I Will Survive – Business V Governments

I Will Survive – Business V Governments

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Without a shadow of a doubt (in my opinion) the best critique of the Australian economy is the Business SpectatorCEO pulse where on a quarterly basis Australia’s leading chief executives deliver their (not sugar coated) thoughts on just exactly how they see the Australian economy. CEOs on the Australian Economy:

  • CEO(s) remain far more optimistic about the prospects for their own organisation than they are about the Australian economy. Optimism about prospects for the Australian economy and their own organisations in the next 12 months, have decreased slightly compared to Q2 this year and Q3 last year.
  • Expectations around employment, capital investment, profit, sales and operating expenditure in the next 12 months are down slightly from last quarter. The proportion of CEO(s) expecting increased profit over the next 12 months is down significantly to 49% from 64% last quarter.
  • CEO scorecard for the government’s performance in managing the economy is steady at 2.9 out of 10. While the longer term trend is downwards, it is not significantly different from the score given at the same time last year.

Look at this how you want however when a government can’t even reach a score of 3 out of 10 the resonating message is pretty clear. In February 2010, the scorecard peaked at 5.4 out of ten and this has continued in a downward spiral reaching 2.6 out of 10 in September 2011.

BUY PRINT

Quote of the Week – would have to go to Peter Costello, “Never in budget has history so little been promised so many times.” On its own measure Labor falls well short an interesting assessment from a previous treasurer who delivered 12 budgets. Swan’s grip on surplus gets slippery which is exactly what we alluded to a few weeks ago when we suggested prepare for an early election. Not surprising then are this week’s revelations that Wayne Swan and Julia Gillard’s MRRT has thus far posted a zero return. Obviously, the ‘Big 3’ mining companies have executed the perfect sting on the government when they sat down to negotiate the MRRT.

I love reading articles about the top-end property market – Homeowners confident but luxury market loses lustre. A great read by Christopher Joye which clearly identifies that NSW remains the most bullish top-end market in Australia. Mosman is arguably performing the best of Australia’s entire top-end suburbs with reports our office has posted another double digit sale getting stronger and stronger. When property markets are in a downward correction mode, the top-end gets punished the most, but when it starts to recover it always posts the fastest capital appreciation. Historically, top-end property markets perform at optimum levels when a Liberal government is in power so we sense a hedging of bets on the basis that Australia will go to the polls in March 2013.

Last week we reported that the number of Mosman houses on the market was 22 percent down on this time last year, this week a slight increase to 23 percent. We predict this number will jump significantly in coming weeks to approximately 40 percent. For example: 45 Shadforth Street Mosman sold in just one week – with a one week settlement.

Source: Domain Property Monitors

    MOSMAN – 2088

    • Number of houses on the market last week– 115
    • Number of houses on the market this week – 118
    • Number of houses on the market this time 2011 – 152
    • Number of apartments on the market last week – 104
    • Number of apartments on the market this week – 101
    • Number of apartments on the market this time 2011 – 105

    CREMORNE – 2090

    • Number of houses on the market last week– 14
    • Number of houses on the market this week – 13
    • Number of houses on the market this time 2011 – 15
    • Number of apartments on the market last week – 22
    • Number of apartments on the market this week – 20
    • Number of apartments on the market this time 2011 – 35

    NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

    • Number of houses on the market last week – 18
    • Number of houses on the market this week – 20
    • Number of houses on the market this time 2011 – 16
    • Number of apartments on the market last week – 65
    • Number of apartments on the market this week – 50
    • Number of apartments on the market this time 2011 – 92

For this week’s sales in Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate.
• Click Here


For this week’s open for inspections
• Click Here

So Wayne Swan bets on a housing recovery which I find absolutely hilarious given as treasurer, he has absolutely no role to play. Our Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is totally independent of what transpires in Canberra. Our cash rate is at an historic low simply because the world economy is toxic.

An election looms! I have a better chance of riding the winner at next month’s Melbourne Cup than the government has of delivering a budget surplus. We don’t expect the RBA to cut rates on Cup day – but we do expect to hear Wayne Swan telling all and sundry that his government continues to deliver the lowest cash rate.

No doubt a CEO score of 2.9 out of 10 on how the government is running the Australian economy is nearly on par with Australia’s cash rate. Although John Symond nailed it this week – No risk of housing bubble but political bickering not helping buyer confidence.

In a perfect world, Australia’s leading CEO(s) would be determining Australian economic policy – not elected politicians who have no experience running a business. Kudos to Business Spectator for their CEO blue print – I know who I would back.

Cheers ^__^

4 Responses to “I Will Survive – Business V Governments”

  • Deb Davis says:

    Robert, a most relevant and timely article , thank you !

  • Gordon says:

    “Never in Budget history has so little been promised so many times.”

    Costello’s right on the money, as usual.

    But any suggestion that the Gillard ‘Independents’ Green government might be similar to the previous NSW government is obviously wrong.

    In fact, it seems the GIG is absolutely identical to the multi-Premier debacle we had for 16 long years 🙁

  • Many thanks Deb 🙂

    Gordon – I don’t think those GIGs would be smiling should a March election come to fruition! What was that about having the last laugh 🙂

  • Robbie Mac says:

    Ah yes – the oft promised Federal Budget surplus – the bastard lovechild born of political stupidity and economic terrorism.

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