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It was more like an episode from Yes Minister, where both Fort Fumble (Federal Government) and Fort Crumble (NSW Government) tried to outdo one another at the Ministries for Incompetence and Implosion (what an art form they made of it). Fort Crumble is hardly flush with cash as it languishes in deficit yet it still manages to masticate on its scrapped CBD Metro for a north – west rail link which is now its tenth transport cancellation.

The Ministry for Incompetence and Implosion then asked voters to “take it on trust, because work would not begin until 2014 at the earliest”. Obviously nobody at Fort Crumble knows how to read a poll Confirmed: scrapped Metro cost $271 million because this would have to be close to the greatest stuff – up in NSW’s parliamentary history. To reassure voters, it then introduced a $30 – a – year – levy on motor vehicle registrations which is estimated to deliver $500 million over 10 years.Would it be improper to suggest that liquidators will be called in well before 2014? Yes Minister!

The Premier, Kristina Keneally was on a roll when endorsing a plan to build one of Sydney’s biggest hotels which just happens to be 100 metres out over Sydney Harbour. Harbour high – rise breaks all the rules but she insisted that this decision would not create a precedent that other developers would seek to follow? Well Sarah, (I mean Kristina) a precedent is defined as: any act, decision, or case that serves as a guide or justification for subsequent situations. Yes Minister!

Tim Mooney flew to Melbourne this week and why not? A fantastic shot of Melbourne CBD and the Yarra River.

Tim Mooney Photography

The other Ministry for Incompetence and Implosion – Fort Fumble had The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) going somewhat batty when his rock star minister somehow lost his voice Peter Garrett dumps dodgy home insulation scheme. Call me a cynic, but I observed that the announcement was scheduled for 1.45 pm last Friday. Torah Bright won gold at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver at 1.00 pm in the half pipe – must have been either a coincidence or political spin. Yes Minister!

Whilst The Emperor accepts ultimate responsibility for his insulation debacle which has been linked to four deaths and 93 house fires, with another 80,000 houses at risk, this scheme cost taxpayers $2.500 billion and thousands will be out of work after insulation back flip. The Emperor was quick to appease a voter backlash so (he pledged another $42 million) to the (approximately) 7,500 businesses installing installation and 180,000 houses that have to be re-checked. The Emperor’s rock star minister declared that he can read music but not commissioned reports. When the Minter Ellison Report was handed to his stage hands in April 2009, it took ten months to arrive in the rock star’s recording studio – Yes Minister!

The Emperor had to move fast as Torah Bright had concluded her Olympic event – so out came the announcement $69 million for biometric checks in counter – terrorism. It was suggested that some are: Going batty over blah – blah. Paul Sheehan from the Sydney Morning Herald had a different spin: How Rudd the dud dropped Australia in alphabet soup. A horrific week for Fort Fumble: Collins subs top $7 billion of dud projects submarines don’t require Pink Batts). It was just not cricket when it was announced that the Victorian gocernment was flying 25 Indian journalists to Australia at a cost of $250,000 – business class flights, tours of the Melbourne Cricket Ground (our cricketers are in New Zealand), concert tickets and accommodation at top hotels – to show that everything is hunky dory Down Under. Despite some saying Indian money ‘could be better spent’ one would think that given the intoxication and obsession with governments to spend money that we are actually in surplus – (obviously they believe that we are).

The debate then moved to Australia’s mortgage debt blow – out when Chris Zappone wrote in the Sydney Morning Herald “The federal government relaxed its foreign investment rules for residential property early last year. Whilst the controlling body, the Foreign Investment Review Board, does not disclose the exact number of sales to overseas investors, anecdotal reports from would – be local buyers and real estate agents across the country point to a surge in spending from Asia – particularly mainland China. Agents are also setting up offices in China and arranging “property tourism” to tap the demand.” I am a strong believer that our real estate market needs to be local not international and it would be very interesting to see why The Emperor changed these qualification rules? Are they considering returning to the previous status quo?

