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With my iPad still on order – my attention this week was on the release of ‘Betrayal’ – The Underbelly of Australian Labor by Simon Benson, senior political journalist at The Daily Telegraph. Like many Aussies who are in absolute dismay at what is currently unravelling within the seams of our ailing economy, here is a book with more twists than a Rubik’s cube. Rudd broke secret pact with Iemma so as quick as a flash The Emperor denied such a thing.

More importantly, past Prime Minister Paul Keating commented in Betrayal – “When the motivation of the machinery of the Party is unfurnished as to policy purpose, it has nothing to offer than to focus on marketing and polls. After a while the public becomes aware of this and they realise that marketing and spin have no basis … That is more the rule these days than the exception.” Again another week of prolific marketing spin from both Fort Fumble and Fort Crumble – our esteemed federal and state Governments collaboratively spinning this most uncomfortable electoral seat of bad poll therapy. So here I go again, to ‘spin’ this week’s edition of Virtual Realty News.

Heaven forbid – How Sydney’s iconic Opera House is at risk of ‘financial tragedy’ a damning internal report has revealed , that unless urgent action is taken, the Opera House will have to close. “In April last year Prime Minister Kevin Rudd hit the roof after The Daily Telegraph revealed former Premier Nathan Rees planned a $900 million rebuild.” Sydney Opera House has been lobbying Fort Crumble for ten years so in next week’s State Budget $130m to save Sydney Opera House from closure. Maybe our mining companies can save our Opera House. After all, they are expected to save everything else in Australia. As for the State, it is stone motherless broke – absolutely devoid of imagination and concept. Marketing and polls won’t save it.

BUY PRINT

Frustrating when you see that Fort Crumble wasted $500 million when it axed the failed CBD Metro proposal and it’s all about to get worse. Second harbour crossing – or chaos where a team headed by the state’s former rail and roads chief, Ron Christie, identified that without a second rail link across the harbour, the CityRail system will face paralysis by 2022. I thought we were already there which may explain why Fort Crumble is using marketing and polls in an effort to change its identity.

Fort Crumble is fast becoming Fort Chaos – mates race: $45 m deal snares MP as the V8 Supercars race will now cost taxpayers at least $10 million more over the next five years – the budget was $35 million. So when all else fails what does the government do? Labor shuts off access to secrets the Ombudsman, Bruce Barbour, is seeking to change a nine-word loophole where access to documents has previously, been refused. The cost of hosting World Youth Day came in $64 million over budget yet, $50 million was pledged this week, to keep the rugby league grand final in Sydney. This was $20 million more than Queensland was prepared to pay. Little wonder senior Fort Crumble ministers joke that Labor should re-name itself “the Keneally Party”, as it is now politics without a whiff of Labor just another example of marketing and polls.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met this week to spin the cash rate where house prices ‘out of whack, set for slump’. A comment from abroad where the International Monetary Fund voiced its concerns on house price values compared to average incomes. Possibly too much time was spent reading two American dreams shatter although Australian property markets are witnessing households pull back spending as rates rise. Yes – a chill wind through house prices which prompted the RBA to place rates on hold.

Interesting to note that when property markets are booming, buyers adopt an aggressive pattern of behaviour and yet when property markets cool, become passive. I’ve been doing this gig for twenty five years now – currently I am selling the first home I ever sold in 1986 for $285,000. 43 Rangers Road Cremorne can now be purchased for around $2,250,000. So are you better off buying in an aggressive or a passive market? I suggest the latter. Here is an interesting graph courtesy of RP Data that I found this week. It amazed me, considering we are more a private treaty real estate model compared to public auction. In 2010 – 80.4 per cent of public auctions were conducted in Victoria and NSW. This will become an interesting topic in weeks to come.

For the month of June, the RBA left rates on hold prompting Treasurer Wayne Swan to make this comment: “This news will be a welcome relief for many Australian families and businesses around the country, who are of course doing it tough.” Again, this would be marketing and polls.

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Wayne Swan again “Tomorrow we have the national accounts, and I have every confidence that with the right policies in place, our economy can continue to be one of the best in the world over coming years… From our perspective on this side of the house, we will do everything to reform our economy, to build economic capacity, to keep pressure off inflation so we can grow sustainably.” Wayne, please allow me to explain a few basic economic fundamentals that escape you.

