Archive for 2010

Merry Christmas!

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To all of our wonderful subscribers,
Wishing you a safe and prosperous festive season!



Our office will be closed from December 24th until January 4th, but if you need to contact us, here are our details (please send a text as well as some of us will be overseas).

Stephen Patrick: 0413 834 848 stephen@rwm.com.au
Robert Simeon: 0411 856 969 robert@rwm.com.au
Richard Simeon: 0411 499 906 richard@rwm.com.au
Mark Manners: 0403 032 700 mark@rwm.com.au
Andrew Blaxland: 0416 060 126 andrew@rwm.com.au
Taylor Law: 0423 506 055 taylor@rwm.com.au
Anna Leadbetter: 0450 217 587 anna@rwm.com.au
Gillian Fredericks: 0411 440 805 gillian@rwm.com.au
Eleanor Smith: 0438 295 488 eleanor@rwm.com.au

Cheers,
Steve


Mind your business – build infrastructure and communicate in 2011

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We keep hearing when the “going gets tough the tough get going” so you could be excused from thinking anytime soon that our luck has changed (for the better). A stark reality of the global financial crisis (GFC) has been the over reliant business concept where the hope factor remained the dominant strategy moving forward – trying hard and out of luck. No better example than that of our politicians where today, their decision making process is directed by polls as against policies.

The GFC was actually a great measure for businesses and governments although they responded in totally opposite directions. Businesses paid down debt and governments amassed debt which should not come as a great surprise as one is personal debt over other people’s debt. As a result of the GFC two words spring to mind: communication and infrastructure which is what I believe will be the key business strategies moving forward and succeeding in 2011 and beyond.

In that perfect world put simply: if we have every intended purchaser and vendor on our database (communication and infrastructure) we would be one of the most successful businesses on the entire planet – today we (most) strive in business to deliver the perfect consumer model. Just another part of life’s ongoing business challenges – so many businesses ignore and fight online which is now our future. No point fighting it – work it, use it and more importantly dominate it as it reciprocates one hundred fold (plus).

AMPERSANTA

BUY PRINT

Our thanks to Tim Mooney for again spoiling us in 2010 with his amazing aerial captures which are simply breathtaking and most often mind boggling. Many subscribers contacted Tim throughout the year requesting aerial shots of their respective homes – they make for sensational Christmas cards.

Another fascinating year in Australian politics – a federal election, hung parliament, cross deals, resignations, scandals and the sacking of the Prime Minister. We pretty well had it all and more. Next March NSW is off to the polls as Fort Crumble limps to its final days make that 19: NSW Labor resignations which is unprecedented in Australian political history. A Christmas wish as Premier ‘Bambi ‘Keneally begs for a second chance despite revelations this week that $350 million wasted on Metro, audit reveals then insisting that when she dumped the Metro  the money had not been wasted. Oh dear!

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Congratulations to our very own Steve Patrick and Jacqui Rowland – Smith who posted Mosman’s top sale for 2010 with the sale of Morella Road also the twelfth highest sale in Sydney for 2010. Steve also posted Mosman’s second highest sale when he sold a home in Stanley Avenue Balmoral last month – Mosman recorded four sales in Sydney’s Top 20 sales for 2010. Of interest is that sixteen (16) houses that Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) sold in 2010 set new street records – an amazing feat in a difficult market. RWM have posted Mosman’s highest recorded house sales in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

This week we set an Australian record when we posted $1 billion in subscriber sales to our online business which now sits at $1,001,770,228. Our first subscriber sale was recorded in October 2000 when we sold an apartment for $270,000 – our real estate online model is considered an Australia leader within our industry. Nobody really knew what we were trying to achieve when we rolled it out ten years ago – today it is recognised as a leading example for our industry.

MOSMAN HOUSE SALES – 2008, 2009 & 2010 A COMPARITIVE ANALYSES

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  • 2008 – Total Value Sold $774,865,612
  • 2009 – Total Value Sold $668,966,377
  • 2010 – Total Value Sold $692,658,555*
  • *Still being compiled

  • 2008 – Total Number Sold – 360
  • 2009 – Total Number Sold – 334
  • 2010 – Total Number Sold – 320*
  • *Still being compiled

  • 2008 – Median Price $2,275,000
  • 2009 – Median Price $2,000,000
  • 2010 – Median Price $2,100,000*
  • *Still being compiled

  • 2008 – Average Price $2,738,041
  • 2009 – Average Price $2,397,728
  • 2010 – Average Price $2,500,572*
  • *Still being complied

    Source: Australian Property Monitors

    What to watch closely in 2011?

