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The same can be said for many commentators who continue to argue that our macro property markets are, by world standards, massively overpriced. In Australia, overpriced does not equate to  over-populated, with Australia’s population very shortly to reach 22,500,000 population clock ABS with approximately 6,000,000 homes being the macro picture. Tick – tock goes the housing time bomb – “a confluence of building approvals, housing price and population figures are likely to all point in one direction: the failure of housing policy in key markets to keep pace with the nations needs.” So what happened a few days later?

• New home sales fall 4 months in a row where the number of new homes fell by 2.6 per cent to 6,887 in August, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) said in a statement on Wednesday. The fall followed a 7.1 per cent drop in July and brought about the decline since April to 19.7 per cent. Sales in August were 20.5 per cent below the level recorded a year earlier in August 2009 and at their lowest point since 2008. This data reveals that new home commencements would have risen in only two years out of ten – those being 2002 and 2010. Politicians in Canberra offered no comment – no idea.
• Immigration plunges – without politics which signals that Australia’s net migration rate has started to nosedive where births comfortably outnumbered net migration over the year – 303,500 babies versus 241,400 migrants. Migration levels in sharp drop as Australia’s population growth has fallen to its slowest rate since 2007. Politicians in Canberra again offered no comment – no idea.

BUY PRINT

Only when commentators start looking closely at the machinations that drive property markets, will they even begin to understand what drives property prices. Only when one starts to piece the puzzle, does the picture become clearer. In the Sun Herald last Sunday, Louis Christopher from SQM Research wrote “SQM’s vacancy rate series also reveals a tight rental market with only some slack at the very affluent end of the market place. Vacancy rates are at 1.3 per cent and even tighter in Sydney’s west at a dire 0.7 per cent. And from what I can see there are no significant increases in new housing developments in the next two years for the local market.” Christopher went on to say “this is scary stuff and means only one thing for rents. Our forecast is for a Sydney – wide average rise of 5 – 7 per cent a year for at least the next two years. The west could record an even higher growth rate of 8 per cent – plus.” When rents climb, the rental community buy and this coincides with government policy on house construction which, as we all know is dead policy!

House prices do not inexorably rise another great article by Christopher Joye on Business Spectator “If the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ‘central case’ comes to pass, which would involve a surge in resources investment on the back of China and India’s industrialisation, notwithstanding weak US and European growth, we can expect to see it raise the target cash rate at least four times to 5.5 per cent with an upper bound of 6 per cent. Note that this is an exclusive of any ‘top – ups’ delivered via the banks. When the RBA speaks, listen up as bad news looms for debt – laden households. The share of debt–free households in Australia has plunged to a nine year low, amid signs that people are borrowing heavily to keep pace with rapid growth in house prices forcing more people closer to the edge.

Barring catastrophe, interest rates likely to be high for many years to come where it will be a safe bet that the official interest rate will rise in 2010 and even more to be expected in 2011. It’s in your own best interest to save before the Reserve forces you because the cost of owning a home (with a mortgage) will go up, given the inflationary impact of the mining boom as RBA’s stride quickens. The mining boom is reflected with labour supply – Western Australia recorded the nation’s highest growth of 2.3 per cent, Queensland 2.2 per cent, Victoria 2 per cent, Northern Territory 1.9 per cent, ACT 1.6 per cent, NSW 1.6 per cent, South Australia 1.3 per cent and Tasmania 0.9 per cent.

Economy on solid foundations, Wayne Swan despite Labor’s growing labour crisis Fort Fumble keeps addressing international politics whilst ignoring local concerns as ALP urged to embrace growth. Budget deficit of $54.8 billion for 2009/10 is smaller than expected then Access Economics declared Swan’s budget an ‘accident waiting to happen’ given budget surplus in 2012 ‘may be short – lived’. Naturally, Wayne Swan responded Access Economics Budget forecast is pessimistic although he failed to respond to Chris Richardson’s concerns that “Treasury may be right that there is a permanent boom in mining but it would be the first ever recorded in any market.”Australia still the great performer, buoyed by the resources boom although Fort Fumble must cut spending to boost competitiveness given Labor facing storm clouds: International Monetary Fund.

Next entry on the whiteboard will no doubt be the “Great White Elephant” – Gillard’s NBN. Mexican telco billionaire’s claim that NBN is too expensive backs our case: Tony Abbott then Conroy hits back at Slim: you don’t know what you’re on about. My prediction: Conroy will be smashed over the untried and costed Gillard NBN roll-out – Advantage Turnbull given, Telstra nonchalant on NBN.

Cable equates to “why more” and wireless equates to “why not less”?

Someone should ask Wayne Swan why we are doing plenty of digging, yet no building? The sooner someone explains to him that Australia is not about digging a nation, but rather building a nation,  will we see greater housing affordability – and  that won’t be happening anytime soon.

We need direction to build on – not tax on!

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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1.10.10Robert Simeon1 Comment »

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The global financial crisis (GFC) has been a fascinating turn of events where businesses and households tweaked, sleeked and critiqued their respective currency flows in a battle for survival. So now we hear that as the good times roll, expect the cost of living to rise exponentially. With interest, I was reading another blog on Business2 which intrigued me.

“While you are talking to Glenn Stevens ask him how come the inflation rate is around 3% when everything we use or consume is rising at a much faster rate than that, and also – how come home mortgage rates in the rest of the world are SO much lower than here. And how come the banks are crying about the cost of funds – and making multi BILLION profits. And why won’t we let some other banks into this country to compete with the Big 4. Also – how come the homeowners of this country have to carry the burden of government stuff ups via monetary policy every time?”  Poignant questions to those residents living on Recovery Road, Australia!

