The post electoral shin dig over at the back paddock had to be cancelled, due to a lack of support which sparked headline act Midnight Soil to go batty as they were coming out of retirement after agreeing to make a one–off election appearance.

Like a bull at a gate, the Mad Monk waved his red robe Abbott attacks Labor’s ‘civil war’ and the mantra could he heard all over the paddock reject Labor: voters’ message to independent MP’s as the hollow men led Labor to disaster. Then the head heifer corralled one of her baby bulls when PM bans powerbroker Arbib from appearing on Q&A. Such was the Labor of Love given the odds shorten on next Labor leader where it keeps getting worse as Gillard in big trouble no what happens given we have a tortuous road to government.

BUY PRINT

Back at the barn, even the cats showed their respective claws as the meows fast turned into a hissy fit McKew a ‘Labor hero’: Keneally then axing Rudd a strategic blunder:McKew. Then Rudd’s fault for dismal result, says Keneally although the alley cats were purring at a sneak preview of a Keneally bloodbath when the cool cats over in NSW go to the polls next March. NSW Labor headed for wipe out which brought about a familiar change after Julia … it’s the real Kristina.

Over in the northern paddock, more cats were hysterically meowing (as against dogs barking) where there was plenty of crying over spilt milk. I won’t suffer Rudd’s fate, says Bligh then Keneally lashed out at Bligh’s ‘NSW disease’ jibe. The 2010 Federal Election today resembles Old MacDonald’s farm although at this point we don’t envisage that the war will be enough to see our soldiers brought back home to restore order given disparities in voters’ priorities are even more stark now. Plenty of cries to cut the crap as electorates keep asking where is the vision? Now we have fighting on two fronts Labor war hurting bid for power and now Coalition begins its own civil war.

What spring promises for the market as sales sizzle, auctions cool although for the time being our property markets wrestles with election uncertainty. Australia this time around won’t be paying that much attention to what is happening in America given Obama running out of time to fix economy. This was not helped when this week it was revealed that US existing home sales dive to 15 – year low which is otherwise known as tumbling houses. Quite the opposite here in Australia given the latest HIA – CBA Housing Affordability Report identifies that more than ever before our property markets are out of reach. We are seeing some areas where prices are dropping then on the other side of the coin the prices are now increasing. Household debt in Australia has risen dramatically over the past three decades, but the number of home repossessions in Victoria and NSW is on the decline because we are keeping up the payments.

Last week we brought you the Dyson Austen Top 10 Prestige Residential Survey for January – March 2010 so this week we continue with the April – June 2010 results.

Interesting to note that the Eastern Suburbs recorded eight of the sales and Mosman posted two sales with RWM recording one of these two transactions. There are two interesting conclusions that can be observed from this data. Firstly, the top–end sales appear to be rebounding with suggestions that the upcoming Spring/Summer markets may see increased competition for these trophy homes. This was always going to happen – just that nobody really knew when.

Secondly, we have a new record since the global financial crisis (GFC).

The Dyson Austen Report, Simon Feilich acknowledged “if we look at this result (above) and the highest transaction ever achieved in the survey history ($45 million – Q3 2008) both sales occurred at a time when the $AU/US has just been devalued by 12% and almost 10% respectively.”

“NOTE: The jumbo prestige residential market is directly linked to the performance of the equity market, with the only other main external factor being the $AU/US rate as seen in Q3 2008 and the latest released Q2 2010.”

Since the election debacle the $A has started to fall again, due largely to the uncertainties ahead. It appears the nobody can form a government and even if they do, it will be a s#*& fight with all the internal bickering.

So I predict we will all be headed back to the polls in October.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Congratulations,

Finally we are in the Grand Final for the plate this weekend ..where we deserve to be in my opinion. To me it really is a play off for third or fourth in the main competition overall as the promotion of three teams and the wet weather completely stuffed up the points system. The good news is we win a plate if we win on Sunday.

Now … last Sunday’s game – what a great result. Only minutes before the game did we know who was fit enough to run on. The walking wounded and the sick all arriving in all forms of disrepair!

At one stage we only had 14 and looking shaky.

With Eddy still on crutches and Jock in fashionable moon boots, Alex out from a neck injury the day before, ( luckily just bruising), Mitch, Sam and Banjo all limping from bashing each other up the day before (Joey’s v Shore) and Josh climbing out of bed with a virus to help out, I was starting to think this was going to be a tough day in the Oval Office!

However, the boys all agreed that had to ramp up that little extra to overcome the adversity, Campbell took over as skipper, Will Collard stepped into Banjo’s big boots ,Oscar moved to centre Sam Harrison from back row to wing again.. so on we ran into battle.. shaken but not stirred!

As I have stated previously about Burraneer they are a very tough defensive side, I found out on Sunday nine of their boys play rugby league on Saturday, hence their great tackling defence.

We changed tactics and decided to attack down the blind side away from their crash tackling centres or chip over them in open play.

