We have been waiting all year for the Mosman housing market to mount a formidable challenge to the market – this week it’s officially game – on. Three weeks ago there were 115 houses on the market, last week it increased to 133, this week on Domain it has jumped to 147 which is the highest number of houses we have seen throughout 2011. Given Mosman has (approximately) 4,900 houses,  is approximately (actually just under) 5 per cent of the total volume which is the exact target number and where the market should be under normal market trade conditions.

Next week’s inflation numbers will determine the RBA’s next rate move – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has had a difficult task in 2011 balancing the cash rate given its projections that Australia faces elevated inflation over 2011, 2012 and 2013. So a string of good data might stop RBA from cutting rates: Economists although the “subdued”state of the housing market identified that prices had fallen 3 per cent over the year to August. So our housing destiny takes shape where it should be noted that we’re the richest nation on earth, according to a Credit Suisse report.

The Credit Suisse report also notes the European sovereign debt crisis is not expected to stop a new generation of millionaires emerging in the next five years, with the greatest wealth growth likely to occur in the booming Asia – Pacific (that would be Australia.)

BUY PRINT

We sent our Virtual Realty News eye in the sky Tim Mooney to capture The Trots given Hot to trot: latest inner west housing development a ‘game changer’. The Harold Park venue for the trots is  about to become one of Sydney’s largest inner–city housing developments – 1,250 new prestige apartments and terraces that will push up property prices (great news for the property markets). Mirvac is developing the site and will also be creating a 20 – hectare green belt linking Bicentennial Park to Blackwattle Bay.

Uncertainty clouds start of spring auction season grabbed my attention when the Westpac – Melbourne Institute quarterly house price expectation index fell to 9 in October, from a reading of 15.3 in the three months to July. This was its lowest level since May 2009, with doubts about the housing market lingering. This is a national measure so with interest, I noted that 38.7 per cent see prices rising in the next twelve months and 31.5 per cent see them unchanged. Almost one – third (29.8 per cent) predicted falls over the next year, so 70.2 per cent see prices increasing or remaining steady over the next twelve months. Quite funny that real estate is a long term hold not a short term play which was recently evidenced with the reality price failures of The Block and The Renovators on television.

Even the ‘World’s Greatest Treasurer’ was drawn into the debate with Wayne Swan telling the ABC that he doesn’t agree with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report which indicates Australia’s house prices are overvalued by ten to fifteen per cent. The RBA has plenty of room to move on Australia’s cash rate which presently sits at 4.75 per cent. Last week SQM Research disclosed that Australia has 362,793 houses for sale – Mosman contributed just 133 which was an increase of 24.3 per cent on the same time last year.

The last Census report in 2007 identified that in Australia, thirty per cent rent, so it was interesting to read the Australian Property Monitors – Rental Report where only Sydney recorded growth in unit median weekly asking prices for the quarter of 2.2 per cent.

Lower North Shore has it all for renters – but at a cost as rents soar in major cities as Sydney rents rocket by 13 per cent: report.We have a population in the fastest growth mode yet residential building down 5.3 per cent in June in  quarter. So do the mathematics about supply V demand.  It’s simple and a no – brainer. So Australia’s greatest property pest Steve Keen is back at it again – Property prices to fall 20% by 2013 yer’s end: Steve Keen. A property guru who sold his $500,000 (plus a bit) apartment on South Dowling Street based on his global financial crisis predictions that property prices would fall by 40 per cent back on September 2008.   In my opinion, in Australia, he is the court jester of real estate, but given the Sydney rental data we have published, he has in all probability decided to buy back in?

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 115
• Number of houses on the market this week – 133
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 78
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 86

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 16
• Number of houses on the market this week – 15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 34
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 36

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 15
• Number of houses on the market this week – 17
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 80
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 83

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate - Click Here

I have gone easy on Julia Gillard’s Fort Fumble or should that read Fort F*&! – up as the political hit has been arranged – it’s a Right mess for Julia Gillard as Labor factions fight. The powerful NSW Right which also destroyed NSW has allegedly activated another political assassination. Ironic they had the terminal finger on the trigger to remove Kevin Rudd and they now intend to do the same to their anointed replacement.

History shows that Australia’s property markets respond much better under the alternate government – maybe property buyers should read into that?

