Welcome back to Mosman’s number one real estate blog and it just happens to be our twelfth year of market critiquing and reporting!   It is imperative to note that as an agency we don’t deal the cards – we play the hands that we are dealt.

With so much happening, it is somewhat difficult to know where to start unpopularity contest has Abbott as winner with Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott neck- and–neck as Australia’s most unpopular leader. Will Julia Gillard survive the year? Unlikely !  My guess is that she’ll be out by June 30 which  mirrors the image of NSW Labor who played ‘pass the leader’ before the March 2011 annihilation.

Two economic lunatics unleashed their opinions Jordan Wirsz: Bloodbath to hit Australian real estate when he predicted Australian property could crash by more than 60 per cent. This was quickly followed up by perennial house cellar dweller property prices to fall 20% by 2013 year’s end: Steve Keen. I will get onto these two later: suffice to say they are not the only ones who have absolutely no idea.

Enter the “World’s Greatest Treasurer”, Wayne Swan, who constantly contradicts economic common sense to the extent that he is embarrassing every time he adds a commentary.  Stephen Bartholomeusz summed it up quite eloquently when he wrote on Business Spectator – Swan’s blind bank bashing “already a chorus of like-minded bashers is forming behind him and taking pre – emptive pot shots at the banks even before there is a anything to shoot at.”

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Welcome back -Mr Mooney at his brilliant best again – 2012 will be a cocktail of sunny skies and inclement business/consumer sentiment. I see more skies of blue for the Mosman markets and in our opinion prices have well and truly bottomed.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is well aware that the funding by Australian banks is under great pressure as a result of the global financial crisis. Wayne Swan obviously believes that money grows on trees Bartholomeusz wrote “while the majority have, with the help of risk – averse depositors, done a very credible job since the onset of the global financial crisis of reducing their dependence on offshore sources of funds, and short term funding from offshore in particular, they still have an offshore term funding requirement of about $100 billion this year. About 20 per cent of their overall funding is sourced offshore.”

So how low will the RBA cash rate go in 2012? My tip? Three rate reductions that will see the cash rate sit at 3.25 per cent by the end of the year.  On April 9 2009, the RBA dropped the cash rate to 3.00 per cent so I can’t see it dropping below that. We need to remember that in Australia, approximately one third of households rent, the other third have a mortgage and the final third own without a mortgage.

So let’s look at what interest rates are doing in the USA and the United Kingdom – the answer is simple zero.

I laughed when I read Jordan Wirsz’ critique of the Australian real estate market which predicted a 60 per cent home value capitulation.  It just can’t happen (unless we have a nuclear war). Three years ago the American property market was so weak, the US Federal Reserve cut the official interest rate to zero. This week it announced that it plans to keep interest rates at near zero until the end of 2014.

Then we have the United Kingdom which will host the 2012 Olympics. It should be noted that every country that hosts an Olympics goes into recession. The exceptions to the rule have been Atlanta, USA, Sydney, Australia and Beijing, China.  I can’t see the United Kingdom joining this elite club when it too, has a zero interest rate and even more debt thanks to an Olympics. Barcelona, Spain and Greece have never recovered from when they hosted the Olympics.

At this juncture, I have Steve Keen and Jordan Wirsz leading the Australian real estate markets Dumb and Dumber Award and this is just our first edition for 2012. Nothing more than a cry for attention.

So how did the Mosman market fare in 2011? We will cover that in next week’s edition.

Source: Domain Property Monitors

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market December– 107
• Number of houses on the market this week – 102
• Number of apartments on the market December – 100
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 112

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market December – 15
• Number of houses on the market this week – 18
• Number of apartments on the market December – 20
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 17

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market December – 12
• Number of houses on the market this week – 13
• Number of apartments on the market December – 79
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 66

Over the break the number of Mosman houses on the market dropped to 83 and peaked on November 10 with 168. We don’t expect to see the number of houses on the market go much higher than 120 in February – it will be a very tight trading market in the first quarter of 2012.

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate – Click Here

For this week’s open for inspections – Click Here

Dysfunctional politicians will share the limelight in 2012.  As well, we have a Carbon and Mining Tax being introduced from July 1. The Poker Machine pre-commitment has been axed which should not come as any great surprise.  It was never going to see the light of day!

The polls will be fascinating, with many wondering just how low the Prime Minister’s approval rating can fall.   I’ll have a go and tip 24!

Great to be back and we’ll  go all the way to December 14.  Thanks for joining us again.

