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Little wonder Julia Gillard’s Fort Fumble finds itself in such a dire position on her first anniversary as Prime Minister. No candle or cake cutting (sigh of relief), even worse no partying: Julia Gillard reveals – why I knifed Kevin Rudd. Twelve months on, Julia Gillard and Labor slump to new lows which would explain why, constant internal bickering is the real explanation it’s not personal, it’s  policy – why Labor is flatlining.

When I read Julia Gillard outlines her plans for survival I could not help but notice her quote about the reasoning behind Kevin Rudd’s knifing “it became clear to me in the crucible of those days that the Labor caucus wanted a different path and a different leader.” A contradiction of terms (maybe) as Julia Gillard tells caucus to be patient when the Fairfax – Nielsen poll revealed that Kevin Rudd preferred as ALP leader: poll. The party faithful (tongue in cheek) found very few positives for Gillard in horror poll.

Alas, a year on, Rudd would do things differently which was met with a somewhat tinge of sobriety as the faceless waiters dispensed caucus refreshments consisting only of lemon, lime and bitterness? No thanks, Kevin. Party politics suggests absolutely no renaissance period for their reborn leader unworkable. Expectations of many more lemon twists: given leadership talk is killing Labor, says Peter Beattie, as party rallies behind PM.

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This is a one – off aerial capture of Royal Sydney Golf Club at Rose Bay. The new swimming pool is ready for summer although I’m not sure what they’re going to construct in the vacant area below it?

Our invaluable Virtual Realty News subscriber mail suggests Julia Gillard has six months to turn the polls around given the Labor Party finds itself at odds (not great ones either). Betstar have Julia Gillard at $1.65 to lead Labor to the next election with Assistant Treasurer Bill (shortening) Shorten next at $4, Climate Change pioneer Greg Combat (I meant Combet) and Kevin (scissor hands) Rudd at $7.50. Little wonder consumer confidence levels are in rapid decline, or should that be a rapid response to economic concerns?

The rise and rise of the Aussie dollar has appreciated 21.82 per cent during the last twelve months which explains why the expats have all but withdrawn from our real estate markets. Manufacturing and retail have been hit much harder which then resonates through to consumer confidence in the Australian economy. The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 2.6 per cent in June from 103.9 per cent in May to 101.2 in June. Trouble looms on the home front which is a natural progression moving on from consumer confidence declines – what remains to be seen is which real estate markets will remain in a holding pattern and those that will endure declines.

Winter chills price growth amid subdued auction sales reveals that in May 2011, the average discount rate for properties was 6.4 per cent, compared to 5.7 per cent in May last year. There is a twenty five per cent increase in the number of properties for sale in Sydney as compared to this time last year – I will get to Mosman shortly. During the first four months of 2011 only 8,271 home loans were approved for first – home buyers in NSW. This was the lowest number of loans recorded for the same period since 2004 and is sixty per cent less than the 20,982 first – home buyers recorded in the first four months of 2009.

Jonathan Chancellor’s Property Observer wrote this week home buyers and investors more hawkish than economists – 83 per cent of consumers expect rate rises over the next year, but that’s down on the 91 per cent recorded in February, according to the latest Westpac Melbourne index of Consumer Sentiment. This explains why the Reserve Bank plays a game of wait and see as household finances dive to the worst in at least 10 years.

I love all this data as it allows Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) to sell our market via our online technologies. If you are a purchaser (not just in Mosman) you are correct in thinking a property crash is gaining momentum. If a real estate agency does not use a blog in this modern era it simply identifies how behind the time their business model is – given it is imperative that our demographic market remains educated about what is actually happening in our Mosman market. The real reason why real estate agents don’t have blogs is that they can talk but struggle with writing – criteria just as important given selling is not 100 per cent based on speech.

Margie Blok wrote in Title Deeds last week – Mosman Millions and Modern marvel sold which prompted me to do a Mosman house sales analysis from 1 January to 23 June 2011. To make matters interesting I extrapolated data for the same period in 2010 and 2007 which was prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Remember there is a twenty five per cent increase in properties for sale in Sydney presently – as compared to this time last year.

Data provided from Domain Property Data and RWM Research this data is from 1 January to 23 June for 2007/2010 and 2011.

