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A hypothetical Mosman forecast: (not to be read by the faint heated) – walking your Labrador could soon see you walking on private property. Remember the “once upon a time” analogies? Time brings change – and those picturesque ‘rivers of gold’ (public sanctuaries) are a great starting place.

Sydney population to top 6m in 2036 according to a report compiled by the NSW Planning Department. It forecasts a 40 per cent gain from 4.3 million in 2006. Based on data compiled from the 2006 census, the population of NSW will increase to 9.1 million which is a scary thought, when Fort Crumble (NSW Government) does not even come close to meeting present day planning demands for infrastructure, transport, schools, hospitals and roads which are currently in gridlock. More importantly Fort Crumble is broke!

So let’s look into the property crystal ball Sydney suburbs ready to boom Fort Crumble has turned its attention now to transport in the south–west, rather than the north–west. The population of the top 10 local areas, will increase by more than 50 per cent – Camden, Liverpool, Burwood, Auburn, Wollondilly, Sydney, Wyong, Campbelltown, Baulkham Hills, and Strathfield. So south-west is up by 113 per cent and north–west up 52 per cent. Metro cost more than Labor admitted which should come as no surprise. To meet these unprecedented demands, governments on all three tiers will jump into a dash for cash given they are all entrenched in budget deficit. And don’t forget the huge injection of green shoots for the building industry, the economy and increased tax receipts.

BUY PRINT
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Middle Head is arguably Australia’s most sought after real estate and Mosman’s “Jewel in the Crown”.
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So what can we expect? The greatest sell–off of (open space) land for residential development and Mosman (given its abundance of foreshore land) would become a major revenue raiser for funding sustainability. The ‘posh’ will utter, gosh! A strong possibility that Mosman sea scapes could resemble those from Whale Beach to Palm Beach“. Of course governments will say ‘it is all in the name of economic progress’. Simply put – we may believe we are the custodians of open space and even though we don’t have title to this lifestyle privilege, money talks and many areas that are untouched, could lose their virginity!

We now find that one in four NSW councils is on the brink of being unable to pay for essential services – Gone to pot: councils on brink of slashing services. We are already hearing murmurs that some Councils are looking at selling off public golf courses and replacing them with housing estates.

The Municipality of Mosman (currently) has just under 5000 houses so it would be fair to assume that just like other growth areas it too must expand by up to 25 per cent (another 1250 homes). For this to happen (hypothetically) we would see a new housing estate created on Georges Heights and Middle Head which are prime development areas as to Bradleys Head and Clifton Gardens

Cliff top land value sales using Burran and Hopetoun Avenues comparables on Middle Head would deliver sales from $7,000,000 to $15,000,000 + per block (let’s average each block out at $10,000,000): the governments would love these revenues to assist funding pressures. Working on the premise that HMAS Penguin would become a vacant block from Chowder Bay through Middle Head to Balmoral vacant land sales would deliver hundreds and hundreds of multi – million dollar sales. Not to forget also, a huge injection to Mosman Council revenues, courtesy of additional Council rates from subdivisions that could create another 1000 + houses. It may never happen – but it would be a brave person to rule out such a brazen move (otherwise called progress!)

The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) announced his newly created portfolio of Minister for Population this week and as quick as flash Population Minister Tony Burke says migrants should go bush. An interesting debut? Tony Abbott backs a debate on population levels ”Let’s face it; Sydney and Melbourne in particular are choking on their own traffic.” Whilst a population debate is necessary, we are not hearing anything about (more importantly) an infrastructure debate!

Malcolm Turnbull prompted Macquarie Street whispers, when he announced that he was leaving Federal politics A plea to Malcolm Turnbull – your State needs you wrote The Punch. “If anyone can smash his way through the paralysis which grips NSW politics it is Turnbull. In the absence of a mercy rule, NSW voters currently face a battle between the legally blonde and the legally bland. There’s Kristina Keneally, who despite assuring us she’s “nobody’s puppet, nobody’s girrrrrl,” was slotted in by the factional bosses in a vacuous marketing exercise which has nothing to do with policy and everything to do with personality.” Clue: NSW Labor out to buy next election.

The Emperor came in for a touch – up Kevin Rudd’s $3.2 bn health and hospital funding favours Labor seats and Rudd’s new challenge: fix schools so the pains continued Blunders becoming harder to defend and Schools chief orders checks on 260 projects.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) notched up its fifth 25 basis – point rate hike in seven months taking the cash rate to 4.25 per cent – Good times sting as interest rates rise. Given we are in an election year ,The Emperor would have been somewhat perplexed when he read Housing stress may bring political pain. Economic side – kick Wayne Swan delivered these political pearlers “I know that is cold comfort for a lot of families and a lot of people in businesses,” he said. Then “rates are now at the level that they were when the Liberal Party imposed on Australia 10 rate rises in a row so rates are still at historically low levels.”

Wayne, so what you are saying is that the last five interest rate rises are your doing, given that your Government is in power? It has been well documented that the cash rate will return to 5.50 per cent so, Wayne, that would then make it 10 all. Doh!

