Going Once, Going Twice And Not Sold

Going Once, Going Twice And Not Sold

.A very interesting question was raised this to week as to what exactly is the best and most accurate way of determining the strength of the property market? For years I have argued that the current methodology is both flawed and lazy. For example in Sydney we have approximately 637 suburbs in 38 local government areas, it would make much more sense if the property data aggregators compiled data based on the local government areas to provide a more exacting position than say just Sydney.

Misleading property auction figures ‘put buyers at risk’ “Inflated and inaccurate auction clearance rates may push misinformed buyers into the market, according to AquAsia strategist Mark Bayley. At best, these figures provide only a rough guide to a small sample of the overall sales, and that sample is inherently biased.”

Allow me to clarify this further, according to APM Property Data Mosman houses has thus far recorded 284 sales of which 223 were by private treaty and 57 by auction – which actually comes out at 280 not the 284 that they report. Mosman has an adjusted clearance rate of 43 per cent although 61 per cent of these sales were recorded by private treaty we see that just 20 per cent were sold at auction. The reason why we hear so much about the clearance rates is that this is the fastest way media companies can talk the market up in an attempt to lure in vendors to advertise in their newspapers. It is as simple as that and it has been happening since Adam was a boy.

PortBotany

SYDNEY AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHY 

BUY PRINT

Last week we did an analysis of the Mosman housing market sales in 2013, 2012 and 2007 to see how the market was tracking so this week we had a look at Mosman apartments.

Mosman Apartment Sales 1 January 2013 to 14 November 2013

Total – 371
Average Price – $973,076
Private Treaty – 273
Public Auction – 48
Total Value Sold – $361,011,098
Adjusted Clearance Rate – 63 per cent

And you’re right, the numbers of sold don’t add up they are 50 short.

Mosman Apartment Sales 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012

Total – 467
Average Price – $842,615
Private Treaty – 380
Public Auction – 54
Total Value Sold – $393,501,098
Adjusted Clearance Rate – 36 per cent

The discrepancy this time is 33 properties.

Mosman Apartment Sales 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2007

Total – 482
Average Price – $852,660
Private Treaty – 338
Public Auction – 62
Total Value Sold – $410,982,261
Adjusted clearance rate – 55 per cent

The discrepancy this time is 82 properties.

The most noticeable statistic here is that in 2007 the average price was $852,660, in 2012 $842,615 and in 2013 it has jumped to $973,076 which will get higher as there are many more sales to be recorded. Out of interest for Mosman houses in 2007, the average price was $3,035,363, in 2012 $2,852,759 and in 2013 it sits at $2,677,052 where we would expect this is to conservatively hit $3,000,000 once the properties start to sell. In September/October RWM sold over $100 million where approximately 75 million of those sales were kept confidential until settlements take place in early to mid-2014.

Interesting piece by Steve Keen who is notorious for calling the property markets incorrectly where finally he admitted in Business SpectatorI will be wrong on house prices. Given the lowest ever cash rate it looks at this point in time that the Lower North Shore property markets are in for a bumper 2014.

Forget watching the clearance rate numbers just watch the numbers of properties on the market in Virtual Realty News. In last week’s edition I pointed out in 2012 out of 52 weeks there were on 33 occasions more than 100 houses on the market. In 2013 Mosman has only broken the 100 mark on just four occasions. Based on this week’s numbers it looks like we won’t see Mosman hitting triple figures again in 2013.

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 112
• Number of houses on the market last week – 96
•Number of houses on the market this week – 92
• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 106
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 55
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 54

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 13
• Number of houses on the market last week – 8
• Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 21
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 15
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 16

NEUTRAL BAY – 2089

Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 20
• Number of houses on the market last week – 10
•Number of houses on the market this week – 10
• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 66
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 32
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 33

Source: Australian Property Monitors

For this week’s sales in Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate
Click Here

For this week’s opens for inspection
Click Here

Sanity prevailed over at Mosman Council this week when the elected councillors voted unanimously to vote against the proposed subdividing of Mosman into five new suburbs. The Mayor wrote in an email “I regret that in my recent Special Occasional Letter discussing the possible use of geographical names in Mosman I inadvertently provided significant misinformation. As described there, the intention behind the Council proposal for consultation on the use of historic geographic names, such as Balmoral and Beauty Point, was to allow residents the choice whether to use the local historic name or simply Mosman as was traditionally done.

Today, in response to Council questioning, the Geographical Names Board advised Council that it does not allow this choice. If an area were renamed, residents of that area would be required to adopt that address albeit that all areas would share a 2088 postcode.”

Well I can’t see this proposal ever seeing the light of day again.

Cheers to that! ^__^

One Response to “Going Once, Going Twice And Not Sold”

  • Brian says:

    This seems like a huge beat up to me. Split Mosman into five suburbs ? Where did this come from ?

    The suggestion I had heard was a desire to bring back the old location names within the suburb of Mosman that have been in use since the Capt. Hunter named Georges Head when the first Fleet came up from Botany Bay. They have never been more than location/place names, and never suburbs.

    I believe these names were dropped as stand alone postal addresses at the ruling of Australia Post, not the GNB, when the sorting of our mail moved from Mosman PO to the St Leonards mail centre, apart from mail addressed to P O Boxes. We, like many others, have retained our location/place name as part of our formal address anyway, as in Georges Heights, Mosman, NSW 2088, to make it easier for our out of suburb visitors to find us.

    Seems to me someone had confused suburbs with location/place names and then things went viral !

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