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Forget the last federal election that resulted in a hopeless hung parliament – the new rule is incarcerated in people speak – hallelujah as “united we stand – divided we fall.” Despite what politicians may say with bated breath – polls threaten their very own livelihoods as much as they threaten our right to agree or disagree. Left field policy announcements within the Rudd/Gillard regime has been met with aggression that resurrected – if you don’t like it run an advertising campaign first initiated by the mining companies.

Politicians want to be in the limelight – not a back drop hidden within a party struggling for that voter point of difference whilst in Opposition. It is interesting to note that parties in Opposition burn leaders with regularity given when Bob Hawke was Prime Minister (1983 – 1991) the Liberal Party went through four Opposition leaders, Andrew Peacock (1983 – 1985), John Howard (1985 – 1989), Andrew Peacock (1989 – 1990) and John Hewson (1990 – 1994). When Paul Keating was elected Prime Minister (1991 – 1996) he saw off John Hewson (1990 – 1994), Alexander Downer (1994 – 1995) then lost the 1996 Federal election to John Howard (1995 – 2007). Federal Labor then waved good bye to Kim Beazley (1996 – 2001), Simon Crean (2001 – 2003), Mark Latham (2003 – 2005) and Kim Beazley (2005 – 2006). Enter Kevin Rudd (2006 – 2010), Brendan Nelson (2007 – 2008), Malcolm Turnbull (2008 – 2009) then Tony Abbott (2009 – present).

Julia Gillard removed Kevin Rudd on (24 June 2010 – present) which is the first example of an elected Government burning a Prime Minister. Now we see (Labor worries as PM struggles) and even stranger Labor hits a 15 – year low but Rudd wins where the HeraldNielsen poll now has Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull as the preferred party leaders! Since 1983, Australia has had five Prime Ministers and twelve Opposition leaders with Kevin Rudd becoming just the second Prime Minister to serve just the one term and Julia Gillard fast tracking becoming the third. Federal Labor has now had two Prime Ministers in four years and NSW Labor had four Premiers in four years – a pattern forming?

BUY PRINT

Let’s face it the Carbon Tax is a monumental debacle of mammoth proportion with many questions being asked – well Prime Minister, let’s see if you can hold your nerve. As key union puts Julia Gillard on notice over carbon tax which means that Julia Gillard’s carbon hopes up in smoke. Resembling an all in – brawl as food giants join war on carbon tax a great read on Carbon Tax is learning the hard way: Australia’s policies to reduce emissions – Grattan Institute. Throw in another major problem in that the Gillard Government is now fighting a bewildering array of battles, as it fashions a budget bound to open more fronts – budget blues.

Chris Richardson, Deloitte Access Economics: “The Global Financial Crisis was not a drama for our economy. It was and is still a drama for the Budget.”

Chris Uhlmann: The last forecast said this year’s deficit would land at $41 billion in the red. Next year the projected budget is 412 billion. But slowing growth and falling company and income tax receipts now mean those numbers are too rosy. With the Budget just weeks away, this year’s deficit will be worse.”

Chris Richardson: “Looking at the budget as a rolling 12 – month total, at its worst, it was a little bit over $60 billion in deficit. But that’s more or less where it still is.”

Which would then explain why Wayne Swan leaked figures showing $13bn slump in growth: Hockey. Back to that white board and “Building a better Australia.” As Julia told us!

Source: The Australian

Which brings us to the NBN Co debacle given Fort Fumble has temporarily terminated connections as business chief slams NBN rollout describing it as a squandered opportunity and one of the worst examples of pork – barrelling.  This should not come as any great surprise given Fort Fumble spent $2.5 billion on roof batts, $16 billion on the overpriced BER and spending $50 billion on the NBN Co – without a cost benefit study. Given it has now been halted due to blow – outs Fort Fumble is now considering a … wait for it…. NBN may accept greater risk which translates into greater debt and yet another debacle which would explain why it is currently suspended.

RBA minutes point to rates staying put which means that reading between the lines the cash rate won’t be moved until sometime within the December Quarter 2011. The months of October, November and December will see some upward movement(s) of the official cash rate. With the Federal fudge (oops I meant to say budget) to be released early next month it appears that Wayne Swan is about to announce that forecast growth will drop significantly from the earlier projected figure of 3.25 per cent to 2.25 per cent. That then would equate to a one per cent drop in Australia’s $1.3 trillion economy so the black hole is then $13 billion. Yes the Federal budget will be ugly but not as ugly as the manner in which Fort Fumble has handled Australia’s finances.

NSW ranks bottom in economic momentum as costs eat into savings, and sense of security which means that Barry O’Farrell has plenty of work ahead to rejuvenate and renovate the previous number one economy in Australia. A huge announcement this week: Barry O’Farrell’s pledge to put lid on power which is in stark contrast to the now collapsed Fort Crumble who pinched $15 billion in dividends and put nothing back into electricity – dividend freeze a crucial step.

