allow me to apply the KISS Theory – (Keep It Simple Stupid.)

Facing a budget deficit of $41.5 billion in 2010/11 the Gillard Government now needs to borrow in excess of $110 million every day to meet its debt commitments. Despite forming Government in 2007, and then being dropped into a global financial crisis or (northern hemisphere financial crisis as many now call it). Fort Fumble would love nothing more than to get its hands on that $20 billion surplus and zero net debt, inherited when it  came to Government.

The Wayne Swan economic theory – “Shout the Bar” recovery is now considered a dismal failure.

Company tax slump puts hole in budget where Treasury minutes identify that 2010/2011 tax revenues will reach only $60.6 billion which is 10 per cent down on last year’s revenue forecast of $66.5 billion. Before last year’s election Treasury was projecting company tax revenue of $80 billion – which equates to a $20 billion or a 33 per cent bum steer. The 2010 Budget also factored in an exchange rate of US90c which is approximately 15 per cent lower than today’s rate. Economists are now projecting that the Aussie dollar will be at US1.10 by year’s end. Bugger – Wayne Swan has no Plan B given natural disasters forecast to cost economy $9 billion.

Saving Swan from himself thanks to our commodity price boom the budget bottom line would be woeful. As Malcolm Turnbull pointed out in a speech in Melbourne yesterday. “Treasury now calculates that the resources boom generated revenue windfalls of approximately $65 billion during Labor’s first three years. Of course every cent and more was spent.” He added that Treasury projects that a further $30 billion is set to flow into government coffers in 2011 – 12 as a result of the boom. But, he added, ‘when Wayne Swan delivers the 2011 – 12 Budget on May 10, you can safely bet every cent of that will be spent too.” When one clearly looks at the entire economy it becomes blatantly obvious that mining hides flatlining economy. Which takes us to the next level of discussions Turnbull first and clearest on the need for a sovereign wealth fund.

BUY PRINT

Without jumping to obvious conclusions, Fort Fumble’s directive for an immediate tools down order is estimated to be worth more than $12 billion – a signal that this project is now headed backwards. High prices force NBN to suspend cabling tender process and look elsewhere and as day follows night NBN head of construction Flannigan quits. So far Fort Fumble has spent $1.400 billion and to date, only 500 Tasmanian households have been connected.  This equates to a cost (per household) of $2.800 million for each connection and it will only get worse as fears National Broadband Network bill could top $44bn.

Freedom of Information revealed PM’s carbon tax to cost households $16.60 a week, Treasury figures show then an unintelligent  rebuttal  by Climate Change Minister Greg Combet who dismissed the finding, saying “they are not modelling that would reflect the Governments current approach.” Of course Mr Combet is banking on the fact that much like company tax projections, his Treasury has a 33 per cent over projection?  The only problem with the rejection is that the Government can’t correct the Treasury figure because (it appears) that it is yet to cost a carbon price. Or, if such a carbon price does exist, why does it remain a secret as detail of carbon compensation up in the air.

Source: The Australian – I was wrong to ditch emissions trading: Rudd

Reserve Bank holds back on interest rate rise given underlying inflation which has slowed to its lowest level in a decade, despite soaring petrol and food prices. You can also throw in residential rent increases which increased nationally by 1.4 per cent and by 2.7 per cent in the capital cities according to the RP Data March 2011 Quarterly Rent Review. The average rent for an apartment in Sydney is now $430.00 per week and that does not include utilities and an extra $16.60 per week for a  carbon tax. If Fort Fumble was not in such a dire financial position, would a carbon tax have been considered? Is it to reduce emissions or reduce Government debt?

No home price growth over the next year: NAB which is not a bad thing as economic markets reconfigure and stabilise. I don’t support the Australian housing bubble argument and those comparisons to what happened in America. Firstly, our banks are up there with the best performing on a global scale. Secondly, in Australia (unlike America) you can’t send the keys back when the going gets tough without facing the financial consequences. Thirdly, Australia has a rapidly growing population and a severe under-supply of housing.  Australia’s affluent suburbs have been driving up the national average although the measure relates to average income. Those with an average income do not purchase in the affluent suburbs.  Those with above average incomes do. The Australian property bubble will only burst if the ‘above average’ earners find themselves in dire financial circumstances that necessitate an immediate property market withdrawal – which won’t be happening anytime soon.

Australia today is just one of a handful of countries remaining, where the sale of the family home is tax free . Nor is it tax deductible as is the case in the vast majority of countries.  Maybe the Australian housing formula is what other countries should be adopting,  to ensure that their property markets remain stronger during a financial crisis? It is very hard to argue with the property facts – and facts are obviously missing with the carbon tax debate.   This  is why support for Labor and Julia Gillard plunges again as carbon tax takes its toll and this week’s sin – binning of the NBN Co will only make matters worse. For Labor it’s Julia or bust given the party she leads is starting to make the Estate of the Late Fort Crumble look like the perfect political party.

What you didn’t read in The Sydney Morning Herald this week was Jonathan Chancellor quits SMH to set up rival site. Sadly, we can reveal that he won’t be joining us here on Virtual Realty News as he doesn’t want a tax problem. After Virtual Realty News Jonathan’s Title Deeds column is the most popular weekly read in real estate!!!

Crikey! After 25 years, this real estate legend has well and truly stood the test of time. Another newspaper journalist moving from broadsheet to online.  Who would ever have  thought?

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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8.04.11Robert Simeon9 Comments »

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Had to agree with Mungo MacCullum when he wrote this week – Has Australian politics ever been more depressing? To such an extent that even Rudd, Turnbull overshadow leaders in poll. Add a NSW state election next week where Premier Bambi is learning fast  that in NSW they like her, but don’t rate her. At least Barry O’Farrell announced “if we don’t deliver, kick us out” which is no doubt a stinging rebuke at Julia Gillard who prefers to pursue policies of lies and deception.

The key is consistency, Labor is lacking where the only thing consistent with our Prime Minister is an inability to lead. Carbon Tax, border protection, health, mining tax announcements all remain  atop of the in–tray, none of which are resolved. Throw in pokies cost – benefit study could make reforms tougher, threatening Labor alliance with Wilkie. Now the Prime Minister is taking on 7,500 pubs and clubs in Australia to appease one “Green vote”. The odds against Australia’s 27^th Prime Minister are shortening. Clue?

