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The circuses at Forts Fumble and Crumble are folding their tents because, with below par performances, the crowds are disgruntled.  Angry voters ready to give Rudd the red card an amazing turnaround where this fairy–floss policy is being eaten away and RSPT now means ‘Return Sender Priority Termination’.  Having said that, under the big tent in Canberra, The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) is the  star performer of his pet event – the back flip, which he performs with ease.  It would be much easier to call an election and put the RSPT to a referendum.

Can the tax be fixed when Rudd says it’s not broken? The Emperor appears to be a broken man bearing no resemblance to Broken Hill. Kevin Rudd fights dissent in ALP ranks yet the Ring Master PM Kevin Rudd holds line on mining tax reform. The trampoline at Fort Fumble is losing its bounce, as Peter van Onselen declared this week in The Australian novices at the wheel of state. It was revealed that two thirty year olds and a thirty one year old, with no experience in the labour movement and next to none in industry or business, are coaching The Emperor with his back – flips. “However, now that Rudd appears out of his depth, caught up in poorly constructed defences of policy positions and back downs over challenges he had previously described as too important to walk away from (think emissions trading), the trio is being blamed for bad advice that could culminate in Rudd becoming the first Prime Minister in nearly 80 years to lose office after one term.”

The show must go on…..

Bugger – I thought I had Tim with this week’s request. Thinking North Pole next week!

BUY PRINT

Having read the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board and feeling somewhat comfortable that one institution has its act together, out came Australian housing market ‘a time bomb’.

Humming “send in the clowns” and in they came. “The Australian and British housing markets are the last two bubbles left in the wake of the financial crisis, and it is only a matter of time before they crash, warns legendary US investor and co – founder of global investment firm GMO, Jeremy Grantham. Mr Grantham famously reported a year before the global financial crisis: “In five years, I expect that at least one major bank (broadly defined will have failed and that up to half the hedge funds and a substantial percentage of the private equity firms in existence today will have simply ceased to exist”. The Australian reported yesterday that he said “ Australia had an unmistakable housing bubble and that prices would need to come down by 42 per cent to return to the long – term trend”.  “You cannot possibly miss it,” he said.

Reserve Bank waters down fears of real estate housing bubble and consumer sentiment is holding up. The Real Estate Institute of Australia weighed in No housing bubble in Australia citing over the period December 1996 – December 2009, median house prices increased from around $160k to around $500k; a trebling in thirteen years. Within this period there were four phases:

• From December 1996 to September 2000, median house prices in Australia showed a moderate average growth of 2.1 per cent per quarter.
• From December 2000 to December 2003, house prices appreciated at a greater rate of 3.9 per cent per quarter on average.
• From March 2004 to December 2008, house price growth moderated to an average growth of 0.8 per cent per quarter.
• During 2009, growth of median house prices again accelerated to 2.9 per cent per quarter.

Time to take a Mosman tent snapshot to see where we are today, compared to this time last year. The messages are mixed as the results show. We collated the data from Domainpropertydata and it should be noted, that a significant number of sales in 2010 are yet to record a sale price because of confidentiality agreements. It will take a few more months before we have an exact position, so these figures will be higher, rather than lower.

Mosman house and semi sales 1 January 2009 – 15 June 2009

• Total number offered – 148 @ $329,394,627
• Total number sold – 132 @ $305,159,627
• Private Treaty – 120 @ $280,714,627
• Auction – 12 @ $24,445,000
• Total Combined Median – $1,815,500
• Total Combined Average – $2,347,381
• Highest Price – $13,200,000
• Lowest Price – $975,000

Mosman house and semi sales 1 January 2010 – 15 June 2010

• Total number offered – 171 @ $276,487,629 (2009 – $329,394,627)
• Total number sold – 147 @ $276,487,629 (2009 – $305,159,627)
• Private Treaty – 91 @ $206,089,629 (2009 – $280,714,627)
• Auction – 56 @ $70,398,000 (2009 – $24,445,000)
• Total Combined Median $2,105,000 (2009 – $1,815,500)
• Total Combined Average $2,425,330 (2009 – $2,347,381)
• Highest Price – $11,000,000 (2009 – $13,200,000)

The Auction Comparisons

• 2009 Number Auctioned – 34 (2010 – 87)
• 2009 Number Withdrawn – 27 (2010 – 10)
• 2009 Number Sold – 12 (2010 – 56)
• 2009 Clearance Rate – 35 % (2010 – 64 %)
• 2009 Adjusted Clearance Rate – 20 % (2010 – 58 %)

The challenge ahead for real estate in 2010

This is not confined to the Mosman market. All real estate markets will face the challenge of matching and/or bettering the sales results recorded in the 1 July 2009 – 31 December 2009 market where results were significantly higher, compared to the previous six months.