Sydney real estate markets this year have been in a somewhat chill mode, although recent sales results are sending strong indications that the tide is turning and sentiment is starting to heat up. This week’s Mosman real estate sales are the strongest recorded this year as the results show here. Source: Domain Property Data

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I was consumed by this week’s announcements to the residents on Recovery Road, Australia – starting with The GFC saved Australia. “As an aside, the realities of what really happened at our Big Four banks over the past three years makes CEOs’ extreme pay packets all the more obscene. Remember that the CBA’s $16 million man this year, Ralph Norris, took the top job in 2005 – his latest bonus bonanza supposedly recognises his responsibility for the bank coming out of the GFC in such rude good health. Haven’t seen much impact of his presumed matching responsibility for the bank’s financial and reputational exposure to Storm Financial, ABC Learning, Babcock & Brown et all reaching their crescendo on his watch. Similar remuneration report follies are on the way from ANZ, NAB and Westpac.”

Plain old economic growth is good for society as inflation expectations of 3.1 per cent in September quarter – survey as the RBA beats the inflation war drums. The mining boom will push interest rates up, Reserve Bank’s Glenn Stevens says as the odds shorten for October rate rise. Let the speculation begin when former RBA economist tips 5.75 per cent cash rate which in real terms equates to a 125 basis point increase over the next fifteen months. This would place Australia’s first ever female prime minister at Fort Fumble under increasing pressure, given 2011 could very well be another election year? Which bank? CBA joins calls for an October rate rise despite the release of data this week that household savings fall signals money woes as home loan customers told to brace for $90 – a – month increase in repayments. On top of this the Reserve Bank of Australia revealed this week that the big banks increase penalty charges take 9 per cent to $536 million after more customers fell behind in payments.

Electricity charges have gone through the roof as power bills force big firms to flee from NSW as Fort Crumble continues to mismanage NSW’s power supply where price rises put power to 138,000 people in jeopardy. Opposition energy spokesman Duncan Gay said he would not be surprised if big businesses fled NSW after being forced to bankroll an overdue energy infrastructure upgrade. “NSW Labor has ripped $14 billion out of the state’s energy retailers in dividends and taxes and failed to re-invest in our ageing infrastructure.”

Fort Crumble is encouraging Sydneysiders urged to shift inland as they drown mentally in addressing infrastructure collapses in NSW. The problem with Fort Crumble is that with just six months in power, it doesn’t have a single plan – as public loses all faith with planning process. For example:

Taking the low road to disaster where Fort Crumble has delayed 60 major road projects by at least five years (some longer) because  it can no longer fund urgent road works. No wonder Fort Crumble, hopelessly and embarrassingly broke, is trying to push residents into the bush. There is no greater example of how the present state governments mismanage debt than as state’s debt binge to top $240 billion as private sector faces squeeze. Analysis by The Australian of state (fake) budget round has found that borrowing is forecast to soar 52 per cent from $159.6 billion this year to $243.2 billion in 2014 to help fund upgrades to rundown transport, electricity and water infrastructure. The analysis found NSW and Queensland had the highest level of borrowings and both face re-election within the next six months. Constituents are wondering whether we have state governments or fake governments?

Yes, the road to recovery is long, winding and bloody confusing where even the strings on our elected puppets have worn thin and in NSW, the show can no longer go on. No wonder there is increasing demand for property within five kilometres of the Sydney CBD.

Alas, Fort Fumble embarks on a $45 billion NBN network which will become Australia’s greatest ever white elephant. We need a Very Fast Train to link cities because road works in NSW have virtually ceased.  For the record, wireless (not cable) works very well even on very fast trains.

In answer to the earlier question, “how come homeowners of this country have to carry the burden of government stuff ups via monetary policy every time?”  What Australia needs, is a train of thought – not a broken cable car!

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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24.09.10Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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After all, we are in the greatest performing economy on the planet. Having sailed through and mostly ahead of the global financial crisis (GFC), our property markets once again find themselves positioned at the business–end, following a term of prolonged holding patterns. Ground conditions are perfect for take–off, with clear skies ahead and very little turbulence on the radar. Although what remains unclear, is who will be playing and who will be staying? The buzz word during the GFC was stimulus and it was merchant bankers who stimulated top–end property markets. There was no better example than Mosman, which remains the most expensive municipality (not suburb) in Australia. Bankers’ bonuses have been ‘rivers of gold’ for our bricks and mortar markets (merchant bankers remain our single largest subscribers) although their market engagement appears to have peaked in early 2008.

What is acutely clear, is that households have been actively paying down debt, instead of rolling it over and taking on more. Not that long ago, real estate agents made diary notes as to when the big banks were paying bonuses, which translated into the annual game of house trap!

Property markets move in mysterious ways (remember when the GST was introduced in 2000?). We saw property developers in Mosman gradually withdraw (especially with houses) because the additional ten per cent impacted their returns on investment and this once popular vocation became academic.

BUY PRINT

Pittwater weekenders were also very popular in the real estate indulgence markets where these properties failed the financial reconciliation of the GFC as the owners headed back home.

Another factor that needs to be considered when house values are flat, is that when additional acquisition costs (stamp duty) and selling costs are measured, vendors find themselves at breakeven. This was the norm, when purchasers were playing with additional income streams and stimulating markets with bonuses that can no longer be taken for granted. The following three graphs show the volume of stock on the market for houses and apartments in Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay, with houses showing much more consistent patterns.

