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Plenty of negative press about the property industry at the moment although we could well ask “what came first the chicken or the egg?” When consumer confidence levels are down, real estate markets have never boomed, although one market characteristic never changes, that being supply. Alas, that economic equation of demand V supply where plenty of demographic markets are experiencing an oversupply when demand is waning. To settle more than a few arguments in this week’s edition, we unveil exactly what is happening in the Mosman housing market where we identify plenty of mystique and mystery – with not that much misery. The figures don’t lie – so we went to Mosman’s most accurate market barometer Domain Property Data

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data published this week, revealed house prices fell 1.7 per cent across all capital cities except Melbourne where a 2.5 per cent drop was recorded for the March quarter 2011 – house prices dive in massive market fall. I actually love these commentaries given we are one of the few real estate businesses within Australia (with a very large voice) who can address these issues.

Steve Keen was at it again – Why Australia’s housing balloon is shot which focuses on the 1.7 per cent decline in property prices. Steve Keen predicted property prices would collapse in Australia by forty (40) per cent during the global financial crisis (GFC).  He lost that bet and he keeps (unsuccessfully) suggesting that property prices are in a bubble that will collapse. Just like me suggesting that Julia Gillard knows what she is doing as Prime Minister of Australia. Mortgage debt is the new “economic fascinator” although – RBA leaves rates on hold. The present cash rate is 4.75 per cent so there is plenty of scope to further reduce, depending on market movements.

BUY PRINT

What many forget is that in Australia, our property industry is defined by a thirty something analysis – one third rent, the second third own with a mortgage and the final third own without a mortgage. Here is the proof – it will be interesting to see how this pie graph changes after this year’s Census (I doubt by very much.)

Having been absorbed by the real estate gig for the last twenty five years I remain fascinated. Why? Purchasers go berserk during a property boom where they happily pay well above market value. Yet when the market slows and prices reduce they go into a self-induced hibernation/paralysis.  Even more intriguing is that today, online offers immediate property data anecdotal sales evidence. No better example, in How Twitter tweeted before Obama sang that Osama bin Laden had been found and executed.

So let me use the definitive sales evidence in Mosman to correctly explain what is actually happening where you work the numbers (not my words) pertaining to the mystique, mystery and whether or not there is any misery. Firstly, let’s look at the number of apartments and houses currently on the market compared to previous years.  Does this suggest that Mosman is experiencing a huge exodus of property owners?

Let’s analyse the Mosman house market March Quarter for 2010 as compared to the March Quarter for 2011- actually, we go back to 2005 to observe any patterns.

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2010

• Total Number Offered – 105
• Private Treaty – 75
• Public Auction – 16
• Total Sales – 91
• Total Value Sold – $230,950,500
• Average Price – $2,685,470

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2011

• Total Number Offered – 83
• Private Treaty – 40
• Public Auction – 19
• Total Sales – 59
• Total Value Sold – $55,030,000 (37 sales recorded a zero sale price)
• Average Price – $2,311,666

So to be fair let’s compare the March Quarters from 2005 to 2009.

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2009

• Total Number Offered – 64
• Private Treaty – 48
• Public Auction – 3
• Total Sales – 51 (less than 2011)
• Total Value Sold – 130,000,000
• Average Price – $2,653,061

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2008

• Total Number Offered – 81
• Private Treaty – 54
• Public Auction – 7
• Total Sales – 61 (2 more than 2011)
• Total Value Sold – $188,720,000
• Average Price – $3,093,770

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2007

• Total Number Offered – 108
• Private Treaty – 78
• Public Auction – 16
• Total Sales – 94
• Average Price – $2,617,332

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2006

• Total Number Offered – 99
• Private Treaty – 69
• Public Auction – 15
• Total Sales – 84
• Average Price $2,303,107

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES MARCH QUARTER 2005

• Total Number Offered – 72
• Private Treaty – 45
• Public Auction – 8
• Total Sales – 53
• Average Price – $2,296,323

All in all, a positive story despite what is being written in the media (never let the facts get in the way of a good story). So moving on, let’s have a look at the ongoing debacle at Julia Gillard’s – Fort Fumble.

Source: The Australian- order Bill Leak’s print

Strong dollar spells political trouble for Labor as voters abandon Julia Gillard’s carbon pricing plan due to be released in July. Easily Australia’s worst ever policy announcement, which is now looks very much dead and buried. Fort Fumble can’t revoke any more new policies, given the number previously done and dusted – an Australian political record.

Budget surplus has to go and by 2012 -13 which is a political decision rather than an economic one. Still a very strong possibility that by the next federal election Australia will still be in budget deficit.

If asked to compare the strength of Julia Gillard’s longevity in Canberra to Mosman real estate prices – it’s a no brainer. Mosman house prices never looked better. Although while we have a Labor Government in power – that would represent a *BUY RECOMMENDATION*.

To all our beautiful “mums” enjoy your day this Sunday – very well deserved and forever the salt of our lives.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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6.05.11Robert Simeon4 Comments »

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When Julia Gillard stealthily snatched the keys to Fort Fumble from Kevin Rudd in the dead of night, June 23 2010, her action was based on the party’s belief that he had “lost his way”. Ten months later the party is now shipwrecked on Point Rock at Hard Place.

In political speak, the compass is often called a poll, although Prime Minister Julia Gillard recently commented after disastrous polling, “I don’t comment on the polls, and I don’t spend much time wondering about them.” The polls were close to one hundred per cent correct long before Fort Fumble was decimated at last month’s NSW election. Polls come and go, and so do leaders as was the case in NSW where it become a simple choice of either ditch the policies or ditch the leader.  It’s now Julia Gillard versus the carbon tax, NBN Co, East Timor solution and a budget deficit that’s getting worse, not better.

Infrastructure is without a doubt the greatest problem facing modern day Australia today. NSW firms get crumbs as workers flee – almost half of NSW businesses are having difficulty finding skilled employees as they compete with the higher pay packets being offered in the mining sector.  NSW faces a skilled worker shortage given the reconstruction work in Queensland and the ever expanding mining sectors which will drive wages to dangerous levels as the shortages multiply each month and inflation will follow as inflation on a knife – edge.

BUY PRINT

I asked Tim Mooney if (by chance) he would be flying over Westminster Abbey to get an aerial shot of today’s Royal Wedding.  Unfortunately, due to budget restrictions, we settled on The Abbey in Glebe, Sydney

New home starts in 2011 are fast tracking the weakest declines since the mid 1990’s with property prices remaining subdued and many will say this is a good thing. Although on the flip side, it means that the circular flow of income (which is the oxygen for the economy) stalls, with the lack of economic growth and confidence. Home prices declined nationally in March quarter: APM we expect the same results once the June quarter figures are announced given housing credit growth remains fragile.

This week’s inflation numbers certainly point to higher interest rates by year’s end as Australia’s consumer price index rose 1.6 per cent in the March quarter (its largest quarterly jump in almost five years). The housing group is up from the 0.6 per cent level of the December quarter, with the annual rate of increase, the lowest since the September quarter of 2007. Contributing to the annual increase of 4.8 per cent for the housing group, were substantial increases in the price of utilities – 11.7 per cent for electricity, 12.8 per cent for water and sewerage and 6.2 per cent for property rates and charges. Rents increased by 4.5 per cent for the year on a weighted average, over eight capital cities and the cost of house purchase increased 2.6 per cent.

