Posts Tagged ‘Macquarie Economics Research’

rsimeon

Is The Property Market Crashing In Or Cashing In?

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Here we go again – global financial markets went into yet another tail spin this week as they collectively expressed concerns about world growth and financial stability. Global credit markets face a ‘perfect storm’with companies across the world having to raise $40 trillion to finance upcoming debt. On top of this, in the March quarter, China’s economy grew at its slowest rate in three years.

I read with interest this week the Macquarie Economics Research Global Economics Update – Confidence ebbs, worries revive. “Against this background, our key macro forecasts have been altered to reflect some concern about growth trajectories of aggregate … more »

rsimeon

Four new P’s – polls, populism, performance and of course, profits!

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Actually not that different with the three P’s that pertain to property – position, position and position. Throw in politicians and bankers and what we have is the 2010 equivalent of economic soup that is murky and far from palatable. During the global financial crisis (GFC) Westpac and the Commonwealth banks wrote approximately eighty (80) per cent of all mortgages which explains why today, collectively, they own the largest mortgage books. Alan Kohler wrote on The Drum that banks only have themselves to blame which has caused a stir given many consumers are more »

rsimeon

Not just the horses are off and racing!

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Next week the nation stops for the running of the Melbourne Cup, so out comes the form guide. Nothing unusual one might say, as it is well documented that Aussies would have a bet on two flies climbing up a wall. I’m not sure if any punters will have a wager as to whether or not the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike up the cash rate when they gather to assess the track condition of the Australian economy. On Melbourne Cup day last year, the RBA broke tradition when it reached for the whip and increased the cash rate target by +0.25 … more »

rsimeon

It’s cold and we’re off to the polls – acute market negativity!

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Plenty of negative sentiment about the property markets at the minute – so try telling somebody who cares, given purchasers and vendors appear a thousand miles apart (for the moment anyway).

Last week, I wrote that July can be a lost property month as so many are away on holidays. This is echoed with website traffic where Unique Visitors are busily visiting other sites such as beach resorts and or snowfields. Sour outlook for house prices as investors are the only source of growth in market which is interesting given investors … more »

rsimeon

Back flips, mistakes and a broken economic compass!

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With the benefit of hindsight, we ask, did the powers that be in Canberra get the stimulus spending right whilst addressing the global financial crisis? If not, what have they learned from it (if anything)? The answer would be absolutely nothing, given nothing has, or is, being done about housing. Construction activity falls in June which is a clue dropping 6.8 points in June to a 10 – month low. More construction equates to more homes which in turn, reduces house prices. The construction industry ‘is’ the third biggest employer in Australia (or  should that be ‘was’?)

The major problems attributed to Forts Fumble … more »

rsimeon

Is Australia double–dipping? We all need to KISS (keep it simple stupid!)

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Here we go again – Mad Monday wiped $40 billion from our shock – markets and once again, hedge funds ran amok with an  insatiable desire to short stocks. Throw in the calamities of Europe, a highly sensitive super tax on mining and  a federal election and we see emotions running high.  What is abundantly clear is, that financial markets now, more than ever before, will dictate property markets results for quite a few years to come.  As they say “money makes the world go around” and it would be fair to suggest that currently, it is spinning much slower.

With world economies delicately poised and many drowning with self induced … more »

rsimeon

Nothing beats controlled political chaos!

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An extraordinary week in Australian politics that resembled the “Battle of Sydney Harbour” or maybe “Battleships in the Big Bathtub” – where part of all contestants’ boundaries (by coincidence) were the high water marks of Sydney Harbour. The “Mad Monk” won line honours and yet, as with any race (fluid spill motions) there are always protests and on the very same day, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) broke tradition and raised the cash rate (+0.25%) for the third consecutive month – a day of threes!

The cash rate, now at 3.75 per cent, keeps heading north and whilst on north, rumours that “The Emperor” Kevin Rudd is auditioning … more »

rsimeon

Australian real estate needs to get trigger – happy!

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Forget the spin and electoral rhetoric – Australia had just one quarter of negative growth yet in the wash – up many businesses did very well from the (apparently) worst global financial crisis (GFC) since the Great Depression. Danny John from the Sydney Morning Herald wrote “What crisis? Westpac gains ground from the GFC “A close study of Westpac’s annual financial result shows just how much the country’s second – biggest bank has benefited from the gains in revenue – and therefore market share – which all four of the majors have enjoyed in the wake of the global financial … more »

rsimeon

GFC – is the G, still Global or now Government?

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Much has been written and spoken about the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) where it now appears that the ‘Global’ has been superseded by Governments in crisis. In Australia it is a calamity at both Federal and State levels – (all will be explained later). In modern day speak, our elected governments are now on margin calls where debt ratios have fast exceeded income streams – political policies without pertinent planning? Rolling back budget deficits will inevitably lead to increased new taxes – but then again The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) told us that after all, he is an “economic conservative”.

At the very heart, we have the much publicised economic stoush between … more »

rsimeon

Mirror, mirror on the wall….

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Please tell the Australian voting public that we made the correct call. The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) is a worried man, given that when interest rates start rising the Government of the day (historically) receives all the blame. Monash University political analyst Nick Economou was more succinct “The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is a game – changer” (where this time around nobody will be able to keep them low). “With the indicators being that the bank is starting to ratchet up the rates, the Labor Party would be thinking ‘we ought to go to a poll sooner rather than later, because if we go as scheduled in November next year, … more »