When Newspoll results are revealed next Tuesday, the “faceless men” will again come to the fore (somewhat identical to our Australian economy). A carbon tax really needs a mandate to become a reality.  Should Julia Gillard be removed (it could happen) Australia’s most unpopular government ever, has a – rocky road ahead. We all know that the carbon tax is hurting Labor: Nathan Rees as Gillard running out of options on carbon tax as attempts to sell it fail. What will be interesting is to see if tax payer monies are spent advertising her new tax when no monies were available to alleviate a flood tax?

BUY PRINT

Wolseley Road is the world’s ninth priciest in the world which equates to approximately $20,500 a square metre value based on recent comparable sales.  Australia’s number one address for residential real estate?   I still can’t go by Balmoral as my preferred location.

Emissions charges ‘to skyrocket’ by between 118 per cent to 315 per cent when the carbon tax converts to an emissions trading scheme, according to new modelling conducted for the resources industry. In an extraordinary back–flip, Julia Gillard turns on Greens in carbon tax debate which suggests our prime minister has become delusional and is drowning in her deceptions .

Source: The Australian

Interesting to note that property hits new records which further explains why house prices ‘too high for cops, teachers which is easily explained by governments ignoring transport infrastructure where Sydney has the most million – dollar properties.

So let’s look at Mosman house price movement from 1999 to 2010. This week we look at price movements from 1999 to 2004. Next week 2005 to 2010 where market movements are staggering, considering  that all was rosy until the global financial crisis.

1999 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 1
• Total Value – $6,400,000
• Average Price – $6,400,000
• Highest Price – $6,400,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research observations: With hindsight, this sale was a historical moment for Mosman top – end properties where this acquisition was amalgamated with the adjoining property (acquired earlier) to create today, Mosman’s most expensive landholding (nearly 6,000 square metres). This was also the beginning of site consolidations along Hopetoun Avenue.
Source: Domain Property Data

2000 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 4
• Total Value – $22,550,000
• House Sales – $5,000,000 – $5,999,000 – 4
• Average Price – $5,637,500
• Highest Price – $5,900,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research observations: Three sales on The Esplanade and one on Burran Avenue for $5,600,000. The $5,000,000 + markets are now starting to gain momentum.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2001 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 14
• Total Value – $91,860,000
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 7
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 3
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 2
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 -1
• House Sales $15,000,000 to $15,999,000 -1
• Average Price – $6,561,428
• Highest Price – $15,500,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 57 per cent

RWM Research observations: This was the first time Mosman broke the double digit top–end sales market – much like first on the real estate moon. RWM was the first agency to break the $10,000,000 + real estate market.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2002 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of Houses Sold – 12
• Total Value – $79,050,000
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 5
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 3
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 2
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 1
• Average Price – $6,587,500
• Highest Price – $9,400,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent

RWM Research observations: Sales fell from 14 to 12 and the average price above $5,000,000 consolidated. It should be noted that no properties sold in excess of $10,000,000 with $9,400,000 being the highest recorded sale.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2003 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of Houses Sold – 25
• Total Value – $157,900,250
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 14
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 8
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $11,000,000 to $11,999,000 – 1
• Average Price – $6,316,000
• Highest Price – $11,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent

RWM Research: Sales more than doubled to 25 although the average price reduced marginally. This consumer sentiment heralded that the Mosman top – end markets were alive and well. For the time being “money was not an object” money was the lifestyle where the two resided in harmony.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2004 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000.000

• Number of Houses Sold – 18
• Total Value – $124,951,000
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 6
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 9
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 0
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 0
• House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 0
• House Sales $10,000 to $10,999,000 – 2
• House Sales $11,000,000 to $11,999,000 – 1
• Average Price – $6,941,722
• liHighest Price – $11,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research: Top end auctions non–existent with the average prices showing a marginal increase. Sales volume down from 25 to 18 as was the total value sold from $157,900,250 to $124,951,000. Three sales in excess of $10,000,000.
Source: Domain Property Data

A strong possibility that in 2011, the highest sale will be below $10,000,000 – interesting to see what happened to top – end properties in Mosman during the global financial crisis. All revealed in next week’s edition.

Watch the Newspoll results next Tuesday – should her popularity continue to decline (to record lows) her position as prime minister will be all but untenable. I stand by my prediction that by Easter we will have yet another prime minister. Kristina Keneally gone next weekend and Gillard recording the lowest-ever approval rating as a prime minister in Australia’s political history.

Strong possiblity of a challenge next week – The Emperor (KRudd) wants to attend the Royal wedding.

Cheers ^__^

Take a look at look at this week’s property results which is indicative of what happens with new taxes and disasters

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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18.03.11Robert Simeon30 Comments »

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After all, we are in the greatest performing economy on the planet. Having sailed through and mostly ahead of the global financial crisis (GFC), our property markets once again find themselves positioned at the business–end, following a term of prolonged holding patterns. Ground conditions are perfect for take–off, with clear skies ahead and very little turbulence on the radar. Although what remains unclear, is who will be playing and who will be staying? The buzz word during the GFC was stimulus and it was merchant bankers who stimulated top–end property markets. There was no better example than Mosman, which remains the most expensive municipality (not suburb) in Australia. Bankers’ bonuses have been ‘rivers of gold’ for our bricks and mortar markets (merchant bankers remain our single largest subscribers) although their market engagement appears to have peaked in early 2008.

What is acutely clear, is that households have been actively paying down debt, instead of rolling it over and taking on more. Not that long ago, real estate agents made diary notes as to when the big banks were paying bonuses, which translated into the annual game of house trap!

Property markets move in mysterious ways (remember when the GST was introduced in 2000?). We saw property developers in Mosman gradually withdraw (especially with houses) because the additional ten per cent impacted their returns on investment and this once popular vocation became academic.

BUY PRINT

Pittwater weekenders were also very popular in the real estate indulgence markets where these properties failed the financial reconciliation of the GFC as the owners headed back home.

Another factor that needs to be considered when house values are flat, is that when additional acquisition costs (stamp duty) and selling costs are measured, vendors find themselves at breakeven. This was the norm, when purchasers were playing with additional income streams and stimulating markets with bonuses that can no longer be taken for granted. The following three graphs show the volume of stock on the market for houses and apartments in Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay, with houses showing much more consistent patterns.

MOSMAN

CREMORNE

NEUTRAL BAY

The Punch guide to our rich suburbs and big houses identifies a study conducted 2003–04 and 2007–08 which identified Mosman as having the highest average income in Australia, at $131,606 (the national average is $44,402). Considering that we are now post GFC and these results are more than two years old, it will be interesting to see if there are any significant changes to Sydney’s wealthiest the richest in the land.

