Four new P’s – polls, populism, performance and of course, profits!

Four new P’s – polls, populism, performance and of course, profits!

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Actually not that different with the three P’s that pertain to property – position, position and position. Throw in politicians and bankers and what we have is the 2010 equivalent of economic soup that is murky and far from palatable. During the global financial crisis (GFC) Westpac and the Commonwealth banks wrote approximately eighty (80) per cent of all mortgages which explains why today, collectively, they own the largest mortgage books. Alan Kohler wrote on The Drum that banks only have themselves to blame which has caused a stir given many consumers are losing faith in our pillars of society. Of course, there has been plenty of gratuitous PR advice for our friends in banking although the politics of banking was intelligently addressed when Janet Albrechtsen wrote in The AustralianLet’s hear the positive story from the banks.

Plenty of rhetoric this week as home owners angered by increases in interest rates then news broke that the Big Four banks to dump exit fees as backlash grows against lenders. Then late this week ANZ raises rates, scraps exit fees at or about the same time as ASIC bans banks from double – dip mortgage exit fees which means banks that charge customers to establish a mortgage, will no longer be able to apply contentious exit fees. Too early to say who will get the last laugh with this announcement – possibly bank establishment fees will rise? Certainly the four new P’s won’t change.

CircularQuay

BUY PRINT

Is the landscape at Circular Quay about to change? Special deal on city skyscraper as a giant residential tower, double the size of any other building in Circular Quay, is expected to be approved soon. The site Gold Fields House is set to become a luxury apartment block that will tower 191 m above Circular Quay making it Sydney’s eighth tallest building. Sydney has only one of the top 10 tallest buildings in Australia – which prompts the discussion for progress of our capital city.

Australian Property Monitors released its House Price Report for September 2010 and here are the key findings:

  • National median house prices remain effectively unchanged at +0.1 per cent for the quarter with annual house price growth slowing to +11.5%
  • Most capital cities experienced falls in prices over the quarter; however the major markets of Melbourne and Sydney bucked the trend recording positive quarterly house price growth
  • National price units (excluding Tasmania) have fallen slightly, down -0.4% for the quarter, with annual growth falling sharply to +6.5%
  • Unit prices have fallen in all cities except Melbourne, with Brisbane experiencing the largest price decline, falling -2.8% for the quarter

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Source: Australian Property Monitors

SYDNEY

  • House prices increased slightly by +0.7% in the September quarter, which is the third consecutive quarter of slowing growth.
  • Unit prices have started falling for the first time since 2008, recording -0.1% for the quarter.
  • Sydney’s median house price is now $634,346 and the median unit price has fallen slightly to $436,714.
  • Annual house price growth sits at +11.3% and unit price growth is at +7.3%, both trending downwards.

weekly-snapshot_420-420x0

Weak demand made for rate surprise all things considered the clearance rates are positive, although the most important conclusion would be that prices are flat lining. It is only natural that auction clearance rates fall on rate rise and we are seeing anecdotal sales evidence. One interesting observation in Mosman at present, is that private treaty sales are producing the highest volume.

Here is the comparative analysis for Mosman houses:

Mosman Houses 2009 – 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2009

  • Total sold – 322
  • Private Treaty – 281
  • Public Auction – 41
  • Total Value Sold – $815,649,751
  • Median price – $2,094,000
  • Average price – $2,564,936
  • Highest price – $13,200,000 (RWM)

Mosman Houses 2010 – 1 January 2010 to 10 November 2010

  • Total sold – 292
  • Private Treaty – 219
  • Public Auction – 73
  • Total Value Sold – $639,048,555
  • Median price – $2,100,000
  • Average price – $2,468,570
  • Highest price – $12,600,000 (RWM)

It should be noted that with the 2010 house sales, that the vast majority of sale prices are yet to be recorded, so we expect this year’s total value for houses sold, to be considerably higher $750,000,000 approximately. For example, this week, RWM recorded the second highest house sale for Mosman in 2010 which is yet to be recorded. Here is the Macquarie Research Economics Forecast where it should be noted that the banks have already moved the cash rate to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Macquarie Research Forecast for Quarter 1 – 2011. So what we now have is an official cash rate and a real cash rate, which I will call the “real, official cash rate” – ROCR!

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So to the four new P’s – polls, populism, performance and of course profits which continue to stymie our Forts Fumble and Crumble. The politician who should have been Premier of NSW, Blacktown MP Paul Gibson ‘Fed up’ NSW Labor MP quits so now thirteen (13) Labor MP’s have announced their retirement in the past two months. Paul Gibson “we’ve moved from platform and policy and pursued a poll driven agenda.” Fort Crumble is shambolic and an embarrassment where Transport Minister John Robertson has already called his transport removalists to grab the now vacated seat. Thirteen, with more to come as powerbroker Joe Tripodi quits. Premier Kristina “Bambi” Keneally has (unofficially now) been placed on the endangered species list due to a lack of interest – polls, populism, performance and no profit.

A perfect dismount from the strangest election ever – You can say that again! The four new P’s continue to dominate as Julia Gillard losing ground to Tony Abbott, News poll shows given the continuance of Labor’s policy woes pile up. No doubt we will be hearing and reading plenty more about this in the months to come. Fort Crumble continues to disintegrate – polls and populism shape public perceptions. Fort Fumble relies on the hope factor – Swan’s numbers looking rubbery when more ‘courage’ needed in spending cuts, says Access Economics. Polls, populism, performance and of course profits continue to threaten the capability of Fort Fumble.

Back in 2000, Virtual Realty News subscriber sales sat at zero when we launched our online platform. Today, they sit at $998,770,220 so we are now $1,229,780 from breaking the $1,000,000,000 mark.

Unfortunately, this week’s $10.000 million plus Balmoral sale did not qualify – another big week of local sales which suggests a strong run of property transactions through to Christmas.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

5 Responses to “Four new P’s – polls, populism, performance and of course, profits!”

  • TMW says:

    My Dear Robert
    Lets try again ! Did enjoy this weeks edition especially the comparison figures of 2009/2010.I look forward to your office cracking the 1 billion online mark. I will make a special effort to come over to the deep north and have lunch with your good self,Richard and of course the Senior Partner Steve.One would expect a couple of those fine white wines you used to collect in the office in the hey days !!

    Cheers and Beers

    TMW

  • Ann says:

    Dear Robert,

    We need to amend the term Fort Crumble, as a fort needs to be defendable on all sides and this fort is lucky if it has one side.

    Good Luck hitting the Billion later this month, or maybe later this afternoon!

  • TMW,

    Why thank you – how is life over in the Beaten Suburbs? Lunch would be an excellent idea – however on this occasion we will organise the wine list. I’m still getting over your last selections of Asti Spumante and Mateus Rose which went out in the 1970’s 🙂

    Also, requesting Chicken Maryland in a fine Mosman eatery may be acceptable in Double Bay – however it is not the done thing here in Mosman.

    I will send you an email and I assume that you are still on dial – up?

  • TMW

    Great to hear from you, whilst you lie back taking it easy making a space for us in your conjested luncheon schedule. We’re in as long as you drown out my brother. Cheers.

  • TMW
    Would love to see you back on the north side, we miss your daily verbal stoushes with Robert, which you invariably won…by knock out, in the early rounds.

    Hope the family is all well, as you can see our R&W family is all well, Mosman Real Estate is alive after a quiet winter..thought it would never end, but it is back with a bang the last 4 weeks.

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