From the kick – off the boys were positive and aggressive, Balmoral Oval was hard and dusty as both sides launched into it. After a few minutes Will Collard cleverly switched play down the blind side and sent Sammy H on a run, as the defence closed he grubbered ahead… the race was on, Ben Reader was on the spot (as always) to gather the ball and race over to score. Locky  P converted from midway from the side line … Mosman up 7-0.

The forwards were right into it, Tommy was crunching them in defence and giving them grief with his usual bullocking runs. Ben Wicket continued his good form in the tight stuff his work rate better every week and making his physical presence felt, as was Hugh and Gus (these two are really hitting there straps as well now) and Josh who was running hot in form and temperature (now about 101*) .. in short the engine room were all running hot. The reason we are winning is our tight five is  dominating and giving us go forward. Well done you boys – another outstanding effort.

Joe was winning some fantastic lineout ball and making his usual thousand (in Ray Warren voice) tackles a game, and Ben Reader was mighty at the breakdown. Joe and Ben shut down Burraneer’s best dominant forward at the breakdown, as discussed prior to the game, this was a huge challenge and they rose to the occasion.

Campbell as usual was dominant all over the paddock and was having a great captains game leading by example, he was rewarded soon after with another try from our chip and chase tactics, which saw Burra reeling and now down 14-0 after the conversion next to the posts.

Burra hit back, and soon scored out wide and it was 14 -5 shortly before half time.

In the backs Oscar was having a whale of a game tackling everything that moved in midfield, Ben was doing likewise and setting up some good backline moves for Remy to chime in and give our winger Sam and Mitch a few good runs.

Locky at 5/8 was having his best game in that position varying play nicely with some kicks ,runs and slick service, but more importantly .. bringing the backs up in a good straight defensive line.

After the break, Josh was having a well earned rest, Locky Miller replaced him with fresh legs and got stuck in straight as he always does, then Banjo and Sam Allen came on to see if they could put in half a game with their crook legs as Mitch and Will (who had a great game for us filling in for Banjo) had a rest.

Both sides set off at a cracking pace again, the game tightened no team was giving an inch, the boys from Burra were not going down without a fight, but nobody messes with the Mosman 13A Whales!!

Banjo turned them around again with his clever kicking, Sam Allen had a great 50m run after a good backline move, we were playing good clever 15 man rugby everyone from Remy at fullback (still in great form) to Gus at hooker involved.

A  terrific penalty goal from Locky P put us ahead 17-5 with some breathing space, but Burra came back again, will they ever quit these guys? NO !!

After 7 straight penalties to Burra (will this Ref ever give us a break!) they scored and converted to trail Mosman 17 -12.

The boys held on to full time and thoroughly deserved their win. They showed great heart and  team spirit.

Oscar put in a great man of the Match performance closely followed by Captain Campbell, Tom the” Horton Express” and every other player deserved a wrap.

So the walking wounded made the grand final on Team Spirit,,Courage,,Neurofen,Voltaren,and lots of bandages.

To say that Jane and I are proud of this team is an understatement, all the injured boys are there every week to cheer their mates on, they play sick and injured for each other.

Remember also, many, I mean many players go their whole Rugby life and never play in a Grand Final or have a chance of winning a medal, so lets enjoy the experience and give it our best shot,win, lose or draw from here all these boys are already winners.

NOW BRING ON COLLAROY…..

Cheers

Coach

ABC Online’s chief political writer Annabel Crabb described it as the greatest oral challenge of our generation given The Emperor’s “greatest moral challenge” no longer exists, or does it? On the menu we were forced to consume Gillard’s pork pies hard to resist then we had the hidden truth behind the PM’s ‘impromptu’ speech. The 2010 federal election spending spree based on a rigour in funding promises doesn’t count for much given we have all heard the term ‘the cheque’s in the mail’ although this Sunday, the elected party will have to face the morning after … where Treasury will start costing those policies on the run, Sydney’s Parramatta to Epping rail line will come under much greater scrutiny and the inevitable financial quarantine until the next federal election.

The most frightening policy is, without a doubt, the $43 billion (43 thousand million dollars) national broadband network which stands to become the greatest white elephant in Australian political history and the biggest financial commitment for an Australian government. Interest payments for this scheme presently stand at $4.500 million per week which prompted Malcolm Turnbull to write on Business Spectator Why the NBN will fail which prompted one comment on the blog: Thank you Malcolm. I think blind Freddy could see that can you publish it in Braille as well? The leading question: is Stephen Conroy conning us on the NBN?

Classic Tim Mooney this shot was captured last Friday when the big Southerly bringing about the cancellation of the Manly Ferries

BUY PRINT

Someone should tell Julia Gillard that the fastest growing network in Australia is wireless – tailor made for Blackberry, iPhone, iPad and laptops, none of which require cable. Latest data reveals Internet searches are the most popular online activity on mobile phones. Some 73 per cent of users conduct online searches by mobile phone now, compared with 30 per cent a year ago. This explains why we launched our mobile property website last week, a first in Mosman. (This is designed to be viewed through your mobile phone)

Gillard & Co have used the white technical elephant as the NBN ‘sandbags’ for marginal seats – we should all be very concerned about this roll- out, especially as the private sector wanted no financial involvement. In economic jargon, this equates to ‘no return on investment’.