Mosman – Total Number of Houses for Sale

• 2007 – 232
• 2010 – 208 (a 10 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)
• 2011 – 161 (a 31 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)

Total Mosman Houses Sold

• 2007 – 211
• 2010 – 183 (a 13 per cent reduction)
• 2011 – 118 (a 44 per cent reduction)

RWM Research: The Mosman housing market is actually defying the trending seen in other Sydney suburbs given the available volume of houses for sale is actually contracting.

Total Value of Mosman Houses Sold

• 2007 – $565,505,720
• 2010 – $464,616,550
• 2011 – $198,296,000*

*denotes that 49 houses have entered a zero sale price – the Total Value for 2011 is still months away from final determination.

Adjusted Mosman Auction Clearance Rate

• 2007 – 40 per cent
• 2010 – 35 per cent
• 2011 – 32 per cent

RWM Research: Mosman has one of the lowest if not the lowest auction clearance rates in Sydney.

Mosman Median House Price

• 2007 – $2,260,000
• 2010 – $2,200,000
• 2011 – $2,100,000*

*denotes that 49 houses have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Median House Price is still months away from final determination.

Mosman Average House Price

• 2007 – $2,680,121
• 2010 – $2,685,644
• 2011 – 2,792,901*

*denotes that 49 houses have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Average House Price is still months away from final determination.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 104
• Number of houses on the market this week – 97
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 99
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 99

RWM Research: The total number of houses for sale dropped below 100 this week which would have to be the lowest number available in living memory

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week –  17
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 38
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 33

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 12
• Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 63
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 65

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Now you have the most exacting explanation of where the Mosman housing market currently sits.

It is precisely twelve months to the day that ‘The Emperor’ Kevin Rudd felt the long blade of Julia Gillard’s knife given “he had lost his way”. The Emperor even had to cancel his one year anniversary which was brilliantly captured by Bill Leak this week in The Australian.

The Australian- order Bill Leak’s print

Cheers ^__^

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24.06.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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The alarm bells became louder when it was announced last week that Australian GDP had contracted by 1.2 per cent – which quickly brought about the re-introduction of that R word – Recession. Blogs and newspaper reporting ran amok, with some suggesting that the East Coast of Australia was already in recession. This week the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) correctly decided to leave the cash rate steady at 4.75 per cent. I don’t believe we will find ourselves in a technical recession although I do concur with the economic analogies that the Australian economy is correcting.  However, I believe (and I’m sure the majority would agree) that the weakest link in the Australian economy is the Gillard government.

Natural disasters dominated our GDP results although it is becoming quite evident that many Australians think the Gillard government is the economic equivalent to Cyclone Yasi.

CEO Pulse: Confidence in Australian economy declines – the latest Business Spectator Accenture CEO Pulse survey shows that optimism in the domestic economy, has dropped 22 per cent, with surveyed chief executives running  companies with an Australian turnover of $100 million or more,– reporting a decline in optimism to 51 per cent, compared to 73 per cent in the first quarter of 2011. The CEO’s estimation of the government’s performance in managing the economy continues its downward trend, with an overall rating of 3.3 out of 10 – the lowest average score since the CEO Pulse survey was established in early 2010.

BUY PRINT

Wategos Beach, Byron Bay – Tim Mooney’s aerial photo library would have to the most extensive in Australia. If you want a special photo click on the link and ask Tim as he probably has it.

Carbon price would not cut jobs, says Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan. One should not forget that when the GST came in, we were assured that it would reduce taxes, only to see the opposite.  Julia Gillard feels the heat over carbon tax backlash as voters call for new election given the carbon price will continue to be increased not decreased. It is an ongoing saga especially when you read Robert Gottliebsen’s piece in Business Spectator A resource tax by another name – “Let’s strip away all the carbon tax political rhetoric. It is becoming clear that the looming carbon tax is simply a disguised resources tax on gas and coal exports. It’s the Ken Henry – Wayne Swan first mining tax all over again but without iron ore and copper.” Wayne Swan is desperate to get the budget back in the black (his ego demands it) and the carbon tax is his secret weapon – it has nothing to do with the environment it’s just another tax. Ziggy Switkowski entered the debate by declaring Refuse the carbon tax’s junk mail.Would we have a carbon tax if the budget was not hopelessly in deficit?  Of course not!