Cheers ^__^

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21.10.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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Not a great week for Fort Fumble, voters desert Prime Minister Julia Gillard over the carbon tax when Newspoll revealed voter satisfaction is now at record lows. Labor veteran John Faulkner entered the debate internal reform won’t fix Labor’s crisis given the biggest problem is their inability to govern. As quick as a flash Labor powerbrokers back Julia Gillard despite poll woes which is not that simple a fix, half the electorate have the government “on the nose”. The latest Essential Media poll identified that just 34 per cent of voters approved and 54 per cent disapproved, which is the first disapproval rating over 50 per cent. Whatever the case the Faulkner speech ignites Labor feud where the odds keep firming that Australia may have a another Prime Minister in 2011.

The carbon tax and the inability to settle the asylum – seeker agreement with Malaysia have electorates questioning Labor policies. Matters of popularity won’t be helped that Labor plans taxpayer – funded carbon price ad campaign taxpayers will foot a $12 million bill. NSW electricity bill spikes confirmed where rises by more than 18 per cent can be expected due to higher network costs and the impact of the federal government’s Renewable Energy Target scheme. That other fight with the miners continues, as the government stands by mining tax.Then an announcement that boom state of Queensland is back, ready to drive the nation when announcing an investment boom in resource projects worth more than $100 billion over the next two years – don’t forget we also have the Gillard flood levy to pay also. Little wonder that consumer sentiment lowest for two years – now what part of all this doesn’t the Gillard government understand?

BUY PRINT

Ms Gillard and Co should read a few statistical notes on the NSW election.

• The Coalition recorded a 2 – party preferred vote of 64.2 per cent, an overall swing of 16.5 per cent. Both the vote and swing are likely to be records for the post – war period.
• All 93 seats recorded a 2 – party swing to the Coalition, the smallest 4.7 per cent and the largest 36.7 per cent in Bathurst.
• There were only 16 seats with swings below 10 per cent.
• There were 21 seats with swings above 20 per cent and three with swings above 30 per cent, Bathurst, Ryde and Riverstone.
• The Coalition’s 2 – party referred vote was 75.7 per cent in country NSW, 62.0 per cent in Sydney and even 53.9 per cent in the industrial seats of the Hunter and Illawarra.
• In the Hunter Valley, Labor’s primary vote was 32.9 per cent, against 33.1 per cent for the Liberal Party and 2.1 per cent for the Nationals.
• On the broadly defined North Shore of Sydney, Labor polled only 12.2 per cent of the vote to the Liberals 67.4 per cent, the Greens outpolling Labor with 13.8 per cent. The Liberal 2 – party vote on the North Shore was 80.7 per cent.
• The Liberal Party polled 50.6 per cent of the first preference voter in greater a Sydney as opposed to 28.3 per cent for Labor.
• The Liberal Party even won a majority of the vote in Western Sydney, a first preference vote of 43.5 per cent to 36.6 per cent for Labor, a Liberal 2 – party vote of 53.8 per cent.
• The Labor first preference vote was in single figures in seven electorates.
• Labor recorded a majority of the first preference vote in only one electorate, 51.4 per cent in Liverpool.

The Australian- order Bill Leak’s print

Glenn Stevens the head teller at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) gave his address to the Economic Society of Australia (Queensland) 2011 Business luncheon. The message was pretty clear in that rates must rise, warns RBA governor Glenn Stevens. The RBA is forecasting CPI growth at 3.5 per cent and inflation at 2.5 per cent. The Australian Bureau of Statistics for the year to March has CPI growth at 3.3 per cent and inflation at 2.25 per cent.

Western Sydney leads the way in mortgage delinquencies with 1 in 400 borrowers falling behind in loan repayments. The lower North Shore is the best – performing region in Australia with 0.55 per cent of borrowers in arrears by one or more payments.

Yesterday was a ‘Horror day’ – $25b wiped off the market which was more about the spooking when Greece gets world’s worst credit rating. It is not phasing the Mosman real estate markets as the total number of properties for sale continues to decline.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 107
• Number of houses on the market this week – 104
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 97
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 99

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week –  17
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 42
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 38

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 11
• Number of houses on the market this week – 12
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 63
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 63

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

For those who missed my first report on Property Observer Real estate needs to stay on the boil and yes, Anne was first again to post a comment.

Cheers ^__^

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17.06.11Robert Simeon4 Comments »

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It has now been revealed that the weakest link found by the key players two independents who delivered the government to Julia Gillard, preferred a leader who was more likely to run Parliament to its full three–year term. Tony Windsor believed that Tony Abbott was more likely to run a new election as soon as possible.  Asked why he thought so, Windsor replied: “Because I think they would be more likely to win.” So the Independents tear us to a new Paradigm as $10bn regional package seals Labor win. Who will forget that speech Oakeshott holds Australia hostage with self – indulgent theatrics better known as his 15 minutes of fame and his later admission he weighed up offers from Tony Abbott that got ‘bigger and bigger’.

