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A hypothetical Mosman forecast: (not to be read by the faint heated) – walking your Labrador could soon see you walking on private property. Remember the “once upon a time” analogies? Time brings change – and those picturesque ‘rivers of gold’ (public sanctuaries) are a great starting place.

Sydney population to top 6m in 2036 according to a report compiled by the NSW Planning Department. It forecasts a 40 per cent gain from 4.3 million in 2006. Based on data compiled from the 2006 census, the population of NSW will increase to 9.1 million which is a scary thought, when Fort Crumble (NSW Government) does not even come close to meeting present day planning demands for infrastructure, transport, schools, hospitals and roads which are currently in gridlock. More importantly Fort Crumble is broke!

So let’s look into the property crystal ball Sydney suburbs ready to boom Fort Crumble has turned its attention now to transport in the south–west, rather than the north–west. The population of the top 10 local areas, will increase by more than 50 per cent – Camden, Liverpool, Burwood, Auburn, Wollondilly, Sydney, Wyong, Campbelltown, Baulkham Hills, and Strathfield. So south-west is up by 113 per cent and north–west up 52 per cent. Metro cost more than Labor admitted which should come as no surprise. To meet these unprecedented demands, governments on all three tiers will jump into a dash for cash given they are all entrenched in budget deficit. And don’t forget the huge injection of green shoots for the building industry, the economy and increased tax receipts.

BUY PRINT
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Middle Head is arguably Australia’s most sought after real estate and Mosman’s “Jewel in the Crown”.
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So what can we expect? The greatest sell–off of (open space) land for residential development and Mosman (given its abundance of foreshore land) would become a major revenue raiser for funding sustainability. The ‘posh’ will utter, gosh! A strong possibility that Mosman sea scapes could resemble those from Whale Beach to Palm Beach“. Of course governments will say ‘it is all in the name of economic progress’. Simply put – we may believe we are the custodians of open space and even though we don’t have title to this lifestyle privilege, money talks and many areas that are untouched, could lose their virginity!

We now find that one in four NSW councils is on the brink of being unable to pay for essential services – Gone to pot: councils on brink of slashing services. We are already hearing murmurs that some Councils are looking at selling off public golf courses and replacing them with housing estates.

The Municipality of Mosman (currently) has just under 5000 houses so it would be fair to assume that just like other growth areas it too must expand by up to 25 per cent (another 1250 homes). For this to happen (hypothetically) we would see a new housing estate created on Georges Heights and Middle Head which are prime development areas as to Bradleys Head and Clifton Gardens

Cliff top land value sales using Burran and Hopetoun Avenues comparables on Middle Head would deliver sales from $7,000,000 to $15,000,000 + per block (let’s average each block out at $10,000,000): the governments would love these revenues to assist funding pressures. Working on the premise that HMAS Penguin would become a vacant block from Chowder Bay through Middle Head to Balmoral vacant land sales would deliver hundreds and hundreds of multi – million dollar sales. Not to forget also, a huge injection to Mosman Council revenues, courtesy of additional Council rates from subdivisions that could create another 1000 + houses. It may never happen – but it would be a brave person to rule out such a brazen move (otherwise called progress!)

The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) announced his newly created portfolio of Minister for Population this week and as quick as flash Population Minister Tony Burke says migrants should go bush. An interesting debut? Tony Abbott backs a debate on population levels ”Let’s face it; Sydney and Melbourne in particular are choking on their own traffic.” Whilst a population debate is necessary, we are not hearing anything about (more importantly) an infrastructure debate!

Malcolm Turnbull prompted Macquarie Street whispers, when he announced that he was leaving Federal politics A plea to Malcolm Turnbull – your State needs you wrote The Punch. “If anyone can smash his way through the paralysis which grips NSW politics it is Turnbull. In the absence of a mercy rule, NSW voters currently face a battle between the legally blonde and the legally bland. There’s Kristina Keneally, who despite assuring us she’s “nobody’s puppet, nobody’s girrrrrl,” was slotted in by the factional bosses in a vacuous marketing exercise which has nothing to do with policy and everything to do with personality.” Clue: NSW Labor out to buy next election.

The Emperor came in for a touch – up Kevin Rudd’s $3.2 bn health and hospital funding favours Labor seats and Rudd’s new challenge: fix schools so the pains continued Blunders becoming harder to defend and Schools chief orders checks on 260 projects.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) notched up its fifth 25 basis – point rate hike in seven months taking the cash rate to 4.25 per cent – Good times sting as interest rates rise. Given we are in an election year ,The Emperor would have been somewhat perplexed when he read Housing stress may bring political pain. Economic side – kick Wayne Swan delivered these political pearlers “I know that is cold comfort for a lot of families and a lot of people in businesses,” he said. Then “rates are now at the level that they were when the Liberal Party imposed on Australia 10 rate rises in a row so rates are still at historically low levels.”

Wayne, so what you are saying is that the last five interest rate rises are your doing, given that your Government is in power? It has been well documented that the cash rate will return to 5.50 per cent so, Wayne, that would then make it 10 all. Doh!

Tourism Australia announced its new tag line There’s nothing like it superseding “Where the bloody hell are you?” Why do they continually write about politicians?

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So do you think our treasured foreshore reserves will be turned into a residential subdivision? What would such a plan do to top – end prices? Remember, this is Australia’s most prized land. See you on our blog as I suspect this topic may break our previous record number of comments.

