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I’m not talking about the de-throning of the Minister for Pink Batts (Peter Garrett) debacle either! Rather, just exactly what went wrong with their misguided Nation Building spend fest that has now resonated into a property boom (in some areas). History shows such market movements can be contagious, as was subprime, which brought about the global financial crisis (GFC). Fort Fumble (Federal Government) reacted by directing its spending obsession into schools (with plaques) when in fact, it should have taken aim at our housing, transport and health debacles. What Messrs. Rudd and Swan missed, was that all Australians live in houses, use transport, and do require hospital assistance.  By comparison, a much smaller percentage attends school – another no brainer!

The 7.30 Report ran an interesting piece this week Australian houses amongst least affordable in the world. Its working paper was the latest release of the 6^th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2010 which is always an interesting read. As Kerry O’Brien stated “There is some concern that this latest property boom again raises the spectre of an unhealthy bubble; but there’s a range of contradictory elements at work that potentially pose a profound challenge for Australian authorities.” In 2009, Australia constructed around 130,000 homes nationally when we needed to build 190,000 to meet population growth. In 2010 it is projected that Australia will construct just 152,000 homes – so Fort Fumble has builders working on schools? Home prices will continue to rise as will rents too! Supply is not even close to meeting demand.

It was Nude Opera this week when renowned photographer Spencer Tunick enticed approximately 5,200 Australians to bare all on the forecourt. A case of love the one you’re with or maybe a case of I spy with my little eye someone beginning with…? The shoot has been called Mardi Gras: The Base.

Tim Mooney Photography

It was another tough week for The Emperor who fronted The 7.30 Report Kevin the confessor and said  “We are taking a whacking in the polls now. I’m sure we’ll take an even bigger whacking in the period ahead, and the bottom line is I think we deserve it, both – not just in terms of recent events, but more broadly.” True, when The Daily Telegraph ran “Prime Minister Kevin Rudd losing support in western Sydney” the Mad Monk seized the moment “Rudd rattled, says Abbott” then The Emperor (later to morph as Dr. Emperor) faced an attack from within “Rudd mea culpas have shot party in foot, say ministers”. Never one to miss an opportunity, I grabbed this comment on The 7.30 Report – Kevin the confessor.

The Emperor “One of the problems that we have had as a government, for which I accept responsibility, is we didn’t anticipate how hard it was going to be delivering things.” PM, this is otherwise known as business acumen. The Mad Monk responded “Kevin Rudd thinks he’s the economic genius who saved Australia from a recession but the public might conclude he’s just won the gold medal for waste.”

With his new policies on the run, now Dr. Emperor is taking a scalpel to our hospitals. Amazing what a difference a week makes. This political operation long overdue and Kevin Rudd to cut away the dead tissue of our ailing health care system Dr. Emperor moved into a totally different theatre, that being the operating theatre – Rudd announces $30.9 funding takeover of the public hospitals where just a week from the Pink batt debacle  Rudd’s hospital reform more radical than 1984 Medicare revamp. So how is The Emperor going to doctor our hospitals? Rudd takes $50 bn from states for hospitals. Not bad, given they are already in deficit with a growing interest payment of nearly $20 billion per annum. We found two great articles that critiqued Dr. Emperor’s health announcement Graphs galore but answers to big hospital reform questions are scarce by Lenore Taylor of the Sydney Morning Herald and Steve Murphy from Business Spectator Balance of Power. Australian states and territories are currently drowning in debt to the tune of approximately $133 billion which is about the equivalent of what Fort Fumble now owes (both increasing not decreasing)

Fort Crumble (NSW government) would be ‘champing at the bit’ given, NSW takes the biggest slice in GST handouts. This no doubt  assisted their  mortgagee – in – possession sale of “NSW Lotteries sold in $1 billion deal”where a confused Treasurer Eric Roozendaal said, “That means total proceeds of the sale of NSW Lotteries for NSW taxpayers of more than $1 billion – money that will go straight into funding frontline services for the families of NSW like teachers, police and nurses, and strengthening the state’s balance sheet.” He later said the sale proceeds would go directly into paying down the state’s debt – a margin call?

Pulling plenty of strings, our “Puppet Premier” then embarked on an estimated $750,000 television campaign in an attempt to convince constituents just how Australian she really is. No mention of NSW Labor just her website Kristina Keneally – although I did notice that our Puppet Premier forgot that when any Premier runs an advertorial they always have our Australian flag in the background – another massive blunder! It keeps getting worse “NSW fails to secure funding for infrastructure” in a staggering admission (not really) Fort Crumble announced that it was awaiting an invitation. Infrastructure Australia then advised that submissions were not by invitation only – Fort Crumble consistently hopeless. Yes Minister!
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So let’s look at what has happened in our Mosman market compared to same time in 2009. Bearing mind that in 2010 some sales are yet to be recorded at Domain Property Data.

Houses – I January 2009 to 1 March 2009 compared to 1 January 2010 to 1 March 2010

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As you can see, it is line ball where we will be monitoring results throughout 2010 and calling it as it is. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) moved the cash rate upwards this week by 0.25 per cent to 4.00 per cent and here is (what the economists said) about this week’s increase. Certainly when the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that Australians spent $20.100 billion on a shopping spree in January this did not help the RBA’s decision.

As quick as a flash, the banks jumped on the increase where the standard variable rates are;

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Of greater concern is The Emperor’s move into hospitals and his threat to call a referendum should the broke states and territories not agree. Since Federation, there have been 44 referendums and just 8 have been successful. Success of late, has not been one of The Emperors strong points. Then again it is an election year so anything goes. Policy on the run can have dire consequences. Just look at Fort Crumble selling off state assets.

Our Puppet Premier in white – another clue! That flag was raised years ago so (the Fort has some continuity), what assets are next? What do you think about Dr. Rudd’s hospital announcement? Obviously one week’s work and better known as “policy on the run” to stop his poll haemorrhaging voter dissent.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

This week’s RWM open for inspections Click Here

5.03.10Robert Simeon7 Comments »

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It was more like an episode from Yes Minister, where both Fort Fumble (Federal Government) and Fort Crumble (NSW Government) tried to outdo one another at the Ministries for Incompetence and Implosion (what an art form they made of it). Fort Crumble is hardly flush with cash as it languishes in deficit yet it still manages to masticate on its scrapped CBD Metro for a north – west rail link which is now its tenth transport cancellation.

The Ministry for Incompetence and Implosion then asked voters to “take it on trust, because work would not begin until 2014 at the earliest”. Obviously nobody at Fort Crumble knows how to read a poll Confirmed: scrapped Metro cost $271 million because this would have to be close to the greatest stuff – up in NSW’s parliamentary history. To reassure voters, it then introduced a $30 – a – year – levy on motor vehicle registrations which is estimated to deliver $500 million over 10 years.Would it be improper to suggest that liquidators will be called in well before 2014? Yes Minister!

The Premier, Kristina Keneally was on a roll when endorsing a plan to build one of Sydney’s biggest hotels which just happens to be 100 metres out over Sydney Harbour. Harbour high – rise breaks all the rules but she insisted that this decision would not create a precedent that other developers would seek to follow? Well Sarah, (I mean Kristina) a precedent is defined as: any act, decision, or case that serves as a guide or justification for subsequent situations. Yes Minister!