Source: The Australian, Bill Leak

Show us the money Mr Swan: it’s time to stop squandering our future by Malcolm Turnbull :Well, one thing to be said for Swan’s latest excuse is that it makes a change from the past three years of using the global financial crisis to justify failed programs and irresponsible choices.

Of course Wayne Swan nails it, when it comes to explaining the economic machinations of our economy.  Petrol jumped 8.8 per cent, vegetables increased by 16 per cent following the Queensland and Victorian floods and Cyclone Yasi and fruit increased by 14.5 per cent.  Surprise and further surprise, almost forty (40) per cent of retail spending by Australian households now lands in the cash registers of either Coles or Woolworths, according to exclusive new research by Commonwealth Bank grocery giants in 40% grab. For example: bananas cost $2.99 a kilo prior to Cyclone Yasi and jumped to $16.00 a kilo in March.

CBA’s analysis conducted for The Sunday Telegraph shows that of the $242 billion in retail sales last year, $94.3 billion or 38.9 per cent, is taken by one of the corporate giants (Coles or Woolworths) who command $46.7bn and $47.5bn respectively.

Just can’t resist another dig at the Carbon tax battle: bureaucracy v business which is an interesting debate although it should be noted that a politician will always place his/her very own job security way  ahead of endorsing a tax that threatens the length of their careers . The Carbon tax will destroy the Gillard government as the people sit in poll position and the Government is on the way to the panel beaters. Liar, liar – hair on fire!

Thousands to be stuck in NBN ‘limbo’ which is another amazing example of incompetence as thousands of Australians (many in regional areas think of the Independents) can now expect years of worse, not better, internet services as the NBN rolls out across Australia. Well it is currently stalled and facing huge cost blow–outs NBN Co housing forecasts deemed unrealistic.  Oh dear, here we go again!

To give a better understanding of the Rudd/Gillard management style of running Australia, former Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner will release his book next week titled “SIDESHOW” Ex-minister unloads on Rudd govt.

Lindsay Tanner – on the 2010 Campaign – “The worst in living memory. Banal slogans, robotic delivery, and trivial policy announcement deployed by both major parties.”

Lindsay Tanner – on Federal politics –  “Modern politics now resembles a Hollywood blockbuster: all special effects and no plot.

Last week we covered Mosman house sales and total value sold – 2000 to 2010. This week –

MOSMAN AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES FROM 2000 TO 2010

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Source: Domain Property Data

• 2000 – Up to $5,000,000 $1,329,677. Above $5,000,000 $5,637,500
• 2001 – Up to $5,000,000 $1,548,882. Above $5,000,000 $6,561,428
• 2002 – Up to $5,000,000 $1,862,836. Above $5,000,000 $6,587,500
• 2003 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,010,859. Above $5,000,000 $6,316,000
• 2004 – Up to $5,000,000 $1,854,568. Above $5,000,000 $6,941,722
• 2005 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,017,809. Above $5,000,000 $8,741,333
• 2006 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,110,469. Above $5,000,000 $7,115,228
• 2007 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,291,431. Above $5,000,000 $7,845,348
• 2008 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,267,210. Above $5,000,000 $7,170,000
• 2009 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,276,172. Above $5,000,000 $7,226,136
• 2010 – Up to $5,000,000 $2,355,472. Above $5,000,000 $7,212,826

Now that is a pretty consistent score card in both market demographics, especially when we take into consideration, the global financial crisis (2008 – 2010). Interesting statistics to bear in mind when the 2011 Budget is explained, given that the global financial crisis was in the northern hemisphere!

Next week, we will release the Mosman March quarter house sales for 2010, as compared to 2011.

Anyone prepared to make a prediction?

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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29.04.11Robert Simeon7 Comments »

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The carbon tax debacle went toxic for Labor this week when Newspoll announced its fortnightly report card – record Labor low on carbon fury. In just two weeks, Julia Gillard’s personal support has gone from its highest since becoming Prime Minister in June last year, to her worst. The Party’s credibility is now in free fall. In an astonishing revelation, Julia Gillard announced “I will continue to press to price carbon and we will get this done from 1 July, 2012”- despite anecdotal evidence that most voters believe PM broke carbon tax promise. The present carbon tax model is doomed for failure although Julia Gillard told carbon tax debate will be easy to win once the public is informed.  This is too funny for words given that due diligence thus far, is zero.

High price of short – term tactics which begs the question, will this be a short term government when it is abundantly clear that an early election is the only way out when Australia is virtually ungovernable. “Julia Gillard has learnt this week that politicians who ignore the lessons of history find themselves with historically low popularity ratings. Instead of taking a leaf out of John Howard’s script on the GST, the Prime Minister has dug a hole for Labor by trying to fast track a carbon – cum – emissions trading scheme. It is yet another sign of failure of the Gillard and Rudd governments to put long – term strategic goals ahead of short – term political tactics.”

BUY PRINT

Australia ducked the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and it now it is faced with the Gillard Financial Crisis – Gillard is now Prime Minister in name only. Plans for a carbon tax appear to have shaken consumer confidence as carbon tax blamed for contributing to slump in consumer confidence. “Pessimists now outnumber optimists in their outlook on family finances over the next 12 months for the first time since March 2009, when Australia risked falling into recession. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the key factors behind the unexpectedly large fall in the index – down 2.4 per cent in March from a month earlier – seemed to be concerns over budget and tax issues, and petrol prices. While there is no specific evidence – we expect that the key negative for households … relates to the government’s commitment to price on carbon by July next year.” The Greens are killing Labor as the PM sees green and her MPs see red.

The carbon tax announcement is arguably the dumbest announcement ever made within the foundations of Australia’s political history. “Operation Abort” is already being announced – Windsor savages carbon tax strategy with the accusation of “putting the cart before the horse” because of “pressure from the Greens.” Ironic that Julia Gillard became Prime Minister with blood on her hands and months later she is haemorrhaging profusely with short – term policies that threaten the profitability of households – carbon tax is a dog ready to bite Labor.

Ziggy Switkowski wrote an interesting piece on Business Spectator Only carbon fools rush in despite industry recommending that Fort Fumble hold – off with the carbon tax until details have been formulated.  Combet: An early announcement was appropriate despite a carbon tax framework with no details to negotiate with industry. Despite business pressure for a delay, Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan rejects calls to delay carbon tax. This will get ugly and eventually end up with another meteoric back – flip where Caucus will take Gillard and Swan as the carcass. Keep watching the polls which will get worse for Fort Fumble especially when Kristina Keneally gets whipped at the election in two week’s time.

Property sales reach 10 – year low and the Gillard Financial Crisis is not helping matters. We note that Sydney rental market to tighten as lease is more in the new Australian dream. This does not help Australian construction contracted for the ninth consecutive month in February as the tools go down slow – down in construction activity . What we are witnessing now could be described as what the hell? Nation in regional retreat as consumers continue to tighten the belt as purses remain shut tight.