We’re still on track for a ‘big Australia’ by 2050 and it is refreshing to see where our new immigrants are coming from, given the focus on asylum seekers. When immigration heads north of 180,000, Australia’s population will be on track to reach 36 million by 2050. This is scary, given our infrastructure struggles to cope with 22 million. I did notice a missing link in the Migration Roller – Coaster graph is the “other” which contributes nearly one – third at 94,178? “Australia’s national infrastructure policy should be managed in the same way as monetary policy – by an independent body removed from politics” wrote Alan Kohler – Infrastructure too important to be left to politics.

I totally agree and I can see the advertisement – Wanted: A government that can read an economy!

Jonathan Chancellor’s Property Observer launched this week to rave reviews. In terms of subscribers, it has taken Virtual Realty News eleven years! Property Observer has all but eclipsed our subscriber numbers in the space of days. For all the property voyeurs who can’t get enough of Australian real estate reporting, subscription is a must and it’s  free!

House prices can’t go up indefinitely although it should be noted that house values spend a significantly greater time in the black than in the red – just that we read more when it ventures into the red! The ongoing debate is that Australian house prices are over- valued – however when this happens we see panic-selling, where supply well and truly exceeds demand.

To put this into perspective, Christopher Joye wrote this week in Property Observer – Aussie housing stock is not too expensive. “One of the reasons banks have been prepared to lend so much for so long is the fact that borrowers have historically been vigilant in paying off these loans. Today there are slightly more than 30,000 borrowers who are more than three months behind on their home loan repayments, juxtaposed against a total pool of roughly 4 million to 5 million borrowers. That is, Australia’s “mortgage default rate” is a paltry 0.7%, despite our internationally high lending rates. This is less than one – 10^th and one – quarter the equivalent US and UK default rates respectfully.”

Our local real estate markets are definitely not panicking and volume is the key performance indicator.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 118
• Number of houses on the market this week – 107
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 96
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 97

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week –  17
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 37
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 42

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 13
• Number of houses on the market this week – 11
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 66
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 63

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Property above all things is my passion, so I found it very difficult to resist Jonathan Chancellor’s invitation to become an Observer, by regularly contributing articles to Property Observer.

Jonathan did express some concerns about my writing style (I believe he was politely referring to my political attacks). I referred him to this month’s Real Estate Institute of NSW Journal that ran the story “In blog we trust”, which was a critique of Virtual Realty News.

“The online revolution has changed the way real estate agencies do business. And you can be even more effective and successful by creating a specialised blog.” I did, however highlight “A mixture of local real estate news, statistics and astutely directed political comment. Virtual Realty News has generated not only a solid fan base, but has also brought the agency some very tangible benefits.”

Subscribe to Property Observer and read it for yourself next week. I’m still deliberating – should I go hard or adopt a ‘softly softly’ approach?

I will note your advice on our blog.

Cheers  ^__^

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10.06.11Robert Simeon10 Comments »

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Australia finds itself at a precipice (especially if you reside in Sydney) – sea – level rise to hit Sydney worst, warns climate report. In my humble opinion Julia Gillard’s Fort Fumble would struggle to negotiate a pedestrian crossing so I would pay little attention to the findings of the Climate Change Department – otherwise known as the (cash for comment) Carbon Tax Sales Department. Time to end climate denialism, says Gillard government scientific adviser which I agree is a modern day fact of life that needs addressing – just not by a government that is best recognised for bungles (not miracles) of economic management. Australia produces between just one and two per cent of global  emissions, so let’s explore why the emitters of that other ninety eight to ninety nine per cent have decided to do nothing (at this point in time).

That Australia has to wait until July before Fort Fumble announces the actual content of a new tax announced in February, defies common sense. Alas, Julia Gillard tells Labor MPs she’s playing ‘the long game’ and that Abbott’s popularity will fade which is just like saying that I don’t pay attention to the polls. As Alan Kohler wrote this week, Climate change action: make policy not war – “UBS analyst David Leitch has calculated that to achieve (the required emissions reductions) that with a carbon price alone would require a price of $80 per tonne, which is four times the planned starting point for the Labor Government’s carbon tax.” This would explain why the other ninety eight and ninety nine per cent emitters are not addressing the carbon problem.