The 2010 federal election has completely ignored housing policy initiatives, because they are too hard to fathom and here is why. Rents leap as race to find home intensifies “Forget population growth, we’re not even seeing the housing needed for existing people. There’s an extremely severe housing shortage unique to Sydney.”

Housing affordability nears record low the HIA – CBA Housing Affordability Index fell 9.1 per cent in the June quarter to be 32 per cent compared to the same period last year. HIA chief economist, Harley Dale, said ‘there has been a lack of commitment during the recent federal election campaign to address the substantial hurdles aspiring home owners face.” Then “key federal policy priorities need to include a program to reduce new housing costs such as inequitable taxes and charges, better planning approvals systems, and a dedicated federal housing and development ministry to coordinate policy across all sectors and levels of government,” Mr Dale said.

I don’t share the belief by some that housing bear warns again of bubble waiting to burst as investors who are claiming losses may leave the rental markets. According to Tax Office figures, the proportion of taxpayers who own rental property has risen from 6.5 per cent in 1989 to 13.5 per cent in 2009, two thirds of whom claim a loss on investments. The rental markets are problematic, which is why we sold our property management portfolio earlier this year, to focus on our core business which is, of course, selling properties.

Always a brilliant barometer for the Sydney top end property market is the prestige property market report by Dyson Austen Top 10 for the 2010 January – March quarter.  Our very own Steve Patrick posted the fourth biggest sale with 19 Morella Road Clifton Gardens. Seven sales were recorded in the Eastern Suburbs, two to Mosman and one to Manly – overall a positive result for the prestige property markets.

The comparative analysis from 2004 to 2010 is always fascinating where you will see that the top end is holding its own and we predict a conservative improvement in the quarters ahead. One should remember that when this end of the market starts registering anecdotal sales results, the rest of the market follows suit. We don’t foresee a boom market in the immediate future, but we do see renewed market confidence and sentiment.

Next week, we will publish the Dyson Austen Top 10 sales for the 2010 April – June quarter.

So off to the polls we go tomorrow to elect a federal government for the next three years and by all accounts, it will be close. My prediction is a narrow Tony Abbott victory simply because NSW is vehemently opposed to anything Labor – Why Labor is losing the west. NSW will only start to see rapid improvement with infrastructure when they have a Liberal prime minister and a Liberal premier which will happen in March 2011. The day Gillard stopped spinning: NSW indefensible where I’m sure she regrets her policy on the run announcement about the Parramatta to Epping rail spin which will never happen under the current regime.

Who would have thought that not since 1931, we could witness just the second incumbent government removed after just the one elected term?  Who would have thought we may witness history where two prime ministers were removed in the one term?

Maybe Australia is moving forward!  Voters in Queensland and NSW will determine the outcome.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Infrastructure in NSW ‘average to poor’ a scathing new report card from Engineers Australia where more than three quarters of the sectors require major or critical changes. This report highlights the point that industry can identify the problems, yet elected governments are incapable of preparing a work – in – progress strategy for Australia. Fix these problems because today our population is well ahead of infrastructure which was brilliantly explained in gotchanomics doesn’t bring home the real bacon.

Labor struggling in key states which led to rolling out the barrel – Labor denies pork – barrel suggestion. Andrew West from the Sydney Morning Herald wrote Back on track – and just the ticket for commuters “It is politically brave for a prime minister to appear publicly with a NSW premier these days. It is crazy brave to make a joint announcement about public transport. The NSW public is so cynical about public transport promises – after 15 years of projects being announced, postponed, shelved and re – announced – that voters no longer believe state Labor can deliver a crucial service.” The $2.100 billion rail link announcement for Parramatta and Epping will no doubt be shelved once Fort Crumble is removed permanently at the next state election – all aboard the PM’s Parramatta express. Who could forget reading How lazy Nathan Rees sold NSW short which explains why Gillard and Keneally fail on Sydney’s transport infrastructure funding. More than half the pledged monies promised in the current election will not be spent until after the next election in 2013 – pork rolled out on the never-never.

BUY PRINT

Surveys reveal that Australia is home to the world’s least – affordable property. Pundits are at odds over whether it might end in a bang or a whimper – a great read Forever blowing bubbles. The Real Estate Institute of Australia recently announced that a contributing factor to the increase in house prices and the decline in housing affordability, is the under-supply of housing. According to the National Housing Supply Council, the gap between the supply and demand for housing will increase in the next eight years and this will put further pressure on house prices.