Confidence has always provided the much needed oxygen to all financial markets so overseas travellers would be happy this week, to see the dollar bounces as economy worries fade. The question many are asking is ‘will confidence remain sky high’? Consumers turn cautious as outlooks clouds when the Westpac and Melbourne Institute released its index this week which showed that consumer sentiment fell 5 per cent in September to 113.2.

The consumer sentiment must have been taken before Julia Gillard announces cabinet which is just in time as parliament resumes in two weeks. The broadband debate will be riveting given Tony Abbott picks Turnbull to ‘demolish’ Gillard’s broadband plan. I wonder if he read skills shortage threatens Gillard’s NBN pledge when it was revealed the regional rollout could face a skills shortage. “The Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union estimates around 7,000 now have the competency to work on the NBN’s construction, but 25,000 technicians will be needed each year to build and operate the network over the period of its construction.” In the meantime, The Emperor is off to the USA for a sleepover at the White House and here are the other cabinet members.

The big banking announcement of the week was Basel III agreement announced. Global regulators are enforcing rules for banks to hold top–quality capital totalling seven per cent of their risk bearing assets (up from two per cent) to prevent any repeat of the recent international credit crisis. Australian banks are unfazed by tough new rules given they already qualify, with the ANZ sitting on 11.1 per cent, Commonwealth Bank 10.1 per cent, NAB 9.4 per cent and Westpac 8.6 per cent according to Deutsche Bank figures. Our banks are jumping back into the property market as lenders back throwing cash at buyers although our property bubble is too fit to burst. ‘A report last week from Moody’s Investor Service found that delinquency rates are still very low. For example 30+ days – past due delinquencies were 1.34 per cent in June compared to 1.39 per cent in May. That means that less than 2 per cent of loans are falling into arrears of 30 or more days past the due date’.

As stated previously, many Australian households are pre–paying their mortgages. Major banks report that over 55 per cent of mortgagees are ahead on their payment schedule, with 40 per cent, by more than a year. What a pity that U.S.A. banks were not in that position when subprime hit!

Here is a great one on one interview by our very own Steve Patrick with Glen Spratt from Mortgageport.

This video was produced by visualdomain

This week, we celebrated the 10th anniversary of the Sydney Olympic Games. Coincidentally, we celebrated the 10th birthday of Virtual Realty News. Ten years ago, when I sent out our first edition, it went to 38 subscribers (we still have a few of these originals) and look where we are today – $956,784,220 in online subscriber sales and Australia’s longest and most successful online newsletter. I am proud to say that over that time we have never missed a single edition. We have quite a few new initiatives in store and will be working very closely with visualdomain to produce fortnightly/monthly (still working that out) video editions of Virtual Realty News for those who don’t want to read them. Stay tuned for many more real estate industry firsts!

All will be revealed soon.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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17.09.10Robert Simeon4 Comments »

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ABC Online’s chief political writer Annabel Crabb described it as the greatest oral challenge of our generation given The Emperor’s “greatest moral challenge” no longer exists, or does it? On the menu we were forced to consume Gillard’s pork pies hard to resist then we had the hidden truth behind the PM’s ‘impromptu’ speech. The 2010 federal election spending spree based on a rigour in funding promises doesn’t count for much given we have all heard the term ‘the cheque’s in the mail’ although this Sunday, the elected party will have to face the morning after … where Treasury will start costing those policies on the run, Sydney’s Parramatta to Epping rail line will come under much greater scrutiny and the inevitable financial quarantine until the next federal election.

The most frightening policy is, without a doubt, the $43 billion (43 thousand million dollars) national broadband network which stands to become the greatest white elephant in Australian political history and the biggest financial commitment for an Australian government. Interest payments for this scheme presently stand at $4.500 million per week which prompted Malcolm Turnbull to write on Business Spectator Why the NBN will fail which prompted one comment on the blog: Thank you Malcolm. I think blind Freddy could see that can you publish it in Braille as well? The leading question: is Stephen Conroy conning us on the NBN?

Classic Tim Mooney this shot was captured last Friday when the big Southerly bringing about the cancellation of the Manly Ferries

BUY PRINT

Someone should tell Julia Gillard that the fastest growing network in Australia is wireless – tailor made for Blackberry, iPhone, iPad and laptops, none of which require cable. Latest data reveals Internet searches are the most popular online activity on mobile phones. Some 73 per cent of users conduct online searches by mobile phone now, compared with 30 per cent a year ago. This explains why we launched our mobile property website last week, a first in Mosman. (This is designed to be viewed through your mobile phone)

Gillard & Co have used the white technical elephant as the NBN ‘sandbags’ for marginal seats – we should all be very concerned about this roll- out, especially as the private sector wanted no financial involvement. In economic jargon, this equates to ‘no return on investment’.

The 2010 federal election has completely ignored housing policy initiatives, because they are too hard to fathom and here is why. Rents leap as race to find home intensifies “Forget population growth, we’re not even seeing the housing needed for existing people. There’s an extremely severe housing shortage unique to Sydney.”

Housing affordability nears record low the HIA – CBA Housing Affordability Index fell 9.1 per cent in the June quarter to be 32 per cent compared to the same period last year. HIA chief economist, Harley Dale, said ‘there has been a lack of commitment during the recent federal election campaign to address the substantial hurdles aspiring home owners face.” Then “key federal policy priorities need to include a program to reduce new housing costs such as inequitable taxes and charges, better planning approvals systems, and a dedicated federal housing and development ministry to coordinate policy across all sectors and levels of government,” Mr Dale said.

I don’t share the belief by some that housing bear warns again of bubble waiting to burst as investors who are claiming losses may leave the rental markets. According to Tax Office figures, the proportion of taxpayers who own rental property has risen from 6.5 per cent in 1989 to 13.5 per cent in 2009, two thirds of whom claim a loss on investments. The rental markets are problematic, which is why we sold our property management portfolio earlier this year, to focus on our core business which is, of course, selling properties.

Always a brilliant barometer for the Sydney top end property market is the prestige property market report by Dyson Austen Top 10 for the 2010 January – March quarter.  Our very own Steve Patrick posted the fourth biggest sale with 19 Morella Road Clifton Gardens. Seven sales were recorded in the Eastern Suburbs, two to Mosman and one to Manly – overall a positive result for the prestige property markets.

The comparative analysis from 2004 to 2010 is always fascinating where you will see that the top end is holding its own and we predict a conservative improvement in the quarters ahead. One should remember that when this end of the market starts registering anecdotal sales results, the rest of the market follows suit. We don’t foresee a boom market in the immediate future, but we do see renewed market confidence and sentiment.

Next week, we will publish the Dyson Austen Top 10 sales for the 2010 April – June quarter.