Mosman house and semi sales 1 July 2009 – 31 December 2009

• Total number offered – 192 @ $418,706,750
• Total number sold – 174 @ $408,296,750
• Private Treaty – 127 @ $340,354,750
• Auction – 47 @ $67,942,000
• Total Combined Median – $2,250,000
• Total Combined Average – $2,617,286
• Highest Price – $12,000,000
• Lowest Price – $836,000

There is no way to avoid  the fact that our property markets have slowed since April economic recovery seen losing steam.  Events in Europe and of course the ongoing hangover of the RSPT debacle have  also been major contributors. So back to those green shoots we go – home building the biggest in nearly six years and investors ignore signs and pile into property.

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that while home loans to owner/occupiers fell a seasonally adjusted ten per cent in the first four months of the year, lending to property investors rose eleven per cent. In the past year, lending to investors rose thirty per cent nationwide, and twenty per cent in NSW.

Our property markets (historically) tend to hibernate over winter so I wouldn’t read too much into present activity. It’s actually a good time to buy!  It does appear however, that the “fat lady” won’t be singing for some time to come, which shows just how hard it is to read property markets. Unlike the share markets, we don’t have buy and sell recommendations.  Investors are selling out of the stock market and moving their funds into the property markets – another clue?

Word from Sideshow Alley this week is that The Emperor is considering performing until April 2011 where he will call an election. Looks like his advisers consider it would be smart to go to the polls immediately following the Fort Crumble election in March 2011. I wonder if this weekends by – election in Penrith may change that decision?

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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18.06.10Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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I did a Google (Australia’s most visited website) key word search on Global Financial Crisis (GFC) this week and found 33,400,000 results that identify just how popular this acronym has become since its creation in late 2007. Australian Policy Online this week published an interesting report The economic vitality report: the impact of the GFC on Australians. This report draws some interesting conclusions namely:

• The GFC proved to be more a slowdown than a recession in Australia.
• In early 2009, there was a high level of concern regarding the economy. This was short lived, owing to effective fiscal and monetary policy measures, and by the end of 2009 the economy gained momentum (recently confirmed by economic growth data).
• The GFC had a different impact on different age groups.
• Indicative of the success of economic policy, spending across the board increased and spiked, following government cash handouts and tax cuts. There was no evidence of consumers having a frugal Christmas in 2009.
• Even though the economy improved throughout 2009, more consumers felt their personal circumstances had declined.

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With one hundred percent confidence we can advise that this week’s picture is of Garden Island – just don’t ask where the garden or island is?

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Tim Mooney Photography

Whilst in Australia economic growth is expected to continue the latest Westpac – Melbourne Institute leading index indicated that the likely pace of activity three to nine months into 2010 posted an annualised growth rate of 6.3 per cent. This is well above the previous predicted growth rate of 2.7 per cent.

Encouraging – although what we do know is that whilst temporarily marinated in the GFC, Australia has a systemic infrastructure epidemic emerging (actually it has been there for years). Lack of housing will challenge recovery – Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) assistant governor (economics) Philip Lowe said “the rate of increase in homes has been below the average of the past fifty years, while population has increased at its fastest pace over the same period.”

Stockland managing director Matthew Quinn was much more succinct, declaring that Australia faces a housing affordability “time bomb”. “Australia’s current shortage of 200,000 homes and an annual shortfall of 60,000, would balloon to 800,000 by 2020, if no reforms were undertaken.” This is what I have been saying for ages. The hopeless and misguided Nation Building expend – a – thon is nothing more than an economic embarrassment where housing not schools, should be the priority.

Housing shortage to quadruple Australia’s shortage of available homes will more than quadruple to almost half a million by 2020 if the nation doesn’t increase the pace of construction. The Housing Industry Association (HIA) identified a need for 466,000 new homes to be built by 2020 (currently down by 109,000).