MOSMAN

CREMORNE

NEUTRAL BAY

The Punch guide to our rich suburbs and big houses identifies a study conducted 2003–04 and 2007–08 which identified Mosman as having the highest average income in Australia, at $131,606 (the national average is $44,402). Considering that we are now post GFC and these results are more than two years old, it will be interesting to see if there are any significant changes to Sydney’s wealthiest the richest in the land.

Confidence has always provided the much needed oxygen to all financial markets so overseas travellers would be happy this week, to see the dollar bounces as economy worries fade. The question many are asking is ‘will confidence remain sky high’? Consumers turn cautious as outlooks clouds when the Westpac and Melbourne Institute released its index this week which showed that consumer sentiment fell 5 per cent in September to 113.2.

The consumer sentiment must have been taken before Julia Gillard announces cabinet which is just in time as parliament resumes in two weeks. The broadband debate will be riveting given Tony Abbott picks Turnbull to ‘demolish’ Gillard’s broadband plan. I wonder if he read skills shortage threatens Gillard’s NBN pledge when it was revealed the regional rollout could face a skills shortage. “The Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union estimates around 7,000 now have the competency to work on the NBN’s construction, but 25,000 technicians will be needed each year to build and operate the network over the period of its construction.” In the meantime, The Emperor is off to the USA for a sleepover at the White House and here are the other cabinet members.

The big banking announcement of the week was Basel III agreement announced. Global regulators are enforcing rules for banks to hold top–quality capital totalling seven per cent of their risk bearing assets (up from two per cent) to prevent any repeat of the recent international credit crisis. Australian banks are unfazed by tough new rules given they already qualify, with the ANZ sitting on 11.1 per cent, Commonwealth Bank 10.1 per cent, NAB 9.4 per cent and Westpac 8.6 per cent according to Deutsche Bank figures. Our banks are jumping back into the property market as lenders back throwing cash at buyers although our property bubble is too fit to burst. ‘A report last week from Moody’s Investor Service found that delinquency rates are still very low. For example 30+ days – past due delinquencies were 1.34 per cent in June compared to 1.39 per cent in May. That means that less than 2 per cent of loans are falling into arrears of 30 or more days past the due date’.

As stated previously, many Australian households are pre–paying their mortgages. Major banks report that over 55 per cent of mortgagees are ahead on their payment schedule, with 40 per cent, by more than a year. What a pity that U.S.A. banks were not in that position when subprime hit!

Here is a great one on one interview by our very own Steve Patrick with Glen Spratt from Mortgageport.

This video was produced by visualdomain

This week, we celebrated the 10th anniversary of the Sydney Olympic Games. Coincidentally, we celebrated the 10th birthday of Virtual Realty News. Ten years ago, when I sent out our first edition, it went to 38 subscribers (we still have a few of these originals) and look where we are today – $956,784,220 in online subscriber sales and Australia’s longest and most successful online newsletter. I am proud to say that over that time we have never missed a single edition. We have quite a few new initiatives in store and will be working very closely with visualdomain to produce fortnightly/monthly (still working that out) video editions of Virtual Realty News for those who don’t want to read them. Stay tuned for many more real estate industry firsts!

All will be revealed soon.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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17.09.10Robert Simeon4 Comments »

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Excellent one on one interview where Steve Patrick interviews Glen Spratt from Mortgageport about the state of the market regarding the local home loan market. The interview discusses -

• What state is the mortgage market currently?
• What trends are noticeable?
• Tell us briefly about Mortgageport
• What type of customers does Mortgageport focus on helping?

This video was produced by visualdomain

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15.09.10Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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It has now been revealed that the weakest link found by the key players two independents who delivered the government to Julia Gillard, preferred a leader who was more likely to run Parliament to its full three–year term. Tony Windsor believed that Tony Abbott was more likely to run a new election as soon as possible.  Asked why he thought so, Windsor replied: “Because I think they would be more likely to win.” So the Independents tear us to a new Paradigm as $10bn regional package seals Labor win. Who will forget that speech Oakeshott holds Australia hostage with self – indulgent theatrics better known as his 15 minutes of fame and his later admission he weighed up offers from Tony Abbott that got ‘bigger and bigger’.

Australia has a population of 22,454,686 and 14,030,528 voted according to the Electoral Commissioner where the breakdown is interesting. NSW – 4,591,748, Victoria – 3,547,403, QLD – 2,707,464, WA – 1,356,228, SA – 1,102,827, TAS – 357,873, ACT – 246,436 and NT – 120,489 which was a 385,455 increase from the 2007 election, when 13,645,073 were enrolled to vote.

BUY PRINT

No time for woulda coulda shoulda from Gillard as less than 24 hours following the announcement the insults start to fly from furious Coalition as Liberal Senator George Brandis told ABC Radio, the Labor government had “as much legitimacy as the Pakistani cricket team”. Then Fort Fumble (or should that now be Fort Eggshell) faced a landslide when Wayne Swan appears at odds with independent by excluding mining tax from summit which promptly saw Windsor at odds with Labor over mining tax review as miners take up fight against rent tax again.

Even more revealing, Swan let Rudd down on MRRT: WA premier when it became obvious that many missed reading perhaps now politicians will stop trashing their reputations. One thing we are already assured of will be many more back flips as Hockey warns of government instability where it would be irresponsible to rule out The Revenge of The Emperor – Kevin Rudd back in the spotlight after Julia Gillard wins government.