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    Many thanks to the team at Macquarie Research for sharing their graphs with us in 2010

    This is your final edition of Virtual Realty News for 2010 and we would like to thank you for your support in 2010. Next year will be our eleventh year of publishing Virtual Realty News and we have plenty in store for you in 2011. With each edition in 2011 we will also be launching a weekly video where we tackle what is happening with our property markets – sure to be controversial (if I get my way.) I will be endeavouring to interview as many interesting people as we can. This will be brought to you by Visual Domain our video partner with Virtual Realty Videos.

    Thanks to Ryan and Peter at Agentpoint our online web developers whom I drive absolutely mad with my online impulsive disorders where we constantly dare to be different. You guys are without a doubt the best in the business and an absolute pleasure to work with.

    Whilst on videos here is our Christmas video for all of our subscribers (I suggested in last week’s edition that one of our staff was at a recording studio) – it is 100 per cent his voice. So turn your volume – up and click on full screen. Our Christmas video has already been nominated for best real estate Christmas video for 2010.
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    As you can see we work with a fantastic team (I think that shows) you would have observed that our family is growing. On behalf of Steve, Rich and everyone else at RWM we want to say to each and every one of you – thank you very much!

    Have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year – see you again in 2011 for much, much more.

    Merry-Christmas

    Cheers (and stop calling me Baz Lurman) ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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The lights are on – and politicians still not home!

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A warning for Gillard and Labor that the main reason for the shock loss in last weekend’s Victorian election was overwhelmingly the cost of living which then transformed to the cost of politics when  you do nothing – sound familiar? It happens in businesses everywhere although for some strange reason politicians thought that they were on a protected species list. True in the sense that more than a few have now become extinct Labor facing disaster in three states as support for Tasmania government collapses. Less than one hundred days until NSW heads to the voting booths and Fort Crumble is already resigned to the fact that they too will follow Labor Victoria. When Queensland goes to the polls in 2012 Labor has been in power for 21 out of the last 23 years and they too  look a very strong possibility of being deposed as their satisfaction levels continue to plummet. It was not that long ago that Labor held office federally and in every state and territory across Australia.

Will 2011 be another year of the political back – flip? Gillard goes for it, declaring 2011 her year of action promising to implement health reforms, roll out the broadband network, reach a decision on climate change, and lure more people into the workforce. Health reform is now looking terminally ill and on life support given Western Australia, Victoria and the soon – to – be elected Liberal NSW government declaring that they won’t support it. Broadband will go ahead – although there remain strong concerns that it is still to be properly costed and highly unlikely that it will hit the break even cost target of 8,000,000 Australian subscribers. Climate change will be interesting given ALP, Greens split on carbon which will seriously threaten September’s power alliance. The government’s target is a cut of 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020 and the Greens want carbon cuts of 25 – 40 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020 – good luck. As for getting more people into the workforce even better luck. Rumours remain rife Chris Bowen rejects Mark Latham column on NSW Right ‘plot’ to dumb Julia Gillard we all know that back – flips can quickly shorten political careers.

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BUY PRINT

Industry wants fast moves from Baillieu and no surprises to see what they want actioned: infrastructure, stamp duty and planning. Mirror that for  NSW and Queensland. This was echoed by Wayne Swan “what people want the Government to be doing is to be focusing very much on their living standards and the opportunities for their families into the future.” NSW and Victoria just completed expensive desalination plants and the NBN could also end up on the useless pieces of infrastructure list as Labor downplays critical NBN report.