Nothing new on offer since the houses that Kevin built – “It might be important to voters – but not the parties”, wrote Kevin Saulwick. “There may have been more pressing issues than housing affordability at the 2007 election, but not many. Which makes it all the more remarkable that three years later – and with the same level of community concern about the cost of living – there has been little focus on housing by Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott. When Kevin Rudd sailed into office, it was due to Labor’s success in putting itself on the side of the angels when it came to housing costs. Rudd’s message was simple: he sympathised with families bleeding ever – larger payments on mortgages and rent. And he came to office offering policies aimed at increasing the supply of affordable properties to help reduce the pressures.” The Emperor was de-throned by the Orange Roughie because he had lost his way, then poor polling saw a phoenix – like resurrection to lead Labor to better polling – hence the soap opera.

Housing affordability can come down only with much improved infrastructure policies – Capital city house prices up 18 per cent from last year – ABS even though home loans sink to nine – year low. When infrastructure is non–existent, this leads to construction slumps in July because there is no point building, where there is no demand (especially when NSW has no South West rail link, North West rail link, Parramatta to Epping rail, M4 East and M5 East duplication). If these facilities were in place as promised, NSW construction would be booming and housing affordability and rentals much more affordable. How can Australia “move forward” when infrastructure is moving backwards, compared to our population growth? Policy on the run again as NSW Labor in the dark over Gillard’s Parramatta – Epping rail link promise which has been revealed as the rail pledge a carrot in push for McKew win for the seat of Bennelong – Maxine who?

The last remaining economic data statistic before next Saturday’s election was released this week – shock jobless rise where the three states of major concern for federal Labor – NSW, Queensland and Western Australia all experienced unemployment increases.

Whilst home loans fall as interest rates bite the good news is that the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA statement suggests longer pause given RBA forecasts plenty of blue sky ahead. With the election ‘soap opera’ out of the way next Saturday, we can expect some normality back in our property markets. Electoral promises rarely come to fruition as The Emperor “Kevin 07” found, even though he has been brought back to life – with a faint pulse.

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) has been busy working on our infrastructure and this week, we released our RWM mobile website. Previously with your mobile phone you could view our website with your phone which was a navigation nightmare because it is impossible to view a macro site on a micro application and do justice to our properties. Agentpoint our developers this week launched our mobile micro site for mobile phones users.

Open a browser on your mobile phone and type in www.m.rwm.com.au. Our research and development team are currently testing new technologies, all to improve your RWM real estate experience..
.

Online is our real estate industry point of difference, because we are the only agency that gets it – so now you get it. Our clients can now sit outside one of our properties and view it on their mobile phone (outside set inspection times) from our mobile RWM website.

Thanks to Steve and Richard for filling in whilst I was relaxing in our Thailand branch office which is better known (by me) as the Tipsy Prawn.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

The last few weeks (months actually) have been lacklustre to say the least. While sales in the unit market have been strong, with most units between $500k and $800k selling in a week if sensibly priced, the top end of town has struggled, as you all know.

But wait … a bleep on the screen, then another and another … all in a week. Yes, we are starting to see some aggressive buyers getting back into the market.

With a good sale in Burrawong Avenue last week, coupled with one in Burran Ave and another in the middle of Balmoral underway  (the 3 sales ranging between $4m and $8m ), it seems the local Mosman agents have some traction, with the smart money moving in when all seemed quiet on the Western Front.

BUY PRINT

As my first boss in real estate 30 years ago told me, the smart money buys in gloom and sells in bloom.  One just has to have the nerve to be the first amongst one’s peers … who all seem to be experts in property.

Robert managed to sell 2 properties between $2m and $3m from his deck chair in Thailand (we might pay him to stay there and work), so it could be game on after the election.

This week we launched a fabulous home at 22 Richmond Avenue, Cremorne and the response to the ads has been fantastic. We might be in for a busy weekend!

The Australian quoted economist, Craig James, this week saying, “It is a case of mission accomplished for now for the RBA”, who said the economy was growing strongly.

We are not going to get carried away with all the ‘talk’.  We know a lot of people are doing it tough in their businesses and caution will remain a common theme.  However, like all business people, we like to see light at the end of the tunnel. Now Robert would jump in here and say the NSW Government is inept and doesn’t know how to build tunnels, but luckily this tunnel is built on statistics and confidence, not steel and concrete.

Stay tuned as the election looms. We hope to see you out and about.  Robert will return next week to liven things up. He loves election time!

Cheers

Stephen

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

The world changed post March 2008, and so has the local real estate market. Today’s vendors and buyers remain totally confused and understandably so. As two years on, sales trends are still so erratic, if you look for security in each short spike continuing as a trend, most will get it wrong.  The last two plus years have seen the most dramatic swings of opinions and sales volumes since the early 1990’s. Long periods of minimal sales have been followed by bursts of sales, reminiscent of the golden years. At least back then vendors and purchasers  alike, could make a calculated decision based on predictable trends and sales evidence, as to the most likely sale price and plan their lives ahead accordingly. Back then, many properties sold at the top of the price range, buyers had more income security and were more inclined to compromise on the perfect property (there is no such thing) and were more inclined to put the family’s happiness first, rather than to negotiate to the final dollar.