Australia has a population of 22,454,686 and 14,030,528 voted according to the Electoral Commissioner where the breakdown is interesting. NSW – 4,591,748, Victoria – 3,547,403, QLD – 2,707,464, WA – 1,356,228, SA – 1,102,827, TAS – 357,873, ACT – 246,436 and NT – 120,489 which was a 385,455 increase from the 2007 election, when 13,645,073 were enrolled to vote.

BUY PRINT

No time for woulda coulda shoulda from Gillard as less than 24 hours following the announcement the insults start to fly from furious Coalition as Liberal Senator George Brandis told ABC Radio, the Labor government had “as much legitimacy as the Pakistani cricket team”. Then Fort Fumble (or should that now be Fort Eggshell) faced a landslide when Wayne Swan appears at odds with independent by excluding mining tax from summit which promptly saw Windsor at odds with Labor over mining tax review as miners take up fight against rent tax again.

Even more revealing, Swan let Rudd down on MRRT: WA premier when it became obvious that many missed reading perhaps now politicians will stop trashing their reputations. One thing we are already assured of will be many more back flips as Hockey warns of government instability where it would be irresponsible to rule out The Revenge of The Emperor – Kevin Rudd back in the spotlight after Julia Gillard wins government.

I can see the headlines now “Gillard fights testosterone”, although I prefer, ‘here-ego’ again, to the polls! You would have noted that the new buzz word from our esteemed leader is “regional” which never saw the light of day in the pre–election hysteria. In whichever direction you look, you will see  too many seasoned bulls in the one paddock with very little room to ‘moo-ve’ in the lush paddocks surrounding Fort Fumble.

Economy held up well post – GFC, says RBA “in that market, unlike a number of others, conditions have generally returned to those before 2007.” Interesting to see that the Australian dollar has become the fifth most traded currency, overtaking the Swiss franc, with the AUD/USD remaining the fourth most traded currency pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold when directors met this week for their monthly cucumber sandwiches – rates unchanged, statement lacks ‘meat’.

The main triggers that determine home values are recessions, unemployment and interest rates, so this week’s announcement jobs surge increases rates risk delivers a strong possibility that in November we will see interest rates increased. On a positive note, investors are jumping back into term deposits making a comeback which means that the banks don’t have to buy more expensive money on the wholesale market. A great barometer for the property markets is consumer confidence, which is headed to ten–year highs.

Don’t bet the house on a property price bubble bursting provides an excellent assessment of how our property market is so different to the US housing market – subprime 2.0 is on its way. Yes our construction activity remains weak given poor planning to blame for building slump where again the culprit is Fort Crumble, Australia’s worst performing state government. The number of new dwellings completed in 1999 – 2000 was 32,358 and in 2007 – 2008 it was 14,795. The value of residential homes built in NSW since the late 1990’s has fallen from 36 per cent of Australian output to just over 20 per cent. The report estimates that for Sydney to keep up with demand, we will require 25,000 – 50,000 new homes each year. The present government target is 25,000. Here is an interesting graph showing Lower North Shore house and apartment sales from April 2008 to August 2010.

Here are the Mosman sales which remain consistent and strong for both demographics.

Mosman home values are still a very strong currency as the graphs indicate although when one looks at last week’s sales it is most obvious that the 2010 Federal election has confused consumer confidence. Based on our analysis of all data available, we can advise that we won’t see a property boom for at least a few years and prices will gradually increase. This leads me to suggest that we may now find ourselves in an entirely new space, where our households have transgressed from previous debt collection, to fast track debt reduction.

We don’t expect to see a sudden influx of properties on the market anytime soon, so get used to a property market that remains in a holding pattern (much better than a market in a folding pattern). The Mosman graph above, clearly indicates this and is anecdotal market evidence.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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10.09.10Robert Simeon7 Comments »

My curiosity was stirred last week by M Jackson, who said that, (subject to approval) the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) may allow you to have a punt on our property markets. Described as a world first, ASX punters can take out a derivative contract based on Rismark/RP Data market indices which are in turn quoted daily to the share market. I did laugh when I read ‘daily’ – try months after the event if real estate agents decide to block data sales access.

Back to M Jackson’s comment on last week’s blog – “Contrary to popular myth, the water in Australian plugholes goes down the same way as everywhere else. So, too, the housing market. Figures from the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday showed that prices in eight capital cities were down by a record 2.2 per cent between December and March. The fourth quarterly fall in a row brought the year – on – year rate of decline to almost 7 per cent.”