Cheers ^__^

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3.02.12Robert Simeon5 Comments »

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2011 has been a year of ‘follow the bouncing ball’ and for some it has become an obsession. Our fixation and theories on things beyond our control has lead to short term paralysis! As a result, our long-term judgment is clouded. Our economy continues to track well with miners and households drive recovery as GDP growth exceeds Treasury forecasts. It actually grew 1 per cent in the September quarter and is recording near Asian rates of economic growth on the back of massive resource projects and strong household spending.

This week, we also had valid arguments as to why the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should not cut rates although it makes better sense to read the October RBA – Monetary Policy Decision where the cash rate remained unchanged at 4.75 per cent. Next read the December RBA – Monetary Policy Decision where the cash rate was lowered another 25 basis points from November to now sit at 4.25 per cent. It is quite amusing that the RBA announced it would be effective from 7 December 2011. A bit of trivia: since December 18 1990 – the RBA has cut the cash rate five times and increased it four times at its December meetings.

Silence from our four big banks was deafening until one day after the effective date of 7 December NAB joins ANZ in matching RBA rate cut when (reluctantly) Westpac and the CBA brought up the tail. The reason why? It’s simple: by delaying the announcement to pass on the full interest rate cut, they receive an extra $5.6 million in pre–tax profit for every day of silence. A purely commercial decision (albeit short term) that gives journalists and social media a field day of ‘bank bashing’ that over time, can cause customer revolt.

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It would not be a complete edition of Virtual Realty News unless we were spoilt by the brilliance of Tim Mooney who is in my opinion one of this country’s greatest photographers. He has made soaring through our skies and capturing amazing photographic images, an art form.

Australia is suffering from shark alarm syndrome. The alarm sounds and swimmers leave the water! The next day they are back swimming without a care. The difference with the economy is that the daily shark alarms are based on assumptions, not sightings.

ANZ shifts to monthly rates review where they are now set to sever the long–standing link between official interest rates set by the RBA and the rates customers pay on their mortgage. This decision questions the relevance of the RBA, if banks are to decide independently, what their cash rate will be. This has the potential to become very ugly and I see ‘bank bashing’ alive and well in 2012. On the one hand we will have bank advertising campaigns of those warm and fuzzy happy family moments and on the other, journalists and social media beating the living daylights out of their reputations. The latter will win hands down!

Funniest online fight of the week goes to Business Spectator when Alan Kohler wrote – Wake up and smell a budget stinker which brought on a reply by the ‘World’s Greatest Treasurer’ Not a shocker, not bozos. The conclusion I drew, is that what Wayne Swan says, bears absolutely no resemblance to what he writes. So Treasury must have written the response. I still believe Alan Kohler is on the money.

So let’s review the Mosman housing market for 2011 as compared to previous years. How do believe it performed, given all the adverse economic commentary. Before you read on, do you think it was up or down?

Source: Domain Property Monitors

Mosman House Results 2010

• Total Number Offered – 289
• Total Number Sold – 233
• Total Value Sold – $499,283,500
• Private Treaty – 193
• Auction – 40
• Clearance Rate – 25 per cent

Mosman House Results 2011

• Total Number Offered – 307*
• Total Number Sold – 248*
• Total Value Sold – $515,676,000
• Private Treaty – 198
• Auction – 50
• Clearance Rate – 29 per cent

*many sales yet to be recorded/registered so this will increase

Let’s now look at the median and average prices.

• 2010 Mosman House Median Price – $2,250,000
• 2011 Mosman House Median Price – $2,240,000
• 2010 Mosman Average House Price – $2,684,319
• 2011 Mosman Average House Price – $2,658,123

If we go back to the RBA December Monetary Policy Decision, the Governor Glenn Stevens, said “Growth in the global economy has moderated this year after a strong performance in 2010.” So it is interesting to read the Economic and housing predictions for 2012: Craig James. “With the benefit of hindsight it is clear that our economic and financial forecasts were overly optimistic. “ That may be the case however it is not reflective in the 2011 Mosman house sales results.

I can’t emphasise enough that the pulse of our property markets is best defined by weekly sales activity and this week, twenty properties in Mosman found new owners. In mathematical terms, that equates to just 2.2 per cent of Mosman’s 4,900 (approx) houses on the market and that number is reducing on a weekly basis.