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Paul Keating warns Labor has forgotten lessons of ‘recession we had to have’ – low inflation and wages restraint – could be lost given that inflation genie is starting to grow. No better example than Under pressure: RBA casts doubt over federal finance “In an extraordinary brave testimony to the House of Representatives’ Economics Committee last Friday, Australia’s most respected and independent economist, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Glenn Stevens, has cast doubt over the Gillard Government’s economic credentials.” If you have not read this – I suggest you do – in summary:

  • There is no place for a National Broadband Network (NBN) in his summary of national infrastructure priorities;
  • If taxpayers are to be forced to underwrite 100 per cent of the $27 billion of equity risk capital associated with the NBN, then “of course, a proper cost – benefit analysis” should be carried out before committing to such an extraordinarily large investment;
  • Had the Rudd/Gillard Government’s fiscal stimulus, which was the third highest in the OECD, been substantially smaller the RBA would have cut interest rates and lifted them back to normal levels more slowly. As a consequence, businesses and household would likely be paying lower interest rates today while taxpayers would have substantially less government debt to service;
  • The RBA’s liaison with industry has revealed mounting concerns about the effects of the new labour market rigidities introduced by the Rudd – Gillard Government’s workplace relations laws, which risk stimulating inflation pressures and thus higher interest rates;
  • As Joe Hockey has argued, there are “huge moral hazards” in Australia’s financial systems that need to be addressed, and which have been created by the unprecedented application of taxpayer guarantees;
  • Banks are not like normal private sector businesses, and even smaller banks are likely going to be ‘too big to fail’;
  • The circa $1 trillion worth of taxpayer guarantees have created a ‘contingent liability’ that exposes taxpayers to risk, despite the asinine arguments by banking lobbyists to the contrary;
  • As leading economists like Christopher Joye have posited, the RBA has evolved the way it sets monetary policy and become increasingly forward – looking in its approach.

OUCH! The NBN will make the brand new desalination plants in NSW and Victoria look like a stroke of genius by simple comparison. The NBN, health reform and climate change were all Kevin Rudd’s reforms and he was sacked because federal Labor believed he had “lost his way” – go figure?

Just not sure which part we all missed in that political rhetoric spin? Weak data puts negative growth on the agenda with our September quarter recording just 0.2 per cent growth. Wayne Swan activated his usual robotic rhetoric response “in a sea of global uncertainty the Australian economy remains resilient.” “Australia has lost its mantle as a world – beating economy after a sharp drop in economic growth returned us to the middle of the international pack, cast doubt on the Reserve Bank’s decision to lift interest rates, and raised questions about our reluctance to spend as economy moves into slow lane given consumers save as economy stumbles.

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All year I have raised concerns that our residential building industry remains on a sharp decline due mainly to our builders spending too much time playing in the sand pits created by the Building Education Revolution. With interest I read this week a report compiled by Macquarie Research.

  • Residential building approvals rose by 9.3% MoM in October. While obviously a positive outcome, it was underpinned by the volatile medium – density component, which is likely to reverse next month. And of course, it does not reflect the impact of the November interest rate rise.
  • At the same time, non – residential building approvals continue to weaken. They fell a further 3.8% MoM in October. And as builders steadily work through the pipeline of education projects, it seems inevitable that non – residential building activity will fall sharply in 2011.
  • Now, in recent years, we have seen how a lack of government investment in infrastructure resulted in bottlenecks and large price rises for utilities. But the same logic should apply to private investment as well. Thus we should expect to see large rental price increases in some of these sectors down the track, as supply fails to keep pace with demand. Of course, that too will be inflationary. This reflects another cost of the RBA’s current policy of squeezing the domestic economy to make room for the mining investment boom.

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Swan plans to create a ‘fifth bank’ which staggers believe given previously he merged the previous fifth and sixth banks.

I can see it now Bank Rupt!

Next week will be our final edition for 2010 where we will review the year that was and the year that lies ahead. Also, a Tim Mooney Christmas edition photo and….. (drum roll)…. our RWM Christmas video which is currently being edited. I will leave a clue: we sent one staff member to a recording studio to sing a Christmas carol and let me add that he is in fine voice!

Many thanks to the brilliant team at Visual Domain who shot and produced the video – we won’t be giving up our day jobs either as you will see next week.

Until then – cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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Huffing and puffing won’t blow your house away!