We need a population strategy although Fort Fumble (Federal Government) would point to this week’s announcement by the Australian Bureau of Statistics that new home starts rose by 15.1 per cent (40,022 commencements) in the December quarter of 2009. This is the biggest quarterly increase since 2001 (an 11 per cent increase from the September quarter).
Hold off the celebrations. The real Litmus Test will be revealed with the March quarter results when we see the effect on the real market after the First Home Buyers Grant was removed. More on struggle street as prices, rate rises, the average size of a home loan has risen by forty per cent since 2005. More than half a million Australians are now struggling to meet their repayments according to Fujitsu’s Mortgage Stress survey and rates are heading up not down.

Throw in this week’s announcement from Fort Crumble (NSW Government) that electricity bills will raise by a cumulative total of 64 per cent by 2013. The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry advised the RBA this week to hold fire on interest rate hikes until they have a better understanding of the Australian economy. I predict a March quarter decline from the December quarter results for home prices in some areas – given March is the first quarter minus the First Home Buyer Grants.

Our top – end markets will continue to do well because being close to the Central Business District, infrastructure is already in place. However, for those heading west, things can only get worse as all infrastructure initiatives have now been curtailed. Fort Crumble is a classic example as it has absolutely no infrastructure policies on its respective radar. The Australian published this week a very interesting graph that identifies how well our top – end markets are progressing following the GFC Wealthy buyers push prestige prices up.

What can’t be ignored is our congestion problem. Fort Crumble has canned all transport infrastructure initiatives because it is broke. The State of Australian Cities Report identified that productivity growth in Australia’s seventeen capital cities (populations greater than 100,000) was critical to our economy. Australia faces a $20b congestion problem where road congestion, estimated at $9.4 billion in 2005, was likely to rise to $20 billion by 2020. Population boom means double trouble for the west with Sydney’s population due to balloon 40 per cent in 30 years. New forecasts reveal the number of people in the south – west will more than double while those in the city centre will leap 60 per cent. Not a fantastic outlook given Road congestion tax mooted is congestion the toll for a free road? As there will be no need for listening to radio as consumers will be listening to electronic government toll contribution sounds as they drive around Sydney.

MOSMAN HOUSE & SEMI SALES SAME PERIOD 2009 – 2010

1 JANUARY 2009 TO 18 MARCH 2009 – 1 JANUARY 2010 TO 18 MARCH 2010

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• 2009 – Total properties offered 50
• 2010 – Total properties offered 62
• 2009 – Total properties sold 40
• 2010 – Total properties sold 53
• 2009 – Auction 3 sales
• 2009 – Private Treaty 37 sales
• 2010 – Auction 33 sales
• 2010 – Private Treaty 20 sales

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Note: When we publish the weekly sales each week (Click Here). The previous week’s ‘withdrawn’ or ‘passed in’ auction properties (strangely some week’s later) now appear as Sold Auction results.

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• 2009 – Total Value Sold $110,025,000
• 2010 – Total Value Sold $83,754,000
• 2009 – Average Price $2,821,153
• 2010 – Average Price $2,263,621

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We will be updating these sales results every few weeks for your observation.

Figures provided from Domain Property Data

Household finances worsen as rates rise and Wayne Swan has advised that business will be consulted on tax review which will be released before the May 11 budget – so work on May 10 – Fort Fumble refuse to release this working paper (due in March). Even better, the Fort Crumble Fudge-it which is close to being declared as insolvent. Watch this Saturday’s state elections in Tasmania and South Australia with interest.

Kevin Rudd hits new low with voters –  The Emperor can ill afford any huge swings from the Labor faithful given that he is next up on the election front.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

This week’s RWM open for inspections Click Here

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19.03.10Robert Simeon9 Comments »

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I’m not talking about the de-throning of the Minister for Pink Batts (Peter Garrett) debacle either! Rather, just exactly what went wrong with their misguided Nation Building spend fest that has now resonated into a property boom (in some areas). History shows such market movements can be contagious, as was subprime, which brought about the global financial crisis (GFC). Fort Fumble (Federal Government) reacted by directing its spending obsession into schools (with plaques) when in fact, it should have taken aim at our housing, transport and health debacles. What Messrs. Rudd and Swan missed, was that all Australians live in houses, use transport, and do require hospital assistance.  By comparison, a much smaller percentage attends school – another no brainer!