“In a grim picture revealing many families are doing it tough, about 700,000 taxpayers entered into special repayments with the Tax Office in 2009/10 – an increase of 32 per cent in four years” as Australians crippled by tax burden. The number of Australians failing to lodge a tax return has blown out to about 4 million and small businesses have racked up a crippling $9.4 billion in Tax Office debts. Households in retreat increase pressure on carbon tax with the inevitable outcome that rising bills cause consumer blues.

Every week we post on our website the weekly recorded sales activity for our demographic , so it came as little surprise when I read auction rates fudged by failed campaigns. Mosman in all probability (based on my observations) has the lowest auction clearance rate in Australia, based on results of the number of properties submitted. Yes, each week we see auction properties that are passed in and the results conveniently buried.  Some week’s/months later, when sold, they are recorded as auction sales. The last time we extrapolated the data, the auction clearance rate in Mosman was just under twenty (20) per cent. So yes, the current system is rorted. In fairness, we are really a private treaty business (maybe in 2009. we auctioned five or seven properties in total).

We intend to publish the Mosman sales results for the “above $5.000 million house market” for the past ten years, in next week’s edition.

As you will be aware, I have a bee in my bonnet over the carbon tax which every day is fast-tracking the Home Insulation Scheme. Our economy is struggling and Julia Gillard has her foot firmly on the accelerator of destruction. Alas, the Gillard Financial Crisis!

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Cheers ^__^

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11.03.11Robert Simeon8 Comments »

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There is no doubt that a large proportion of our housing market is delicately poised and many are pointing to an overpriced top –end.  I don’t subscribe to that theory and believe it runs much deeper, to what is called ‘human sentiment’.   The global financial crisis (GFC) has led to a re – evaluation of our lifestyles, especially when it comes to property. The GFC brought about an immediate end to Australia’s unprecedented eighteen year run of economic growth which in real terms meant that a large proportion of workers and business owners experienced income declines not seen for nearly two decades.

When we analyse our property market, we need to apply the strongest rule– of–thumb which is the Household Estimates of 2007 – 2008. The next Census of Population and Housing will be conducted on August 9, 2011. The current Household Estimates tells us that in Australia, 2,399,900 (30 per cent) households rent property. Those that own without a mortgage make up 2,679,200 (34 per cent) which leaves us with the market that banks are now fighting for – the 2,835,200 (36 per cent) who own with a mortgage.

Rates may hold for year: Reserve chief so then we see NAB’s exit plan triggers fresh lender mortgage war with rivals so happy days as consumers to win as Big Four banks declare war. Credit is an economy’s rocket fuel which has now been superseded in Australia as household savings outgrow spending. We need to dig deeper to find what’s behind the credit drought? “Much of the world is currently suffering a nasty hangover from explosive credit growth. And while we’ve so far escaped any scorching pain in Australia, credit growth has throttled back to near 20 year lows. After a 12 year credit binge Australians are now carrying more debt than ever. The First Home Buyer Grant encouraged the take up of mortgages and cheap credit financed consumer spending, from credit cards to margin loans.”

BUY PRINT

“Since the financial crisis, our national savings rate has increased sharply. That’s what one would expect. Thrift usually follows excess, especially when a string of interest rate increases and higher food and energy prices reduce disposable income. A higher savings rate and the resulting lower credit growth are rational responses.”

Jonathan Chancellor from the Sydney Morning Herald wrote Sydney’s reality check – “there will be joy for some and tears for others in 2011.”  Mosman in 2011, has started off in lock–down mode with available properties well down on previous years. Records tumble but rise in listings will cool prices which is always an accurate assessment.

Our review of Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay’s (RWM) sales results for 2010, revealed   sixteen new street records in a challenging market. This week we set a new street record when contracts were exchanged for 42 Cowles Road Mosman.

Here at RWM we constantly challenge the markets with anecdotal evidence. For example, we combined sales data from Domain Property Data with the resources of RWM Property Research and listed below, are Mosman house sales from 1999 to 2005.  Footnote: pay particular attention to average and median growth as well as auction clearance rates.

1999 – Mosman House Sales to $5,000,000

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• Number of houses sold – 424
• Total Value – $522,523,578
• Median Price – $1,067,000
• Average Price – $1,235,280
• Highest Price – $6,400,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 45 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 185
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 189
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 39
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 9
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 2

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 8.7% per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 374 which is approximately 88.5 per cent of total sales.

2000 – Mosman House Sales to $5,000,000

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• Number of houses sold – 332
• Total Value – $441,452,395
• Median Price – $1,155,000
• Average Price – $1,329,677
• Highest Price – $5,900,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 51 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 119
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 137
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 62
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 11
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 3

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 6.6 per cent of houses sold. The auction clearance rate increased from 45 per cent to 51 per cent. House sales up to $999,999 were 256 which is approximately 77 per cent of total sales.

2001 – Mosman House Sales to $5,000,000

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• Number of houses sold – 399
• Total Value – $618,004,118
• Median Price – $1,300,000
• Average Price – $1,548,882
• Highest Price – $15,500,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 54 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 122
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 161
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 73
• House sales above $3,000,000 – 32
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 11

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 8.1 per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 283 which is approximately 71 per cent of total sales The auction clearance rate increased from 51 per cent to 54 per cent.

2002 – Mosman House Sales to $5,000,000

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• Number of houses sold – 346
• Total Value – $644,541,555
• Median Price – $1,652,500
• Average Price – $1,862,836
• Highest Price – $4,855,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 54 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 70
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 127
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 96
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 36
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 17

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 7.00 per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 197 which is approximately 57 per cent of total sales. This figure was down from 71 per cent the previous year which is evidenced by increases in the median and average prices. Auction clearance rates remained at 54 per cent.

2003 – Mosman House Sales to $5,000,000

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• Number of houses sold – 334
• Total Value – $671,627,182
• Median Price – $1,699,500
• Average Price – $2,010,859
• Highest Price – $11,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 47
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 139
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 89
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 44
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 15

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 6.8 per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 186 which is approximately 55 per cent of total sales. For the first time ever the average price broke $2,000,000. Auction clearance rates dropped from 54 per cent to 40 per cent.

2004 – Mosman House Sales to $5,000,000

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• Number of houses sold – 282
• Total Value – $522,988,257
• Median Price – $1,632,500
• Average Price – $1,854,568
• Highest Price – $11,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 26 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 42
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 127
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 68
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 39
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 6

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 5.7 per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 169 which is approximately 60 per cent of total sales. The average price dropped below $2,000,000 and auction clearance rates dropped from 40 per cent to 26 per cent.

2005 – Mosman House Sales to $5,000,000

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• Number of houses sold – 278
• Total Value – $560,951,000
• Median Price – $1,842,500
• Average Price – $2,017,809
• Highest Price – $14,800,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 36 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 38
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 115
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 60
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 52
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 13

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 5.6 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 153 which is approximately 60 per cent of sales. The average price was back up again over $2,000,000. Auction clearance rates increased from 26 per cent to 36 per cent.