For two years the only consistent property trend is inconsistency, so stop trying to pick the market and focus on how the quality and genuine appeal of each property meets the criteria and desires of your family or yourself. Yes, price is always important and the evidence is that property prices have lowered and represent great buying for genuine buyers. However, many buyers are living in a false world and dreaming of a ‘property collapse’ and consistently missing out on well priced properties, which would have been ideal for their own needs.

The reality is that stock levels are down, around 30% to approx 330 house sales in Mosman for the last two years and buyers are fewer too. Prices are down and many buyers have less money. Sellers will understandably take less as most will re-buy for less. Buyers are patient as they are more inclined to wait for “A” grade stock, of which nearly all is selling.  However the biggest fact is more buyers than ever are regretting missed opportunities.  Personally, I’ve been fortunate to have sold a house every 10 days on average for 18 months, representing around $180,000,000 worth of property over every price range.  I feel like a walking research library of consumer sentiment, both buyers and sellers alike, positive and negative. I’m spending on average one day per week with potential vendors and buyers discussing when and how they should move in the property market.  The truth? There are many buyers and sellers who have made the best property transaction of their lives over the past two years.

BUY PRINT

Here are a few of my tips for buying and selling in this post GFC market:

Generally speaking, your preferred and most trusted agent and agency, should almost act as your informal property advisor and not just jump in for the listing or quick sales commission. Use them to analyse your property needs. They should be capable of mapping a purchase or creating the best selling strategies, which maximise your position within the current market.  In any property market there are winners and losers, so make sure your advice is well supported by third party data and evidence and not baseless opinions.

Buying – generally speaking this is the best market to purchase in if you are looking longer term. We have buyers that have been looking for the ‘impossible deal’ for years. Their families could have been settled in their dream house and financially better off years ago.

• Purchase “A” grade properties and not those compromised, as when the market strengthens the better properties will appreciate ahead of market. So, take a longer term perspective and don’t be swayed just by cosmetic beauty, as this is the easiest and the least costly attribute to rectify.
• Most fully-renovated properties represent better buying in this market than land value sales, as you cannot buy the land and rebuild for the same cost of a completed house
• Longer term settlements and special conditions such as ‘put and call’ purchase agreements  are becoming more typical , so don’t hesitate to present your terms and not simply disregard a property if the standard contract terms are not attractive to you.
• The selling agents must be capable to assist you to the most intimate level. If a property is not right then he/she should be able to source your preferred property. For example, our subscribers represent over 5,000 buyers in 53 countries worldwide and our subscriber sales drive our business. As at today we have sold $956,000,000 worth of property to our private clients.
• Don’t outsmart yourself and immediately discount a property falsely assuming that the price will drop. Recognise and accept that there is always sufficient demand for good properties and a fair price is reflective of a good property
• Be a smart and educated buyer so you can move quickly, which most often means using the agent to do your research and rationale for you. Understand what property credentials justify value and don’t simply group all properties as being much alike.

Selling – “Trust me, we’ll sell your home no worries”, doesn’t work these days. Reputations are being made and lost, with buyers finding many agents short on ‘detail’, as the verbal bluff is falling on deaf ears.  Does this mean that you shouldn’t sell? Well hell no! – you just need to ensure that you are driving the sales process and not taking any short cuts.

• The best agents act more as “property advisors” than hard selling agents, they work to appreciate your specific needs, and then deliver. 50% of my sales are to buyers who initially say no.  Once we analyse all the facts together via meetings and written documents, we realise that a particular property is more appealing than first thought, so keep an open mind.
• Some properties are perfect for auction, most are not. Prior to the GFC every buyer hated to compete at an auction, today most buyers relish the thought of going to an auction, so they can low bid it. Strategies that counter handing too much power to the buyers are the key.
• Purchasers will remember 80% of what they read and 20% of what they hear. The verbal pitch is critical but the best agents reinforce their sales pitches to good prequalified buyers as strategic emails.
• A post GFC successful track record is critical, as you know they are succeeding with sales in this market.  Some agents went on holidays last year for six months as they couldn’t sell, some spend all their time trying to co-list other agent’s properties. Most are complaining. This is a real market and the sales are being made, so look for the ‘real’ performers.
• Don’t co-list a property, as only one agent and agency can affectively represent your best interests. With a joint listing, buyers will contact both agents looking for the cheapest deal, so recognise that no agent owns a buyer and that buyers are not even loyal to an agent when buying. If they want a property they will deal with the selling agent.

I hope some or at least one of these points will assist you in this post GFC property market.  Stay tuned for an early Spring market with most properties launching mid-August. Stock levels won’t be huge, a fact that has been so for two years, but we expect many buyers will be looking to buy and secure their new homes and settle in for Christmas this year.

Richard.

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Robert is on holidays and I will not even try to match his massive output.  I realised just how much preparation and research goes into his weekly column when I sat down and wondered where to start!

Robert will be doing his best work this week in Thailand (similar to Sir Les Patterson as the Australian Cultural Attache).   With the election looming, he will no doubt be explaining to the Thais what “budgie smugglers” are and what “ranga” means in the Australian vernacular.