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Fort Fumble is now at war with the Western Australia government as Colin Barnett blows a $2bn hole in Wayne Swan’s budget target. Another public relations disaster for Julia Gillard where the threats should have been kept in–house, not broadcast all over the country. Although it later became apparent that the Government knew about WA mining royalties which is now a fine mess to a political brawl between Wayne Swan and Troy Buswell over mining tax. WA facts and figures reveals that Western Australia has been the highest–earning Australian state per capita. The GSP (gross state product) is very impressive and clearly evident.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard is experiencing popularity declines Labor powerbrokers back Julia Gillard despite lowest ever polling and the polls will only get lower. In Queensland the LNP makes more ground in opinion poll and it is very clear that the Rudd state voters can’t wait to dump Gillard. A Galaxy Poll in this week’s Courier – Mail had Liberal National Party further in front with 61 points to Anna Bligh on 39 so another change of government is underway in Queensland. Fort Fumble has brought this discontent upon themselves so no need to feel sorry that nobody is listening which was evident at last week’s Victorian Labor Conference which experienced the lowest turnout.

Source: The Australian- order Bill Leak’s print

Arrears on mortgage repayments spiked to a record high in the first three months of 2011 as Low – doc mortgage arrears top GFC peak. If you look at the Housing Equity Injection, a major player in the determination is credit growth, aggregate demand and employment which then lead to spending sapped by stagnant house prices.

In another interesting first we now see RBA warns many first home buyers who used government grants may now be vulnerable which is somewhat contradictory to an earlier statement that RBA says mortgage stress not a problem – for now. A key indicator is always employment and growth in this sector is weakening which all but guarantees no rate hikes when the RBA next meets, in June.

Consumer spending is another thing to watch closely as that too is getting weaker and weaker. Now, economic data that shows employment, retail sales and housing market activity all declining. One should also take into consideration that all this data coincides with the time of year and we expect sentiment to improve greatly as we get closer to Spring and Summer (always the case).

Here are this week’s property statistics, downloaded for our property markets from – Domain

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 120
• Number of houses on the market this week – 118
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 101
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 96

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 21
• Number of houses on the market this week – 18
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 35
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 36

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 13
• Number of houses on the market this week – 12
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 60
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 58

So it would be fair to suggest that our property markets are somewhat ‘nonplussed’ which is exactly where we expect our demographic markets to sit for the next few months.

It was with great sadness that we lost one of our original subscribers to Virtual Realty News this week, with the passing of Dr. Bill Bramwell Roberts. “Billy Boy” would often grace our blog as TMW: The Mosman Wordsmith. A great mate of ours and a fantastic husband to Pat and father to Sophie and Victoria. Bill was Mr. Nice Guy to everyone who had the pleasure of sharing his company.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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26.05.11Robert Simeon5 Comments »

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Fascinating times for property voyeurs across Australia where many once upon a time boom markets, have fast become gloom markets with property prices in free–fall.  Earlier this week, I attended the Richardson & Wrench 2011 Conference in Surfers Paradise which is today in a scary market collapse as investors bail out from a once thriving economy. Property portals in Surfers Paradise show approximately 5,000 apartments for sale although a local agent told me that the correct figure would be closer to 10,000. Gold Coast ‘dead’, says developer as projects and properties are now falling into the hands of receivers.

Prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Perth was on track to surpass Sydney as Australia’s most expensive real estate market.  How quickly things can change. WA’s property slump is now the worst in 20 years the latest government figures reveal. Activity in the housing market has fallen 15 per cent in just twelve months and more than one third since the height of the boom in 2005 – 06. North of Sydney we are seeing a low tide for prices where hundreds of thousands of dollars are being wiped off Central Coast properties. Sydney’s most indulgent holiday markets, the hallowed addresses of Palm Beach and Whale Beach, whilst they may decline in value, appear to be holding up.  Although sales are down massively, on previous years.

BUY PRINT

Just like the stock (shock) market when investors are spooked, the very same rationale applies to the property markets. Investors are bailing due to a personal over-commitment which in turn, relates to their respective outlook on the Australian economy, combined with their own financial positioning. The trend we are witnessing at the moment is investors selling investment properties, not to be confused with the family home.  Hence my suggestion, that the holiday is over!