New home loan numbers plunge: John Symond as residential property prices peaked in 2010 and will continue cooling in the next six months as big mortgage brokers report a 20 per cent drop in loan numbers. It’s too early to extrapolate the January – March 2010 figures against the January – March 2011 sales results – we will do that in a few week’s time as they are still being processed.

In the meantime here are the Mosman house sales and total value for the last ten years from 2000 – 2010 which is a Mosman first and Virtual Realty News exclusive.

Source: Domain Property Data

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES AND TOTAL VALUE – 2000 TO 2010

• 2000 – House Sales: 336 Total Value Of All House Sales: $464,002,395
• 2001 – House Sales: 413 Total Value Of All House Sales: $709,864,118
• 2002 – House Sales: 358 Total Value Of All House Sales: $723,591,555
• 2003 – House Sales: 359 Total Value Of All House Sales: $829,527,432
• 2004 – House Sales: 300 Total Value Of All House Sales: $677,939,257
• 2005 – House Sales: 293 Total Value Of All House Sales: $692,071,000
• 2006 – House Sales: 380 Total Value Of All House Sales: $947,918,130
• 2007 – House Sales: 395 Total Value Of All House Sales: $1,153,099,720
• 2008 – House Sales: 255 Total Value Of All House Sales: $867,925,612
• 2009 – House Sales: 299 Total Value Of All House Sales: $789,424,751
• 2010 – House Sales: 333 Total Value Of All House Sales: $870,181,155

RWM Research: In 2007 Mosman broke the $1 Billion mark for the total value of houses sold in a calendar year with 395 houses selling – also the record.

Next week, we will look at the average and median prices for Mosman houses from 2000 – 2010. As well as scrutinise the upcoming Federal Budget. ‘Wayne’s World’ is suffering as he has lost those ‘rivers of gold’ where many point a finger at his self-created ‘rivers of waste’.

Have a fantastic and safe Easter – savour and share our ANZAC spirit.

“Lest We Forget”

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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21.04.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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Ask any business owner what the key to business longevity is and nine times out of ten the answer will always be – customer service. It all started just before the running of the 150^th Melbourne Cup when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy decision.  The punters were shocked with this rate rise shock – the fourth increase in 2010. The cash rate increase was later to be described as the RBA makes pre-emptive strike, economists say. Then as quick as Americain down the Flemington track the Commonwealth Bank adds 45bp to home loan rate effective from today, citing “overall wholesale funding costs continue to increase as cheaper funding expires and is replaced with more expensive funding”. The banking stewards (otherwise known as politicians) were quick to saddle – up although opposition Treasurer Joe Hockey was already in a somewhat awkward and lonely canter.

A graph that has figured prominently in Virtual Realty News is the Household Estimates of 2007 – 08 which is the last Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) measure of Australian households that rent, own with a mortgage and own without a mortgage – which I call The Big Third Theory.

• The number that rent – 2,399,900 which equates to thirty (30) per cent.
• The number that own with a mortgage – 2,835,200 which equates to thirty six (36) per cent.
• The number that own without a mortgage – 2,679,200 which equates to thirty four (34) per cent.

Based on this anecdotal data where with each and every cash rate increase the impact affects sixty six (66) per cent or 5,079,100 Australian households. Politicians need to cease being statues.

BUY PRINT

Another Tim Mooney brilliant capture that would make a great front cover for Eastern Suburbs real estate agents’ Christmas cards – nothing beats a sensational aerial shot.

Credit card debt more common than mortgage debt and we all know that the Big Gang Theory of increased funding does not apply when they are already charging consumers around twenty (20) per cent. When the Melbourne Institute revealed their June quarter 2010 results they announced that for the first time since November 2006, credit card debt is the most common form of debt among Australian households, rather than mortgage debt. The number of households with credit card debt was 36.6 per cent, while 33.9 per cent had mortgage debt. Credit card rates should be at the very same rate as home mortgage rates.

Customer service is all about meaning business not being a mean business – The Big Gang Theory.

Joe Hockey has good idea, no – one takes notice given banks showing no rates restraint, despite massive profits so out came Joe Hockey’s Nine – Point Plan when he addressed the AIG Annual National Forum in Canberra on October 25 in Canberra – “It’s time to talk banking.” Banks, rates and regulations: who’s in charge here? As Westpac chief Gail Kelly calls for calm as anger builds over bank rate rises given the banks are wary of Hockey bandwagon. The irony being that just only last week it was Hockey who was copping the bashing when he suggested that he’d re – regulate interest rates. As Dennis Shanahan wrote in The Australian – It’s Hockey’s turn to bash Swan. “In just a few moments yesterday, Joe Hockey and the Coalition went from being buffoons to heroes. And Wayne Swan went from being economically and politically superior to being populist, ineffective and trailing the opposition Treasury spokesman on banking policy.” Out from the gates then jumped Wayne Swan flags banking reforms declaring the federal government would now announce banking reforms next month prompting Hockey “The Jockey” to demand release reform plan now – the “Big Fella” was now on a roll dining out on roasted swan.