Furthermore, under his regime will it remain in place given the economic recovery in Australia? The Housing Industry Association (HIA) noted that (home ownership was even more out of reach) when housing affordability tanked 18.4 per cent in the December quarter and was 22.3 per cent lower than twelve months earlier. The HIA is predicting a modest housing recovery in 2010 with about 152,000 dwelling starts and we need international competition?

Housing debt is in overdrive where the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) figures identify that housing debt hit $910.1 billion in December, which is up 17 per cent over the twelve months and up 92 per cent since December 2004. Total housing debt is set to reach $1 trillion within the next twelve months and rest assured, interest rates will be heading up not down.

The Emperor has plenty on his plate all in an election year Rudd, Gillard fight over who foots the bill for $1,800 canapés and champagne wow – when it rains it pours.

This week we broke a new Australian record when subscriber sales hit $904,079,220 and real estate agencies are just starting to know what a database can do! From the good, to the bad and ugly Estate agent Shannon Daniels made a real killing I can’t believe that somebody would be dumb enough to run his “Deceased Estate (Vendors Dying To Sell)” campaign given the vendors are very much alive and well.

Given the lodged complaints Shannon Daniels won’t be hearing – thank you, Mr Hooker!

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here – the auctioneers hammer was silent in Mosman

This open for inspections – here

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26.02.10Robert Simeon9 Comments »

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The  worry is, will Fort Fumble (Federal government) tax the living daylights out of businesses to pay down the Treasury’s projected budget deficit for 2009/10 of $57.7 billion? . Nobody denies the fact that Australia (like the rest of the World) required a stimulus package although in Australia there remains a strong school of thought that our economy was misdiagnosed and over-medicated. With the convalescing now over, we are  told that all markets (property included) are back to 2007 levels. What a recovery!  Annualised growth rate in November 2009 was 5.4 per cent, December 2009 up to 6.2 per cent which was 3.5 points above the long – term projections.

The Westpac – Melbourne Institute, leading index of economic activity, (they predict the future three to nine months ahead) suggests that our financial genie (not to be confused with Wayne Swan’s inflation genie) is predicting boom times ahead.  Thank goodness we offer a weekly edition, because just 365 days ago, (February 2009) we were  told by The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) that ‘this is the worst economic catastrophe since The Great Depression’. Elected politicians keep pointing to cash splashes and stimulus packages and I must admit that the Rudd approved bicycle track at The Spit has done wonders for  the Mosman economy!  A defining moment that delivered our economic recovery and hundreds of Australian municipalities share stories of such inspiration.

Chowder Bay, Clifton Gardens.  Well worth a visit and drop into Ripples on picturesque Sydney Harbour for a fine dining experience.  On the right hand side of our page we list links to some of Sydney’s finest eateries as well as other businesses too, for your perusal and enjoyment.

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. www.timmooneyphotography.com .

The news just got worse (again) for The Emperor when a Senate enquiry revealed this week  an “alleged” gross waste of tax payer dollars (otherwise known as his stimulus) with the ineffective insulation of up to 400,000 homes under the national home insulation program. A study revealed that 30 to 40 per cent of work done was not compliant. Quite scary given that approximately one million homeowners have taken advantage of this stimulus programme. Loss of life has occurred as well as house fires that result directly from our very own version of No (know) Minister! Fort Fumble now has to allocate another fifty million taxpayer dollars  to fix the shoddy workmanship.

Now let’s wrap up the Neutral Bay house sales comparison for 2009 and 2008. For this week’s new subscribers, here is the Mosman and Cremorne sales data. It’s not exclusive.  All agents/agencies have access, but they don’t have a database or a newsletter.  For our competitors, technology is not a priority!  The Sydney Morning Herald last Saturday, revealed that its Domain property portals Top 10 searched for NSW suburbs on Domain in 2009.

