It’s Up Up And Away Or Out Out And Away!

It’s Up Up And Away Or Out Out And Away!

Another mad week in Australia with Qantas (Queer And Nasty Try Another Service) shutting down all operations to create a massive spat with allegations that the government ignored warnings about Qantas grounding: Alan Joyce. We then heard that Qantas CEO Alan Joyce made a phone call to PM Julia Gillard but was ignored. This became all the more ironic when the PM made an urgent call recently to a fourteen year old boy who was arrested recently for buying marijuana in Bali. So Labor’s Fair Work Act has sent a signal that unions are on the way back prompting a savage rebuke with business to fight union Fair Work ‘wishlist’. Now we shall watch and see whether Qantas should compete or die – I think the latter.

Then we had news of a Greek referendum plan plunges markets into chaos prompting European leaders confront Greek PM. It will take Greece more than a few generations to recover from its debt debacle so it makes sense to see them booted from the Eurozone. I thought Charlie Aitken best summed it up when he wrote this week on his blog Ringing The Bell – “The Greeks need to remember they lied their way into the EU, they cheated with the help of Goldman’s to stay in the EU, and now the world is helping them stay in the EU. I strongly suspect the rest of the world won’t put up with any more rubbish from them and hopefully in six months time we won’t have a peripheral fishing hamlet running daily global financial market sentiment.” Touché!


It must have been a full moon this week with a November coup plotted on Julia Gillard – pressure on Kevin Rudd to push for top job. This gained further momentum with Kevin Rudd fuels leadership talk by failing to voice support for planned pokies reforms which has the federal Labor on another a hiding to nothing. Australians were then aghast to learn that Julia Gillard vows to double money to IMF – Ms Gillard will tell a session on reform of the IMF that Australia will double its special drawing rights (SDRs) quota – from SDR 3.3 billion (about $5.3 billion) to SDR 6.6 billion (about $10.6 billion). Australia has the most notorious government that thrives on giving other people’s money away.

Then we had some good news as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cuts interest rates to brace economy facing global headwinds with the cash rate dropping from 4.75 per cent to 4.50 per cent. This was the first cut in official interest rates since the global financial crisis (GFC) 2 ½ years ago and follows rises in unemployment and sharp falls in the prices of key resource exports. In 2012, I predict that the cash rate will end up at around 3.50 per cent so the RBA still has another 1.00 per cent to play with – which is great news for our property markets. For our top end markets to start punching above their weight again, we would need to see our ASX All Ordinaries Index at greater than 5,000 today it is 4,267.6.

The September update for Australia’s official house price index was released this week, indicating that house prices in Australia have continued to fall for nine consecutive months. The weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 1.2 per cent in the last quarter according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

It’s a very hard property market to pinpoint at the moment, with conditions appearing more reminiscent of the housing market in the early 1990’s (better known as “the recession we had to have”). From the above graph you will observe that for the last thirty years, Australian households have recorded record debt. It is somewhat ironic that in the recession of the early 1990’s, the cash rate was at 17.5 per cent where today it stands at 4.50 per cent. There is a dramatic upward trending from 2001 to 2010 although it should be noted the significant debt pay down during the GFC.

The great Australian rental inflation: Christopher Joye “There is a lot of talk about house prices in Australia. We hear much less about rental costs. Importantly for the inflation debate, house prices, which tell us the cost of buying an asset (namely a home), are not included in the ABS measures of inflation. However, the costs of securing accommodation in this country – that is, rents – are naturally a key component of the inflation data. Indeed, rents alone make up 6.7 per cent of the overall inflation index.” This can be explained by the data release that NSW leads revival of first – home buyer market – and the fix is on: AFG. The first home buyer market, compared to one year ago, is up 40 per cent, with NSW leading the charge. Rental escalations are driving the surge into property ownership.

Interesting to observe that new listings for Mosman houses (may) have peaked for 2011, with the number of houses on the market increasing by just one, from last week. More importantly, will the RBA’s cash rate move resonate with purchasers that the cash rate is on the way down and property prices have now technically bottomed? It would be refreshing to think so, although I hasten to add that real estate has never been an exact science. Residential real estate is an emotional acquisition although many have confused the transaction by applying a commercial formula with price determination.

    MOSMAN – 2088

    • Number of houses on the market last week – 148
    • Number of houses on the market this week – 147
    • Number of apartments on the market last week – 103
    • Number of apartments on the market this week – 110

    CREMORNE – 2090

    • Number of houses on the market last week – 18
    • Number of houses on the market this week – 16
    • Number of apartments on the market last week – 34
    • Number of apartments on the market this week – 35

    NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

    • Number of houses on the market last week – 18
    • Number of houses on the market this week – 18
    • Number of apartments on the market last week – 92
    • Number of apartments on the market this week – 98

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate – Click Here For this weeks open for inspections – Click Here

So has the tide turned? When will the All Ords climb back over 5,000 again? It will happen and we all know what happens to property prices then. Buyers are knocking opportunity instead of seeing that opportunity knocks!

What confuses the issue further is that everyone, for some strange reason, wants to buy in a vendor’s market yet are reluctant to engage in a purchaser’s market. Go figure?

Cheers ^__^

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