When Swan released his Budget 2010/11 – he announced that it was hedged on a consumer price inflation of 2.5 per cent, even though the RBA recorded a March 2009/10 rate of 2.9 per cent. In Virtual Realty News I suggested that inflation would be at 4.5 per cent by June 2010 and your 25 per cent increase for cigarettes tax slug would further ignite inflation. So what happened? Cigarette tax sparks inflation jump where prices increased by 3.7 per cent in the year to May, up from the 2.9 per cent annual pace in April according to the TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation gauge. Given the RBA has an inflation comfort zone between 2.00 – 3.00 per cent, let me adjust my inflation prediction to 5.00 per cent by June (this month). Petrol prices up, rents up, vegetables and electricity always increase over winter – spin, marketing and polls.

Taxpayers fund Swan’s ad blitz where the mining tax sets nerves on edge as the big miners gave Rudd the fight he was looking for just that taxpayers never expected another back flip where they foot the bill on a tax that is yet to be passed,despite a $40 million advertising campaign approval. Although Rudd treats us like mugs with latest backslide on government ads. On The 7.30 Report Swan defends mining tax ads and the smaller miners reject Kev’s idea of help. Head of Infrastructure Australia offered this advice restart tax plan: Kevin Rudd’s man Rod Eddington as too did Alan Kohler The government’s RSPT spin is a disgrace. Then the first of many announcements as the tools go down Xstrata suspends development spending two projects over super tax and that, as The Emperor described earlier , is neither “bunkum” nor “balderdash”.

My iPad is yet to arrive so I keep reading Betrayal, so can marketing save PM? Absolutely no chance as the Mad Monk enunciates from his soap – box keep fighting Rudd and super – profits tax. Don’t pay too much attention to the March GPD figures. The June GDP will paint an entirely different position. Europe debt situation serious – Treasury which is a burning issue as too – home insulation inspections yet to begin. Kurraba Point declared a new suburb and ASIC give up on the Offset Alpine mystery.

The stand–off between The Emperor and Australia’s mining companies is a compelling visual. My tip: the mining companies will smash Fort Fumble. Why? Simply because nobody at Fort Fumble has ever run a business before. So how does one turn a big business into a small business? That would come down to marketing and polls. Australia would be better off if it had invested our $38.500 million in BHP and Rio Tinto shares.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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4.06.10Robert Simeon11 Comments »

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In real estate we speak about position, position and position. Sometimes when politicians appear on television, their position can be an embarrassment because, although they can talk the talk, they can’t walk the walk! The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) found himself in that exact position when he appeared on Q&A – Monday night on that ABC at Old Parliament House, Canberra. Journalists had an absolute field day (as did viewers) “At the end of the day, the kids caned Kevin on Q&A” by David Penberthy in The Punch (another great daily online read). I well remember noticing this point. “One of the funniest things about the show was how so many of the young people in the crowd smirked in amusement at Rudd’s Ruddisms – “there’s no magic wand”, “but you know something”, and the ever – present “at the end of the day”, and his use of hand gestures and the sweeping arm to explain the scary arrival of the GFC.” He was trying to gild his lily which wilted after approximately five minutes of prudent interrogation by our country’s future leaders!

They say “nothing makes it harder to remember campaign promises than getting elected” and The Emperor would have observed that his Fort Fumble is now under greater scrutiny and attack from all sides. The Daily Telegraph ran the following stories “Kevin Rudd’s 795 days of empty promises” and “Kevin Rudd’s report card: could do better”. A tough week for The Emperor or is it just that politicians make headlines running for something or running from something?

No doubt he will be very fit by the time he takes us to the polls this year given so many empty promises have glaringly emerged with our “economic conservative” Prime Minister. Joe Hockey fared much better as “Giant Tinkerbell” tutu, magic wand and crown.

Surfs Up! As too are wobbegong attacks although I did chuckle when a witness described the shark as a Great White – although these surfers look unperturbed whilst catching waves at Manly Beach

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Tim Mooney Photography

So from politics, let’s move to property and performance where we mark the report card for Cremorne house results from 2007 to 2009 (next week we examine Neutral Bay houses).

CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2009 to 31 DECEMBER 2009

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• Total number offered – 91 (Mosman 334)
• Total number of sales recorded – 87 (Mosman 303)
• Total value sold – $157,197,000 (Mosman $668,966,377)
• Public Auction – 25 properties to a total value of $38,727,500
• Private Treaty – 62 properties to a total value of $118,469,500
• Median Price – $1,450,000 (Mosman $2,000,000)
• Average Price – $1,871,392 (Mosman $2,397,728)
• Highest Sale – $13,500,000 (RWM)

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CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2008 to 31 DECEMBER 2008

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• Total number offered – 96 (Mosman 360)
• Total number of sales recorded – 80 (Mosman 287)
• Total value sold – $164,864,550 (Mosman $774,865,612)
• Public Auction – 24 properties to a total value of $48,531,000
• Private Treaty – 56 properties to a total value of $116,333,550
• Median Price – $1,650,000 (Mosman $2,000,000)
• Average Price – $2,113,648 (Mosman $2,738,041)
• Highest Sale – $8,280,000 (RWM)

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CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2007 to 31 DECEMBER 2007

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• Total number offered – 100 (Mosman 456)
• Total number of sales recorded – 96 (Mosman 412)
• Total value sold – $223,006,433 (Mosman $1,182,372,720)
• Public Auction – 28 properties to a value of $52,452,600
• Private Treaty – 68 properties to a value of $174,861,433
• Median Price – $1,700,000 (Mosman $2,300,000)
• Average Price – $ 2,347,436 (Mosman $2,869,836)
• Highest Sale – $15,000,000 (new Cremorne record)

Source: Australian Property Monitors

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SUMMARY CREMORNE HOUSE PRICES FROM 2007 TO 2009

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Note that for Mosman and Cremorne in 2008 and 2009, the years of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) posted the highest recorded sales for each year. During the GFC, Cremorne traded as usual 2009 – 87 sales, 2008 produced 80 sales and 2007 recorded 96 sales. Mosman bunkered down 2009 – 303 sales, 2008 – 287 sales and 2007 – 412. It should also be noted that Cremorne posted the highest sale in 2009 at $13,500,000 over Mosman $13,200,000 (both vendors are Virtual Realty News subscribers).

So Mosman property and performance was back in the spotlight this week when it made the front page of The Sydney Morning Herald . “No more withdrawal symptoms as bankers again splash the cash” and “A bonus is a must, says the real estate crowd” . I would add that our 2010 market is too early to call – a key clue for subscribers to our daily email alerts will be our under offer and sold alerts – our website is now the Mosman sales barometer.

Peter Martin from The Sydney Morning Herald sent another warning to The Emperor when he wrote “Interest rate rises in Labor hands” – “The head of the Reserve Bank has held out the prospect of continuing low interest rates, as long as Labor sticks to its pledge to restrain spending.” Which is highly unlikely in an election year although I did chuckle when I read, “Joyce link between rates, ‘gross over-simplification’, says Henry”.

Somewhat ironic, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) saying that Labor again accumulated debt and the Howard regime paid it off in seventeen years of unprecedented economic growth. This again points me to the Henry Tax Report which is as mysterious as a government grant from The Emperor in a Liberal seat – it never happens. Makes one wonder just why this report (six weeks since its release) remains highly confidential.

What is not confidential is that RWM no longer offer properties for rent. Our total focus now is on sales and Agentpoint has delivered what I consider the smartest homepage in the real estate industry.

We are proud to further develop our online business – as our business is your business.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Balmoral real estate, Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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12.02.10Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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Forget the spin and electoral rhetoric – Australia had just one quarter of negative growth yet in the wash – up many businesses did very well from the (apparently) worst global financial crisis (GFC) since the Great Depression. Danny John from the Sydney Morning Herald wrote “What crisis? Westpac gains ground from the GFC “A close study of Westpac’s annual financial result shows just how much the country’s second – biggest bank has benefited from the gains in revenue – and therefore market share – which all four of the majors have enjoyed in the wake of the global financial crisis.” No doubt shareholders will be happy with this most taxing banking stimulus!

That other stimulus paints an entirely new picture IMF praises handling of financial crisis when Peter Martin from the Sydney Morning Herald wrote “The International Monetary Fund has singled out Australia as one of the best managed economies, declaring that only Denmark, Korea, Norway, Australia and Sweden among advanced economies will require little or no medium – term adjustment to keep government debt at safe levels”. Now that may be fine however, Fort Fumble (Federal government) has some amazing housekeeping to balance both past and present where it will require some pretty amazing creative accountancy to balance its books. You can read Fort Fumble’s very own accountancy plan MYOB – (May You Obey Bureaucrats) here.

Tim Mooney Photography captures Cammeray, Tunks Park and Northbridge Golf Course

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Still on creative accounting, the award would have to go to our very own Nathan Rees who presides over Fort Crumble. This week he approved a three per cent pay rise for all NSW MP’s making himself the highest paid in Australia after The Emperor – Kevin Rudd. Now before we jump to conclusions both are battling enormous budget deficits so that in itself highlights the pressure they currently find themselves in.