Tim Mooney flew to Melbourne this week and why not? A fantastic shot of Melbourne CBD and the Yarra River.

Tim Mooney Photography

The other Ministry for Incompetence and Implosion – Fort Fumble had The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) going somewhat batty when his rock star minister somehow lost his voice Peter Garrett dumps dodgy home insulation scheme. Call me a cynic, but I observed that the announcement was scheduled for 1.45 pm last Friday. Torah Bright won gold at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver at 1.00 pm in the half pipe – must have been either a coincidence or political spin. Yes Minister!

Whilst The Emperor accepts ultimate responsibility for his insulation debacle which has been linked to four deaths and 93 house fires, with another 80,000 houses at risk, this scheme cost taxpayers $2.500 billion and thousands will be out of work after insulation back flip. The Emperor was quick to appease a voter backlash so (he pledged another $42 million) to the (approximately) 7,500 businesses installing installation and 180,000 houses that have to be re-checked. The Emperor’s rock star minister declared that he can read music but not commissioned reports. When the Minter Ellison Report was handed to his stage hands in April 2009, it took ten months to arrive in the rock star’s recording studio – Yes Minister!

The Emperor had to move fast as Torah Bright had concluded her Olympic event – so out came the announcement $69 million for biometric checks in counter – terrorism. It was suggested that some are: Going batty over blah – blah. Paul Sheehan from the Sydney Morning Herald had a different spin: How Rudd the dud dropped Australia in alphabet soup. A horrific week for Fort Fumble: Collins subs top $7 billion of dud projects submarines don’t require Pink Batts). It was just not cricket when it was announced that the Victorian gocernment was flying 25 Indian journalists to Australia at a cost of $250,000 – business class flights, tours of the Melbourne Cricket Ground (our cricketers are in New Zealand), concert tickets and accommodation at top hotels – to show that everything is hunky dory Down Under. Despite some saying Indian money ‘could be better spent’ one would think that given the intoxication and obsession with governments to spend money that we are actually in surplus – (obviously they believe that we are).

The debate then moved to Australia’s mortgage debt blow – out when Chris Zappone wrote in the Sydney Morning Herald “The federal government relaxed its foreign investment rules for residential property early last year. Whilst the controlling body, the Foreign Investment Review Board, does not disclose the exact number of sales to overseas investors, anecdotal reports from would – be local buyers and real estate agents across the country point to a surge in spending from Asia – particularly mainland China. Agents are also setting up offices in China and arranging “property tourism” to tap the demand.” I am a strong believer that our real estate market needs to be local not international and it would be very interesting to see why The Emperor changed these qualification rules? Are they considering returning to the previous status quo?

Furthermore, under his regime will it remain in place given the economic recovery in Australia? The Housing Industry Association (HIA) noted that (home ownership was even more out of reach) when housing affordability tanked 18.4 per cent in the December quarter and was 22.3 per cent lower than twelve months earlier. The HIA is predicting a modest housing recovery in 2010 with about 152,000 dwelling starts and we need international competition?

Housing debt is in overdrive where the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) figures identify that housing debt hit $910.1 billion in December, which is up 17 per cent over the twelve months and up 92 per cent since December 2004. Total housing debt is set to reach $1 trillion within the next twelve months and rest assured, interest rates will be heading up not down.

The Emperor has plenty on his plate all in an election year Rudd, Gillard fight over who foots the bill for $1,800 canapés and champagne wow – when it rains it pours.

This week we broke a new Australian record when subscriber sales hit $904,079,220 and real estate agencies are just starting to know what a database can do! From the good, to the bad and ugly Estate agent Shannon Daniels made a real killing I can’t believe that somebody would be dumb enough to run his “Deceased Estate (Vendors Dying To Sell)” campaign given the vendors are very much alive and well.

Given the lodged complaints Shannon Daniels won’t be hearing – thank you, Mr Hooker!

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here – the auctioneers hammer was silent in Mosman

This open for inspections – here

26.02.10Robert Simeon9 Comments »

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The  worry is, will Fort Fumble (Federal government) tax the living daylights out of businesses to pay down the Treasury’s projected budget deficit for 2009/10 of $57.7 billion? . Nobody denies the fact that Australia (like the rest of the World) required a stimulus package although in Australia there remains a strong school of thought that our economy was misdiagnosed and over-medicated. With the convalescing now over, we are  told that all markets (property included) are back to 2007 levels. What a recovery!  Annualised growth rate in November 2009 was 5.4 per cent, December 2009 up to 6.2 per cent which was 3.5 points above the long – term projections.

The Westpac – Melbourne Institute, leading index of economic activity, (they predict the future three to nine months ahead) suggests that our financial genie (not to be confused with Wayne Swan’s inflation genie) is predicting boom times ahead.  Thank goodness we offer a weekly edition, because just 365 days ago, (February 2009) we were  told by The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) that ‘this is the worst economic catastrophe since The Great Depression’. Elected politicians keep pointing to cash splashes and stimulus packages and I must admit that the Rudd approved bicycle track at The Spit has done wonders for  the Mosman economy!  A defining moment that delivered our economic recovery and hundreds of Australian municipalities share stories of such inspiration.

Chowder Bay, Clifton Gardens.  Well worth a visit and drop into Ripples on picturesque Sydney Harbour for a fine dining experience.  On the right hand side of our page we list links to some of Sydney’s finest eateries as well as other businesses too, for your perusal and enjoyment.

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. www.timmooneyphotography.com .

The news just got worse (again) for The Emperor when a Senate enquiry revealed this week  an “alleged” gross waste of tax payer dollars (otherwise known as his stimulus) with the ineffective insulation of up to 400,000 homes under the national home insulation program. A study revealed that 30 to 40 per cent of work done was not compliant. Quite scary given that approximately one million homeowners have taken advantage of this stimulus programme. Loss of life has occurred as well as house fires that result directly from our very own version of No (know) Minister! Fort Fumble now has to allocate another fifty million taxpayer dollars  to fix the shoddy workmanship.

Now let’s wrap up the Neutral Bay house sales comparison for 2009 and 2008. For this week’s new subscribers, here is the Mosman and Cremorne sales data. It’s not exclusive.  All agents/agencies have access, but they don’t have a database or a newsletter.  For our competitors, technology is not a priority!  The Sydney Morning Herald last Saturday, revealed that its Domain property portals Top 10 searched for NSW suburbs on Domain in 2009.

• 1. Surry Hills 2,537,285
• 2. Mosman 2,291,860
• 3. Randwick 2,237,146
• 4. Darlinghurst 2,159,211
• 5. Paddington 2,030,416
• 6. Newtown 1,872,869
• 7. Chatswood 1,685,820
• 8. Marrickville 1,694,580
• 9. Bondi 1,682,834
• 10. Coogee 1,662,332

. When one adds up the Top 10 that is 19,854,353 online inspections for just ten suburbs alone – yet agents/agencies continue to place the Internet on ignore? The real reason is that when it comes to the Internet, the agents/agencies are the ones that have to pay for it – not vendors. When one observes the dominant agencies across Sydney they are the businesses that offer and present the strongest online relationships within their demographic real estate markets.

