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On one hand we have a federal government and on the other, state/territory governments and today, the left hand has no idea what the right is doing. Back–flips in politics these days are nearly as frequent as another installation of a red light speeding camera on our roads – Government backs down on health GST deal. After months and months of political rhetoric Julia Gillard proposes 50 – 50 hospital deal then surprise, surprise as Tony Abbott says Julia Gillard revamped health reform package is yet another back down. Next a constitutional crisis was averted as Abbott concocts constitutional strife with crossbench offer for rural students bringing yet another back– flip as Labor backs down on youth allowance, admitting faults in scheme for regional students. This back – flip set another extraordinary political precedent given the Julia Gillard cave – in heads off crushing defeat.

Sitting well above ground, the Governor for Moolah announced to his fellow Australian shareholders that interest rates are where they should be. Unlike Fort Fumble, which is carefully manoeuvring itself from a dastardly week of failed policy capitulations, the Governor says mining the focus, not floods. On the flip– side, our Gov urges Australians to keep saving and shareholders should see that statement as a clue, given our household debt is high.We need to be realistic given nothing will stop prices soaring as an Australian Industry Group announced that the annual bill for a typical Sydney household will climb from $1,257 to $2,012 between 2009 – 10 and 2012 -13.

BUY PRINT

You can erase policy fails to keep up with the boom given the ALP is earnestly pursuing a self proclaimed renaissance – ALP’s plan to reverse membership slump would give supporters a say in pre – selections. Fascinating theatrevin Rudd takes aim at party’s faction culture; wants party’s full review made public a self-proclaimed communist Julia Gillard rejects Rudd’s call to release election review. Which no doubt would have caused face flushes when it was revealed ALP – take a Bex, Gillard tells union heavyweights who just so happen to be the anointed ones who fast tracked the demise of The Emperor – one KRudd. Somewhat riveting, in that The Emperor – Kevin Rudd takes aim at party’s culture; wants party’s full review made public a self proclaimed communist Julia Gillard rejects Rudd’s call to release election review. Which no doubt would have caused face flushes when it was revealed ALP numbers all point the wrong way.

Australia to have carbon price from July 1. 2012, Julia Gillard announces. Now hold on a moment! In the run–up to the last federal election, Gillard ruled out a carbon tax? Not much clear in Gillard and Greens carbon framework given the key differences between the Greens, Labor and the independents that still need to be resolved. Nothing has been decided, nothing has been achieved – just another announcement hence people’s revolt looms on Australian carbon tax, Tony Abbott predicts.

The show goes on and hold your seat – Infrastructure Australia has all but derailed which is an adoptive analogy for our inept, floundering and totally incompetent NSW government. “The Gillard government’s confirmation that it will contribute $2.1 billion to building the Epping – Parramatta railway line in suburban Sydney will probably not help Labor in NSW, but it has delivered a fatal blow to the credibility of Infrastructure Australia.”Labor election strategy in chaos as voters cut Keneally loose with their primary vote down to 23 per cent and getting worse – one month tomorrow until NSW goes to the polls. Not only (according to the polls) is Keneally gone, the result will be the greatest hiding in Australian electoral history. Power sale ‘will raise only $700m’ a tad down from the predicted $5 billion – I refer you back to this week’s photo by the great Tim Mooney (with a few strikes of genius).

Last week, we commenced our exclusive breakdown of Mosman house prices from 1999 to 2010. In last week’s edition of <em>Virtual Realty News</em> we covered house prices from 1999 to 2005 up to $5.000 million – here are the 2006 to 2010 results. The data has been downloaded from <em>Domain Property Data</em> and calibrated by <em>RWM Property Research.</em>

2006 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 352
• Total Value – $742,885,130
• Median Price – $1,855,000
• Average Price – $2,110,469
• Highest Price – $15,000,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 48
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 146
• House sales above $2,000,000 – 86
• House sales above $3,000,000 – 45
• House sales above $4,000,000 – 27

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 7.1 per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 48 which is approximately 13.5 per cent of total sales. The average price increased from $2,017,809 to $2,105,327. Auction clearance rates increased from 36 per cent to 40 per cent.

2007 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 356
• Total Value – $815,749,720
• Median Price – $2,165,000
• Average Price – $2,291,431
• Highest Price – $22,500,000
• Auction Clearance Rate – 57 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 28
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 126
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 111
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 53
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 38

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 7.2 per cent of houses sold. House sales up to $999,999 were 28 which is approximately 7.8 per cent of total sales. The average price increased from $2,110,469 to $2,291,431. Auction clearance rates increased from 40 per cent to 57 per cent.

2008 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 231
• Total Value – $523,725,612
• Median Price – $2,200,000
• Average Price – $2,267,210
• Highest Price –$14,700,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 35 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 25
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 83
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 71
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 30
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 22

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 4.7 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 25 which is approximately 10 per cent of sales. The average price dropped from $2,291,431 to $2,267,210. Auction clearance rates dropped from 57 per cent to 35 per cent.

2009 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 277
• Total Value – 630,499,751
• Median Price – $2,085,000
• Average Price – $2,276,172
• Highest Price – $13,200,000 (RWM)
• Auction Clearance Rate – 42 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 18
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 114
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 83
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 36

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 5.5 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 18 so 6.5 per cent sold. The average price increased marginally from $2,267,210 to $2,276,172. Auction clearance rates increased from 25 per cent to 42 per cent.

2010 – MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES TO $5,000,000

• Number of houses sold – 299
• Total Value – $704,286,155
• Median Price – $2,100,000
• Average Price – $2,355,472
• Highest Price – $12,600,000 (RWM)
• ,Auction Clearance Rate – 42 per cent
• House Sales to $999,999 – 9
• House Sales above $1,000,000 – 112
• House Sales above $2,000,000 – 86
• House Sales above $3,000,000 – 58
• House Sales above $4,000,000 – 34

RWM Research observations: Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses so 6.1 per cent of houses sold. House sales to $999,999 were 9 which is approximately 3.00 per cent of sales. In 1999 sales up to $999,999 made up 88.5 per cent of sales. The average price continued to climb ever so slowly to $2,355,472.

Next week we look at Mosman house sales above $5,000,000 from 1999 to 2010 and again we get a most interesting snapshot of how our top–end is travelling. It is doing much better than the combined efforts of Forts Crumble and Fumble.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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25.02.11Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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What we are seeing today is that a statement such as this,  generally refers to the cost of living which shows no signs of abating anytime soon. Solid economic growth still likely, index shows which is somewhat contradictory, because while  Australia can expect a solid growth rate in the first half of 2011,the annualised Westpac – Melbourne Institute growth rate is  already being revised down. With the leading index coming in at 4.6 per cent in September and remaining above the long term trend of 3.1 per cent, it should also be noted that it is well down from the 10.3 per cent index recorded in March this year.