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However, (for some) there will be strong consequences along the way – which is always the case when governments artificially inseminate markets in an attempt to prop them up in uncertain financial times. One only has to look closely at the cash rate movements at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to see the storm clouds on the horizon after the RBA slashed the cash rate to 3.00 per cent in April 2009. And bear in mind that it was 7.25 per cent in March 2008. At or about the same time, Governments at both state and federal levels were promoting the First Home Buyers Grant (FHBG). First time purchasers locked in a fixed rate as shelter from the ongoing rental increases under cover of Stamp Duty inducements in the form of grants. One does not need to be Einstein to calculate that the cash rate will be significantly higher when the fixed loan agreement expires. Yet for some strange reason, the banks are blamed.

The “Big Four” banks have recently announced the removal of the much despised exit fees so now customers have freedom of choice to shop around. Maybe Fort Fumble’s treasurer Wayne Swan would like to explain why he approved Westpac’s acquisition of St George Bank and the CBA’s acquisition of Bank West? Instead we read Treasurer Wayne Swan flags change to four – pillars policy “the government is determined to see a new pillar in the banking system, particularly based on our mutual sector.”

If St George and Bank West were still individual entities they would be pillars five and six and the building societies and credit unions would fill positions seven, eight, nine, ten etc. Instead we see Independents back Greens’ bank bill which is nothing more than a misguided attempt to overhaul banks. The bill follows weeks of debate over the size of bank chiefs’ pay packets, interest rate hikes, high fees and the power of the big four banks. Here we go again, with more political posturing and a memory vacuum, when we consider that these very same bank chiefs positioned their respective pillars to be world’s best, during the global financial crisis. Unlike other countries, Fort Fumble was not required to bail them out and ironically today, they are bailing out on them!

The double exit strategy – excuse me for laughing as I have just read The best price signaller in the land by Peter Costello.

clean-wave

BUY PRINT

One thing for sure with property prices, is that there will always be waves of hysteria coupled with those who like to make waves. If you can’t ride it stay on the sand – Virtual Realty News

“Now that both sides of politics have decided to crack down on the evil practice of price signalling we might as well ask who does it and why. Because some people may not be aware that the biggest price signaller is not the Commonwealth Bank or Westpac or any of the other “evil” commercial banks. The biggest price signaller in the interest rate market is the Reserve Bank, the one the government owns.” Said Peter Costello. Of course the banks need more consistency given banks slower to lift deposit than interest rates where the more money they hold as deposits, the greater the control they have over the costs of funding. Hardly an instrument to entice depositors!

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Rising wages ‘outpace growth’ the warning comes as new figures show wages are increasing at their quickest rate in two years. Business groups highlighted the potential for the $43 billion National Broadband Network to “exacerbate skill shortages and drive up wages”. Personally, I am yet to meet a supporter of this broadband ‘white elephant’. I’m definitely not a supporter and believe the money could be much better spent on hospitals, rail and roads. When I look at our Google Analytics for our website which includes Virtual Realty News it reveals the Connection Speeds – 39.97 per cent use DSL, 26.16 per cent are on Cable, 24.5 per cent are Unknown, 5.92 per cent use T1 and 1.72 per cent are on Dialup (once upon a time we were all on Dialup). For the NBN project to provide a return on capital, Fort Fumble requires over 8,000,000 million Australian to sign up. Talk about ‘the impossible dream’!

Here is why Australia can ill afford another “white elephant” as Kevin Rudd shared the blame for Labor’s errors. Addressing a business function earlier this week Mine boom biggest shock, says Treasury Ken Henry. Dr Henry said the current mining boom was between three and four times bigger than the last big boom in the 1970’s, which pushed inflation up to 17.5 per cent. Inflation is currently running at 2.80 per cent. Reserve Bank of Australia says the boom to run for 20 years as the tally of resource projects with mining firms’ commitments, soars to $133bn. At your service, our economy’s a work in progress by Ross Gittins from the Sydney Morning Herald “The structure of our economy is set to change over the 2010s, creating winners and losers and plenty of complaints. So it’s worth remembering the economy’s structure has been changing continuously since the gold rush”. Which brings us to The boom is back, and this time we may avoid the bust or will we? If we do survive we are going to need plenty of help from those banking “four pillars”.