Source: Domain Property Monitors

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 118
• Number of houses on the market this week – 107
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 111
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 106

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 14
• Number of houses on the market this week – 14
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 25

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 14
• Number of houses on the market this week – 13
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 93
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 89

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate – Click Here

For this week’s open for inspections – Click Here

Steve, Rich, I and our brilliant RWM team, thank you for your fantastic patronage to our Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) business model. Our subscriber sales sit on $1,024,767,720, the Australian record for real estate online sales. It has been our absolute pleasure to have you join us each week, in what has been a most turbulent year.

However, I don’t believe our property market can compete with the expected turbulence in Canberra in 2012, with Julia Gillard and her totally incompetent government at the forefront. Kevin Rudd will challenge, so expect some amazing theatrics where self-preservation will come to the fore!

2012 will be our twelfth year of Virtual Realty News.

Have a relaxed and fantastic Christmas and New Year.

My final Virtual Realty News thought for 2011. What a pity our economy doesn’t grow as fast as our children!

Virtual Realty News will return on January 20, 2012.

Cheers ^__^

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9.12.11Robert Simeon13 Comments »

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I’m not sure which quote will go down as the dumbest in 2011. Our Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, was the orator of the two that I believe win hands down. The first “there will be no carbon tax under the government that I lead” we all know what happened with that. The second is “the Government remains committed to returning the budget to surplus by 2012 – 13.”

The latter quote was succinctly critiqued by Future Fund chairman David Murray who hit out at the Australian government – Murray slams Gillard’s crisis response: report. Mr Murray told The Australian that the Labor government’s “surprise” carbon and mining taxes were putting Australia’s reputation with international investors at risk at a very delicate time, warning that Australia’s 20 years of continuous growth could come to an end. “I would have thought what’s going on with Europe – even what’s happened to the currency in recent times – would tell us that it can end. Yet there’s no entrenched realisation that this is a very risky position that we are in.”

The reason the Government remains committed to returning the budget to surplus by 2012 – 13 is simple. It doesn’t want the Opposition to run advertising campaigns prior to the next election in 2013, saying that the Labor government is incapable of managing our economy.

BUY PRINT

Budget predictions turned from bad to worse when the ‘World’s Greatest Treasurer’, Wayne Swan, released his Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) where the forecasts of a $22.600 billion blister predicted in May had blown out to $37.100 billion in November. This prompted an avalanche of attacks (understandably) at the government’s economic credibility. Swan’s pursuit of surplus branded ‘madness’ to put this into perspective after the May budget Alan Kohler wrote on his Business Spectator website BUDGET 2011: On a wing and a prayer. As quick as a flash I eagerly awaited Mr Kohler’s response to the MYEFO: Budget for a fool’s paradise and Wake up for a budget stinker – I loved this observation “Economic growth for 2012 – 13, about which nobody has the faintest clue, has been reduced by 13 per cent to 3.25 per cent. Revenue for that year has been reduced by just 1.7 per cent.”

Over to the ‘World’s Greatest Treasurer’ – Surplus sends message to world: Swan “At a time of heightened global instability, our fiscal discipline here needs to send a message to the world” – the treasurer is now delusional. What is missing is that if the budget is not in surplus by 2012 -13 a resignation will be immediately tendered – no chance of that happening. The graph below identifies Wayne Swan’s bread and surpluses trick I take exception to being treated like a fool.

Stephen Koukoulas wrote on his economics, financial markets and politics blog: Fascinating Fiscal Facts – Who’s addicted to spending and taxing?

• Total government receipts (tax, dividends, fees and the like) was 21.6 % of GDP in 2010 – 11, the lowest since 1973 – 74 when Frank Crean was Treasurer.
• The tax to GDP[ ratio fell to 20.0% in 2010 – 11, the lowest since 1978 – 79 and is a whopping 4.2% of GDP below the record tax to GDP ratio raked in by the Howard government in 2004 – 05 and 2005 – 06. That’s a lesser tax take of around that was taken tax payers during the peak period of the Howard government. As mentioned elsewhere, it is easy to register a budget surplus when you tax the living daylights out of the population.
• Real government payments> (spending) will rise by an average of less than 0.1% per annum in the 3 years to 2012 – 13, the weakest 3 yearly spending growth since the mid to late 1980’s under the Hawke/Keating Government. Never once did the Howard Government deliver a cut in real government spending – in fact real spending grew by a thumping 3.5% per annum for the last five years of the Howard government.
• Payments ( spending> will be 23.6% of GDP in 2012 – 13 around 1.5% of GDP below the average of the last 30 years. In the 12 Howard Government Budgets, spending to GDP averaged 24.2% of GDP: and only in 3 years out of 12 of the Howard Government was the spending to GDP ratio lower than the Gillard Government is projecting for 2012 – 13.
• The 4.3% of GDP turnaround in the Budget balance in the 3 years to 2012 – 13 (from a deficit of 4.2% to a surplus of 0.1%) is the most rapid turn in the fiscal position on record.