There was still plenty happening within Fort Fumble’s home economics kitchen when Phillip Coorey from the Sydney Morning Herald revealed – Out in the cold: Rudd held fake budget meetings to stop leaks not to be confused with steamed leeks. “Kevin Rudd and his senior ministers were so suspicious of Lindsay Tanner that they used to hold fake pre – budget meetings to ensure their plans did not leak. According to accounts of meetings of the now abandoned Strategic Priorities and Budget Committee, nicknamed the gang of four, some meetings with Mr Tanner would deliberately be light on detail. After the meeting concluded and the then finance minister had left, the other three members of the committee – Mr Rudd, Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan – would reconvene and discuss their budget plans in detail.”

Lindsay Tanner is writing a book and I can’t wait to read that given the revelations say very little for Kevin Rudd’s schoolyard games amid financial crisis. I can’t ever remember reading a more damaging report about an elected Australian government’s economic credibility. I must admit that I have always been a Lindsay Tanner admirer – he was smart, to the point and definitely not a populist policy proponent.  Kevin Rudd denies holding fake budget meetings … why am I not the least surprised.

In the meantime, Australia is bathing in a budget surplus (not) as Labor racks up $25.2 billion deficit in just three months shadow minister for finance and debt reduction Andrew Robb reported. The latest government financial statement reveals a staggering budget deficit of $25.2 billion for the first three months of the financial year. “The government is banking on improvements in revenue to bring the budget back to surplus, yet this statement shows no signs of the level of improvement that will be required and therefore spending must be cut.” CommSec chief economist Craig James estimates that the underlying budget deficit in the year to September was a record $63.3 billion. “The main concern is that revenues are still tending sideways rather than showing signs of repair. Meanwhile, government spending is at record highs and showing no signs of stabilising.”

Without a doubt one of the smartest economic reports that I have read is Economic reform will curb pressure on rates which lays much of the blame for increased interest rates on inept government policies. “But while rate rises are a blunt instrument, they are just about the only way the RBA can suppress demand. With a rising dollar, which will depress exports other than minerals and energy production, it is an automatic stabiliser that will slow the economy. A far better solution would be for government to have invested in infrastructure – railways and ports – to increase the efficiency of exports and to have improved productivity in southeast Australia, which is not benefiting directly from the boom. But the Howard government spent the taxes raised by energy exports on its watch on welfare payments and Kevin Rudd threw money at unproductive job programs, as Julia Gillard is still doing.”

“In the current circumstances, the price of stalling economic reform will be more painful than interest rate rises”. Hence, building approvals slide more than expected in September with a 6.6 per cent fall – in the year to September building approvals were down 11.6 per cent.

So figures confirm building weak which is understandable given the Gillard government still has more than $6 billion to be spent with her Building Education Revolution. Don’t blame the Big Gang Theory entirely as we all know they suffer on compassionate grounds. The answer should not be directed to angry customers should switch banks: Gillard rather economic reform, and we all know what happened to the Henry Tax Review.

No wonder Australians want an election – now given both forms of government continue to ignore economic reform. It is becoming increasingly obvious that economics is not a strong point for either party of choice – hence the ongoing and growing budget deficit.

When it comes to Nation Building – Fort Fumble (Gillard) has lost the plot!

Subscriber sales jumped to $986,510,220 so we are closing in on the magic $1 billion in subscriber sales.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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5.11.10Robert Simeon6 Comments »

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With the benefit of hindsight, we ask, did the powers that be in Canberra get the stimulus spending right whilst addressing the global financial crisis? If not, what have they learned from it (if anything)? The answer would be absolutely nothing, given nothing has, or is, being done about housing. Construction activity falls in June which is a clue dropping 6.8 points in June to a 10 – month low. More construction equates to more homes which in turn, reduces house prices. The construction industry ‘is’ the third biggest employer in Australia (or  should that be ‘was’?)

The major problems attributed to Forts Fumble and Crumble is that economically, they confuse usage with wastage (otherwise known as “reckless and wasteful spending”). After all, Fort Fumble is still borrowing almost $100 million a day which is in direct competition with home borrowers and small business as Joe Hockey tells govt to cool spending.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met this week and decided to keep rates on hold despite solid numbers. Of course the announcement was met with the usual rhetoric Wayne Swan welcomes interest rate decision citing “while we’ve fought off the recession and kept unemployment low, we know that a lot of people are still doing it tough and recent rate rises have stretched family budgets.” More Treasurer speak “we’re focussed on reforming and strengthening our economy with investments to harness mining boom mark 11 where the Liberals failed in mining boom mark 1.” Wayne is almost Shakespearean with his economic recitals and enactments although the RBA keeps saying Government must rein in demand growth: McKibbin.

Thought we would head south this week for a change of Sydney scenery

BUY PRINT

Let’s take a closer look at Fort Fumble’s mark 11 harnessing – mining tax changes had one purpose which was taking pressure off key marginal seats. Since the new deal was announced last Friday, it has been described as a compromise, a back flip and a monumental cave–in MRRT revenue loss to be double government estimate: Goldman.

