No Boom But No Gloom

No Boom But No Gloom

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By all accounts when one reads the news our property markets are apparently booming? As they say if you want to make a mountain out of a mole – hill just keep adding dirt. It’s very easy to use the boom word just as its very easy to use the word bust. What the vast majority forgets is that real estate is not an exacting science given if it’s such a great time to buy now then why did the markets fail to react from 2008 to 2010 when prices dropped by 30 per cent?

Sydney’s property bubble hysteria is unfounded where it was correctly pointed out “Three years ago BIS Shrapnel, which makes part of its living from mis – forecasting property markets, declared in 2010 that capital city prices would continue to rise strongly. By 2013 Perth would be up 22% and both Sydney and Adelaide would have added 20 per cent. Nothing of the sort happened, of course. Three years on, Perth is up about 7 per cent and Sydney a meagre 4 per cent. Adelaide is still down 3 per cent. These are not statistics that support bubble theories.”

The capital growth rates (average annual growth in median prices over the past ten years) have Mosman at 2.4 per cent, Cremorne at 2.8 per cent and Neutral Bay at 3.5 per cent. Our demographic property markets are performing currently at their highest level in six years albeit with the tightest stock levels not seen before in decades. If you are, for example, looking to buy a house presently in Mosman, Cremorne or Neutral Bay you have a choice of 110 homes, for apartments your choice is 112.

Balmoral

SYDNEY AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHY 

BUY PRINT

Sydney’s property market is a bit like the porridges of the three bears in Goldilocks – too hot or too cold and, for some, just right – I would put our market in the just right category. “Data from Australian Property Monitors shows 40 per cent fewer homes selling in the $4 million to $6 million price range in the first half of this year compared with the same period in 2010 when the market was enjoying a fillip.”

The top four suburbs with the highest number of $4 million to $6 million sales in the six months to June 30, 2013:
1. Mosman (19 sales) 22 sales in the 2010 fillip
2. Vaucluse (9 sales) 14 sales in the 2010 fillip
3. Bellevue Hill (6 sales) 15 sales in the 2010 fillip
4. Woollahra (5 sales) 5 sales in the 2010 fillip

All up sales of $4 million to $6 million sales in Sydney, in six months to June 30, 2010: 187 compared to in six months to July 30, 2013: 111.

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The last time the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) moved the cash rate up was back on November 3, 2010 to 4.75 per cent, so it’s little wonder that we are seeing engagement in the property markets given today it sits at 2.50 per cent. Interest rates increase an eventual risk for borrowers: Fitch warning – monthly home repayments will rise 40% if interest rates return to 2008 highs and banks might not be taking this into account when lending. Since October 2011 the RBA has now delivered eight cuts so it’s inevitable that they will start increasing the cash rate – the warning signs already are starting to appear. RBA tells banks dwelling price boom was “its greatest fear.”

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When I want an accurate gut – feel for our property market I look no further than the available stock levels which still remain in decline. For houses Mosman is averaging a twenty per cent decline on previous years and to be honest I can’t really see this changing anytime soon.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 99
• Number of houses on the market last week – 85
.Number of houses on the market this week – 84
• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 99
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 59
.Number of apartments on the market this week – 63

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 15
• Number of houses on the market last week – 3
.Number of houses on the market this week – 7
• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 18
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 17
.Number of apartments on the market this week – 13

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 17
• Number of houses on the market last week – 11
.Number of houses on the market this week – 13
• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 45
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 36

Source: Australian Property Monitors

For this week’s sales in Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate.
Click Here

For this week’s opens for inspection
Click Here

The Federal election is just over two weeks away and everyone has just about had enough of the rubbish coming out of both sides. I couldn’t believe my eyes this week when I read Backpackers still receiving stimulus cash – yes, years after the Global Financial Crash we are still sending out cheques for $900.00 to people no longer living in Australia.

You could fund a small country on the monies the Australian government wastes!

Cheers ^__^

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