We keep reading house prices at risk from Europe crisis so no relief for the 8 biggest losses on Mermaid Beach’s Millionaire’s Row show no post – GFC recovery in sight. A home in Hedges Avenue (sold in 2007 for $17.500 million) has resold for $7.700 million, meaning the price dropped by about $50,000 each week over the four year ownership. In Mosman Billionaire Oatley wine family snaps up Kahala for the best of Balmoral’s boating facilities. The owner paid $22.500 million for the home in 2007 and we estimate it would have re – sold for approximately $18.500 million.

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In the boom (n) times the top – end properties show the fastest price appreciation where today – It’s an affluent housing correction: Christopher Joye. Mosman is no exception to this rule although we are observing some interesting property market machinations. Another very strong week of sales evidence in Mosman and we can expect this momentum to continue through to Christmas. If we then look at the number of houses in Mosman on the market there is an interesting pattern emerging.

On September 29 2011, there were 106 houses on the market, so watch the weekly pattern since then. 115, 133, 147, 147, 168, 136, 134 and this week 118.

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This shows finally, that demand is meeting supply which, in my humble opinion, is a most positive sign. Prices can’t go down if stock levels continue to decline. That can only happen when supply far exceeds demand and we are not seeing that as the numbers indicate.

Source: Domain Property Monitors

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 134
• Number of houses on the market this week – 118
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 118
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 111

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 15
• Number of houses on the market this week – 14
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 31
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 30

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 15
• Number of houses on the market this week – 14
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 100
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 93

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate – Click Here

For this week’s open for inspections – Click Here

It’s been a brilliant year for our Members of Parliament – massive pay rise for MP’s, but travel perks on way out. Last week the ‘shock market’ identified a losing streak shaves $80b off shares only to see on Thursday Australian stocks soar in global rally.

Somewhat reminiscent of the ‘World’s Greatest Treasurer’s’ – Fudge –it 2011.

Next week –our final edition for 2011.

Cheers ^__^

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2.12.11Robert Simeon1 Comment »

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Another strange week where the policy makers in reality, would struggle to run a school fete. So step right up, it’s all about hoopla and hostilities. It started with the peculiar (rhymes with Julia) announcement that America was taking out marina space so that it can play battleships and soldiers in the Pacific. So it did not take long for announcements to take front and centre – Obama needs to confront Chinese rather than niggle from the sidelines.

Then surprise, surprise China issues economic warning over US ties in Asia where it became pretty obvious that cosying up to the US is fine, but our economic destiny lies with China. Indonesia was not that happy either with this announcement so as quick as a flash Hercules to the rescue as Gillard’s peace offering over US troop build up concerns four C – 130 Hercules worth an estimated $30,000,000 are donated to the Indonesian government as a softener. Australia will now have to replace them and it will cost a lot more than $30,000,000. Hey money’s no object!

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Then we had to endure a messy mining tax deal sealed in the early hours when it became most apparent that the mining tax outcomes: everyone’s a loser. With many left shaking their heads in total disbelief, Alan Kohler wrote in Business Spectator – mourning Gillard’s mining disaster. “Australia’s effort to levy extra taxes on mining companies has been an unmitigated debacle, capped by the passage early this morning of the Minerals Resource Rent Tax with a further last – minute compromise. It is one of the great lose – lose outcomes. We can only hope the Senate knocks it back.”

Which then became personal NSW’s $900 million mine shaft – Julia Gillard punishes for Barry O’Farrell’s carbon tax offsets. So NSW now appears to be the only state set to be punished after Barry O’Farrell raised royalties by $900 million over three years to offset the cost of the carbon tax. The “world’s greatest treasurer “, Wayne Swan, wrote to Mike Baird warning that he will also be excluded from future infrastructure funding if he does not back down.

Little wonder consumer confidence is down and this resonates through the property markets.