• 1. Surry Hills 2,537,285
• 2. Mosman 2,291,860
• 3. Randwick 2,237,146
• 4. Darlinghurst 2,159,211
• 5. Paddington 2,030,416
• 6. Newtown 1,872,869
• 7. Chatswood 1,685,820
• 8. Marrickville 1,694,580
• 9. Bondi 1,682,834
• 10. Coogee 1,662,332

. When one adds up the Top 10 that is 19,854,353 online inspections for just ten suburbs alone – yet agents/agencies continue to place the Internet on ignore? The real reason is that when it comes to the Internet, the agents/agencies are the ones that have to pay for it – not vendors. When one observes the dominant agencies across Sydney they are the businesses that offer and present the strongest online relationships within their demographic real estate markets.

NEUTRAL BAY PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2009 to 31 DECEMBER 2009

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• Total number offered – 60 (Mosman 334)
• Total number of sales recorded – 60 (Mosman 303)
• Total value sold – $83,281,400 (Mosman $668,966,377)
• Public Auction – 13 properties to a total value of $19,462,000
• Private Treaty – 47 properties to a total value of $63,819,400
• Median price – $1,134,000 (Mosman $2,000,000)
• Average price – $1,388,023 (Mosman $2,397,728)
• Highest sale – $7,600,000 RWM (Mosman $13,500,000 RWM)

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NEUTRAL BAY PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2008 to 31 DECEMBER SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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• Total number offered – 67 (Mosman 360)
• Total number of sales recorded – 56 (Mosman 287)
• Total value sold – $93,561,000 (Mosman $774,865,612)
• Public Auction – 17 properties to a total value of $23,432,000
• Private Treaty – 39 properties to a total value of $70,129,000
• Median price – $1,216,000 (Mosman $2,275,000)
• Average price – $1,670,732 (Mosman $2,738,041)
• Highest sale – $4,650,000 (Mosman $14,700,000 RWM)

RP Data revealed this week that in 2009, the highest recorded number of first – home buyers on record plunged into the property market. A staggering 191,000 new entrants. This figure equates to 70,000 more first – home buyers jumping in before the grants finished. A 55 per cent increase!  This is a potential train wreck should the cash rate keep climbing. Only time will tell. America had sub -prime and Australia (potentially) has grant -prime.

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) consumer confidence eased in February (although it was 36 per cent higher than a year ago) with businesses and households  throwing caution to the wind. The RBA said that business loans declined seven per cent in 2009 which is the lowest recorded since the recession of the early nineties.

If you think The Emperor has had a tough couple of weeks, the Bungle State – Fort Crumble (NSW government) continues to show its complete incompetence. The $5.3 billion CBD Metro is looking as shaky as a poll and already aligned with the Cross City Tunnel and Lane Cove Tunnel – both broke just like Fort Crumble – Metro headed for disaster:  Opposition.

Finally – two comments grabbed my attention this week.

The first – The Emperor, announcing a $10 million boost to meet a Labor commitment to halve the nation’s homeless rates by 2020.  A fantastic cause but what if it was  $60 million?  Unfortunately, the other  $50 million has to be spent on the insulation stuff – up. Well it is an election year  and we remember in 1987, Bob Hawke launching  his election campaign by promising that no child would be living in poverty within three years. The National Youth Commission (NYC) identified the number of  homeless 12 – 18 year olds fell from 26,060 in 2001 to 21,940 in 2006;  Now, the situation is worsening due to soaring home prices. Housing affordability fell by 140 per cent between 1986 and 2006 where in 1986, 3.6 times average income was needed to buy a house;  by 2006, the purchase price required 7.0 years pay. I keep tagging Kevin Rudd in Virtual Realty News in the hope that when he reads the edition he will post on the blog. I know that his office reads it -  just a tad slow on blogging!

The second is Fort Crumble’s NSW Planning Minister, Tony Kelly, who obviously has had so many portfolios (and Premiers) he has lost the plot.  No pun intended!  More land won’t mean more houses: Kelly. Given that Fort Crumble can’t roll out any transport infrastructure this is what he said “prospective buyers should blame private sector inaction, and the fact most people want to live close to Sydney’s centre and not its rural outskirts.” Maybe Tony, that perception is aligned to the fact that your very own government struggles to build a sand castle let alone a transport model that works or arrives on time for that matter. Not to forget the taxes that developers are forced to pay to obtain a Development Approval/Building Approval.

