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2011 has been a year of ‘follow the bouncing ball’ and for some it has become an obsession. Our fixation and theories on things beyond our control has lead to short term paralysis! As a result, our long-term judgment is clouded. Our economy continues to track well with miners and households drive recovery as GDP growth exceeds Treasury forecasts. It actually grew 1 per cent in the September quarter and is recording near Asian rates of economic growth on the back of massive resource projects and strong household spending.

This week, we also had valid arguments as to why the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should not cut rates although it makes better sense to read the October RBA – Monetary Policy Decision where the cash rate remained unchanged at 4.75 per cent. Next read the December RBA – Monetary Policy Decision where the cash rate was lowered another 25 basis points from November to now sit at 4.25 per cent. It is quite amusing that the RBA announced it would be effective from 7 December 2011. A bit of trivia: since December 18 1990 – the RBA has cut the cash rate five times and increased it four times at its December meetings.

Silence from our four big banks was deafening until one day after the effective date of 7 December NAB joins ANZ in matching RBA rate cut when (reluctantly) Westpac and the CBA brought up the tail. The reason why? It’s simple: by delaying the announcement to pass on the full interest rate cut, they receive an extra $5.6 million in pre–tax profit for every day of silence. A purely commercial decision (albeit short term) that gives journalists and social media a field day of ‘bank bashing’ that over time, can cause customer revolt.

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It would not be a complete edition of Virtual Realty News unless we were spoilt by the brilliance of Tim Mooney who is in my opinion one of this country’s greatest photographers. He has made soaring through our skies and capturing amazing photographic images, an art form.

Australia is suffering from shark alarm syndrome. The alarm sounds and swimmers leave the water! The next day they are back swimming without a care. The difference with the economy is that the daily shark alarms are based on assumptions, not sightings.

ANZ shifts to monthly rates review where they are now set to sever the long–standing link between official interest rates set by the RBA and the rates customers pay on their mortgage. This decision questions the relevance of the RBA, if banks are to decide independently, what their cash rate will be. This has the potential to become very ugly and I see ‘bank bashing’ alive and well in 2012. On the one hand we will have bank advertising campaigns of those warm and fuzzy happy family moments and on the other, journalists and social media beating the living daylights out of their reputations. The latter will win hands down!

Funniest online fight of the week goes to Business Spectator when Alan Kohler wrote – Wake up and smell a budget stinker which brought on a reply by the ‘World’s Greatest Treasurer’ Not a shocker, not bozos. The conclusion I drew, is that what Wayne Swan says, bears absolutely no resemblance to what he writes. So Treasury must have written the response. I still believe Alan Kohler is on the money.

So let’s review the Mosman housing market for 2011 as compared to previous years. How do believe it performed, given all the adverse economic commentary. Before you read on, do you think it was up or down?

Source: Domain Property Monitors

Mosman House Results 2010

• Total Number Offered – 289
• Total Number Sold – 233
• Total Value Sold – $499,283,500
• Private Treaty – 193
• Auction – 40
• Clearance Rate – 25 per cent

Mosman House Results 2011

• Total Number Offered – 307*
• Total Number Sold – 248*
• Total Value Sold – $515,676,000
• Private Treaty – 198
• Auction – 50
• Clearance Rate – 29 per cent

*many sales yet to be recorded/registered so this will increase

Let’s now look at the median and average prices.

• 2010 Mosman House Median Price – $2,250,000
• 2011 Mosman House Median Price – $2,240,000
• 2010 Mosman Average House Price – $2,684,319
• 2011 Mosman Average House Price – $2,658,123

If we go back to the RBA December Monetary Policy Decision, the Governor Glenn Stevens, said “Growth in the global economy has moderated this year after a strong performance in 2010.” So it is interesting to read the Economic and housing predictions for 2012: Craig James. “With the benefit of hindsight it is clear that our economic and financial forecasts were overly optimistic. “ That may be the case however it is not reflective in the 2011 Mosman house sales results.

I can’t emphasise enough that the pulse of our property markets is best defined by weekly sales activity and this week, twenty properties in Mosman found new owners. In mathematical terms, that equates to just 2.2 per cent of Mosman’s 4,900 (approx) houses on the market and that number is reducing on a weekly basis.

Source: Domain Property Monitors

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 118
• Number of houses on the market this week – 107
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 111
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 106

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 14
• Number of houses on the market this week – 14
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 25

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 14
• Number of houses on the market this week – 13
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 93
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 89

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate – Click Here

For this week’s open for inspections – Click Here

Steve, Rich, I and our brilliant RWM team, thank you for your fantastic patronage to our Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) business model. Our subscriber sales sit on $1,024,767,720, the Australian record for real estate online sales. It has been our absolute pleasure to have you join us each week, in what has been a most turbulent year.

However, I don’t believe our property market can compete with the expected turbulence in Canberra in 2012, with Julia Gillard and her totally incompetent government at the forefront. Kevin Rudd will challenge, so expect some amazing theatrics where self-preservation will come to the fore!

2012 will be our twelfth year of Virtual Realty News.

Have a relaxed and fantastic Christmas and New Year.

My final Virtual Realty News thought for 2011. What a pity our economy doesn’t grow as fast as our children!

Virtual Realty News will return on January 20, 2012.

Cheers ^__^

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9.12.11Robert Simeon13 Comments »

We have been waiting all year for the Mosman housing market to mount a formidable challenge to the market – this week it’s officially game – on. Three weeks ago there were 115 houses on the market, last week it increased to 133, this week on Domain it has jumped to 147 which is the highest number of houses we have seen throughout 2011. Given Mosman has (approximately) 4,900 houses,  is approximately (actually just under) 5 per cent of the total volume which is the exact target number and where the market should be under normal market trade conditions.

Next week’s inflation numbers will determine the RBA’s next rate move – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has had a difficult task in 2011 balancing the cash rate given its projections that Australia faces elevated inflation over 2011, 2012 and 2013. So a string of good data might stop RBA from cutting rates: Economists although the “subdued”state of the housing market identified that prices had fallen 3 per cent over the year to August. So our housing destiny takes shape where it should be noted that we’re the richest nation on earth, according to a Credit Suisse report.

The Credit Suisse report also notes the European sovereign debt crisis is not expected to stop a new generation of millionaires emerging in the next five years, with the greatest wealth growth likely to occur in the booming Asia – Pacific (that would be Australia.)

BUY PRINT

We sent our Virtual Realty News eye in the sky Tim Mooney to capture The Trots given Hot to trot: latest inner west housing development a ‘game changer’. The Harold Park venue for the trots is  about to become one of Sydney’s largest inner–city housing developments – 1,250 new prestige apartments and terraces that will push up property prices (great news for the property markets). Mirvac is developing the site and will also be creating a 20 – hectare green belt linking Bicentennial Park to Blackwattle Bay.

Uncertainty clouds start of spring auction season grabbed my attention when the Westpac – Melbourne Institute quarterly house price expectation index fell to 9 in October, from a reading of 15.3 in the three months to July. This was its lowest level since May 2009, with doubts about the housing market lingering. This is a national measure so with interest, I noted that 38.7 per cent see prices rising in the next twelve months and 31.5 per cent see them unchanged. Almost one – third (29.8 per cent) predicted falls over the next year, so 70.2 per cent see prices increasing or remaining steady over the next twelve months. Quite funny that real estate is a long term hold not a short term play which was recently evidenced with the reality price failures of The Block and The Renovators on television.