No doubt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is monitoring this closely and my school of thought is that the cash rate will be further reduced by -0.25 per cent when it meets next month, with another drop in February 2012. This weekend will be the greatest Litmus Test with Melbourne and Sydney ready for spring’s only super Saturday. During the global financial crisis (GFC) Melbourne and Sydney still managed to present three or four super Saturday’s so it will be interesting to monitor the 1,000 auctions in Melbourne and 650 in Sydney this coming weekend. That four letter word SOLD (at best) may be heard 825 times.

Housing recovery to begin in first quarter of 2012, but headlines won’t tell us until later: Christopher Joye given first – home buyers to drive 2012 housing recovery: BIS Shrapnel’s Angie Zigomanis.

Why house prices should recover in 2012: Craig James which is a sound argument that I have been presenting all year. “The housing market is constantly in a tug – o – war between two factors – demand and supply. And really it doesn’t get simpler than that. If there is a limited number of properties for sale and plenty of keen, cashed – up buyers then prices are almost certainly going to be bid up. Similarly if there is an abundance of property on the market and buyers are cautious – preferring to take time to find the ‘right’ home – then prices are more likely to ease.”

We publish the Mosman housing barometer each week so, bearing in mind that Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses ,it is abundantly clear that prices are about to go up given that just 2.7 per cent of available Mosman houses are on the market today.

Source: Domain Property Monitors

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 136
• Number of houses on the market this week – 134
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 118
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 118

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 16
• Number of houses on the market this week – 15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 34
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 31

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 15
• Number of houses on the market this week – 15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 101
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 100

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate – Click Here

For this week’s open for inspections – Click Here

I did chuckle this week when I read Europe’s $287bn carbon ‘waste’: UBS report “Swiss banking giant UBS says European Union’s emissions trading scheme has cost the continent’s consumers $287 billion for “almost zero impact” on cutting carbon emissions, and has warned that the EU’s carbon pricing is on the verge of a crash next year.” Shock horror – Labor dismisses UBS emissions report.

So our Parliament in shock as Speaker resigns which did not come as a great surprise given Speaker deal boosts Labor’s position but tarnishes PM.

The problem for the Gillard government is that it can’t count – Govt’s budget surplus hope over: Deloitte. The reality being “in his latest Budget Monitor, Deloitte Access Economics director Chris Richardson said while that outcome would be politically “horrendous”, a surplus next year was a line drawn in the sand drawn by politicians not economists.” So it will be a case of no Labor surplus delivered since 1989/90 again.

Rest assured, Wayne Swan is the “world’s greatest Treasurer”. I will leave you with this:

If Australia is the lucky country, how come Spain, Italy and Greece are getting a new Prime Minister?

Cheers ^__^

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25.11.11Robert Simeon7 Comments »

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Albeit a brief visit (28 hours), it is not that often that the world’s most powerful identity lands on our shores where by the sounds of things Australia is set to become the fifty third State of America. With America’s future lies with Asia – Pacific region, Obama says where in an historic address to the Australian Parliament “As President, I have therefore made a deliberate and strategic decision – as a Pacific nation, the United States will play a larger role and long – term role in shaping this region and its future – by upholding core principles and in close partnership with our allies and friends”. He went on to say the region was crucial to US interests, as the world’s fastest growing region – Obama takes aim at China in new Asian world order.

For those who missed the live speech here is the text of Obama’s speech to Parliament I watched it live and I must admit that it was most impressive as he provided an insightful vision as to what lies ahead. Although Australia’s most irrelevant political party didn’t agree as Greens fury at US build – up which should not come as a great surprise. They should stick to just planting trees.

It has not been a great week for the Greens with Julia Gillard’s backflip on uranium exports to India announcement. Although it will be interesting to watch if this fractures the Greens/ALP relationship?

BUY PRINT

Storm clouds over Europe, but sun is shining elsewhere “The media’s great strength is the speed with which they can bring us myriad details about the latest happening in Greece, Italy or anywhere else. Unfortunately, their great weakness is their inability to digest all that information and summarise what it means. The closest they go is in relaying the opinions of 101 supposed experts from Greece, Britain, America or anywhere else. Listen to more than one or two and you’re soon none the wiser.”  The long and the short of this is that consumer sentiments in Australia have adopted a short trem positioning and not a long term outlook.