Julia Gillard’s  Fort Fumble urgently needs an economic architect given Canberra’s delusion: the budget is the economy which now has our elected federal Government at scary cross roads – OECD takes aim at Labor policies. “Australia’s proposed mining tax is too low; the goods and services tax should be higher and extended to food, and the approach to the national broadband network conflicts with international studies.”  In a hung parliament, the words ‘looking – up’ should be  removed from political rhetoric  along with the hopeless policies that shadow the Gillard/Swan shaky leadership foundations. The problematic elephant (aside from the NBN) that constantly circles the ALP ring  of confidence is the time to clear the decks of the Rudd mistakes. This  is not likely anytime soon, as the polls are recording a revolt of disappointment which is hardly a policy affirmation for economic reforms. More voter angst!

BUY PRINT

A stunning revelation when RBA expected higher rate rises by banks based on strengthening economic activity and rising inflation which makes for interesting times and it is more than likely, that the annualised Westpac – Melbourne Institute growth rate will continue its decline. Nobody would have been surprised to read that banks’ fattened margins exposed when figures released by the Prudential Regulation Authority revealed that the banks’ average cost of funding  loans, escalated by less than the RBA cash rate in the year to June. The figures revealed that the Reserve cash rate climbed 1.36 percentage points between June quarters 2009 and 2010. The average rate by the big banks to secure funding, climbed 0.88 points. Given the banks are well ahead of the official RBA cash rate it is highly unlikely that the RBA will raise the cash rate at its next meeting  in December (the next scheduled meeting is not until February 2011). Just as interesting Reserve Bank data unfairly abused in rates debate and a strange sequence of events as banks slower to lift deposit than interest rates which would not surprise anyone.

A great read Re – regulating the banks in public view by Dr. John Hewson “While legislation to give/increase the powers of the ACCC  in relation to “price signalling” etc and bans on mortgage exit fees etc are likely to be helpful, they are, in reality, unlikely to make much substantive or sustainable difference. Look at the way other “oligopolists” such as Woolworths and Coles consistently snub their noses at the ACCC, as do the oil companies. Of course, substantial penalties and making “cartel behaviour” a criminal offence, with the risk of jail for the senior executives involved, as in some countries in the airline industry, may give such processes real teeth, but none of our political leaders have yet been prepared to go that far.”  I always enjoy reading the blog comments “Margaret Thatcher’s often repeated line, “there is no such thing as a society. Just individuals and families.” Treasurer Wayne Swan is due to release Fort Fumble’s response to the “Bank Debate” next month probably sometime between Christmas and New Year.

Probably, it will  coincide with Australia’s broadband release as Conroy defies pressure to release NBN report which (conveniently) just so happens to occur after Parliament has risen for the summer break. In a perfect Parliament, politicians who approve taxpayer funded policy initiatives that turn out to be costly “white elephants”, should immediately resign – as is generally the case in big business.  Rest easy as Prime Minister Julia Gillard vows to put fine tooth coomb through NBN on behalf of Fort Fumble, which is getting very interesting given bid to gag minister in Senate.

For example: NSW could have been $4.6b ahead if the state government (Fort Crumble) had borrowed to fund the building of all tollways built in the city. The NSW state election is due in March 2011 – Keneally welcomes Labor exodus which is actually more like a mass evacuation.  Unfortunately premier “Bambi” has resisted the lead of her fellow politicians.

Things are looking up: rents to rise as home building lags as economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel predicts renters (one third of our market) will have to get used to annual increases of between 5 to 7 per cent in Perth, Brisbane and Sydney and 3 to 5 per cent in Melbourne, Hobart and Adelaide over the next 24 to 36 months. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) identifies that building approvals fell to a 15 month low in September. Throw in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane which are in the top 10 most expensive markets in the world and you can draw two conclusions. Tax receipts from small businesses to Fort Fumble will continue to decline and the budget deficit will continue to grow as Sydney No. 2 in prime rents.

Yes, the cost of living is certainly looking up!

“There is no such thing as a society. Just individuals and families – Margaret Thatcher”

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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19.11.10Robert Simeon13 Comments »

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Ask any business owner what the key to business longevity is and nine times out of ten the answer will always be – customer service. It all started just before the running of the 150^th Melbourne Cup when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy decision.  The punters were shocked with this rate rise shock – the fourth increase in 2010. The cash rate increase was later to be described as the RBA makes pre-emptive strike, economists say. Then as quick as Americain down the Flemington track the Commonwealth Bank adds 45bp to home loan rate effective from today, citing “overall wholesale funding costs continue to increase as cheaper funding expires and is replaced with more expensive funding”. The banking stewards (otherwise known as politicians) were quick to saddle – up although opposition Treasurer Joe Hockey was already in a somewhat awkward and lonely canter.

A graph that has figured prominently in Virtual Realty News is the Household Estimates of 2007 – 08 which is the last Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) measure of Australian households that rent, own with a mortgage and own without a mortgage – which I call The Big Third Theory.

• The number that rent – 2,399,900 which equates to thirty (30) per cent.
• The number that own with a mortgage – 2,835,200 which equates to thirty six (36) per cent.
• The number that own without a mortgage – 2,679,200 which equates to thirty four (34) per cent.

Based on this anecdotal data where with each and every cash rate increase the impact affects sixty six (66) per cent or 5,079,100 Australian households. Politicians need to cease being statues.

BUY PRINT

Another Tim Mooney brilliant capture that would make a great front cover for Eastern Suburbs real estate agents’ Christmas cards – nothing beats a sensational aerial shot.

Credit card debt more common than mortgage debt and we all know that the Big Gang Theory of increased funding does not apply when they are already charging consumers around twenty (20) per cent. When the Melbourne Institute revealed their June quarter 2010 results they announced that for the first time since November 2006, credit card debt is the most common form of debt among Australian households, rather than mortgage debt. The number of households with credit card debt was 36.6 per cent, while 33.9 per cent had mortgage debt. Credit card rates should be at the very same rate as home mortgage rates.

Customer service is all about meaning business not being a mean business – The Big Gang Theory.