NEUTRAL BAY PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2009 to 31 DECEMBER 2009

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• Total number offered – 60 (Mosman 334)
• Total number of sales recorded – 60 (Mosman 303)
• Total value sold – $83,281,400 (Mosman $668,966,377)
• Public Auction – 13 properties to a total value of $19,462,000
• Private Treaty – 47 properties to a total value of $63,819,400
• Median price – $1,134,000 (Mosman $2,000,000)
• Average price – $1,388,023 (Mosman $2,397,728)
• Highest sale – $7,600,000 RWM (Mosman $13,500,000 RWM)

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NEUTRAL BAY PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2008 to 31 DECEMBER SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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• Total number offered – 67 (Mosman 360)
• Total number of sales recorded – 56 (Mosman 287)
• Total value sold – $93,561,000 (Mosman $774,865,612)
• Public Auction – 17 properties to a total value of $23,432,000
• Private Treaty – 39 properties to a total value of $70,129,000
• Median price – $1,216,000 (Mosman $2,275,000)
• Average price – $1,670,732 (Mosman $2,738,041)
• Highest sale – $4,650,000 (Mosman $14,700,000 RWM)

RP Data revealed this week that in 2009, the highest recorded number of first – home buyers on record plunged into the property market. A staggering 191,000 new entrants. This figure equates to 70,000 more first – home buyers jumping in before the grants finished. A 55 per cent increase!  This is a potential train wreck should the cash rate keep climbing. Only time will tell. America had sub -prime and Australia (potentially) has grant -prime.

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) consumer confidence eased in February (although it was 36 per cent higher than a year ago) with businesses and households  throwing caution to the wind. The RBA said that business loans declined seven per cent in 2009 which is the lowest recorded since the recession of the early nineties.

If you think The Emperor has had a tough couple of weeks, the Bungle State – Fort Crumble (NSW government) continues to show its complete incompetence. The $5.3 billion CBD Metro is looking as shaky as a poll and already aligned with the Cross City Tunnel and Lane Cove Tunnel – both broke just like Fort Crumble – Metro headed for disaster:  Opposition.

Finally – two comments grabbed my attention this week.

The first – The Emperor, announcing a $10 million boost to meet a Labor commitment to halve the nation’s homeless rates by 2020.  A fantastic cause but what if it was  $60 million?  Unfortunately, the other  $50 million has to be spent on the insulation stuff – up. Well it is an election year  and we remember in 1987, Bob Hawke launching  his election campaign by promising that no child would be living in poverty within three years. The National Youth Commission (NYC) identified the number of  homeless 12 – 18 year olds fell from 26,060 in 2001 to 21,940 in 2006;  Now, the situation is worsening due to soaring home prices. Housing affordability fell by 140 per cent between 1986 and 2006 where in 1986, 3.6 times average income was needed to buy a house;  by 2006, the purchase price required 7.0 years pay. I keep tagging Kevin Rudd in Virtual Realty News in the hope that when he reads the edition he will post on the blog. I know that his office reads it -  just a tad slow on blogging!

The second is Fort Crumble’s NSW Planning Minister, Tony Kelly, who obviously has had so many portfolios (and Premiers) he has lost the plot.  No pun intended!  More land won’t mean more houses: Kelly. Given that Fort Crumble can’t roll out any transport infrastructure this is what he said “prospective buyers should blame private sector inaction, and the fact most people want to live close to Sydney’s centre and not its rural outskirts.” Maybe Tony, that perception is aligned to the fact that your very own government struggles to build a sand castle let alone a transport model that works or arrives on time for that matter. Not to forget the taxes that developers are forced to pay to obtain a Development Approval/Building Approval.

See you next week to upset somebody else!

Cheers ^__^

This week’s open for inspections http://www.rwm.com.au/sales-list/open_times_sales/

For this week’s recorded Balmoral real estate, Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

19.02.10Robert Simeon6 Comments »

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In real estate we speak about position, position and position. Sometimes when politicians appear on television, their position can be an embarrassment because, although they can talk the talk, they can’t walk the walk! The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) found himself in that exact position when he appeared on Q&A – Monday night on that ABC at Old Parliament House, Canberra. Journalists had an absolute field day (as did viewers) “At the end of the day, the kids caned Kevin on Q&A” by David Penberthy in The Punch (another great daily online read). I well remember noticing this point. “One of the funniest things about the show was how so many of the young people in the crowd smirked in amusement at Rudd’s Ruddisms – “there’s no magic wand”, “but you know something”, and the ever – present “at the end of the day”, and his use of hand gestures and the sweeping arm to explain the scary arrival of the GFC.” He was trying to gild his lily which wilted after approximately five minutes of prudent interrogation by our country’s future leaders!

They say “nothing makes it harder to remember campaign promises than getting elected” and The Emperor would have observed that his Fort Fumble is now under greater scrutiny and attack from all sides. The Daily Telegraph ran the following stories “Kevin Rudd’s 795 days of empty promises” and “Kevin Rudd’s report card: could do better”. A tough week for The Emperor or is it just that politicians make headlines running for something or running from something?

No doubt he will be very fit by the time he takes us to the polls this year given so many empty promises have glaringly emerged with our “economic conservative” Prime Minister. Joe Hockey fared much better as “Giant Tinkerbell” tutu, magic wand and crown.

Surfs Up! As too are wobbegong attacks although I did chuckle when a witness described the shark as a Great White – although these surfers look unperturbed whilst catching waves at Manly Beach

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Tim Mooney Photography

So from politics, let’s move to property and performance where we mark the report card for Cremorne house results from 2007 to 2009 (next week we examine Neutral Bay houses).

CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2009 to 31 DECEMBER 2009

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• Total number offered – 91 (Mosman 334)
• Total number of sales recorded – 87 (Mosman 303)
• Total value sold – $157,197,000 (Mosman $668,966,377)
• Public Auction – 25 properties to a total value of $38,727,500
• Private Treaty – 62 properties to a total value of $118,469,500
• Median Price – $1,450,000 (Mosman $2,000,000)
• Average Price – $1,871,392 (Mosman $2,397,728)
• Highest Sale – $13,500,000 (RWM)

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CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2008 to 31 DECEMBER 2008

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• Total number offered – 96 (Mosman 360)
• Total number of sales recorded – 80 (Mosman 287)
• Total value sold – $164,864,550 (Mosman $774,865,612)
• Public Auction – 24 properties to a total value of $48,531,000
• Private Treaty – 56 properties to a total value of $116,333,550
• Median Price – $1,650,000 (Mosman $2,000,000)
• Average Price – $2,113,648 (Mosman $2,738,041)
• Highest Sale – $8,280,000 (RWM)

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CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2007 to 31 DECEMBER 2007

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• Total number offered – 100 (Mosman 456)
• Total number of sales recorded – 96 (Mosman 412)
• Total value sold – $223,006,433 (Mosman $1,182,372,720)
• Public Auction – 28 properties to a value of $52,452,600
• Private Treaty – 68 properties to a value of $174,861,433
• Median Price – $1,700,000 (Mosman $2,300,000)
• Average Price – $ 2,347,436 (Mosman $2,869,836)
• Highest Sale – $15,000,000 (new Cremorne record)

Source: Australian Property Monitors

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SUMMARY CREMORNE HOUSE PRICES FROM 2007 TO 2009

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Note that for Mosman and Cremorne in 2008 and 2009, the years of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) posted the highest recorded sales for each year. During the GFC, Cremorne traded as usual 2009 – 87 sales, 2008 produced 80 sales and 2007 recorded 96 sales. Mosman bunkered down 2009 – 303 sales, 2008 – 287 sales and 2007 – 412. It should also be noted that Cremorne posted the highest sale in 2009 at $13,500,000 over Mosman $13,200,000 (both vendors are Virtual Realty News subscribers).