Even the ‘World’s Greatest Treasurer’ was drawn into the debate with Wayne Swan telling the ABC that he doesn’t agree with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report which indicates Australia’s house prices are overvalued by ten to fifteen per cent. The RBA has plenty of room to move on Australia’s cash rate which presently sits at 4.75 per cent. Last week SQM Research disclosed that Australia has 362,793 houses for sale – Mosman contributed just 133 which was an increase of 24.3 per cent on the same time last year.

The last Census report in 2007 identified that in Australia, thirty per cent rent, so it was interesting to read the Australian Property Monitors – Rental Report where only Sydney recorded growth in unit median weekly asking prices for the quarter of 2.2 per cent.

Lower North Shore has it all for renters – but at a cost as rents soar in major cities as Sydney rents rocket by 13 per cent: report.We have a population in the fastest growth mode yet residential building down 5.3 per cent in June in  quarter. So do the mathematics about supply V demand.  It’s simple and a no – brainer. So Australia’s greatest property pest Steve Keen is back at it again – Property prices to fall 20% by 2013 yer’s end: Steve Keen. A property guru who sold his $500,000 (plus a bit) apartment on South Dowling Street based on his global financial crisis predictions that property prices would fall by 40 per cent back on September 2008.   In my opinion, in Australia, he is the court jester of real estate, but given the Sydney rental data we have published, he has in all probability decided to buy back in?

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 115
• Number of houses on the market this week – 133
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 78
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 86

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 16
• Number of houses on the market this week – 15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 34
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 36

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 15
• Number of houses on the market this week – 17
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 80
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 83

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate - Click Here

I have gone easy on Julia Gillard’s Fort Fumble or should that read Fort F*&! – up as the political hit has been arranged – it’s a Right mess for Julia Gillard as Labor factions fight. The powerful NSW Right which also destroyed NSW has allegedly activated another political assassination. Ironic they had the terminal finger on the trigger to remove Kevin Rudd and they now intend to do the same to their anointed replacement.

History shows that Australia’s property markets respond much better under the alternate government – maybe property buyers should read into that?

Cheers ^__^

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21.10.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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Although the same can’t be said for Julia Gillard’s Fort Fumble – Malaysia solution backfires for government that failed to do its homework. If Kevin Rudd “lost his way”, Julia Gillard’s reign as Australian Prime Minister has been nothing short of an abysmal failure. The Labor government is spiralling uncontrollably on a course of self destruction – déjà vu NSW Labor March election 2011. The stench of failure haunts the ALP where many believe that it will be open season for people smugglers after High Court scuttles Gillard government’s Malaysian Solution. The clock is ticking with a Labor stalwart predicting ten months and Labor’s gone: Richardson.

Julia Gillard not only unpopular, she also lacks authority – John Howard the Prime Minister will now struggle to remain at The Lodge post Christmas. Peter Costello entered the economic discussion this week when he wrote in The Sydney Morning Herald – Without a carbon tax, steel industry jobs might stand a chance. Looking forward, I believe that at this point in time a carbon tax will struggle to see the light of day. It is a case of simply joining the dots given Treasury warned in 2009 of higher Aussie dollars likely impact on manufacturing which in all probability would explain why the government rejects calls for manufacturing probe.

The greatest problem with the Gillard government is that it is politically deaf! To such an extent that Rudd last man standing in Labor rout: poll where Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd would be the only federal Labor MP left in Queensland if an election was held this week. Which got a bit more interesting given former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie will consider a run for Prime Minister. So, Beattie for PM? Gillard laughs it off.

BUY PRINT

Sydney housing property defies national downturn to record price increase RP Data Rismark Home Value Index found defies national downturn to where over the year to July, values in capital cities are down 2.9 per cent. Brisbane – 6.6 per cent, Perth – 6.3 per cent, Melbourne – 4.3 per cent, while Canberra + 1.9 per cent and Sydney + 0.5 per cent which explains why, home loans grow at slowest pace on record. In Sydney we are really witnessing fascinating market machinations where last weekend, Sydney had 362 auctions (down nearly twenty per cent on the same time last year).

Vendors aren’t selling which has led to rents increasing by up to eight per cent over the year an expected result with record low vacancy rates. Urban Taskforce CEO Aaron Gadiel estimates Sydney’s housing supply shortfall at 46,000 homes and predicts it will double within three years.  “We’ve seen three straight months where NSW private sector home approvals have trended down by more than 4 per cent a month.”

The slowing market convincing home owners to stay put which is actually a positive sign where Mosman has the lowest delinquency rate in NSW. Which takes me to a great debate over at Property Observer between Steve Keen and Christopher Joye, when Keen wrote, China our one saving grace as Australia’s debt- driven love affair with house prices faces the chopping block. Christopher Joye responded housing prices aren’t for the chopping block, despite the Steve Keen prophecy. As Christopher Joye points out – “Like most of Keen’s predictions, such as the “best – case scenario’’ during the GFC being 11 per cent unemployment and a recession “more severe than 1990 and lasting 1.5 times as long” (unemployment peaked at 5.8 per cent while there was no recession), his 2008 predictions proved way wide of the mark. For the record, Australian dwelling prices are today 13.3 per cent higher than the level at which Keen put his reputation on the chopping block, and 89 per cent higher than the level at which Keen expected them to be.

MOSMAN – 2088

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 105
• Number of houses on the market this week – 107
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 99
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 93

CREMORNE – 2090

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 13
• Number of houses on the market this week – 14
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 31

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 7
• Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 70
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 67

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here It is interesting to note from the past week’s activity that we are starting to see activity above the $5,000,000 mark again.

I was amazed to read Federal MP Rob Oakeshott says Australia should consider a road congestion tax when the reason why we have congestion is because governments have failed to spend on road/transport infrastructure. Obviously, he did not read the article I filed this week on Property Observer – Stupid property taxes should not be a revenue stream for weak governments.

Source: The Australian

Cheers ^__^

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2.09.11Robert Simeon5 Comments »

Get set for a roller coaster ride through to Christmas (and beyond) where once again it will be the financial markets, not property markets that will attract all the attention. Thanks to the global financial crisis (GFC) we can say to some extent that we have been there and done that – what remains to be seen is how destructive phase ll will be? It looks like being horrific for Europe and the United States.

“A more severe crash than the one triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers could be on the way, according to alarm signals in the credit markets. The cost of insuring RBS bonds is now higher than before the taxpayer was forced to step in and rescue the bank in 2008” – market crash ‘could hit within weeks’, warn bankers. This week ANZ chief executive warned World on edge of crisis where he labelled Europe “a mess” and warned that failure by political leaders to tackle economic problems could lead to a much greater global crisis.

Back home there have been some fascinating observations on the political consequences of Australia’s resources boom where the Gillard government is fast-learning that there is more to life than just mining. Labor turns the boom into a crisis a great insight by Paul Kelly, Editor – at – large The Australian. “The crisis now engulfing Australian manufacturing has been long predicted and much foreseen yet the inescapable impression is that our decision – makers have been taken by surprise and are scrambling to do something.”

The government has been caught out and the observers on the hill are not impressed.

