STATISTICS MEAN NEVER HAVING TO SAY YOU’RE CERTAIN !!

STATISTICS MEAN NEVER HAVING TO SAY YOU’RE CERTAIN !!

It is true that at some stage we all make errors, however to continually remain in error is just plain stupid !! Memo to : Governor of Moolah, would you please confirm that the method of collecting property data sales evidence still remains “hopeless.”

The Bureau of Statistics, came out with a statement that Sydney house prices fell a staggering 5.4 per cent in the June quarter. The Sydney Morning Herald ran a headline on the front page “Record slump in house prices”. This quote brought tears to my eyes. Not from sadness but, from laughter !! Even more interesting that they could not produce any evidence to support their claim, which is the same as saying that Sydney had a recorded rain fall of 936.5 millimetres although we don’t know exactly where. The funniest thing about this method of collecting sales data is that it is based on properties that settled during that quarter, not as most people assume, on exchange of contracts. A number of the more expensive homes that we have just exchanged, have settlement periods ranging from six to ten months, which means that although they should be in the upcoming September quarter figures they will appear in the March quarter of next year. So when the March quarter is published it will contain data that was relevant, three quarters back, which identifies exactly why this application is basically a ‘no brainer.’ Little wonder the ‘Governor of Moolah’, described the process as ”hopeless.”

Last Saturday, I enjoyed reading an article in the Business News section of the The Sydney Morning Herald, by Alan Kohler. (Alan is a subscriber of Virtual Realty News too !!) He titled his article “House price fall: real data an absolute rout” where he highlighted that” on Thursday, the ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) reported that house prices in Sydney had slumped 5.4 per cent in the June quarter; on Tuesday the REIA (Real Estate Institute of Australia) had reported that Sydney prices were steady.” The only way that these figures can ever be accurate is for the agents to pass on the information each month on exchanged properties, and there is fat chance of that happening. The interesting part is that the major franchisors require franchisees to furnish all sales at the end of each month. We have not auctioned a property for the past few months, all our sales having been by private treaty. This means that firms like Australian Property Monitors can’t access this information. Only this week, we have started listing properties again for public auction. Make no mistake, the property market is slower based on previous markets, however we are still selling them. You only have to look at our property menu to see that quite a few big ones are missing from last week’s edition. Therein lies a clue !!

Great article in The Daily Telegraph by Kevin Bissett, who unveiled in an exclusive that “Foreigners snapped up homes and units worth $7.3 billion in NSW during the property boom.” The United Kingdom came in first with $1.686 billion, next Malaysia $1.067 billion, Singapore $1.027 billion, Germany $715 million, Not determined $445.68 million, United States $255.39 million, China $239.82 milliion, Netherlands $177.68 million, South Africa $85.72 million and tenth on the list was Japan $39.43 million. ‘Virtual Realty News’ goes to every one of these countries. The number one suburb for the most sales was surprise, surprise, Mosman with 61 sales and we are confident that we made the majority of these sales. The period was from July 1, 2001 to June 30, 2004. Second was Balgowlah 44, Bondi 36, Sydney CBD 36, Vaucluse 36, St Ives 30, Surry Hills 27, Castle Hill 27, Balmain 25 and Baulkham Hills 25. Oh yeah, the power of the Internet. I am sure that more than a few subscribers overseas will be having a chuckle on that piece of information.

On September 15, “Virtual Realty News” will have its fourth birthday and one hundred and seventy five editions later we are still going strong. It is great to launch our new branding look on this milestone, and I can promise you it keeps getting better, as our new website is not far from launching and it is mind blowing. The new “Virtual Realty News” still has a few bugs and hopefully we will have ironed them all out by next week. Thanks for sharing our fun on the Internet, we would simply not be here without our loyal subscribers, so charge your glasses, cheers and clink !! ^__^

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