So Mosman property and performance was back in the spotlight this week when it made the front page of The Sydney Morning Herald . “No more withdrawal symptoms as bankers again splash the cash” and “A bonus is a must, says the real estate crowd” . I would add that our 2010 market is too early to call – a key clue for subscribers to our daily email alerts will be our under offer and sold alerts – our website is now the Mosman sales barometer.

Peter Martin from The Sydney Morning Herald sent another warning to The Emperor when he wrote “Interest rate rises in Labor hands” – “The head of the Reserve Bank has held out the prospect of continuing low interest rates, as long as Labor sticks to its pledge to restrain spending.” Which is highly unlikely in an election year although I did chuckle when I read, “Joyce link between rates, ‘gross over-simplification’, says Henry”.

Somewhat ironic, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) saying that Labor again accumulated debt and the Howard regime paid it off in seventeen years of unprecedented economic growth. This again points me to the Henry Tax Report which is as mysterious as a government grant from The Emperor in a Liberal seat – it never happens. Makes one wonder just why this report (six weeks since its release) remains highly confidential.

What is not confidential is that RWM no longer offer properties for rent. Our total focus now is on sales and Agentpoint has delivered what I consider the smartest homepage in the real estate industry.

We are proud to further develop our online business – as our business is your business.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Balmoral real estate, Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

12.02.10Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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There is no doubting the volatility of home prices and this became more evident when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided not to increase the official cash rate. The new money in our property markets is under serious threat. So too, are the financial institutions which can ill afford a reverse in property prices. These very markets were in growth mode during the global financial crisis when the established (old money) property markets went into actual decline. The RBA is now faced with a real estate conundrum as is the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) with reporting accuracy.

Christopher Joye wrote in Business Spectator this week “ABS overstates house price growth” – “the ABS’s median price numbers are being artificially inflated by the fading of first timers, who are being replaced by up graders buying more expensive homes.” Which is exactly what happened in Mosman last year as the market awoke from the GFC (from June onwards) as did the majority of top-end property markets. Joye wrote “While the ABS results will no doubt trigger the inevitable media excitement, the hard empirical fact is that Australian homes have been recording consistent capital growth of about 2 – 3 per cent per quarter since the start of 2009. It is comforting to note, however, that Australian house price growth has not outpaced the growth in household disposable incomes since around 2002.”

The building in the bottom left hand corner is the clue where Sydney Ports are located – a magnificent heritage building on Sydney Harbour identifying our rich history

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Tim Mooney Photography

Understandably the media ran amok (trying to get those rivers of gold running again) with the ABS figures – Australian house price index rose 5.6 per cent in the December quarter and the September quarter was upwardly revised to 4.4 per cent. ABS figures in the year to December identified that the house price index rose 13.6 per cent. The only problem is, that ABS figures are not considered as accurate as the other data aggregators.

So let’s take a look at Australian Property Monitors – Domain Property Data (our preferred data aggregator given that they list the actual property addresses for all the properties contained within this report) revealed for Mosman house sales in 2009 – 2008 – 2007 a comparative analysis where you can be the judge.

MOSMAN PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2009 to 1 DECEMBER 2009

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• Total number offered – 334
• Total number of sales recorded – 303. (31 still unrecorded)
• Total Value Sold – $668,966,377
• Public Auction – 62 properties to a value of $94,857,000
• Private Treaty – 241 properties to a value of $574,109,377
• Median Price – $2,000,000
• Average Price – $2,397,728
• Highest Sale $13,200,000 (RWM)

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MOSMAN PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2008 to 31 DECEMBER 2008

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• Total number offered – 360
• Total number of sales recorded – 287
• Total Value Sold – $774,865,612
• Public Auction – 65 properties to a value of $126,645,250
• Private Treaty – 222 properties to a value of $648,220,362
• Median Price – $2,275,000
• Average Price – $2,738,041
• Highest Sale $14,700,000 (RWM)

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MOSMAN PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2007 to 31 DECEMBER 2007

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• Total number offered – 456
• Total number of sales recorded – 412
• Total Value Sold – $1,182,372,720
• Public Auction – 132 properties to a value of $292,042,000
• Private Treaty – 280 properties to a value of $890,330,720
• Median Price – $2,300,000
• Average Price – $2,869,836
• Highest Sale $22,500,000 (new record price)

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Next week Cremorne House and Semi sales

SUMMARY MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES FROM 2007 to 2009

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It is interesting to extrapolate data post GFC. In 2007 the number of houses offered to the marketplace was 456 and in 2008 the number offered, fell -21 per cent to 360. In 2009, we witnessed market consolidation when 334 houses were offered at a – 7 per cent decline. One must not forget that in 2008 and 2009, scuttlebutt had property voyeurs believing that more than half the houses in Mosman were available for sale (this would equate to approximately 2,500 homes as against the recorded 360 and 334 respectively). Thank goodness one Mosman agency has the technology and desire to set the record straight.

Sold properties in 2007 came in at 412 and dropped -30 per cent in 2008 to 287 then in latter 2009 we saw an interesting turnaround where sales increased to 303 – a +5.5 per cent increase. The same patterns can be observed in ‘total value sold’ statistics when the total in 2007 was $1,182,372,720. This fell -34.5 per cent in 2008 to record $774,865,612. In 2009 we started to see the recovery when total sales were $668,966,377 (this represents a -14 per cent decline). We expect these figures to move back into the black in 2010.

THE AUCTION v PRIVATE TREATY DEBATE IN MOSMAN

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This is amazing data and before we move further, I must advise that every suburb reports different rates of success. The Eastern Suburbs have very strong auction markets and Mosman is one of the worst performing auction markets in Sydney.

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Mosman – 2007

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• Total sales – 412
• Auction – 132 (32 per cent)
• Private Treaty – 280 (68 per cent)

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Mosman – 2008

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• Total sales – 287
• Auction – 65 (23 per cent)
• Private Treaty – 222 (77 per cent)

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Mosman – 2009

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• Total sales – 303
• Auction – 62 (20 per cent)
• Private Treaty – 241 (80 per cent)

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Makes you wonder why so many Mosman agents keep recommending auction? I know that regular blogger Patricia will find these statistics of great interest.

So where to in 2010 and what will happen to Mosman house prices? I asked Steve Patrick, one of the most respected agents in Mosman what would happen and here is his response. “After a twenty (20) per cent fall in our market from the highs of 2007 to the end of 2009 (actual registered sales on several properties substantiate this figure), I believe the market bounced back somewhat in the order of five (5) to ten (10) per cent.) The last few months of 2009 confirmed this trend where house prices have now stabilised.