BUY PRINT

It would be fair to suggest that we are at critical crossroads although Australia’s public debt to GDP ratio is among the healthiest in the OECD at approximately 22 per cent. Sentiment has Fort Fumble not governing, drowning with Julia Gillard back to rock bottom: Newspoll. The ongoing Craig Thomson prostitution scandal further ignites: hard questions will not go away. I don’t believe it will bring the government down – see you Thomson, raise you Wilkie so Australia’s government now hangs on the actions of just two individuals. The flip side – Crean for PM? Why the bookies think it’s not so far fetched. Whatever the case Graham Richardson says the ‘awful smell’ of the Thomson affair won’t go away. Just over 365 days ago the ‘new paradigm’ is looking as vibrant as Australia’s manufacturing industry.

A minority government has proved to be an abysmal failure which has been reinforced in the polls and the reality that Australia’s Prime Minister has until Christmas to turn things around. If you look at Australia’s political history, John Howard lost the 2007 election when he ran Work Choices. Kevin Rudd was done and dusted on the hopeless handling of the mining tax and Julia Gillard will fall over her carbon pricing scheme.

Source: The Australian

Residential and commercial construction remains in the doldrums, according to the latest ABS statistics new home building slumps in June quarter. Obviously “building a better Australia” does not apply to residential and commercial construction? Three population bubbles will cause housing demand, not supply, to skyrocket even though it’s fascinating that rising inflation makes housing more affordable. Well we are not building, so I have to agree with Christopher Joye that house prices will be 55% higher in a decade.

Last week, we revealed the Mosman clearance rates for houses so this week we investigated the adjusted clearance rates for apartments and townhouses. Having looked at the data results from RWM Research Department, I wonder if Mosman has the lowest clearance rates in Sydney.

Here are the Mosman townhouse/apartment sales from 2001 to 2011 – just like the house statistics they failed to reach 50 per cent.

Source: Domain Property Data

• 2001 – 106 auctioned, 52 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 44%
• 2002 – 114 auctioned, 66 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 49%
• 2003 – 96 auctioned, 47 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 42%
• 2004 – 66 auctioned, 25 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 28%
• 2005 – 89 auctioned, 31 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 29%
• 2006 – 74 auctioned, 31 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 30%
• 2007 – 62 auctioned, 38 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 47%
• 2008 – 95 auctioned, 43 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 37%
• 2009 – 41 auctioned, 16 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 27%
• 2010 – 77 auctioned, 38 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 38%
• 2011 – 48 auctioned, 23 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 33%

MOSMAN – 2088

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 103
• Number of houses on the market this week – 105
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 98
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 99

CREMORNE – 2090

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week – 13
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 30

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

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• Number of houses on the market last week– 9
• Number of houses on the market this week – 7
• Number of apartments on the market  – 70
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 70

Now this is where it gets interesting – if the Mosman housing market is as strong as we believe it to be the number of houses available should start reducing over the next month.

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

We have been asked to use our database to try and assist finding Daniel who went missing six weeks ago – so if you please see him follow the contact details on the Facebook page – Daniel O’Keeffe.

Let’s hope that next week, the discussion is about economics and not a politician’s callisthenics with prostitutes.  Or should that be a wandering wallet!!

Cheers ^__^

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26.08.11Robert Simeon5 Comments »

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The anniversary of Kevin Rudd’s political assassination last week, was far reaching. I was fascinated to read – “the final nail – Graham Richardson reveals coup but says Julia Gillard faces ‘slaughter’ in The Daily Telegraph. I doubt even Graham Richardson would have believed that since his announcement the Gillard’s government’s handling of the Australian economy has gone from bad to atrocious.

I wrote last week in Virtual Realty News that my Canberra mole advised me that the prime minister has just six months to prove her credibility before a ‘position vacant’ sign appeared at The Lodge. I was not surprised to read this week that key Labor backbenchers are privately warning Julia Gillard that she has six months to turn around the government’s performance. How do you turn around a tsunami? The prime minister is collapsing under the pressure – Gillard slips up on carbon compensation. Then Julia Gillard’s goose is looking cooked; so back to square one I didn’t mean to mislead on carbon: PM.

Then Senate report urges scrapping of MRRT – the prime minister’s personal negotiation to resolve the ugly miners’ anti – government advertising campaign which combined to bring Kevin Rudd down. Julia Gillard’s government is now spiralling out of control – just look at the live cattle debacle where again the Gillard government capitulated to the Greens and where we now see a $30m hardship package for cattle industry. There are approximately 700 abattoirs in Indonesia and the ABC conveniently stumbles upon a few who are committing atrocious acts on Australian live stock.

A $320 million a year Australian business shut down overnight – now we see a $30 million hardship package which justifiably will be followed up with an enormous class action against the Gillard government – another huge taxpayer cost. PM, Rudd take on live cattle crisis this is hilarious given they can’t stand one another. Senator Ludwig who is hopelessly handling this debacle gave Indonesian officials the first Australian government draft of animal welfare standards in – English. Which they could not read so he later had to follow up with an Indonesian translation! DOH!

BUY PRINT

Tim shot this aerial last week – the vacant area to the upper right is what used to be known as The Block

Three of Australia’s top business leaders are calling for an early election, saying the Gillard government is causing economic uncertainty. John Symond, Gerry Harvey and John Singleton, revealed a consistent belief that constant negativity surrounding the government is weighing down on consumer confidence. The vast majority of Australians now want an early election: September 2011. If you live in NSW – this economy is consistently going backwards.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) report has Sydney’s population at 4,575,532 and climbing, yet NSW infrastructure remains in the doldrums. NSW keeps falling behind the other states and territories growing just 1.2 per cent last year to 7,272,200. Last year 94,668 NSW residents decided to relocate to another state while 83,425 moved into NSW – a net loss of 11,243.

Quite amazing that in this day and age NSW  now finds itself with more departures than arrivals.

The tools have been laid down as construction in Sydney is well behind the other Australian cities – it is becoming quite clear that we no longer have a culture for construction. The ABS reports that last year 27,655 houses and apartments were constructed in NSW. Victoria recorded 50,700 (nearly double NSW), 31,611 in Queensland and 22,315 in Western Australia. To make matters worse just 16,118 new houses were built in 2010, Victoria led the way again with 37,218, Queensland with 21,764 and Western Australia constructed 18,442. Sydney has the lowest vacancy rate for rental properties in Australia at just one per cent – the general rule of thumb is that this figure should sit between two and three percent. The rental vacancy rate will continue to decline forcing rents up further given just 19,111 dwellings were approved for construction in Sydney between July 2010 and May 2011. Spiralling rents are forcing families further west as they seek rental relief affordability.

Following up – on last week’s Mosman housing six month report for 2011 – here are the apartment statistics.

Data provided from Domain Property Data and RWM Research this data is from 1 January to 23 June for 2007/2010 and 2011.

Mosman – Total Number of Apartments for Sale

• 2007 – 357
• 2010 – 258 (a 27 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)
• 2011 – 232 (a 35 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)

Total Mosman Apartments Sold

• 2007 – 338
• 2010 – 243 (a 28 per cent reduction)
• 2011 – 215 (a 36 per cent reduction)

RWM Research: The Mosman housing market is actually defying the trending seen in other Sydney suburbs given the available volume of houses for sale is actually contracting.

Total Value of Mosman Apartments Sold

• 2007 – $274,113,101
• 2010 – $215,035,892
• 2011 – $151,475,500*

*denotes that 27 apartments have entered a zero sale price – the Total Value for 2011 is still months away from final determination.