In next week’s edition we will complete the house sales up to $5,000,000 and reveal the market movements from 2006 to 2010. Watch for the impact the GFC had on our markets. In 1999, sales up to $999,999 made up 88.5 per cent of total sales.  In 2005, they only made up 60 per cent of total sales and by 2010 had dropped to 28 per cent.

I will leave Forts Fumble and Crumble alone this week as the above cartoon says it all – Fort Crumble has had 16 years in the palace. It is not looking pretty for Premier Bambi – even the Nationals will outpoll Labor in the March election. Current polls have the Coalition holding 73 of the 93 seats, Nationals with 19 seats and Labor holding (at best) 14 seats. In all probability it will get worse between now and Execution Day. Oops! I mean Election Day.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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18.02.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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We keep hearing when the “going gets tough the tough get going” so you could be excused from thinking anytime soon that our luck has changed (for the better). A stark reality of the global financial crisis (GFC) has been the over reliant business concept where the hope factor remained the dominant strategy moving forward – trying hard and out of luck. No better example than that of our politicians where today, their decision making process is directed by polls as against policies.

The GFC was actually a great measure for businesses and governments although they responded in totally opposite directions. Businesses paid down debt and governments amassed debt which should not come as a great surprise as one is personal debt over other people’s debt. As a result of the GFC two words spring to mind: communication and infrastructure which is what I believe will be the key business strategies moving forward and succeeding in 2011 and beyond.

In that perfect world put simply: if we have every intended purchaser and vendor on our database (communication and infrastructure) we would be one of the most successful businesses on the entire planet – today we (most) strive in business to deliver the perfect consumer model. Just another part of life’s ongoing business challenges – so many businesses ignore and fight online which is now our future. No point fighting it – work it, use it and more importantly dominate it as it reciprocates one hundred fold (plus).

BUY PRINT

Our thanks to Tim Mooney for again spoiling us in 2010 with his amazing aerial captures which are simply breathtaking and most often mind boggling. Many subscribers contacted Tim throughout the year requesting aerial shots of their respective homes – they make for sensational Christmas cards.

Another fascinating year in Australian politics – a federal election, hung parliament, cross deals, resignations, scandals and the sacking of the Prime Minister. We pretty well had it all and more. Next March NSW is off to the polls as Fort Crumble limps to its final days make that 19: NSW Labor resignations which is unprecedented in Australian political history. A Christmas wish as Premier ‘Bambi ‘Keneally begs for a second chance despite revelations this week that $350 million wasted on Metro, audit reveals then insisting that when she dumped the Metro  the money had not been wasted. Oh dear!

Congratulations to our very own Steve Patrick and Jacqui Rowland – Smith who posted Mosman’s top sale for 2010 with the sale of Morella Road also the twelfth highest sale in Sydney for 2010. Steve also posted Mosman’s second highest sale when he sold a home in Stanley Avenue Balmoral last month – Mosman recorded four sales in Sydney’s Top 20 sales for 2010. Of interest is that sixteen (16) houses that Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) sold in 2010 set new street records – an amazing feat in a difficult market. RWM have posted Mosman’s highest recorded house sales in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

This week we set an Australian record when we posted $1 billion in subscriber sales to our online business which now sits at $1,001,770,228. Our first subscriber sale was recorded in October 2000 when we sold an apartment for $270,000 – our real estate online model is considered an Australia leader within our industry. Nobody really knew what we were trying to achieve when we rolled it out ten years ago – today it is recognised as a leading example for our industry.

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES – 2008, 2009 & 2010 A COMPARITIVE ANALYSES

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• 2008 – Total Value Sold $774,865,612
• 2009 – Total Value Sold $668,966,377
• 2010 – Total Value Sold $692,658,555*

*Still being compiled

• 2008 – Total Number Sold – 360
• 2009 – Total Number Sold – 334
• 2010 – Total Number Sold – 320*

*Still being compiled

• 2008 – Median Price $2,275,000
• 2009 – Median Price $2,000,000
• 2010 – Median Price $2,100,000*

*Still being compiled

• 2008 – Average Price $2,738,041
• 2009 – Average Price $2,397,728
• 2010 – Average Price $2,500,572*

*Still being complied

Source: Australian Property Monitors

What to watch closely in 2011?



Many thanks to the team at Macquarie Research for sharing their graphs with us in 2010

This is your final edition of Virtual Realty News for 2010 and we would like to thank you for your support in 2010. Next year will be our eleventh year of publishing Virtual Realty News and we have plenty in store for you in 2011. With each edition in 2011 we will also be launching a weekly video where we tackle what is happening with our property markets – sure to be controversial (if I get my way.) I will be endeavouring to interview as many interesting people as we can. This will be brought to you by Visual Domain our video partner with Virtual Realty Videos.

Thanks to Ryan and Peter at Agentpoint our online web developers whom I drive absolutely mad with my online impulsive disorders where we constantly dare to be different. You guys are without a doubt the best in the business and an absolute pleasure to work with.

Whilst on videos here is our Christmas video for all of our subscribers (I suggested in last week’s edition that one of our staff was at a recording studio) – it is 100 per cent his voice. So turn your volume – up and click on full screen. Our Christmas video has already been nominated for best real estate Christmas video for 2010.
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As you can see we work with a fantastic team (I think that shows) you would have observed that our family is growing. On behalf of Steve, Rich and everyone else at RWM we want to say to each and every one of you – thank you very much!

Have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year – see you again in 2011 for much, much more.



Cheers (and stop calling me Baz Lurman) ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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10.12.10Robert Simeon15 Comments »

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Actually not that different with the three P’s that pertain to property – position, position and position. Throw in politicians and bankers and what we have is the 2010 equivalent of economic soup that is murky and far from palatable. During the global financial crisis (GFC) Westpac and the Commonwealth banks wrote approximately eighty (80) per cent of all mortgages which explains why today, collectively, they own the largest mortgage books. Alan Kohler wrote on The Drum that banks only have themselves to blame which has caused a stir given many consumers are losing faith in our pillars of society. Of course, there has been plenty of gratuitous PR advice for our friends in banking although the politics of banking was intelligently addressed when Janet Albrechtsen wrote in The Australian – Let’s hear the positive story from the banks.

Plenty of rhetoric this week as home owners angered by increases in interest rates then news broke that the Big Four banks to dump exit fees as backlash grows against lenders. Then late this week ANZ raises rates, scraps exit fees at or about the same time as ASIC bans banks from double – dip mortgage exit fees which means banks that charge customers to establish a mortgage, will no longer be able to apply contentious exit fees. Too early to say who will get the last laugh with this announcement – possibly bank establishment fees will rise? Certainly the four new P’s won’t change.

BUY PRINT

Is the landscape at Circular Quay about to change? Special deal on city skyscraper as a giant residential tower, double the size of any other building in Circular Quay, is expected to be approved soon. The site Gold Fields House is set to become a luxury apartment block that will tower 191 m above Circular Quay making it Sydney’s eighth tallest building. Sydney has only one of the top 10 tallest buildings in Australia – which prompts the discussion for progress of our capital city.