The tax was reduced from 40 to 22.5 per cent a hard tax to swallow as Alan Kohler wrote on Business Spectator.”More than double the profit threshold above which it cuts in and reduce the number of companies being taxed from 2,500 to 320, and lose only one – eighth of the money. Julia Gillard is a prime minister who Gets Things Done – the Mary Poppins of tax policy.”

No regrets over mining tax – Treasury Secretary Ken Henry whilst Martin Ferguson concedes: ‘We got super – profits tax wrong’ I can’t wait to see what happens with mark 111 as government ‘dishonest’ on revised super profits tax revenue as government sacrificed $35 bn in tax deal with big miners.

Time to move above ground where caution is being thrown to the wind (again) – which I might add is not a bad thing. Of course it would have been much better had Fort Fumble got their stimulus issues right which unfortunately was not the case as I have long argued – roads, infrastructure, housing subdivisions, hospitals – a long term future model. Fort Crumble was at it again also with another painful snub of Sydney transport, M5 set to be delayed and doodling as Metro plan burns $500m. Then on Thursday we had 50,000 Sydney homes without power again broken infrastructure in NSW.

Not one Sydney transport project has been listed as a priority for the federal Government’s (Fort Fumble) latest infrastructure funding targets. “Blasting the NSW Government’s failure to properly plan billion – dollar road and transport projects, Infrastructure Australia has instead selected a $4.9 billion Melbourne metro train project, an Adelaide freight rail line and a Federal Highway road upgrade in the ACT as priorities.” Work this out – the Pacific Highway gets an upgrade and Sydney gets absolutely nothing – Sydney has been placed in the too hard basket along with our politicians. No strings attached with Sydney anymore.

Great news for property owners who sit within a 5 – 10 – 15 kilometre radius of our CBD as evidenced when Jonathan Chancellor published this week in the Sydney Morning Herald – Top 20 Sydney house sales just the one recorded sale outside the radius – clue!

Mosman posted five of the top 20 sales.  Our very own Stephen Patrick had the highest sale and Richard Simeon had another in Warringah Road. This saw  Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) record two of the five, which this week, took our Internet subscriber sales to $956,784,220.

So how is our Spring/Summer property market looking? Year ahead good, not great where Australia’s market economists declare there will be no double– dip recession here. Buyers expected to favour private sales over auctions as growth slows. We predict the Mosman market to shift (initially) in the upcoming market to online advertising – stage one as property markets stabilise. Why? It’s all about our real estate ring of confidence.

As Macquarie Economics Research explained:

• With more volatility in global financial markets, an increasing number of analysts are betting that this will force the RBA to leave rates unchanged over the next year. Certainly, if the credit markets dry up the RBA will not hesitate to cut interest rates. But with the Government’s deal with major mining companies over taxation, removing one of the clouds over investment, the RBA might actually have become more confident in the growth outlook.

Don’t forget rise in inflation to irk RBA where the annual reading of 3.6 per cent rate of inflation rose for the eighth straight month. This is well outside the RBA’s target of between 2 and 3 per cent. Rents will continue to drive inflation up given a six year wait to save deposit for first home in Sydney which is quite ironic given Infrastructure Australia is not investing in Sydney. IMF sees strong growth in Australia, but risks grow although I would add that government economic policy is an even greater risk on our shores.

Sydney needs a plan and it is obvious that  Forts Fumble and Crumble have absolutely no idea on how to address such complex issues. Sydney commuters can expect to see new signs on all transport systems – Turn around You Are Going the Wrong Way – no infrastructure ahead. When Fort Crumble has difficulty filling out Infrastructure Australia forms it’s no wonder NSW is a basket case. More back flips from Fort Fumble where Gillard eats her words over refugees as her options dwindle to six countries for east Timor alternative.

The Emperor may have gone however the art of the back flip remains the preferred exercise for a government that just two weeks ago, had lost its way. So what would one call the MRRT and East Timor? Must be a phase they are going through although we need more than promises to judge Julia. Maybe she has short term memory loss?

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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9.07.10Robert Simeon5 Comments »

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In real estate we speak about position, position and position. Sometimes when politicians appear on television, their position can be an embarrassment because, although they can talk the talk, they can’t walk the walk! The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) found himself in that exact position when he appeared on Q&A – Monday night on that ABC at Old Parliament House, Canberra. Journalists had an absolute field day (as did viewers) “At the end of the day, the kids caned Kevin on Q&A” by David Penberthy in The Punch (another great daily online read). I well remember noticing this point. “One of the funniest things about the show was how so many of the young people in the crowd smirked in amusement at Rudd’s Ruddisms – “there’s no magic wand”, “but you know something”, and the ever – present “at the end of the day”, and his use of hand gestures and the sweeping arm to explain the scary arrival of the GFC.” He was trying to gild his lily which wilted after approximately five minutes of prudent interrogation by our country’s future leaders!