Election … how will it affect our real estate market, you ask?  Well 10 years ago and beyond, people always sat on the fence until they saw which party was elected and how the result could possibly change their lives.  Three  months later (usually) things were back to normal!   However, today, many voters are not too concerned as they think both parties are closely aligned  in their business outlooks.

As one of our clients said the other day, “we have recently had 12 years of a Liberal Government so if they get back in we know how they operate”.  Too true!

We believe the election will come and go with lots of the usual stuff from both parties and then we will sit back and worry (as we do now) about the world economy and where it is going.

.

BUY PRINT

This year’s real estate market has been interesting to say the least. It started very cautiously in Jan/Feb with positive news coming out of the USA.   This was reflected in March and up to Easter when quite a lot of property was sold as buyers moved in confidently to secure their family homes.

At the same time, while  people were away enjoying their Easter and School Holidays, Greece was in financial crisis and the Aussie Govt declared a new Mining Super Tax.

The Results were devastating!  The ASX fell through the floor (12-15%) in a week and the shutters were pulled down on the property market as everyone jumped back on the fence, to sit and watch.

My experience  selling real estate over the past 30 years has been that when there is a major setback in the market there is a three  month period of “wait and see”  before people jump back into the playing arena.  That three  month period is about up, as we have just had our July holidays, which, in our business, normally coincide with the quietest month of the year.

We have seen more buyers at our “opens” this week as some see this as a good time to buy when there is not too much competition around. The market presently represents good value and the bold buyers will probably be the big winners in the long term.

We anticipate that August /September will see more turnover of stock at the current levels and then a steady run into Christmas. Interest rates rises, which are still a topic of conversation, will have a bearing  in Western Sydney, rather than on the Eastern Seaboard but will keep prices in check across the board.

Look forward to seeing you at the opens, in the Village or on the sidelines somewhere soon.  Now I am off to find an orangutan wearing speedos, so i can send a photo to Rob in Thailand.

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

Steve.

Last week, I wrote that July can be a lost property month as so many are away on holidays. This is echoed with website traffic where Unique Visitors are busily visiting other sites such as beach resorts and or snowfields. Sour outlook for house prices as investors are the only source of growth in market which is interesting given investors tend to only play when they identify a buyer’s market. Clearance rate slumps as supply surges where it was reported “Sydney’s auction clearance rate plummeted at the weekend with just 49 per cent of properties selling – the poorest result for 18 months.”

To confuse the issue further home loans up for first time in eight months which is a clear sign of market recovery. “The number of new owner – occupied home loans rose 1.9 per cent in May, the first increase in eight months. Lending to housing investors continued its recent surge, rising 2.6 per cent in value, and has now swelled by 35 per cent since early last year. No doubt investors are circling First Home Buyers who are feeling the strain of increased funding costs.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its lending finance approval data this week – lending remains subdued, easing bubble fears. The average in 2009 was $53.14 billion per month, compared to $65.67 billion per month in the pre – crisis year of 2007, meaning $12.53 billion less coming into the economy per month via lending institutions. At the current growth rate, total lending, at $51.58 billion in May, would take another six years to regain the high point of $70.63 billion reached at the end of 2007. I am not sure that we need to reach the high point anytime soon as borrowers told to pay down debt given the cash rate overtime will go up not down. In 2007 we saw borrowers lock and load debt where today, it is the complete opposite of lock and unload debt.

BUY PRINT

Business conditions hold steady given interest rates remain attractive as well as strong job growth, this identifies that Australia has solid business fundamentals. It should be noted that I am referring to businesses not governments. One of the biggest global bond managers Pimco rated Australia as a top investment destination so the outlook from a business perspective looks sound. Although that scenario could quickly change as banks face pressure over cost of lending and look likely to raise rates. Contrary to what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) suggests, the banks are becoming increasingly triggered happy to reprice their mortgages – banks to cool on rate rises until after poll.

As a business we rely strongly on the Macquarie Economics Research data as an economic compass for our advice to purchasers, vendors and subscribers to Virtual Realty News. So let’s look at its economic forecasts, where the key issue is how long will rates remain on hold? Throw in a likelihood that banks could increase rates independently and the heat comes back into the market again.

The Macquarie Economics Research – Outlook for the September quarter 2010 identifies both calm and choppy waters ahead. The common denominator is quite simple (for me anyway) based on the above forecast, simply put: excessive debt is dangerous. This would explain why in our real estate market demographic we see bonuses being paid directly back into reducing debt levels. Leveraged lending on speculative investments is today a thing of the past, as households have all but ruled out those global financial crises – margin calls. A clear message: to borrow within not without.

Sydneysiders have always been proud that collectively our property markets are the benchmark for the Australian property industry, however for the very first time this is about to change. Our state Government – Fort Crumble (the most incompetent in Australia’s history) will show you why with the following graph.