Australian Property Monitors released its House Price Report for September 2010 and here are the key findings:

• National median house prices remain effectively unchanged at +0.1 per cent for the quarter with annual house price growth slowing to +11.5%
• Most capital cities experienced falls in prices over the quarter; however the major markets of Melbourne and Sydney bucked the trend recording positive quarterly house price growth
• National price units (excluding Tasmania) have fallen slightly, down -0.4% for the quarter, with annual growth falling sharply to +6.5%
• Unit prices have fallen in all cities except Melbourne, with Brisbane experiencing the largest price decline, falling -2.8% for the quarter

Source: Australian Property Monitors

SYDNEY

• House prices increased slightly by +0.7% in the September quarter, which is the third consecutive quarter of slowing growth.
• Unit prices have started falling for the first time since 2008, recording -0.1% for the quarter.
• Sydney’s median house price is now $634,346 and the median unit price has fallen slightly to $436,714.
• Annual house price growth sits at +11.3% and unit price growth is at +7.3%, both trending downwards.

Weak demand made for rate surprise all things considered the clearance rates are positive, although the most important conclusion would be that prices are flat lining. It is only natural that auction clearance rates fall on rate rise and we are seeing anecdotal sales evidence. One interesting observation in Mosman at present, is that private treaty sales are producing the highest volume.

Here is the comparative analysis for Mosman houses:

Mosman Houses 2009 – 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2009

• Total sold – 322
• Private Treaty – 281
• Public Auction – 41
• Total Value Sold – $815,649,751
• Median price – $2,094,000
• Average price – $2,564,936
• Highest price – $13,200,000 (RWM)

Mosman Houses 2010 – 1 January 2010 to 10 November 2010

• Total sold – 292
• Private Treaty – 219
• Public Auction – 73
• Total Value Sold – $639,048,555
• Median price – $2,100,000
• Average price – $2,468,570
• Highest price – $12,600,000 (RWM)

It should be noted that with the 2010 house sales, that the vast majority of sale prices are yet to be recorded, so we expect this year’s total value for houses sold, to be considerably higher $750,000,000 approximately. For example, this week, RWM recorded the second highest house sale for Mosman in 2010 which is yet to be recorded. Here is the Macquarie Research Economics Forecast where it should be noted that the banks have already moved the cash rate to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Macquarie Research Forecast for Quarter 1 – 2011. So what we now have is an official cash rate and a real cash rate, which I will call the “real, official cash rate” – ROCR!

So to the four new P’s – polls, populism, performance and of course profits which continue to stymie our Forts Fumble and Crumble. The politician who should have been Premier of NSW, Blacktown MP Paul Gibson ‘Fed up’ NSW Labor MP quits so now thirteen (13) Labor MP’s have announced their retirement in the past two months. Paul Gibson “we’ve moved from platform and policy and pursued a poll driven agenda.” Fort Crumble is shambolic and an embarrassment where Transport Minister John Robertson has already called his transport removalists to grab the now vacated seat. Thirteen, with more to come as powerbroker Joe Tripodi quits. Premier Kristina “Bambi” Keneally has (unofficially now) been placed on the endangered species list due to a lack of interest – polls, populism, performance and no profit.

A perfect dismount from the strangest election ever – You can say that again! The four new P’s continue to dominate as Julia Gillard losing ground to Tony Abbott, News poll shows given the continuance of Labor’s policy woes pile up. No doubt we will be hearing and reading plenty more about this in the months to come. Fort Crumble continues to disintegrate – polls and populism shape public perceptions. Fort Fumble relies on the hope factor – Swan’s numbers looking rubbery when more ‘courage’ needed in spending cuts, says Access Economics. Polls, populism, performance and of course profits continue to threaten the capability of Fort Fumble.

Back in 2000, Virtual Realty News subscriber sales sat at zero when we launched our online platform. Today, they sit at $998,770,220 so we are now $1,229,780 from breaking the $1,000,000,000 mark.

Unfortunately, this week’s $10.000 million plus Balmoral sale did not qualify – another big week of local sales which suggests a strong run of property transactions through to Christmas.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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12.11.10Robert Simeon5 Comments »

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Australian property markets make compelling viewing for letterbox voyeurs given we’ve never been better despite the crisis. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) we are healthier, wealthier and wiser and Australia, during the first half of the global financial crisis, was one of only three developed countries with finances and economies remaining positive. On the flip side, housing affordability and conditions continue to deteriorate based on the Measures of Progress report released by the ABS which plots social and economic changes every ten years across Australia. In the ten years to 2009, the homes that were affordable to low income earners, fell from 15 per cent to 7 per cent.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) again defied market expectations this week when it left the cash rate at 4.5 per cent for the fifth straight month. The letterbox voyeurs of doom and gloom were quick to regroup following the RBA rates surprise when they trumpeted focus shifts to November for rate rise. The RP Data – Rismark August home value indices revealed that Sydney has been one of only two capital cities to avoid any falls in value, recording a 0.2 per cent rise in house and unit values over the quarter (the other city was Canberra). Price trends put Sydney buyers in the driving seat “The improved value proposition in Sydney’s housing market is also helping to keep more residents from departing for other states. Based on the latest data from the ABS (to March 2010), the outflow of residents from NSW has not been this low for 15 years.” No doubting that this would have something to do with the forthcoming removal of its incompetent government – Fort Crumble.

BUY PRINT

I love a debate. I read rates could pop house price bubble: economist Dean Baker who tipped the US housing market collapse says Australia’s high house prices are at risk of slumping if interest rates rise further. US banks still remain on a government-induced life support and Australian banks are posting healthy profits with net interest margins back at pre GFC levels. RBA officially given a role as stabiliser for financial system where its mandate has been broadened for the first time to take into account the stability of the nation’s financial system. From the end of October, the majority of the big banks will start reporting full year profits which, for the big four banks, are expected to report a combined record profit of more than $21 billion. US property markets were decimated when subprime hit. This was brought about by the banks going into liquidation and I fail to see any such similarities – no cigar for Dean Baker. The Sydney property market can’t and won’t collapse, given the first third of households rent, the second own with a mortgage and the final third, own with no mortgage.

Housing estimates from the ABS identify that at the last count (2007 – 2008) Australia had 7,914,300 homes, compared to US figures over the same period at 112,362,848. Hardly an intelligent summation given the stark differences – have I loved this housing debate!

As we have discussed previously in Virtual Realty News Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses where (for arguments sake) approximately 1,666 rent, 1,666 own with a mortgage and the other 1,666 own without a mortgage. Interest rate increases affect the 1,666 that have a mortgage and not the 3,222 who rent or own without a mortgage. After looking at 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 house sales in Mosman, I can confidently say that it would take a financial tsunami to see our property prices drop to the levels predicted by Dean Baker.

• Mosman house sales in 2007 – 414
• Mosman house sales in 2008 – 269
• Mosman house sales in 2009 – 322
• Mosman house sales in 2010 – 255

IMF sees risk in ‘mild overvaluation’ of Aussie house prices given it will stress–test Australia’s mortgage market. House prices in eight major cities rose by 18.4 per cent in the year to June, prompting some analysts to warn of a bubble. House building activity hits 18 – month low a direct result of builders on Fort Fumble/Princess Gillard’s playgrounds of gold. Why build with their money when they can build using Gillard’s ‘cash for tuckshop’ building contracts.

