.
It was more like an episode from Yes Minister, where both Fort Fumble (Federal Government) and Fort Crumble (NSW Government) tried to outdo one another at the Ministries for Incompetence and Implosion (what an art form they made of it). Fort Crumble is hardly flush with cash as it languishes in deficit yet it still manages to masticate on its scrapped CBD Metro for a north – west rail link which is now its tenth transport cancellation.

The Ministry for Incompetence and Implosion then asked voters to “take it on trust, because work would not begin until 2014 at the earliest”. Obviously nobody at Fort Crumble knows how to read a poll Confirmed: scrapped Metro cost $271 million because this would have to be close to the greatest stuff – up in NSW’s parliamentary history. To reassure voters, it then introduced a $30 – a – year – levy on motor vehicle registrations which is estimated to deliver $500 million over 10 years.Would it be improper to suggest that liquidators will be called in well before 2014? Yes Minister!

The Premier, Kristina Keneally was on a roll when endorsing a plan to build one of Sydney’s biggest hotels which just happens to be 100 metres out over Sydney Harbour. Harbour high – rise breaks all the rules but she insisted that this decision would not create a precedent that other developers would seek to follow? Well Sarah, (I mean Kristina) a precedent is defined as: any act, decision, or case that serves as a guide or justification for subsequent situations. Yes Minister!

Tim Mooney flew to Melbourne this week and why not? A fantastic shot of Melbourne CBD and the Yarra River.

Tim Mooney Photography

The other Ministry for Incompetence and Implosion – Fort Fumble had The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) going somewhat batty when his rock star minister somehow lost his voice Peter Garrett dumps dodgy home insulation scheme. Call me a cynic, but I observed that the announcement was scheduled for 1.45 pm last Friday. Torah Bright won gold at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver at 1.00 pm in the half pipe – must have been either a coincidence or political spin. Yes Minister!

Whilst The Emperor accepts ultimate responsibility for his insulation debacle which has been linked to four deaths and 93 house fires, with another 80,000 houses at risk, this scheme cost taxpayers $2.500 billion and thousands will be out of work after insulation back flip. The Emperor was quick to appease a voter backlash so (he pledged another $42 million) to the (approximately) 7,500 businesses installing installation and 180,000 houses that have to be re-checked. The Emperor’s rock star minister declared that he can read music but not commissioned reports. When the Minter Ellison Report was handed to his stage hands in April 2009, it took ten months to arrive in the rock star’s recording studio – Yes Minister!

The Emperor had to move fast as Torah Bright had concluded her Olympic event – so out came the announcement $69 million for biometric checks in counter – terrorism. It was suggested that some are: Going batty over blah – blah. Paul Sheehan from the Sydney Morning Herald had a different spin: How Rudd the dud dropped Australia in alphabet soup. A horrific week for Fort Fumble: Collins subs top $7 billion of dud projects submarines don’t require Pink Batts). It was just not cricket when it was announced that the Victorian gocernment was flying 25 Indian journalists to Australia at a cost of $250,000 – business class flights, tours of the Melbourne Cricket Ground (our cricketers are in New Zealand), concert tickets and accommodation at top hotels – to show that everything is hunky dory Down Under. Despite some saying Indian money ‘could be better spent’ one would think that given the intoxication and obsession with governments to spend money that we are actually in surplus – (obviously they believe that we are).

The debate then moved to Australia’s mortgage debt blow – out when Chris Zappone wrote in the Sydney Morning Herald “The federal government relaxed its foreign investment rules for residential property early last year. Whilst the controlling body, the Foreign Investment Review Board, does not disclose the exact number of sales to overseas investors, anecdotal reports from would – be local buyers and real estate agents across the country point to a surge in spending from Asia – particularly mainland China. Agents are also setting up offices in China and arranging “property tourism” to tap the demand.” I am a strong believer that our real estate market needs to be local not international and it would be very interesting to see why The Emperor changed these qualification rules? Are they considering returning to the previous status quo?

Furthermore, under his regime will it remain in place given the economic recovery in Australia? The Housing Industry Association (HIA) noted that (home ownership was even more out of reach) when housing affordability tanked 18.4 per cent in the December quarter and was 22.3 per cent lower than twelve months earlier. The HIA is predicting a modest housing recovery in 2010 with about 152,000 dwelling starts and we need international competition?

Housing debt is in overdrive where the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) figures identify that housing debt hit $910.1 billion in December, which is up 17 per cent over the twelve months and up 92 per cent since December 2004. Total housing debt is set to reach $1 trillion within the next twelve months and rest assured, interest rates will be heading up not down.

The Emperor has plenty on his plate all in an election year Rudd, Gillard fight over who foots the bill for $1,800 canapés and champagne wow – when it rains it pours.