Joe Hockey has good idea, no – one takes notice given banks showing no rates restraint, despite massive profits so out came Joe Hockey’s Nine – Point Plan when he addressed the AIG Annual National Forum in Canberra on October 25 in Canberra – “It’s time to talk banking.” Banks, rates and regulations: who’s in charge here? As Westpac chief Gail Kelly calls for calm as anger builds over bank rate rises given the banks are wary of Hockey bandwagon. The irony being that just only last week it was Hockey who was copping the bashing when he suggested that he’d re – regulate interest rates. As Dennis Shanahan wrote in The Australian – It’s Hockey’s turn to bash Swan. “In just a few moments yesterday, Joe Hockey and the Coalition went from being buffoons to heroes. And Wayne Swan went from being economically and politically superior to being populist, ineffective and trailing the opposition Treasury spokesman on banking policy.” Out from the gates then jumped Wayne Swan flags banking reforms declaring the federal government would now announce banking reforms next month prompting Hockey “The Jockey” to demand release reform plan now – the “Big Fella” was now on a roll dining out on roasted swan.

There was still plenty happening within Fort Fumble’s home economics kitchen when Phillip Coorey from the Sydney Morning Herald revealed – Out in the cold: Rudd held fake budget meetings to stop leaks not to be confused with steamed leeks. “Kevin Rudd and his senior ministers were so suspicious of Lindsay Tanner that they used to hold fake pre – budget meetings to ensure their plans did not leak. According to accounts of meetings of the now abandoned Strategic Priorities and Budget Committee, nicknamed the gang of four, some meetings with Mr Tanner would deliberately be light on detail. After the meeting concluded and the then finance minister had left, the other three members of the committee – Mr Rudd, Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan – would reconvene and discuss their budget plans in detail.”

Lindsay Tanner is writing a book and I can’t wait to read that given the revelations say very little for Kevin Rudd’s schoolyard games amid financial crisis. I can’t ever remember reading a more damaging report about an elected Australian government’s economic credibility. I must admit that I have always been a Lindsay Tanner admirer – he was smart, to the point and definitely not a populist policy proponent.  Kevin Rudd denies holding fake budget meetings … why am I not the least surprised.

In the meantime, Australia is bathing in a budget surplus (not) as Labor racks up $25.2 billion deficit in just three months shadow minister for finance and debt reduction Andrew Robb reported. The latest government financial statement reveals a staggering budget deficit of $25.2 billion for the first three months of the financial year. “The government is banking on improvements in revenue to bring the budget back to surplus, yet this statement shows no signs of the level of improvement that will be required and therefore spending must be cut.” CommSec chief economist Craig James estimates that the underlying budget deficit in the year to September was a record $63.3 billion. “The main concern is that revenues are still tending sideways rather than showing signs of repair. Meanwhile, government spending is at record highs and showing no signs of stabilising.”

Without a doubt one of the smartest economic reports that I have read is Economic reform will curb pressure on rates which lays much of the blame for increased interest rates on inept government policies. “But while rate rises are a blunt instrument, they are just about the only way the RBA can suppress demand. With a rising dollar, which will depress exports other than minerals and energy production, it is an automatic stabiliser that will slow the economy. A far better solution would be for government to have invested in infrastructure – railways and ports – to increase the efficiency of exports and to have improved productivity in southeast Australia, which is not benefiting directly from the boom. But the Howard government spent the taxes raised by energy exports on its watch on welfare payments and Kevin Rudd threw money at unproductive job programs, as Julia Gillard is still doing.”

“In the current circumstances, the price of stalling economic reform will be more painful than interest rate rises”. Hence, building approvals slide more than expected in September with a 6.6 per cent fall – in the year to September building approvals were down 11.6 per cent.

So figures confirm building weak which is understandable given the Gillard government still has more than $6 billion to be spent with her Building Education Revolution. Don’t blame the Big Gang Theory entirely as we all know they suffer on compassionate grounds. The answer should not be directed to angry customers should switch banks: Gillard rather economic reform, and we all know what happened to the Henry Tax Review.

No wonder Australians want an election – now given both forms of government continue to ignore economic reform. It is becoming increasingly obvious that economics is not a strong point for either party of choice – hence the ongoing and growing budget deficit.

When it comes to Nation Building – Fort Fumble (Gillard) has lost the plot!

Subscriber sales jumped to $986,510,220 so we are closing in on the magic $1 billion in subscriber sales.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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5.11.10Robert Simeon6 Comments »

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Next week the nation stops for the running of the Melbourne Cup, so out comes the form guide. Nothing unusual one might say, as it is well documented that Aussies would have a bet on two flies climbing up a wall. I’m not sure if any punters will have a wager as to whether or not the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike up the cash rate when they gather to assess the track condition of the Australian economy. On Melbourne Cup day last year, the RBA broke tradition when it reached for the whip and increased the cash rate target by +0.25 percentage points to 3.50 per cent.  When the RBA meets on Melbourne Cup Day we don’t believe the cash rate will move from the current level of 4.50 per cent.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released some interesting data this week that identified how the GFC pushed businesses to the wall – in the two years from June 2007 – encompassing the boom and subsequent bust – more than half a million Australian businesses shut up shop. Nationwide, there was a 73.6 per cent survival in that two years, with the number of businesses falling from 2.07 million to 1.52 million. The number of small businesses (up to 20 employees) fell 24,931 nationally in the period, with more than 80 per cent of the fall occurring during the worst of the financial crisis, in 2008 – 09. It was interesting to note that the majority of failed businesses  employed between one and four people and this is the number where the vast majority of businesses open their respective doors. What you won’t read is why these businesses actually failed which makes one wonder exactly what the Minister for Small Business actually does during the week. Obviously, not very much at all which hardly comes as any great surprise.

BUY PRINT

All eyes were this week on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures which came in at 0.7 per cent for the three months to September 30 – slightly up from the June 30 figure of 0.6 per cent according to the ABS. What is clear is that inflation is being driven by rising government charges and not increased domestic demand. As Macquarie Economics Research intelligently pointed out “Indeed, business surveys point to a very subdued inflation in the retail sector, partly due to cautious consumer behaviour. This has also been complemented by Australia’s major supermarket chains, which last week reported flat to negative price growth in the food segment. The point is, if all households are facing rising electricity and gas costs, then this in itself will be a dampener on discretionary consumer spending. And this should lessen – rather than boost – the case for further monetary policy tightening.”

Surprise, surprise, as Fort Crumble – NSW government, has moved to rein in surging electricity prices in a bid to put brakes on runaway electricity prices. Household power prices have already risen by up to 13 per cent this year and within three years, could go up by 42 per cent under power company increments approved by federal and state governments. One of my favourite graphs shows the price changes – so here it is for the year to September where I draw your attention to electricity, health and housing which just so happen to come under the jurisdiction of our elected politicians.

