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Prime Minister Julia Gillard keeps reminding Australians that our economy is the envy of the world – which in all probability explains why Labor’s popularity drops to a record low. Newspoll reported this week that Labor’s primary vote had dropped from thirty per cent to twenty seven per cent (a survey compiled prior to the carbon tax release announcement). If the next Newspoll (due in two week’s time) identifies a further decline, it will be all over for the ‘red rover’.

Economically, Australians are concerned about just the one thing – household debt. A carbon tax for the price of a broken promise it is now boom or bust for ALP’s ideology. Australia is not buying the tax for clean air argument, as it has been acknowledged that Australia’s carbon tax will have next to no effect .Julia Gillard’s carbon price promise when she advised Australia “I rule out a carbon tax” has the prime minister struggling to acknowledge why a promise is not a promise. Of course, if it was not a tax, the prime minister would find Australian sentiment much more forgiving – the old Aussie vernacular liar, liar pants (hair) on fire has resonated throughout the entire debate. Rate rises, global uncertainty, carbon push consumer sentiment to two – year low so what is the common denominator? That would be carbon chaos in Canberra!

Then we have the elephant in the room, otherwise known as the budget deficit which continues to blow out – hence carbon tax on surplus ‘not dramatically significant’. Another broken promise given Treasurer Wayne Swan now admits that the climate change package will decrease the projected budget surplus despite his promise that the package would be revenue neutral. No doubt the Treasurer would have been pleased to see that the Building the Education Revolution waste blows out to $1.1bn which is down from the Pink Batts fiasco which lost $2.45bn. That’s $3.55bn lost due to mismanagement, and to be repaid by taxpayers.

BUY PRINT

Julia Gillard needs a new policy distraction given sixty per cent of Australians don’t want a carbon tax.  Fort Fumble has positioned itself between a rock and a very hard place. Having just back flipped on waiting hours at hospitals, the plan for a federal takeover became so infected that Nicola Roxon gives in to states on health. Then you have stupidity and cattle export revolt cloud Julia Gillard’s clear air where the public consensus is that plenty of pain for very little gain in cattle export fight. The problem with Fort Fumble is that there are too many chiefs and not enough Indians. Australians are smart enough to see that reckless decisions are frustrating and damaging to consumer confidence – Gillard rejects early election call. Prime Ministers are very much like rugby league coaches.  If the team’s not winning, the coach gets the sack – Gillard determined to avoid the axe.

The Australian – Order Bill Leak’s Print

Rent growth slowing in capital cities comes as little surprise.   With households totally focussed on debt, rental debt is no exception. The supply of housing in Australia today, remains a complete debacle housing supply – Melbourne good news, Sydney bad news. Only 141,618 new dwellings were built in NSW between 2006 and 2010 although the number of households increased by 159,388. What part of this do you think that our governments don’t understand? In 2010 NSW built just 27,655 new dwellings where Victoria built a record 50,700 dwellings (almost twice that of NSW). An amazing statistic when, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, NSW has a population of 7,272,200 and Victoria 5,585,600. Little wonder that NSW house prices falls smallest: survey and a carbon tax raises the cost of construction of a new home by approximately five to ten per cent! Julia, tell us we’re dreaming – a carbon tax on coal hits NSW coffers hard.

All quiet on the eastern front – You can say that again. Mosman is an interesting study, when in winter, the market all but closes down.  Mosman residents  prefer to travel – hence this week’s amazing ‘for sale’ statistics. Who would have believed there would be just eighty houses for sale Domain Property Data. I have never before seen a tighter Mosman market.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 83
• Number of houses on the market this week – 80
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 99
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 92

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 16
• Number of houses on the market this week –  16
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 34
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 31

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 7
• Number of houses on the market this week – 7
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 62
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 65

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

It’s just getting too cold for me, so I am taking a break for a few weeks. Andrew, Steve and Rich will be providing their collective pearls of property wisdom.

On that note, I would like to thank our first female prime minister for announcing her carbon tax during the school holidays, when so many Australians are away. I do ask the Labor caucus to delay the announcement of Australia’s next prime minister, until I return to Virtual Realty News.

Cheers ^__^

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15.07.11Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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The anniversary of Kevin Rudd’s political assassination last week, was far reaching. I was fascinated to read – “the final nail – Graham Richardson reveals coup but says Julia Gillard faces ‘slaughter’ in The Daily Telegraph. I doubt even Graham Richardson would have believed that since his announcement the Gillard’s government’s handling of the Australian economy has gone from bad to atrocious.

I wrote last week in Virtual Realty News that my Canberra mole advised me that the prime minister has just six months to prove her credibility before a ‘position vacant’ sign appeared at The Lodge. I was not surprised to read this week that key Labor backbenchers are privately warning Julia Gillard that she has six months to turn around the government’s performance. How do you turn around a tsunami? The prime minister is collapsing under the pressure – Gillard slips up on carbon compensation. Then Julia Gillard’s goose is looking cooked; so back to square one I didn’t mean to mislead on carbon: PM.

Then Senate report urges scrapping of MRRT – the prime minister’s personal negotiation to resolve the ugly miners’ anti – government advertising campaign which combined to bring Kevin Rudd down. Julia Gillard’s government is now spiralling out of control – just look at the live cattle debacle where again the Gillard government capitulated to the Greens and where we now see a $30m hardship package for cattle industry. There are approximately 700 abattoirs in Indonesia and the ABC conveniently stumbles upon a few who are committing atrocious acts on Australian live stock.

A $320 million a year Australian business shut down overnight – now we see a $30 million hardship package which justifiably will be followed up with an enormous class action against the Gillard government – another huge taxpayer cost. PM, Rudd take on live cattle crisis this is hilarious given they can’t stand one another. Senator Ludwig who is hopelessly handling this debacle gave Indonesian officials the first Australian government draft of animal welfare standards in – English. Which they could not read so he later had to follow up with an Indonesian translation! DOH!

BUY PRINT

Tim shot this aerial last week – the vacant area to the upper right is what used to be known as The Block

Three of Australia’s top business leaders are calling for an early election, saying the Gillard government is causing economic uncertainty. John Symond, Gerry Harvey and John Singleton, revealed a consistent belief that constant negativity surrounding the government is weighing down on consumer confidence. The vast majority of Australians now want an early election: September 2011. If you live in NSW – this economy is consistently going backwards.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) report has Sydney’s population at 4,575,532 and climbing, yet NSW infrastructure remains in the doldrums. NSW keeps falling behind the other states and territories growing just 1.2 per cent last year to 7,272,200. Last year 94,668 NSW residents decided to relocate to another state while 83,425 moved into NSW – a net loss of 11,243.

