Politically speaking: is the Gillard government gone?

Politically speaking: is the Gillard government gone?

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The anniversary of Kevin Rudd’s political assassination last week, was far reaching. I was fascinated to read – “the final nail – Graham Richardson reveals coup but says Julia Gillard faces ‘slaughter’ in The Daily Telegraph. I doubt even Graham Richardson would have believed that since his announcement the Gillard’s government’s handling of the Australian economy has gone from bad to atrocious.

I wrote last week in Virtual Realty News that my Canberra mole advised me that the prime minister has just six months to prove her credibility before a ‘position vacant’ sign appeared at The Lodge. I was not surprised to read this week that key Labor backbenchers are privately warning Julia Gillard that she has six months to turn around the government’s performance. How do you turn around a tsunami? The prime minister is collapsing under the pressure – Gillard slips up on carbon compensation. Then Julia Gillard’s goose is looking cooked; so back to square one I didn’t mean to mislead on carbon: PM.

Then Senate report urges scrapping of MRRT – the prime minister’s personal negotiation to resolve the ugly miners’ anti – government advertising campaign which combined to bring Kevin Rudd down. Julia Gillard’s government is now spiralling out of control – just look at the live cattle debacle where again the Gillard government capitulated to the Greens and where we now see a $30m hardship package for cattle industry. There are approximately 700 abattoirs in Indonesia and the ABC conveniently stumbles upon a few who are committing atrocious acts on Australian live stock.

A $320 million a year Australian business shut down overnight – now we see a $30 million hardship package which justifiably will be followed up with an enormous class action against the Gillard government – another huge taxpayer cost. PM, Rudd take on live cattle crisis this is hilarious given they can’t stand one another. Senator Ludwig who is hopelessly handling this debacle gave Indonesian officials the first Australian government draft of animal welfare standards in – English. Which they could not read so he later had to follow up with an Indonesian translation! DOH!

BUY PRINT

Tim shot this aerial last week – the vacant area to the upper right is what used to be known as The Block

Three of Australia’s top business leaders are calling for an early election, saying the Gillard government is causing economic uncertainty. John Symond, Gerry Harvey and John Singleton, revealed a consistent belief that constant negativity surrounding the government is weighing down on consumer confidence. The vast majority of Australians now want an early election: September 2011. If you live in NSW – this economy is consistently going backwards.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) report has Sydney’s population at 4,575,532 and climbing, yet NSW infrastructure remains in the doldrums. NSW keeps falling behind the other states and territories growing just 1.2 per cent last year to 7,272,200. Last year 94,668 NSW residents decided to relocate to another state while 83,425 moved into NSW – a net loss of 11,243.

Quite amazing that in this day and age NSW  now finds itself with more departures than arrivals.

The tools have been laid down as construction in Sydney is well behind the other Australian cities – it is becoming quite clear that we no longer have a culture for construction. The ABS reports that last year 27,655 houses and apartments were constructed in NSW. Victoria recorded 50,700 (nearly double NSW), 31,611 in Queensland and 22,315 in Western Australia. To make matters worse just 16,118 new houses were built in 2010, Victoria led the way again with 37,218, Queensland with 21,764 and Western Australia constructed 18,442. Sydney has the lowest vacancy rate for rental properties in Australia at just one per cent – the general rule of thumb is that this figure should sit between two and three percent. The rental vacancy rate will continue to decline forcing rents up further given just 19,111 dwellings were approved for construction in Sydney between July 2010 and May 2011. Spiralling rents are forcing families further west as they seek rental relief affordability.

Following up – on last week’s Mosman housing six month report for 2011 – here are the apartment statistics.

Data provided from Domain Property Data and RWM Research this data is from 1 January to 23 June for 2007/2010 and 2011.

Mosman – Total Number of Apartments for Sale

  • 2007 – 357
  • 2010 – 258 (a 27 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)
  • 2011 – 232 (a 35 per cent reduction from the 2007 peak)

Total Mosman Apartments Sold

  • 2007 – 338
  • 2010 – 243 (a 28 per cent reduction)
  • 2011 – 215 (a 36 per cent reduction)

RWM Research: The Mosman housing market is actually defying the trending seen in other Sydney suburbs given the available volume of houses for sale is actually contracting.

Total Value of Mosman Apartments Sold

  • 2007 – $274,113,101
  • 2010 – $215,035,892
  • 2011 – $151,475,500*

*denotes that 27 apartments have entered a zero sale price – the Total Value for 2011 is still months away from final determination.

