It’s about to get very interesting!

It’s about to get very interesting!

Get set for a roller coaster ride through to Christmas (and beyond) where once again it will be the financial markets, not property markets that will attract all the attention. Thanks to the global financial crisis (GFC) we can say to some extent that we have been there and done that – what remains to be seen is how destructive phase ll will be? It looks like being horrific for Europe and the United States.

“A more severe crash than the one triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers could be on the way, according to alarm signals in the credit markets. The cost of insuring RBS bonds is now higher than before the taxpayer was forced to step in and rescue the bank in 2008” – market crash ‘could hit within weeks’, warn bankers. This week ANZ chief executive warned World on edge of crisis where he labelled Europe “a mess” and warned that failure by political leaders to tackle economic problems could lead to a much greater global crisis.

Back home there have been some fascinating observations on the political consequences of Australia’s resources boom where the Gillard government is fast-learning that there is more to life than just mining. Labor turns the boom into a crisis a great insight by Paul Kelly, Editor – at – large The Australian. “The crisis now engulfing Australian manufacturing has been long predicted and much foreseen yet the inescapable impression is that our decision – makers have been taken by surprise and are scrambling to do something.”

The government has been caught out and the observers on the hill are not impressed.

BUY PRINT

It would be fair to suggest that we are at critical crossroads although Australia’s public debt to GDP ratio is among the healthiest in the OECD at approximately 22 per cent. Sentiment has Fort Fumble not governing, drowning with Julia Gillard back to rock bottom: Newspoll. The ongoing Craig Thomson prostitution scandal further ignites: hard questions will not go away. I don’t believe it will bring the government down – see you Thomson, raise you Wilkie so Australia’s government now hangs on the actions of just two individuals. The flip side – Crean for PM? Why the bookies think it’s not so far fetched. Whatever the case Graham Richardson says the ‘awful smell’ of the Thomson affair won’t go away. Just over 365 days ago the ‘new paradigm’ is looking as vibrant as Australia’s manufacturing industry.

A minority government has proved to be an abysmal failure which has been reinforced in the polls and the reality that Australia’s Prime Minister has until Christmas to turn things around. If you look at Australia’s political history, John Howard lost the 2007 election when he ran Work Choices. Kevin Rudd was done and dusted on the hopeless handling of the mining tax and Julia Gillard will fall over her carbon pricing scheme.

Source: The Australian

Residential and commercial construction remains in the doldrums, according to the latest ABS statistics new home building slumps in June quarter. Obviously “building a better Australia” does not apply to residential and commercial construction? Three population bubbles will cause housing demand, not supply, to skyrocket even though it’s fascinating that rising inflation makes housing more affordable. Well we are not building, so I have to agree with Christopher Joye that house prices will be 55% higher in a decade.

Last week, we revealed the Mosman clearance rates for houses so this week we investigated the adjusted clearance rates for apartments and townhouses. Having looked at the data results from RWM Research Department, I wonder if Mosman has the lowest clearance rates in Sydney.

Here are the Mosman townhouse/apartment sales from 2001 to 2011 – just like the house statistics they failed to reach 50 per cent.

Source: Domain Property Data

  • 2001 – 106 auctioned, 52 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 44%
  • 2002 – 114 auctioned, 66 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 49%
  • 2003 – 96 auctioned, 47 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 42%
  • 2004 – 66 auctioned, 25 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 28%
  • 2005 – 89 auctioned, 31 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 29%
  • 2006 – 74 auctioned, 31 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 30%
  • 2007 – 62 auctioned, 38 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 47%
  • 2008 – 95 auctioned, 43 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 37%
  • 2009 – 41 auctioned, 16 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 27%
  • 2010 – 77 auctioned, 38 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 38%
  • 2011 – 48 auctioned, 23 sold with an adjusted clearance rate of 33%

MOSMAN – 2088

.

• Number of houses on the market last week – 103
• Number of houses on the market this week – 105
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 98
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 99

CREMORNE – 2090

.

• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week – 13
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 30

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

.

• Number of houses on the market last week– 9
• Number of houses on the market this week – 7
• Number of apartments on the market  – 70
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 70

Now this is where it gets interesting – if the Mosman housing market is as strong as we believe it to be the number of houses available should start reducing over the next month.

For this week’s sales in Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

We have been asked to use our database to try and assist finding Daniel who went missing six weeks ago – so if you please see him follow the contact details on the Facebook page – Daniel O’Keeffe.

Let’s hope that next week, the discussion is about economics and not a politician’s callisthenics with prostitutes.  Or should that be a wandering wallet!!

Cheers ^__^

5 Responses to “It’s about to get very interesting!”

  • Ann says:

    Thanks Robert,

    Amazing how poorly auctions perform in the area. Further the trend is the same over more than a decade.

    I don’t know where to start with the mess in Canberra.

    However, it must be great for the Canberra Doctors and Pharmaceutical Companies, who would be selling a heap of sleeping tablets for Members of Parliament who cannot sleep at night.

  • If John Brogden’s political career was brought to an end by a passing comment, how is it right that Craig Thomson who has been accused of so much more, is still in his position?

  • That would be innocent until proven guilty. Craig Thomson has vehemently denied the allegations so there must be a presumption of innocence. Of course that would change significantly if he is proved to have spent the Union monies on prostitutes.

  • Eleanor Smith says:

    Thanks for posting about Daniel O’Keeffe, Rob. He is a family friend, a son, a brother and a partner, and we all hope he’s found alive and well. Getting his photo out there is our best hope.

  • Ann says:

    Hope they find Daniel

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