I can see the headlines now “Gillard fights testosterone”, although I prefer, ‘here-ego’ again, to the polls! You would have noted that the new buzz word from our esteemed leader is “regional” which never saw the light of day in the pre–election hysteria. In whichever direction you look, you will see  too many seasoned bulls in the one paddock with very little room to ‘moo-ve’ in the lush paddocks surrounding Fort Fumble.

Economy held up well post – GFC, says RBA “in that market, unlike a number of others, conditions have generally returned to those before 2007.” Interesting to see that the Australian dollar has become the fifth most traded currency, overtaking the Swiss franc, with the AUD/USD remaining the fourth most traded currency pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold when directors met this week for their monthly cucumber sandwiches – rates unchanged, statement lacks ‘meat’.

The main triggers that determine home values are recessions, unemployment and interest rates, so this week’s announcement jobs surge increases rates risk delivers a strong possibility that in November we will see interest rates increased. On a positive note, investors are jumping back into term deposits making a comeback which means that the banks don’t have to buy more expensive money on the wholesale market. A great barometer for the property markets is consumer confidence, which is headed to ten–year highs.

Don’t bet the house on a property price bubble bursting provides an excellent assessment of how our property market is so different to the US housing market – subprime 2.0 is on its way. Yes our construction activity remains weak given poor planning to blame for building slump where again the culprit is Fort Crumble, Australia’s worst performing state government. The number of new dwellings completed in 1999 – 2000 was 32,358 and in 2007 – 2008 it was 14,795. The value of residential homes built in NSW since the late 1990’s has fallen from 36 per cent of Australian output to just over 20 per cent. The report estimates that for Sydney to keep up with demand, we will require 25,000 – 50,000 new homes each year. The present government target is 25,000. Here is an interesting graph showing Lower North Shore house and apartment sales from April 2008 to August 2010.

Here are the Mosman sales which remain consistent and strong for both demographics.

Mosman home values are still a very strong currency as the graphs indicate although when one looks at last week’s sales it is most obvious that the 2010 Federal election has confused consumer confidence. Based on our analysis of all data available, we can advise that we won’t see a property boom for at least a few years and prices will gradually increase. This leads me to suggest that we may now find ourselves in an entirely new space, where our households have transgressed from previous debt collection, to fast track debt reduction.

We don’t expect to see a sudden influx of properties on the market anytime soon, so get used to a property market that remains in a holding pattern (much better than a market in a folding pattern). The Mosman graph above, clearly indicates this and is anecdotal market evidence.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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10.09.10Robert Simeon7 Comments »

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Australia’s presiding government has now been in caretaker mode for  almost two months and in all probability, will move to a makeshift government, better known as a ‘political pantomime’. The political care factor is all about me, myself and I, but hopefully by this time next week, we will finally know the outcome of the 2010 federal election.

Already many cracks are appearing given we failed, Julia almost admits as three amigos turned into Mexican bandits which was best summed up with funny farm on the hill loses a few inmates, gains some more. Although at the end of the day, there is no escaping the fact that once decided, this will be the government we’ll have to have. It would be catastrophic for Julia Gillard’s CV to read Australia’s shortest serving (union elected) prime minister – no wonder she has turned green.

Unlike this week’s political speak – it was the Australian economy that “walked the walk and talked the talk”. This  highlighted the fact that Australians (not politicians) know their business. Australia’s economic growth accelerates as it remains one of the world’s best performing economies, with the latest data showing growth is back to pre – financial crisis levels. GDP growth was 3.3 per cent at an annual rate, faster than the 2.7 per cent pace in the March quarter, and surpassing the 2.9 per cent tipped by analysts. Just wish one particular bloke would mind his own business as Wayne Swan claims Labor responsible for GDP growth. Somebody should tell him that if that was the case, his government would have been re-elected with a majority.

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This is a sensational photo identifying our urban sprawl – at first I thought it had been photo shopped however I can assure you that it has not. Another brilliant Tim Mooney capture.

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GDP speeds ahead of economists’ forecast as China fuels mining sector. This  needs to be put into perspective given “the resilience of the economy is thanks to demand for the nation’s iron – ore, coal and other minerals, particularly from China, which has helped boost company profits. This has helped support business and consumer confidence and kept household consumption buoyant, a big contributor to economic growth in the June quarter.” Is this green Gillard’s political blunder? Given federal Labor and the Greens support future Mining Super Profits Taxation revenues which could deliver diabolical consequences as Australian miners flock to Africa. The moral to this story…?

So will all this positive data reporting be the catalyst for the long awaited return of the top–end real estate recovery? They say it comes in threes so first, we had anecdotal evidence that the Australian economy had returned to pre – global financial crisis levels. Secondly, we are now in September (which historically coincides with our peak selling period) although this market has been in  prolonged hibernation. Last but not least, property shakes off winter blues with $52 million sale. Historically, property markets follow GDP growth. Our property markets peaked in 2003 and 2007 which is clearly indicated in the following graph. If trends continue, 2010 will see a period of consolidation and growth and 2011 will return to 2007 prices and probably beyond.

The Mosman house market sales in 2010 (thus far) are far from impressive and turnover is well down on previous years.