There is renewed confidence in the local property markets from buyers, albeit with caution, where I see our market moving steadily over the next six months with small (but more importantly), steady upward growth. Supply and demand will be the key factor going forward as it always has been. Rarely in my past twenty plus years working in Mosman, have I seen an over -supply, even when the GFC was at its historic peak.”

So there you have it! The Mosman online real estate bible has spoken. This weekend marks our first 2010 experience of buyer reaction/response at our upcoming open houses.

We trust that the data contained within this edition of Virtual Realty News will greatly assist you with your market determination. Rest assured, you will read it first with only one Mosman Agency!

See you on our blog where the Mosman debate continues.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Balmoral real estate, Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

5.02.10Robert Simeon14 Comments »

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The cocoon of life in Australia has never before been under greater scrutiny where many await the findings of the Henry Tax Review recommendations (reportedly 10 centimetres thick). Just what remains to be seen is, exactly what comes first? And just who will be indentified as swimming in those new “rivers of gold” that will allow The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) to stimulate his fast growing budget deficit. It would be difficult to imagine his “financial conservative” tag re-emerging!

The Late Kerry Packer once said “Now of course I am minimising my tax. And if anyone in this country doesn’t minimise their tax they want their heads read. Because as a government, I can tell you you’re not spending it so well that we should be donating extra.”

Welcome back to our first 2010 edition – where we celebrate our tenth year of Virtual Realty News (VRN) arriving weekly into your inboxes. Your scribe has somewhat mixed emotions relating to the year(s) ahead. Fort Fumble (Federal government) simply put; has a cash flow problem.

2009 produced just one election – Queensland. 2010 however, offers four elections being three state; Tasmania and South Australia in March and Victoria in November. The Emperor will also contest his second term which no doubt will be the taxing election given he has now frozen his (failed) climate cap for an economic sombrero! Rubbing hard on that inflation genie (growing from within) no need for predictions as 2010 will be either The Emperor ruling the roost or morphing a feather duster. Interest rates, inflation and our banks to name just a few are threatening and indeed most inclement. For example, this week Westpac withdrew from the home loan market when RAMS (Australia’s largest mortgage broker) was reined in (no loans) until Westpac gets its funding issues in order – what a message that sends to our property markets (especially to first home buyers).

Tim Mooney Photography

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Again, Australia’s finest aerial photographer Tim Mooney, will be showcasing his amazing captures with each and every edition of VRN. No wonder Prince William declared that he would like to buy a residence in Sydney – he spent plenty of time cruising Mosman foreshores and who could argue with this view. It is a fact that ‘Balmoral’ is very well known within the Royal family!

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The global financial crisis (GFC) dealt the death knell for every state and territory in Australia – all of which are now trading in budget deficit. Only Western Australia and Queensland can return to the black due to mining royalties.

Without the benefit of hindsight it appears more than likely that in five years time, state and territory governments will simply be made redundant given their inability to manage infrastructures within their electorates (did Henry pick that?) Fort Crumble (NSW government) is Australia’s finest example of incompetence personified – it’s still going backwards and has been doing so for well over a decade. At least our property markets are back on the road to recovery having posted a most impressive December quarter report card adding to the intrigue for the March 2010 results.

As strange as it may seem, if you cast your mind back prior to the GFC where, for housing prices to shake and move it could only start at the top-end. Australian Property Monitors (APM) identified that this is exactly what happened over the December quarter where average prices nationwide, recorded an average 12.1 per cent increase. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate – an unprecedented three consecutive months to finish 2009 at 3.75 per cent. Next Tuesday, when the Board meets for cucumber sandwiches and English breakfast tea, the cash rate will move to 4.00 per cent in another effort to curb our exuberance for bricks and mortar (the result of cash splashes and government gifts for first home buyers) – a false economy!

The latest RBA figures identify that consumers spent more than $20 billion on credit and charge cards in November (December figures not in yet) so do the maths as the average Australian credit card debt now sits at $3,196.00. Consumer confidence that is currently at near record levels, is in for some shock treatment, thanks to irresponsible government intervention. The top – end was slow, contracted and non responsive to the GFC, because these home owners were smashed in the recession of the early nineties. Now those who were too young to remember will have their turn and this is highlighted by the Westpac retreat this week from the home loan market.

As a result of overcast economic conditions during the GFC, landlords were aware that a paying tenant was a viable business model where APM identified that houses increased 2.2 per cent and apartments 2.4 per cent in the December quarter. With the economic clouds now clearing (given that in 2007 and 2008 rents rose by an average 12 per cent) the rental amnesty is now over and they will again be up, up, and away in 2010. Don’t forget that Australia’s immigration intake (rightly or wrongly) is the highest of any other country on the planet. Despite new construction remaining in the doldrums as consumption/immigration grows, the “lucky country” is failing miserably in the accountability stakes.

I make no apologies for my dislike of politicians (generally) especially when during a worldwide economic downturn, they sugar coat the economy with taxpayer monies. The Westpac decision this week flew under the political radar – quite conveniently.

Although, I do love the irony! The Henry Tax Review will target high income earners and they in-turn will benefit financially from the government- promoted property debutants. Interest rates are heading north – government intervention and opportunity knocks.

A pleasure to welcome Andrew Blaxland to the RWM fold. We have been chasing him for years and he is a perfect mix for our culture. Subscriber sales have jumped to $892,854,220 and hopefully our business model will record the magic billion this year (Australian record). In 2009 we led the market and this won’t change in 2010.

Welcome back friends and foes, it will be action packed for property voyeurs!

Cheers
^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

29.01.10Robert Simeon6 Comments »

Our office will be closed from December 24 until January 4 2010. For any parties wanting to contact one of our sales agents to arrange an inspection during the period that we are closed here are the contact phone numbers.
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Stephen Patrick – 0413 834 848
Richard Simeon – 0411 499 906
Robert Simeon – 0411 856 969
Mark Manners – 0403 032 700
Jacqui Rowland -Smith – 0411 714 442
Marize Bellomo – 0414 972 203
Taylor Fidan – 0423506055
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We wish each and every one of you a very Merry Christmas, a prosperous New Year, health and wealth in 2010 and beyond.

11.12.09Stephen PatrickNo Comments »

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Twelve months ago in our final edition of Virtual Realty News for 2008 I wrote – “The first six months of 2009 will be hard (not necessarily harder) and I believe the next six months will see a mild rebound leading to much stronger property markets!” As it turned out this prediction was one hundred per cent correct and in June 2009 we posted $63,000,000 in sales – the rest (just like that edition) is now history. Despite an avalanche of doomsday prophecies (and there were plenty) the missing link for the prophets was that they simply underestimated the power of the Internet and smart business models.

Every day, we spend an intoxicating amount of time in front of a computer – reading, writing and communicating. Just weeks prior to our final edition in 2008 I wrote – “I have said it before and I stand by my previous comments that in the recession of the early 1990’s there was no Internet and no electronic information highway that today, has played a dominant role in the recovery process.” Once informed, the decision making process is activated – the dominance of online during the global financial crisis is now a legacy that will continue to grow and dominate.

Some would suggest that it was a stimulus package but I would argue that those prophets would not know the difference between ‘Word’ and ‘Outlook’. Politicians make a habit of wording their outlook differently, based (more often) on spamming the minds of the electorate with nonsense.