They say “nothing makes it harder to remember campaign promises than getting elected” and The Emperor would have observed that his Fort Fumble is now under greater scrutiny and attack from all sides. The Daily Telegraph ran the following stories “Kevin Rudd’s 795 days of empty promises” and “Kevin Rudd’s report card: could do better”. A tough week for The Emperor or is it just that politicians make headlines running for something or running from something?

No doubt he will be very fit by the time he takes us to the polls this year given so many empty promises have glaringly emerged with our “economic conservative” Prime Minister. Joe Hockey fared much better as “Giant Tinkerbell” tutu, magic wand and crown.

Surfs Up! As too are wobbegong attacks although I did chuckle when a witness described the shark as a Great White – although these surfers look unperturbed whilst catching waves at Manly Beach

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Tim Mooney Photography

So from politics, let’s move to property and performance where we mark the report card for Cremorne house results from 2007 to 2009 (next week we examine Neutral Bay houses).

CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2009 to 31 DECEMBER 2009

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• Total number offered – 91 (Mosman 334)
• Total number of sales recorded – 87 (Mosman 303)
• Total value sold – $157,197,000 (Mosman $668,966,377)
• Public Auction – 25 properties to a total value of $38,727,500
• Private Treaty – 62 properties to a total value of $118,469,500
• Median Price – $1,450,000 (Mosman $2,000,000)
• Average Price – $1,871,392 (Mosman $2,397,728)
• Highest Sale – $13,500,000 (RWM)

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CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2008 to 31 DECEMBER 2008

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• Total number offered – 96 (Mosman 360)
• Total number of sales recorded – 80 (Mosman 287)
• Total value sold – $164,864,550 (Mosman $774,865,612)
• Public Auction – 24 properties to a total value of $48,531,000
• Private Treaty – 56 properties to a total value of $116,333,550
• Median Price – $1,650,000 (Mosman $2,000,000)
• Average Price – $2,113,648 (Mosman $2,738,041)
• Highest Sale – $8,280,000 (RWM)

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CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2007 to 31 DECEMBER 2007

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• Total number offered – 100 (Mosman 456)
• Total number of sales recorded – 96 (Mosman 412)
• Total value sold – $223,006,433 (Mosman $1,182,372,720)
• Public Auction – 28 properties to a value of $52,452,600
• Private Treaty – 68 properties to a value of $174,861,433
• Median Price – $1,700,000 (Mosman $2,300,000)
• Average Price – $ 2,347,436 (Mosman $2,869,836)
• Highest Sale – $15,000,000 (new Cremorne record)

Source: Australian Property Monitors

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SUMMARY CREMORNE HOUSE PRICES FROM 2007 TO 2009

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Note that for Mosman and Cremorne in 2008 and 2009, the years of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) posted the highest recorded sales for each year. During the GFC, Cremorne traded as usual 2009 – 87 sales, 2008 produced 80 sales and 2007 recorded 96 sales. Mosman bunkered down 2009 – 303 sales, 2008 – 287 sales and 2007 – 412. It should also be noted that Cremorne posted the highest sale in 2009 at $13,500,000 over Mosman $13,200,000 (both vendors are Virtual Realty News subscribers).

So Mosman property and performance was back in the spotlight this week when it made the front page of The Sydney Morning Herald . “No more withdrawal symptoms as bankers again splash the cash” and “A bonus is a must, says the real estate crowd” . I would add that our 2010 market is too early to call – a key clue for subscribers to our daily email alerts will be our under offer and sold alerts – our website is now the Mosman sales barometer.

Peter Martin from The Sydney Morning Herald sent another warning to The Emperor when he wrote “Interest rate rises in Labor hands” – “The head of the Reserve Bank has held out the prospect of continuing low interest rates, as long as Labor sticks to its pledge to restrain spending.” Which is highly unlikely in an election year although I did chuckle when I read, “Joyce link between rates, ‘gross over-simplification’, says Henry”.

Somewhat ironic, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) saying that Labor again accumulated debt and the Howard regime paid it off in seventeen years of unprecedented economic growth. This again points me to the Henry Tax Report which is as mysterious as a government grant from The Emperor in a Liberal seat – it never happens. Makes one wonder just why this report (six weeks since its release) remains highly confidential.

What is not confidential is that RWM no longer offer properties for rent. Our total focus now is on sales and Agentpoint has delivered what I consider the smartest homepage in the real estate industry.

We are proud to further develop our online business – as our business is your business.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Balmoral real estate, Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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12.02.10Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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The Australian economy is booming with the good news this week from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) that our gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6 per cent (seasonally adjusted). There were no downward GDP revisions for the March quarter which remained at 0.4 per cent and I fail to understand why the global financial crisis (GFC) is still being compared to the worst global economic downturn since the Great Depression. The recession of the early nineties plays it off a break, but the early nineties could hardly be described as global either. Unemployment this time didn’t climb to eleven plus per cent (5.8 per cent as at July) and interest rates today remain at 49 year lows.

‘The Punch’ (another great online read) – Clive Mathieson wrote, What Recession? “What a lovely recession we’re having. Or not having”. I do agree however, with the school of thought that we will see some economic tremors along the way and this is inevitable given the sudden impact of the GFC.