See you next week to upset somebody else!

Cheers ^__^

This week’s open for inspections http://www.rwm.com.au/sales-list/open_times_sales/

For this week’s recorded Balmoral real estate, Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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19.02.10Robert Simeon6 Comments »

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In real estate we speak about position, position and position. Sometimes when politicians appear on television, their position can be an embarrassment because, although they can talk the talk, they can’t walk the walk! The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) found himself in that exact position when he appeared on Q&A – Monday night on that ABC at Old Parliament House, Canberra. Journalists had an absolute field day (as did viewers) “At the end of the day, the kids caned Kevin on Q&A” by David Penberthy in The Punch (another great daily online read). I well remember noticing this point. “One of the funniest things about the show was how so many of the young people in the crowd smirked in amusement at Rudd’s Ruddisms – “there’s no magic wand”, “but you know something”, and the ever – present “at the end of the day”, and his use of hand gestures and the sweeping arm to explain the scary arrival of the GFC.” He was trying to gild his lily which wilted after approximately five minutes of prudent interrogation by our country’s future leaders!

They say “nothing makes it harder to remember campaign promises than getting elected” and The Emperor would have observed that his Fort Fumble is now under greater scrutiny and attack from all sides. The Daily Telegraph ran the following stories “Kevin Rudd’s 795 days of empty promises” and “Kevin Rudd’s report card: could do better”. A tough week for The Emperor or is it just that politicians make headlines running for something or running from something?

No doubt he will be very fit by the time he takes us to the polls this year given so many empty promises have glaringly emerged with our “economic conservative” Prime Minister. Joe Hockey fared much better as “Giant Tinkerbell” tutu, magic wand and crown.

Surfs Up! As too are wobbegong attacks although I did chuckle when a witness described the shark as a Great White – although these surfers look unperturbed whilst catching waves at Manly Beach

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Tim Mooney Photography

So from politics, let’s move to property and performance where we mark the report card for Cremorne house results from 2007 to 2009 (next week we examine Neutral Bay houses).

CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2009 to 31 DECEMBER 2009

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• Total number offered – 91 (Mosman 334)
• Total number of sales recorded – 87 (Mosman 303)
• Total value sold – $157,197,000 (Mosman $668,966,377)
• Public Auction – 25 properties to a total value of $38,727,500
• Private Treaty – 62 properties to a total value of $118,469,500
• Median Price – $1,450,000 (Mosman $2,000,000)
• Average Price – $1,871,392 (Mosman $2,397,728)
• Highest Sale – $13,500,000 (RWM)

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CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2008 to 31 DECEMBER 2008

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• Total number offered – 96 (Mosman 360)
• Total number of sales recorded – 80 (Mosman 287)
• Total value sold – $164,864,550 (Mosman $774,865,612)
• Public Auction – 24 properties to a total value of $48,531,000
• Private Treaty – 56 properties to a total value of $116,333,550
• Median Price – $1,650,000 (Mosman $2,000,000)
• Average Price – $2,113,648 (Mosman $2,738,041)
• Highest Sale – $8,280,000 (RWM)

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CREMORNE PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2007 to 31 DECEMBER 2007

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• Total number offered – 100 (Mosman 456)
• Total number of sales recorded – 96 (Mosman 412)
• Total value sold – $223,006,433 (Mosman $1,182,372,720)
• Public Auction – 28 properties to a value of $52,452,600
• Private Treaty – 68 properties to a value of $174,861,433
• Median Price – $1,700,000 (Mosman $2,300,000)
• Average Price – $ 2,347,436 (Mosman $2,869,836)
• Highest Sale – $15,000,000 (new Cremorne record)

Source: Australian Property Monitors

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SUMMARY CREMORNE HOUSE PRICES FROM 2007 TO 2009

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Note that for Mosman and Cremorne in 2008 and 2009, the years of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) posted the highest recorded sales for each year. During the GFC, Cremorne traded as usual 2009 – 87 sales, 2008 produced 80 sales and 2007 recorded 96 sales. Mosman bunkered down 2009 – 303 sales, 2008 – 287 sales and 2007 – 412. It should also be noted that Cremorne posted the highest sale in 2009 at $13,500,000 over Mosman $13,200,000 (both vendors are Virtual Realty News subscribers).