Source: Australian Property Monitors

Senior Labor figures face annihilation – “Secret polling shows state Labor is facing a near wipe – out at the next election, with seven ministers and former Premier Nathan Rees among 28 MPs likely to lose seats. Polls by Labor and unions showed a 15 per cent swing against the Keneally Government statewide.” Fort Fumble due to their inability to provide infrastructure have driven residents to other States and Territories – Melbourne close to overtaking Sydney in price stakes. With annual population growth in Victoria running at 2.2 per cent, compared to NSW at 1.7 per cent, driving demand, it’s not hard to imagine Melbourne seriously challenging for the crown of Australia’s most expensive median priced city in the near future.

It will be a fascinating run into Christmas for both political and property voyeurs. The Colmar Brunton survey is always an interesting read Bubble – burst fears rise where investors are expecting house prices to remain flat or possibly fall. A very interesting read as well is show us your ticker, Gillard, before you force us to vote. Then our non – elect Prime Minister has to hose down the stoush where Paul Keating unleashes on Bob Hawke: I carried you through years of ‘Malaise’.

Julia Gillard announced that if elected the failed Emperor Kevin Rudd will sit on the front bench – I doubt she will hand him the Insulation Portfolio.

Steve and Richard have returned back from holidays so over to them.

I’m looking forward to road testing my iPad under my umbrella on the beach in Thailand as well as reading RISE OF THE RUDDBOT. Given what transpired at the Press Club yesterday PM Julia Gillard accused of double deal where it very much looks like the Labor Party is witnessing the Revenge of The Emperor – and it’s looking ugly.

Back in three weeks to cover the federal election which is taking more turns than a Winter Olympics.

Why is Mosman the strongest real estate market in Australia? Mosman is way out in front which, explains ladies and gentlemen, why, Mosman is Australia’s ‘numero uno’ municipality.

Just announced Federal Election – August 21.

Got a plane to catch,

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

The major problems attributed to Forts Fumble and Crumble is that economically, they confuse usage with wastage (otherwise known as “reckless and wasteful spending”). After all, Fort Fumble is still borrowing almost $100 million a day which is in direct competition with home borrowers and small business as Joe Hockey tells govt to cool spending.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met this week and decided to keep rates on hold despite solid numbers. Of course the announcement was met with the usual rhetoric Wayne Swan welcomes interest rate decision citing “while we’ve fought off the recession and kept unemployment low, we know that a lot of people are still doing it tough and recent rate rises have stretched family budgets.” More Treasurer speak “we’re focussed on reforming and strengthening our economy with investments to harness mining boom mark 11 where the Liberals failed in mining boom mark 1.” Wayne is almost Shakespearean with his economic recitals and enactments although the RBA keeps saying Government must rein in demand growth: McKibbin.

Thought we would head south this week for a change of Sydney scenery

BUY PRINT

Let’s take a closer look at Fort Fumble’s mark 11 harnessing – mining tax changes had one purpose which was taking pressure off key marginal seats. Since the new deal was announced last Friday, it has been described as a compromise, a back flip and a monumental cave–in MRRT revenue loss to be double government estimate: Goldman.

The tax was reduced from 40 to 22.5 per cent a hard tax to swallow as Alan Kohler wrote on Business Spectator.”More than double the profit threshold above which it cuts in and reduce the number of companies being taxed from 2,500 to 320, and lose only one – eighth of the money. Julia Gillard is a prime minister who Gets Things Done – the Mary Poppins of tax policy.”

No regrets over mining tax – Treasury Secretary Ken Henry whilst Martin Ferguson concedes: ‘We got super – profits tax wrong’ I can’t wait to see what happens with mark 111 as government ‘dishonest’ on revised super profits tax revenue as government sacrificed $35 bn in tax deal with big miners.

Time to move above ground where caution is being thrown to the wind (again) – which I might add is not a bad thing. Of course it would have been much better had Fort Fumble got their stimulus issues right which unfortunately was not the case as I have long argued – roads, infrastructure, housing subdivisions, hospitals – a long term future model. Fort Crumble was at it again also with another painful snub of Sydney transport, M5 set to be delayed and doodling as Metro plan burns $500m. Then on Thursday we had 50,000 Sydney homes without power again broken infrastructure in NSW.

Not one Sydney transport project has been listed as a priority for the federal Government’s (Fort Fumble) latest infrastructure funding targets. “Blasting the NSW Government’s failure to properly plan billion – dollar road and transport projects, Infrastructure Australia has instead selected a $4.9 billion Melbourne metro train project, an Adelaide freight rail line and a Federal Highway road upgrade in the ACT as priorities.” Work this out – the Pacific Highway gets an upgrade and Sydney gets absolutely nothing – Sydney has been placed in the too hard basket along with our politicians. No strings attached with Sydney anymore.

Great news for property owners who sit within a 5 – 10 – 15 kilometre radius of our CBD as evidenced when Jonathan Chancellor published this week in the Sydney Morning Herald – Top 20 Sydney house sales just the one recorded sale outside the radius – clue!

Mosman posted five of the top 20 sales.  Our very own Stephen Patrick had the highest sale and Richard Simeon had another in Warringah Road. This saw  Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) record two of the five, which this week, took our Internet subscriber sales to $956,784,220.