Just like the Y2K computer scare – remember that? A global electronic meltdown was predicted when we moved from 31 December 1999 to 1 January 2000, over concerns that (to save computer disk and memory space), computer softwares were using two digits to represent a year (98 instead of 1998). For example the difference between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 1999 could be calculated as -100 years as against one day. On the stroke of midnight on 31 December 1999 it was predicted that this computer bug would see businesses and industry decimated and we would see planes falling from the sky. On the stroke of midnight, planes flew, fireworks went off over Sydney Harbour and computers worked fine.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Alan Kohler wrote another wonderful article “Bulls at the Gate” on his Business Spectator website. “But Australia’s June quarter GDP is important for two reasons: it confirms that Australia has not had a recession at all, and indeed the economy has now expanded for 18 consecutive years; and secondly it will help ensure that business and consumer confidence remains strong.”

As quick as a flash Wayne Swan announced that our economic growth (Australia has been the best performing advanced economy over the past year) was a result of the stimulus. Earlier in the week he said that opposition treasury spokesman, Joe Hockey, must be “deaf, dumb and blind – if he thinks the Government’s economic stimulus is not working.”

I did like this comment “There are tradies all over the country who are working on stimulus projects. It’s adding to confidence in a way that we don’t see anywhere else in the world.” True Wayne – but other countries are actually in recession – we’re not! Then we had some economic speak from the King of Spin, Ruddy Fantastic, who said “The figures (GDP) that have been released today indicate that we’ve got a long way to go when it comes to economic recovery.” Translated, that means we have a long way to go to get his budget into surplus again.

Leo Shanahan penned this beauty in The Punch “Rudd’s secret spending freeze: no soup for you”

Whilst on long roads, spare a thought for the Y2K equivalent of Australian economics Steve Keen who, in my opinion, irresponsibly predicted on nearly every available media outlet, that Australian house prices would fall by 40 per cent and unemployment would shoot through the roof to “depressionary” levels. This prompted Rory Robertson (interest rate strategist) to jump from the factory floor at Macquarie Bank to bet Steve Keen that if his predictions proved correct he would walk from Canberra to Mount Kosciusko. To read about the bet, Business Spectator filed this story by economist Christopher Joye – “Let the Kosciusko march begin” For the record, Rory Robertson was spot – on with his GFC commentaries.

This takes me to the cash rate which remained on hold when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), met this week and decided to leave it at 3.00 per cent. The cash rate has remained at 3.00 per cent for five consecutive months and next month, I predict it will move to 3.25 per cent – the cost of bank funding is going up not down.

Rory Robertson has also predicted a 25bp increase on October 6 based on the latest data identifying a strong rise in house prices. He wrote “With the RBA reportedly keen to start tightening its loosest – ever policy stance at the earliest – available opportunity, the combination of (a) rising GDP (b) a brighter investment picture and, now (c) stronger growth in house prices, might well prove irresistible. The “economic emergency” clearly is over, “nipped in the bud” by early timely and forceful monetary – and fiscal – policy action.”

I believe he may have been referring to the July RP Data – Rismark Hedonic Index results that revealed Australian home values are now 1.8 per cent above their previous peak in February 2008. The intrigue is building for our Mosman markets given we have record high rents and record low levels of stock – better known as a heated market. Stay tuned.

Quite amazing that should the RBA increase the cash rate next month, it would be moving in a totally different direction to Fort Fumble – Ruddy Fantastic’s empire! That’s it! Ruddy Fantastic is out and now he will be called The Emperor – given his ‘sweet and sour’ patterns of behaviour.

Spare a thought for ‘big’ Johnny Della Bonka at Fort Crumble, where we saw the battered draw bridge rise (figuratively speaking). This prompted a vote of no confidence by the opposition in parliament this week – which failed. Our elected NSW government failed to produce yet another leadership challenge by the Bonka. Watch Frank “cranky” Sartor exercise his recently acquired power- play: the funnier side of politics where the patients challenge the asylum. The Emperor is far from impressed.

This week, Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) released another great online application for our clients – ‘Mohbe’ – mobile phone real estate. Mohbe allows real estate agencies to have their own agency branded mobile phone website for their property listings. The mobile phone websites are viewable through any mobile phone which has an Internet browser and access to the Internet. RWM is Mohbe’s first client in NSW to offer this application. Take a test drive www.mohbe.com/124232

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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4.09.09Robert SimeonNo Comments »

Compared to what I read last Friday night when I opened my daily www.crikey.com.au electronic magazine, the new economic war is all about fighting growing global unemployment. Spare a thought.

“WASHINGTON: A record 32.2 million people – one in every 10 Americans — received food stamps at the latest count, the government said on Thursday, and a reflection of the recession now in its 16th month. Food stamps, the major U.S. anti-hunger program, help poor people buy groceries. The average benefit was $112.82 per person in January. The January figure marks the third time in five months that enrolment set a record.” Source:Reuters

Two editions ago, I wrote “Living in the past and struggling with the future”. Our current recession is definitely not a case of better late than never – more a case of elected politicians who have stymied our very own economies through gross mismanagement of resources, education, health, transport, employment etc.”