Euro crash will scatter debris far and wide – we need to watch the road which prompted “The World’s Greatest Treasurer” to declare ‘Get your act together’, Swan tells Europe. When it became reality that Eurozone third quarter GDP suggests bloc is sliding into recession. Gross domestic product in the 17 – nation eurozone grew 0.6 per cent at an annualised rate during the third quarter, according to figures from the European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat. The weakest expansion since the region exited recession more than two years ago and well below growth rates registered in the US and Japan. The eurozone was spared no favours when the Greek economy fell 5.2 per cent in the third quarter.

The problem is quite simple: French banks are among the largest holders of Italian debt.

On the home front consumer confidence revives after rate cut which would explain the recent spring surge blooms as home buyers dive in. So it is not new money in our property markets when a press release from the Mortgage & Finance Association of Australia announced “first home buyers” have little confidence in the Australian economy, as they baulk at property purchases and hoard their cash.”

Reasons for delaying their entry into the housing market were:

• 72.1 per cent said they were worried about the level of debt home ownership would require
• 44 Per cent said they were delaying purchasing a first home due to economic conditions
• 20.5 per cent of first home buyers felt that property prices are too high

So the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps mum on future rate moves although I believe the RBA will cut the cash rate again next month so that they can separate Australia from the Euro crisis and set a solid consumer platform going into 2012. I’m not that concerned by all the rhetoric emanating from our central bank when RBA takes negative line on multiple rate cuts and RBA board split on rate cut. The reality is that the RBA sees housing market as subdued not should we dismiss Economists and traders fighting a false forecasting war: Christopher Joye.

Was it the ‘Obama Factor’ that triggered the greatest trade volumes seen in 2011 this week for our demographic markets? There is not a single market in the world economy that does not fall under the economic equation of Demand V Supply.

So closely examine these figures we extrapolate each week for our readership.

Source: Domain Property Monitors

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market last week – 168
• Number of houses on the market this week – 136
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 138
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 118

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market last week – 21
• Number of houses on the market this week – 16
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 44
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 34

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market last week – 21
• Number of houses on the market this week – 15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 136
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 101

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate – Click Here

For this week’s open for inspections – Click Here

This is anecdotal evidence that all of our property markets are engaging again and these statistics which are the most conclusive in 2011, prove that our property markets have turned. It will be fascinating to see next week’s results to see if this trending continues – I believe it will. What we are identifying is that our expats are now returning it ain’t working: Aussies abandon the ailing UK job market.

So Julia Gillard closing gap on Abbott: poll although her days are numbered given Bill Shorten firms as PM’s successor. Although the greatest problem they face is over those one – armed bandits ALP carries pokie burden – which won’t go away anytime soon. On a funnier side SLASH AND BURN: Swan plans to cut billions in spending so I assume he is referring to focus groups where the Gillard government spent $33 million last year on market research. They should be reading newspapers although that premise is quickly dismissed given Gillard looking to blame media: Hartigan.

Whilst on the media I have long argued here that newspapers can’t charge readers for online content so I was not surprised to read in Business Spectator when Alan Kohler wrote Will Fairfax break the paywall. As you would be aware you have to register to now read (The Australian) online as Rupert Murdoch proposes that Australian’s should pay a subscription to read his papers online. Online is based on the premise of eyeballs and third party advertising where the more eyeballs the more revenue. The Australian behind a paywall, and so far the three month trial has seen its page impressions decline by 25 per cent – far less than might have been expected. Actually, and certainly less than its traffic will decline once it starts charging.”

No wonder Fairfax Media is reconsidering its online position. The problem for News Ltd and Fairfax Media is that they are still “newspaper thinkers” who believe (incorrectly) that you can still double – dip with advertisers and the readership.

Goes to show you can never assume.

Cheers ^__^

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18.11.11Robert Simeon8 Comments »

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The economic roller coaster was travelling at high speed this week with the “shock market” at a three year high share price surge adds $42b to market’s value. For the moment, it would appear (based on these results) that the much awaited consumer ‘ring of confidence’ is again smiling on these markets. Despite a focus on financial markets it was refreshing to note that Sydney’s still as safe as houses where data has revealed that the toughest residential market in Australia is still the best performing city over the past year. Compared to the rest of the capital cities, RP Data Rismark reported that property prices in Sydney actually increased 0.3 per cent in the year ending August.

It should be emphasised that most Australians read more into bad news which clearly overshadows those ‘good news weeks’. The 2010 General Social Survey found that 78 per cent of Australians were satisfied, 43 per cent reported being pleased or delighted with their lives, while 34 per cent gave a more moderate appraisal, saying they were ‘mostly satisfied’. Based on that assumption, we can then conclude that most Aussies are satisfied with their lives.