Tourism Australia announced its new tag line There’s nothing like it superseding “Where the bloody hell are you?” Why do they continually write about politicians?

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So do you think our treasured foreshore reserves will be turned into a residential subdivision? What would such a plan do to top – end prices? Remember, this is Australia’s most prized land. See you on our blog as I suspect this topic may break our previous record number of comments.

Subscriber sales jumped to $938,179,220 this week. We exchanged $31,000,000 in just three days, setting the highest sale in Mosman for 2010. Thank you – subscribers.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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9.04.10Robert Simeon8 Comments »

Our Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) appears to be much busier of late with early indications pointing to the Mosman house market as now in active engagement. What a difference a week can make and we are certainly not talking apparitions – rather anecdotal sales evidence. Expats have suddenly upgraded their position to buy recommendations and the 2008 house rules of engagement no longer appear to bear any resemblance.

On our blog last week, Patricia requested “Robert … An acknowledgement and analysis of the factors surrounding the high inventory of upper – end homes ($3,000,000+) that have been on the market for 6+ months (some almost a year) would be illuminating.” I love blogs as they get to the coal face of our property markets. Watch for more agencies offering this facility (highly unlikely).

In our first edition this year we highlighted the fact that (according to Australian Property Monitors) Mosman in 2008 transacted just 219 sales which is the lowest volume in decades. The hangover of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In 2007, Mosman, recorded 384 house transactions and in 2006 the volume was 440. Back to 2008 where the last six months was an absolute disaster evidenced by the following data.

January 2008 – 8 house sales

February 2008 – 24 house sales

March 2008 – 24 house sales

April 2008 – 25 house sales

May 2008 – 30 house sales

June 2008 – 20 house sales

The GFC decline

July 2008 – 17 house sales

August 2008 – 22 house sales

September 2008 – 13 house sales

October 2008 – 14 house sales

November 2008 – 12 house sales

December 2008 – 9 house sales

Many owners who might otherwise be selling, have to decided to hold their market position. After the Stock Market crash of 1987 where the economy came to a complete halt many forget that our property markets were in full boom just six months later in June 1988.

The buyers are calling for blood and vendors are blowing raspberries!

When I look at www.domain.com.au (the number one Mosman property portal) there are 147 houses listed – then when I remove co-agents and apartments that sneak in, it actually comes to 127. The greatest myth in Mosman is that half the market is for sale. This would equate to 2,450 houses which is a complete nonsense. Currently just 2.5 to 3 per cent are on the market. A far cry from our previous house volume trades of 6 to 8 per cent which we put down to the raspberry factor.

Back to Patricia and our blog “Hello again … Another disquieting aspect of the current Mosman market is the high volume of single –family homes available for lease for $1,000+ /wk.

In a normal market, www.domain.com.au ordinarily lists 40 – 45 Mosman houses for lease. Currently there are over 90 available with the majority over $1,000/wk. MANY of these have been available for several months. It appears that the corporate leasing markets have all but disappeared.
Thanks for any thoughts on this leasing segment.”

The leasing market for houses is actually on par with normal market demand and when one removes the double-dipping, Mosman has actually just 66 houses for lease. Although Domain lists this week’s volume as being 77 houses. It needs to be noted that more than a few properties are multi listed. The top-end of the market is somewhat weak – a result of the GFC. It should be noted that a few vendors who have sold have gone into rental properties.

Back to bottoms – up! When you look at this week’s sales activity (remember where you read it first), RWM sold two properties for $3.025 million and $3.500 million, a home in Waitovu Street was sold for $3.800 million, Prince Albert Street $6.000 million, Hopetoun Avenue $7.000 million and the big double digit Clifton Garden’s sale. RWM posted the highest recorded sale for 2008 with the sale of a Raglan Street waterfront for $14.700 million and last week’s sale is not far behind it. Congratulations to Richard Simeon who negotiated both these sales. All the sales recorded over the last week were Internet based advertising campaigns. I am of the opinion that our Mosman property market has now bottomed (given the current anecdotal sales evidence) when compared to the 2008 sales volumes.

I will address the stimulus package next week. What I find interesting is that Kevin Rudd is allocating taxpayer funds that our hopeless and useless State Governments were supposed to expend, based on tax receipts. Much like Mum and Dad bailing out a sibling on a margin call. Kevin Rudd is attempting to buy another term in government at taxpayer expense. Double dipping in taxation is simply not acceptable. State wastage is of greater concern. On the 7.30 Report this week host Kerry O’Brien asked Prime Minister Kevin Rudd if the NSW government would struggle to assemble a Lego set, let alone an infrastructure package. Rudd did not answer the question (for very obvious reasons).

State governments complained when Australia was in economic growth that they needed greater GST receipts and let’s be honest we are in mild recession. Just that it takes eight months to be told that we are in recession. The GST receipts will be down by forty per cent so Fort Crumble (NSW Government) is now bankrupt.

Bottoms – up and cheers to that and blog away ^__^

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6.02.09Robert Simeon10 Comments »