So Mosman property and performance was back in the spotlight this week when it made the front page of The Sydney Morning Herald . “No more withdrawal symptoms as bankers again splash the cash” and “A bonus is a must, says the real estate crowd” . I would add that our 2010 market is too early to call – a key clue for subscribers to our daily email alerts will be our under offer and sold alerts – our website is now the Mosman sales barometer.

Peter Martin from The Sydney Morning Herald sent another warning to The Emperor when he wrote “Interest rate rises in Labor hands” – “The head of the Reserve Bank has held out the prospect of continuing low interest rates, as long as Labor sticks to its pledge to restrain spending.” Which is highly unlikely in an election year although I did chuckle when I read, “Joyce link between rates, ‘gross over-simplification’, says Henry”.

Somewhat ironic, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) saying that Labor again accumulated debt and the Howard regime paid it off in seventeen years of unprecedented economic growth. This again points me to the Henry Tax Report which is as mysterious as a government grant from The Emperor in a Liberal seat – it never happens. Makes one wonder just why this report (six weeks since its release) remains highly confidential.

What is not confidential is that RWM no longer offer properties for rent. Our total focus now is on sales and Agentpoint has delivered what I consider the smartest homepage in the real estate industry.

We are proud to further develop our online business – as our business is your business.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Balmoral real estate, Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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12.02.10Robert Simeon3 Comments »

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There is no doubting the volatility of home prices and this became more evident when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided not to increase the official cash rate. The new money in our property markets is under serious threat. So too, are the financial institutions which can ill afford a reverse in property prices. These very markets were in growth mode during the global financial crisis when the established (old money) property markets went into actual decline. The RBA is now faced with a real estate conundrum as is the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) with reporting accuracy.

Christopher Joye wrote in Business Spectator this week “ABS overstates house price growth” – “the ABS’s median price numbers are being artificially inflated by the fading of first timers, who are being replaced by up graders buying more expensive homes.” Which is exactly what happened in Mosman last year as the market awoke from the GFC (from June onwards) as did the majority of top-end property markets. Joye wrote “While the ABS results will no doubt trigger the inevitable media excitement, the hard empirical fact is that Australian homes have been recording consistent capital growth of about 2 – 3 per cent per quarter since the start of 2009. It is comforting to note, however, that Australian house price growth has not outpaced the growth in household disposable incomes since around 2002.”

The building in the bottom left hand corner is the clue where Sydney Ports are located – a magnificent heritage building on Sydney Harbour identifying our rich history

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Tim Mooney Photography

Understandably the media ran amok (trying to get those rivers of gold running again) with the ABS figures – Australian house price index rose 5.6 per cent in the December quarter and the September quarter was upwardly revised to 4.4 per cent. ABS figures in the year to December identified that the house price index rose 13.6 per cent. The only problem is, that ABS figures are not considered as accurate as the other data aggregators.

So let’s take a look at Australian Property Monitors – Domain Property Data (our preferred data aggregator given that they list the actual property addresses for all the properties contained within this report) revealed for Mosman house sales in 2009 – 2008 – 2007 a comparative analysis where you can be the judge.

