No Boom No Bust – Just No Lust!

No Boom No Bust – Just No Lust!

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It’s that time of the year when Sydney property markets enter their annual hibernation period. This period usually coincides with speculation that the markets are in a rapid decline. Property market mirrors two – speed economy however, a report by BIS Shrapnel has found that property market conditions are likely to improve in New South Wales and the resource – rich states of Western Australia, Queensland and Northern Territory.

It is well documented that our markets, following the Global Financial Crisis, are re-calibrating and the greatest dilemma facing our housing markets is establishing the start price. This task is made even harder when a suburb has a strong top-end market as these markets (historically) document the greatest price declines. On the other hand, what we are presently seeing in Mosman is most positive. Currently, there are just 80 houses on the market which represents just 1.63 percent of the total number available. To put this into perspective, in November 2011, Mosman had 168 houses on the market – so we are seeing a 52 percent volume reduction from the peak of 2011.

Market commentators talk of the market as a whole and never break them down to niche markets which are exactly what they are. So when the Mosman housing market is trading well, we can expect to see 3.5 percent (175) houses on the market at any given time (usually spring/summer). When this number climbs to 5.00 percent (250) the market is peaking and anything above 7.50 percent (350), the market is heading rapidly towards a major crash. At the current level of 1.63 percent, home owners can relax. The market has a AAA+ rating.

BUY PRINT

Australia’s chronically weak house prices: Is the crash upon us or a long – term flat trend? Shane Oliver. Again the property markets are bundled in together which in my opinion is a lazy assessment (as I have just shown with the Mosman data). What I can tell you is, that we expect Mosman prices to start increasing from September (albeit marginally not magically). There is not a single Mosman real estate agency that analyses property data in Mosman as thoroughly as the team here at Virtual Realty News. This explains why agents use our data to advise their respective clients.

Source: Domain Property Monitors

    MOSMAN – 2088

    • Number of houses on the market last week– 85
    • Number of houses on the market this week – 80
    • Number of houses on the market this time 2011 – 87
    • Number of apartments on the market last week – 89
    • Number of apartments on the market this week – 89
    • Number of apartments on the market this time 2011 – 99

    CREMORNE – 2090

    • Number of houses on the market last week– 14
    • Number of houses on the market this week – 11
    • Number of houses on the market this time 2011 – 17
    • Number of apartments on the market last week – 20
    • Number of apartments on the market this week – 19
    • Number of apartments on the market this time 2011 – 33

    NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

    • Number of houses on the market last week – 17
    • Number of houses on the market this week – 15
    • Number of houses on the market this time 2011 – 9
    • Number of apartments on the market last week – 50
    • Number of apartments on the market this week – 51
    • Number of apartments on the market this time 2011 – 65

For this week’s sales in Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, , Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets next Tuesday when we expect to see the cash rate remain steady at 3.50 percent (bear in mind that this time twelve months ago, we had a cash rate of 4.75 percent). However, there is now a very strong possibility that by October/November we may very well see the cash rate at 2.50 percent.

Despite recent criticisms – no risk of housing bust: RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle said he was more concerned about the outlook for the European Union and the uncertainty it was causing globally. The GFC is now five years old and it is clear that Australians are just getting on with business.

What Australia is seeing is a booming digital age which is evidenced by the recent problems at Fairfax Media and News Ltd. We can expect to see print declines for real estate advertising until such time as they come up with smarter consumer alternatives.

Nowhere to hide for banks in the digital age: Gail Kelly I would add that this now applies to every business model in Australia where the pressure is on well and truly. Every business is now under the pump and we all (well most) have our favourite apps. One of the best is ABC iview app launches on iPhone which is a natural progression from their iPad launch in December 2010. I rate this app as one of the best ever launched and definitely a benchmark for the digital industry.

The Carbon Tax comes in this weekend and if this week’s asylum bill disaster is any indication, it will be one debacle after another. Never before has Australia had a federal government that constantly makes headlines for all the wrong reasons. Parliament now takes a six week break (just imagine a business that could shut down like that every year.) Just shows despite what they say they are all pretty much useless – the break highlights this given 48 hours after closing Australia’s biggest tax arrives.

Cheers ^__^

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