So off to the polls we go tomorrow to elect a federal government for the next three years and by all accounts, it will be close. My prediction is a narrow Tony Abbott victory simply because NSW is vehemently opposed to anything Labor – Why Labor is losing the west. NSW will only start to see rapid improvement with infrastructure when they have a Liberal prime minister and a Liberal premier which will happen in March 2011. The day Gillard stopped spinning: NSW indefensible where I’m sure she regrets her policy on the run announcement about the Parramatta to Epping rail spin which will never happen under the current regime.

Who would have thought that not since 1931, we could witness just the second incumbent government removed after just the one elected term?  Who would have thought we may witness history where two prime ministers were removed in the one term?

Maybe Australia is moving forward!  Voters in Queensland and NSW will determine the outcome.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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20.08.10Robert Simeon8 Comments »

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With interest, I noted that Fort Fumble (Federal Government) released its Henry Tax Review – Australia’s future tax system just hours before the Logies and just two days before Reserve Bank of Australia announced rates rise again. Here is what governor Glenn Stevens had to say Monetary Policy Decision.

Much like the decision to withdraw its disastrous and totally incompetent Home Insulation program which again, was conveniently announced just 30 minutes after Torah Bright won gold at the Vancouver Winter Olympics in the half pipe. As they say timing is everything! Tempers flare as Wayne Swan clashes with shock jock on air this was Gold. Then Rudd lied to us, say insulation installers in Parliament house protest. “In February the Prime Minister met a group of installers protesting outside Parliament House in Canberra and said he would restart the home insulation program by June 1.” Alas, “Courageous Kev” Rudd to defy Senate request to give evidence on home insulation program – snakes and ladders?

The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) is now running with just three policies Health, Henry and the Building Education Revolution (BER) as the rest have now (conveniently) been placed in his growing recycle bin. Both Health and Henry are less than one month old and the BER is copping plenty of flak audit slams Rudd’s primary school building program expect that to be binned also. These decisions are not just a case of ‘missing in action’, rather, policies with distractions which sends a clear message that our elected Federal Labor Government requires more stimulus to its own intelligece quotient. BER audit finds problem but ‘value for money’ of individual projects outside scope… surprise surprise. The Mad Monk (Tony Abbott) also marked the report BER delivers a fail mark.

Having been in receipt of the Henry Tax Review since late December 2009 (five months later) and Fort Fumble does it again – Did Kev and Wayne even read Ken’s Review? On Business Spectator Alan Kohler wrote It’s politics, not reform “It is a great document – probably the best tax review ever produced in this country. Amazingly, the government has almost ignored it. After five months of leaking and spinning since the report was handed to him. The Treasurer has picked up exactly 1.75 of its 138 recommendations, or a bit over 1 per cent.” Total: 1.75 accepted; 136.25 rejected or put off without any transparency. Why, am I not surprised? Rudd’s election rebate where the Henry Review brings higher superannuation, small business changes but no tax fit. Henry tax review dumped into the dustbin then Terry McCann’s explanation “Kevin Rudd is running scared – clammy palms, hair bristling on the back of his neck, whole body shivering: scared, scared, scared.”

Now it gets even more interesting – “rather than release flagged changes on savings tax and simplifying tax returns, the Government has saved those changes to release later in the year, most likely to use in the run – up to this year’s federal election.” Wayne Swan leaves door open to more tax hits from Henry tax review – From the mines to the banks, The Emperor’s ‘fat tax’ grab goes on.

BUY PRINT

Charlie Aitken wrote on Under the Southern Cross “Robin Rudd and his merry men; banks will be next; switch to the USA. I just believe Australian banks have a giant target painted on them and as we get closer to an Australian Federal election later this year that Robin Rudd and his merry men will announce some sort of super tax on bank profits. I am very, very suspicious that the bank sector avoided any sort of punishment in the Henry Review. Ask yourself what the biggest vote winner in Australia is? Yep, you guessed it taxing banks.” Such a move to tax would remove bonuses which in turn would decimate top – end property markets. Australia is now entering the Rudd Financial Crisis – nothing achieved when policies deceive.

On Business Spectator Alan Kohler wrote Rudd’s mask is off “Kevin Rudd has done something unforgiveable in politics, and he will not be forgiven either by his party or the electorate. He has allowed the disguise to fall.” Then “the latest effort is the Resources Super Profits Tax – a national embarrassment. Those who don’t even understand why it’s a bad tax are asking: why do we need the money? We understand the need for the community to get a fair share etc, but Australia is the best performing economy in the world, so what have you guys done with all the money that you jeopardise our most successful industry to raise more?”  And “there will now be an early election – probably July. What does Kevin Rudd stand for? He is becoming an opposition leader in government, simply opposing the other side and engaged in nothing but marketing.”

The Emperor should be cleaning up his own backyard first – Kevin Rudd’s Department of Hot Air costing taxpayers $90 million. Hi – ho, hi – ho it’s off to health he goes! Australia went into euphoric celebration mode when Julia Gillard announced: Rudd will lead Labor to election. Making unpopular decisions part of my job: Rudd obviously The Emperor has policies confused with performance. In time we get the nasties – but not just yet so have a listen to what John Stone had to say to Alan Jones on 2GB about the Henry Tax Review.

Mining tax like communist policy – Palmer on Australia’s greatest ever tax reform all 1.75 per cent. This comment on Crikey by Niall Clugston, grabbed my attention. “While the criticism of Kevin Rudd’s caution is fair, the contrast with the 1980(s) is exaggerated. The Hawke – Keating reforms were part of a global crusade of privatisation and deregulation spearheaded by the Iron Lady, Margaret Thatcher. Today there is no sweeping change of economic orthodoxy. Nor is the Pale Imitator who inhabits the Lodge likely to receive any international guidance from the incompetently honest Gordon Brown or the temporary messiah, Barack Obama.” Ouch!

Again on Business Spectator Robert Gottliebsen wrote A mammoth capital strike looms “At this stage it’s just private words to selected journalists and few decisions have been made, but Australia is on the brink of the greatest capital strike in its history and one of the largest ever seen in the world. In the vicinity of $100 billion of resource projects that were almost certain to go ahead are now headed for mothballing until the resources tax is either abandoned or severely modified. If the private words to me and other journalists are converted to action and a new mining capital strike is launched, then almost certainly Kevin Rudd will not win the next election. The economies of Queensland, WA and South Australia would be decimated.” And finally “and in the middle, we have a series of blunders led by insulation and education building and botched emissions trading scheme. Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them.”

