Politicians in 2011 are shrinking the Australian economy

Politicians in 2011 are shrinking the Australian economy

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Had to agree with Mungo MacCullum when he wrote this week – Has Australian politics ever been more depressing? To such an extent that even Rudd, Turnbull overshadow leaders in poll. Add a NSW state election next week where Premier Bambi is learning fast  that in NSW they like her, but don’t rate her. At least Barry O’Farrell announced “if we don’t deliver, kick us out” which is no doubt a stinging rebuke at Julia Gillard who prefers to pursue policies of lies and deception.

The key is consistency, Labor is lacking where the only thing consistent with our Prime Minister is an inability to lead. Carbon Tax, border protection, health, mining tax announcements all remain  atop of the in–tray, none of which are resolved. Throw in pokies cost – benefit study could make reforms tougher, threatening Labor alliance with Wilkie. Now the Prime Minister is taking on 7,500 pubs and clubs in Australia to appease one “Green vote”. The odds against Australia’s 27th Prime Minister are shortening. Clue?

When Newspoll results are revealed next Tuesday, the “faceless men” will again come to the fore (somewhat identical to our Australian economy). A carbon tax really needs a mandate to become a reality.  Should Julia Gillard be removed (it could happen) Australia’s most unpopular government ever, has a – rocky road ahead. We all know that the carbon tax is hurting Labor: Nathan Rees as Gillard running out of options on carbon tax as attempts to sell it fail. What will be interesting is to see if tax payer monies are spent advertising her new tax when no monies were available to alleviate a flood tax?

BUY PRINT

Wolseley Road is the world’s ninth priciest in the world which equates to approximately $20,500 a square metre value based on recent comparable sales.  Australia’s number one address for residential real estate?   I still can’t go by Balmoral as my preferred location.

Emissions charges ‘to skyrocket’ by between 118 per cent to 315 per cent when the carbon tax converts to an emissions trading scheme, according to new modelling conducted for the resources industry. In an extraordinary back–flip, Julia Gillard turns on Greens in carbon tax debate which suggests our prime minister has become delusional and is drowning in her deceptions .


Source: The Australian

Interesting to note that property hits new records which further explains why house prices ‘too high for cops, teachers which is easily explained by governments ignoring transport infrastructure where Sydney has the most million – dollar properties.

So let’s look at Mosman house price movement from 1999 to 2010. This week we look at price movements from 1999 to 2004. Next week 2005 to 2010 where market movements are staggering, considering  that all was rosy until the global financial crisis.

1999 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

  • Number of houses sold – 1
  • Total Value – $6,400,000
  • Average Price – $6,400,000
  • Highest Price – $6,400,000
  • Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research observations: With hindsight, this sale was a historical moment for Mosman top – end properties where this acquisition was amalgamated with the adjoining property (acquired earlier) to create today, Mosman’s most expensive landholding (nearly 6,000 square metres). This was also the beginning of site consolidations along Hopetoun Avenue.
Source: Domain Property Data

2000 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

  • Number of houses sold – 4
  • Total Value – $22,550,000
  • House Sales – $5,000,000 – $5,999,000 – 4
  • Average Price – $5,637,500
  • Highest Price – $5,900,000
  • Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research observations: Three sales on The Esplanade and one on Burran Avenue for $5,600,000. The $5,000,000 + markets are now starting to gain momentum.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2001 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

  • Number of houses sold – 14
  • Total Value – $91,860,000
  • House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 7
  • House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 3
  • House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 2
  • House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 -1
  • House Sales $15,000,000 to $15,999,000 -1
  • Average Price – $6,561,428
  • Highest Price – $15,500,000 (RWM)
  • Auction Clearance Rate – 57 per cent

RWM Research observations: This was the first time Mosman broke the double digit top–end sales market – much like first on the real estate moon. RWM was the first agency to break the $10,000,000 + real estate market.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2002 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

  • Number of Houses Sold – 12
  • Total Value – $79,050,000
  • House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 5
  • House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 3
  • House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 2
  • House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 1
  • House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 1
  • Average Price – $6,587,500
  • Highest Price – $9,400,000
  • Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent

RWM Research observations: Sales fell from 14 to 12 and the average price above $5,000,000 consolidated. It should be noted that no properties sold in excess of $10,000,000 with $9,400,000 being the highest recorded sale.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2003 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000,000

  • Number of Houses Sold – 25
  • Total Value – $157,900,250
  • House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 14
  • House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 8
  • House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 1
  • House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 1
  • House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 1
  • House Sales $11,000,000 to $11,999,000 – 1
  • Average Price – $6,316,000
  • Highest Price – $11,000,000
  • Auction Clearance Rate – 40 per cent

RWM Research: Sales more than doubled to 25 although the average price reduced marginally. This consumer sentiment heralded that the Mosman top – end markets were alive and well. For the time being “money was not an object” money was the lifestyle where the two resided in harmony.
Source: Domain Property Monitors

2004 – MOSMAN HOUSE SALES ABOVE $5,000.000

  • Number of Houses Sold – 18
  • Total Value – $124,951,000
  • House Sales $5,000,000 to $5,999,000 – 6
  • House Sales $6,000,000 to $6,999,000 – 9
  • House Sales $7,000,000 to $7,999,000 – 0
  • House Sales $8,000,000 to $8,999,000 – 0
  • House Sales $9,000,000 to $9,999,000 – 0
  • House Sales $10,000 to $10,999,000 – 2
  • House Sales $11,000,000 to $11,999,000 – 1
  • Average Price – $6,941,722
  • liHighest Price – $11,000,000
  • Auction Clearance Rate – 0 per cent

RWM Research: Top end auctions non–existent with the average prices showing a marginal increase. Sales volume down from 25 to 18 as was the total value sold from $157,900,250 to $124,951,000. Three sales in excess of $10,000,000.
Source: Domain Property Data

A strong possibility that in 2011, the highest sale will be below $10,000,000 – interesting to see what happened to top – end properties in Mosman during the global financial crisis. All revealed in next week’s edition.

Watch the Newspoll results next Tuesday – should her popularity continue to decline (to record lows) her position as prime minister will be all but untenable. I stand by my prediction that by Easter we will have yet another prime minister. Kristina Keneally gone next weekend and Gillard recording the lowest-ever approval rating as a prime minister in Australia’s political history.

Strong possiblity of a challenge next week – The Emperor (KRudd) wants to attend the Royal wedding.

Cheers ^__^

Take a look at look at this week’s property results which is indicative of what happens with new taxes and disasters

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

30 Responses to “Politicians in 2011 are shrinking the Australian economy”

  • Ann says:

    A Challenge Next Week….. it’s sad that Windsor and Oakeshott are clinging on as they know they would be wiped out at a poll, and Windsor is retiring anyway. Oakeshott needs 2 years to find employment.

  • Gordon says:

    Robert, it’s interesting that your first link above is to Mungo MacCallum on the Left blog The Drum, where he initially can’t say anything good about Juliar, though by the end his old habits take over and it seems that Tony Abbott is the only villain (for being sensible about taxation).

    Puppet premier Bambi was the last card from the pack of the faceless ones, though most people have now seen right through the charade. She seems to have tried most of the angles:
    Feminism – “I’m nobuddies goil”
    Greenwash – “everybody on yer bike”
    Femininity – “ooh, look, I’m being monstered by that nasty man”
    Glamour – this one did work; she got 6 times more coverage than Bazza.
    Cunning – “How dare you say I prorogued parliament to stop scrutiny!”
    Politics – “For 16 years we have acted to benefit working families”
    Fake Humility – “We have learned from our mistakes and will do better”.

    So next Saturday, which one will we think of as the real Bambi?

  • Brian says:

    Is R & W selling Real Esate or is it an advert for the Liberal Party ? Hope they give YOU a donation !

  • Gordon

    I’m always keen to throw a few red herrings into the pot. What I find quite hilarious with Premier Bambi’s election advertising campaign is just like the carbon tax it too has no detail. Just as amazing is that NSW Labor can’t list a single reason why they should be returned – after 16 years one would think they could list a few positives about their achievements.

    As for a carbon tax I’m all for a healthy debate as against a socialist government that expects to shove another tax down our throats. I did observe that the latest rhetoric has been expanded from pensioners to low income earners to now include middle income earners!