The 7.30 Report ran an interesting piece this week Australian houses amongst least affordable in the world. Its working paper was the latest release of the 6^th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2010 which is always an interesting read. As Kerry O’Brien stated “There is some concern that this latest property boom again raises the spectre of an unhealthy bubble; but there’s a range of contradictory elements at work that potentially pose a profound challenge for Australian authorities.” In 2009, Australia constructed around 130,000 homes nationally when we needed to build 190,000 to meet population growth. In 2010 it is projected that Australia will construct just 152,000 homes – so Fort Fumble has builders working on schools? Home prices will continue to rise as will rents too! Supply is not even close to meeting demand.

It was Nude Opera this week when renowned photographer Spencer Tunick enticed approximately 5,200 Australians to bare all on the forecourt. A case of love the one you’re with or maybe a case of I spy with my little eye someone beginning with…? The shoot has been called Mardi Gras: The Base.

Tim Mooney Photography

It was another tough week for The Emperor who fronted The 7.30 Report Kevin the confessor and said  “We are taking a whacking in the polls now. I’m sure we’ll take an even bigger whacking in the period ahead, and the bottom line is I think we deserve it, both – not just in terms of recent events, but more broadly.” True, when The Daily Telegraph ran “Prime Minister Kevin Rudd losing support in western Sydney” the Mad Monk seized the moment “Rudd rattled, says Abbott” then The Emperor (later to morph as Dr. Emperor) faced an attack from within “Rudd mea culpas have shot party in foot, say ministers”. Never one to miss an opportunity, I grabbed this comment on The 7.30 Report – Kevin the confessor.

The Emperor “One of the problems that we have had as a government, for which I accept responsibility, is we didn’t anticipate how hard it was going to be delivering things.” PM, this is otherwise known as business acumen. The Mad Monk responded “Kevin Rudd thinks he’s the economic genius who saved Australia from a recession but the public might conclude he’s just won the gold medal for waste.”

With his new policies on the run, now Dr. Emperor is taking a scalpel to our hospitals. Amazing what a difference a week makes. This political operation long overdue and Kevin Rudd to cut away the dead tissue of our ailing health care system Dr. Emperor moved into a totally different theatre, that being the operating theatre – Rudd announces $30.9 funding takeover of the public hospitals where just a week from the Pink batt debacle  Rudd’s hospital reform more radical than 1984 Medicare revamp. So how is The Emperor going to doctor our hospitals? Rudd takes $50 bn from states for hospitals. Not bad, given they are already in deficit with a growing interest payment of nearly $20 billion per annum. We found two great articles that critiqued Dr. Emperor’s health announcement Graphs galore but answers to big hospital reform questions are scarce by Lenore Taylor of the Sydney Morning Herald and Steve Murphy from Business Spectator Balance of Power. Australian states and territories are currently drowning in debt to the tune of approximately $133 billion which is about the equivalent of what Fort Fumble now owes (both increasing not decreasing)

Fort Crumble (NSW government) would be ‘champing at the bit’ given, NSW takes the biggest slice in GST handouts. This no doubt  assisted their  mortgagee – in – possession sale of “NSW Lotteries sold in $1 billion deal”where a confused Treasurer Eric Roozendaal said, “That means total proceeds of the sale of NSW Lotteries for NSW taxpayers of more than $1 billion – money that will go straight into funding frontline services for the families of NSW like teachers, police and nurses, and strengthening the state’s balance sheet.” He later said the sale proceeds would go directly into paying down the state’s debt – a margin call?

Pulling plenty of strings, our “Puppet Premier” then embarked on an estimated $750,000 television campaign in an attempt to convince constituents just how Australian she really is. No mention of NSW Labor just her website Kristina Keneally – although I did notice that our Puppet Premier forgot that when any Premier runs an advertorial they always have our Australian flag in the background – another massive blunder! It keeps getting worse “NSW fails to secure funding for infrastructure” in a staggering admission (not really) Fort Crumble announced that it was awaiting an invitation. Infrastructure Australia then advised that submissions were not by invitation only – Fort Crumble consistently hopeless. Yes Minister!
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So let’s look at what has happened in our Mosman market compared to same time in 2009. Bearing mind that in 2010 some sales are yet to be recorded at Domain Property Data.

Houses – I January 2009 to 1 March 2009 compared to 1 January 2010 to 1 March 2010

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As you can see, it is line ball where we will be monitoring results throughout 2010 and calling it as it is. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) moved the cash rate upwards this week by 0.25 per cent to 4.00 per cent and here is (what the economists said) about this week’s increase. Certainly when the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that Australians spent $20.100 billion on a shopping spree in January this did not help the RBA’s decision.