Adjusted Mosman Auction Clearance Rate

• 2007 – 34 per cent
• 2010 – 39 per cent
• 2011 – 43 per cent

RWM Research: Mosman has one of the lowest if not the lowest auction clearance rates in Sydney.

Mosman Median Apartment Price

• 2007 – $520,000
• 2010 – $650,000
• 2011 – $610,500*

*denotes that 27 apartments have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Median Apartment Price is still months away from final determination.

Mosman Average Apartment Price

• 2007 – $820,697
• 2010 – $918,956
• 2011 – $805,720*

*denotes that 27 apartments have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Average Apartment Price is still months away from final determination.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 97
• Number of houses on the market this week – 87
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 99
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 97

RWM Research: The total number of houses for sale dropped below 100 last week and this week it has fallen below ninety – historic low supplies.

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week –  15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 33
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 33

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 9
• Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 65
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 67

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

I will leave you this week with a Letter to the Editor that appeared in The Daily Telegraph – “If the Gillard – led Labor Party had won the last election with enough seats to govern in its own right without the support of Bob Brown and the independents, we would not be discussing a carbon tax or poker machine reform. We are being governed by a group of self – interested people who are not listening to the needs of the Australian people.”

Kevin Rudd may have lost his way – Julia Gillard has lost Australia.

When the Gillard government finally announces its price on carbon: Australian industries will commence a relentless anti – Gillard government advertising campaign that will take the prime minister to historical lows in the polls.

Australia won’t get a carbon tax – it will have an election. When Tony Abbott suggested a plebiscite it was more a case of plant a seed, add water – and watch it grow.

Cheers ^__^

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1.07.11Robert Simeon7 Comments »

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Little wonder Julia Gillard’s Fort Fumble finds itself in such a dire position on her first anniversary as Prime Minister. No candle or cake cutting (sigh of relief), even worse no partying: Julia Gillard reveals – why I knifed Kevin Rudd. Twelve months on, Julia Gillard and Labor slump to new lows which would explain why, constant internal bickering is the real explanation it’s not personal, it’s  policy – why Labor is flatlining.

When I read Julia Gillard outlines her plans for survival I could not help but notice her quote about the reasoning behind Kevin Rudd’s knifing “it became clear to me in the crucible of those days that the Labor caucus wanted a different path and a different leader.” A contradiction of terms (maybe) as Julia Gillard tells caucus to be patient when the Fairfax – Nielsen poll revealed that Kevin Rudd preferred as ALP leader: poll. The party faithful (tongue in cheek) found very few positives for Gillard in horror poll.

Alas, a year on, Rudd would do things differently which was met with a somewhat tinge of sobriety as the faceless waiters dispensed caucus refreshments consisting only of lemon, lime and bitterness? No thanks, Kevin. Party politics suggests absolutely no renaissance period for their reborn leader unworkable. Expectations of many more lemon twists: given leadership talk is killing Labor, says Peter Beattie, as party rallies behind PM.

BUY PRINT

This is a one – off aerial capture of Royal Sydney Golf Club at Rose Bay. The new swimming pool is ready for summer although I’m not sure what they’re going to construct in the vacant area below it?

Our invaluable Virtual Realty News subscriber mail suggests Julia Gillard has six months to turn the polls around given the Labor Party finds itself at odds (not great ones either). Betstar have Julia Gillard at $1.65 to lead Labor to the next election with Assistant Treasurer Bill (shortening) Shorten next at $4, Climate Change pioneer Greg Combat (I meant Combet) and Kevin (scissor hands) Rudd at $7.50. Little wonder consumer confidence levels are in rapid decline, or should that be a rapid response to economic concerns?

The rise and rise of the Aussie dollar has appreciated 21.82 per cent during the last twelve months which explains why the expats have all but withdrawn from our real estate markets. Manufacturing and retail have been hit much harder which then resonates through to consumer confidence in the Australian economy. The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 2.6 per cent in June from 103.9 per cent in May to 101.2 in June. Trouble looms on the home front which is a natural progression moving on from consumer confidence declines – what remains to be seen is which real estate markets will remain in a holding pattern and those that will endure declines.

Winter chills price growth amid subdued auction sales reveals that in May 2011, the average discount rate for properties was 6.4 per cent, compared to 5.7 per cent in May last year. There is a twenty five per cent increase in the number of properties for sale in Sydney as compared to this time last year – I will get to Mosman shortly. During the first four months of 2011 only 8,271 home loans were approved for first – home buyers in NSW. This was the lowest number of loans recorded for the same period since 2004 and is sixty per cent less than the 20,982 first – home buyers recorded in the first four months of 2009.

Jonathan Chancellor’s Property Observer wrote this week home buyers and investors more hawkish than economists – 83 per cent of consumers expect rate rises over the next year, but that’s down on the 91 per cent recorded in February, according to the latest Westpac Melbourne index of Consumer Sentiment. This explains why the Reserve Bank plays a game of wait and see as household finances dive to the worst in at least 10 years.

I love all this data as it allows Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) to sell our market via our online technologies. If you are a purchaser (not just in Mosman) you are correct in thinking a property crash is gaining momentum. If a real estate agency does not use a blog in this modern era it simply identifies how behind the time their business model is – given it is imperative that our demographic market remains educated about what is actually happening in our Mosman market. The real reason why real estate agents don’t have blogs is that they can talk but struggle with writing – criteria just as important given selling is not 100 per cent based on speech.

Margie Blok wrote in Title Deeds last week – Mosman Millions and Modern marvel sold which prompted me to do a Mosman house sales analysis from 1 January to 23 June 2011. To make matters interesting I extrapolated data for the same period in 2010 and 2007 which was prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Remember there is a twenty five per cent increase in properties for sale in Sydney presently – as compared to this time last year.

Data provided from Domain Property Data and RWM Research this data is from 1 January to 23 June for 2007/2010 and 2011.

Mosman – Total Number of Houses for Sale

• 2007 – 232
• 2010 – 208 (a 10 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)
• 2011 – 161 (a 31 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)

Total Mosman Houses Sold

• 2007 – 211
• 2010 – 183 (a 13 per cent reduction)
• 2011 – 118 (a 44 per cent reduction)

RWM Research: The Mosman housing market is actually defying the trending seen in other Sydney suburbs given the available volume of houses for sale is actually contracting.

Total Value of Mosman Houses Sold

• 2007 – $565,505,720
• 2010 – $464,616,550
• 2011 – $198,296,000*

*denotes that 49 houses have entered a zero sale price – the Total Value for 2011 is still months away from final determination.

Adjusted Mosman Auction Clearance Rate

• 2007 – 40 per cent
• 2010 – 35 per cent
• 2011 – 32 per cent

RWM Research: Mosman has one of the lowest if not the lowest auction clearance rates in Sydney.

Mosman Median House Price

• 2007 – $2,260,000
• 2010 – $2,200,000
• 2011 – $2,100,000*

*denotes that 49 houses have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Median House Price is still months away from final determination.

Mosman Average House Price

• 2007 – $2,680,121
• 2010 – $2,685,644
• 2011 – 2,792,901*

*denotes that 49 houses have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Average House Price is still months away from final determination.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 104
• Number of houses on the market this week – 97
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 99
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 99

RWM Research: The total number of houses for sale dropped below 100 this week which would have to be the lowest number available in living memory

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week –  17
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 38
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 33

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 12
• Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 63
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 65

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Now you have the most exacting explanation of where the Mosman housing market currently sits.