    Amazing in that no detail is yet to be formulated yet – they can identify which demographic markets it will assist?

    As for Bambi I would think some rehab would be the order of the day 🙂

  • Brian

    If my commentary disturbs you – might I suggest the *unsubscribe* option 🙂

  • Ann says:

    Kristina Keneally is the best Premier we have had in decades, just she is surrounded by driftwood and landmines and thats putting it nicely.

    She will be flayed by the faceless men after the election and probably resign and join some Board or two. I am sure she will be keenly sought after, as she is wasting her time in Macquarie Street on the opposite benches.

  • Snow White says:

    Brian,

    Its not an ad for anyone. Its just a vent for the growing tide of people / votes who HAVE HAD ENOUGH.

  • Brian says:

    Robert,

    It doesn’t ‘disturb’ me Robert – it amuses me because it is so totally inappropriate to your role as a real estate agent and demonstrates poor business acumen. Never mix personal politics and business.

    I don’t care what your politics are or have any interest in them – just if you can sell RE efficiently.

    This is after all a website decvoted to selling propery isn’t it, not a branch office of a political party ?

  • Brian,

    Thank goodness for free speech – I don’t believe my mixing personal politics and business as demonstrating poor business acumen simply because you don’t agree. I have been writing Virtual Realty News now for eleven years and I can assure you it is still going strong with over 6,000 susbscribers and growing – not declining.

    As for selling real estate efficiently – well last year we passed $1 billion in sales to our subscriber base which is the Australian record. For the last three to four years we have managed to achieve Mosman’s highest sales too and last year we also achieved 16 new street records in a difficult year.

    Yes – we have a website dedicated to selling property and we also offer a blog which has enormous popularity. Given the vast majority who spend half of each week working for the ATO – we like to see what happens to our taxes. If our blog was not successful we would have just a handful of subscribers. Eleven years on and I believe we have well and truly stood the test of time.

    No doubt you believe that NSW Labor has done a sterling job running NSW – sorry I can’t agree. I certainly would not rule out a Carbon Tax just that I want to learn more about it then vote on it – as what happened with the GST. My advice to Julia Gillard is try harder and try and achieve something because in my opinion she is causing more damage than good which is mirrored in her polling.

    So Brian I can’t agree with you – however I enjoy your input maybe you would like to suggest why the Australian Labor Party is doing such a fantastic job?

    The subscribers that I speak with love our weekly commentary – however having said that you can’t please everyone 🙂

  • Jane M says:

    Robert a brilliant response as i have been subscribing to vrn for many years now and find it educational and amusing. i don’t always agree with what you report but always look forward to reading the weekly editions.

    Don’t change a thing – and keep up all the hard work associated with publishing it each and every week.

  • Brian says:

    Robert,

    I didn’t say I didn’t agree with your commentary – that isn’t the point at all. Stop jumping to conclusions. I just think it’s inapprpriate on a RE Website and very poor business practice. And it’s unprofessional.

    At least you’ve spared us details of your private life, so far anyway, so I’m thankful for small mercies.

    Brian

  • Brian says:

    Robert,

    I’ve read your comment again and I quote :

    “No doubt you believe that NSW Labor has done a sterling job running NSW”

    I do ?

    and “maybe you would like to suggest why the Australian Labor Party is doing such a fantastic job?”

    I would ?

    How on earth do you draw those conclusions from my objection to a RE Sale website being used for pushing a particular political barrow, or any politcal barrow for that matter ? I say again that my objection is that it is inappropriate and unprofessional.

    It may be the best political commentary in Sydney, but that would not change my point.

    Stick to the knitting mate.

    Brian

  • Ann says:

    I have to say VRN is a highlight of the internet each week. in our busy lives you get whats happening in local real estate and state and federal politics all in one place. No where else can you get this so efficiently.

  • Patricia says:

    Brian…In view of the significant tax revenue generated by real estate activity (e.g. stamp duty, land tax, CGT, GST, income tax…and don’t forget the harebrained and rescinded NSW vendor exit tax), it is entirely appropriate for a real estate agent and ‘blogger extraordinaire’ to scrutinise the performance of the state and federal governments and the policies of the opposition parties. There is nothing inappropriate or unprofessional in doing so.