Last Saturday’s edition of “The Weekend Australian Financial Review” a brilliant article was filed by Damon Kitney and Annabel Hepworth titled “The man who must stop the gravy train”.
Sydney’s northern suburbs boast some of the best beaches in the world. But try venturing across the Spit Bridge on a clear Sydney day at any time of year and half your day will probably be gone before you arrive on the sand.

It’s the same at morning and evening peak hour, when the narrow four-lane bridge separating Mosman and the northern beaches regularly resembles a parking lot.

Yet when one building industry executive inquired last year of a current minister in the Rees Labor government about the chronic lack of infrastructure through the region all the way up to Palm Beach, the reply was simple: F—k ‘em, they get nothing up there, just f—k ‘em.” the minister reportedly said. These are the bad old days of NSW Labor.”

Enter Ruddy Fantastic’s Infrastructure Australia and not before time.

So the formula applied to NSW tax payers (Stamp Duty, Land Tax, Payroll Tax and GST allocation) doesn’t discriminate yet the allocation of infrastructure spending does? This simply explains why infrastructure in NSW is in a ‘state’ of chaos.

I am a strong supporter of Ruddy Fantastic’s Infrastructure Australia and a fan of appointed chairman Rod Eddington. With state and territory governments now (collectively) in budget deficit, the power of infrastructure spending has been removed from the states and territories to the new (independent) governing power – Infrastructure Australia.

With the federal government also staring down at a budget deficit, it too will have to find a way to climb back into budget surplus. In my humble opinion, the Global Financial Crisis will prove that Australia no longer requires state and territory governments and a smart vehicle like Infrastructure Australia, spells the demise of middle government and not before time.

The corruption and waste of taxpayer revenues is well documented where more than a penny drops into the federal government’s coffers. Infrastructure Australia will in all probability be Rudd’s check (cheque) – mate for turning a budget deficit around. GST has failed miserably and taxes went up (as against the promise of coming down) – so time to bring infrastructure and taxation under the one umbrella. If it comes off (and only incompetence would stop this coming to fruition) – a brilliant political power play.

The federal government urgently needs to beef – up the Australian economy. Now the independently operated Infrastructure Australia will be adding the much needed gravy to the beef.

So let’s look at the upward movement of Mosman house prices from 2000 to 2008 a tale of position, power, glory and not necessarily a bad story. Today, you hold not fold – major banks don’t have non-performing loans on their respective radars as against previous banking mandates of past recessions. Simply put: markets recover and the Mosman property currency remains one of the strongest in Australia as I will identify in coming editions.

Here is a quick brain teaser. How many $10,000,000 plus Mosman house sales were recorded from 2000 to 2008? Have a think and I will get to the answer later on.

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES FROM 2000 – 2008 IN EXCESS OF $5,000,000

2000

• Total Sales – 4
• Total Value – $22,500,000
• Average Sale Price – $5,637,500
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,150,000
• Highest Sale Price – $5,900,000
  

  2001

• Total Sales – 12
• Total Value – $77,385,000
• Average Sale Price – $6,448,750
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,400,000
• Highest Sale Price – $15.500,000 (Mosman’s first $10,000,000+ sale)
  

  2002

• Total Sales – 9
• Total Value – $54,650,000
• Average Sale Price – $6,072,222
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,400,000
• Highest Sale Price – $9,400,000
  

  2003

• Total Sales – 19
• Total Value – $120,518,250
• Average Sale Price – $6,343,065
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
• Highest Sale Price – $11,000,000
  

  2004

• Total Sales – 16
• Total Value – $112,151,000
• Average Sale Price – $7,009,437
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
• Highest Sale Price – $11,000,000
  

  2005

• Total sales – 16
• Total Value – $137,720,000
• Average Sale Price – $8,607,500
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,100,000
• Highest Sale Price – $14,800,000
  

  2006

• Total Sales – 31
• Total Value – $231,285,000
• Average Sale Price – $7,460,806
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
• Highest Sale Price – $15,000,000
  

  2007

• Total Sales – 44
• Total Value – $349,650,000
• Average Sales Price – $7,946,590
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,050,000
• Highest Sale Price – $22,500,000 (new Mosman record)
  

  2008 – Enter Global Financial Crisis

• Total Sales – 25
• Total Value – $170,050,000
• Average Sale Price – $6,802,000
• Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
• Highest Sale Price – $14,700,000

  Source: Australian Property Monitors

  There have actually been 30 recorded sales in excess of $10,000,000 from 2000 – 2008. The agents I spoke with guessed between 12 and 18 sales – I will reveal more data in next week’s edition which will identify the excellent opportunities on offer in this price demographic.

  This week, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates by 0.25 per cent which now takes the cash rate (3.00 per cent) to the lowest level in forty nine years. An anti – climax because the major banks decided to either not pass on and/or minimise reductions to borrowers. With the benefit of hindsight the RBA would acknowledge that the latest rate reduction amounts to very little.