Quite amazing that in this day and age NSW  now finds itself with more departures than arrivals.

The tools have been laid down as construction in Sydney is well behind the other Australian cities – it is becoming quite clear that we no longer have a culture for construction. The ABS reports that last year 27,655 houses and apartments were constructed in NSW. Victoria recorded 50,700 (nearly double NSW), 31,611 in Queensland and 22,315 in Western Australia. To make matters worse just 16,118 new houses were built in 2010, Victoria led the way again with 37,218, Queensland with 21,764 and Western Australia constructed 18,442. Sydney has the lowest vacancy rate for rental properties in Australia at just one per cent – the general rule of thumb is that this figure should sit between two and three percent. The rental vacancy rate will continue to decline forcing rents up further given just 19,111 dwellings were approved for construction in Sydney between July 2010 and May 2011. Spiralling rents are forcing families further west as they seek rental relief affordability.

Following up – on last week’s Mosman housing six month report for 2011 – here are the apartment statistics.

Data provided from Domain Property Data and RWM Research this data is from 1 January to 23 June for 2007/2010 and 2011.

Mosman – Total Number of Apartments for Sale

• 2007 – 357
• 2010 – 258 (a 27 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)
• 2011 – 232 (a 35 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)

Total Mosman Apartments Sold

• 2007 – 338
• 2010 – 243 (a 28 per cent reduction)
• 2011 – 215 (a 36 per cent reduction)

RWM Research: The Mosman housing market is actually defying the trending seen in other Sydney suburbs given the available volume of houses for sale is actually contracting.

Total Value of Mosman Apartments Sold

• 2007 – $274,113,101
• 2010 – $215,035,892
• 2011 – $151,475,500*

*denotes that 27 apartments have entered a zero sale price – the Total Value for 2011 is still months away from final determination.

Adjusted Mosman Auction Clearance Rate

• 2007 – 34 per cent
• 2010 – 39 per cent
• 2011 – 43 per cent

RWM Research: Mosman has one of the lowest if not the lowest auction clearance rates in Sydney.

Mosman Median Apartment Price

• 2007 – $520,000
• 2010 – $650,000
• 2011 – $610,500*

*denotes that 27 apartments have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Median Apartment Price is still months away from final determination.

Mosman Average Apartment Price

• 2007 – $820,697
• 2010 – $918,956
• 2011 – $805,720*

*denotes that 27 apartments have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Average Apartment Price is still months away from final determination.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 97
• Number of houses on the market this week – 87
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 99
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 97

RWM Research: The total number of houses for sale dropped below 100 last week and this week it has fallen below ninety – historic low supplies.

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week –  15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 33
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 33

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 9
• Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 65
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 67

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

I will leave you this week with a Letter to the Editor that appeared in The Daily Telegraph – “If the Gillard – led Labor Party had won the last election with enough seats to govern in its own right without the support of Bob Brown and the independents, we would not be discussing a carbon tax or poker machine reform. We are being governed by a group of self – interested people who are not listening to the needs of the Australian people.”

Kevin Rudd may have lost his way – Julia Gillard has lost Australia.

When the Gillard government finally announces its price on carbon: Australian industries will commence a relentless anti – Gillard government advertising campaign that will take the prime minister to historical lows in the polls.

Australia won’t get a carbon tax – it will have an election. When Tony Abbott suggested a plebiscite it was more a case of plant a seed, add water – and watch it grow.

Cheers ^__^

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1.07.11Robert Simeon7 Comments »

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Little wonder Julia Gillard’s Fort Fumble finds itself in such a dire position on her first anniversary as Prime Minister. No candle or cake cutting (sigh of relief), even worse no partying: Julia Gillard reveals – why I knifed Kevin Rudd. Twelve months on, Julia Gillard and Labor slump to new lows which would explain why, constant internal bickering is the real explanation it’s not personal, it’s  policy – why Labor is flatlining.

When I read Julia Gillard outlines her plans for survival I could not help but notice her quote about the reasoning behind Kevin Rudd’s knifing “it became clear to me in the crucible of those days that the Labor caucus wanted a different path and a different leader.” A contradiction of terms (maybe) as Julia Gillard tells caucus to be patient when the Fairfax – Nielsen poll revealed that Kevin Rudd preferred as ALP leader: poll. The party faithful (tongue in cheek) found very few positives for Gillard in horror poll.

Alas, a year on, Rudd would do things differently which was met with a somewhat tinge of sobriety as the faceless waiters dispensed caucus refreshments consisting only of lemon, lime and bitterness? No thanks, Kevin. Party politics suggests absolutely no renaissance period for their reborn leader unworkable. Expectations of many more lemon twists: given leadership talk is killing Labor, says Peter Beattie, as party rallies behind PM.

BUY PRINT

This is a one – off aerial capture of Royal Sydney Golf Club at Rose Bay. The new swimming pool is ready for summer although I’m not sure what they’re going to construct in the vacant area below it?

Our invaluable Virtual Realty News subscriber mail suggests Julia Gillard has six months to turn the polls around given the Labor Party finds itself at odds (not great ones either). Betstar have Julia Gillard at $1.65 to lead Labor to the next election with Assistant Treasurer Bill (shortening) Shorten next at $4, Climate Change pioneer Greg Combat (I meant Combet) and Kevin (scissor hands) Rudd at $7.50. Little wonder consumer confidence levels are in rapid decline, or should that be a rapid response to economic concerns?

The rise and rise of the Aussie dollar has appreciated 21.82 per cent during the last twelve months which explains why the expats have all but withdrawn from our real estate markets. Manufacturing and retail have been hit much harder which then resonates through to consumer confidence in the Australian economy. The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 2.6 per cent in June from 103.9 per cent in May to 101.2 in June. Trouble looms on the home front which is a natural progression moving on from consumer confidence declines – what remains to be seen is which real estate markets will remain in a holding pattern and those that will endure declines.