The hive of activity as the Boxing Day – Sydney to Hobart race is fast approaching

www.timmooneyphotography.com

So what are our predictions for the Mosman property market in 2010? Don’t worry if you blink, as it won’t be moving that fast although we see strong signs of renewed confidence. Housing prices will increase but we see no need to panic because we see upward growth in property values – that is growth (not boom). The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced this week that lending for the construction of new homes rose dramatically in October increasing by 5.7 per cent. New home loans have now officially increased in 13 of the last 14 months – population explosion?

Certainly this argument is greatly assisted by the sale of a Perth mansion this week for a new Australian record of $57.500 million dollars. RP Data wrote on its blog this week – “The improvement in equities markets and business conditions has prompted many top end buyers to venture back into the market. For a while there were many bargains to be had – premium housing markets took the biggest value dive of any sector around the country in 2008 and now seeing the biggest jump. Values in the top end are now once again at record levels, having risen 2.4 per cent higher than the previous peak recorded back in February 2008. On an annual basis many of these premium suburbs have recorded some of the largest falls in median house prices however, it is clear with confidence returning many areas are set to bounce back or already doing so.”

Politicians and banks will provide great fodder for Virtual Realty News in 2010.

It has already started with this week’s Westpac “banana debacle” when it stupidly sent customers an email justifying its recent interest rate hike. Its rationale was to compare Westpac as the business selling banana smoothies – too much egg nog I thought, so have a look.

Maybe this graph presents a more accurate positioning from the “Bananas in Pyjamas” who must think all their customers are in a slumber with no Internet access.

Fort Fumble – Federal Government

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Fascinated by spending other people’s money (tax payers) whilst consumed with the belief that Australia still requires its stimulus package, The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) is currently holidaying in northern Europe. His preferred mode of transport has been letting him down – given Air Force One has ongoing mechanical problems – much like our economy.

Co-pilot Wayne Swan needs to masticate more, because his ears keep popping. As was pointed out in Letters to the Editor, this week in The Daily Telegraph. “Treasurer Wayne Swan fools no one with his ongoing bleating about banks raising interest rates much more than the Reserve Bank. What’s he doing to restore the competitive pressures that have collapsed in the financial services sector under his brief watch? While the Government discriminates against smaller financial institutions in its guarantees for wholesale funding, his utterances are simply deceptive posturing.” The co-pilot did approve the acquisition of St George bank to Westpac so have a banana smoothie on the house.

The Mad Monk is waiting in the wings although that too, may be an aborted takeoff with plenty of Liberals in the hanger. Malcolm Turnbull will probably head back to merchant banking where approval ratings will improve considerably.

Fort Crumble – NSW Government

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Where does one start – the most incompetent governing body in Australia’s history – the ‘violent crumble’ of all governments?

Robert Gottliebsen recently wrote on Business Spectator “We’re scaring off housing investors. Governments, whether they be in Canberra or in the states, often pass legislation without ever understanding its consequences.” He is referring to our housing crisis and talking about property investor taxes. “This means that if you hold an average investment property in Sydney and this pushes you over the $376,000 land tax limit, it makes no sense to invest in another. The annual holding cost figures look roughly like this: land tax 1.6 per cent; rates/water 1.0 per cent; mortgage interest 7.00 per cent plus; and maintenance/agent 1.0 per cent. That’s represents total costs of 10.6 per cent of your investment.” Rents will go through the roof over the next twenty four months.

Thoroughly enjoyed reading an article this week in The Daily Telegraph – NSW leads economic rebound. “NSW is leading the national economic recovery with forecasts of a miraculous turnaround in growth figures in the coming year. The State’s Budget is also expected to return to surplus a year earlier than expected, with a $872 million surplus expected in 2010 – 2011.” Technically it was broke well before the global financial crisis although this did not restrict the excitement of newly elected Premier Kristina “doodle dandy” Keneally “who has absolutely no tertiary qualifications” from shrieking (with accent) that the NSW Budget was “back in the black”. Oh dear!

No doubt “doodle dandy” would have been suitably impressed to learn that Nathan “no strings attached” Rees, brilliantly negotiated the sale of our three Manly JetCats that cost NSW taxpayers $3 million – with the purchaser flogging them off shore for more millions. Nathan “no strings” out, and Kristina “doodle dandy” in – so much to look forward to next year.

It has been our absolute pleasure delivering Virtual Realty News to your inbox each week and we are now into our tenth year (never missed an edition). I remain very confident that in 2010 we will be the very first Australian real estate agency to break the magic $1 billion in subscriber sales – currently at $887,154,220.

Special thanks to the aerial photographic gymnast of the sky Tim Mooney for his amazing photographs – a weekly highlight (for us) to explore his vast library of photography.

We thank you for your patronage. Defamation suits have been interesting and engaging (it’s just that I am an advocate for freedom of speech). The audit of our books by The Office of State Revenue was a highlight which re-inforced the fact that Virtual Realty News keeps annoying Forts Fumble and Crumble.

We will return to your inbox in late – January 2010 and go (weekly) all the way through to December 2010. It’s a tough job – but somebody has to do it!

Merry Christmas and have a brilliant, happy and prosperous New Year.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

11.12.09Robert Simeon10 Comments »

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An extraordinary week in Australian politics that resembled the “Battle of Sydney Harbour” or maybe “Battleships in the Big Bathtub” – where part of all contestants’ boundaries (by coincidence) were the high water marks of Sydney Harbour. The “Mad Monk” won line honours and yet, as with any race (fluid spill motions) there are always protests and on the very same day, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) broke tradition and raised the cash rate (+0.25%) for the third consecutive month – a day of threes!

The cash rate, now at 3.75 per cent, keeps heading north and whilst on north, rumours that “The Emperor” Kevin Rudd is auditioning for Getaway, remain totally unsubstantiated. We can however, be sure that somewhere, he is up – up – and away and if he does call a double dissolution, will have to return to our shores sooner rather than later.

Gerard Henderson wrote an interesting article that appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald – Lodge is a long way off, but the new man will shore up base. “Since its formation in 1944, the Liberal Party has won office from Labor on three occasions, Robert Menzies defeated Ben Chifley in 1949, Malcolm Fraser prevailed over Gough Whitlam in December 1975 and John Howard vanquished Paul Keating in March 1996.” What I did find amazing was this “It is most unlikely that Abbott can lead the Coalition to victory in next year’s election. No government has been defeated in its first election since 1931, when Labor prime minister, James Scullin, faced not only the impact of the Great Depression but also splits within his own party.”

Was the Mad Monk bunkered down at his Mosman headquarters – whilst observing troop movements at the harbour bunkers of Turnbull and Hockey? Loose lips sink ships. We asked Tim Mooney to fly over Tony Abbott’s Mosman bunker.

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Westpac has jumped the starting gun where as quick as a flash it raised its standard variable home loan by 45 basis points to 6.76 per cent which comes into effect today. On November 5, 2009 John Rolfe from The Daily Telegraph wrote Cut Government taxes on savings, says Westpac boss Gail Kelly. It would appear to some, that raising rates has nothing to do with household savings. National Australia Bank (NAB) increased its home loan rates by +0.25 per cent and then attacked Westpac with this announcement “We are determined to be competitive, to offer our customers a better deal and attract new customers to NAB. Today we are sending a message to customers at Westpac, and the other banks, that NAB can offer them a better deal.”