This week we broke a new Australian record when subscriber sales hit $904,079,220 and real estate agencies are just starting to know what a database can do! From the good, to the bad and ugly Estate agent Shannon Daniels made a real killing I can’t believe that somebody would be dumb enough to run his “Deceased Estate (Vendors Dying To Sell)” campaign given the vendors are very much alive and well.

Given the lodged complaints Shannon Daniels won’t be hearing – thank you, Mr Hooker!

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here – the auctioneers hammer was silent in Mosman

This open for inspections – here

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26.02.10Robert Simeon9 Comments »

Our Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) appears to be much busier of late with early indications pointing to the Mosman house market as now in active engagement. What a difference a week can make and we are certainly not talking apparitions – rather anecdotal sales evidence. Expats have suddenly upgraded their position to buy recommendations and the 2008 house rules of engagement no longer appear to bear any resemblance.

On our blog last week, Patricia requested “Robert … An acknowledgement and analysis of the factors surrounding the high inventory of upper – end homes ($3,000,000+) that have been on the market for 6+ months (some almost a year) would be illuminating.” I love blogs as they get to the coal face of our property markets. Watch for more agencies offering this facility (highly unlikely).

In our first edition this year we highlighted the fact that (according to Australian Property Monitors) Mosman in 2008 transacted just 219 sales which is the lowest volume in decades. The hangover of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In 2007, Mosman, recorded 384 house transactions and in 2006 the volume was 440. Back to 2008 where the last six months was an absolute disaster evidenced by the following data.

January 2008 – 8 house sales

February 2008 – 24 house sales

March 2008 – 24 house sales

April 2008 – 25 house sales

May 2008 – 30 house sales

June 2008 – 20 house sales

The GFC decline

July 2008 – 17 house sales

August 2008 – 22 house sales

September 2008 – 13 house sales

October 2008 – 14 house sales

November 2008 – 12 house sales

December 2008 – 9 house sales

Many owners who might otherwise be selling, have to decided to hold their market position. After the Stock Market crash of 1987 where the economy came to a complete halt many forget that our property markets were in full boom just six months later in June 1988.

The buyers are calling for blood and vendors are blowing raspberries!

When I look at www.domain.com.au (the number one Mosman property portal) there are 147 houses listed – then when I remove co-agents and apartments that sneak in, it actually comes to 127. The greatest myth in Mosman is that half the market is for sale. This would equate to 2,450 houses which is a complete nonsense. Currently just 2.5 to 3 per cent are on the market. A far cry from our previous house volume trades of 6 to 8 per cent which we put down to the raspberry factor.

Back to Patricia and our blog “Hello again … Another disquieting aspect of the current Mosman market is the high volume of single –family homes available for lease for $1,000+ /wk.

In a normal market, www.domain.com.au ordinarily lists 40 – 45 Mosman houses for lease. Currently there are over 90 available with the majority over $1,000/wk. MANY of these have been available for several months. It appears that the corporate leasing markets have all but disappeared.
Thanks for any thoughts on this leasing segment.”

The leasing market for houses is actually on par with normal market demand and when one removes the double-dipping, Mosman has actually just 66 houses for lease. Although Domain lists this week’s volume as being 77 houses. It needs to be noted that more than a few properties are multi listed. The top-end of the market is somewhat weak – a result of the GFC. It should be noted that a few vendors who have sold have gone into rental properties.

Back to bottoms – up! When you look at this week’s sales activity (remember where you read it first), RWM sold two properties for $3.025 million and $3.500 million, a home in Waitovu Street was sold for $3.800 million, Prince Albert Street $6.000 million, Hopetoun Avenue $7.000 million and the big double digit Clifton Garden’s sale. RWM posted the highest recorded sale for 2008 with the sale of a Raglan Street waterfront for $14.700 million and last week’s sale is not far behind it. Congratulations to Richard Simeon who negotiated both these sales. All the sales recorded over the last week were Internet based advertising campaigns. I am of the opinion that our Mosman property market has now bottomed (given the current anecdotal sales evidence) when compared to the 2008 sales volumes.

I will address the stimulus package next week. What I find interesting is that Kevin Rudd is allocating taxpayer funds that our hopeless and useless State Governments were supposed to expend, based on tax receipts. Much like Mum and Dad bailing out a sibling on a margin call. Kevin Rudd is attempting to buy another term in government at taxpayer expense. Double dipping in taxation is simply not acceptable. State wastage is of greater concern. On the 7.30 Report this week host Kerry O’Brien asked Prime Minister Kevin Rudd if the NSW government would struggle to assemble a Lego set, let alone an infrastructure package. Rudd did not answer the question (for very obvious reasons).

State governments complained when Australia was in economic growth that they needed greater GST receipts and let’s be honest we are in mild recession. Just that it takes eight months to be told that we are in recession. The GST receipts will be down by forty per cent so Fort Crumble (NSW Government) is now bankrupt.

Bottoms – up and cheers to that and blog away ^__^

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6.02.09Robert Simeon10 Comments »