Winter chills price growth amid subdued auction sales reveals that in May 2011, the average discount rate for properties was 6.4 per cent, compared to 5.7 per cent in May last year. There is a twenty five per cent increase in the number of properties for sale in Sydney as compared to this time last year – I will get to Mosman shortly. During the first four months of 2011 only 8,271 home loans were approved for first – home buyers in NSW. This was the lowest number of loans recorded for the same period since 2004 and is sixty per cent less than the 20,982 first – home buyers recorded in the first four months of 2009.

Jonathan Chancellor’s Property Observer wrote this week home buyers and investors more hawkish than economists – 83 per cent of consumers expect rate rises over the next year, but that’s down on the 91 per cent recorded in February, according to the latest Westpac Melbourne index of Consumer Sentiment. This explains why the Reserve Bank plays a game of wait and see as household finances dive to the worst in at least 10 years.

I love all this data as it allows Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) to sell our market via our online technologies. If you are a purchaser (not just in Mosman) you are correct in thinking a property crash is gaining momentum. If a real estate agency does not use a blog in this modern era it simply identifies how behind the time their business model is – given it is imperative that our demographic market remains educated about what is actually happening in our Mosman market. The real reason why real estate agents don’t have blogs is that they can talk but struggle with writing – criteria just as important given selling is not 100 per cent based on speech.

Margie Blok wrote in Title Deeds last week – Mosman Millions and Modern marvel sold which prompted me to do a Mosman house sales analysis from 1 January to 23 June 2011. To make matters interesting I extrapolated data for the same period in 2010 and 2007 which was prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Remember there is a twenty five per cent increase in properties for sale in Sydney presently – as compared to this time last year.

Data provided from Domain Property Data and RWM Research this data is from 1 January to 23 June for 2007/2010 and 2011.

Mosman – Total Number of Houses for Sale

• 2007 – 232
• 2010 – 208 (a 10 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)
• 2011 – 161 (a 31 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)

Total Mosman Houses Sold

• 2007 – 211
• 2010 – 183 (a 13 per cent reduction)
• 2011 – 118 (a 44 per cent reduction)

RWM Research: The Mosman housing market is actually defying the trending seen in other Sydney suburbs given the available volume of houses for sale is actually contracting.

Total Value of Mosman Houses Sold

• 2007 – $565,505,720
• 2010 – $464,616,550
• 2011 – $198,296,000*

*denotes that 49 houses have entered a zero sale price – the Total Value for 2011 is still months away from final determination.

Adjusted Mosman Auction Clearance Rate

• 2007 – 40 per cent
• 2010 – 35 per cent
• 2011 – 32 per cent

RWM Research: Mosman has one of the lowest if not the lowest auction clearance rates in Sydney.

Mosman Median House Price

• 2007 – $2,260,000
• 2010 – $2,200,000
• 2011 – $2,100,000*

*denotes that 49 houses have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Median House Price is still months away from final determination.

Mosman Average House Price

• 2007 – $2,680,121
• 2010 – $2,685,644
• 2011 – 2,792,901*

*denotes that 49 houses have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Average House Price is still months away from final determination.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 104
• Number of houses on the market this week – 97
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 99
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 99

RWM Research: The total number of houses for sale dropped below 100 this week which would have to be the lowest number available in living memory

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week –  17
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 38
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 33

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 12
• Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 63
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 65

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Now you have the most exacting explanation of where the Mosman housing market currently sits.

It is precisely twelve months to the day that ‘The Emperor’ Kevin Rudd felt the long blade of Julia Gillard’s knife given “he had lost his way”. The Emperor even had to cancel his one year anniversary which was brilliantly captured by Bill Leak this week in The Australian.

The Australian- order Bill Leak’s print

Cheers ^__^

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24.06.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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Welcome to your Virtual Realty News tenth Federal Budget edition – although yet again we were not invited to Canberra for the lock – down (funny that). The budget announcement conveniently blames the past and paints a rosy future. An abundance of spin on the positives, yet no mention of the negatives and sadly, there are plenty. Here is my reasoning which goes back to the election and the Rudd/Gillard government’s four budgets which get worse. The Government completely ignored Australia’s slowing growth, rising dollar to dominate budget preferring to take a totally opposite view.

The biggest problem facing the Rudd/Gillard Government is that it panicked during the global financial crisis, believing that the Australian economy was terminally ill. Less than twelve months later in 2009, Australia experienced just the one quarter of negative growth. The debt had to be paid back much sooner than expected so having a budget in surplus is not something that Labor has experienced. Simply put: the Government spent too much and is now hopelessly struggling to pay back its (our) debt.  Wayne Swan can’t say which year Labor achieved its last surplus. Wayne the answer is 1989 – 90. Of course the summer of disasters hit the budget, says PM although the Government failed to list the billions lost in waste schemes such as Pink Batts and BER blow outs in the budget.  Past – Treasurer Peter Costello wrote  An economy to die for – surely Swan could manage a better budget? “The budget has no coherence, no strategy, and no conviction.”

BUY PRINT

In his 2010 Federal Budget, Wayne Swan predicted a $40.8 billion deficit where in 2011 it came in at $49.4 billion. In 362 day’s time, Swan now has to deliver a budget deficit of $26.8 billion otherwise no chance of returning to a budget surplus in 2012/13. To achieve this Swan is banking on no more natural disasters here or abroad, the Australian dollar not getting any higher, a return of strong tax receipts by individuals and companies and a stronger real estate market. Also, reign in the out of control spending on asylum seekers and of course delivering that other debacle called a Carbon Tax.

As Alan Kohler wrote Budget 2011: Australia on a wing and a prayer “In other words, it’s a wing and a prayer budget – keep spending, let the deficit blow out, and predict with a straight face that the commodities boom will bail us out eventually.” Aside from that blunt assessment interest rates will have to rise, warns Reserve Bank of Australia as confidence in economy falling as Wayne Swan claims Government can make ‘substantial savings’. Although already, we are seeing Australian’s struggling to save due to the daily increase in cost of living.

Source: The Australian- order Bill Leak’s print

Let’s have a peek at the Sydney property market to see what’s happening and why it is being echoed across Australia. Budget and rates rise flagged to pinch households although we should be thankful that Wayne Swan’s budget left Negative Gearing alone. The latest house price data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirms that most city markets slowed in the March quarter. Prices are falling – some suburbs still hot where Sydney house prices fell by 1.8 per cent during the quarter and the annual increase now sits at 0.8 per cent. It is most obvious that the Gillard Government simply does not understand housing affordability which is why it was completely ignored in the Federal Budget.