I noted whilst reading Macquarie Economics Research The Australian Insider – Outlook for the December quarter 2010, their observations pertaining to the above graphs.

• Stepping back from the state–based detail, it is also obvious that the housing market is in a vastly different position to that prevailing in 2006 – 07. Not only has housing finance fallen by 26% since September 2009, it is also 26 % below its average level over 2006 – 07 (a period when finance was fairly stable). This means that dwelling commencements could easily fall by over 20% over 2011.

Only the uninformed would suggest that Australia has a housing bubble, because it is very clear that we are suffering from an undersupply, not an oversupply. Our non – existent house bubble presents another excellent explanation which takes one back to very basic economics – supply V demand.

When you have a government funded Builders Revolution it’s no wonder the tools are down!

No doubt when they complete their government guaranteed building works (when they return from their respective overseas holiday jaunts) may we again see the cement being poured on construction sites.

As they say “when you’re on a good thing – stick to it” hence, the Builders Education Revolution.

For connoisseurs of outstanding Mosman waterfronts look no further than this sensational Sydney Harbour residence – click here.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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8.10.10Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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The global financial crisis (GFC) has been a fascinating turn of events where businesses and households tweaked, sleeked and critiqued their respective currency flows in a battle for survival. So now we hear that as the good times roll, expect the cost of living to rise exponentially. With interest, I was reading another blog on Business2 which intrigued me.

“While you are talking to Glenn Stevens ask him how come the inflation rate is around 3% when everything we use or consume is rising at a much faster rate than that, and also – how come home mortgage rates in the rest of the world are SO much lower than here. And how come the banks are crying about the cost of funds – and making multi BILLION profits. And why won’t we let some other banks into this country to compete with the Big 4. Also – how come the homeowners of this country have to carry the burden of government stuff ups via monetary policy every time?”  Poignant questions to those residents living on Recovery Road, Australia!

Sydney real estate markets this year have been in a somewhat chill mode, although recent sales results are sending strong indications that the tide is turning and sentiment is starting to heat up. This week’s Mosman real estate sales are the strongest recorded this year as the results show here. Source: Domain Property Data

BUY PRINT

I was consumed by this week’s announcements to the residents on Recovery Road, Australia – starting with The GFC saved Australia. “As an aside, the realities of what really happened at our Big Four banks over the past three years makes CEOs’ extreme pay packets all the more obscene. Remember that the CBA’s $16 million man this year, Ralph Norris, took the top job in 2005 – his latest bonus bonanza supposedly recognises his responsibility for the bank coming out of the GFC in such rude good health. Haven’t seen much impact of his presumed matching responsibility for the bank’s financial and reputational exposure to Storm Financial, ABC Learning, Babcock & Brown et all reaching their crescendo on his watch. Similar remuneration report follies are on the way from ANZ, NAB and Westpac.”

Plain old economic growth is good for society as inflation expectations of 3.1 per cent in September quarter – survey as the RBA beats the inflation war drums. The mining boom will push interest rates up, Reserve Bank’s Glenn Stevens says as the odds shorten for October rate rise. Let the speculation begin when former RBA economist tips 5.75 per cent cash rate which in real terms equates to a 125 basis point increase over the next fifteen months. This would place Australia’s first ever female prime minister at Fort Fumble under increasing pressure, given 2011 could very well be another election year? Which bank? CBA joins calls for an October rate rise despite the release of data this week that household savings fall signals money woes as home loan customers told to brace for $90 – a – month increase in repayments. On top of this the Reserve Bank of Australia revealed this week that the big banks increase penalty charges take 9 per cent to $536 million after more customers fell behind in payments.

Electricity charges have gone through the roof as power bills force big firms to flee from NSW as Fort Crumble continues to mismanage NSW’s power supply where price rises put power to 138,000 people in jeopardy. Opposition energy spokesman Duncan Gay said he would not be surprised if big businesses fled NSW after being forced to bankroll an overdue energy infrastructure upgrade. “NSW Labor has ripped $14 billion out of the state’s energy retailers in dividends and taxes and failed to re-invest in our ageing infrastructure.”

Fort Crumble is encouraging Sydneysiders urged to shift inland as they drown mentally in addressing infrastructure collapses in NSW. The problem with Fort Crumble is that with just six months in power, it doesn’t have a single plan – as public loses all faith with planning process. For example:

Taking the low road to disaster where Fort Crumble has delayed 60 major road projects by at least five years (some longer) because  it can no longer fund urgent road works. No wonder Fort Crumble, hopelessly and embarrassingly broke, is trying to push residents into the bush. There is no greater example of how the present state governments mismanage debt than as state’s debt binge to top $240 billion as private sector faces squeeze. Analysis by The Australian of state (fake) budget round has found that borrowing is forecast to soar 52 per cent from $159.6 billion this year to $243.2 billion in 2014 to help fund upgrades to rundown transport, electricity and water infrastructure. The analysis found NSW and Queensland had the highest level of borrowings and both face re-election within the next six months. Constituents are wondering whether we have state governments or fake governments?

Yes, the road to recovery is long, winding and bloody confusing where even the strings on our elected puppets have worn thin and in NSW, the show can no longer go on. No wonder there is increasing demand for property within five kilometres of the Sydney CBD.

Alas, Fort Fumble embarks on a $45 billion NBN network which will become Australia’s greatest ever white elephant. We need a Very Fast Train to link cities because road works in NSW have virtually ceased.  For the record, wireless (not cable) works very well even on very fast trains.

In answer to the earlier question, “how come homeowners of this country have to carry the burden of government stuff ups via monetary policy every time?”  What Australia needs, is a train of thought – not a broken cable car!

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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24.09.10Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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After all, we are in the greatest performing economy on the planet. Having sailed through and mostly ahead of the global financial crisis (GFC), our property markets once again find themselves positioned at the business–end, following a term of prolonged holding patterns. Ground conditions are perfect for take–off, with clear skies ahead and very little turbulence on the radar. Although what remains unclear, is who will be playing and who will be staying? The buzz word during the GFC was stimulus and it was merchant bankers who stimulated top–end property markets. There was no better example than Mosman, which remains the most expensive municipality (not suburb) in Australia. Bankers’ bonuses have been ‘rivers of gold’ for our bricks and mortar markets (merchant bankers remain our single largest subscribers) although their market engagement appears to have peaked in early 2008.

What is acutely clear, is that households have been actively paying down debt, instead of rolling it over and taking on more. Not that long ago, real estate agents made diary notes as to when the big banks were paying bonuses, which translated into the annual game of house trap!

Property markets move in mysterious ways (remember when the GST was introduced in 2000?). We saw property developers in Mosman gradually withdraw (especially with houses) because the additional ten per cent impacted their returns on investment and this once popular vocation became academic.

BUY PRINT

Pittwater weekenders were also very popular in the real estate indulgence markets where these properties failed the financial reconciliation of the GFC as the owners headed back home.