So how is our Spring/Summer property market looking? Year ahead good, not great where Australia’s market economists declare there will be no double– dip recession here. Buyers expected to favour private sales over auctions as growth slows. We predict the Mosman market to shift (initially) in the upcoming market to online advertising – stage one as property markets stabilise. Why? It’s all about our real estate ring of confidence.

As Macquarie Economics Research explained:

• With more volatility in global financial markets, an increasing number of analysts are betting that this will force the RBA to leave rates unchanged over the next year. Certainly, if the credit markets dry up the RBA will not hesitate to cut interest rates. But with the Government’s deal with major mining companies over taxation, removing one of the clouds over investment, the RBA might actually have become more confident in the growth outlook.

Don’t forget rise in inflation to irk RBA where the annual reading of 3.6 per cent rate of inflation rose for the eighth straight month. This is well outside the RBA’s target of between 2 and 3 per cent. Rents will continue to drive inflation up given a six year wait to save deposit for first home in Sydney which is quite ironic given Infrastructure Australia is not investing in Sydney. IMF sees strong growth in Australia, but risks grow although I would add that government economic policy is an even greater risk on our shores.

Sydney needs a plan and it is obvious that  Forts Fumble and Crumble have absolutely no idea on how to address such complex issues. Sydney commuters can expect to see new signs on all transport systems – Turn around You Are Going the Wrong Way – no infrastructure ahead. When Fort Crumble has difficulty filling out Infrastructure Australia forms it’s no wonder NSW is a basket case. More back flips from Fort Fumble where Gillard eats her words over refugees as her options dwindle to six countries for east Timor alternative.

The Emperor may have gone however the art of the back flip remains the preferred exercise for a government that just two weeks ago, had lost its way. So what would one call the MRRT and East Timor? Must be a phase they are going through although we need more than promises to judge Julia. Maybe she has short term memory loss?

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

We are at the start of a new financial year and by all accounts it will be another interesting one the fizz has gone, but it will be a wild year. ‘The past financial year has been one of contrasts. It began with such vigour and such optimism. By Christmas almost every major commentator was predicting that not only were we out of the mire, but that we were witnessing the dawn of the greatest bull run of all time. That rocky period between late 2007 and early 2009.Hah! That was merely a hiccup.”

BUY PRINT

Clear waters ahead; keep swimming between the flags or stay in the pool?

Greece and Europe face another 48 hours while the world worries about recovery as fears grow over health of the global economy. Quite fascinating given that house prices up but buyers wary of interest rates going the same way although many believe that the economy faces long grind out of crisis.

At this juncture, property markets can easily be confused with what is occurring in the share market, as was the case with red lights are flashing in fragile economy where “the end – of – quarter window dressing held the Australian stock market together yesterday but there are red lights all over the place. The market recorded its worst result for the financial year, an 11.8 per cent fall for the three months. The problems in short, are no signs of a domestic– led bounce with an election due to be called any day, weak US economic numbers, European sovereign debt and a slowing China.” So why then do property buyers wait for a booming market to pay over and above in what is otherwise known as a vendors’ market? When they find themselves in what is considered a buyers’ market, they freeze, which is probably more a casualty of economic data overload. Unless you are a property developer, the purchase of a home is considered an emotional acquisition and we all know that sometimes, our emotions can get in the way with our feelings.

Given IMF chief rules out double – dip recession one of the greatest concerns facing the Australian economy is that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is at odds with Treasury and Fort Fumble which keeps spending. Some believe that the RBA raised rates too far while others believe (with a federal election pending) the Gillard Gauntlet is borrowing and spending too much in an attempt to buy the upcoming election. Retail sales rose by a modest 0.2 per cent in May while residential building approvals fell 6.6 per cent.

Housing starts set to stall: HIA which is a leading indicator that construction is expected to jump in 2010 but drop to just 3 per cent growth in 2011. Currently Australia has a 200,000 house shortage despite an underlying growth in our population. This, of course, places enormous pressure on rental markets and yet the federal government has no strategy in place to address these concerns. Makes one question just what exactly the Housing Minister does, aside from a failing to understand basic construction economics. The combined real estate industry is the largest employer in Australia and yet, we are being told that Australia is adopting a ‘tool down’ policy. So what we are witnessing is a government attempting to stimulate votes and ignoring basic economics.

Julia Gillard insists on building classrooms (with plaques) and nobody is building Australia. The BER (Building Education Revolution) with the benefit of hindsight, should have been BAR – Building Australia Revolution. After all, who lives in a classroom?

Someone should have told them you can’t sell a classroom but you can sell a house – even in July!

Her first back-flip with the RSPT announcement today, is somewhat confusing given the tax rate dropped from forty to thirty per cent. A lot of argy bargy for just a ten per cent compromise. Either the miners are poor negotiators or Fort Fumble’s revenue estimates are incorrect – no surprise for guessing the answer.

Miners: 1 Fort Fumble: 0

Fort Fumble will call it an own goal thinking they scored too!

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here