Forget the Gillard Government’s obsession with mining tax revenues, the largest employer in Australia remains the real estate industry. When the property markets are moving forward so is the economy so the Auction action graph clearly indicates just how much the property markets are contracting (not a bad thing for property prices). Nevertheless, a terminally ill indication for the economy given tax revenues for the State Government are collapsing.  Total value revenue was $430.9 million same time last year and $162.4 million last week.

Australia has waved goodbye to the Global Financial Crisis yet the latest data from Australian Property Monitors (APM) indicates that property prices are in decline across Australia.

SYDNEY MARCH QUARTER RESULTS

Source: Domain Property Monitors

• House prices fell in the March quarter by -0.4 per cent after recording growth of +1.1 per cent in the December quarter.
• Unit prices fell by -0.7 per cent over the quarter following a flat result in December.
• Sydney median house price is now $643,713 and the median price is $448,585
• Annual house price growth sits at +2.0 per cent and unit price growth is at +2.1 per cent, both trending downwards.

BUDGET OVERVIEW

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Wayne Swan admits China is key to returning to surplus a disgraceful summation directed at the ability of Australian business that is not mining reliant. Granted, a record $76 billion worth of spending in the booming resources sector where these decisions have absolutely no calibration with Wayne Swan policy. Wayne Swan is hedged into the Australian dollar remaining steady although Aussie dollar could hit $US1.70 by 2014, predicts money guru Savvas Savouri.

Households are being hit and when the Aussie dollar climbs they will all go to online shopping where they don’t have to pay GST on their overseas purchases.  Our retail market will then collapse Myer, DJ’s see glimmer of hope in retail sales. The Government failed to address in the Federal Budget – tax online shoppers, save jobs. Those with mortgages should be budgeting for a rate rise or two, three and four. Directors cool on carbon price and broadband which are neck and neck in the dumber and dumber policy announcements in Australia’s political history.

Finally, electricians fear set-box installation flop think Pink Batts. When it was announced that Australia was moving to digital, the Aussie dollar was at $0.68 cents.  It is now coasting near US$1.08 cents. Television prices have halved and Julia Gillard just acquired $300 million plus of useless set – top boxes that could never be sold given the Aussie dollar’s rise and rise.

Can Wayne Swan reduce the deficit to $26.8 billion by the next Federal Budget?  Of course he can (as sure as deposed Premier of NSW, Kristina Keneally, will be the next NSW Premier!!!   Work experience does not always apply to elected politicians, especially when it comes to understanding economics.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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13.05.11Robert Simeon7 Comments »

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Forget the last federal election that resulted in a hopeless hung parliament – the new rule is incarcerated in people speak – hallelujah as “united we stand – divided we fall.” Despite what politicians may say with bated breath – polls threaten their very own livelihoods as much as they threaten our right to agree or disagree. Left field policy announcements within the Rudd/Gillard regime has been met with aggression that resurrected – if you don’t like it run an advertising campaign first initiated by the mining companies.

Politicians want to be in the limelight – not a back drop hidden within a party struggling for that voter point of difference whilst in Opposition. It is interesting to note that parties in Opposition burn leaders with regularity given when Bob Hawke was Prime Minister (1983 – 1991) the Liberal Party went through four Opposition leaders, Andrew Peacock (1983 – 1985), John Howard (1985 – 1989), Andrew Peacock (1989 – 1990) and John Hewson (1990 – 1994). When Paul Keating was elected Prime Minister (1991 – 1996) he saw off John Hewson (1990 – 1994), Alexander Downer (1994 – 1995) then lost the 1996 Federal election to John Howard (1995 – 2007). Federal Labor then waved good bye to Kim Beazley (1996 – 2001), Simon Crean (2001 – 2003), Mark Latham (2003 – 2005) and Kim Beazley (2005 – 2006). Enter Kevin Rudd (2006 – 2010), Brendan Nelson (2007 – 2008), Malcolm Turnbull (2008 – 2009) then Tony Abbott (2009 – present).

Julia Gillard removed Kevin Rudd on (24 June 2010 – present) which is the first example of an elected Government burning a Prime Minister. Now we see (Labor worries as PM struggles) and even stranger Labor hits a 15 – year low but Rudd wins where the HeraldNielsen poll now has Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull as the preferred party leaders! Since 1983, Australia has had five Prime Ministers and twelve Opposition leaders with Kevin Rudd becoming just the second Prime Minister to serve just the one term and Julia Gillard fast tracking becoming the third. Federal Labor has now had two Prime Ministers in four years and NSW Labor had four Premiers in four years – a pattern forming?

BUY PRINT

Let’s face it the Carbon Tax is a monumental debacle of mammoth proportion with many questions being asked – well Prime Minister, let’s see if you can hold your nerve. As key union puts Julia Gillard on notice over carbon tax which means that Julia Gillard’s carbon hopes up in smoke. Resembling an all in – brawl as food giants join war on carbon tax a great read on Carbon Tax is learning the hard way: Australia’s policies to reduce emissions – Grattan Institute. Throw in another major problem in that the Gillard Government is now fighting a bewildering array of battles, as it fashions a budget bound to open more fronts – budget blues.

Chris Richardson, Deloitte Access Economics: “The Global Financial Crisis was not a drama for our economy. It was and is still a drama for the Budget.”

Chris Uhlmann: The last forecast said this year’s deficit would land at $41 billion in the red. Next year the projected budget is 412 billion. But slowing growth and falling company and income tax receipts now mean those numbers are too rosy. With the Budget just weeks away, this year’s deficit will be worse.”

Chris Richardson: “Looking at the budget as a rolling 12 – month total, at its worst, it was a little bit over $60 billion in deficit. But that’s more or less where it still is.”

Which would then explain why Wayne Swan leaked figures showing $13bn slump in growth: Hockey. Back to that white board and “Building a better Australia.” As Julia told us!

Source: The Australian

Which brings us to the NBN Co debacle given Fort Fumble has temporarily terminated connections as business chief slams NBN rollout describing it as a squandered opportunity and one of the worst examples of pork – barrelling.  This should not come as any great surprise given Fort Fumble spent $2.5 billion on roof batts, $16 billion on the overpriced BER and spending $50 billion on the NBN Co – without a cost benefit study. Given it has now been halted due to blow – outs Fort Fumble is now considering a … wait for it…. NBN may accept greater risk which translates into greater debt and yet another debacle which would explain why it is currently suspended.