The Sunday Telegraph revealed “Nathan Rees’ master plan to convince NSW to give him one more term. “Nathan Rees needs cash – and plenty of it – to convince fed – up voters to give Labor one more chance. Linda Silimalis reported “Embattled NSW Premier Nathan Rees is pleading with Kevin Rudd to help fund a $10 billion – plus pre – election spending spree to save his government.” Reads more like a last rites request although many would agree that from a business growth analogy, NSW passed away a few years ago and remains the highest taxing state with the least to show in terms of infrastructure.

As we all know, everything requires a plan although it would appear that a few requiring that stimulus are looking rather sick after construction on a Fort Fumble rail project was shut down in Sydney due to a financial blow–out, allegedly caused by poor planning. Our very own Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, Anthony Albanese, said earlier this year, that this project to take freight trains off the Sydney passenger rail network would be completed by early 2010 (now on hold indefinitely). Note this is a Fort Fumble initiative as against another Fort Crumble ongoing malfunction.

For me, another great read of the week was the transcript from Stateline NSW – when Quentin Dempster quizzed Kevin Rudd and Nathan Rees – Discredited

Later in the week, The Daily Telegraph ran the story – Developer lobbies for Della Bosca (Bonka) to become premier. The country’s biggest property developer Harry Triguboff is privately lobbying Labor Party officials to support John Della Bosca’s bid to become NSW premier. You can draw your own conclusions on that although it is interesting to see a property developer interested in re-building Fort Crumble – (I will get to that shortly) as trigger – happy. Makes plenty of sense when the NSW government has next to no idea about building infrastructure. After all it is actually broke!

The Melbourne Cup rate increase (whilst widely tipped) had little effect on the punters and a record $95.600 million was bet on race day. The Emperor keeps telling us that we need his stimulus yet Australia is the only country raising its cash rate so who is actually punting?

Macquarie Economics Research – How high will rates go? They lead the tipping competition on our interest rate predictions? “The similarity between the October and November statements suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) game plan remains unchanged. This means that the first stage of tightening will be out to get interest rates back towards a neutral level – which we think this is now 4 1/2 %“. That means another 100 basis point increases although it should be noted that the RBA has never before increased the cash rate three months in a row.

Robert Gottliebsen wrote on Business Spectator  Rate rises may backfire “Tomorrow’s Melbourne Cup deliberations by the Reserve Bank board present issues far more complex than most commentators are canvassing.” Enter Harry Triguboff again backed by the Macquarie Bank graph (above). “The Reserve Bank, its hidden agenda is that it is deeply concerned that the recent sharp rise in dwelling prices and the bank fears that a new bout of housing affordability issues and an eventual price bubble is looming as Australia’s housing prices move outside world trends. The rising prices move outside world trends. The rising dwelling prices are pushing the central bank towards lifting interest rates more sharply, despite Treasury caution.”

“Then enter Harry Triguboff – the largest owner and builder of apartments in Sydney and a major force in Queensland.”

“Understandably many discount Triguboff’s conclusions because he clearly has an axe to grind. But over the years I have found that the base trends that Triguboff isolates are right nine times out of 10, but his remedies are uncomfortable. When Sydney was booming he said the city was dying, but then declared it would not die because eventually the politicians and local councils would start making sensible decisions. It’s taken eight years but they are now listening to him.”

“Triguboff points out that for the last five years the construction of Australian housing has been half the demand created by rising population, so a huge backlog has developed.”

“Triguboff now says: “If the Reserve Bank insists on raising interest rates in the hope of suppressing prices then they must understand that they will in turn suppress construction.”

“Banks are still very cautious and will insist on decent margins of profit, otherwise they will not advance loans to developers. I know that the Reserve Bank does not want to do it, but they have to make up their minds. Interest rates should not rise until building activity increase significantly. That is the true reasons for raising interest rates – stop oversupply. But all the evidence and rents and prices point to undersupply for the foreseeable future.”

“What Triguboff is highlighting is that the dramatic rises in Australia’s population complicate the interest rate argument. The Reserve Bank will not halt interest rates because of the Triguboff warning, but they need to understand that their current decision making process may create the opposite of what they expect in long – term dwelling prices.”

This should be a cornerstone point with the Ken Henry Review into Australia’s taxation report which is due on Christmas Eve.

On a lighter note – towel surfing was introduced to Australia last Friday when over 200 people on Bondi Beach joined in a synchronous dance to the music of local resident Ben Lee. I wonder when it will come to Balmoral Beach or possibly an open for inspection. (Turn up the volume).