  Makes one wonder exactly who is running our country – the banks or the federal government?

  Obviously the bank deposit guarantee and the ban on short selling financials means next to nothing to them. How would they react if they were lifted? The federal government came to the party and now the banks must dance to that tune – or else.

  Better still why are the major banks charging credit cards at 600 per cent over the present cash rate of 3.00 per cent? Credit card debt should be a government priority in a recession that forces the banks to tow the line with credit card interest rates. Such a move would assist struggling families – and identify that they (banks) are no longer a law unto themselves. Messrs Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan and Lindsay Tanner, need to decisively act and Messrs Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey need to keep them honest.

  Our blog awaits your thoughtful insights.

  Have a fantastic and safe Easter.

  Cheers with chocolate on top ^__^

  For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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  9.04.09Robert Simeon3 Comments »

The latter part of the 2008 real estate market was stymied with speculation that in 2009, it would resemble a blood bath. For obvious reasons there was limited engagement resulting in record low transactions for the calendar year, with many suggesting that this was a clear case of ‘the calm before the storm’.

Already in 2009 we have seen that the property market bears absolutely no resemblance to the one that was predicted in 2008. The general consensus is that prices have been adjusted down and these adjustments vary from ten to twenty per cent. Anecdotal sales evidence suggests that the longer the time on the market, the greater the price adjustment.

My simple daily test for the Mosman real estate market is to monitor the number of houses currently available on www.domain.com.au This applies to all suburbs for that matter. At the end of 2008, listings for Mosman houses were nudging 200 on the Domain property portal. Today, (when one deducts the properties with multiple entries and wrong demographics) the number is just over 145.

To put this into greater perspective, in 2008 it was suggested that we could expect as many as thirty per cent of Mosman’s (approximately 4,900) houses to be on the market where we would see mortgagee-in- possession carnage. The reality is that currently, the Mosman house market is offering just over two per cent – a far cry from vocal predictions of thirty (plus) per cent.

Not to forget Mosman apartments. This is a very strong market where the Queen of Mosman apartment sales (our very own Marize Bellomo) notched up five sales this week.

We are now starting to see this resonate through the property market transactions that continue to build momentum. It has taken the purchasers just two months to get a clearer positioning of real estate markets. We are not attempting to talk our property market up – rather, to share the detailed research that we engage in that differentiates our agency’s obvious point of difference over our competitors. We prefer to offer anecdotal evidence from our research, not speculative, ill-informed rants.

It is not just in real estate that this exists as Alan Kohler wrote on his www.businessspectator.com.au “Wrong Diagnosis” about the demise of Pacific Brands. “Pacific Brands immediate problem is debt, not sales and margin.” This problem is exactly the same in real estate where high debt ratios can also have devastating effects – which is exactly what we are seeing globally. Closer to home, in 2008 we saw the Sydney South – West property markets in a free fall as a direct result of high debt ratios. These markets today are in recovery mode. I did enjoy this comment by Alan Kohler in his article. “Our political leaders, when they can spare a moment from slogging each other off and engaging in the most pathetic spin, and to the extent that they are doing anything useful at all, are focusing on the symptom not the cause – on consumer spending and employment, not credit creation.”

Our brilliant Treasurer, Wayne Swan, was boasting that his December “cash splash” was spent by many, buying “jocks and socks”. Makes one wonder what Pacific Brands think of his statement (a Bonding moment)? The theatre coming out of Canberra is nothing more than a very ordinary act. With each day, the unemployment rate escalates and I am confident that the unemployment explosion would settle down if Pay Roll Tax was abolished to enable businesses to preserve jobs. Pay Roll Tax is easily the most heinous tax and it is just a shame that Wayne Swan fails to understand this simple fact – the $14 billion a year Australian business tax that State governments charge businesses in return for employing staff. Australian businesses continue to proceed with caution although no politicians (Kevin Rudd, Malcolm Turnbull or Joe Hockey) have questioned why Australia’s official interest rate has fallen from 7.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent, yet business lending rates remain closer to the 7 per cent rate. Yes – businesses that employ Australians!!

So what is it that Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan do *not* understand? Already the theatre is calling for a Theresa Rudd encore, given that she has successfully run an Australian business.

Australia is in a fortunate position where our banks are so strong that Boston Consulting announced this week, that Westpac was the world’s most profitable bank.

A shame that Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan keep telling Australian businesses to mind their own business which explains why unemployment will continue to rise. As Alan Kohler suggested, ‘focus on the symptom not the cause’.

Our politicians on all sides are best summed up as Dumber versus Dumber. The Rudd/Swan “cash splashes” were all about buying votes, not about shoring up businesses. I call it Incompetent Diagnosis!

Cheers ^__^

This week’s Mosman real estate sales, Cremorne real estate sales, Cremorne Point real estate sales, Neutral Bay real estate sales – http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

Oh and Mosman also posted an $8.000 million + house sale this week 

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27.02.09Robert Simeon2 Comments »