As quick as a flash, the banks jumped on the increase where the standard variable rates are;

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Of greater concern is The Emperor’s move into hospitals and his threat to call a referendum should the broke states and territories not agree. Since Federation, there have been 44 referendums and just 8 have been successful. Success of late, has not been one of The Emperors strong points. Then again it is an election year so anything goes. Policy on the run can have dire consequences. Just look at Fort Crumble selling off state assets.

Our Puppet Premier in white – another clue! That flag was raised years ago so (the Fort has some continuity), what assets are next? What do you think about Dr. Rudd’s hospital announcement? Obviously one week’s work and better known as “policy on the run” to stop his poll haemorrhaging voter dissent.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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5.03.10Robert Simeon8 Comments »

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There is no doubting the volatility of home prices and this became more evident when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided not to increase the official cash rate. The new money in our property markets is under serious threat. So too, are the financial institutions which can ill afford a reverse in property prices. These very markets were in growth mode during the global financial crisis when the established (old money) property markets went into actual decline. The RBA is now faced with a real estate conundrum as is the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) with reporting accuracy.

Christopher Joye wrote in Business Spectator this week “ABS overstates house price growth” – “the ABS’s median price numbers are being artificially inflated by the fading of first timers, who are being replaced by up graders buying more expensive homes.” Which is exactly what happened in Mosman last year as the market awoke from the GFC (from June onwards) as did the majority of top-end property markets. Joye wrote “While the ABS results will no doubt trigger the inevitable media excitement, the hard empirical fact is that Australian homes have been recording consistent capital growth of about 2 – 3 per cent per quarter since the start of 2009. It is comforting to note, however, that Australian house price growth has not outpaced the growth in household disposable incomes since around 2002.”

The building in the bottom left hand corner is the clue where Sydney Ports are located – a magnificent heritage building on Sydney Harbour identifying our rich history

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Tim Mooney Photography

Understandably the media ran amok (trying to get those rivers of gold running again) with the ABS figures – Australian house price index rose 5.6 per cent in the December quarter and the September quarter was upwardly revised to 4.4 per cent. ABS figures in the year to December identified that the house price index rose 13.6 per cent. The only problem is, that ABS figures are not considered as accurate as the other data aggregators.

So let’s take a look at Australian Property Monitors – Domain Property Data (our preferred data aggregator given that they list the actual property addresses for all the properties contained within this report) revealed for Mosman house sales in 2009 – 2008 – 2007 a comparative analysis where you can be the judge.

MOSMAN PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2009 to 1 DECEMBER 2009

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• Total number offered – 334
• Total number of sales recorded – 303. (31 still unrecorded)
• Total Value Sold – $668,966,377
• Public Auction – 62 properties to a value of $94,857,000
• Private Treaty – 241 properties to a value of $574,109,377
• Median Price – $2,000,000
• Average Price – $2,397,728
• Highest Sale $13,200,000 (RWM)

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MOSMAN PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2008 to 31 DECEMBER 2008

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• Total number offered – 360
• Total number of sales recorded – 287
• Total Value Sold – $774,865,612
• Public Auction – 65 properties to a value of $126,645,250
• Private Treaty – 222 properties to a value of $648,220,362
• Median Price – $2,275,000
• Average Price – $2,738,041
• Highest Sale $14,700,000 (RWM)

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MOSMAN PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2007 to 31 DECEMBER 2007

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• Total number offered – 456
• Total number of sales recorded – 412
• Total Value Sold – $1,182,372,720
• Public Auction – 132 properties to a value of $292,042,000
• Private Treaty – 280 properties to a value of $890,330,720
• Median Price – $2,300,000
• Average Price – $2,869,836
• Highest Sale $22,500,000 (new record price)

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Next week Cremorne House and Semi sales

SUMMARY MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES FROM 2007 to 2009

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It is interesting to extrapolate data post GFC. In 2007 the number of houses offered to the marketplace was 456 and in 2008 the number offered, fell -21 per cent to 360. In 2009, we witnessed market consolidation when 334 houses were offered at a – 7 per cent decline. One must not forget that in 2008 and 2009, scuttlebutt had property voyeurs believing that more than half the houses in Mosman were available for sale (this would equate to approximately 2,500 homes as against the recorded 360 and 334 respectively). Thank goodness one Mosman agency has the technology and desire to set the record straight.