Based on a capital strike trade deficit surges to more than $2bn where Australia’s trade balance remained in deficit for 11 straight months, a strike would be of catastrophic proportions.

Aussies go cold on Kevin Rudd with industry predictions that The Emperor’s resource tax will kill the golden goose prompting our miners fury at double tax burden. Coalition MPs will decide stance on mining tax next week which will be interesting given admirers suffer a Rudd awakening.

As quick as a flash first miner scraps project on tax concerns a fait accompli given logic and political reality collide. But, what about super idea, but hardly tax reform back to Business Spectator – Twiggy’s root and branch shakedown. “The sharemarket has delivered a brutal assessment of who it thinks were the winners and losers from the Henry tax review – and mining entrepreneurs are in the gun. A staggering $12 billion was wiped off the value of Australian mining shares.” Australia has moved from the global financial crisis to a Rudd financial crisis. You can trust politicians … to do exactly what’s best for them then “I’m going and now I’m back” Malcolm Turnbull wrote Memo to Sir Kevin: a brave decision, Prime Minister and where it hurts us all Super hit by resources sell – off and Rio Tinto shelves billions in projects. Common sense prevails Coalition to oppose mining profits tax.

Julia Gillard denies misleading parliament on BER cost blowout another $1.700 billion now needs to be found as it was underfunded based on the initial $12.400 billion allocation. Much of the work is yet to start – auditor rocks basis of BER stimulus boost. Obviously, a distraction as Gillard denies eyeing Rudd’s job. It just gets worse!

Property markets too have been in the spotlight this week.

Housing market will implode warns Edward Chancellor Edward is no relation to the Sydney Morning Herald property editor Jonathan Chancellor. Australia is in the midst of an unsustainable housing bubble that could burst at any time, warns the man who predicted the global credit bust of 2007. We will see busts in the First Home Buyers Grant (otherwise known as the First Home Sellers Grant) as they buy back when mortgage defaults escalate due to rising cash rates. Another rate rise, another blow for PM and economists warn that more pain is on the way – the raw nerve being rate rise to crush 90,000 families.
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Not wasting any time the big four banks match Reserve’s rate rise and the housing industry blast RBA rate rise obviously they are not observing Australia’s inflation genie. Then the obvious Rudd attacks interest rate hikes by ‘greedy’ banks –  of course he is not. Although, he is on the springboard about to attempt yet another back flip as he may capitulate to miners appropriate that he is digging Australia into an almighty hole.

The most naive commentary of the week banks safe from govt tax torch, Westpac: dumb and dumber. In just over twelve months, Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan, Lindsay Tanner and Julia Gillard have transformed a A$19.700 billion surplus into a A$32.100 billion deficit and 2010 is an election year. The majority of policies are now languishing in their much owned, self – imposed recycle bin.

Incompetence personified – where the inheritance went down the gurgler in the blink of an eye!

We welcome mortgageport to our online media platform to brand their home loan products on our website – and the official sponsor of Virtual Realty News – Mosman’s most accessed real estate website. Compare your rates and give them a call on 02 9466 8200

Next week, (unless Fort Fumble has another policy implosion) we will explain why the cash rate still has another 2.00 per cent of increases ahead. A clue: Fort Fumble and Fort Crumble contuinue to inflate that inflation genie. Tell us what you think on the blog – is The Emperor right with his Resources Super Profits Tax? Will he be re-elected or will he end up in his recycle bin too?

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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7.05.10Robert Simeon8 Comments »

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A hypothetical Mosman forecast: (not to be read by the faint heated) – walking your Labrador could soon see you walking on private property. Remember the “once upon a time” analogies? Time brings change – and those picturesque ‘rivers of gold’ (public sanctuaries) are a great starting place.

Sydney population to top 6m in 2036 according to a report compiled by the NSW Planning Department. It forecasts a 40 per cent gain from 4.3 million in 2006. Based on data compiled from the 2006 census, the population of NSW will increase to 9.1 million which is a scary thought, when Fort Crumble (NSW Government) does not even come close to meeting present day planning demands for infrastructure, transport, schools, hospitals and roads which are currently in gridlock. More importantly Fort Crumble is broke!

So let’s look into the property crystal ball Sydney suburbs ready to boom Fort Crumble has turned its attention now to transport in the south–west, rather than the north–west. The population of the top 10 local areas, will increase by more than 50 per cent – Camden, Liverpool, Burwood, Auburn, Wollondilly, Sydney, Wyong, Campbelltown, Baulkham Hills, and Strathfield. So south-west is up by 113 per cent and north–west up 52 per cent. Metro cost more than Labor admitted which should come as no surprise. To meet these unprecedented demands, governments on all three tiers will jump into a dash for cash given they are all entrenched in budget deficit. And don’t forget the huge injection of green shoots for the building industry, the economy and increased tax receipts.

BUY PRINT
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Middle Head is arguably Australia’s most sought after real estate and Mosman’s “Jewel in the Crown”.
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So what can we expect? The greatest sell–off of (open space) land for residential development and Mosman (given its abundance of foreshore land) would become a major revenue raiser for funding sustainability. The ‘posh’ will utter, gosh! A strong possibility that Mosman sea scapes could resemble those from Whale Beach to Palm Beach“. Of course governments will say ‘it is all in the name of economic progress’. Simply put – we may believe we are the custodians of open space and even though we don’t have title to this lifestyle privilege, money talks and many areas that are untouched, could lose their virginity!

We now find that one in four NSW councils is on the brink of being unable to pay for essential services – Gone to pot: councils on brink of slashing services. We are already hearing murmurs that some Councils are looking at selling off public golf courses and replacing them with housing estates.

The Municipality of Mosman (currently) has just under 5000 houses so it would be fair to assume that just like other growth areas it too must expand by up to 25 per cent (another 1250 homes). For this to happen (hypothetically) we would see a new housing estate created on Georges Heights and Middle Head which are prime development areas as to Bradleys Head and Clifton Gardens

Cliff top land value sales using Burran and Hopetoun Avenues comparables on Middle Head would deliver sales from $7,000,000 to $15,000,000 + per block (let’s average each block out at $10,000,000): the governments would love these revenues to assist funding pressures. Working on the premise that HMAS Penguin would become a vacant block from Chowder Bay through Middle Head to Balmoral vacant land sales would deliver hundreds and hundreds of multi – million dollar sales. Not to forget also, a huge injection to Mosman Council revenues, courtesy of additional Council rates from subdivisions that could create another 1000 + houses. It may never happen – but it would be a brave person to rule out such a brazen move (otherwise called progress!)