MOSMAN HOUSES

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• 2007 – 414 transactions to a total value of $1,169,107,720
• 2008 – 445 transactions to a total value of $736,789,726
• 2009 – 474 transactions to a total value of $730,889,500
• 2010 – 172 transactions to a total value of $402,766,550

Source: Domain Property Data

Interesting to note that in 2010 there have been 141 recorded sales up to $5,000,000 (79 recorded sales up to $1,500,000 and 62 recorded sales above $2,500,000.) Just 19 sales have been recorded in excess of $5,000,000 (12 above $5,000,000, 2 above $6,000,000, 2 above $7,000,000, 1 above $9,000,000 and 2 above $10,000,000.)

When the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets next week, the cash rate will remain on hold despite some predicting a reduction. The reality is that the RBA will only cut rates when our economy starts heading pear – shaped. Risk of double – dip recession: Debelle which this week was dispelled when rate rise on the radar as profits surge.

Onwards, however not necessarily upwards the great housing dilemma continues as does Sydney rental vacancies rise, data shows. NSW is heading backwards as is our presiding government, Fort Crumble, which continues to stuff – up growth as developers furious at reversal of home levy savings. Australia’s worst ever government is dysfunctional, corrupt and rotten, the end is finally nigh for Labor as corruption fighters take on Keneally. Ferry services are being cut to Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay as Fort Crumble tries to appease voters in Labor heartland seats despite – No minister, don’t cut ferry services – let us run them, say private firms as NSW minister quits for using adult and gambling websites. The stethoscope was then applied as $131 million ‘missing from NSW health budget’ which would explain why NSW is terminally ill in the political sense.

Whatever happens next week when our federal government is announced we can expect plenty of pollies to be singing from different hymn books and not in chorus? Some suggest a parliament of enlightenment although I see a parliament of disenchantment.

Off to the polls we go – yet again.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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3.09.10Robert Simeon18 Comments »

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Try telling that to Fort Crumble who are in a desperate wait for all the cows to come home where the fields are alive with the sound of Independents. The rural revolution is coming thanks to Election 2010 which now resembles a classic case of “foot and mouth” disease, prompting post – election behaviour that could even suggest the arrival of “mad cow” disease on Australian shores. The classic symptoms were noticeable well before Australia was herded to the polls last Saturday – erratic behaviour, aggressive demeanour, disorientated memory and agitated herd mentality. The paddocks now require new fences and boundaries – hay hay, Australia has been hung out to dry.

The post electoral shin dig over at the back paddock had to be cancelled, due to a lack of support which sparked headline act Midnight Soil to go batty as they were coming out of retirement after agreeing to make a one–off election appearance.

Like a bull at a gate, the Mad Monk waved his red robe Abbott attacks Labor’s ‘civil war’ and the mantra could he heard all over the paddock reject Labor: voters’ message to independent MP’s as the hollow men led Labor to disaster. Then the head heifer corralled one of her baby bulls when PM bans powerbroker Arbib from appearing on Q&A. Such was the Labor of Love given the odds shorten on next Labor leader where it keeps getting worse as Gillard in big trouble no what happens given we have a tortuous road to government.

BUY PRINT

Back at the barn, even the cats showed their respective claws as the meows fast turned into a hissy fit McKew a ‘Labor hero’: Keneally then axing Rudd a strategic blunder:McKew. Then Rudd’s fault for dismal result, says Keneally although the alley cats were purring at a sneak preview of a Keneally bloodbath when the cool cats over in NSW go to the polls next March. NSW Labor headed for wipe out which brought about a familiar change after Julia … it’s the real Kristina.

Over in the northern paddock, more cats were hysterically meowing (as against dogs barking) where there was plenty of crying over spilt milk. I won’t suffer Rudd’s fate, says Bligh then Keneally lashed out at Bligh’s ‘NSW disease’ jibe. The 2010 Federal Election today resembles Old MacDonald’s farm although at this point we don’t envisage that the war will be enough to see our soldiers brought back home to restore order given disparities in voters’ priorities are even more stark now. Plenty of cries to cut the crap as electorates keep asking where is the vision? Now we have fighting on two fronts Labor war hurting bid for power and now Coalition begins its own civil war.

What spring promises for the market as sales sizzle, auctions cool although for the time being our property markets wrestles with election uncertainty. Australia this time around won’t be paying that much attention to what is happening in America given Obama running out of time to fix economy. This was not helped when this week it was revealed that US existing home sales dive to 15 – year low which is otherwise known as tumbling houses. Quite the opposite here in Australia given the latest HIA – CBA Housing Affordability Report identifies that more than ever before our property markets are out of reach. We are seeing some areas where prices are dropping then on the other side of the coin the prices are now increasing. Household debt in Australia has risen dramatically over the past three decades, but the number of home repossessions in Victoria and NSW is on the decline because we are keeping up the payments.

Last week we brought you the Dyson Austen Top 10 Prestige Residential Survey for January – March 2010 so this week we continue with the April – June 2010 results.

Interesting to note that the Eastern Suburbs recorded eight of the sales and Mosman posted two sales with RWM recording one of these two transactions. There are two interesting conclusions that can be observed from this data. Firstly, the top–end sales appear to be rebounding with suggestions that the upcoming Spring/Summer markets may see increased competition for these trophy homes. This was always going to happen – just that nobody really knew when.

Secondly, we have a new record since the global financial crisis (GFC).

The Dyson Austen Report, Simon Feilich acknowledged “if we look at this result (above) and the highest transaction ever achieved in the survey history ($45 million – Q3 2008) both sales occurred at a time when the $AU/US has just been devalued by 12% and almost 10% respectively.”

“NOTE: The jumbo prestige residential market is directly linked to the performance of the equity market, with the only other main external factor being the $AU/US rate as seen in Q3 2008 and the latest released Q2 2010.”