Another factor that needs to be considered when house values are flat, is that when additional acquisition costs (stamp duty) and selling costs are measured, vendors find themselves at breakeven. This was the norm, when purchasers were playing with additional income streams and stimulating markets with bonuses that can no longer be taken for granted. The following three graphs show the volume of stock on the market for houses and apartments in Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay, with houses showing much more consistent patterns.

MOSMAN

CREMORNE

NEUTRAL BAY

The Punch guide to our rich suburbs and big houses identifies a study conducted 2003–04 and 2007–08 which identified Mosman as having the highest average income in Australia, at $131,606 (the national average is $44,402). Considering that we are now post GFC and these results are more than two years old, it will be interesting to see if there are any significant changes to Sydney’s wealthiest the richest in the land.

Confidence has always provided the much needed oxygen to all financial markets so overseas travellers would be happy this week, to see the dollar bounces as economy worries fade. The question many are asking is ‘will confidence remain sky high’? Consumers turn cautious as outlooks clouds when the Westpac and Melbourne Institute released its index this week which showed that consumer sentiment fell 5 per cent in September to 113.2.

The consumer sentiment must have been taken before Julia Gillard announces cabinet which is just in time as parliament resumes in two weeks. The broadband debate will be riveting given Tony Abbott picks Turnbull to ‘demolish’ Gillard’s broadband plan. I wonder if he read skills shortage threatens Gillard’s NBN pledge when it was revealed the regional rollout could face a skills shortage. “The Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union estimates around 7,000 now have the competency to work on the NBN’s construction, but 25,000 technicians will be needed each year to build and operate the network over the period of its construction.” In the meantime, The Emperor is off to the USA for a sleepover at the White House and here are the other cabinet members.

The big banking announcement of the week was Basel III agreement announced. Global regulators are enforcing rules for banks to hold top–quality capital totalling seven per cent of their risk bearing assets (up from two per cent) to prevent any repeat of the recent international credit crisis. Australian banks are unfazed by tough new rules given they already qualify, with the ANZ sitting on 11.1 per cent, Commonwealth Bank 10.1 per cent, NAB 9.4 per cent and Westpac 8.6 per cent according to Deutsche Bank figures. Our banks are jumping back into the property market as lenders back throwing cash at buyers although our property bubble is too fit to burst. ‘A report last week from Moody’s Investor Service found that delinquency rates are still very low. For example 30+ days – past due delinquencies were 1.34 per cent in June compared to 1.39 per cent in May. That means that less than 2 per cent of loans are falling into arrears of 30 or more days past the due date’.

As stated previously, many Australian households are pre–paying their mortgages. Major banks report that over 55 per cent of mortgagees are ahead on their payment schedule, with 40 per cent, by more than a year. What a pity that U.S.A. banks were not in that position when subprime hit!

Here is a great one on one interview by our very own Steve Patrick with Glen Spratt from Mortgageport.

This video was produced by visualdomain

This week, we celebrated the 10th anniversary of the Sydney Olympic Games. Coincidentally, we celebrated the 10th birthday of Virtual Realty News. Ten years ago, when I sent out our first edition, it went to 38 subscribers (we still have a few of these originals) and look where we are today – $956,784,220 in online subscriber sales and Australia’s longest and most successful online newsletter. I am proud to say that over that time we have never missed a single edition. We have quite a few new initiatives in store and will be working very closely with visualdomain to produce fortnightly/monthly (still working that out) video editions of Virtual Realty News for those who don’t want to read them. Stay tuned for many more real estate industry firsts!

All will be revealed soon.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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17.09.10Robert Simeon4 Comments »

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Try telling that to Fort Crumble who are in a desperate wait for all the cows to come home where the fields are alive with the sound of Independents. The rural revolution is coming thanks to Election 2010 which now resembles a classic case of “foot and mouth” disease, prompting post – election behaviour that could even suggest the arrival of “mad cow” disease on Australian shores. The classic symptoms were noticeable well before Australia was herded to the polls last Saturday – erratic behaviour, aggressive demeanour, disorientated memory and agitated herd mentality. The paddocks now require new fences and boundaries – hay hay, Australia has been hung out to dry.

The post electoral shin dig over at the back paddock had to be cancelled, due to a lack of support which sparked headline act Midnight Soil to go batty as they were coming out of retirement after agreeing to make a one–off election appearance.

Like a bull at a gate, the Mad Monk waved his red robe Abbott attacks Labor’s ‘civil war’ and the mantra could he heard all over the paddock reject Labor: voters’ message to independent MP’s as the hollow men led Labor to disaster. Then the head heifer corralled one of her baby bulls when PM bans powerbroker Arbib from appearing on Q&A. Such was the Labor of Love given the odds shorten on next Labor leader where it keeps getting worse as Gillard in big trouble no what happens given we have a tortuous road to government.

BUY PRINT

Back at the barn, even the cats showed their respective claws as the meows fast turned into a hissy fit McKew a ‘Labor hero’: Keneally then axing Rudd a strategic blunder:McKew. Then Rudd’s fault for dismal result, says Keneally although the alley cats were purring at a sneak preview of a Keneally bloodbath when the cool cats over in NSW go to the polls next March. NSW Labor headed for wipe out which brought about a familiar change after Julia … it’s the real Kristina.

Over in the northern paddock, more cats were hysterically meowing (as against dogs barking) where there was plenty of crying over spilt milk. I won’t suffer Rudd’s fate, says Bligh then Keneally lashed out at Bligh’s ‘NSW disease’ jibe. The 2010 Federal Election today resembles Old MacDonald’s farm although at this point we don’t envisage that the war will be enough to see our soldiers brought back home to restore order given disparities in voters’ priorities are even more stark now. Plenty of cries to cut the crap as electorates keep asking where is the vision? Now we have fighting on two fronts Labor war hurting bid for power and now Coalition begins its own civil war.

What spring promises for the market as sales sizzle, auctions cool although for the time being our property markets wrestles with election uncertainty. Australia this time around won’t be paying that much attention to what is happening in America given Obama running out of time to fix economy. This was not helped when this week it was revealed that US existing home sales dive to 15 – year low which is otherwise known as tumbling houses. Quite the opposite here in Australia given the latest HIA – CBA Housing Affordability Report identifies that more than ever before our property markets are out of reach. We are seeing some areas where prices are dropping then on the other side of the coin the prices are now increasing. Household debt in Australia has risen dramatically over the past three decades, but the number of home repossessions in Victoria and NSW is on the decline because we are keeping up the payments.

Last week we brought you the Dyson Austen Top 10 Prestige Residential Survey for January – March 2010 so this week we continue with the April – June 2010 results.

Interesting to note that the Eastern Suburbs recorded eight of the sales and Mosman posted two sales with RWM recording one of these two transactions. There are two interesting conclusions that can be observed from this data. Firstly, the top–end sales appear to be rebounding with suggestions that the upcoming Spring/Summer markets may see increased competition for these trophy homes. This was always going to happen – just that nobody really knew when.

Secondly, we have a new record since the global financial crisis (GFC).