It is precisely twelve months to the day that ‘The Emperor’ Kevin Rudd felt the long blade of Julia Gillard’s knife given “he had lost his way”. The Emperor even had to cancel his one year anniversary which was brilliantly captured by Bill Leak this week in The Australian.

The Australian- order Bill Leak’s print

Cheers ^__^

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24.06.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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Forget the last federal election that resulted in a hopeless hung parliament – the new rule is incarcerated in people speak – hallelujah as “united we stand – divided we fall.” Despite what politicians may say with bated breath – polls threaten their very own livelihoods as much as they threaten our right to agree or disagree. Left field policy announcements within the Rudd/Gillard regime has been met with aggression that resurrected – if you don’t like it run an advertising campaign first initiated by the mining companies.

Politicians want to be in the limelight – not a back drop hidden within a party struggling for that voter point of difference whilst in Opposition. It is interesting to note that parties in Opposition burn leaders with regularity given when Bob Hawke was Prime Minister (1983 – 1991) the Liberal Party went through four Opposition leaders, Andrew Peacock (1983 – 1985), John Howard (1985 – 1989), Andrew Peacock (1989 – 1990) and John Hewson (1990 – 1994). When Paul Keating was elected Prime Minister (1991 – 1996) he saw off John Hewson (1990 – 1994), Alexander Downer (1994 – 1995) then lost the 1996 Federal election to John Howard (1995 – 2007). Federal Labor then waved good bye to Kim Beazley (1996 – 2001), Simon Crean (2001 – 2003), Mark Latham (2003 – 2005) and Kim Beazley (2005 – 2006). Enter Kevin Rudd (2006 – 2010), Brendan Nelson (2007 – 2008), Malcolm Turnbull (2008 – 2009) then Tony Abbott (2009 – present).

Julia Gillard removed Kevin Rudd on (24 June 2010 – present) which is the first example of an elected Government burning a Prime Minister. Now we see (Labor worries as PM struggles) and even stranger Labor hits a 15 – year low but Rudd wins where the HeraldNielsen poll now has Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull as the preferred party leaders! Since 1983, Australia has had five Prime Ministers and twelve Opposition leaders with Kevin Rudd becoming just the second Prime Minister to serve just the one term and Julia Gillard fast tracking becoming the third. Federal Labor has now had two Prime Ministers in four years and NSW Labor had four Premiers in four years – a pattern forming?

BUY PRINT

Let’s face it the Carbon Tax is a monumental debacle of mammoth proportion with many questions being asked – well Prime Minister, let’s see if you can hold your nerve. As key union puts Julia Gillard on notice over carbon tax which means that Julia Gillard’s carbon hopes up in smoke. Resembling an all in – brawl as food giants join war on carbon tax a great read on Carbon Tax is learning the hard way: Australia’s policies to reduce emissions – Grattan Institute. Throw in another major problem in that the Gillard Government is now fighting a bewildering array of battles, as it fashions a budget bound to open more fronts – budget blues.

Chris Richardson, Deloitte Access Economics: “The Global Financial Crisis was not a drama for our economy. It was and is still a drama for the Budget.”

Chris Uhlmann: The last forecast said this year’s deficit would land at $41 billion in the red. Next year the projected budget is 412 billion. But slowing growth and falling company and income tax receipts now mean those numbers are too rosy. With the Budget just weeks away, this year’s deficit will be worse.”

Chris Richardson: “Looking at the budget as a rolling 12 – month total, at its worst, it was a little bit over $60 billion in deficit. But that’s more or less where it still is.”

Which would then explain why Wayne Swan leaked figures showing $13bn slump in growth: Hockey. Back to that white board and “Building a better Australia.” As Julia told us!

Source: The Australian

Which brings us to the NBN Co debacle given Fort Fumble has temporarily terminated connections as business chief slams NBN rollout describing it as a squandered opportunity and one of the worst examples of pork – barrelling.  This should not come as any great surprise given Fort Fumble spent $2.5 billion on roof batts, $16 billion on the overpriced BER and spending $50 billion on the NBN Co – without a cost benefit study. Given it has now been halted due to blow – outs Fort Fumble is now considering a … wait for it…. NBN may accept greater risk which translates into greater debt and yet another debacle which would explain why it is currently suspended.

RBA minutes point to rates staying put which means that reading between the lines the cash rate won’t be moved until sometime within the December Quarter 2011. The months of October, November and December will see some upward movement(s) of the official cash rate. With the Federal fudge (oops I meant to say budget) to be released early next month it appears that Wayne Swan is about to announce that forecast growth will drop significantly from the earlier projected figure of 3.25 per cent to 2.25 per cent. That then would equate to a one per cent drop in Australia’s $1.3 trillion economy so the black hole is then $13 billion. Yes the Federal budget will be ugly but not as ugly as the manner in which Fort Fumble has handled Australia’s finances.

NSW ranks bottom in economic momentum as costs eat into savings, and sense of security which means that Barry O’Farrell has plenty of work ahead to rejuvenate and renovate the previous number one economy in Australia. A huge announcement this week: Barry O’Farrell’s pledge to put lid on power which is in stark contrast to the now collapsed Fort Crumble who pinched $15 billion in dividends and put nothing back into electricity – dividend freeze a crucial step.

New home loan numbers plunge: John Symond as residential property prices peaked in 2010 and will continue cooling in the next six months as big mortgage brokers report a 20 per cent drop in loan numbers. It’s too early to extrapolate the January – March 2010 figures against the January – March 2011 sales results – we will do that in a few week’s time as they are still being processed.

In the meantime here are the Mosman house sales and total value for the last ten years from 2000 – 2010 which is a Mosman first and Virtual Realty News exclusive.

Source: Domain Property Data

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES AND TOTAL VALUE – 2000 TO 2010

• 2000 – House Sales: 336 Total Value Of All House Sales: $464,002,395
• 2001 – House Sales: 413 Total Value Of All House Sales: $709,864,118
• 2002 – House Sales: 358 Total Value Of All House Sales: $723,591,555
• 2003 – House Sales: 359 Total Value Of All House Sales: $829,527,432
• 2004 – House Sales: 300 Total Value Of All House Sales: $677,939,257
• 2005 – House Sales: 293 Total Value Of All House Sales: $692,071,000
• 2006 – House Sales: 380 Total Value Of All House Sales: $947,918,130
• 2007 – House Sales: 395 Total Value Of All House Sales: $1,153,099,720
• 2008 – House Sales: 255 Total Value Of All House Sales: $867,925,612
• 2009 – House Sales: 299 Total Value Of All House Sales: $789,424,751
• 2010 – House Sales: 333 Total Value Of All House Sales: $870,181,155

RWM Research: In 2007 Mosman broke the $1 Billion mark for the total value of houses sold in a calendar year with 395 houses selling – also the record.

Next week, we will look at the average and median prices for Mosman houses from 2000 – 2010. As well as scrutinise the upcoming Federal Budget. ‘Wayne’s World’ is suffering as he has lost those ‘rivers of gold’ where many point a finger at his self-created ‘rivers of waste’.

Have a fantastic and safe Easter – savour and share our ANZAC spirit.

“Lest We Forget”

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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21.04.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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Had to agree with Mungo MacCullum when he wrote this week – Has Australian politics ever been more depressing? To such an extent that even Rudd, Turnbull overshadow leaders in poll. Add a NSW state election next week where Premier Bambi is learning fast  that in NSW they like her, but don’t rate her. At least Barry O’Farrell announced “if we don’t deliver, kick us out” which is no doubt a stinging rebuke at Julia Gillard who prefers to pursue policies of lies and deception.