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Treasury’s move from mining to real estate during the week, was more a case of undermining the Department of Bricks and Mortar – Treasury sounds the alarm on ‘property bubble. Treasury has privately sought reassurance from its analysts that prices are not artificially high and that Australia does not face the kind of house price collapse that has hit Britain and the USA. Maybe they should read RBA intervened to avert housing slump given Aust mortgage market seen stable in third quarter. Total construction work done in Australia, fell 2.1 per cent in the September quarter. Our population is growing and building is declining!

So let’s see what is happening to Mosman prices for houses and units.

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Source: Australian Property Monitors

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Source: Australian Property Monitors

The Dyson Austen Top Ten Prestige Residential Survey 2010 Q3 July – September prepared for the Real Estate Institute of NSW, will be released this weekend – so here is a sneak preview for our Virtual Realty News subscribers. We thank Simon Feilich from Dyson Austen for the early scoop (being a subscriber has advantages).

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The total value of the survey has increased forty two (42) per cent from the previous quarter thanks to the record breaking $52 million sale at 100 Wolseley Road Point Piper. The Eastern Suburbs dominate the results, recording ninety per cent of the recorded sales – a phenomenal effort. The graph that I always look forward to viewing is the highest value and total value of Top Ten transactions per quarter from 2004 to 2010 to see how our markets are aiming up. “Quarter 3 2010 recorded the fourth highest quarter on record – the main driver in this quarter is the almost ten (10) per cent increase in the equity market in July 2010” said Simon Feilich. All in all a very strong message for our top-end property markets.

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So for those who are huffing and puffing about property prices, don’t forget that in every back garden you will always find swings and roundabouts.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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Beware when politicians suggest that things are looking up!

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What we are seeing today is that a statement such as this,  generally refers to the cost of living which shows no signs of abating anytime soon. Solid economic growth still likely, index shows which is somewhat contradictory, because while  Australia can expect a solid growth rate in the first half of 2011,the annualised Westpac – Melbourne Institute growth rate is  already being revised down. With the leading index coming in at 4.6 per cent in September and remaining above the long term trend of 3.1 per cent, it should also be noted that it is well down from the 10.3 per cent index recorded in March this year.

Julia Gillard’s  Fort Fumble urgently needs an economic architect given Canberra’s delusion: the budget is the economy which now has our elected federal Government at scary cross roads – OECD takes aim at Labor policies. “Australia’s proposed mining tax is too low; the goods and services tax should be higher and extended to food, and the approach to the national broadband network conflicts with international studies.”  In a hung parliament, the words ‘looking – up’ should be  removed from political rhetoric  along with the hopeless policies that shadow the Gillard/Swan shaky leadership foundations. The problematic elephant (aside from the NBN) that constantly circles the ALP ring  of confidence is the time to clear the decks of the Rudd mistakes. This  is not likely anytime soon, as the polls are recording a revolt of disappointment which is hardly a policy affirmation for economic reforms. More voter angst!

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BUY PRINT

A stunning revelation when RBA expected higher rate rises by banks based on strengthening economic activity and rising inflation which makes for interesting times and it is more than likely, that the annualised Westpac – Melbourne Institute growth rate will continue its decline. Nobody would have been surprised to read that banks’ fattened margins exposed when figures released by the Prudential Regulation Authority revealed that the banks’ average cost of funding  loans, escalated by less than the RBA cash rate in the year to June. The figures revealed that the Reserve cash rate climbed 1.36 percentage points between June quarters 2009 and 2010. The average rate by the big banks to secure funding, climbed 0.88 points. Given the banks are well ahead of the official RBA cash rate it is highly unlikely that the RBA will raise the cash rate at its next meeting  in December (the next scheduled meeting is not until February 2011). Just as interesting Reserve Bank data unfairly abused in rates debate and a strange sequence of events as banks slower to lift deposit than interest rates which would not surprise anyone.