Our property markets need to start dancing to the right tune – the RBA is obviously playing the wrong music as the dance floor is empty.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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6.11.09Robert Simeon2 Comments »

Like teenagers who just received their first credit cards, Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan have collectively joined Australian state and territory governments with a deficit budget (once approved in the Senate). To put this into greater perspective, the NSW government (Fort Crumble) has been broke for years despite record tax receipts and yet infrastructure maintenance remained all but non – existent. With world leaders announcing stimulus packages (and I agree we need them) let’s not camouflage these massive fiscal announcements under the guise of combating the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The problems in NSW (and the other states and territories for that matter) happened well before the GFC.

Last Friday, I read with interest an article on www.crikey.com.au by John Hewson – economist and former Liberal party leader titled “Hewson : we could see an election this year” where in part he made the following comment “At best, the Rudd Government’s second stimulatory package will just buy some time — simply delay the inevitable. As long as the global recession continues to deepen and, as a consequence, China’s growth continues to stall, the best Rudd can hope for is to hold up consumer spending by the cash handouts sufficient to avoid a technical recession — namely, two consecutive quarters of negative growth. “The plot this week began to thicken.

Ross Gittins from The Sydney Morning Herald www.smh.com.au filed this week an article titled “With best intent, politics intrudes” A great read so here are the first nine paragraphs “Kevin Rudd has long been afraid the downturn in the economy will cost him re-election, making his Government a one – term wonder. Malcolm Turnbull knows the downturn offers the best chance he’ll get to defy history and win the election, thus securing his own leadership.

These never – to – be admitted truths explain the political games both men are playing over last week’s budgetary stimulus package, even as the economy burns.

If you want to understand what’s happening in the economy and the rights and wrongs of economic policy you have to be able to distinguish between the politics and the economics. But that’s not easy because the pollies are always trying to disguise their political motives as economic.

Whatever successful politicians do or say, the political implications of what they do are never far from the front of their minds – even when they’re doing just what they should be doing in the nation’s interests.

As part of his long-running efforts to ensure he doesn’t get blamed for the recession. Rudd has repeatedly emphasised how bleak the news is from overseas and how badly it will affect us. It’s true, of course, but saying it is so often and so forcefully risks adding to the blow to business and consumer confidence.

Rudd hopes he can escape blame for the downturn provided he’s seen to have done his best to respond to it. That’s partly why he keeps popping up every few weeks with another measure to counter it.

Even so, mainstream economic gloom-from the International Monetary Fund to the Australian Treasury and most macro-economists – has been urging the Government to use the budget to stimulate demand, to make the stimulus big to get it happening as soon as possible.

It needs to be big because the global recession is expected to be so severe, it needs to start as soon as possible because getting in before the economy starts unravelling will be more effective.

Of course, the need for haste doesn’t justify Rudd’s attempt to push the legislation through Parliament in just a day or two.”

Back to the thickening plot of Rudd’s early election (alleged) plans. So this investigative agent went off to The Tally Room where he found that the Queensland Labor government must call a state election by September 2009. This is to win a fifth term where a loss would seriously impact what some media outlets are already calling the “Ruddslide”. A clue: infrastructure spending to improve state government perceptions for approval levels, maybe re-election?

Then the clanger in yesterday’s Daily Telegraph with the headline “Protect Rees, Rudd tells Labor MPs” I loved this – “Labor Party bosses have been ordered to protect Premier Nathan Rees from a leadership challenge and “calm down NSW” to allow Kevin Rudd to call a possible early election in the second half of this year.

Oh dear – what extent some individuals will go to, to preserve and stroke their suffering egos. A case of once bitten twice shy? Maybe a case of Sunrise to Sunset!

Next week, we address the amendment to Land Tax legislation where the Premier Nathan Rees introduced his premium rate and investment property owners had the current rate of 1.6 per cent increased to 2.00 per cent for investment properties valued over $2,250,000.

With GST receipts already down by approximately 40 per cent, the elected governments simply increase taxes which results in businesses reducing staff.

Nine years on – it is now revealed that GST has increased taxes NOT reduced them. The platform was fraudulently sold to the voting public.

The GFC did not help – however State governments are just as bad, even worse. They escalate the financial remorse for taxpayers and it will only get worse.

A hard week for all Australians, especially those involved in the tragedy of the bush fires in Victoria. We have placed a link on our homepage for those who wish to contribute.

http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/02/victorian-bushfire-appeal-2009/

Cheers ^__^

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13.02.09Robert Simeon3 Comments »