Here are statistics I downloaded this week from our most popular real estate portal – Domain

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses currently on the market: 120
• Number of apartments currently on the market: 101

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses currently on the market: 21
• Number of apartments currently on the market: 35

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses currently on the market: 13
• Number of apartments currently on the market: 60

Now that data confirms a solid market with no panic selling, we will continue to monitor this data on  weekly basis in Virtual Realty News. One thing for sure is that the investors who sell (at a loss) will try to recover significant amounts of their losses via their tax returns. I wonder if Wayne Swan factored this into his return to a budget surplus.  I doubt it. The Budget is a triumph of hope over experience where a Galaxy poll revealed just 28 per cent of voters believe it will be good for the economy. I always enjoy my weekly Alan Kohler read No surplus of ambition: Swan’s biggest plus although the polls keep telling us unpopular government, unpopular budget.

Source: The Australian- order Bill Leak’s print

Everybody (well most anyway) have a theory as to why so many indulgence markets are collapsing across Australia. I classify indulgence markets as properties purchased outside the family residence which takes us to Australia’s miracle economy: fact or fiction? For me it is quite simple. Under the Howard Government, Australia frolicked as it celebrated an unprecedented seventeen years of economic growth. Money was not the object – lifestyle was.  This is evidenced by the Australian GDP Annual Growth Rate from the early 1990’s to 2008 where today we are witnessing the clean up after Australia’s longest economic party – evidenced by this graph from Trading Economics.

Post GFC, what we are now seeing is human behaviour nearly identical to what we witnessed in the recession of the early 1990’s. This is evidenced in this graph as borrowings (leveraged debt) became an obsessive disorder. Fort Fumble did the same during the GFC which explains why it too, is having difficulty returning a once healthy budget back to surplus. Look at this graph.

I am dumbfounded as to why Julia Gillard’s Fort Fumble is spending $36 Billion (+ blow outs) on a NBN Co investment strategy so that Australian’s can have faster access to read how core markets are going broke. The decision to embark on Australia’s most expensive taxpayer investment (the NBN) was made before the GFC, yet Fort Fumble believes nothing has changed since then?

Budget, interest rate rise worries dent consumer confidence in May which is placing enormous pressure on Australian small businesses facing ‘uphill battle’ amid rents, dollar, internet competition. From an economic perspective, the demise of the ‘holiday’ property markets is driving the negativity in our property markets generally, given the real estate slump will leave banks in pain, too. This then resonates through property markets where there is no better example than – home loans drop to 10 – year low. On top of that is the reality that Reserve rate rise a question of when, not if which takes us to the inevitable as households on edge over interest rates. This roll on effect saw Moody’s downgrades ratings for big four banks to Aa2 from Aa1.

Now to the Gillard Carbon Tax debacle – electricity sector faces $6.5 billion debt refinancing “the debt challenge facing the electricity sector came as a report compiled for the federal government warned that uncertainty over the price of carbon in Australia posed a significant threat to investment in the sector. “ So we have a market capitalisation of $30 billion for the electricity sector in Australia yet $240 billion will have to be spent by 2030 and that is without a Carbon Tax.

The Deputy Prime Minister of Australia (Bobby Brown) has spoken – Greens leader Bob Brown vows to take on the media to shore up carbon tax push. Obviously an advocate of free speech, hugging trees and with a knowledge of economics that could only  be understood in a Parliamentary Economic Play School, Brownie, has decided to attack the media.

Senator Bobby Brown described newspapers’ front pages as unbalanced, opinionated and “not news in terms of having both sides.”  I believe he just described Virtual Realty News.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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20.05.11Robert Simeon8 Comments »

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Forget the last federal election that resulted in a hopeless hung parliament – the new rule is incarcerated in people speak – hallelujah as “united we stand – divided we fall.” Despite what politicians may say with bated breath – polls threaten their very own livelihoods as much as they threaten our right to agree or disagree. Left field policy announcements within the Rudd/Gillard regime has been met with aggression that resurrected – if you don’t like it run an advertising campaign first initiated by the mining companies.