The key is consistency, Labor is lacking where the only thing consistent with our Prime Minister is an inability to lead. Carbon Tax, border protection, health, mining tax announcements all remain  atop of the in–tray, none of which are resolved. Throw in pokies cost – benefit study could make reforms tougher, threatening Labor alliance with Wilkie. Now the Prime Minister is taking on 7,500 pubs and clubs in Australia to appease one “Green vote”. The odds against Australia’s 27^th Prime Minister are shortening. Clue?

When Newspoll results are revealed next Tuesday, the “faceless men” will again come to the fore (somewhat identical to our Australian economy). A carbon tax really needs a mandate to become a reality.  Should Julia Gillard be removed (it could happen) Australia’s most unpopular government ever, has a – rocky road ahead. We all know that the carbon tax is hurting Labor: Nathan Rees as Gillard running out of options on carbon tax as attempts to sell it fail. What will be interesting is to see if tax payer monies are spent advertising her new tax when no monies were available to alleviate a flood tax?

BUY PRINT

Wolseley Road is the world’s ninth priciest in the world which equates to approximately $20,500 a square metre value based on recent comparable sales.  Australia’s number one address for residential real estate?   I still can’t go by Balmoral as my preferred location.

Emissions charges ‘to skyrocket’ by between 118 per cent to 315 per cent when the carbon tax converts to an emissions trading scheme, according to new modelling conducted for the resources industry. In an extraordinary back–flip, Julia Gillard turns on Greens in carbon tax debate which suggests our prime minister has become delusional and is drowning in her deceptions .

Source: The Australian

Interesting to note that property hits new records which further explains why house prices ‘too high for cops, teachers which is easily explained by governments ignoring transport infrastructure where Sydney has the most million – dollar properties.

So let’s look at Mosman house price movement from 1999 to 2010. This week we look at price movements from 1999 to 2004. Next week 2005 to 2010 where market movements are staggering, considering  that all was rosy until the global financial crisis.

1999 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 1
• Total Value – $6,400,000
• Average Price – $6,400,000
• Highest Price – $6,400,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research observations: With hindsight, this sale was a historical moment for Mosman top – end properties where this acquisition was amalgamated with the adjoining property (acquired earlier) to create today, Mosman’s most expensive landholding (nearly 6,000 square metres). This was also the beginning of site consolidations along Hopetoun Avenue.
Source: Domain Property Data

2000 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 4
• Total Value – $22,550,000
• House Sales – $5,000,000 – $5,999,000 – 4
• Average Price – $5,637,500
• Highest Price – $5,900,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research observations: Three sales on The Esplanade and one on Burran Avenue for $5,600,000. The $5,000,000 + markets are now starting to gain momentum.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2001 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 14
• Total Value – $91,860,000
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 7
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 3
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 2
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 -1
• House Sales $15,000,000 to $15,999,000 -1
• Average Price – $6,561,428
• Highest Price – $15,500,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 57 per cent

RWM Research observations: This was the first time Mosman broke the double digit top–end sales market – much like first on the real estate moon. RWM was the first agency to break the $10,000,000 + real estate market.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2002 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of Houses Sold – 12
• Total Value – $79,050,000
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 5
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 3
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 2
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 1
• Average Price – $6,587,500
• Highest Price – $9,400,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent

RWM Research observations: Sales fell from 14 to 12 and the average price above $5,000,000 consolidated. It should be noted that no properties sold in excess of $10,000,000 with $9,400,000 being the highest recorded sale.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2003 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of Houses Sold – 25
• Total Value – $157,900,250
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 14
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 8
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $11,000,000 to $11,999,000 – 1
• Average Price – $6,316,000
• Highest Price – $11,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent

RWM Research: Sales more than doubled to 25 although the average price reduced marginally. This consumer sentiment heralded that the Mosman top – end markets were alive and well. For the time being “money was not an object” money was the lifestyle where the two resided in harmony.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2004 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000.000

• Number of Houses Sold – 18
• Total Value – $124,951,000
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 6
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 9
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 0
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 0
• House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 0
• House Sales $10,000 to $10,999,000 – 2
• House Sales $11,000,000 to $11,999,000 – 1
• Average Price – $6,941,722
• liHighest Price – $11,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research: Top end auctions non–existent with the average prices showing a marginal increase. Sales volume down from 25 to 18 as was the total value sold from $157,900,250 to $124,951,000. Three sales in excess of $10,000,000.
Source: Domain Property Data

A strong possibility that in 2011, the highest sale will be below $10,000,000 – interesting to see what happened to top – end properties in Mosman during the global financial crisis. All revealed in next week’s edition.

Watch the Newspoll results next Tuesday – should her popularity continue to decline (to record lows) her position as prime minister will be all but untenable. I stand by my prediction that by Easter we will have yet another prime minister. Kristina Keneally gone next weekend and Gillard recording the lowest-ever approval rating as a prime minister in Australia’s political history.

Strong possiblity of a challenge next week – The Emperor (KRudd) wants to attend the Royal wedding.

Cheers ^__^

Take a look at look at this week’s property results which is indicative of what happens with new taxes and disasters

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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18.03.11Robert Simeon30 Comments »

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On one hand we have a federal government and on the other, state/territory governments and today, the left hand has no idea what the right is doing. Back–flips in politics these days are nearly as frequent as another installation of a red light speeding camera on our roads – Government backs down on health GST deal. After months and months of political rhetoric Julia Gillard proposes 50 – 50 hospital deal then surprise, surprise as Tony Abbott says Julia Gillard revamped health reform package is yet another back down. Next a constitutional crisis was averted as Abbott concocts constitutional strife with crossbench offer for rural students bringing yet another back– flip as Labor backs down on youth allowance, admitting faults in scheme for regional students. This back – flip set another extraordinary political precedent given the Julia Gillard cave – in heads off crushing defeat.

Sitting well above ground, the Governor for Moolah announced to his fellow Australian shareholders that interest rates are where they should be. Unlike Fort Fumble, which is carefully manoeuvring itself from a dastardly week of failed policy capitulations, the Governor says mining the focus, not floods. On the flip– side, our Gov urges Australians to keep saving and shareholders should see that statement as a clue, given our household debt is high.We need to be realistic given nothing will stop prices soaring as an Australian Industry Group announced that the annual bill for a typical Sydney household will climb from $1,257 to $2,012 between 2009 – 10 and 2012 -13.

BUY PRINT

You can erase policy fails to keep up with the boom given the ALP is earnestly pursuing a self proclaimed renaissance – ALP’s plan to reverse membership slump would give supporters a say in pre – selections. Fascinating theatrevin Rudd takes aim at party’s faction culture; wants party’s full review made public a self-proclaimed communist Julia Gillard rejects Rudd’s call to release election review. Which no doubt would have caused face flushes when it was revealed ALP – take a Bex, Gillard tells union heavyweights who just so happen to be the anointed ones who fast tracked the demise of The Emperor – one KRudd. Somewhat riveting, in that The Emperor – Kevin Rudd takes aim at party’s culture; wants party’s full review made public a self proclaimed communist Julia Gillard rejects Rudd’s call to release election review. Which no doubt would have caused face flushes when it was revealed ALP numbers all point the wrong way.