  • Robbie Mac says:

    And what an entertaining week of blogging we have here! The usual mix, with added interest, and Brian (unknowingly?) lobbing Robert a couple of cracking Dorothy Dixers. All wonderfully entertaining stuff. In amongst it all, some interesting points though:

    Should a real estate blog have political commentary? Fair question, and one I occasionally ponder as I read this blog. Let’s not forget it is a blog, which provides the author with certain freedoms, and in this case, that includes some chat about the politicial landscape, which, as Patricia notes, has an impact on property prices. Further exacerbated at the moment by the appalling standard of government we are seeing at both State and Federal level. As Snow White observes – everyone has had enough. You know it’s bad when Labor party diehards comment in the negative about their own. I can’t recall the political landscape being this barren in my lifetime, so the extra commentary makes sense – there is certainly interest from the readers.

    Is it unprofessional? If I had asked Robert to value my property, and I received, in my written valuation, a diatribe about any of the political parties, then I would say yes. However, this is a forum for discussion, and it is very clear reading back through the blogs that various topics are covered beyond real estate, politics being one of them. The topics that pop up are usually ones that are high in the priority of the public’s interest, and, as noted above, politics is certainly a recurring theme for good reason!

    Ultimately, I am happy for Robert to make his comments, as too Brian. I can choose whether or not to read them, which is one of the beauties of this lovely country. I can think of a few places that might not allow such freedom….

    As to the political landscape in front of us? As I’ve noted before, I am hoping the change of government in NSW will return the state to a stable political environment, and enable businesses to make good decisions knowing that the government will in turn do its job – something the incumbent seems to have forgotten long ago. A return to certainty can only be good for both corporate and consumer confidence, which in turn will flow through to the real estate market. The federal level is still a concern, with plenty of rumours about the Orange Roughie having a definite use-by date. These rumours come from the same sources that correctly predicted the end of Emperor Rudd a fortnight prior to his dumping. Two months ago Gillard was given eight months to get it right. Word is that time frame is much shorter now. Anyone for a quinella on leadership change?

    Looking forward to next week’s analysis. Should see some fascinating data about the top end of town and their homes.

  • Patricia says:

    Have missed your incisive and reasoned commentary, Robbie Mac!

  • Snow White says:

    Robbie
    I would have thought a leadership change would have taken place in normal circumstances with these consistent polls, but Labor would be wary, so soon after Rudd was axed.

    Retail sales in discretionary are falling. Some retailers tell me its 30 – 40% down at the moment. No one is ahead of last year in this category, except a few online retailers. In the non discretionary, there is a flight to price conscious.

    With the NSW election, retail sales figures and unemployment (excluding mining employment) in the next 8 weeks, I dont see how Gillard can hang on.

  • Ann says:

    Our onlines sales are up 64% on prior year, wholesale sales up around 33%, BUT its gone very quiet since mid February, when the Carbon tax was announced.

    Everyone says the consumer is cautious and purses and wallets are only open for the must have items and items heavily harked down.

  • Greg Vincent says:

    Brian decisions that politicians make have impacts on our economy, housing affordability through planning, interest rates, taxes, employment, immigration, wage and tax reforms + red tape & regulations that the politicians push through National, State and Local governments.

    Helping clients to make informed decisions is one of the most important and under-estimated roles that a real estate agent has.

    C’mon Brian, “demonstrates poor business acumen. Never mix personal politics and business.” so agents should just sit back and say nothing when politicians impose Vendor Taxes that cost the state millions of dollars in lost investment as investments rush off to every other state in Australia (only to find that the NSW state government decide that it was a mistake).

    Try living through the heartache of helping someone to sell their property for less than what they bought it for due to some of these stupid government decisions and then tell me that business & politics shouldn’t be personal.

  • Ryan O'Grady says:

    If Robert wrote weekly posts which simply summarised the latest sales in Mosman then he would never engage an audience.

    Content for a blog needs to relate to the audience you’re attempting engage. Robert believes political content will be welcomed by his audience, and looking at the weekly comments he receives he’s probably correct.

    Keep up the good work!

  • Thanks all, for your input and what an interesting discussion it is – although let me add that our topics for discussions won’t be changing anytime soon.