Politicians want to be in the limelight – not a back drop hidden within a party struggling for that voter point of difference whilst in Opposition. It is interesting to note that parties in Opposition burn leaders with regularity given when Bob Hawke was Prime Minister (1983 – 1991) the Liberal Party went through four Opposition leaders, Andrew Peacock (1983 – 1985), John Howard (1985 – 1989), Andrew Peacock (1989 – 1990) and John Hewson (1990 – 1994). When Paul Keating was elected Prime Minister (1991 – 1996) he saw off John Hewson (1990 – 1994), Alexander Downer (1994 – 1995) then lost the 1996 Federal election to John Howard (1995 – 2007). Federal Labor then waved good bye to Kim Beazley (1996 – 2001), Simon Crean (2001 – 2003), Mark Latham (2003 – 2005) and Kim Beazley (2005 – 2006). Enter Kevin Rudd (2006 – 2010), Brendan Nelson (2007 – 2008), Malcolm Turnbull (2008 – 2009) then Tony Abbott (2009 – present).

Julia Gillard removed Kevin Rudd on (24 June 2010 – present) which is the first example of an elected Government burning a Prime Minister. Now we see (Labor worries as PM struggles) and even stranger Labor hits a 15 – year low but Rudd wins where the HeraldNielsen poll now has Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull as the preferred party leaders! Since 1983, Australia has had five Prime Ministers and twelve Opposition leaders with Kevin Rudd becoming just the second Prime Minister to serve just the one term and Julia Gillard fast tracking becoming the third. Federal Labor has now had two Prime Ministers in four years and NSW Labor had four Premiers in four years – a pattern forming?

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Let’s face it the Carbon Tax is a monumental debacle of mammoth proportion with many questions being asked – well Prime Minister, let’s see if you can hold your nerve. As key union puts Julia Gillard on notice over carbon tax which means that Julia Gillard’s carbon hopes up in smoke. Resembling an all in – brawl as food giants join war on carbon tax a great read on Carbon Tax is learning the hard way: Australia’s policies to reduce emissions – Grattan Institute. Throw in another major problem in that the Gillard Government is now fighting a bewildering array of battles, as it fashions a budget bound to open more fronts – budget blues.

Chris Richardson, Deloitte Access Economics: “The Global Financial Crisis was not a drama for our economy. It was and is still a drama for the Budget.”

Chris Uhlmann: The last forecast said this year’s deficit would land at $41 billion in the red. Next year the projected budget is 412 billion. But slowing growth and falling company and income tax receipts now mean those numbers are too rosy. With the Budget just weeks away, this year’s deficit will be worse.”

Chris Richardson: “Looking at the budget as a rolling 12 – month total, at its worst, it was a little bit over $60 billion in deficit. But that’s more or less where it still is.”

Which would then explain why Wayne Swan leaked figures showing $13bn slump in growth: Hockey. Back to that white board and “Building a better Australia.” As Julia told us!

Source: The Australian

Which brings us to the NBN Co debacle given Fort Fumble has temporarily terminated connections as business chief slams NBN rollout describing it as a squandered opportunity and one of the worst examples of pork – barrelling.  This should not come as any great surprise given Fort Fumble spent $2.5 billion on roof batts, $16 billion on the overpriced BER and spending $50 billion on the NBN Co – without a cost benefit study. Given it has now been halted due to blow – outs Fort Fumble is now considering a … wait for it…. NBN may accept greater risk which translates into greater debt and yet another debacle which would explain why it is currently suspended.

RBA minutes point to rates staying put which means that reading between the lines the cash rate won’t be moved until sometime within the December Quarter 2011. The months of October, November and December will see some upward movement(s) of the official cash rate. With the Federal fudge (oops I meant to say budget) to be released early next month it appears that Wayne Swan is about to announce that forecast growth will drop significantly from the earlier projected figure of 3.25 per cent to 2.25 per cent. That then would equate to a one per cent drop in Australia’s $1.3 trillion economy so the black hole is then $13 billion. Yes the Federal budget will be ugly but not as ugly as the manner in which Fort Fumble has handled Australia’s finances.

NSW ranks bottom in economic momentum as costs eat into savings, and sense of security which means that Barry O’Farrell has plenty of work ahead to rejuvenate and renovate the previous number one economy in Australia. A huge announcement this week: Barry O’Farrell’s pledge to put lid on power which is in stark contrast to the now collapsed Fort Crumble who pinched $15 billion in dividends and put nothing back into electricity – dividend freeze a crucial step.