For the year to March 2010

BER projects fail to boost construction which comes as little surprise because construction in schools, bears absolutely no resemblance to housing. Chronic rental shortage a fact of life, says new study as metro areas in NSW face a permanent, chronic shortage of available rental homes. The Real Estate Institute of NSW revealed that the residential vacancy rate fell to its lowest level over the past twelve months, falling to 1.2 per cent. Bear in mind that one third rent, one third own with a mortgage and the final third own without a mortgage. The general rule of thumb a few years back, was 2.5 per cent (that was without population increases) so today it should be over 3.00 per cent. It won’t be that far off when the Sydney vacancy rate falls below 1.00 per cent and that will deliver catastrophic  results. Sydney take note – infrastructure is not a dirty word “The irony will not be lost on anyone who lives here. Because when it comes to infrastructure, Sydney is a town that nodded off for a rest on its laurels and ended up in a 30 – year coma.”

“The nation’s biggest town is spending less on infrastructure than any other Australian capital except Darwin. Compared with major cities in Europe, Sydneysiders know they have been left behind in public transport, high – density residential planning and urban development”. Hence, the funniest story of the week harbour underwater rail option to combat gridlock which is nothing more than an election gimmick given Fort Crumble is paranoid about losing its  AAA credit rating. The last time Fort Crumble honestly embarked on genuine infrastructure was back in 1995 when it won the bid to host the Sydney Olympic Games in 2000. “NSW governments have lost their appetite for major infrastructure construction. The result for Sydney in 2020 is a sub – par rail system, gridlocked weekday traffic, a CBD that struggles to stay relevant at weekends and one of the worst rates of housing affordability in the OECD. Quite simply, Sydney is a city that has lost its ambition. Like a naturally gifted athlete who cannot be bothered to train hard, Sydney runs the risk of being left behind by hungry competitors who enjoy none of its inherent advantages.”

Bugger! Reserve Bank earnings slump to 30 – year low – wow an Australian bank not making billions. The bank blamed the loss of earnings on a slump in foreign interest rates and the surging Australian dollar. Its annual statement, shows underlying earnings last financial year were $866 million which were that low back in 1983. So this year, Fort Fumble won’t be receiving a dividend which is bummer, as  last year it collected a respectable $6 billion windfall.

This week we released our iPad website so whether you are using your mobile phone, iPad or computer, when you type in rwm.com.au you will automatically be directed to your preferred application of use. Another real estate first, thanks to our developers Agentpoint. Infrastructure in real estate is imperative also and no other Mosman real estate agency offers its clients this unique online option of communication and information.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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29.10.10Robert Simeon7 Comments »

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First of all read the following transcripts which clearly identify why our presiding Government, Fort Crumble, is not only up the proverbial creek without a paddle, but in five months time, will finally be laid to rest. Never before in the rich political history of NSW, have so many elected sitting members opted to stand down (thus far) prior to an election. No new stars can shine in ALP’s black hole summed it up pretty well – “It will be fascinating to see how NSW Labor rebuilds itself after the election. One thing is certain, though, anyone lining up as a star recruit this time around needs a mental health check.”

Transcript number one: ABC News Stateline New South Wales when Quentin Dempster interviewed former Head of the Premier’s Department, Gerry Gleeson who spoke out against the NSW Government saying public confidence is gone, access and influence are being peddled through political donations and incompetence is apparent – Gleeson criticises NSW Government. Without a doubt one of the most insightful interviews pertaining to the inner workings and failures that continue to plague Fort Crumble – no prisoners taken.

Transcript number two: Gerry Gleeson addressing the Institute Of Public Administration Australia – NSW Spann Oration 2010 – If I was Premier of NSW in 2011.

In his interview with Quentin Dempster on the Epping to Parramatta railway Gerry Gleeson said “Well look I think when the Prime Minister Gillard when she announced the Epping to Parramatta railway line the audience laughed. Now there can be nothing worse for a minister or a prime minister for derision like that, because that audience had heard this so often before, and that’s what, it’s this continual changing of plans. Bob Carr had promised a railway line to the north west sector, it is the top of state priorities, yet here we have a federal, the Prime Minister of the country announcing, what after 24 hours notice to the New South Wales Government that, I’m going to build this railway line, I’m going to give you the money for this railway line.”

In his NSW Spann Oration, Mr. Gleeson said “The Yes Minister television series was close to capturing the culture of the times; a culture that is not entirely buried. The failure of Ministers to give any rational reason for the Metro to Rozelle reminds me of Sir Humphrey Appleby saying “in the great restaurant of government, civil servants are the cooks and politicians are the waiters. We prepare all the dishes and they serve them up to the customers.”

BUY PRINT

Having read Mr. Gleeson’s interviews, we sent Australia’s finest aerial photographer, Tim Mooney, to capture Barangaroo given former foreshore authority head takes a shot at Keating. Of greater concern is the new management as Premier lashes lord mayor over Barangaroo.

Coincidentally, this week I received this PDF – Time To Go FINAL Another must read as the theme continues.

Under Labor, NSW has grown slower than any other Australian state or territory. GSP is Gross State Product and since June 1995, Queensland and Western Australia have recorded GSP growth of 90 per cent and 80 per cent respectively. NSW has recorded 46 per cent growth and if NSW had managed to match Victoria’s growth of 65 per cent, our economy would now be $50 billion larger, equivalent to the turnover of BHP. That additional economic growth would have meant another $2.4 billion in state tax revenues this year.

NSW debt has climbed from $15 billion in 2003 to a projected $55 billion by 2014. This explains why infrastructure is on hold despite a surging population growth. The reason why? A spokesperson for Infrastructure Australia revealed one of the reasons NSW missed out on Federal funding was the inadequacy of the State Labor Government’s submission. The spokesperson indicated there was a lack of detail on the benefits and costing for the State’s key projects, saying, “There’s a lack of integrated planning in the NSW submission.” So here is the funding graph for the States and Territories that could fill out a form intelligently.

A horrific graph that would leave even Sir Humphrey Appleby lost for words. NSW is the largest contributor to GST payments. Even taking into account the incompetence of Fort Crumble, surely Fort Fumble would recognise that NSW deserves a greater apportionment of funds – Victoria won’t overtake NSW: Keneally. When you look at Infrastructure Australia’s funding allocations, Victoria is a work in progress model and NSW has completely stalled. Developers warn homes too big to build on time is another classic example where NSW has a massive crisis in housing availability. Australian Bureau of Statistics data revealed Sydney dwelling construction continues to slide with just 14,400 houses built in the year to June last year.

