JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT!!

JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT!!

Some things will never change !! Aussies love a punt and making predictions. When will be the next interest rate increase? When will the Federal election be? So far not many have got a single prediction right! Then you have those who always have an opinion on the state of play with the property market. Ross Gittins of The Sydney Morning Herald wrote an amusing piece this week titled ”Why economists are hopeless forecasters”, where he mentioned an old joke “God created economists to make weather forecasters look good?” When it comes to the property market the ones who thus far have been on the money have been the real estate agents. They are after all, the eyes and ears of the market. Many of us have vehemently stated that there is no bubble, and the property market consists of niche markets. Still, many predict a crash even though our economy stays basking in sunshine. The data coming out of our industry is diminishing as each week goes by. We now refuse to hand over any data, as we are all aware of how incorrectly it is applied.

The June quarter home figures suggest that national house prices fell 8.5 per cent, and a further suggestion that Sydney house prices topped the list with falls as great as 8.5 per cent also. Shock horror it can’t be !! The Home Price Guide figures identified that Mosman property prices for the twelve months to June 30, 2004 were positive with 12 per cent capital appreciation, certainly contrary to other schools of thought. The average price for a Mosman home as at 30/6/2004 stands at an all time high of $1,939,428. For those looking to purchase, valium can only be prescribed on prescription. Now the apartment market in Mosman identified a modest 3 per cent increase over the twelve month period. Once again the average price for an apartment climbed to $582,790, which is exactly in line with what we have been reporting all year. Cremorne houses had an 11 per cent increase over the twelve months also where the average price of a home is $1,461,564. An apartment in Cremorne posted 5 per cent gains to see it sit at $560,741. Neutral Bay houses posted a modest increase of 1 per cent to see the average price achieve $1,188,415, and the average price for an apartment also climbed 4 per cent to $635,770. This is yet another example of why we look at the markets as niche markets, although in all honesty I would question the accuracy of these figures. To quote our ‘Governor of Moolah’, another “hopeless” rendition of the property market.

Once upon a time when eighty per cent of our properties were sold by public auction, it was much easier to collect the data. Today, it is near impossible. In our area, auctions still remain on the nose, although having said that we are hopeful that the up-coming summer sell-out (forever optimistic) will change that, as we always think ahead of our expectations. Auctions in Australia are a century-long tradition, and like a punt and a prediction, Aussies love them also. The hammer will fall again in Mosman. It is not the market that has taken a hammering, just those who wanted to predict it !! The safest and most proven way to predict the property market is with your eyes and ears. Our property market still holds plenty of excitement for those who want to take a punt on it, and that is not a prediction !! Cheers and clink ^__^ !!

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