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A great read Re – regulating the banks in public view by Dr. John Hewson “While legislation to give/increase the powers of the ACCC  in relation to “price signalling” etc and bans on mortgage exit fees etc are likely to be helpful, they are, in reality, unlikely to make much substantive or sustainable difference. Look at the way other “oligopolists” such as Woolworths and Coles consistently snub their noses at the ACCC, as do the oil companies. Of course, substantial penalties and making “cartel behaviour” a criminal offence, with the risk of jail for the senior executives involved, as in some countries in the airline industry, may give such processes real teeth, but none of our political leaders have yet been prepared to go that far.”  I always enjoy reading the blog comments “Margaret Thatcher’s often repeated line, “there is no such thing as a society. Just individuals and families.” Treasurer Wayne Swan is due to release Fort Fumble’s response to the “Bank Debate” next month probably sometime between Christmas and New Year.

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Probably, it will  coincide with Australia’s broadband release as Conroy defies pressure to release NBN report which (conveniently) just so happens to occur after Parliament has risen for the summer break. In a perfect Parliament, politicians who approve taxpayer funded policy initiatives that turn out to be costly “white elephants”, should immediately resign – as is generally the case in big business.  Rest easy as Prime Minister Julia Gillard vows to put fine tooth coomb through NBN on behalf of Fort Fumble, which is getting very interesting given bid to gag minister in Senate.

For example: NSW could have been $4.6b ahead if the state government (Fort Crumble) had borrowed to fund the building of all tollways built in the city. The NSW state election is due in March 2011 – Keneally welcomes Labor exodus which is actually more like a mass evacuation.  Unfortunately premier “Bambi” has resisted the lead of her fellow politicians.

Things are looking up: rents to rise as home building lags as economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel predicts renters (one third of our market) will have to get used to annual increases of between 5 to 7 per cent in Perth, Brisbane and Sydney and 3 to 5 per cent in Melbourne, Hobart and Adelaide over the next 24 to 36 months. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) identifies that building approvals fell to a 15 month low in September. Throw in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane which are in the top 10 most expensive markets in the world and you can draw two conclusions. Tax receipts from small businesses to Fort Fumble will continue to decline and the budget deficit will continue to grow as Sydney No. 2 in prime rents.

Yes, the cost of living is certainly looking up!

“There is no such thing as a society. Just individuals and families – Margaret Thatcher”

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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Four new P’s – polls, populism, performance and of course, profits!

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Actually not that different with the three P’s that pertain to property – position, position and position. Throw in politicians and bankers and what we have is the 2010 equivalent of economic soup that is murky and far from palatable. During the global financial crisis (GFC) Westpac and the Commonwealth banks wrote approximately eighty (80) per cent of all mortgages which explains why today, collectively, they own the largest mortgage books. Alan Kohler wrote on The Drum that banks only have themselves to blame which has caused a stir given many consumers are losing faith in our pillars of society. Of course, there has been plenty of gratuitous PR advice for our friends in banking although the politics of banking was intelligently addressed when Janet Albrechtsen wrote in The AustralianLet’s hear the positive story from the banks.

Plenty of rhetoric this week as home owners angered by increases in interest rates then news broke that the Big Four banks to dump exit fees as backlash grows against lenders. Then late this week ANZ raises rates, scraps exit fees at or about the same time as ASIC bans banks from double – dip mortgage exit fees which means banks that charge customers to establish a mortgage, will no longer be able to apply contentious exit fees. Too early to say who will get the last laugh with this announcement – possibly bank establishment fees will rise? Certainly the four new P’s won’t change.

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BUY PRINT

Is the landscape at Circular Quay about to change? Special deal on city skyscraper as a giant residential tower, double the size of any other building in Circular Quay, is expected to be approved soon. The site Gold Fields House is set to become a luxury apartment block that will tower 191 m above Circular Quay making it Sydney’s eighth tallest building. Sydney has only one of the top 10 tallest buildings in Australia – which prompts the discussion for progress of our capital city.