Aaron Gadiel, chief executive of Urban Taskforce, said that at June 2010, data showed just 13,400 of the 21,000 new Sydney houses that the state government had predicted. The Metropolitan Development Program report released by the premier, Kristina Keneally, in April said Sydney housing construction rates were “well placed to re – bound strongly” and forecast to exceed 27,000 houses by 2012. Mr Gadiel said the new data “has blown the government’s predictions out of the water”. “The government’s own experts have found that targets for an extra 25,000 homes or more,will not be achieved without major policy changes by government”.

Matthew Quinn, the managing director of Stockland, told the Urban Development Institute conference this week that Australia had a shortage of 200,000 houses that would grow to 800,000 by 2020 and 1.4 million a decade later, unless major policy changes were implemented.

I have never been a supporter of First Home Buyer Grants which (previously) I declared was like throwing lollies onto a highway without supervision. So, little surprise to see first – home buyers loans share shrinks to six year low as outer suburbs struggle most with mortgages. NSW has 44 per cent of the nation’s mortgage delinquencies which comes as no surprise when one looks at this article that appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald on April 27, 2009 first – homes rush creates boom suburbs in west. The boom generated by the Federal Government’s decision to dramatically increase first – home – buyer grants has been confined to Sydney’s west, NSW Government figures reveal. They show first home buyers in the inner city, lower North Shore and eastern suburbs have failed to cash in on the grants. The artificial government stimulation of the western Sydney markets will see a crash ‘n burn outcome as interest rates rise.

I suspect we had an Internet first this week, when we successfully launched a website within a website (who said it could not be done). We are now offering premium website pages for our top – end residences so please take a minute to view Glen Osmond – 23 Prince Albert Street Mosman where we have definitely raised the bar with online property presentation.

Cheers ^__^

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15.10.10Robert Simeon1 Comment »

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The circuses at Forts Fumble and Crumble are folding their tents because, with below par performances, the crowds are disgruntled.  Angry voters ready to give Rudd the red card an amazing turnaround where this fairy–floss policy is being eaten away and RSPT now means ‘Return Sender Priority Termination’.  Having said that, under the big tent in Canberra, The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) is the  star performer of his pet event – the back flip, which he performs with ease.  It would be much easier to call an election and put the RSPT to a referendum.

Can the tax be fixed when Rudd says it’s not broken? The Emperor appears to be a broken man bearing no resemblance to Broken Hill. Kevin Rudd fights dissent in ALP ranks yet the Ring Master PM Kevin Rudd holds line on mining tax reform. The trampoline at Fort Fumble is losing its bounce, as Peter van Onselen declared this week in The Australian novices at the wheel of state. It was revealed that two thirty year olds and a thirty one year old, with no experience in the labour movement and next to none in industry or business, are coaching The Emperor with his back – flips. “However, now that Rudd appears out of his depth, caught up in poorly constructed defences of policy positions and back downs over challenges he had previously described as too important to walk away from (think emissions trading), the trio is being blamed for bad advice that could culminate in Rudd becoming the first Prime Minister in nearly 80 years to lose office after one term.”

The show must go on…..

Bugger – I thought I had Tim with this week’s request. Thinking North Pole next week!

BUY PRINT

Having read the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board and feeling somewhat comfortable that one institution has its act together, out came Australian housing market ‘a time bomb’.

Humming “send in the clowns” and in they came. “The Australian and British housing markets are the last two bubbles left in the wake of the financial crisis, and it is only a matter of time before they crash, warns legendary US investor and co – founder of global investment firm GMO, Jeremy Grantham. Mr Grantham famously reported a year before the global financial crisis: “In five years, I expect that at least one major bank (broadly defined will have failed and that up to half the hedge funds and a substantial percentage of the private equity firms in existence today will have simply ceased to exist”. The Australian reported yesterday that he said “ Australia had an unmistakable housing bubble and that prices would need to come down by 42 per cent to return to the long – term trend”.  “You cannot possibly miss it,” he said.

Reserve Bank waters down fears of real estate housing bubble and consumer sentiment is holding up. The Real Estate Institute of Australia weighed in No housing bubble in Australia citing over the period December 1996 – December 2009, median house prices increased from around $160k to around $500k; a trebling in thirteen years. Within this period there were four phases:

• From December 1996 to September 2000, median house prices in Australia showed a moderate average growth of 2.1 per cent per quarter.
• From December 2000 to December 2003, house prices appreciated at a greater rate of 3.9 per cent per quarter on average.
• From March 2004 to December 2008, house price growth moderated to an average growth of 0.8 per cent per quarter.
• During 2009, growth of median house prices again accelerated to 2.9 per cent per quarter.

Time to take a Mosman tent snapshot to see where we are today, compared to this time last year. The messages are mixed as the results show. We collated the data from Domainpropertydata and it should be noted, that a significant number of sales in 2010 are yet to record a sale price because of confidentiality agreements. It will take a few more months before we have an exact position, so these figures will be higher, rather than lower.

Mosman house and semi sales 1 January 2009 – 15 June 2009

• Total number offered – 148 @ $329,394,627
• Total number sold – 132 @ $305,159,627
• Private Treaty – 120 @ $280,714,627
• Auction – 12 @ $24,445,000
• Total Combined Median – $1,815,500
• Total Combined Average – $2,347,381
• Highest Price – $13,200,000
• Lowest Price – $975,000

Mosman house and semi sales 1 January 2010 – 15 June 2010

• Total number offered – 171 @ $276,487,629 (2009 – $329,394,627)
• Total number sold – 147 @ $276,487,629 (2009 – $305,159,627)
• Private Treaty – 91 @ $206,089,629 (2009 – $280,714,627)
• Auction – 56 @ $70,398,000 (2009 – $24,445,000)
• Total Combined Median $2,105,000 (2009 – $1,815,500)
• Total Combined Average $2,425,330 (2009 – $2,347,381)
• Highest Price – $11,000,000 (2009 – $13,200,000)

The Auction Comparisons

• 2009 Number Auctioned – 34 (2010 – 87)
• 2009 Number Withdrawn – 27 (2010 – 10)
• 2009 Number Sold – 12 (2010 – 56)
• 2009 Clearance Rate – 35 % (2010 – 64 %)
• 2009 Adjusted Clearance Rate – 20 % (2010 – 58 %)

The challenge ahead for real estate in 2010

This is not confined to the Mosman market. All real estate markets will face the challenge of matching and/or bettering the sales results recorded in the 1 July 2009 – 31 December 2009 market where results were significantly higher, compared to the previous six months.