RBA minutes point to rates staying put which means that reading between the lines the cash rate won’t be moved until sometime within the December Quarter 2011. The months of October, November and December will see some upward movement(s) of the official cash rate. With the Federal fudge (oops I meant to say budget) to be released early next month it appears that Wayne Swan is about to announce that forecast growth will drop significantly from the earlier projected figure of 3.25 per cent to 2.25 per cent. That then would equate to a one per cent drop in Australia’s $1.3 trillion economy so the black hole is then $13 billion. Yes the Federal budget will be ugly but not as ugly as the manner in which Fort Fumble has handled Australia’s finances.

NSW ranks bottom in economic momentum as costs eat into savings, and sense of security which means that Barry O’Farrell has plenty of work ahead to rejuvenate and renovate the previous number one economy in Australia. A huge announcement this week: Barry O’Farrell’s pledge to put lid on power which is in stark contrast to the now collapsed Fort Crumble who pinched $15 billion in dividends and put nothing back into electricity – dividend freeze a crucial step.

New home loan numbers plunge: John Symond as residential property prices peaked in 2010 and will continue cooling in the next six months as big mortgage brokers report a 20 per cent drop in loan numbers. It’s too early to extrapolate the January – March 2010 figures against the January – March 2011 sales results – we will do that in a few week’s time as they are still being processed.

In the meantime here are the Mosman house sales and total value for the last ten years from 2000 – 2010 which is a Mosman first and Virtual Realty News exclusive.

Source: Domain Property Data

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES AND TOTAL VALUE – 2000 TO 2010

• 2000 – House Sales: 336 Total Value Of All House Sales: $464,002,395
• 2001 – House Sales: 413 Total Value Of All House Sales: $709,864,118
• 2002 – House Sales: 358 Total Value Of All House Sales: $723,591,555
• 2003 – House Sales: 359 Total Value Of All House Sales: $829,527,432
• 2004 – House Sales: 300 Total Value Of All House Sales: $677,939,257
• 2005 – House Sales: 293 Total Value Of All House Sales: $692,071,000
• 2006 – House Sales: 380 Total Value Of All House Sales: $947,918,130
• 2007 – House Sales: 395 Total Value Of All House Sales: $1,153,099,720
• 2008 – House Sales: 255 Total Value Of All House Sales: $867,925,612
• 2009 – House Sales: 299 Total Value Of All House Sales: $789,424,751
• 2010 – House Sales: 333 Total Value Of All House Sales: $870,181,155

RWM Research: In 2007 Mosman broke the $1 Billion mark for the total value of houses sold in a calendar year with 395 houses selling – also the record.

Next week, we will look at the average and median prices for Mosman houses from 2000 – 2010. As well as scrutinise the upcoming Federal Budget. ‘Wayne’s World’ is suffering as he has lost those ‘rivers of gold’ where many point a finger at his self-created ‘rivers of waste’.

Have a fantastic and safe Easter – savour and share our ANZAC spirit.

“Lest We Forget”

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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21.04.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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Had to agree with Mungo MacCullum when he wrote this week – Has Australian politics ever been more depressing? To such an extent that even Rudd, Turnbull overshadow leaders in poll. Add a NSW state election next week where Premier Bambi is learning fast  that in NSW they like her, but don’t rate her. At least Barry O’Farrell announced “if we don’t deliver, kick us out” which is no doubt a stinging rebuke at Julia Gillard who prefers to pursue policies of lies and deception.

The key is consistency, Labor is lacking where the only thing consistent with our Prime Minister is an inability to lead. Carbon Tax, border protection, health, mining tax announcements all remain  atop of the in–tray, none of which are resolved. Throw in pokies cost – benefit study could make reforms tougher, threatening Labor alliance with Wilkie. Now the Prime Minister is taking on 7,500 pubs and clubs in Australia to appease one “Green vote”. The odds against Australia’s 27^th Prime Minister are shortening. Clue?

When Newspoll results are revealed next Tuesday, the “faceless men” will again come to the fore (somewhat identical to our Australian economy). A carbon tax really needs a mandate to become a reality.  Should Julia Gillard be removed (it could happen) Australia’s most unpopular government ever, has a – rocky road ahead. We all know that the carbon tax is hurting Labor: Nathan Rees as Gillard running out of options on carbon tax as attempts to sell it fail. What will be interesting is to see if tax payer monies are spent advertising her new tax when no monies were available to alleviate a flood tax?

BUY PRINT

Wolseley Road is the world’s ninth priciest in the world which equates to approximately $20,500 a square metre value based on recent comparable sales.  Australia’s number one address for residential real estate?   I still can’t go by Balmoral as my preferred location.

Emissions charges ‘to skyrocket’ by between 118 per cent to 315 per cent when the carbon tax converts to an emissions trading scheme, according to new modelling conducted for the resources industry. In an extraordinary back–flip, Julia Gillard turns on Greens in carbon tax debate which suggests our prime minister has become delusional and is drowning in her deceptions .

Source: The Australian

Interesting to note that property hits new records which further explains why house prices ‘too high for cops, teachers which is easily explained by governments ignoring transport infrastructure where Sydney has the most million – dollar properties.

So let’s look at Mosman house price movement from 1999 to 2010. This week we look at price movements from 1999 to 2004. Next week 2005 to 2010 where market movements are staggering, considering  that all was rosy until the global financial crisis.

1999 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 1
• Total Value – $6,400,000
• Average Price – $6,400,000
• Highest Price – $6,400,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research observations: With hindsight, this sale was a historical moment for Mosman top – end properties where this acquisition was amalgamated with the adjoining property (acquired earlier) to create today, Mosman’s most expensive landholding (nearly 6,000 square metres). This was also the beginning of site consolidations along Hopetoun Avenue.
Source: Domain Property Data

2000 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 4
• Total Value – $22,550,000
• House Sales – $5,000,000 – $5,999,000 – 4
• Average Price – $5,637,500
• Highest Price – $5,900,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research observations: Three sales on The Esplanade and one on Burran Avenue for $5,600,000. The $5,000,000 + markets are now starting to gain momentum.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2001 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 14
• Total Value – $91,860,000
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 7
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 3
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 2
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 -1
• House Sales $15,000,000 to $15,999,000 -1
• Average Price – $6,561,428
• Highest Price – $15,500,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 57 per cent