Sold properties in 2007 came in at 412 and dropped -30 per cent in 2008 to 287 then in latter 2009 we saw an interesting turnaround where sales increased to 303 – a +5.5 per cent increase. The same patterns can be observed in ‘total value sold’ statistics when the total in 2007 was $1,182,372,720. This fell -34.5 per cent in 2008 to record $774,865,612. In 2009 we started to see the recovery when total sales were $668,966,377 (this represents a -14 per cent decline). We expect these figures to move back into the black in 2010.

THE AUCTION v PRIVATE TREATY DEBATE IN MOSMAN

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This is amazing data and before we move further, I must advise that every suburb reports different rates of success. The Eastern Suburbs have very strong auction markets and Mosman is one of the worst performing auction markets in Sydney.

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Mosman – 2007

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• Total sales – 412
• Auction – 132 (32 per cent)
• Private Treaty – 280 (68 per cent)

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Mosman – 2008

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• Total sales – 287
• Auction – 65 (23 per cent)
• Private Treaty – 222 (77 per cent)

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Mosman – 2009

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• Total sales – 303
• Auction – 62 (20 per cent)
• Private Treaty – 241 (80 per cent)

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Makes you wonder why so many Mosman agents keep recommending auction? I know that regular blogger Patricia will find these statistics of great interest.

So where to in 2010 and what will happen to Mosman house prices? I asked Steve Patrick, one of the most respected agents in Mosman what would happen and here is his response. “After a twenty (20) per cent fall in our market from the highs of 2007 to the end of 2009 (actual registered sales on several properties substantiate this figure), I believe the market bounced back somewhat in the order of five (5) to ten (10) per cent.) The last few months of 2009 confirmed this trend where house prices have now stabilised.

There is renewed confidence in the local property markets from buyers, albeit with caution, where I see our market moving steadily over the next six months with small (but more importantly), steady upward growth. Supply and demand will be the key factor going forward as it always has been. Rarely in my past twenty plus years working in Mosman, have I seen an over -supply, even when the GFC was at its historic peak.”

So there you have it! The Mosman online real estate bible has spoken. This weekend marks our first 2010 experience of buyer reaction/response at our upcoming open houses.

We trust that the data contained within this edition of Virtual Realty News will greatly assist you with your market determination. Rest assured, you will read it first with only one Mosman Agency!

See you on our blog where the Mosman debate continues.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Balmoral real estate, Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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5.02.10Robert Simeon14 Comments »

So let’s clarify a few points from an insider’s perspective. Property data is in all probability, ages away from being conclusive (after the result) and why, today does it still remains a dog’s breakfast?

Collectively none of these data collection institutions get it – they spread it and sell misinformation that is simply incomplete and many months away from accuracy.

The dilemma is quite simple. The property aggregators sell the information gathered from the agent, then continue to charge agencies to access its data … which is actually, the intellectual property of the agent. Until they get it right there is a very strong argument as to why agents should cease providing such data.

There are no better examples of such anomalies, when this week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced that house prices fell by minus 2.2 per cent in the March quarter 2009. Australian Property Monitors (Domain Property Data) reported that its research identified that house prices increased by 0.1 per cent in the March quarter 2009. Australian Property Monitors works from exchanged property information and it is no secret that in the current market condition, many vendors instruct agents that the sale price is confidential and not for publication.

Therefore, it can take months (depending on settlement terms) to collect an exacting position which I will identify with the data I have collected. For the record, RP Data – Rismark reported that house prices were up 0.1 per cent in the March quarter 2009. I remain unaware that we supply any data to RP Data – Rismark. I would also add that RWM receives no payment for supplying any property data.

Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2007 to 30 April 2007

• Total sales – 139
• Total value – $350,165,720
• Median price – $2,200,000
• Average price – $2,632,824
• Highest price – $10,200,000

Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2008 to 30 April 2008

• Total sales – 119
• Total value – $309,519,612
• Median price – $2,700,000
• Average price – $2,919,000
• Highest price – $8,500,000

Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2009 to 30 April 2009

• Total sales – 62
• Total value – $86,621,000
• Median price – $1,525,000
• Average price – $2,221,051
• Highest Price – $8,500,000

Source: Australian Property Monitors (Domain Property Data) owned by Fairfax Media

I would suggest that property voyeurs are much more interested in niche markets , for example, Mosman, as against “stew” markets where all the data ingredients are fed into the one murky pot.