Mosman house and semi sales 1 July 2009 – 31 December 2009

• Total number offered – 192 @ $418,706,750
• Total number sold – 174 @ $408,296,750
• Private Treaty – 127 @ $340,354,750
• Auction – 47 @ $67,942,000
• Total Combined Median – $2,250,000
• Total Combined Average – $2,617,286
• Highest Price – $12,000,000
• Lowest Price – $836,000

There is no way to avoid  the fact that our property markets have slowed since April economic recovery seen losing steam.  Events in Europe and of course the ongoing hangover of the RSPT debacle have  also been major contributors. So back to those green shoots we go – home building the biggest in nearly six years and investors ignore signs and pile into property.

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that while home loans to owner/occupiers fell a seasonally adjusted ten per cent in the first four months of the year, lending to property investors rose eleven per cent. In the past year, lending to investors rose thirty per cent nationwide, and twenty per cent in NSW.

Our property markets (historically) tend to hibernate over winter so I wouldn’t read too much into present activity. It’s actually a good time to buy!  It does appear however, that the “fat lady” won’t be singing for some time to come, which shows just how hard it is to read property markets. Unlike the share markets, we don’t have buy and sell recommendations.  Investors are selling out of the stock market and moving their funds into the property markets – another clue?

Word from Sideshow Alley this week is that The Emperor is considering performing until April 2011 where he will call an election. Looks like his advisers consider it would be smart to go to the polls immediately following the Fort Crumble election in March 2011. I wonder if this weekends by – election in Penrith may change that decision?

Cheers ^__^

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18.06.10Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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It’s the state Fudge–it week and Fort Crumble was on a roll. We’re not talking about polls either, thanks to asset sales and a property recovery leads surge into surplus. Our economy expanded by 4.4 per cent which is the fastest growth since 2007 – 08. So why was the Fudge–it not constructive, given housing all over Australia is showing alarming structural problems? Whilst construction has expanded in March, April and May it has been modest according to a recent survey conducted by the Australian Industry Group and the Housing Industry Association. Then the Real Estate Institute of Australia – dropped the bomb lowest level of housing commitments since 2001.

Construction activity expands at slower pace where the overall construction index fell 2.6 points in May to 53.2, but remained above the 50.0 threshold between growth and contraction  a strong probability that it will fall below the 50.0 threshold in June. Fort Crumble treasurer announced “the Keneally government is taking NSW forward into an era of economic growth, building a better future for families and businesses of NSW.” Australia is marinated in (hurtful hikes) where on an annual basis the number of new loans is actually down 25 per cent. The Australian Bureau of Statistics released this week that Australia will be home to 11.8m households by 2031 which is up from 7.8 million in 2006 – so why have the ladders disappeared?

Whilst new home buyers big winners on the Fudge–it, I’m not sure that the NSW Home Builders Bonus is the answer. Morphing First Home Buyers into ‘Residents Over 65 Buyers’ (as long as the acquisition is off the plan) is intriguing as seniors’ duty cut lacks stamp of approval. The former proposal was to entice people into the market and the latter, directed to people already in the market. These new subdivisions are well west of Sydney and plagued with massive transport infrastructure neglect. In May, apartment construction fell 16.8 to see the index now at 42.0 and house construction at 57.7 which is a direct result of a lack of available credit within the Australian economy. This statistic won’t be changing anytime soon.

BUY PRINT

Each week, I challenge Tim Mooney with a photo request and it is plain to see that he has on file, Australia’s largest aerial photographic library.

What Keneally and co achieved … and what they didn’t where simply put: “Kristina Keneally and her Treasurer did little or nothing to bring this revival about. It came thanks to national and international forces beyond their control.” I would call that constructive criticism because one major element that NSW keeps missing are those builders’ ladders. It is all very well to roll – out Stamp Duty relief announced for some buyers however let’s not forget that in May 2010 Fort Crumble introduced its Ad Valorem tax increase of 0.2 per cent for properties between $500,000 and $1,000,000, and 0.25 per cent for properties above $1 million – on top of the usual Stamp Duty fines that were not reduced in the Fudge–it.

Here we have construction being dominated by the public sector over the private sector – so on with my missing ladder concerns. Alan Kohler on his Inside Business programme spoke with Nicholas Collishaw, Mirvac managing director. A great interview Nicholas Collishaw on encouraging development. Alan Kohler, “Australia is experiencing a dire shortage of houses – 40 – , 50,000 completions short of what the actually needs.” Nick Collishaw “Well, I certainly agree with that statistic. We expect a shortfall of 45,000 dwellings for the 2009 year and, as we see 2010 unfold and ’11 ahead of us, that gag increasing.” A must read, as too on Inside Business Christopher Joye discusses lower house prices given the headline mortgage rate has moved from 5.75 per cent to 7.4 per cent. Ironic, that property developers are finding it increasingly difficult to draw credit given no access to the housing emergency chest of funds. Conflicting in that The Emperor PM to pour $5.6 bn into poll fight a decision that shattered faith in PM.

Melbourne close to overtaking Sydney so up the ladder Melbourne goes and down the ladder Sydney goes because of its property structural problems. “With annual population in Victoria running at 2.2 per cent and driving demand in Melbourne, when compared with New South Wales 1.7 per cent growth, it is not hard to imagine Melbourne soon seriously challenging for the crown of Australia’s most expensive median priced city.” Whilst Sydney has a greater proportion of apartments (26.5 per cent compared to 16.7 per cent for Melbourne), Melbourne actually has more houses than any other city in Australia. Although it should be noted that infrastructure determines property values – position, position, position. So why do respective governments find themselves in opposition as against market directing? That would be political bias coupled with ignorance and an extension ladder aimed at re-election. Propping up marginal seats is not the answer given the vast majority of those constituents have re-located elsewhere across Australia.

A reason why the electorates are at loggerheads with The Emperor and his ailing Fort Fumble is exemplified, as he presides over a government that knows best. Trust the government? Not now whilst the result is clear: voters are fed up. Rudd set to lose election on mining tax Australia needs to get back to basics – why is our building demographic market contracting? It certainly does not help when lenders say no to loans as buyers knocked back as consumer sentiment drops in June. There is no doubt that Aussies are cautious after rate rises: RBA which was reinforced this week when RBA governor announced cut debt, save more: Stevens.

It is possible that never before, has Australia vented such anger at Fort Fumble and Fort Crumble – watch the Penrith by-election next week which will identify a record swing against the Premier Pristine government. Sovereign debt capitulations resonate through markets evidenced home loans drop to 9 – year low which represents the fewest number of new loans for owner–occupiers since 2001 and the seventh straight fall in housing finance commitments.