Subscriber sales jumped to $938,179,220 this week. We exchanged $31,000,000 in just three days, setting the highest sale in Mosman for 2010. Thank you – subscribers.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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9.04.10Robert Simeon8 Comments »

This is our final edition for 2008 and what a rollercoaster year it has been. For many an initiation and for others, a ‘here we go again’! The overriding consensus from most that we have spoken with, (and it is a wide circle of influence) is that the first six months of 2009 will be tough – but there is light at the end of the tunnel. The spruikers who said that the banks were about to release an abundance of mortgagee-in-possession sales to our Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay markets in 2008, were wrong. It never happened! They would be better served and suffer much less embarrassment if they kept their Chardonnay commentaries to themselves and concentrated on the 2009 Melbourne Cup winner (same odds).

Like this week’s Mosman real estate story where (supposedly) a vendor walked into an agency wanting to list his home (quietly). He told the agent where he lived and the agent responded “ so you are number 16? I now have in your street 14, 12 and 10, so that is a development site.” Of course, this never happened!

Newspapers accentuate these stories yet on the other hand they expect advertisers to invest in their organisations. This is why I predict that on an economies of scale basis, ‘online’ will outplay print in 2009 – an all time first. Why? Because real estate agents are tired of defending print campaigns when journalists (based on short term opinions) keep talking property markets down.

Let me say once again, that Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay has not been asked by any major lender to provide submissions to market properties in 2009 where the vendors are financially distressed. This speculation is a complete nonsense and with our dominant Mosman market share (where they always call in three or more agents), we would certainly know!

For obvious reasons we will all experience certain elements attempting to talk values down because of a vested interest. Cashed up buyers – yet in Keating’s recession where unemployment was at 11 + per cent and interest rates at 18 per cent, today’s landscape is entirely different. Today all markets correspond succinctly and correctly and (collectively), we are in a much better position to take a more educated market positioning.

The Mortgage Choice /REIA Real Estate Market Facts has reported that the Australian weighted average median house price decreased from $459,795 in the June quarter 2008 to reach $447,659 in the September quarter 2008 – a decrease of 2.6 per cent over the quarter, and an increase of 0.7 per cent over the year. The report acknowledged that while house prices fell in the September quarter, tight vacancy rates and high demand for rental properties identified that rents continued to rise in most capital cities. It should also be noted that over Christmas and the New Year we will see many expats return to our shores which means that if they don’t already own they will be market participants in sales or rentals.

For example: a Burran Avenue sale was recorded two weeks ago for reportedly $19.7(something) million. This sale was for two adjoining properties which last sold in June 2005, one for $14,000,000 and the other for $6,500,000. Total $20.500 million. On that basis these property values have dropped by just over three per cent (combined) since the June 2005 transactions.

Unemployment is rising and this week it climbed to 4.4 per cent (the highest in twelve months) when 15,600 jobs were cut in November. Such an increase obviously adds to the gloomy economic outlook which is only natural since we have just come out of an unprecedented seventeen years of economic growth. It must also be noted that Australia is still well above the 1990/91 recessionary levels which is obviously assisted by decreasing interest rates and greater fiscal stimulus which will play dominant roles in 2009 and beyond. Already, some schools of thought are that the Wall Street stock market bottomed two weeks ago. If correct, will see significant cash reserves (namely idle superannuation monies) head back into our financial markets. It should also be remembered that Australia still remains the fourth highest player in the World economy given our compulsory superannuation contributions.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported this week that home loan approvals actually rose in October 2008 ending eight months of consecutive falls – an obvious legacy of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The number of home loans seasonally adjusted, rose by 1.3 per cent compared to September 2008. October 2008 totalled $12.3 billion which represents a 2.4 per cent increase from September, investment housing increased 0.7 per cent and loans for existing homes rose 1.6 per cent which reversed the 1.3 per cent decline in September 2008.

We predict that in February the RBA will drop interest rates by a further 50 basis points which will see the cash rate sit at 3.75 per cent and by June 2009 we can see a strong argument for property players to start giving strong consideration to fixing interest rates. In 2009 we predict that the property canary will sing to the Reserve Bank Governor – cheap cheap!

Virtual Realty News (VRN) is now into its ninth year and next year in September, we celebrate our tenth anniversary and we remain confident that we will have posted one billion dollars in online subscriber sales. Our online models are certainly well positioned to meet these expectations. After all, VRN is Australia’s largest and oldest weekly real estate property E-zine.

In 2009 we expect to see some major re-distribution of advertising monies until such time as our property markets justify such expenditure. So what was previously a mandatory spend could very easily become a secondary spend as property owners (given the economic circumstances) become much more conservative with their money. 2009 will very much be a MoM (month on month) proposition as against ‘what a difference a day makes’.

So there you have our predictions – we would love to read yours? Scroll down and post in our blog.

On behalf of Steve, Richard, Marize, Mark, Jacqui, Eleanor, Gillian, Pip, Belinda, Judith, Lynn, Yana, Sharon, Rebecca, Bernadette, Alesha and Deeann we want to take this opportunity to thank you for your ongoing patronage. We wish each and every one of you a very Merry Christmas, a prosperous New Year, health and wealth in 2009 and beyond.

Cheers ^__^

Our next edition will be on 23 January 2009 when again we will go weekly until December 11 2009. Then we start all over again in 2010!

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12.12.08Robert Simeon6 Comments »