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I’ve been obsessed now with the www – (weird whacky ways) consumer online movement for fourteen years. Prior to that, we had black and white television, fresh daily milk deliveries in glass bottles, one telephone per household, wash tub wringers, beta videos and 45 rpm records. We also paid for a newspaper (unless you stole it) and let’s not forget that when you dialled 013 (directories) you were charged for the experience. Today, these, enquiries are made online – free of charge.

CEO’s and business owners are currently struggling to understand the latest online strategies (and survive) and why, their respective businesses are looking pear-shaped. It is happening in television advertising, print media and radio commercials – online advertising has arrived and is taking a significant market share. In fact, it’s booming.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Just look at the profit reporting announcements this week where Fairfax Media posted a net full – year loss of $380 million announcing “unprecedented” declines in advertising revenues. The Seven Network posted a 91.2 per cent decline in full year profit where large losses were proportioned to their ownership of West Australian Newspapers (again citing declines in the overall advertising market). News Corp really brought home the bacon by posting a $US3.4 billion ($4.03 billion) loss citing a downturn in advertising markets and impairment charges. Newspaper advertising strategies require a complete overhaul and it is obvious that the present methodology is becoming irrelevant and too expensive, compared to the alternatives.

Just thirteen houses in Mosman were advertised in last Saturday’s edition of Domain. This prompted me to count just how many houses were advertised on Domain in total. Just 86 – the lowest number in memory. Not at all helpful, was the fact that we sold $17,385,000 worth of houses since last week’s edition of Virtual Realty News. No longer available – 23 Upper Avenue Road, 10 Middle Head Road, 15A Clanalpine Avenue, Sirius Cove, 5 Wonga Road (four sales by electronic advertising campaigns). A clue! $929,190,221 in subscriber sales in the Mosman – Cremorne and Neutral Bay market. As well as the best our online position (database) we have the best negotiators!

It should be noted that our property markets are no longer predictable with the upcoming Spring/Summer market appearing (at this point) to being very tightly held. Open house inspections over before lunch (who would have predicted that?) – changing times.

All arrows keep pointing to Google. It commands ninety per cent of online search enquiries in Australia and it is a no-brainer for any business not to be dominant on the major information highway. Competing search engine Bing (less than ten per cent of searches) has just announced its user-submitted homepage competition, although I remain unconvinced that this photo will significantly increase traffic – it is not the picture but the the content that attracts eyeballs!

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News Limited’s arrows apparently now point to paid online readership when the Los Angeles Times reported “Chief Digital officer Jonathan Miller has positioned News Corp, as a logical leader in the effort to start collecting fees from online readers.” As quick as a flash (and unprecedented – I believe) Fairfax boss Brian McCarthy announced that he was “happy to talk” to rival News Corp about its plan to charge readers who access online news content. Charge for online? I wonder if newspapers will then be free – what an about face. The Internet has simply matured and users have embraced this change in culture. It is now widely acknowledged that the online available resources in modern times are rolling out much smarter user experiences and applications.

Late in 2006 – Google (the monster) acquired YouTube for $US1.76 billion which just so happens to be the Internet’s top video channel. Now YouTube will start paying videographers for their content given they are now accepting page advertisers.

Twitter co-founder Biz Stone also announced that he too would introduce some type of paid content for commercial customers. Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) is the only Mosman agency (that I am aware of) using Twitter as Biz identified for his charging model “But we we’ve identified a selection of things that businesses say are helping to make them more profit.” Nothing wrong with a pay to stay model as long as you understand it – I still believe Google will somehow mash YouTube into its real estate model.

So let’s move to the following quote that I read online this week “Web Squared: Web 2.0 Five Years On” (a great read – should you be moving. Please download and read) “Hence our theme for this year: Web Squared. 1990 -2004 was the match being struck; 2005-2009 was the fuse; and 2010 will be the explosion.” In summation the report tells us “If we are going to solve the world’s most pressing problems, we must put the power of the Web to work, its technologies, its business models, and perhaps most importantly, its philosophies of openness, collective intelligence, and transparency. And to do that, we must take the Web to another level. We can’t afford incremental evolution anymore.”

“It’s time for the Web to engage the real world. Web meets World – that’s Web-Squared.”

Every time you open a link, Google rewards that business with a vote that propels it in their rankings for that respective keyword search – the more votes, the higher your business ranking which explains why consumer communication (newsletters) keeps getting voted into powerful online positions on the Google Monster.