I’m sure that everyone was amazed to read this week lawyers consulted on sacking NSW government, says Governor whilst (not surprisingly) it does identify just how bad our governments are at present. I leave you with this comment from Alan Kohler on Inside Business Talking Point which says all about the RSPT. As Clint Eastwood once said “Do you feel lucky punk?”

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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11.06.10Robert Simeon11 Comments »

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Political correctness is out the window too. With more back flips than a Russian gymnast, degrees of difficulty can escalate in an election year (if off balance) and coupled with poor execution, can result in a lack of balance. It’s all very well to talk-up the routine before the execution, but we all know that Fort Fumble (Federal Government) resembles a modern day pin ball machine that constantly hits  tilt and freezes as a result of overzealous activities. In a nutshell:  You pour money in, only to see the machine (otherwise known as an economy) correct your aggressive behaviour!

The Emperor’s (Kevin Rudd) Achilles heel today, amounts to nothing more than activity freeze. More concerning is that the back flips are not supported with answers pertaining to the original decision -making processes. The Emperor today, is taking plenty of steps back and very few steps forward. The wind has left his sails. Too much, too fast, results in chaos!

Somewhat ironic following the global financial crisis (GFC) that the government of the day keeps back flipping with an abundance of poor policy execution, that does not promote business confidence. Ironic, in the sense that these, either deferred or cancelled policies, now equate to increased unemployment.  It is said that “a picture is worth a thousand words” so this week’s picture is dedicated to the failed economic policies and chartered courses of Fort Fumble and Fort Crumble.

BUY PRINT

Our Virtual Realty News research department (me) is always looking to give subscribers relevant and interesting data and we found just the thing  – IOU AUSTRALIA. The website says “Dedicated to delivering accurate information based on Australia’s debt situation in a real time snapshot. Numbers are based on public information, and are adjusted to reflect the information given out by various organisations time to time. Figures represent our nation’s financial health, and the debt we may leave for our children and future generations.”

Again, Fort Fumble and Fort Crumble lead the way – this is scary, have a look at Debt Clock Australia. I will try to obtain the relevant data and what the figures resembled when The Emperor took over the throne. Tony Abbott’s razor plan to pay off our debts is a good start given spiralling government costs add to deficit pressure as MPs fear Kevin Rudd is losing control.

Not as bad as Greece which today, has an estimated $430 billion, Sea of Debt – although one must remember that once upon a time its debt too, was just a fraction of what it is today. Greece has a deadline of May 19 to pay down its debt and the odds of doing so are looking like 430 billion to one. Greek debt fears rock US, European stock markets and the banks must not let Greece fall.

Sydney, you are the weakest link: survey and the latest quarterly Access Economics business outlook report, tips NSW to underperform again, during this next mining boom as interest rates, push up the Australian dollar and harm manufacturers and tourism operators in NSW. State is paying double for land Fort Crumble is paying up to double for land as part of a $250 million property buy–up for public housing.

Premier Keneally less popular than Barry Unsworth identified that if an election had been held in NSW last weekend, the Labor government would have been slaughtered. Charlie Aitken wrote on his Under The Southern Cross this week, “I did a bit of driving over the Anzac Day long weekend and sometimes you just have to wonder where your tax dollars go. How, for example, can the F3 Freeway north of Sydney, that basically is the gateway to Australia’s fastest population growth corridor, end at a roundabout?” Hypothetically, if another election was run this weekend the results would have been worse Melbourne set to overtake as biggest metropolis a 10 – year fall in the percentage of migrants settling in NSW and the lowest rate of economic growth of all mainland states has Melbourne on track to overtake Sydney as Australia’s biggest city.

With the First Home Buyers Grant (FHBG) you can artificially stimulate property markets, but the same can’t be said for Australian financial cash markets. Recently, I have been speaking with some of Australia’s greatest financial minds and some are predicting inflation hitting north of 10 per cent. The Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) issued this week an alarming media release – Caution required on interest rates otherwise known as an economic storm warning.  The reason why?

Alcohol and cigarettes went up +3.5 per cent at midnight last night The Emperor added another 25 per cent increase to cigarettes that will drive interest rates up further– nice one Kev! An ongoing economic failed strategy that now has him called Captain Chaos or the Prime Minister for No Economic Idea! Frustrated that nobody has picked up on the fact that a 25 per cent increase on the price of cigarettes, will drive interest rates higher and higher – even if you don’t smoke!

Inflation jump drives rate rise prospect given inflation rose in the March quarter more than expected. Inflation rose 0.9 per cent which equates to a rise of 2.9 per cent in the year to March, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Housing is the major culprit which increased by 6.1 per cent due to increases in electricity (+18.2 %), sewerage ( +14.0 %), rents (+4.6 %), house purchase ( +4.1 %) – the major DNA for these increases lies with state governments that keep driving  these utilities up and they (as well as inflation) won’t be going down!

Throw in housing shortfall locking out thousands where Australia has 178,000 more potential home buyers than available properties, with Queensland and Western Australia accounting for almost half the total shortfall over the past decade according to the National Housing Supply Council. On present trends, the total gap will reach 640,000 by 2029. Such shortfalls are a guarantee that home prices will continue to rise as too, will rents. Here is a crucial graph that will now feature prominently, in future editions of Virtual Realty News.

Pay particular attention to the quarters of March and June 2007/2008 and September 2008/2009 pre global financial crisis – the greatest clue as to where the cash rate is headed. It certainly does not help when Fort Fumble is considered to be in total chaos over policy. Only Health remains. Ironic that inflation looks like exploding and our Federal Government is showing signs of imploding despite an election looming.

To make matters worse Kevin Rudd’s great ETS fraud found out – Andrew Bolt and “the greatest moral challenge of our age” decision to put climate action on hold smacks of political cowardice.

For mine: Paul Kelly from The Australian filed the most compelling read Rudd’s dangerous climate retreat. “As retreats go, they come no bigger than Kevin Rudd’s delaying of his once cherished emissions trading scheme – one of the most spectacular backdowns by a prime minister in decades.” Not a case of stand and deliver, rather ‘The Emperor running to them hills’. Then we have this pearler Department of Hot Air costing $90 million where the 400 public servants employed in the Climate Change Department will remain employed despite no work until 2013.

Check roof insulation before buying a home: Archicentre the building advisory group advised that vendors are not legally required to reveal if the home they are selling has been part of the Federal government’s scrapped home insulation scheme. Fort Fumble’s $2.450 billion home insulation scheme has been linked to four deaths and more than 120 house fires.

The much awaited Henry Tax Review will be released this Sunday and one could not rule out yet another Fort Fumble back flip.

Also, next week we will be revealing a real estate individual website first when we announce which company will be advertising its product on our website – property pages and daily email alerts?