RWM Research observations: This was the first time Mosman broke the double digit top–end sales market – much like first on the real estate moon. RWM was the first agency to break the $10,000,000 + real estate market.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2002 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of Houses Sold – 12
• Total Value – $79,050,000
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 5
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 3
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 2
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 1
• Average Price – $6,587,500
• Highest Price – $9,400,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent

RWM Research observations: Sales fell from 14 to 12 and the average price above $5,000,000 consolidated. It should be noted that no properties sold in excess of $10,000,000 with $9,400,000 being the highest recorded sale.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2003 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

• Number of Houses Sold – 25
• Total Value – $157,900,250
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 14
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 8
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 1
• House Sales $11,000,000 to $11,999,000 – 1
• Average Price – $6,316,000
• Highest Price – $11,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent

RWM Research: Sales more than doubled to 25 although the average price reduced marginally. This consumer sentiment heralded that the Mosman top – end markets were alive and well. For the time being “money was not an object” money was the lifestyle where the two resided in harmony.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2004 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000.000

• Number of Houses Sold – 18
• Total Value – $124,951,000
• House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 6
• House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 9
• House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 0
• House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 0
• House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 0
• House Sales $10,000 to $10,999,000 – 2
• House Sales $11,000,000 to $11,999,000 – 1
• Average Price – $6,941,722
• liHighest Price – $11,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research: Top end auctions non–existent with the average prices showing a marginal increase. Sales volume down from 25 to 18 as was the total value sold from $157,900,250 to $124,951,000. Three sales in excess of $10,000,000.
Source: Domain Property Data

A strong possibility that in 2011, the highest sale will be below $10,000,000 – interesting to see what happened to top – end properties in Mosman during the global financial crisis. All revealed in next week’s edition.

Watch the Newspoll results next Tuesday – should her popularity continue to decline (to record lows) her position as prime minister will be all but untenable. I stand by my prediction that by Easter we will have yet another prime minister. Kristina Keneally gone next weekend and Gillard recording the lowest-ever approval rating as a prime minister in Australia’s political history.

Strong possiblity of a challenge next week – The Emperor (KRudd) wants to attend the Royal wedding.

Cheers ^__^

Take a look at look at this week’s property results which is indicative of what happens with new taxes and disasters

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18.03.11Robert Simeon30 Comments »

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On one hand we have a federal government and on the other, state/territory governments and today, the left hand has no idea what the right is doing. Back–flips in politics these days are nearly as frequent as another installation of a red light speeding camera on our roads – Government backs down on health GST deal. After months and months of political rhetoric Julia Gillard proposes 50 – 50 hospital deal then surprise, surprise as Tony Abbott says Julia Gillard revamped health reform package is yet another back down. Next a constitutional crisis was averted as Abbott concocts constitutional strife with crossbench offer for rural students bringing yet another back– flip as Labor backs down on youth allowance, admitting faults in scheme for regional students. This back – flip set another extraordinary political precedent given the Julia Gillard cave – in heads off crushing defeat.

Sitting well above ground, the Governor for Moolah announced to his fellow Australian shareholders that interest rates are where they should be. Unlike Fort Fumble, which is carefully manoeuvring itself from a dastardly week of failed policy capitulations, the Governor says mining the focus, not floods. On the flip– side, our Gov urges Australians to keep saving and shareholders should see that statement as a clue, given our household debt is high.We need to be realistic given nothing will stop prices soaring as an Australian Industry Group announced that the annual bill for a typical Sydney household will climb from $1,257 to $2,012 between 2009 – 10 and 2012 -13.

BUY PRINT

You can erase policy fails to keep up with the boom given the ALP is earnestly pursuing a self proclaimed renaissance – ALP’s plan to reverse membership slump would give supporters a say in pre – selections. Fascinating theatrevin Rudd takes aim at party’s faction culture; wants party’s full review made public a self-proclaimed communist Julia Gillard rejects Rudd’s call to release election review. Which no doubt would have caused face flushes when it was revealed ALP – take a Bex, Gillard tells union heavyweights who just so happen to be the anointed ones who fast tracked the demise of The Emperor – one KRudd. Somewhat riveting, in that The Emperor – Kevin Rudd takes aim at party’s culture; wants party’s full review made public a self proclaimed communist Julia Gillard rejects Rudd’s call to release election review. Which no doubt would have caused face flushes when it was revealed ALP numbers all point the wrong way.

Australia to have carbon price from July 1. 2012, Julia Gillard announces. Now hold on a moment! In the run–up to the last federal election, Gillard ruled out a carbon tax? Not much clear in Gillard and Greens carbon framework given the key differences between the Greens, Labor and the independents that still need to be resolved. Nothing has been decided, nothing has been achieved – just another announcement hence people’s revolt looms on Australian carbon tax, Tony Abbott predicts.

The show goes on and hold your seat – Infrastructure Australia has all but derailed which is an adoptive analogy for our inept, floundering and totally incompetent NSW government. “The Gillard government’s confirmation that it will contribute $2.1 billion to building the Epping – Parramatta railway line in suburban Sydney will probably not help Labor in NSW, but it has delivered a fatal blow to the credibility of Infrastructure Australia.”Labor election strategy in chaos as voters cut Keneally loose with their primary vote down to 23 per cent and getting worse – one month tomorrow until NSW goes to the polls. Not only (according to the polls) is Keneally gone, the result will be the greatest hiding in Australian electoral history. Power sale ‘will raise only $700m’ a tad down from the predicted $5 billion – I refer you back to this week’s photo by the great Tim Mooney (with a few strikes of genius).

Last week, we commenced our exclusive breakdown of Mosman house prices from 1999 to 2010. In last week’s edition of <em>Virtual Realty News</em> we covered house prices from 1999 to 2005 up to $5.000 million – here are the 2006 to 2010 results. The data has been downloaded from <em>Domain Property Data</em> and calibrated by <em>RWM Property Research.</em>

2006 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 352
• Total Value – $742,885,130
• Median Price – $1,855,000
• Average Price – $2,110,469
• Highest Price – $15,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 48
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 146
• House sales above $2,000,000 – 86
• House sales above $3,000,000 – 45
• House sales above $4,000,000 – 27

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 7.1 per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 48 which is approximately 13.5 per cent of total sales. The average price increased from $2,017,809 to $2,105,327. Auction clearance rates increased from 36 per cent to 40 per cent.