New home loan numbers plunge: John Symond as residential property prices peaked in 2010 and will continue cooling in the next six months as big mortgage brokers report a 20 per cent drop in loan numbers. It’s too early to extrapolate the January – March 2010 figures against the January – March 2011 sales results – we will do that in a few week’s time as they are still being processed.

In the meantime here are the Mosman house sales and total value for the last ten years from 2000 – 2010 which is a Mosman first and Virtual Realty News exclusive.

Source: Domain Property Data

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES AND TOTAL VALUE – 2000 TO 2010

• 2000 – House Sales: 336 Total Value Of All House Sales: $464,002,395
• 2001 – House Sales: 413 Total Value Of All House Sales: $709,864,118
• 2002 – House Sales: 358 Total Value Of All House Sales: $723,591,555
• 2003 – House Sales: 359 Total Value Of All House Sales: $829,527,432
• 2004 – House Sales: 300 Total Value Of All House Sales: $677,939,257
• 2005 – House Sales: 293 Total Value Of All House Sales: $692,071,000
• 2006 – House Sales: 380 Total Value Of All House Sales: $947,918,130
• 2007 – House Sales: 395 Total Value Of All House Sales: $1,153,099,720
• 2008 – House Sales: 255 Total Value Of All House Sales: $867,925,612
• 2009 – House Sales: 299 Total Value Of All House Sales: $789,424,751
• 2010 – House Sales: 333 Total Value Of All House Sales: $870,181,155

RWM Research: In 2007 Mosman broke the $1 Billion mark for the total value of houses sold in a calendar year with 395 houses selling – also the record.

Next week, we will look at the average and median prices for Mosman houses from 2000 – 2010. As well as scrutinise the upcoming Federal Budget. ‘Wayne’s World’ is suffering as he has lost those ‘rivers of gold’ where many point a finger at his self-created ‘rivers of waste’.

Have a fantastic and safe Easter – savour and share our ANZAC spirit.

“Lest We Forget”

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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21.04.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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It’s getting carbon reality bites more interesting as the believers (or should that read deceivers) at Fort Fumble appear to be choking on their very own lack of emissions. Australia has approximately 8,500 million households and consensus indicates that it would be easier to simply remove the government as carbon debate leaves Gillard out of breath. Not content with trying to run that little thing called an economy – Fort Fumble is now at war with business leaders, constituents, mining, energy, manufacturing, industry, clubs, hotels, researchers and scientists. Mediation would be a good start if Fort Fumble had anything to bring to the table and many believe that the carbon tax is the worst ‘policy on the run’ announcement ever.

Billions pledged in carbon compo declared Fort Fumble although what it can’t guarantee is that the carbon tax will put jobs at risk, ACCI survey suggests. More than two–thirds of Australians are concerned that the introduction of a carbon tax will put jobs at risk, while an even greater number believe companies will move overseas as a result of it. A recent survey by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry revealed 59 per cent of people are opposed to a carbon tax, while only 27 per cent declared that they support it. It becomes increasingly difficult to sell a tax when Fort Fumble still doesn’t know what it is actually selling – or does it still not know how to actually sell it? The carbon tax is very black and white with way too much grey. It desperately needs some colour.

BUY PRINT

Now to that other thing called an economy. The Tax Forum is scheduled for October 4 – 5 when 150 representatives of community groups, businesses, unions, governments, tax practitioners and academics have now been told Labor closes door on tax reform – just like the Henry Tax Review which was also rejected. Giant tax hole sets up savage budget as Australia’s very own Master Economist, Wayne Swan, struggles to understand that when personal income takes a $1 billion hit and business tax takes another $3 billion hit, alas – our economy is not performing well. Not exactly a case for ‘everyone’s a winner’ although rest assured, Wayne Swan proved Keynes works but can he avoid Keynes’s curse?

Fort Fumble you have a problem!

And that little thing called inflation!

The real estate industry is (was) the biggest employer across Australia!