Since the election debacle the $A has started to fall again, due largely to the uncertainties ahead. It appears the nobody can form a government and even if they do, it will be a s#*& fight with all the internal bickering.

So I predict we will all be headed back to the polls in October.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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27.08.10Robert Simeon2 Comments »

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Congratulations,

Finally we are in the Grand Final for the plate this weekend ..where we deserve to be in my opinion. To me it really is a play off for third or fourth in the main competition overall as the promotion of three teams and the wet weather completely stuffed up the points system. The good news is we win a plate if we win on Sunday.

Now … last Sunday’s game – what a great result. Only minutes before the game did we know who was fit enough to run on. The walking wounded and the sick all arriving in all forms of disrepair!

At one stage we only had 14 and looking shaky.

With Eddy still on crutches and Jock in fashionable moon boots, Alex out from a neck injury the day before, ( luckily just bruising), Mitch, Sam and Banjo all limping from bashing each other up the day before (Joey’s v Shore) and Josh climbing out of bed with a virus to help out, I was starting to think this was going to be a tough day in the Oval Office!

However, the boys all agreed that had to ramp up that little extra to overcome the adversity, Campbell took over as skipper, Will Collard stepped into Banjo’s big boots ,Oscar moved to centre Sam Harrison from back row to wing again.. so on we ran into battle.. shaken but not stirred!

As I have stated previously about Burraneer they are a very tough defensive side, I found out on Sunday nine of their boys play rugby league on Saturday, hence their great tackling defence.

We changed tactics and decided to attack down the blind side away from their crash tackling centres or chip over them in open play.

From the kick – off the boys were positive and aggressive, Balmoral Oval was hard and dusty as both sides launched into it. After a few minutes Will Collard cleverly switched play down the blind side and sent Sammy H on a run, as the defence closed he grubbered ahead… the race was on, Ben Reader was on the spot (as always) to gather the ball and race over to score. Locky  P converted from midway from the side line … Mosman up 7-0.

The forwards were right into it, Tommy was crunching them in defence and giving them grief with his usual bullocking runs. Ben Wicket continued his good form in the tight stuff his work rate better every week and making his physical presence felt, as was Hugh and Gus (these two are really hitting there straps as well now) and Josh who was running hot in form and temperature (now about 101*) .. in short the engine room were all running hot. The reason we are winning is our tight five is  dominating and giving us go forward. Well done you boys – another outstanding effort.

Joe was winning some fantastic lineout ball and making his usual thousand (in Ray Warren voice) tackles a game, and Ben Reader was mighty at the breakdown. Joe and Ben shut down Burraneer’s best dominant forward at the breakdown, as discussed prior to the game, this was a huge challenge and they rose to the occasion.

Campbell as usual was dominant all over the paddock and was having a great captains game leading by example, he was rewarded soon after with another try from our chip and chase tactics, which saw Burra reeling and now down 14-0 after the conversion next to the posts.

Burra hit back, and soon scored out wide and it was 14 -5 shortly before half time.

In the backs Oscar was having a whale of a game tackling everything that moved in midfield, Ben was doing likewise and setting up some good backline moves for Remy to chime in and give our winger Sam and Mitch a few good runs.

Locky at 5/8 was having his best game in that position varying play nicely with some kicks ,runs and slick service, but more importantly .. bringing the backs up in a good straight defensive line.

After the break, Josh was having a well earned rest, Locky Miller replaced him with fresh legs and got stuck in straight as he always does, then Banjo and Sam Allen came on to see if they could put in half a game with their crook legs as Mitch and Will (who had a great game for us filling in for Banjo) had a rest.

Both sides set off at a cracking pace again, the game tightened no team was giving an inch, the boys from Burra were not going down without a fight, but nobody messes with the Mosman 13A Whales!!

Banjo turned them around again with his clever kicking, Sam Allen had a great 50m run after a good backline move, we were playing good clever 15 man rugby everyone from Remy at fullback (still in great form) to Gus at hooker involved.

A  terrific penalty goal from Locky P put us ahead 17-5 with some breathing space, but Burra came back again, will they ever quit these guys? NO !!

After 7 straight penalties to Burra (will this Ref ever give us a break!) they scored and converted to trail Mosman 17 -12.

The boys held on to full time and thoroughly deserved their win. They showed great heart and  team spirit.

Oscar put in a great man of the Match performance closely followed by Captain Campbell, Tom the” Horton Express” and every other player deserved a wrap.

So the walking wounded made the grand final on Team Spirit,,Courage,,Neurofen,Voltaren,and lots of bandages.

To say that Jane and I are proud of this team is an understatement, all the injured boys are there every week to cheer their mates on, they play sick and injured for each other.

Remember also, many, I mean many players go their whole Rugby life and never play in a Grand Final or have a chance of winning a medal, so lets enjoy the experience and give it our best shot,win, lose or draw from here all these boys are already winners.

NOW BRING ON COLLAROY…..

Cheers

Coach

23.08.10Stephen Patrick2 Comments »

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ABC Online’s chief political writer Annabel Crabb described it as the greatest oral challenge of our generation given The Emperor’s “greatest moral challenge” no longer exists, or does it? On the menu we were forced to consume Gillard’s pork pies hard to resist then we had the hidden truth behind the PM’s ‘impromptu’ speech. The 2010 federal election spending spree based on a rigour in funding promises doesn’t count for much given we have all heard the term ‘the cheque’s in the mail’ although this Sunday, the elected party will have to face the morning after … where Treasury will start costing those policies on the run, Sydney’s Parramatta to Epping rail line will come under much greater scrutiny and the inevitable financial quarantine until the next federal election.