Since the unexpected Global Financial Crisis arrived here in Australia our business model has exceeded our expectations (all things considered) based on the results we have delivered in our marketplace. In my opinion, RWM could not be better prepared for the predicted “explosion” next year. Web Squared said “But 2009 marks a pivot point in the history of the Web. It’s time to leverage the true power of the platform we’ve built. The Web is no longer an industry unto itself – the Web is now the world.”

Yes – times change – although not as fast as NSW Labor changes Premiers. Embarrassing, and highlights the gross incompetence at Fort Crumble. Woolworths wants a bigger tool box to nail consumers and speculation that our property market is set for another boom. June quarter GDP figures are released next week – negative or positive? I predict positive although a negative result would put an interesting spin on the micro/macro analogies of economic recovery.

Once www stood for weird whacky ways – now I suggest that www should stand for ‘what (a) wonderful world’. I should register that and remember where you read it first. See you next week and our online business shall forever remain free – another clue.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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28.08.09Robert Simeon11 Comments »

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The global financial crisis (GFC) in Australia was short and quick and now Australia has to manage its inherited financial flu, courtesy of inexperienced politicians shooting from the hip (your hip pocket).

With the benefit of hindsight, the global financial crisis (GFC) was not equal (or even close) to the Great Depression (Rudd/Swan analogies via Fort Fumble (Federal government), where, rash/panic policy decisions have sent our national recovery back decades. I stand convinced that businesses have led the road to recovery – not cash splashes. Just one negative quarter of economic growth (March quarter) does not (and should not) equate to over $300 billion of debt.

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Tim Mooney Photography – Palm Beach & Palm Beach Lighthouse

www.timmooneyphotography.com

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took a totally different read on our economy and massaged the cash rate down, opting for measured reductions over panic policy. RBA – “In contrast to most other developed economies, indicators of household activity in Australia have been fairly resilient over the past year. Retail sales and the housing market have been quite buoyant since late 2008 and there has been a significant rebound in consumer sentiment, particularly over the last few months.” With the recession now abating, the next move with interest rates will be up not down.

Given that the vast majority of businesses received absolutely no financial benefit from Fort Fumble’s financial based recovery plan, the question now is, when will an Australian Federal government next return a budget surplus? In all probability 2020. That means eleven years of lost opportunities to build a better and stronger economy.

A recession (March quarter) is no excuse for the embarrassing rhetoric from elected politicians when in front of a camera. If the majority of those running businesses had listened to Fort Fumble’s predictions of doom and gloom (Great Depression 2) unemployment would have been closer to ten per cent. Fort Fumble panicked but fortunately, business managers relied on their own aptitude, intelligence and readings of their respective business markets. Then again, they are not playing with and wasting other people’s money.

Just as interesting are journalists who don’t ask elected politicians if they still stand by their previous predictions regarding the GFC, which prompted unprecedented national debt levels. Just as interesting again, is that the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index rose 4.0 per cent in August to 113.4 points which lifts the index to its highest level since October 2007, when it recorded 115.3 points.

Much like the innuendo that half of Mosman’s houses (Mosman has 4,900 houses approximately) were secretly on the market when anecdotal sales evidence could only identify 275 (November 2008) that were actually for sale. Today, when I look at www.domain.com.au Mosman has just 75 houses for sale which leads us to predict that house prices will jump by a ten per cent minimum in the run through to Christmas. Of the 75 houses currently available, 24 have been on the market for less than one month, 10 have been on the market for less than two months and 41 have been on the market for over three months.

The real estate industry is quickly moving into overdrive with the leading online agencies (those who invested in the future with their own money) becoming the preferred option for vendors).

PricewaterhouseCoopers recently released its Entertainment & Media Outlook 2009-2013 report which predicts growth at just 1.7 per cent as against the previous average annual spend of 5.5 per cent. It will be very difficult for traditional media to bounce back when vendors are opting for online campaigns over more expensive print campaigns. Everything points to the internet. This is exactly how agents are increasing their online presence with database client communications. I will make a prediction that over the next 24 months, a quarter of Australian real estate agencies will close down simply because they have fallen by the wayside with technology. This is the stark reality of changing times where nine years on our online media platform convictions/predictions are now a reality.

Electronic listings for ‘homes open for inspection’ are now being fast tracked. Then again, Richardson & Wrench Mosman (RWM) has been doing this for nine years and we were the first real estate agency to release this industry media platform.