MOSMAN PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2009 to 1 DECEMBER 2009

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• Total number offered – 334
• Total number of sales recorded – 303. (31 still unrecorded)
• Total Value Sold – $668,966,377
• Public Auction – 62 properties to a value of $94,857,000
• Private Treaty – 241 properties to a value of $574,109,377
• Median Price – $2,000,000
• Average Price – $2,397,728
• Highest Sale $13,200,000 (RWM)

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MOSMAN PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2008 to 31 DECEMBER 2008

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• Total number offered – 360
• Total number of sales recorded – 287
• Total Value Sold – $774,865,612
• Public Auction – 65 properties to a value of $126,645,250
• Private Treaty – 222 properties to a value of $648,220,362
• Median Price – $2,275,000
• Average Price – $2,738,041
• Highest Sale $14,700,000 (RWM)

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MOSMAN PROPERTIES SOLD REPORT – (House and Semi only)

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1 JANUARY 2007 to 31 DECEMBER 2007

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• Total number offered – 456
• Total number of sales recorded – 412
• Total Value Sold – $1,182,372,720
• Public Auction – 132 properties to a value of $292,042,000
• Private Treaty – 280 properties to a value of $890,330,720
• Median Price – $2,300,000
• Average Price – $2,869,836
• Highest Sale $22,500,000 (new record price)

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Next week Cremorne House and Semi sales

SUMMARY MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES FROM 2007 to 2009

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It is interesting to extrapolate data post GFC. In 2007 the number of houses offered to the marketplace was 456 and in 2008 the number offered, fell -21 per cent to 360. In 2009, we witnessed market consolidation when 334 houses were offered at a – 7 per cent decline. One must not forget that in 2008 and 2009, scuttlebutt had property voyeurs believing that more than half the houses in Mosman were available for sale (this would equate to approximately 2,500 homes as against the recorded 360 and 334 respectively). Thank goodness one Mosman agency has the technology and desire to set the record straight.

Sold properties in 2007 came in at 412 and dropped -30 per cent in 2008 to 287 then in latter 2009 we saw an interesting turnaround where sales increased to 303 – a +5.5 per cent increase. The same patterns can be observed in ‘total value sold’ statistics when the total in 2007 was $1,182,372,720. This fell -34.5 per cent in 2008 to record $774,865,612. In 2009 we started to see the recovery when total sales were $668,966,377 (this represents a -14 per cent decline). We expect these figures to move back into the black in 2010.

THE AUCTION v PRIVATE TREATY DEBATE IN MOSMAN

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This is amazing data and before we move further, I must advise that every suburb reports different rates of success. The Eastern Suburbs have very strong auction markets and Mosman is one of the worst performing auction markets in Sydney.

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Mosman – 2007

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• Total sales – 412
• Auction – 132 (32 per cent)
• Private Treaty – 280 (68 per cent)

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Mosman – 2008

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• Total sales – 287
• Auction – 65 (23 per cent)
• Private Treaty – 222 (77 per cent)

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Mosman – 2009

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• Total sales – 303
• Auction – 62 (20 per cent)
• Private Treaty – 241 (80 per cent)

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Makes you wonder why so many Mosman agents keep recommending auction? I know that regular blogger Patricia will find these statistics of great interest.

So where to in 2010 and what will happen to Mosman house prices? I asked Steve Patrick, one of the most respected agents in Mosman what would happen and here is his response. “After a twenty (20) per cent fall in our market from the highs of 2007 to the end of 2009 (actual registered sales on several properties substantiate this figure), I believe the market bounced back somewhat in the order of five (5) to ten (10) per cent.) The last few months of 2009 confirmed this trend where house prices have now stabilised.

There is renewed confidence in the local property markets from buyers, albeit with caution, where I see our market moving steadily over the next six months with small (but more importantly), steady upward growth. Supply and demand will be the key factor going forward as it always has been. Rarely in my past twenty plus years working in Mosman, have I seen an over -supply, even when the GFC was at its historic peak.”

So there you have it! The Mosman online real estate bible has spoken. This weekend marks our first 2010 experience of buyer reaction/response at our upcoming open houses.

We trust that the data contained within this edition of Virtual Realty News will greatly assist you with your market determination. Rest assured, you will read it first with only one Mosman Agency!

See you on our blog where the Mosman debate continues.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Balmoral real estate, Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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5.02.10Robert Simeon14 Comments »