The most frightening policy is, without a doubt, the $43 billion (43 thousand million dollars) national broadband network which stands to become the greatest white elephant in Australian political history and the biggest financial commitment for an Australian government. Interest payments for this scheme presently stand at $4.500 million per week which prompted Malcolm Turnbull to write on Business Spectator Why the NBN will fail which prompted one comment on the blog: Thank you Malcolm. I think blind Freddy could see that can you publish it in Braille as well? The leading question: is Stephen Conroy conning us on the NBN?

Classic Tim Mooney this shot was captured last Friday when the big Southerly bringing about the cancellation of the Manly Ferries

BUY PRINT

Someone should tell Julia Gillard that the fastest growing network in Australia is wireless – tailor made for Blackberry, iPhone, iPad and laptops, none of which require cable. Latest data reveals Internet searches are the most popular online activity on mobile phones. Some 73 per cent of users conduct online searches by mobile phone now, compared with 30 per cent a year ago. This explains why we launched our mobile property website last week, a first in Mosman. (This is designed to be viewed through your mobile phone)

Gillard & Co have used the white technical elephant as the NBN ‘sandbags’ for marginal seats – we should all be very concerned about this roll- out, especially as the private sector wanted no financial involvement. In economic jargon, this equates to ‘no return on investment’.

The 2010 federal election has completely ignored housing policy initiatives, because they are too hard to fathom and here is why. Rents leap as race to find home intensifies “Forget population growth, we’re not even seeing the housing needed for existing people. There’s an extremely severe housing shortage unique to Sydney.”

Housing affordability nears record low the HIA – CBA Housing Affordability Index fell 9.1 per cent in the June quarter to be 32 per cent compared to the same period last year. HIA chief economist, Harley Dale, said ‘there has been a lack of commitment during the recent federal election campaign to address the substantial hurdles aspiring home owners face.” Then “key federal policy priorities need to include a program to reduce new housing costs such as inequitable taxes and charges, better planning approvals systems, and a dedicated federal housing and development ministry to coordinate policy across all sectors and levels of government,” Mr Dale said.

I don’t share the belief by some that housing bear warns again of bubble waiting to burst as investors who are claiming losses may leave the rental markets. According to Tax Office figures, the proportion of taxpayers who own rental property has risen from 6.5 per cent in 1989 to 13.5 per cent in 2009, two thirds of whom claim a loss on investments. The rental markets are problematic, which is why we sold our property management portfolio earlier this year, to focus on our core business which is, of course, selling properties.

Always a brilliant barometer for the Sydney top end property market is the prestige property market report by Dyson Austen Top 10 for the 2010 January – March quarter.  Our very own Steve Patrick posted the fourth biggest sale with 19 Morella Road Clifton Gardens. Seven sales were recorded in the Eastern Suburbs, two to Mosman and one to Manly – overall a positive result for the prestige property markets.

The comparative analysis from 2004 to 2010 is always fascinating where you will see that the top end is holding its own and we predict a conservative improvement in the quarters ahead. One should remember that when this end of the market starts registering anecdotal sales results, the rest of the market follows suit. We don’t foresee a boom market in the immediate future, but we do see renewed market confidence and sentiment.

Next week, we will publish the Dyson Austen Top 10 sales for the 2010 April – June quarter.

So off to the polls we go tomorrow to elect a federal government for the next three years and by all accounts, it will be close. My prediction is a narrow Tony Abbott victory simply because NSW is vehemently opposed to anything Labor – Why Labor is losing the west. NSW will only start to see rapid improvement with infrastructure when they have a Liberal prime minister and a Liberal premier which will happen in March 2011. The day Gillard stopped spinning: NSW indefensible where I’m sure she regrets her policy on the run announcement about the Parramatta to Epping rail spin which will never happen under the current regime.

Who would have thought that not since 1931, we could witness just the second incumbent government removed after just the one elected term?  Who would have thought we may witness history where two prime ministers were removed in the one term?

Maybe Australia is moving forward!  Voters in Queensland and NSW will determine the outcome.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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20.08.10Robert Simeon8 Comments »

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The 2010 federal election is all about the polls (cometh the spin) then three years on, we have more broken promises than promises that actually came to fruition. Neither party has a single blueprint for the Australian economy, nor the nation as a whole and this was classically highlighted during the global financial crisis spend– a– thon which we are told constantly, saved the Australian economy from recession. Australia’s need to invest in infrastructure, is urgent – roads, rail and ports and this is why Fort Crumble faces election annihilation when NSW goes to the polls in March 2011.

Infrastructure in NSW ‘average to poor’ a scathing new report card from Engineers Australia where more than three quarters of the sectors require major or critical changes. This report highlights the point that industry can identify the problems, yet elected governments are incapable of preparing a work – in – progress strategy for Australia. Fix these problems because today our population is well ahead of infrastructure which was brilliantly explained in gotchanomics doesn’t bring home the real bacon.