Alan Kohler was succinct when he wrote on Business Spectator – Flagging down a recession “Markets are falling now because the US, and probably the world, is tipping into recession once again.” Why? “That’s because a recession “isn’t just a statistical event. It’s a vicious cycle that must run its course.” Australia has caught a cold from what’s happening in the US and Europe – not pneumonia! Although we should be constantly reminded that we live in a society based on excuses.

BUY PRINT

To be expected RBA extends rate pause although more interesting was the Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy decision which signals Reserve puts rate cut on the menu. I doubt very much that this will happen when they next meet on Melbourne Cup day, given a clear indication that for the moment, they are keeping their powder dry. Our banks remain strong and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) showed that $27 billion in deposits were channelled into our banking system in August. Cash deposits swell amid global worries and the entire system saw a two per cent lift in deposits to $1.42 trillion.

One should never let the facts get in the way of a good story – too many people and not enough houses. Despite a collapse in Sydney’s housing affordability in 2010, due to a 20 per cent increase in house prices in eighteen months and seven increases in interest rates, Sydney is leading the nation’s housing recovery as demand pressures continue to intensify. A crash in property prices? Don’t bet on it so it is now time for Sydney to shed its housing funk. At this juncture, I would add that our Mosman market remains healthy, wealthy and buyers not wise as it will be going up not down. Unlike the US – when you buy a house you don’t get another one free!

We read with great sadness yesterday, about the passing of Steve Jobs: the man who changed the way we live. I’m also a tragic admirer, so it was understandable that mourners flood websites, social media with tributes to Steve Jobs. His death provoked the biggest online reaction of any in recent history with Twitter figures expected to come in at 10,000 tweets per second. To put this into context, the Japan earthquake and tsunami in March recorded 5,530 tweets per second and the British royal wedding recorded 3,966 tweets per second. I read two notable comments about Steve Jobs – the best Twitter comment “RIP Steve Jobs. You left your mark on our desks, on our ears and in our hands.” And “Jobs concerned himself with making computers work the way people expected them to rather than making people learn how the computer wanted them to work.” Which takes me to why the Gillard governments NBN roll – out will be a dismal failure.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest June 2011 internet activity revealing:

• At the end of June 2011, there were 10.9 million internet subscribers in Australia (excluding internet connections through mobile handsets). This represents annual growth of 14.8% and an increase of 4.4% since the end of December 2010.
• The phasing out of dial – up continued with 95% of internet connections being broadband. Australians continued to access increasingly faster download speeds, with 87% of access connections offering a download speed of 1.5 Mbps or greater.
• Mobile wireless internet (excluding mobile handset) connections (44%) now exceed Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) connections (41%) in Australia. Mobile wireless (excluding mobile handset connections) was the fastest growing internet access technology in actual numbers, increasing from 4.2 million in December 2010 to 4.8 million in June 2011.

So Julia Gillard wants to persist with underground fibre – optic cable installations? I will be writing an article on Property Observer to be published next Monday about this taxpayer catastrophe which is fast looking like Australia’s all time greatest waste at $50 billion plus.

Mosman house vendors are ever so gradually testing the market again with the number of new properties (houses) entering the market this week, increasing by 8.5 per cent.

MOSMAN – 2088

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 106
• Number of houses on the market this week – 115
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 83
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 78

CREMORNE – 2090

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 15
• Number of houses on the market this week – 16
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 36
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 34

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 16
• Number of houses on the market this week – 15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 76
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 80

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

You can put your house on the NBN being an abysmal failure – so it is understandable that the Government will be the most surprised. Telstra’s new 4G network is boasting internet speeds 25x faster than the 3G so the NBN roll –out is fast looking like Australia’s greatest ever tax payer debacle.

Cheers ^__^

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7.10.11Robert Simeon9 Comments »

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Just don’t rely on your global satellite – its accuracy can easily get you lost! We are now travelling at two speeds and there is no turning back. After all, we are most fortunate to live in the world’s fastest growing economy and should note that house prices merely treading water and unlikely to dive.

This week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issues global recession warning that the US and the eurozone are at increased risk of falling back into recession, a move which it says could threaten other economies worldwide. IMF chief Christine Lagarde, said the economic crisis in developed economies had entered a “dangerous new phase” worsened by “feeble political leadership”. No she was not referring to Australia’s very own Fort Fumble!