As you would have noticed the Mosman House Sales – 1 January 2009 to 30 April 2009 look a tad sick when compared to 2008 and 2007. So when I add our confidential house sales to the data the Total Sales move up from 62 to 71, Total Value from $86,621,000 up to $126,026.000. For the record, RWM has sold the greatest volume in terms of number of sales and total value over this period. The Highest Price also changes where the first number starts with a one (in excess of $10,000,000). This additional $39,405,000 in house sales makes a noticeable change to the current figures. It’s just that now you are the first to know and the aggregators are left shaking their respective heads. This is further complicated by the fact that the vast majority of sales data provided today leaves out the sale price.

I had trouble containing my excitement this week when an old favourite, Bobby Dazzler Carr, made an unexpected appearance, spruiking further debate about the condition of his once beloved Fort Crumble. Obviously, his work time sheets must now be down after he moved from Fort Crumble over to the Millionaires Factory.

The audacity of the argument that the Dazzler was the architect (or should that be builder) whilst presiding over the State of Decay. Whilst stopping short of revealing just exactly where all those “rivers of gold”, disappeared to, on the back of the financial floods from GST, stamp duty and poker machines taxes proved to be of little consequence. It was the system, not, the government the Dazzler declared (to those that listened – not many I think).

Of course it was , how silly of us to assume anything else as Fort Crumble now stumbles down an estimated $2 billion budget deficit by June 30. Just as interesting, south of the border, Victoria’s Fort Fabulous is in surplus and offering tax cuts because Jeff Kennett did what our very own Dazzler couldn’t deliver, while Kennett financially and politically, renovated his Fortress.

Tensions between Ruddy Fantastic and the latest landlord over at Fort Crumble are not that good to say the least. Ruddy Fantastic is presently conducting a three day jobs summit in Western Sydney, and no members from Fort Crumble were asked to attend – another clue?

As quick as a flash, Fort Crumble jumped the land tax rate for property valued above $2.250 million from 1.6 per cent to 2 per cent. The irony is that these properties are already (after tax) in negative rental return, so the landlords then increase their negative gearing tax deductions, which Ruddy Fantastic then picks up.

Will negative gearing be abolished in next week’s Fudge-it?

One should also not forget, that Fort Crumble is reportedly crunching the numbers to introduce its latest annual land tax grab which apparently applies to every property owner within the State of Decay. If true, this would be political suicide – but then again, when you have a $2 billion budget deficit Fort Crumble is now in critical decision or, should that be condition? Ruddy Fantastic would be thankful he resides north of Fort Crumble’s moat.

Next week’s Federal “Fudge It “ will be riveting, more particularly if the budget deficit blows in (or should that read out) around $70 billion as quite a few are predicting.

With elected politicians in overdrive on their Twitter accounts all will be revealed on next week’s Tweet’s – if you are not on Twitter, you don’t know what you are missing out on. Have a look http://twitter.com/ Compelling viewing indeed – love Twitter.

We are very happy to announce that each week we will showcase one of Tim Mooney’s aerial masterpieces in Virtual Realty News. Tim has been a subscriber for many years. After prolonged negotiations – we now can bring you these amazing shots exclusively. Tim has actually spent more time in the air than Superman – if you click on this week’s aerial photograph you will be taken to Tim’s website.

Cheers and Tweet’s ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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8.05.09Robert Simeon7 Comments »

For many, the new economic lingo has become rather disheartening. GD2 means Great Depression 2 and this week technical recession raced to number one spot on the economic chart with a bullet. It can’t be dodged nor can we hide from it and no need to look for the “smoking gun”. All eyes will now be taking aim at Fort Fumble (Federal government). After all Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan keep telling us that they will lead Australia out of ‘technical recession’.

Australia’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.5 per cent in the December quarter so the term, technical recession, comes as no great surprise. We are already in “Club Recession” with record memberships. Australia’s first negative quarter in eight years so now we have to wait another three months to confirm what we already know – we are in a recession – technically speaking.

First, Fort Fumble delivered its December “cash splash” which most believe was designed to buy votes for an early election. The ugly side of all recessions is unemployment where again all eyes will be on Fort Fumble to see what business splash initiatives they employ (no pun intended). It is well documented that I believe Pay Roll tax consistently kills both business and employment growth.

