Election 2010 delivered more questions than answers!

Election 2010 delivered more questions than answers!

It has now been revealed that the weakest link found by the key players two independents who delivered the government to Julia Gillard, preferred a leader who was more likely to run Parliament to its full three–year term. Tony Windsor believed that Tony Abbott was more likely to run a new election as soon as possible.  Asked why he thought so, Windsor replied: “Because I think they would be more likely to win.” So the Independents tear us to a new Paradigm as $10bn regional package seals Labor win. Who will forget that speech Oakeshott holds Australia hostage with self – indulgent theatrics better known as his 15 minutes of fame and his later admission he weighed up offers from Tony Abbott that got ‘bigger and bigger’.

Australia has a population of 22,454,686 and 14,030,528 voted according to the Electoral Commissioner where the breakdown is interesting. NSW – 4,591,748, Victoria – 3,547,403, QLD – 2,707,464, WA – 1,356,228, SA – 1,102,827, TAS – 357,873, ACT – 246,436 and NT – 120,489 which was a 385,455 increase from the 2007 election, when 13,645,073 were enrolled to vote.



No time for woulda coulda shoulda from Gillard as less than 24 hours following the announcement the insults start to fly from furious Coalition as Liberal Senator George Brandis told ABC Radio, the Labor government had “as much legitimacy as the Pakistani cricket team”. Then Fort Fumble (or should that now be Fort Eggshell) faced a landslide when Wayne Swan appears at odds with independent by excluding mining tax from summit which promptly saw Windsor at odds with Labor over mining tax review as miners take up fight against rent tax again.

Even more revealing, Swan let Rudd down on MRRT: WA premier when it became obvious that many missed reading perhaps now politicians will stop trashing their reputations. One thing we are already assured of will be many more back flips as Hockey warns of government instability where it would be irresponsible to rule out The Revenge of The Emperor – Kevin Rudd back in the spotlight after Julia Gillard wins government.

I can see the headlines now “Gillard fights testosterone”, although I prefer, ‘here-ego’ again, to the polls! You would have noted that the new buzz word from our esteemed leader is “regional” which never saw the light of day in the pre–election hysteria. In whichever direction you look, you will see  too many seasoned bulls in the one paddock with very little room to ‘moo-ve’ in the lush paddocks surrounding Fort Fumble.

3-09-2010 3-00-23 PM

3-09-2010 3-03-16 PM

Economy held up well post – GFC, says RBA “in that market, unlike a number of others, conditions have generally returned to those before 2007.” Interesting to see that the Australian dollar has become the fifth most traded currency, overtaking the Swiss franc, with the AUD/USD remaining the fourth most traded currency pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold when directors met this week for their monthly cucumber sandwiches – rates unchanged, statement lacks ‘meat’.

8-09-2010 10-49-47 AM

The main triggers that determine home values are recessions, unemployment and interest rates, so this week’s announcement jobs surge increases rates risk delivers a strong possibility that in November we will see interest rates increased. On a positive note, investors are jumping back into term deposits making a comeback which means that the banks don’t have to buy more expensive money on the wholesale market. A great barometer for the property markets is consumer confidence, which is headed to ten–year highs.

8-09-2010 10-51-02 AM

Don’t bet the house on a property price bubble bursting provides an excellent assessment of how our property market is so different to the US housing market – subprime 2.0 is on its way. Yes our construction activity remains weak given poor planning to blame for building slump where again the culprit is Fort Crumble, Australia’s worst performing state government. The number of new dwellings completed in 1999 – 2000 was 32,358 and in 2007 – 2008 it was 14,795. The value of residential homes built in NSW since the late 1990’s has fallen from 36 per cent of Australian output to just over 20 per cent. The report estimates that for Sydney to keep up with demand, we will require 25,000 – 50,000 new homes each year. The present government target is 25,000. Here is an interesting graph showing Lower North Shore house and apartment sales from April 2008 to August 2010.

7-09-2010 11-25-39 AM

Here are the Mosman sales which remain consistent and strong for both demographics.

7-09-2010 11-18-36 AM

Mosman home values are still a very strong currency as the graphs indicate although when one looks at last week’s sales it is most obvious that the 2010 Federal election has confused consumer confidence. Based on our analysis of all data available, we can advise that we won’t see a property boom for at least a few years and prices will gradually increase. This leads me to suggest that we may now find ourselves in an entirely new space, where our households have transgressed from previous debt collection, to fast track debt reduction.

We don’t expect to see a sudden influx of properties on the market anytime soon, so get used to a property market that remains in a holding pattern (much better than a market in a folding pattern). The Mosman graph above, clearly indicates this and is anecdotal market evidence.

Cheers ^__^

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7 Responses to “Election 2010 delivered more questions than answers!”

  • Mae says:

    Great commentary……. it will be an interesting next year

  • Ryan O'Grady says:

    It will be a wasted term of office and the electorate will be unforgiving. I see a landslide victory to Libs at the next election!

  • Ann says:

    Can’t believe Oakeshott was even considering a Ministry, how could he call himself and independant?

    Can’t wait for Parliament ti restart in a few weeks time

  • Wayne says:

    Not only a landslide Ryan but the Independents & the greens have now sealed their own fate, they and I think now to a degeree the geens are both gone. You can bet that the electorates of the Independents can’t wait to get back to the polls to vent their anger.

  • Chris says:

    Makes sense to me mate. Fortunately our property market hasnt charged off into a climate of record prices. Perhaps some old heads in the finance industry have exercised restraint within what is very much a quality as opposed to sales lending market plus a little arrears management. A flat property market for a few years is a small price to pay when keeping a roof over the head of your family. Money aint everything.

  • Keith says:

    As noted, a flat market is better than a falling market, and i think you will find that since the number of new houses is significantly less than the demand for them, that prices will remain stable and may slowly increase until developers start building again.

  • What the vast majority of property voyeurs have miss read is how bankers bonuses have driven the Mosman property currency to record highs – our very own annual suburban annual stimulus package. Unfortunately, that stimulus package is being withdrawn so prices will remain constant for the next few years.

    I agree with Keith and Chris that Mosman property is in a holding pattern at a comfortable elevation with minimal turbulence.

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