I then went to Business Spectator to get an Australian interpretation of what the IMF was telling us where immediately, I found fools rush in by Alan Kohler. “Reading the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook this morning, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that the challenges facing global economic policymakers are simply too much for their brains to manage. The need for massive budget cuts while supporting economic growth, as well as simultaneous loose and tight monetary policy to support the banking system while controlling inflation would be difficult enough if the world had a crop of high quality leaders working together for the global good. As it is we have a bunch of maniacs and fools operating in largely dysfunctional political and administrative structures. As the IMF says: “The risks are clearly to the downside.”

Now keep your eyes on that Rocky Road. There is a beaming light at the end of the tunnel.

BUY PRINT

That light? Wayne Swan named world’s best Treasurer by Euromoney magazine or as John Symond put it – “it must have been a pretty weak field”. Charlie Aitken wrote on his “Ringing The Bell” blog “if Wayne Swan’s the best in the world, it does partly explain the mess we find ourselves in.” Probably the most accurate analogy was that this is the Steven Bradbury Award of Finance Ministers.

Let’s also congratulate some of the past Euromoney Award Winners.

• Euromoney 2006 Best Investment Bank – Lehman Brothers (Gone 2008)
• Euromoney 2006 Best Equity House – Morgan Stanley (Bailed out 2008)
• Euromoney 2006 Best at Risk Management – Bear Sterns (Gone 2008)
• Euromoney 2006 Best at Investor Services – Citigroup (Bailed out 2008)

Honoured as the world’s best treasurer, Wayne Swan is set to give advice to G20 leaders which is like me being selected at five eighth to replace Darren Lockyer for the Broncos sudden death play -off against Manly tonight. Wayne Swan is now speeding down Rocky Road to accept his award although his Howard/Costello budget inheritance may well be lost in the fanfare.

Another week of financial market fear factor: our dollar dives in black day due entirely to the bleak assessment of the US economy as shares plunge below 4000 points. The US Federal Reserve unveiled a $US400 billion stimulus plan which in itself is controversial, with many believing that the troubled US economy needs to self – correct without stimulus. What is happening resonates through our markets as home buyer confidence declining more rapidly: Glenworth. It is much easier to address confidence as against a dysfunctional economy which is not the case in Australia.

To the Australian home front, where I see the biggest problem facing our property markets is centric to confidence as against economic woes. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) taught us the need to concentrate on balance sheets over easy credit and carrying far too much debt. Australian households have shifted to a much stronger savings regime – demand shifting to services: RBA.

Rich watching their pennies after almost losing their assets and income which clearly demonstrates the levels Australian households will go to so that they can protect their castle. Sydney housing market will weather economic storm: John Symond which was backed up by we can handle this crisis, Commonwealth Bank. At the end of the day the markets too pessimistic on Australia: RBA.

I love this graph – Macquarie Economics Research noted:

• Consumer sentiment was stronger than expected in September, bouncing 8.1%, following sharp declines in confidence in both July and August. All components of the index improved with expectations of economic conditions over the next 12 months rising by 16.6%. More important, were the 11.2% improvement in households’ perception of their current finances and the 9.5% improvement in expectations for the state of their own finances in 12 months time. This is significant, given that consumption generally follows households’ expectations of their own finances rather than expectations of activity levels in the economy as a whole. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that both of these indices remain 12% below the long – term trend.

Absent a total meltdown, sharp rate cuts unlikely: Christopher Joye which was later reinforced by RBA deputy governor Ric Battellino – Reserve Bank kills rate – cut hope. Predictions of rates dropping to 3.25 per cent in twelve months time, won’t come to fruition and I see this as good news. Why? Simply because Australia’s predicament does not in the least resemble the financial woes that have infected the US and European economies. What we are lacking is that ‘ring of confidence’.

If it does get ugly, our RBA has plenty of room to move on the cash rate – much like March 2008 when it dropped the cash rate from 7.25 per cent down to 3.00 per cent in April 2009. This time around we have the cash rate sitting at 4.75 per cent (since November 2010). If the RBA was slashing the rate, it would be clear that our economy was in serious trouble.

And don’t forget, we have the world’s greatest Treasurer!

MOSMAN – 2088

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 111
• Number of houses on the market this week – 116
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 93
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 86

CREMORNE – 2090

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 14
• Number of houses on the market this week – 16
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 33

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

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• Number of houses on the market last week – 12
• Number of houses on the market this week – 13
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 80
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 78

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Cheers ^__^

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