As the economy fights back from summer of disasters the funniest yarn of the week was from Steve Keen who wrote this housing bubble could break our banks. Yes – the same person who predicted that during the Global Financial Crisis house prices would drop by forty (40) per cent. Yes, our banks are concerned but not about house prices – rather banks nervous about new pokie rules as pokie limits prompt banks to review lending to pubs.

More sobering and intelligent boom – time returns well and truly over says bank chief with which I totally concur as Mosman busy, but first home buyers absent. As news filters through that we are now seeing some anecdotal sales evidence above $10 million, this in all probability, will resonate through the local market in a positive way. The entire top–end property markets are under the pump to start posting these sales results and allay the myth that our property bubble is bursting. Yes, we are seeing a positive return of confidence, albeit somewhat slower than we have seen previously.

This brings us to the final part of Mosman house sales above $5,000,000 from 2005 to 2010.

Source: Domain Property Monitors

2005 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of house sales – 15
• Total Value – $131,120,000
• Median Price – $6,500,000
• Average Price – $8,741,333
• Highest Price – $14,800,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 100 per cent (one property)
• House Sales above $5,000,000 – 6
• House Sales above $6,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $7,000,000 – 0
• House Sales above $8,000,000 – 0
• House Sales above $9,000,000 – 0
• House Sales above $10,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $11,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $12,000,000 – 0
• House Sales above $13,000,000 – 1
• House Sales above $14,000,000 – 2

2006 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 28
• Total Value – $205,033,000
• Median Price – $6,400,000
• Average Price – $7,115,228
• Highest Price – $15,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 50 per cent (two properties)
• House Sales above $5,000,000 – 8
• House Sales above $6,000,000 – 7
• House Sales above $7,000,000 – 6
• House Sales above $8,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $9,000,000 – 0
• House Sales above $10,000,000 – 0
• House Sales above $11,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $12,000,000 – 1
• House Sales above $13,000,000 – 1
• House Sales above $14,000,000 – 0
• House Sales above $15,000,000 – 1

2007 – HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 43
• Total Value – $337,350,000
• Median Price – $6,800,000
• Average Price – $7,845,348
• Highest Price – $22,500,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent
• House Sales above $5,000,000 – 15
• House Sales above $6,000,000 – 9
• House Sales above $7,000,000 – 6
• House Sales above $8,000,000 – 1
• House Sales above $9,000,000 – 1
• House Sales above $10,000,000 – 4
• House Sales above $11,000,000 – 1
• House Sales above $12,000,000 – 1
• House Sales above $13,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $14,000,000 – 1
• House Sales above $22,000,000 – 1

RWM Research: Now the Global Financial Crisis enters the property market.

2008 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 24
• Total Value – $172,100,000
• Median Price – $6,150,000
• Average Price – $7,170,000
• Highest Price – $14,700,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 43 per cent
• House Sales above $5,000,000 – 12
• House Sales above $6,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $7,000,000 – 3
• House Sales above $8,000,000 – 3
• House Sales above $9,000,000 – 3
• House Sales above $10,000,000 – 1
• House Sales above $14,000,000 – 1

RWM Research: Total sales above $5,000,000 dropped from $337,350,000 to $172,100,000

2009 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 22
• Total Value – $158,975,000
• Median Price – $6,075,000
• Average Price – $7,226,136
• Highest Price – $13,200,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 25 per cent
• House Sales above $5,000,000 – 9
• House Sales above $6,000,000 – 5
• House Sales above $7,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $8,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $9,000,000 – 0
• House Sales above $10,000,000 – 1
• House Sales above $11,000,000 – 0
• House Sales above $12,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $13,000,000 – 1

2010 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 23
• Total Value – $165,895,000
• Median Price – $6,500,000
• Average Price – $7,212,826
• Highest Price – $12,600,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 33 per cent
• House Sales above $5,000,000 – 9
• House Sales above $6,000,000 – 4
• House Sales above $7,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $8,000,000 – 1
• House Sales above $9,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $10,000,000 – 1
• House Sales above $11,000,000 – 2
• House Sales above $12,000,000 – 1

It will be interesting to see what 2011 reveals given the top – end markets appear to be in recovery mode.

Next week we will investigate further. Although of much greater concern is NSW takes aim at Canberra’s green energy scheme as power bills soar.

It’s becoming very clear, who is winning the fight.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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