Rismark/RP Data reported national dwelling values increased by 1.52 per cent for March 2009. Then the ABS reports a 2.2 per cent decline. Somebody got it wrong – but hey, take a punt?

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Back to M Jackson’s comment – “Gross rentals yields of about 3 per cent, meanwhile, are near all – time lows; if houses were stocks, they’d be trading on wobbly price/earnings multiples of more than 30 times. Unemployment data, to be released on Thursday, may show a rise to almost 6 per cent, the highest level in six years. Job ads fell again in April. Mortgage flows are sputtering. The props are falling away. Currently the SFE is constructing a tradeable index on Australian housing, which should be completed by and ready by August 2009. I can’t wait to go short. If there was one specific to the Lower North Shore in Sydney. I would have double the size positions.”

I thank M Jackson for his input and look forward to reading more responses to our blogs.

The Global Financial Crisis was brought about by global banking institutions investing in (probable and possible) markets based on high debt ratios – otherwise known as gambling. The process for aggregating property data has always been flawed – highlighted by the simple fact that the ABS and Rismark/RP Data constantly report conflicting property data positions. Definitely not an each – way bet!

Consider the property market reality, if ASIC approves the trade derivative contracts and the Australian real estate agencies automatically cease providing all sales data to all the aggregators? It would then be one, two, three, four, five and six months until such data became available. Just who would punt on such irregularities? The data aggregators don’t act in harmony with real estate agencies in Australia where there is not the slightest possibility of any change – anytime soon. I would predict (and support) a total real estate data black–out.

After all, we act for our vendors (first and foremost) and are under absolutely no obligation to report sales data that aggregator’s then on-sell to institutions. One only has to look at the banning of shorting banking stocks to observe that this is conducive to assisting economic growth in a recession. The real estate industry is the largest employer in Australia where our economy is only in a sound position because our banking system is world’s best practise and world’s best profits too.

Simply put: real estate agencies would cease reporting sales and rental data and agents would then lengthen the odds quite considerably. If such a market was created where (just say) you could bet on the Mosman market – I would hope that collectively, Mosman agencies would turn such a proposal into a blank canvas with data support.

From “bricks and mortar” to “punt and hunt” derivative markets! The only people that I can see making money from these proposed markets are actually the real estate agents. Is this Australia’s financial version of subprime – a buy position without actually owning a house? Short on being exact and very long on accuracy.

I thought Malcolm Turnbull’s Budget response to be lame (to say the least). However, with the possibility of a double dissolution around the corner, it makes sense to keep ones “powder dry”. As one subscriber said this week, “depending upon the government for your future financial security, is like hiring an accountant who is a compulsive gambler!”

Ruddy Fantastic and Wayne Swans’ missing word disorder’ may have been cured this week when it was revealed on www.smh.com.au “It’s been suggested that Kevin Rudd would not utter the phrase “$300 billion” for fears his words will be used in coalition advertisements during the next election campaign.” So much for “sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me.” Then “Mr Rudd said Australia’s debt would peak at “around 200, or gross debt at about 300” in 2013 – 14. Now journalists are on to this political spin game and will play this to their hearts’ content. Very petty, although Australia’s deficit needs much more than petty cash as we will continually be reminded for many years to come.

Australia’s housing prices are at their most affordable level in seven years and in the March quarter the Housing Industry Association – Commonwealth Bank First Home Buyer Affordability Index recorded a 14.6 per cent increase. The average home loan fell by 11 per cent from $2056 a month to $1831 last year.

Despite confidence levels still being down, car sales in April were up on the March figures. Just as interesting is that in Mosman on www.domain.com.au there are only 118 houses/semis (I removed double entries, apartments, and out of area listings from the listed 135) available for sale which is an all time low in available stock levels. This will only get tighter over winter given that purchasers are now engaging with vendors.

This week’s video is a brilliant story about the annual Balmoral Burn Race Day which happens next Sunday on May 31. The Balmoral Burn Sponsors’ Dinner takes place on Friday May 29, 2009 so watch the video for more details. Keeping in the theme, this week’s aerial photograph by Tim Mooney Photography, highlights the best beach on our planet and in the background Awaba Street – the Balmoral Burn tread mill. Congratulations to Phil and Julie Kearns who started this brilliant fundraising event back in 2001. Given that I have won the race three times now, I am no longer eligible to compete.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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22.05.09Robert Simeon8 Comments »