The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) announced his newly created portfolio of Minister for Population this week and as quick as flash Population Minister Tony Burke says migrants should go bush. An interesting debut? Tony Abbott backs a debate on population levels ”Let’s face it; Sydney and Melbourne in particular are choking on their own traffic.” Whilst a population debate is necessary, we are not hearing anything about (more importantly) an infrastructure debate!

Malcolm Turnbull prompted Macquarie Street whispers, when he announced that he was leaving Federal politics A plea to Malcolm Turnbull – your State needs you wrote The Punch. “If anyone can smash his way through the paralysis which grips NSW politics it is Turnbull. In the absence of a mercy rule, NSW voters currently face a battle between the legally blonde and the legally bland. There’s Kristina Keneally, who despite assuring us she’s “nobody’s puppet, nobody’s girrrrrl,” was slotted in by the factional bosses in a vacuous marketing exercise which has nothing to do with policy and everything to do with personality.” Clue: NSW Labor out to buy next election.

The Emperor came in for a touch – up Kevin Rudd’s $3.2 bn health and hospital funding favours Labor seats and Rudd’s new challenge: fix schools so the pains continued Blunders becoming harder to defend and Schools chief orders checks on 260 projects.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) notched up its fifth 25 basis – point rate hike in seven months taking the cash rate to 4.25 per cent – Good times sting as interest rates rise. Given we are in an election year ,The Emperor would have been somewhat perplexed when he read Housing stress may bring political pain. Economic side – kick Wayne Swan delivered these political pearlers “I know that is cold comfort for a lot of families and a lot of people in businesses,” he said. Then “rates are now at the level that they were when the Liberal Party imposed on Australia 10 rate rises in a row so rates are still at historically low levels.”

Wayne, so what you are saying is that the last five interest rate rises are your doing, given that your Government is in power? It has been well documented that the cash rate will return to 5.50 per cent so, Wayne, that would then make it 10 all. Doh!

Tourism Australia announced its new tag line There’s nothing like it superseding “Where the bloody hell are you?” Why do they continually write about politicians?

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So do you think our treasured foreshore reserves will be turned into a residential subdivision? What would such a plan do to top – end prices? Remember, this is Australia’s most prized land. See you on our blog as I suspect this topic may break our previous record number of comments.

Subscriber sales jumped to $938,179,220 this week. We exchanged $31,000,000 in just three days, setting the highest sale in Mosman for 2010. Thank you – subscribers.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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9.04.10Robert Simeon8 Comments »

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Without a shadow of a doubt that confusion is generated by our dominant media companies that consistently promote zoom and boom for home price growth in 2010 and beyond. You can’t really blame them, given that the global financial crisis (GFC) positioned their real estate business revenues on a hiding to nothing. We are six weeks into the 2010 market and this week’s results were mixed.

External coal – face market examinations can deliver dire consequences where our property markets are mapped on anecdotal market results. Simply put: our property housing market remains a bit skittish and definitely improving. The media companies may well be right although – only time (not crystal balls) will tell. When media companies talk the real estate market up one would be dumb and dumber to assume that vendors are not upwardly repositioning their greatest asset.

In this week’s edition of Virtual Realty News we identify – what’s going up and what’s going down. It’s a week by week proposition given last week the adjusted auction clearance rate in Mosman was 77 per cent then, this week, it dropped to 38 per cent? Next week will probably be a different story.

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Admiralty House is arguably Australia’s most prized real estate holding as identified by Tim Mooney when he captured this amazing shot this week. Hopefully, The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) did not have Pink Batts installed in his Sydney harbourside residence – a question never tabled in Parliament House?

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Tim Mooney Photography

Housing market shows signs of cooling – a frustrating report given that in January (every year) Australians are on holidays. Every year, our two quietest months are January and July, “The Bureau of Statistics says only 667 NSW residents took out construction loans in January, down from a high of 1,270 in September. “ September is a peak month so not exactly an accurate market critique.

Just look at our share market for a clue – weaker economies leave us in their wake.” Australia’s share market has been stalled for six months and has performed worse than many countries that are in much poorer economic shape. Twelve months after the depths of the GFC, the All Ordinaries Index is up 54 per cent from its low, but has improved just 4 per cent since September. In contrast, US shares have climbed 60 per cent since March 2009 and 9 per cent since September despite a deep recession and unemployment at 10 per cent.” A possible answer could be investors grab bigger share of home loans the grab for their largest share of housing loans since 1994.

On the flip – side business confidence at a four month high but growth remains below the highs seen in late 2009, a survey shows. The National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index gained four points to plus – 19 points in February. This was the surveys highest level since November 2009 when it also touched + 19 points, which just so happened to be a seven year high. What Australians spent money on during the GFC and why, in most countries it means bunkering down however, Australians went in the opposite direction when in 2009 we spent $5.000 billion on boats, bikes and caravans. In 2008 we spent $3.500 billion!

This is the telling graph given Australian home prices surged 13.6 per cent in 2009. What many are missing, is exactly what triggered the recovery. Earlier this week I was chatting on the phone with a Virtual Realty News subscriber who also happens to oversee one of Australia’s largest mortgage books. He pointed out that as first home buyers entered the market they drove prices up and the recipients then went out and purchased more expensive property. In January this year home loans slump most in a decade falling by 7.9 per cent which was the largest fall since June 2000. “The number of first – home buyer loans as a share of total borrowing edged down from 21 per cent of the total in December to 20.5 per cent in January 2010. Home loans for new houses dropped 13.2 per cent to 2,146 in January, while loans for established dwellings dropped 8.2 per cent to 42,303. The true real estate market grows organically and I don’t support government cash hand outs to entice purchasers, knowing that cash rates will continue to go up – not down.

On the flip – side RBA warns home prices could go higher. Assistant governor Phillip Lowe said if the nation’s population growth remained strong, more of the economy would need to be devoted towards housing, presenting challenges both to labour markets and governments. He must have read last week’s edition as Fort Fumbles (Federal government) have our builders constructing school halls instead of working on bricks and mortar. Liberal backbencher Malcolm Turnbull wrote an interesting piece in The Sydney Morning Herald this week The government throws prudence – and billions – to the wind. Great to see our Virtual Realty News commentaries remain a week ahead of our elected politician’s viewpoints.

We all share an obsession for Sydney’s top end of town property results so here is the Dyson Austen Top 10 Prestige Residential Survey for Quarter 3 – 2009 and Quarter 4 – 2009. The Sydney top – end barometer and the results identify our markets road to recovery.
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Dyson Austen Top 10 – July to September 2009

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RWM led this recovery when we posted $63 million worth of sales in June 2009 and grabbed top spot with the sale of Lodge Road Cremorne (this is the very first time that a Cremorne home has attained poll position). The vendors are subscribers. This survey identifies that the Top 10 was up 7.2 per cent from the previous quarter.