Adjusted Mosman Auction Clearance Rate

  • 2007 – 34 per cent
  • 2010 – 39 per cent
  • 2011 – 43 per cent

RWM Research: Mosman has one of the lowest if not the lowest auction clearance rates in Sydney.

Mosman Median Apartment Price

  • 2007 – $520,000
  • 2010 – $650,000
  • 2011 – $610,500*

*denotes that 27 apartments have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Median Apartment Price is still months away from final determination.

Mosman Average Apartment Price

  • 2007 – $820,697
  • 2010 – $918,956
  • 2011 – $805,720*

*denotes that 27 apartments have entered a zero sale price – the Mosman Average Apartment Price is still months away from final determination.

MOSMAN – 2088

  • Number of houses on the market last week – 97
  • Number of houses on the market this week – 87
  • Number of apartments on the market last week – 99
  • Number of apartments on the market this week – 97

RWM Research: The total number of houses for sale dropped below 100 last week and this week it has fallen below ninety – historic low supplies.

CREMORNE – 2090

  • Number of houses on the market last week – 17
  • Number of houses on the market this week –  15
  • Number of apartments on the market last week – 33
  • Number of apartments on the market this week – 33

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

  • Number of houses on the market last week – 9
  • Number of houses on the market this week – 9
  • Number of apartments on the market last week – 65
  • Number of apartments on the market this week – 67

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

I will leave you this week with a Letter to the Editor that appeared in The Daily Telegraph – “If the Gillard – led Labor Party had won the last election with enough seats to govern in its own right without the support of Bob Brown and the independents, we would not be discussing a carbon tax or poker machine reform. We are being governed by a group of self – interested people who are not listening to the needs of the Australian people.”

Kevin Rudd may have lost his way – Julia Gillard has lost Australia.

When the Gillard government finally announces its price on carbon: Australian industries will commence a relentless anti – Gillard government advertising campaign that will take the prime minister to historical lows in the polls.

Australia won’t get a carbon tax – it will have an election. When Tony Abbott suggested a plebiscite it was more a case of plant a seed, add water – and watch it grow.

Cheers ^__^

7 Responses to “Politically speaking: is the Gillard government gone?”

  • Here here! Great edition. Interesting stats. .. Bring on the election!

  • Ann says:

    Thanks Robert

    Great read as always. Wonder if Oakeshott and Windsor are taking their vitamin C’s so they dont miss the Carbon Tax / Mining Tax / Health Fund Rebate windback vote, or do we wheel them into Parliament with trackies and ugg boots and a heater?

  • Gordon says:

    Ann, it seems that Oakeshott, Wilkie and Windsor may crawl over broken glass to preserve Judas Gillard’s government. Which is a light-hearted way of saying there may be some self-interest by those intrepid statespeople, who seem to be doing so well out of propping up an increasingly dissolute contretemps.

    Robert, you rightly note ‘Kevin Rudd may have lost his way – Julia Gillard has lost Australia.’ Nobody is listening to her any more, but everybody remembers her L-A-W moment: There-will-be-no-carbon-tax-under-my-government.

  • One particular point has grabbed my attention – and that is how the internet allows voters to gather information and arrive at much faster conclusions – online news, social media, blogs and polls etc. What we are seeing currently is a federal government going against the voters and in return paying a greater cost in a complete lack of support which in turn places them under enormous pressure to appease voters.

    Months ahead of the NSW state election in March the result was correctly predicted well in advance. We are seeing those very same patterns emerge with the Gillard government – and this also happened to the Rudd government.

    They may say that they don’t pay much attention to the polls – however, if that was so then Kevin Rudd would not have been dumped in the way he was.

    The internet now allows the public to have a much stronger opinion and it just keeps getting louder and louder!

  • Good article Rob. Gillard must ask herself – how can we stuff up Australia so much, at a time when we should be booming. We are part of a global economy but at a time when we could be kicking arse, we are kicking our own.

  • Ann says:

    Yes, Gillard will never be able to gain voter support again and she knows it, her party knows it and they are sitting tight using her to get all the bad news out and then will change in the new year or there abouts. They can’t axe her now, cause is too close to Rudd’s axing.

  • The one thing that Gillard is obsessed with is her standings in the polls – the carbon tax details are finally released this Sunday. Most convenient given Parliament closes on Friday for five week’s so very little scrutiny in Canberra – all smoke and mirrors!

    Newspoll is out again next Tuesday so expect another primary and satisfaction vote decline.

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