Australia to have carbon price from July 1. 2012, Julia Gillard announces. Now hold on a moment! In the run–up to the last federal election, Gillard ruled out a carbon tax? Not much clear in Gillard and Greens carbon framework given the key differences between the Greens, Labor and the independents that still need to be resolved. Nothing has been decided, nothing has been achieved – just another announcement hence people’s revolt looms on Australian carbon tax, Tony Abbott predicts.

The show goes on and hold your seat – Infrastructure Australia has all but derailed which is an adoptive analogy for our inept, floundering and totally incompetent NSW government. “The Gillard government’s confirmation that it will contribute $2.1 billion to building the Epping – Parramatta railway line in suburban Sydney will probably not help Labor in NSW, but it has delivered a fatal blow to the credibility of Infrastructure Australia.”Labor election strategy in chaos as voters cut Keneally loose with their primary vote down to 23 per cent and getting worse – one month tomorrow until NSW goes to the polls. Not only (according to the polls) is Keneally gone, the result will be the greatest hiding in Australian electoral history. Power sale ‘will raise only $700m’ a tad down from the predicted $5 billion – I refer you back to this week’s photo by the great Tim Mooney (with a few strikes of genius).

Last week, we commenced our exclusive breakdown of Mosman house prices from 1999 to 2010. In last week’s edition of <em>Virtual Realty News</em> we covered house prices from 1999 to 2005 up to $5.000 million – here are the 2006 to 2010 results. The data has been downloaded from <em>Domain Property Data</em> and calibrated by <em>RWM Property Research.</em>

2006 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 352
• Total Value – $742,885,130
• Median Price – $1,855,000
• Average Price – $2,110,469
• Highest Price – $15,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 48
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 146
• House sales above $2,000,000 – 86
• House sales above $3,000,000 – 45
• House sales above $4,000,000 – 27

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 7.1 per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 48 which is approximately 13.5 per cent of total sales. The average price increased from $2,017,809 to $2,105,327. Auction clearance rates increased from 36 per cent to 40 per cent.

2007 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 356
• Total Value – $815,749,720
• Median Price – $2,165,000
• Average Price – $2,291,431
• Highest Price – $22,500,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 57 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 28
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 126
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 111
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 53
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 38

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 7.2 per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 28 which is approximately 7.8 per cent of total sales. The average price increased from $2,110,469 to $2,291,431. Auction clearance rates increased from 40 per cent to 57 per cent.

2008 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 231
• Total Value – $523,725,612
• Median Price – $2,200,000
• Average Price – $2,267,210
• Highest Price –$14,700,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 35 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 25
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 83
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 71
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 30
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 22

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 4.7 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 25 which is approximately 10 per cent of sales. The average price dropped from $2,291,431 to $2,267,210. Auction clearance rates dropped from 57 per cent to 35 per cent.

2009 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 277
• Total Value – 630,499,751
• Median Price – $2,085,000
• Average Price – $2,276,172
• Highest Price – $13,200,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 42 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 18
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 114
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 83
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 36

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 5.5 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 18 so 6.5 per cent sold. The average price increased marginally from $2,267,210 to $2,276,172. Auction clearance rates increased from 25 per cent to 42 per cent.

2010 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 299
• Total Value – $704,286,155
• Median Price – $2,100,000
• Average Price – $2,355,472
• Highest Price – $12,600,000 (RWM)
• ,Auction Clearance Rate – 42 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 9
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 112
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 86
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 58
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 34

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 6.1 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 9 which is approximately 3.00 per cent of sales. In 1999 sales up to $999,999 made up 88.5 per cent of sales. The average price continued to climb ever so slowly to $2,355,472.

Next week we look at Mosman house sales above $5,000,000 from 1999 to 2010 and again we get a most interesting snapshot of how our top–end is travelling. It is doing much better than the combined efforts of Forts Crumble and Fumble.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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25.02.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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Stop for a moment and consider your weekly participation in online polls.   Do they give you a better understanding of the  impact  they may have on our  political decision-making process?  Annabel Crabb the ABC’s Online chief political writer, hit the nail on the head this week when she wrote – My name is Annabel. I’m a pollaholic. “And what could be more democratic than acquainting oneself regularly with the tabulated views of the community at large?” We participate in these polls out of curiosity and await the results in the hope that we remain in tune with our values and perceptions. Politicians react immediately when the general public judge them (and their perceptions) as deceitful or, these days, as being “out of touch with the electorate”.

Alas – the decision making process for 2011 and beyond.

Such is the impact of our brave new world – a classic example voters back Julia Gillard’s flood levy where the first federal Newspoll for 2011 revealed that 55 per cent of Australians support the new tax. Just as interesting are the 73 per cent of Labor voters in favour and the 62 per cent of Coalition supporters who are against it. The major problem with the Gillard/Swan levy is that already, so many have donated.  So it’s a double–dip, especially when it came to light that  Taxpayers foot the bill for Queensland’s incompetence.

BUY PRINT

When questioned about Anna Bligh’s failure to take out an insurance policy against natural disasters (which every other state and territory within Australia does)  Julia Gillard said Queensland’s lack of insurance for its assets was “a matter for Queensland”. DOH! Julia, if that is the case, why then impose a national levy for government incompetence? If the rest of Australia has to bail out the government, then Anna Bligh should resign on the grounds of total incompetence.

Obviously Julia Gillard is listening intently on her i Pod  to “Julie Julie Julie – do you love me” and those wretched polls are as appealling as her dulcet  tone.  No doubt Julia was glued to the ABC this week when Four Corners ran The Real Julia. “Tonight we’re going to focus on the leadership of Prime Minister Julia Gillard, with the year’s first poll reminding us again that Labor and its leader are struggling”. Q&A followed, with playwright David Williamson commenting “Well, she’s acting very badly. That’s all I’m saying. I said that what she comes across as is a headmistress talking to a very, very dull class.” Julia must have been listening intently because the next day when Parliament resumed tears flow as Julia gets real.The online blogs went off “no she didn’t, I just watched it. Dry tears and fake crying, it was pathetic!”

School building data will soon be known where the suggested $2.600 billion of taxpayer–funded waste would have removed the need for a temporary flood levy. Throw in the $2.500 billion lost on the doomed Home Insulation debacle and we have $5.000 billion down the gurgler. Looks like Fort Fumble is about to get a name change with the announcement no more bungles, the PM insists – enter Fort Bungle. KRudd/Gillard Labor will go down as in Australian history as the government that spent the most, borrowed the most and then back flipped on the greatest number of policies. Even Julia doesn’t trust herself with public money so in the hope of circumventing  further bungles Prime Minister Julia Gillard asks Liberal John Fahey to scrutinise natural disaster recovery spending.

Taxpayers lead the world in funding Labor broadband bill as our imposed NBN report: one – tenth the speed at 24 times the price. Not sure what you think: I would prefer to see Australia spend the $36 billion on building the world’s best hospitals  instead of  very average broadband network.

Our property markets have started the 2011 year slow and steady. Buyers and sellers test the breeze – buyers hope that  prices will drop and vendors hope that  the Mosman market will increase by ten per cent!   Whilst our markets appear somewhat polarised by the incompetent governments of the day, it will be interesting to watch the change in sentiment when Fort Crumble’s Premier “Bambi” Keneally is rolled in next month’s election.