Labor struggling in key states which led to rolling out the barrel – Labor denies pork – barrel suggestion. Andrew West from the Sydney Morning Herald wrote Back on track – and just the ticket for commuters “It is politically brave for a prime minister to appear publicly with a NSW premier these days. It is crazy brave to make a joint announcement about public transport. The NSW public is so cynical about public transport promises – after 15 years of projects being announced, postponed, shelved and re – announced – that voters no longer believe state Labor can deliver a crucial service.” The $2.100 billion rail link announcement for Parramatta and Epping will no doubt be shelved once Fort Crumble is removed permanently at the next state election – all aboard the PM’s Parramatta express. Who could forget reading How lazy Nathan Rees sold NSW short which explains why Gillard and Keneally fail on Sydney’s transport infrastructure funding. More than half the pledged monies promised in the current election will not be spent until after the next election in 2013 – pork rolled out on the never-never.

BUY PRINT

Surveys reveal that Australia is home to the world’s least – affordable property. Pundits are at odds over whether it might end in a bang or a whimper – a great read Forever blowing bubbles. The Real Estate Institute of Australia recently announced that a contributing factor to the increase in house prices and the decline in housing affordability, is the under-supply of housing. According to the National Housing Supply Council, the gap between the supply and demand for housing will increase in the next eight years and this will put further pressure on house prices.

Nothing new on offer since the houses that Kevin built – “It might be important to voters – but not the parties”, wrote Kevin Saulwick. “There may have been more pressing issues than housing affordability at the 2007 election, but not many. Which makes it all the more remarkable that three years later – and with the same level of community concern about the cost of living – there has been little focus on housing by Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott. When Kevin Rudd sailed into office, it was due to Labor’s success in putting itself on the side of the angels when it came to housing costs. Rudd’s message was simple: he sympathised with families bleeding ever – larger payments on mortgages and rent. And he came to office offering policies aimed at increasing the supply of affordable properties to help reduce the pressures.” The Emperor was de-throned by the Orange Roughie because he had lost his way, then poor polling saw a phoenix – like resurrection to lead Labor to better polling – hence the soap opera.

Housing affordability can come down only with much improved infrastructure policies – Capital city house prices up 18 per cent from last year – ABS even though home loans sink to nine – year low. When infrastructure is non–existent, this leads to construction slumps in July because there is no point building, where there is no demand (especially when NSW has no South West rail link, North West rail link, Parramatta to Epping rail, M4 East and M5 East duplication). If these facilities were in place as promised, NSW construction would be booming and housing affordability and rentals much more affordable. How can Australia “move forward” when infrastructure is moving backwards, compared to our population growth? Policy on the run again as NSW Labor in the dark over Gillard’s Parramatta – Epping rail link promise which has been revealed as the rail pledge a carrot in push for McKew win for the seat of Bennelong – Maxine who?

The last remaining economic data statistic before next Saturday’s election was released this week – shock jobless rise where the three states of major concern for federal Labor – NSW, Queensland and Western Australia all experienced unemployment increases.

Whilst home loans fall as interest rates bite the good news is that the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA statement suggests longer pause given RBA forecasts plenty of blue sky ahead. With the election ‘soap opera’ out of the way next Saturday, we can expect some normality back in our property markets. Electoral promises rarely come to fruition as The Emperor “Kevin 07” found, even though he has been brought back to life – with a faint pulse.

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) has been busy working on our infrastructure and this week, we released our RWM mobile website. Previously with your mobile phone you could view our website with your phone which was a navigation nightmare because it is impossible to view a macro site on a micro application and do justice to our properties. Agentpoint our developers this week launched our mobile micro site for mobile phones users.

Open a browser on your mobile phone and type in www.m.rwm.com.au. Our research and development team are currently testing new technologies, all to improve your RWM real estate experience..
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Online is our real estate industry point of difference, because we are the only agency that gets it – so now you get it. Our clients can now sit outside one of our properties and view it on their mobile phone (outside set inspection times) from our mobile RWM website.

Thanks to Steve and Richard for filling in whilst I was relaxing in our Thailand branch office which is better known (by me) as the Tipsy Prawn.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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13.08.10Robert Simeon5 Comments »

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The last few weeks (months actually) have been lacklustre to say the least. While sales in the unit market have been strong, with most units between $500k and $800k selling in a week if sensibly priced, the top end of town has struggled, as you all know.

But wait … a bleep on the screen, then another and another … all in a week. Yes, we are starting to see some aggressive buyers getting back into the market.

With a good sale in Burrawong Avenue last week, coupled with one in Burran Ave and another in the middle of Balmoral underway  (the 3 sales ranging between $4m and $8m ), it seems the local Mosman agents have some traction, with the smart money moving in when all seemed quiet on the Western Front.

BUY PRINT

As my first boss in real estate 30 years ago told me, the smart money buys in gloom and sells in bloom.  One just has to have the nerve to be the first amongst one’s peers … who all seem to be experts in property.

Robert managed to sell 2 properties between $2m and $3m from his deck chair in Thailand (we might pay him to stay there and work), so it could be game on after the election.

This week we launched a fabulous home at 22 Richmond Avenue, Cremorne and the response to the ads has been fantastic. We might be in for a busy weekend!

The Australian quoted economist, Craig James, this week saying, “It is a case of mission accomplished for now for the RBA”, who said the economy was growing strongly.

We are not going to get carried away with all the ‘talk’.  We know a lot of people are doing it tough in their businesses and caution will remain a common theme.  However, like all business people, we like to see light at the end of the tunnel. Now Robert would jump in here and say the NSW Government is inept and doesn’t know how to build tunnels, but luckily this tunnel is built on statistics and confidence, not steel and concrete.

Stay tuned as the election looms. We hope to see you out and about.  Robert will return next week to liven things up. He loves election time!

Cheers

Stephen

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

6.08.10Stephen Patrick1 Comment »