My thanks to Steve and Richard for writing the last three editions while I took my mid-year break. Unfortunately, I failed in my efforts to secure that Aussie Bar table mat, because they have now sold out – so I am back at Christmas to secure this valued commodity.

Plenty of clues in the Mosman housing market at this point in time. RWM currently has 25 per cent of the Mosman housing market on our online sales platform which coincides with the fact that RWM has sold the greatest number of homes during the GFC – then again how many weekly market updates are in your inbox?

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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14.08.09Robert Simeon23 Comments »

With the healing process well underway, what has become overwhelmingly apparent, is the confidence generated by the power that lies within. Initially, the powerful information highway ran amok with comparative analysis that compared the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to the Great Depression and christened it ‘Great Depression Two’. What next? With the benefit of hindsight, fighting adversity can be very revealing, especially for those who backed their business models in trying times. If you are not prepared, you won’t be spared!

Let’s look at the rings of confidence – well the ones I recently observed that I consider noteworthy.

www.timmooneyphotography.com

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) announced this week that our local economy should shrink 0.3 per cent in 2009 which, when compared to other OECD economies, is the lowest decline predicted. It predicts that in 2010, the Australian economy will roar back 2.4 per cent in GDP growth. The OECD identified China as the driving force and upgraded growth estimates from 6.3 per cent to 7.7 per cent in 2009 and 9.3 per cent in 2010. This is good news for Australia given that China is a major trading partner. Just as interesting, will be our June quarter GDP results. Whilst our unemployment rate is predicted to reach 7.9 per cent (lower than Budget forecasts of 8.25 to 8.5 per cent) our labour markets remain resilient compared to other global economies.

Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting in June, confirmed that Australia is negotiating the current global downturn well (also noting a very strong recovery in China). The RBA also noted that bank funding costs are rising. This coincided with a statement from the Commonwealth Bank’s head of retail banking, that the bank faces extra costs equivalent to 0.6 per cent over the next eighteen months. This announcement has seen homeowners rushing to lock in mortgage rates, believing that in Australia, interest rates have now bottomed. The lowest variable rate that can be obtained from the major banks is 5.74 per cent and three – year fixed rates this week jumped to 6.69 per cent.

Also, this week, in the opinion of The Real Estate Institute of Australia, residential property markets have bottomed and there is anecdotal evidence that property markets are now consolidating. This is in line with what we have been suggesting in recent editions (you heard it here first). Auction clearance rates are a great barometer and this week’s results certainly confirm this market positioning. Markets recording sales evidence above 80 per cent are considered booming markets.

What didn’t happen in the Mosman housing market in 2009 was a capitulation of values. The presumption that every second home was on the market never came to fruition and in 2009 it was not 50 per cent, rather 2.75 per cent. Here is a three year snapshot of Mosman house sales from 1 January to 23 June 2007, 2008 and 2009.

1 January 2007 to 23 June 2007

• Total recorded sales – 215
• Total sales value – $573,794,220
• Median house price – $2,230,000
• Average Mosman house price – $2,668,810

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1 January 2008 to 23 June 2008

• Total recorded sales – 160
• Total sales value – $452,066,112
• Median house price – $2,530,000
• Average Mosman house price – $2,861,177

(Note: less sales higher median and average price)
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1 January 2009 to 23 June 2009

• Total recorded sales – 95*
• Total sales value – $218,141,001
• Median house price – $1,780,000
• Average Mosman house price – $2,134,602

*Our recent sales have not been included in the 2009 figures as yet

Now this is where it gets interesting – for Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) sales data.

RWM sales in June 2007 – $18,836,000
RWM sales in June 2008 – $19,815,000
RWM sales in June 2009 – $51,038,200

The reason for this amazing result (given the current GFC) is quite simple. Our point of difference is our online positioning. The number of online and email newsletters has jumped over the last five years, increasing by 475 per cent, while print (only newsletters decreased 43 per cent from 7,395 to 4,180) and those in both print and electronic formats remained about the same (4,859, vs. 4,949), according to www.mediafinder.com

The moral of this story lies in our discipline and determination to lead our industry by example. What you put into your industry of choice determines what you get out of it. Yes – writing a weekly online newsletter takes time and effort. So does maintaining one of the largest databases in the industry. However in simple terms this point of contact is what generates results.

We all know that actions speak louder than words and all any business can hope to achieve, is client satisfaction with optimum results. Subscriber sales rose this week to $899,066,219 (the Australian record) http://www.rwm.com.au/sales-list/sold_listing/

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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26.06.09Robert Simeon2 Comments »