“Westpac CEO Gail Kelly argued yesterday (November 4, 2009) that if we all had more money salted away the country could have ducked the global financial crisis.” So in the aftermath now that the crisis has passed one can only then assume that Westpac is quickly making up for lost opportunities. Business Spectator – THE DISTILLERY: Waving Westpac through John Durie of The Australian concludes that the bank “is acting entirely rationally by extending the duration of its loans, chasing deposits aggressively as evidenced by its present campaign offering 6.8 per cent for 12 – month money and raising the cost of loans to protect profits. Its deposits now offer 130 basis points more than its closest competitors and 145 basis points more than the ANZ. This is a bank demonstrating its market strength emphatically, unworried by the potential for either market or political downside.” Or “roughly in simpatico is Matthew Stevens of The Australian who reasons that “Westpac’s decision to confront its customers with the nasty realities of our national funding dilemma serves to, once again, demonstrate the shaping dislocation of the Australian banking system triggered by the GFC. The latest credit growth numbers, for example, confirm the widening schism of the Four Pillars into a two – and – two – configuration. The data shows that the Commonwealth and Westpac now dominate the system growth like never before, speaking for 80 per cent of loan growth over October.” Wayne Swan approved the acquisition St George Bank by Westpac.

Market share of the big four banks, including BankWest and St George as at September 30 / Source: The Australian

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Macquarie Economics Research wrote Interest Rate Outlook – Gradual gets quicker

• “The RBA lifted the cash rate by 25bps in December. While the RBA’s view of the world has changed little since November, the news over the past month has reinforced their view that the recovery in train is on stable ground. We expect the cash rate to reach 4.50 % by the end of 2010.”

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Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Ric Battellino is indeed very upbeat about the Australian economy in that we can expect and look forward to years of economic growth on the back of booming resources, escalating population growth with rising household incomes. The RBA is predicting a strong escalation of house prices because Australia had entered “a new upswing” that would extend its record 18 years of continuous economic expansion.

RP Data revealed this week that house prices have doubled to an average $600,000 over the past ten years – the average Sydney house price was $300,000 back in 1999. The average price for an apartment in 1999 was $270,000 today it is $457,274.

The latest BIS Shrapnel Residential Property Prospects report identified that residential rent are expected to rise by an average 5.8 per cent a year over the next three years. This compares with a 5.7 per cent increase in 2009 and an average annual rate of 4.4 per cent between 2002 and 2008. Throw in an electricity bill expected to rise by 60 per cent over the next three years (according to an IPART report).

Fort Crumble was at it again and we now have our fourth premier in four years – recruitment companies would be well justified in opening up a sacked premier’s division. Now we have our first female premier – Kristina Keneally (no strings attached)! Can’t wait to see who makes up her front bench? Not that she will have any say in it! The Daily Telegraph is running a petition for an early election (To Sign)

Last edition of Virtual Realty News for 2009 next week – the chaos of this week would be very hard to beat. Thankfully it is controlled – however we all know that elected politicians make great puppeteers.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

4.12.09Robert Simeon1 Comment »

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The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) was back at it again recently when he commented on Australia’s skyrocketing population and quipped “I actually believe in a big Australia. I make no apology for that.” Well, Australia actually does need apologies, because critical infrastructure advice continues to fall on the deaf ears of our elected politicians.

After all, there must be something seriously amiss when past King of Spin, “Bobby Dazzler” Carr starts penning and pontificating on population policies in the Sydney Morning Herald. “Perish the thought that we can handle a bigger population” wrote the Dazzler “Some Australians must have felt similar estrangement when they read federal Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner’s defence of Australia’s runaway immigration targets, playfully comparing our population densities with those of Bangladesh.”

Then the Carr crash (with accompanying air – bag), “That Tanner is one of the best minds in federal politics will only deepen the rift between 90 per cent of Australians and their political and business leadership over population policy, or rather the absence of any policy except “more”.” It would now appear that “Bobby Dazzler” is over the selective hearing condition that plagued him in his reign of the Premier State from 1995 – 2005. The transformation went from Premier State to State of Decay to Fort Crumble and even though it did not happen overnight, it is now a nightmare.

Maybe this vacant plot of land might make a nice residential subdivision with very little chance of flooding?

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Sydney to squeeze in 640,000 new homes by Matthew Moore – Urban Affairs Editor the Sydney Morning Herald identified “A forty per cent increase in Sydney’s population over the next 20 years means the State Government has no option but to open up scores of suburbs for new developments, according to radical proposal for Sydney to build 640,000 new dwellings.”

For this to happen, Fort Crumble would need a plan so I went in search and found that it does not look pretty, as Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald revealed. Rees desperate to stand for something “In this respect he hopes to get something on the radar at Macquarie Street that has been lacking for the past 12 months – POLICY.”

They obviously can’t hear but thankfully they can read. “Number one on his list is transport. The transport blueprint that Rees promises to hand down sometime over the next three weeks is likely to be treated with some scepticism.” I guess he means this is like a homeless person entering Star City and requesting a seat at the High Rollers Table – after all Fort Crumble is broke. Back to Andrew “This is because of the large number of projects that Labor has promised, and then not delivered, in 14 years in power.”

Oops “Bobby Dazzler” was at the helm for ten of those years – although Fort Crumble would win a wood chopping event as they sure know how to wield that political axe.

• North West Rail link (promised in 1998 and axed)
• North West Metro (announced and axed)
• Bondi Beach rail link (promised then axed)
• Parramatta to Epping rail link (halved to Epping to Chatswood rail link)
• CBD/second Harbour crossing rail link (promised and axed)
• F6 through southern Sydney, (on again, off again)
• M5 duplication (long delayed)
• M4 East extension (long delayed)

Last month’s parliamentary pay increases and the fact that our Fort Crumble premier should be (and is) the highest “paid premier” in Australia have been vindicated. Alex Gooding had this interesting analogy on transport in the Sydney Morning Herald – Three times denied: western Sydney misses out on transport, again (great read) which really adds a poignant perspective on the political decision making processes.
Ongoing calamities when “ Paid Premier” Nathan Rees overturned an earlier decision to contribute $45.000 million for the newly anointed AFL’s western Sydney franchise to build a new home ground – again out came that axe (perish the thought of constituents contemplating the axing our “Paid Premier”)

Macquarie Equities Research – this week released this compelling graph in its Australian economics report. Sketching the outlook for housing “this note examines the recent trends in the housing sector and looks ahead to key factors to watch in 2010.” Looks like a tsunami to me.

Macquarie Equities Research – “In our view, the key factors to consider are the favourable fundamental determinants – strong population growth and constrained supply – alongside the deteriorating level of affordability. With these factors working in opposite directions, it suggests that the more extreme forecasts of a house price bubble or a price collapse will continue to prove wide of the mark.” More of this report in next week’s edition.

Back to Andrew Clennell’s report “Sydney is experiencing transport gridlock. Public transport services in the CBD are overcrowded, even though train services are inadequate and in many suburbs non-existent. In response, transport plans are announced and then re-announced. New rail lines are proposed but then abandoned and governments blame increasing costs and global financial problems.” He did forget to mention that over the last fourteen years the NSW government also collected the highest amount of taxes in Australia’s history. In real estate terms it would be “dilapidated home – run down, neglected, yet with plenty of potential”.