Now we see (with the published results for the December quarter 2009) the obvious upward movement as the economy recovers. The previous quarter’s top sale would have come in at position five. The Top 10 jumped up another 12.2 per cent when compared to the previous quarter so it will be intriguing to see what the first quarter of 2010 delivers. What we see here first hand is our property market recovery from the GFC first hand. For mine: the top end identifies the exact strength of our markets because it is the indulgence market that sets market sentiment. Just as interesting, when Australia was in the midst of the GFC this market all but shut down – a clue. The first home buyers stole the limelight with cash government incentives, marinated with record low rates. Remember also, that The Emperor removed foreign ownership constraints when he dismantled the Foreign Investment Review Board – Top Sydney properties snapped up.
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Dyson Austen Top 10 – October to December 2009

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Great commentaries on our blog regarding last week’s edition. The Henry Tax Review keeps grabbing attention for most obvious reasons. The Emperor was just too busy to release tax review. He was probably engrossed in reading review ‘hollow’ with no income tax re-jig”.

We went further a field for those who love paying tax and are happy to present The Unfinished Business of Australian Tax Reform which is an amazing report by Robert Carling. I loved this quote “Do we really want more redistribution? Don’t we already have too much, in that policy is paying too much attention to re – slicing the economic pie at the expense of making it larger”?

The same could be said about the Federal Budget Stimulus.

Back again next week and we’ll chat further with you on our blog.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

This week’s RWM open for inspections Click Here

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12.03.10Robert Simeon5 Comments »

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Twelve months ago in our final edition of Virtual Realty News for 2008 I wrote – “The first six months of 2009 will be hard (not necessarily harder) and I believe the next six months will see a mild rebound leading to much stronger property markets!” As it turned out this prediction was one hundred per cent correct and in June 2009 we posted $63,000,000 in sales – the rest (just like that edition) is now history. Despite an avalanche of doomsday prophecies (and there were plenty) the missing link for the prophets was that they simply underestimated the power of the Internet and smart business models.

Every day, we spend an intoxicating amount of time in front of a computer – reading, writing and communicating. Just weeks prior to our final edition in 2008 I wrote – “I have said it before and I stand by my previous comments that in the recession of the early 1990’s there was no Internet and no electronic information highway that today, has played a dominant role in the recovery process.” Once informed, the decision making process is activated – the dominance of online during the global financial crisis is now a legacy that will continue to grow and dominate.

Some would suggest that it was a stimulus package but I would argue that those prophets would not know the difference between ‘Word’ and ‘Outlook’. Politicians make a habit of wording their outlook differently, based (more often) on spamming the minds of the electorate with nonsense.

The hive of activity as the Boxing Day – Sydney to Hobart race is fast approaching

www.timmooneyphotography.com

So what are our predictions for the Mosman property market in 2010? Don’t worry if you blink, as it won’t be moving that fast although we see strong signs of renewed confidence. Housing prices will increase but we see no need to panic because we see upward growth in property values – that is growth (not boom). The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced this week that lending for the construction of new homes rose dramatically in October increasing by 5.7 per cent. New home loans have now officially increased in 13 of the last 14 months – population explosion?

Certainly this argument is greatly assisted by the sale of a Perth mansion this week for a new Australian record of $57.500 million dollars. RP Data wrote on its blog this week – “The improvement in equities markets and business conditions has prompted many top end buyers to venture back into the market. For a while there were many bargains to be had – premium housing markets took the biggest value dive of any sector around the country in 2008 and now seeing the biggest jump. Values in the top end are now once again at record levels, having risen 2.4 per cent higher than the previous peak recorded back in February 2008. On an annual basis many of these premium suburbs have recorded some of the largest falls in median house prices however, it is clear with confidence returning many areas are set to bounce back or already doing so.”

Politicians and banks will provide great fodder for Virtual Realty News in 2010.

It has already started with this week’s Westpac “banana debacle” when it stupidly sent customers an email justifying its recent interest rate hike. Its rationale was to compare Westpac as the business selling banana smoothies – too much egg nog I thought, so have a look.

Maybe this graph presents a more accurate positioning from the “Bananas in Pyjamas” who must think all their customers are in a slumber with no Internet access.

Fort Fumble – Federal Government

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Fascinated by spending other people’s money (tax payers) whilst consumed with the belief that Australia still requires its stimulus package, The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) is currently holidaying in northern Europe. His preferred mode of transport has been letting him down – given Air Force One has ongoing mechanical problems – much like our economy.

Co-pilot Wayne Swan needs to masticate more, because his ears keep popping. As was pointed out in Letters to the Editor, this week in The Daily Telegraph. “Treasurer Wayne Swan fools no one with his ongoing bleating about banks raising interest rates much more than the Reserve Bank. What’s he doing to restore the competitive pressures that have collapsed in the financial services sector under his brief watch? While the Government discriminates against smaller financial institutions in its guarantees for wholesale funding, his utterances are simply deceptive posturing.” The co-pilot did approve the acquisition of St George bank to Westpac so have a banana smoothie on the house.

The Mad Monk is waiting in the wings although that too, may be an aborted takeoff with plenty of Liberals in the hanger. Malcolm Turnbull will probably head back to merchant banking where approval ratings will improve considerably.

Fort Crumble – NSW Government

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Where does one start – the most incompetent governing body in Australia’s history – the ‘violent crumble’ of all governments?

Robert Gottliebsen recently wrote on Business Spectator “We’re scaring off housing investors. Governments, whether they be in Canberra or in the states, often pass legislation without ever understanding its consequences.” He is referring to our housing crisis and talking about property investor taxes. “This means that if you hold an average investment property in Sydney and this pushes you over the $376,000 land tax limit, it makes no sense to invest in another. The annual holding cost figures look roughly like this: land tax 1.6 per cent; rates/water 1.0 per cent; mortgage interest 7.00 per cent plus; and maintenance/agent 1.0 per cent. That’s represents total costs of 10.6 per cent of your investment.” Rents will go through the roof over the next twenty four months.