Over to Fort Crumble (NSW government) where NSW opposition leader Barry O’Farrell called on a NSW business stimulus package where Pay Roll Tax should be cut by 15 per cent (it needs to be much greater than that Bazza.) Premier of Fort Fumble Nathan Rees responded “We’ll do it in a fiscally responsible way, not a lazy way, not in an ill-disciplined way.” WOW – Australia’s most incompetent government quotes the words “responsible”, “lazy” and “ill-disciplined” in the one sentence! Moral dilemma? Absolutely not – Fort Fumble has its finger prints all over this week’s GDP figures and although they dominate, they are not alone.

I read this week “Wall Street Banking Explained”.

“Young Chuck moved to Texas and bought a donkey from a farmer for $100.00 and the farmer agreed to deliver the donkey the next day. The next day the farmer drove up and said, ‘Sorry Chuck, but I have some bad news, the donkey died.’

Chuck replied, “Well, then give me my money back.” The farmer said, ‘Can’t do that. I went and spent it already.’ Chuck said, ‘OK then just bring me the dead donkey.’ The farmer asked, ‘What ya gonna do with a dead donkey? Chuck said, ‘I’m going to raffle him off.’ The farmer said, ‘You can’t raffle a dead donkey!’

Chuck said, ‘Sure I can. Watch me. I just won’t tell anybody that he’s dead.’
A month later, the farmer met up with Chuck and asked. ‘What happened with the dead donkey?’ Chuck said, ‘I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at $2.00 each and made a profit of $898.00.’ The farmer said, ‘Didn’t anyone complain?’

Chuck said, ‘Just the guy who won. So I gave him his two dollars back.’

Michael West wrote this week on www.smh.com.au an article titled “Vultures go hungry” (think of the donkey).

“Pacific Brands is a classic of the golden era of private equity.

Bought out of the floundering conglomerate Pacific Dunlop for $730 million in 2001, its new private equity owner ripped out $100 million in cash, geared it up with mountains of debt and sold it back to the stock market in early 2004. They banked $1 billion from the public float.

It was a slick operation all round. The privateers from CVC Asia Pacific and Catalyst Investment Managers, and their investment bankers from Macquarie Bank, who teed – up the float, slapped together an impressive board of directors. Fat with other peoples’ money to spend, the big super funds bought it with ears pinned back, even though it was loaded with debt to the tune of 3.5 times its earnings (before interest, tax and so on).

The success of the deal was not down to paper shuffling alone. The privateers had turned the manufacturer around. They fixed the supply side. They breathed new life into the brands. Blue collar marquees such as Chesty Bonds and King Gee turned bogan to chic.” The article goes on and well worth reading on the SMH website so search Vultures go hungry www.smh.com.au

To the Mosman real estate market where we are happy to report that over the last five (very difficult) months Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) has successfully sold just over $80,000,000 worth of houses (that’s one house sold every seven days). A clue is that our subscriber sales to ‘Virtual Realty News’ have jumped to $827,158,019. According to Domain Property Data this is the highest recorded volume of sales recorded by any Mosman agency.

Congratulations to Mosman’s most popular property portal www.domain.com.au that this week released a very savvy new look with a much more advanced search criteria. A brilliant new interface – combined with excellent search functionality. Great to see an online business actually investing in and developing greater client online experiences for property market voyeurs. This week we acquired from Fairfax Digital the property gallery for Balmoral so we now exclusively own Mosman and Balmoral property galleries – for the benefit of our vendors.

Today, websites are graded. Go to http://website.grader.com to see how they are graded on marketing effectiveness. The score incorporates website traffic, search engine optimisation, social popularity and other technical factors. Compare websites – I have and the only website that beat us was www.domain.com.au (that being in the real estate category).

Judge yourself – RWM scored 87/100 which has a lot to do with our recession sales results.

Oops – I’m being technical again! However we are in a technical recession! A technicality that will identify Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan and Julia Gillard as fake or famous. Now they will have to ‘walk the walk’ not talk the talk’. At the last Federal election they boasted best practice abilities so after this week’s announcements they now have to prove it – Australia is now in recession!

Yesterday’s release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics identified that in January, new building approvals fell 3.7 per cent – the Rudd/Swan cash stimulus (cash splash) failed.

Over to you Kevin – you told us that you are the man to lead this great country. History will now judge you and your elected government as being either fake or famous.

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

Cheers ^__^

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6.03.09Robert SimeonNo Comments »