2007 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 356
• Total Value – $815,749,720
• Median Price – $2,165,000
• Average Price – $2,291,431
• Highest Price – $22,500,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 57 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 28
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 126
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 111
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 53
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 38

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 7.2 per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 28 which is approximately 7.8 per cent of total sales. The average price increased from $2,110,469 to $2,291,431. Auction clearance rates increased from 40 per cent to 57 per cent.

2008 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 231
• Total Value – $523,725,612
• Median Price – $2,200,000
• Average Price – $2,267,210
• Highest Price –$14,700,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 35 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 25
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 83
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 71
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 30
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 22

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 4.7 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 25 which is approximately 10 per cent of sales. The average price dropped from $2,291,431 to $2,267,210. Auction clearance rates dropped from 57 per cent to 35 per cent.

2009 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 277
• Total Value – 630,499,751
• Median Price – $2,085,000
• Average Price – $2,276,172
• Highest Price – $13,200,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 42 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 18
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 114
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 83
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 36

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 5.5 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 18 so 6.5 per cent sold. The average price increased marginally from $2,267,210 to $2,276,172. Auction clearance rates increased from 25 per cent to 42 per cent.

2010 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 299
• Total Value – $704,286,155
• Median Price – $2,100,000
• Average Price – $2,355,472
• Highest Price – $12,600,000 (RWM)
• ,Auction Clearance Rate – 42 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 9
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 112
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 86
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 58
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 34

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 6.1 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 9 which is approximately 3.00 per cent of sales. In 1999 sales up to $999,999 made up 88.5 per cent of sales. The average price continued to climb ever so slowly to $2,355,472.

Next week we look at Mosman house sales above $5,000,000 from 1999 to 2010 and again we get a most interesting snapshot of how our top–end is travelling. It is doing much better than the combined efforts of Forts Crumble and Fumble.

Cheers ^__^

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25.02.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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The global financial crisis (GFC) has been a fascinating turn of events where businesses and households tweaked, sleeked and critiqued their respective currency flows in a battle for survival. So now we hear that as the good times roll, expect the cost of living to rise exponentially. With interest, I was reading another blog on Business2 which intrigued me.

“While you are talking to Glenn Stevens ask him how come the inflation rate is around 3% when everything we use or consume is rising at a much faster rate than that, and also – how come home mortgage rates in the rest of the world are SO much lower than here. And how come the banks are crying about the cost of funds – and making multi BILLION profits. And why won’t we let some other banks into this country to compete with the Big 4. Also – how come the homeowners of this country have to carry the burden of government stuff ups via monetary policy every time?”  Poignant questions to those residents living on Recovery Road, Australia!

Sydney real estate markets this year have been in a somewhat chill mode, although recent sales results are sending strong indications that the tide is turning and sentiment is starting to heat up. This week’s Mosman real estate sales are the strongest recorded this year as the results show here. Source: Domain Property Data

BUY PRINT

I was consumed by this week’s announcements to the residents on Recovery Road, Australia – starting with The GFC saved Australia. “As an aside, the realities of what really happened at our Big Four banks over the past three years makes CEOs’ extreme pay packets all the more obscene. Remember that the CBA’s $16 million man this year, Ralph Norris, took the top job in 2005 – his latest bonus bonanza supposedly recognises his responsibility for the bank coming out of the GFC in such rude good health. Haven’t seen much impact of his presumed matching responsibility for the bank’s financial and reputational exposure to Storm Financial, ABC Learning, Babcock & Brown et all reaching their crescendo on his watch. Similar remuneration report follies are on the way from ANZ, NAB and Westpac.”

Plain old economic growth is good for society as inflation expectations of 3.1 per cent in September quarter – survey as the RBA beats the inflation war drums. The mining boom will push interest rates up, Reserve Bank’s Glenn Stevens says as the odds shorten for October rate rise. Let the speculation begin when former RBA economist tips 5.75 per cent cash rate which in real terms equates to a 125 basis point increase over the next fifteen months. This would place Australia’s first ever female prime minister at Fort Fumble under increasing pressure, given 2011 could very well be another election year? Which bank? CBA joins calls for an October rate rise despite the release of data this week that household savings fall signals money woes as home loan customers told to brace for $90 – a – month increase in repayments. On top of this the Reserve Bank of Australia revealed this week that the big banks increase penalty charges take 9 per cent to $536 million after more customers fell behind in payments.

Electricity charges have gone through the roof as power bills force big firms to flee from NSW as Fort Crumble continues to mismanage NSW’s power supply where price rises put power to 138,000 people in jeopardy. Opposition energy spokesman Duncan Gay said he would not be surprised if big businesses fled NSW after being forced to bankroll an overdue energy infrastructure upgrade. “NSW Labor has ripped $14 billion out of the state’s energy retailers in dividends and taxes and failed to re-invest in our ageing infrastructure.”

Fort Crumble is encouraging Sydneysiders urged to shift inland as they drown mentally in addressing infrastructure collapses in NSW. The problem with Fort Crumble is that with just six months in power, it doesn’t have a single plan – as public loses all faith with planning process. For example:

Taking the low road to disaster where Fort Crumble has delayed 60 major road projects by at least five years (some longer) because  it can no longer fund urgent road works. No wonder Fort Crumble, hopelessly and embarrassingly broke, is trying to push residents into the bush. There is no greater example of how the present state governments mismanage debt than as state’s debt binge to top $240 billion as private sector faces squeeze. Analysis by The Australian of state (fake) budget round has found that borrowing is forecast to soar 52 per cent from $159.6 billion this year to $243.2 billion in 2014 to help fund upgrades to rundown transport, electricity and water infrastructure. The analysis found NSW and Queensland had the highest level of borrowings and both face re-election within the next six months. Constituents are wondering whether we have state governments or fake governments?

Yes, the road to recovery is long, winding and bloody confusing where even the strings on our elected puppets have worn thin and in NSW, the show can no longer go on. No wonder there is increasing demand for property within five kilometres of the Sydney CBD.

Alas, Fort Fumble embarks on a $45 billion NBN network which will become Australia’s greatest ever white elephant. We need a Very Fast Train to link cities because road works in NSW have virtually ceased.  For the record, wireless (not cable) works very well even on very fast trains.

In answer to the earlier question, “how come homeowners of this country have to carry the burden of government stuff ups via monetary policy every time?”  What Australia needs, is a train of thought – not a broken cable car!