Thoroughly enjoyed reading an article this week in The Daily Telegraph – NSW leads economic rebound. “NSW is leading the national economic recovery with forecasts of a miraculous turnaround in growth figures in the coming year. The State’s Budget is also expected to return to surplus a year earlier than expected, with a $872 million surplus expected in 2010 – 2011.” Technically it was broke well before the global financial crisis although this did not restrict the excitement of newly elected Premier Kristina “doodle dandy” Keneally “who has absolutely no tertiary qualifications” from shrieking (with accent) that the NSW Budget was “back in the black”. Oh dear!

No doubt “doodle dandy” would have been suitably impressed to learn that Nathan “no strings attached” Rees, brilliantly negotiated the sale of our three Manly JetCats that cost NSW taxpayers $3 million – with the purchaser flogging them off shore for more millions. Nathan “no strings” out, and Kristina “doodle dandy” in – so much to look forward to next year.

It has been our absolute pleasure delivering Virtual Realty News to your inbox each week and we are now into our tenth year (never missed an edition). I remain very confident that in 2010 we will be the very first Australian real estate agency to break the magic $1 billion in subscriber sales – currently at $887,154,220.

Special thanks to the aerial photographic gymnast of the sky Tim Mooney for his amazing photographs – a weekly highlight (for us) to explore his vast library of photography.

We thank you for your patronage. Defamation suits have been interesting and engaging (it’s just that I am an advocate for freedom of speech). The audit of our books by The Office of State Revenue was a highlight which re-inforced the fact that Virtual Realty News keeps annoying Forts Fumble and Crumble.

We will return to your inbox in late – January 2010 and go (weekly) all the way through to December 2010. It’s a tough job – but somebody has to do it!

Merry Christmas and have a brilliant, happy and prosperous New Year.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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11.12.09Robert Simeon10 Comments »

My curiosity was stirred last week by M Jackson, who said that, (subject to approval) the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) may allow you to have a punt on our property markets. Described as a world first, ASX punters can take out a derivative contract based on Rismark/RP Data market indices which are in turn quoted daily to the share market. I did laugh when I read ‘daily’ – try months after the event if real estate agents decide to block data sales access.

Back to M Jackson’s comment on last week’s blog – “Contrary to popular myth, the water in Australian plugholes goes down the same way as everywhere else. So, too, the housing market. Figures from the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday showed that prices in eight capital cities were down by a record 2.2 per cent between December and March. The fourth quarterly fall in a row brought the year – on – year rate of decline to almost 7 per cent.”

Rismark/RP Data reported national dwelling values increased by 1.52 per cent for March 2009. Then the ABS reports a 2.2 per cent decline. Somebody got it wrong – but hey, take a punt?

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Back to M Jackson’s comment – “Gross rentals yields of about 3 per cent, meanwhile, are near all – time lows; if houses were stocks, they’d be trading on wobbly price/earnings multiples of more than 30 times. Unemployment data, to be released on Thursday, may show a rise to almost 6 per cent, the highest level in six years. Job ads fell again in April. Mortgage flows are sputtering. The props are falling away. Currently the SFE is constructing a tradeable index on Australian housing, which should be completed by and ready by August 2009. I can’t wait to go short. If there was one specific to the Lower North Shore in Sydney. I would have double the size positions.”

I thank M Jackson for his input and look forward to reading more responses to our blogs.

The Global Financial Crisis was brought about by global banking institutions investing in (probable and possible) markets based on high debt ratios – otherwise known as gambling. The process for aggregating property data has always been flawed – highlighted by the simple fact that the ABS and Rismark/RP Data constantly report conflicting property data positions. Definitely not an each – way bet!

Consider the property market reality, if ASIC approves the trade derivative contracts and the Australian real estate agencies automatically cease providing all sales data to all the aggregators? It would then be one, two, three, four, five and six months until such data became available. Just who would punt on such irregularities? The data aggregators don’t act in harmony with real estate agencies in Australia where there is not the slightest possibility of any change – anytime soon. I would predict (and support) a total real estate data black–out.

After all, we act for our vendors (first and foremost) and are under absolutely no obligation to report sales data that aggregator’s then on-sell to institutions. One only has to look at the banning of shorting banking stocks to observe that this is conducive to assisting economic growth in a recession. The real estate industry is the largest employer in Australia where our economy is only in a sound position because our banking system is world’s best practise and world’s best profits too.

Simply put: real estate agencies would cease reporting sales and rental data and agents would then lengthen the odds quite considerably. If such a market was created where (just say) you could bet on the Mosman market – I would hope that collectively, Mosman agencies would turn such a proposal into a blank canvas with data support.

From “bricks and mortar” to “punt and hunt” derivative markets! The only people that I can see making money from these proposed markets are actually the real estate agents. Is this Australia’s financial version of subprime – a buy position without actually owning a house? Short on being exact and very long on accuracy.

I thought Malcolm Turnbull’s Budget response to be lame (to say the least). However, with the possibility of a double dissolution around the corner, it makes sense to keep ones “powder dry”. As one subscriber said this week, “depending upon the government for your future financial security, is like hiring an accountant who is a compulsive gambler!”

Ruddy Fantastic and Wayne Swans’ missing word disorder’ may have been cured this week when it was revealed on www.smh.com.au “It’s been suggested that Kevin Rudd would not utter the phrase “$300 billion” for fears his words will be used in coalition advertisements during the next election campaign.” So much for “sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me.” Then “Mr Rudd said Australia’s debt would peak at “around 200, or gross debt at about 300” in 2013 – 14. Now journalists are on to this political spin game and will play this to their hearts’ content. Very petty, although Australia’s deficit needs much more than petty cash as we will continually be reminded for many years to come.

Australia’s housing prices are at their most affordable level in seven years and in the March quarter the Housing Industry Association – Commonwealth Bank First Home Buyer Affordability Index recorded a 14.6 per cent increase. The average home loan fell by 11 per cent from $2056 a month to $1831 last year.

Despite confidence levels still being down, car sales in April were up on the March figures. Just as interesting is that in Mosman on www.domain.com.au there are only 118 houses/semis (I removed double entries, apartments, and out of area listings from the listed 135) available for sale which is an all time low in available stock levels. This will only get tighter over winter given that purchasers are now engaging with vendors.

This week’s video is a brilliant story about the annual Balmoral Burn Race Day which happens next Sunday on May 31. The Balmoral Burn Sponsors’ Dinner takes place on Friday May 29, 2009 so watch the video for more details. Keeping in the theme, this week’s aerial photograph by Tim Mooney Photography, highlights the best beach on our planet and in the background Awaba Street – the Balmoral Burn tread mill. Congratulations to Phil and Julie Kearns who started this brilliant fundraising event back in 2001. Given that I have won the race three times now, I am no longer eligible to compete.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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22.05.09Robert Simeon8 Comments »