So let’s look at what is happening locally. I went to Wayne Swan’s Nation Building website to see what is happening in Mosman and North Sydney municipalities. Indeed Nation Building personified – bicycle paths, perimeter fencing, a shade structure, and a few water bubblers -no wonder our economy has rebounded with such exhilarating speed. All that it takes is a plan!

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Our councils are doing it tough mentally and physically although they are making plenty out of parking fines as Vikki Campion reported in The Daily Telegraph. Where you’ll cop a parking fine. North Sydney Council collected $7,000,000 which was up 48 per cent from $4,700,000 and Mosman Council $1,700,000 up 89 per cent from $910,000. It should also be noted that Mosman Council has been aggressively investing in new parking meters so one could expect a significant revenue increase with this return on investment.

In retrospect, if our population continues to explode it would then not be unreasonable to draw a conclusion that our water supplies face significant declines too (it did happen well before the proposed population explosion). Now when you renovate or build a new home, you must provide water tanks in accordance with local Council building regulations.

So why, in any Mosman or North Sydney parks, ovals or reserves, have the respective Councils not installed water tanks? After all they have only to connect to their very own street storm water. Look at the number of parks, ovals and reserves located below street level. Balmoral Oval, Rosherville Reserve, Forsyth Park, Tunks Park, Primrose Park, Cremorne Point Reserve, Sirius Cove Reserve, Allan Border Oval, Rawson Park, Spit Reserve and Reid Park. These are but a few that are all entirely dam- dependent and coincidentally, always have their sprinklers on when it is raining.

Warragamba Dam is presently at 55 per cent capacity and declining – although the Kurnell desalination plant is soon to be completed and that will supply up to 15 per cent of Sydney’s water. Of course we can’t leave out evaporation as this coincides with policy that has also evaporated.

Then again I have never been one to water down an edition.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

27.11.09Robert Simeon1 Comment »

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We all love it when a plan comes together, so spare a thought for those at Fort Crumble (NSW government) who still fail to understand a plan that actually works. We all know what happens next (as you will see) and it does not look pretty for this once proud state. A decade later those horrific and planned bureaucratic bungles are now taking a major toll – (one Fort Crumble can’t collect either). Ongoing bungles at Fort Crumble are considered to be “having a real hard go”.

Just as ironic is that in NSW, infrastructure has moved into economic decline and as with all declines, they have a habit of gaining momentum that ends in a huge crash. On the other hand, when a government drives constituents to other states, it could be construed as its very own plan to fight housing affordability – better known as reducing demand. In a nutshell, no plan works when you apply the supply v demand economic theory, without applying the basic principles of meeting supply first. Housing in Australia is facing an interesting twist, because when the tools to meet supply are down, prices will keep rising – more a result of failed government forces.

Pulpit Point, Hunters Hill (a planned estate to meet supply) photographed by Tim Mooney. The vacant marina berths may well be a result of the global financial crisis. Or was this photo taken on a weekend when the residents were out relaxing on picturesque Sydney Harbour ? (Sounds like a smart plan).

www.timmooneyphotography.com

In past editions I have referred to the ‘thirty something factor’ in Australian housing – one third rent, the other third own with a mortgage and the final third own without a mortgage. RP Data published its Weekly Property Pulse. “Housing finance data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) this week showed that finance commitments surged during September. In particularly there was a strong bounce back in first home buyer loans which was not surprising given that it was the last month in which the First Home Buyers Grant Boost was available in full.” Bear in mind that interest rates are also increasing so here is Household Estimates 2007 – 2008 graph which makes one wonder what it will resemble after the impact of the first home buyers grants in 2009.

This is how it looked (prior to First Home Buyers Grant Boost) when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was sitting around 7.25 per cent (RBA rates) and in September the cash rate was at 3.00 per cent. Currently, the cash rate is 3.50 per cent. Are the property debutantes who grabbed the grant, aware that post – global financial crisis, we are headed back to the future market? In 2010 – 11 the economy will pick up by 2.75 per cent rather than the suggested 2.25 per cent.

Whilst yet to be evaluated, rental property vacancy rates remain at record lows which in all probability forced many in rental markets to purchase property – the Sydney vacancy rate in October remained at 1.3 per cent. It is supposed to be 2.50 per cent to 3.00 per cent. According to RP Data, over the twelve month period, the weekly rents for houses (nationally) increased by 3.4 per cent (that was in a downturn). So why is The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) wasting money on renovating school halls when there is an obvious need to increase housing? (I will get to that shortly). However, this rental graph is simply scary.

In pursuit of answers, I found that the culprit (surprise – surprise) was our very own Fort Crumble when I read in the Sydney Morning Herald – “NSW not a developer’s nirvana … it’s planning hell” by Aaron Gadiel. “if you were to accept everything that has been said about development in NSW, you might think it was open slather; a developer’s heaven – that planning was out of control or that, development was running rampant.”

“Nothing could be further from the truth.”

“It is time for a reality check.”

“Developers are not fond of NSW. Not at all.” Based on the graph above I would suggest that those in rental accommodation would feel the same, given that when it comes to ‘bricks and mortar’ Fort Crumble is ‘as thick as a brick’ with absolutely no intellectual mortar between the layers.

“In development terms, NSW is neither one, nor even number two. After decades of more building activity than any other state in Australia, we lost our first place ranking to Victoria in 2008. To compound the indignity, in the same year we also fell behind Queensland.” What a plan!

“Victoria and Queensland have stolen a disproportionate share of Australia’s building investment. In the financial year ending in June, NSW accounted for only 23 per cent of Australia’s building activity, while we made up 32 per cent of Australia’s population. The Australian Bureau of Statistics only records one other occasion where NSW was anything but first – and that was in 1977.”

So let’s look at our esteemed Premier Nathan Rees who (as he keeps telling us) is “having a real hard go.” Not sure exactly what is going in NSW aside from the government. “The economic damage to NSW from its poor performance is dramatic. The construction activity made possible by developers contributes $78 billion to the national economy each year. For every $1 million in construction expenditure, 27 jobs are created throughout the broader economy. When we lose development dollars to other states, we’re losing income and jobs that rightfully belong to NSW residents.”

I refer you again to the above graph, “Sydneysiders have already been feeling the pinch of housing shortage. Rents in outer suburban Sydney have gone up by more than 20 per cent in the past two years. In the middle ring suburbs rents have jumped near to 30 per cent “. What a business plan.

For our Mosman residents I jumped over to Australian Property Monitors to access the Mosman occupancy data.

Fort Crumble is in total decay and Fort Fumble has absolutely NFI (No Financial Idea) as to exactly what is happening in the Australian property demographic markets. And my mantra is not to castigate – abuse or criticise our elected politicians on the astounding execution of their Nation Building expertise.

Clip of the Week

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In search, I went to YouTube – where I discovered one of the most amazing clips that signifies achievement. Unlike elected politicians, he is a man of few words yet his actions speak much louder than his few words. Backed by Delta Goodrem singing “Together We Are One” this clip should be re-played at every household and sales meeting.

Inspiration personified – Gavin’s Bridge Climb

Cheers

^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

20.11.09Robert Simeon4 Comments »