Our blackouts are third world combined with lies, damned lies and electricity policy given we have a Keneally imposed new crisis in NSW housing. In 2000 – 01, Sydney produced 7,731 housing lots at an average cost of $263 per square metre. In 2007 – 08 the number of housing lots had dropped to just 1,723 – 22 per cent of the 2000 – 01 levels – at an average price of $483 per square metre. Up almost 100 per cent. The Planning Minister then was Kristina Keneally who held that portfolio for three years.

If our broadband is that sick, then why was the 11^th and 12^th of December 2010 the highest recorded online shopping day in Australia’s history. I bet Anna Bligh has home insurance, so why did she not insure Queensland against catastrophes?  Julia Gillard appoints a Liberal to administer the flood/cyclone rebuilding simply because nobody in her cabinet has the ability to be manage it responsibly.

In the real business world a CEO resigns or is sacked when a business model goes belly–up. When will  politicians  adopt this ethic?  Cyclone Larry cost Australia $500 million.  Kristina Keneally blew that with the CBD Metro debacle.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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11.02.11Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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Ask any business owner what the key to business longevity is and nine times out of ten the answer will always be – customer service. It all started just before the running of the 150^th Melbourne Cup when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy decision.  The punters were shocked with this rate rise shock – the fourth increase in 2010. The cash rate increase was later to be described as the RBA makes pre-emptive strike, economists say. Then as quick as Americain down the Flemington track the Commonwealth Bank adds 45bp to home loan rate effective from today, citing “overall wholesale funding costs continue to increase as cheaper funding expires and is replaced with more expensive funding”. The banking stewards (otherwise known as politicians) were quick to saddle – up although opposition Treasurer Joe Hockey was already in a somewhat awkward and lonely canter.

A graph that has figured prominently in Virtual Realty News is the Household Estimates of 2007 – 08 which is the last Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) measure of Australian households that rent, own with a mortgage and own without a mortgage – which I call The Big Third Theory.

• The number that rent – 2,399,900 which equates to thirty (30) per cent.
• The number that own with a mortgage – 2,835,200 which equates to thirty six (36) per cent.
• The number that own without a mortgage – 2,679,200 which equates to thirty four (34) per cent.

Based on this anecdotal data where with each and every cash rate increase the impact affects sixty six (66) per cent or 5,079,100 Australian households. Politicians need to cease being statues.

BUY PRINT

Another Tim Mooney brilliant capture that would make a great front cover for Eastern Suburbs real estate agents’ Christmas cards – nothing beats a sensational aerial shot.

Credit card debt more common than mortgage debt and we all know that the Big Gang Theory of increased funding does not apply when they are already charging consumers around twenty (20) per cent. When the Melbourne Institute revealed their June quarter 2010 results they announced that for the first time since November 2006, credit card debt is the most common form of debt among Australian households, rather than mortgage debt. The number of households with credit card debt was 36.6 per cent, while 33.9 per cent had mortgage debt. Credit card rates should be at the very same rate as home mortgage rates.

Customer service is all about meaning business not being a mean business – The Big Gang Theory.

Joe Hockey has good idea, no – one takes notice given banks showing no rates restraint, despite massive profits so out came Joe Hockey’s Nine – Point Plan when he addressed the AIG Annual National Forum in Canberra on October 25 in Canberra – “It’s time to talk banking.” Banks, rates and regulations: who’s in charge here? As Westpac chief Gail Kelly calls for calm as anger builds over bank rate rises given the banks are wary of Hockey bandwagon. The irony being that just only last week it was Hockey who was copping the bashing when he suggested that he’d re – regulate interest rates. As Dennis Shanahan wrote in The Australian – It’s Hockey’s turn to bash Swan. “In just a few moments yesterday, Joe Hockey and the Coalition went from being buffoons to heroes. And Wayne Swan went from being economically and politically superior to being populist, ineffective and trailing the opposition Treasury spokesman on banking policy.” Out from the gates then jumped Wayne Swan flags banking reforms declaring the federal government would now announce banking reforms next month prompting Hockey “The Jockey” to demand release reform plan now – the “Big Fella” was now on a roll dining out on roasted swan.

There was still plenty happening within Fort Fumble’s home economics kitchen when Phillip Coorey from the Sydney Morning Herald revealed – Out in the cold: Rudd held fake budget meetings to stop leaks not to be confused with steamed leeks. “Kevin Rudd and his senior ministers were so suspicious of Lindsay Tanner that they used to hold fake pre – budget meetings to ensure their plans did not leak. According to accounts of meetings of the now abandoned Strategic Priorities and Budget Committee, nicknamed the gang of four, some meetings with Mr Tanner would deliberately be light on detail. After the meeting concluded and the then finance minister had left, the other three members of the committee – Mr Rudd, Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan – would reconvene and discuss their budget plans in detail.”

Lindsay Tanner is writing a book and I can’t wait to read that given the revelations say very little for Kevin Rudd’s schoolyard games amid financial crisis. I can’t ever remember reading a more damaging report about an elected Australian government’s economic credibility. I must admit that I have always been a Lindsay Tanner admirer – he was smart, to the point and definitely not a populist policy proponent.  Kevin Rudd denies holding fake budget meetings … why am I not the least surprised.

In the meantime, Australia is bathing in a budget surplus (not) as Labor racks up $25.2 billion deficit in just three months shadow minister for finance and debt reduction Andrew Robb reported. The latest government financial statement reveals a staggering budget deficit of $25.2 billion for the first three months of the financial year. “The government is banking on improvements in revenue to bring the budget back to surplus, yet this statement shows no signs of the level of improvement that will be required and therefore spending must be cut.” CommSec chief economist Craig James estimates that the underlying budget deficit in the year to September was a record $63.3 billion. “The main concern is that revenues are still tending sideways rather than showing signs of repair. Meanwhile, government spending is at record highs and showing no signs of stabilising.”

Without a doubt one of the smartest economic reports that I have read is Economic reform will curb pressure on rates which lays much of the blame for increased interest rates on inept government policies. “But while rate rises are a blunt instrument, they are just about the only way the RBA can suppress demand. With a rising dollar, which will depress exports other than minerals and energy production, it is an automatic stabiliser that will slow the economy. A far better solution would be for government to have invested in infrastructure – railways and ports – to increase the efficiency of exports and to have improved productivity in southeast Australia, which is not benefiting directly from the boom. But the Howard government spent the taxes raised by energy exports on its watch on welfare payments and Kevin Rudd threw money at unproductive job programs, as Julia Gillard is still doing.”

“In the current circumstances, the price of stalling economic reform will be more painful than interest rate rises”. Hence, building approvals slide more than expected in September with a 6.6 per cent fall – in the year to September building approvals were down 11.6 per cent.

So figures confirm building weak which is understandable given the Gillard government still has more than $6 billion to be spent with her Building Education Revolution. Don’t blame the Big Gang Theory entirely as we all know they suffer on compassionate grounds. The answer should not be directed to angry customers should switch banks: Gillard rather economic reform, and we all know what happened to the Henry Tax Review.

No wonder Australians want an election – now given both forms of government continue to ignore economic reform. It is becoming increasingly obvious that economics is not a strong point for either party of choice – hence the ongoing and growing budget deficit.

When it comes to Nation Building – Fort Fumble (Gillard) has lost the plot!

Subscriber sales jumped to $986,510,220 so we are closing in on the magic $1 billion in subscriber sales.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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5.11.10Robert Simeon6 Comments »