Cheers ^__^

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24.09.10Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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The circuses at Forts Fumble and Crumble are folding their tents because, with below par performances, the crowds are disgruntled.  Angry voters ready to give Rudd the red card an amazing turnaround where this fairy–floss policy is being eaten away and RSPT now means ‘Return Sender Priority Termination’.  Having said that, under the big tent in Canberra, The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) is the  star performer of his pet event – the back flip, which he performs with ease.  It would be much easier to call an election and put the RSPT to a referendum.

Can the tax be fixed when Rudd says it’s not broken? The Emperor appears to be a broken man bearing no resemblance to Broken Hill. Kevin Rudd fights dissent in ALP ranks yet the Ring Master PM Kevin Rudd holds line on mining tax reform. The trampoline at Fort Fumble is losing its bounce, as Peter van Onselen declared this week in The Australian novices at the wheel of state. It was revealed that two thirty year olds and a thirty one year old, with no experience in the labour movement and next to none in industry or business, are coaching The Emperor with his back – flips. “However, now that Rudd appears out of his depth, caught up in poorly constructed defences of policy positions and back downs over challenges he had previously described as too important to walk away from (think emissions trading), the trio is being blamed for bad advice that could culminate in Rudd becoming the first Prime Minister in nearly 80 years to lose office after one term.”

The show must go on…..

Bugger – I thought I had Tim with this week’s request. Thinking North Pole next week!

BUY PRINT

Having read the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board and feeling somewhat comfortable that one institution has its act together, out came Australian housing market ‘a time bomb’.

Humming “send in the clowns” and in they came. “The Australian and British housing markets are the last two bubbles left in the wake of the financial crisis, and it is only a matter of time before they crash, warns legendary US investor and co – founder of global investment firm GMO, Jeremy Grantham. Mr Grantham famously reported a year before the global financial crisis: “In five years, I expect that at least one major bank (broadly defined will have failed and that up to half the hedge funds and a substantial percentage of the private equity firms in existence today will have simply ceased to exist”. The Australian reported yesterday that he said “ Australia had an unmistakable housing bubble and that prices would need to come down by 42 per cent to return to the long – term trend”.  “You cannot possibly miss it,” he said.

Reserve Bank waters down fears of real estate housing bubble and consumer sentiment is holding up. The Real Estate Institute of Australia weighed in No housing bubble in Australia citing over the period December 1996 – December 2009, median house prices increased from around $160k to around $500k; a trebling in thirteen years. Within this period there were four phases:

• From December 1996 to September 2000, median house prices in Australia showed a moderate average growth of 2.1 per cent per quarter.
• From December 2000 to December 2003, house prices appreciated at a greater rate of 3.9 per cent per quarter on average.
• From March 2004 to December 2008, house price growth moderated to an average growth of 0.8 per cent per quarter.
• During 2009, growth of median house prices again accelerated to 2.9 per cent per quarter.

Time to take a Mosman tent snapshot to see where we are today, compared to this time last year. The messages are mixed as the results show. We collated the data from Domainpropertydata and it should be noted, that a significant number of sales in 2010 are yet to record a sale price because of confidentiality agreements. It will take a few more months before we have an exact position, so these figures will be higher, rather than lower.

Mosman house and semi sales 1 January 2009 – 15 June 2009

• Total number offered – 148 @ $329,394,627
• Total number sold – 132 @ $305,159,627
• Private Treaty – 120 @ $280,714,627
• Auction – 12 @ $24,445,000
• Total Combined Median – $1,815,500
• Total Combined Average – $2,347,381
• Highest Price – $13,200,000
• Lowest Price – $975,000

Mosman house and semi sales 1 January 2010 – 15 June 2010

• Total number offered – 171 @ $276,487,629 (2009 – $329,394,627)
• Total number sold – 147 @ $276,487,629 (2009 – $305,159,627)
• Private Treaty – 91 @ $206,089,629 (2009 – $280,714,627)
• Auction – 56 @ $70,398,000 (2009 – $24,445,000)
• Total Combined Median $2,105,000 (2009 – $1,815,500)
• Total Combined Average $2,425,330 (2009 – $2,347,381)
• Highest Price – $11,000,000 (2009 – $13,200,000)

The Auction Comparisons

• 2009 Number Auctioned – 34 (2010 – 87)
• 2009 Number Withdrawn – 27 (2010 – 10)
• 2009 Number Sold – 12 (2010 – 56)
• 2009 Clearance Rate – 35 % (2010 – 64 %)
• 2009 Adjusted Clearance Rate – 20 % (2010 – 58 %)

The challenge ahead for real estate in 2010

This is not confined to the Mosman market. All real estate markets will face the challenge of matching and/or bettering the sales results recorded in the 1 July 2009 – 31 December 2009 market where results were significantly higher, compared to the previous six months.

Mosman house and semi sales 1 July 2009 – 31 December 2009

• Total number offered – 192 @ $418,706,750
• Total number sold – 174 @ $408,296,750
• Private Treaty – 127 @ $340,354,750
• Auction – 47 @ $67,942,000
• Total Combined Median – $2,250,000
• Total Combined Average – $2,617,286
• Highest Price – $12,000,000
• Lowest Price – $836,000

There is no way to avoid  the fact that our property markets have slowed since April economic recovery seen losing steam.  Events in Europe and of course the ongoing hangover of the RSPT debacle have  also been major contributors. So back to those green shoots we go – home building the biggest in nearly six years and investors ignore signs and pile into property.

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that while home loans to owner/occupiers fell a seasonally adjusted ten per cent in the first four months of the year, lending to property investors rose eleven per cent. In the past year, lending to investors rose thirty per cent nationwide, and twenty per cent in NSW.

Our property markets (historically) tend to hibernate over winter so I wouldn’t read too much into present activity. It’s actually a good time to buy!  It does appear however, that the “fat lady” won’t be singing for some time to come, which shows just how hard it is to read property markets. Unlike the share markets, we don’t have buy and sell recommendations.  Investors are selling out of the stock market and moving their funds into the property markets – another clue?

Word from Sideshow Alley this week is that The Emperor is considering performing until April 2011 where he will call an election. Looks like his advisers consider it would be smart to go to the polls immediately following the Fort Crumble election in March 2011. I wonder if this weekends by – election in Penrith may change that decision?

Cheers ^__^

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18.06.10Robert Simeon2 Comments »