    After all, it should be noted that the Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) website is the highest ranked in popularity and most visited individual website in Mosman for the *real estate category*.

    The average real estate website consists of between 100 and 150 pages – the RWM website is nearing 5,000 pages as it is purpose built to dominate the World Wide Web (WWW). On an average week our pages are viewed from subscribers/visitors covering in excess of 70 countries. The vast majority (outside Australia) are expats who own property on Sydney’s lower north shore, and they enjoy being kept abreast of issues that affect their property investments.

    What we endeavour to achieve for their convenience is to be their preferred one – stop – shop on the WWW Information. Highway for real estate and it’s working very well.

    Agents don’t offer real estate blogs for the simple reason they are bloody hard work and time consuming. If we were to just cover what’s happening in real estate alone we would become a monthly blog – and that (in my opinion) would be just plain boring.

    A blog is a “forum for discussion” (Robbie Mac) and “nothing inappropriate or unprofessional in doing so” (Patricia). “I don’t always agree with what you report but always look forward to reading the weekly editions” (Jane). “At least you’ve spared us details of your private life, so far anyway, so I’m thankful for small mercies” (Brian) – try Facebook and Twitter for that. “Blogger extraordinaire” (Patricia) “It may be the best political commentary in Sydney, but that would not change my point” (Brian).

    Well, the point of a blog is to get subscribers blogging, so I actually like that point – Brian (scroll up).

    In the meantime, I have to extrapolate the sales data for Mosman house sales above $5,000,000 from 2005 – 2010 (which means breaking down each sale individually by hand). Cover the final days of Fort Crumble and NSW has four Premiers in four years?

    A catchy nickname for our new Fort (given Crumble is facing demolition) and what to call Barry O’Farrell on Virtual Realty News?

    Premier Bazza Da Fawlt over at Fort Fawlty or, Fort Notmyfawlt?

    Ah those trials and tribulations associated with writing a weekly blog!

    Does a Toyota Tarago have more seats than the NSW ALP?

    Stay tuned 🙂

  • Thank God we live in a country that allows freedom of opinion and freedom to unsubscribe.. as for me, I love reading this blog, great entertainment! Keep it up Rob.

  • Robbie Mac says:

    First impressions:

    Fort Rumble, for many reasons, not least that the noise coming from Macquarie Street will be loud for quite some time, and from many places!

    Fatty O’Barrell. Truly is hard to beat, although a bit tricky to type. Perhaps, in true Australian style, shorten it to FOB (although there won’t be anything Free On Board in this state for quite some time!). Would love to hear more, as I think FOB’s nickname potential is high.

    Been quite a week for the blog hasn’t it? And we haven’t even had the election yet. At that point, a phone box will probably have more seats than the ALP, although they both share the real possibility of extinction based on current trends!

  • Ann says:

    I like Bazza Fawlty. Fatty O’Barrell is too common.

    Old Bazza, needs to be quicker / surer on his feet, or a new breed of faceless men will strike before too long

  • The heralding of a new era – just that Fatty O’Barrell is a bit tired given his pending elevation. Need a name that is unique to Virtual Realty News where the newly constructed Fort requires a fitting name association.

    I liked Da Fawlt as he is accused of becoming Premier by default 🙂

  • Ann says:

    I am missing Fort Crumble already, end of an era

  • Robbie Mac says:

    How about Bazza O’Fazza or further derived to Bazz Fazz, or even Buzz Fuzz? Or is this just too silly?

    What about “The Boff” (a la “The Hoff”)?

  • Gordon says:

    The Big Boffa, bravely bearing the bunting for Fort Bumble?

  • Ann says:

    Bazza Fawlty / Fatty O’Barrell / Da Fawlt need to be given 6 months or so, before you lay into him with Fort Crumble, unless he openly breaks promises like what has happened in Canberra.

  • Ann says:

    My son, who lives in a very marginal Federal seat in Western Sydney, got a phone call this morning from local Federal MP, welcoming him to the area and asking what issues he wanted addressed. He has been there for 14 months.

    I wonder of the Federal pollies are gearing up for a snap election?

    I heard that the Speaker was almost ousted yesterday and survived by one vote

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