Clues will be left on our blog –  banking or media? Maybe a property portal, newspaper group, or search engine?

Whatever, the case they want the thousands and thousands of eyeballs that RWM attract each and every week. Clue one – their business model loves bricks and mortar?

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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30.04.10Robert Simeon9 Comments »

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Big statement you may say – well we didn’t say it RP Data’s Property Pulse revealed “Premium properties provide higher returns but volumes have remained relatively low in 2009”. It then went on to say “for cashed – up buyers the premium housing market could be poised to deliver excellent returns in the future.” A comprehensive property report that tracks Australian municipality machinations from 1999 through to 2009. What is interesting to observe, is exactly how the global financial crisis impacted property markets. We have published all the graphs in this week’s edition.

Property Pulse Highlights

• Sydney’s Mosman leads the nation with the highest number of house sales priced at $1 m or higher.
• Sydney and Melbourne featured equally in the top 20 suburbs for $1 m plus house sales in 2009.
• The Western Suburbs of Perth holds two of the top performing suburbs in the analysis.
• For units, the Sydney suburb of Pyrmont led the charge with 95 unit sales priced at $1 m or higher (that’s only 22 per cent of all Pyrmont sales in 2009,highlighting the wide variety of unit product in this inner city suburb).

BUY PRINT

The Sydney Morning Herald’s property editor Jonathan Chancellor wrote last Saturday, “Mosman turns up auction heat”. “Mosman has led the resurgence in auction activity with 100 listings in the first quarter, up from 43 during the same period last year. The pricey suburb’s 67 per cent success rate bettered the dismal 37 per cent clearance rate during the eye of the global financial storm.”

Each week we publish the weekly sales results and I would add that (some) agents have been doctoring the results of auctions which were passed in then, hey presto, two to four weeks later the very same properties reappear as ‘Sold – Auction’ (never let the facts get in the way of a good story).

Across Sydney, agents conducted 4560 auctions in the first quarter of 2010, compared to 2960 over the same period in 2009 (according to Australian Property Monitors). The previous record was 4330 in 2008 so by all accounts Mosman again, is up and up and we can predict with confidence, that despite interest rate increases, consumer sentiment should not wane despite rate pain.

Source: RP Data

These are telling graphs that (historically) identify 2007 as being the all time peak property performance year. Take the 4330 auction record quarter in 2008. You will note that there was hardly any impact on the 2008 sales results simply because just a minority found new owners. The majority recorded a zero sales result. In 2010 we have seen new Sydney record auction volumes and this time around , agents are matching vendors with purchasers. That said, in 2010 there is a distinct possibility that the previous record sales results posted in 2007 will be surpassed, because top – end property markets are now re-activating. This explains the lengths we (RWM) go to on a weekly basis, to accurately cover our demographic property market. It also endorses the fact that we have the number one online Mosman newsletter and are positioned as the number one Mosman agency with Australia’s greatest number of database real estate subscriber sales $943,479,220.

Source: RP Data

Source: RP Data

10% rates on the way proved to be a interesting headline last Sunday. The only problem is, that consumers get it and Fort Fumble (Federal Government) doesn’t. Suffice to say: when in an election year, keep buying votes. Rory Robertson, Macquarie’s interest rate strategist, says a booming labour market could force the RBA’s hand. “If the economy keeps on growing like this, we will hit the previous highs in the cash rate.” Mr Robertson went on to say, “we already have a template of what happens when the economy grows strongly – we saw it before the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008 – so we know how the Reserve Bank responds to the threat of inflation. It hiked aggressively back then, and it is doing the same now.”

On the one hand we have the Reserve Bank of Australia telling us to curb spending while Fort Fumble keeps spending at record rates. In search of an answer I went School building program won’t stop: govt Federal Education Minister Julia Gillard says the $16 billion school building programme won’t be suspended, pending an investigation, because it would mean job losses?

Don’t waste the boom, Mr Rudd where Alan Kohler wrote on his Business Spectator “In Australia, according to the ABS, there is now $133 billion worth of construction in the pipeline – the greatest investment boom in history.” Looks like our Education Minister needs educating on exactly what is happening in Australia.

Oh dear! Miss Prissy Julia Gillard hires a banker to unearth schools stimulus. A Mosman banker too! Undoubtedly, the findings will make for great reading. Personally, I don’t blame the builders given they were asked to quote for the building works and Miss Prissy approved the quotes.

What annoys, is that yet another $14 million has to be spent to correct political incompetence – on top of insulation, schools and border protection. The list goes on and today, Australian taxpayers are fast becoming a modern day version of a human ATM.

House prices plateau as buyers flee in droves – buyers are deserting the Sydney property market at the rate of 1000 a month, causing real estate professionals to predict an “exhausted market” where prices plateau for the rest of the year. This will definitely happen in many areas although it won’t happen in Mosman. Official figures show the number of loans to buy houses in NSW slipped from in September to just 14,300 in February after sliding in each of the past five months. The Australian Bureau of Statistics figures identify February as the worst month for home loans since 2001. Nationwide, just 2174 people borrowed to buy new homes, a figure that also reflects the low number of new homes on offer. School canteens override Construction slides as affordability worsens.

Alan Kohler from Business Spectator has a great ability to simplifying things and again, he brilliantly achieved this, when he wrote this week Deflating the credit bubble myth. “That’s why everyone keeps getting the property market wrong even the bulls have been surprised at its strength.”

“Anyway, a plateau this year would hardly be surprising, in fact another 12 per cent rise in the national median house price in 2010 would be staggering, and would see the RBA cash rate closer to 6 per cent than 5 per cent by early 2011.” My prediction is a cash rate closer to 6 per cent by Christmas given clearance rates in Sydney last week hit 70.7 to 73 per cent. Melbourne recorded 75.5 to 85 per cent – clearance rates above 80 per cent are considered a boom market.

Something I been saying for years!

Rising support to abolish state governments no doubt when the respective premiers read this the fear factor of incompetence overrode hospitals takeover on critical list. Four in ten voters favour abolishing state governments, seeing them as the least – effective level of government and increasingly looking to Federal Government to fix health and other problems. Fort Crumble had yet another outstanding week for leadership Blame game begins on F3 traffic chaos and Losing bidder won ferry contract. All part of The Emperor’s (Kevin Rudd) daily growing pains trouble Rudd in Big Australia.

Back to Mosman – our cutest and newest resident celebrated his one month birthday this week.

Happy Birthday “Pathi Harn” (Miracle) – The Emperor is praying for one too, because he knows that voters have memories like elephants!

Cheers ^__^

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16.04.10Robert Simeon4 Comments »