The Dyson Austen Report, Simon Feilich acknowledged “if we look at this result (above) and the highest transaction ever achieved in the survey history ($45 million – Q3 2008) both sales occurred at a time when the $AU/US has just been devalued by 12% and almost 10% respectively.”

“NOTE: The jumbo prestige residential market is directly linked to the performance of the equity market, with the only other main external factor being the $AU/US rate as seen in Q3 2008 and the latest released Q2 2010.”

Since the election debacle the $A has started to fall again, due largely to the uncertainties ahead. It appears the nobody can form a government and even if they do, it will be a s#*& fight with all the internal bickering.

So I predict we will all be headed back to the polls in October.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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27.08.10Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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That is what The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) thought and now they are fighting words where Fort Fumble (Federal Government) will be forced to perform yet another monumental back – flip on policy. Back to that over-worked drawing board where a 2010 federal budget is on the political rack.  The gloves are off as government and miners trade blows over tax as Wayne’s world comes unstuck which should not come as a great surprise when one looks at a government built around crumbling policy failures.

Ross Gittins in the Sydney Morning Herald wrote this  interesting story “Shonky advisers have led Rudd badly astray” It’s not just The Emperor’s reputation on the line, the Australian economy is on the nose too. The Minister for Mining, Ken Henry, who these days is wearing many hats, has a different interpretation.

Rudd’s dollar delusion – Since the end of April, the Australian dollar has been hit much harder than the euro, so for our decline to be entirely linked to the global crisis, Australia would need to be on its knees with a huge debt problem. But, of course, as Kevin Rudd correctly points out, the Australian government is in a strong borrowing position.  Leaving aside what was apparent in the marketplace, logic dictates that the mining tax had to be part of the slump.  A cavalier effort last Friday when dollar rout ‘stemmed by Reserve Bank’.

Let’s look back at The Emperor’s blackboard of back – flips: save the whales, fuelwatch, grocerywatch, kids laptops, takeover of hospitals by mid 2009, hospital reform, schools stimulus infrastructure programme, 2020 Summit (where he met Kate Blanchet), insulation program, refugees,  insulation industry, foreign investment review board removal, mining tax, childcare centre building program, carbon emissions programme and of course his “greatest moral challenge of our time” the list goes on. Is this the worst CV in Australia’s political history? In search of a photographic capture that best describes Fort Fumble’s business and economic outlook?

BUY PRINT

On Q&A this week, former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser (stole the show for mine) when he took this question from the audience and what a wordsmith he  is (and resigned from the Liberal party).

Paul Sherrington: “Controversial Melbourne columnists like Andrew Bolt and others have declared the Rudd Government to be the worst and most wasteful government in living memory, perhaps unfairly. Given a choice between the Whitlam Government, as you intimately know it, Mr Fraser, and the Rudd Government so far, which do you think is better?”

Malcolm Fraser: “Oh, you’ve got to say – I’d use different terms; “least worst”. The Rudd Government so far, but you didn’t take a very good – I don’t want to criticise journalists, because you know, some journalists have very extreme views and generally only report one side of a question, as we’ve heard, perhaps. The administrative failures of the current government, whether it’s in delivering houses to indigenous people, or whether it’s in putting insulation in roofs or building classrooms for schools with government schools costing several times what it costs private schools, or what other things they have sought to administer? They’re going to muck up the hospitals next. The administrative failures are gross and half of them aren’t pursued by the opposition and the administrative  failures are as great, if not greater, than the administrative failures in Gough Whitlam’s government. But Gough’s failures were of a different kind, of a different quality, and I don’t want to go into those now. It wasn’t straight out of administering what should have been a plain, straightforward programme, which for some reason this government seems totally incapable of doing.”

Now to those other deposits – not mineral but banking.  This week, we saw the “Big Four” banks  realise, given the current economic movements, (downwards) that they now ant your hard earned monies trapped away in their vaults – the banking oxygen of the future. Global Financial Crisis II looms if debt woes grow so it is reasonable to assume that our banks urgently require a topping up of liquid funds. Lending ratios have fallen from 100 per cent to 60 per cent in a matter of months for residential properties. The current offers are 6.00 + which is much higher than the current cash rate of 4.50 per cent. I would not lock and load in yet as it will get higher given the global demand for money. Throw in the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia announced this week that credit card purchases rose 12.2 per cent over the year to March 2010. The value of purchases made in March was $19.9 billion, up by $2.1 billion from the previous year.

A busy few weeks for the Reserve Bank of Australia – who just released its Competition in the Deposit Market. See a pattern forming? For depositors, retribution, given term deposits are now challenging investment in the shock market, hedge funds can’t short you now and no more wild ride for Australian equities.
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We are definitely witnessing a shift where businesses and households are actively paying down debt as a direct result of the uncertain times ahead. Unsustainable home loans are of great concern where we now have a rise in middle – class bankrupts where even the Pope, ECB chief slam spendthrift governments. In Australia, we are already witnessing first hand interest rises kicking the stuffing out of auction clearance rates.

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This explains why deposit rates are suddenly attracting all the attention at the moment and in all probability will remain a major player for the foreseeable future. Work within the markets and not without them as this is not a viable time to pinch – hit profit taking models. Ever seen a correction before? Not sure if Hedge funds are actually not Dredge funds and it should also be noted that  Fort Crumble (NSW government) has successfully dredged NSW where in terms of infrastructure, it is now paralysed by parliamentary past performances. Prepare for 20 years of transport despair given it will be decades before any new roads are built.

Fort Crumble approves 4,500 new North shore houses where residents will now spend their annual leave on the Pacific Highway. Cashed – up foreigners snap up homes who spent $14.900 billion on houses and land last year. Once again The Emperor identified that he is an economic  illiterate and foreign investors selected Victoria and Queensland ahead of NSW. NSW once upon a time, like the fairytale, was the number one choice.

Sydney one of the world’s top 10 cities Australia’s other state capitals are out of the world’s top 20, but still in the top 40, with Perth ranked 21, Canberra 26, Adelaide 32 and Brisbane at 36.

• Vienna, Austria
• Zurich, Switzerland
• Geneva, Switzerland
• (tie) Auckland, New Zealand
• (tie) Vancouver, Canada
• Dusseldorf, Germany
• (tie) Frankfurt, Germany
• (tie) Munich, Germany
• Bern, Switzerland
• Sydney, Australia

As Malcolm Fraser once said “life was not meant to be easy” which he scripted from within his very own government. I wonder what it should be under the present Labor regime? A suggestion: hey “big spender” bankruptcy is our very own act of life!

The number of security clearances of asylum seekers by ASIO has risen tenfold in recent years. (Security clearances by asylum seekers up) in 2008/09 ASIO processed 207 irregular security assessments and in the period of July 2009 to March 2010 – 2028 assessments, which is attributed to KRudd border security – and guess who pays for that?

Our website sponsors announced this week - First Home Buyers offered a helping hand from Mortgageport which many subscribers to Virtual Realty News will find interesting. Also, the Balmoral Burn is on this Sunday and this event has become an iconic Sydney event.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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28.05.10Robert Simeon9 Comments »