Australian Property Monitors released its House Price Report for September 2010 and here are the key findings:

  • National median house prices remain effectively unchanged at +0.1 per cent for the quarter with annual house price growth slowing to +11.5%
  • Most capital cities experienced falls in prices over the quarter; however the major markets of Melbourne and Sydney bucked the trend recording positive quarterly house price growth
  • National price units (excluding Tasmania) have fallen slightly, down -0.4% for the quarter, with annual growth falling sharply to +6.5%
  • Unit prices have fallen in all cities except Melbourne, with Brisbane experiencing the largest price decline, falling -2.8% for the quarter

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Source: Australian Property Monitors

SYDNEY

  • House prices increased slightly by +0.7% in the September quarter, which is the third consecutive quarter of slowing growth.
  • Unit prices have started falling for the first time since 2008, recording -0.1% for the quarter.
  • Sydney’s median house price is now $634,346 and the median unit price has fallen slightly to $436,714.
  • Annual house price growth sits at +11.3% and unit price growth is at +7.3%, both trending downwards.

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Weak demand made for rate surprise all things considered the clearance rates are positive, although the most important conclusion would be that prices are flat lining. It is only natural that auction clearance rates fall on rate rise and we are seeing anecdotal sales evidence. One interesting observation in Mosman at present, is that private treaty sales are producing the highest volume.

Here is the comparative analysis for Mosman houses:

Mosman Houses 2009 – 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2009

  • Total sold – 322
  • Private Treaty – 281
  • Public Auction – 41
  • Total Value Sold – $815,649,751
  • Median price – $2,094,000
  • Average price – $2,564,936
  • Highest price – $13,200,000 (RWM)

Mosman Houses 2010 – 1 January 2010 to 10 November 2010

  • Total sold – 292
  • Private Treaty – 219
  • Public Auction – 73
  • Total Value Sold – $639,048,555
  • Median price – $2,100,000
  • Average price – $2,468,570
  • Highest price – $12,600,000 (RWM)

It should be noted that with the 2010 house sales, that the vast majority of sale prices are yet to be recorded, so we expect this year’s total value for houses sold, to be considerably higher $750,000,000 approximately. For example, this week, RWM recorded the second highest house sale for Mosman in 2010 which is yet to be recorded. Here is the Macquarie Research Economics Forecast where it should be noted that the banks have already moved the cash rate to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Macquarie Research Forecast for Quarter 1 – 2011. So what we now have is an official cash rate and a real cash rate, which I will call the “real, official cash rate” – ROCR!

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So to the four new P’s – polls, populism, performance and of course profits which continue to stymie our Forts Fumble and Crumble. The politician who should have been Premier of NSW, Blacktown MP Paul Gibson ‘Fed up’ NSW Labor MP quits so now thirteen (13) Labor MP’s have announced their retirement in the past two months. Paul Gibson “we’ve moved from platform and policy and pursued a poll driven agenda.” Fort Crumble is shambolic and an embarrassment where Transport Minister John Robertson has already called his transport removalists to grab the now vacated seat. Thirteen, with more to come as powerbroker Joe Tripodi quits. Premier Kristina “Bambi” Keneally has (unofficially now) been placed on the endangered species list due to a lack of interest – polls, populism, performance and no profit.

A perfect dismount from the strangest election ever – You can say that again! The four new P’s continue to dominate as Julia Gillard losing ground to Tony Abbott, News poll shows given the continuance of Labor’s policy woes pile up. No doubt we will be hearing and reading plenty more about this in the months to come. Fort Crumble continues to disintegrate – polls and populism shape public perceptions. Fort Fumble relies on the hope factor – Swan’s numbers looking rubbery when more ‘courage’ needed in spending cuts, says Access Economics. Polls, populism, performance and of course profits continue to threaten the capability of Fort Fumble.

Back in 2000, Virtual Realty News subscriber sales sat at zero when we launched our online platform. Today, they sit at $998,770,220 so we are now $1,229,780 from breaking the $1,000,000,000 mark.

Unfortunately, this week’s $10.000 million plus Balmoral sale did not qualify – another big week of local sales which suggests a strong run of property transactions through to Christmas.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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The Big Gang Theory – is now facing withdrawal symptoms!

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Ask any business owner what the key to business longevity is and nine times out of ten the answer will always be – customer service. It all started just before the running of the 150th Melbourne Cup when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy decision.  The punters were shocked with this rate rise shock – the fourth increase in 2010. The cash rate increase was later to be described as the RBA makes pre-emptive strike, economists say. Then as quick as Americain down the Flemington track the Commonwealth Bank adds 45bp to home loan rate effective from today, citing “overall wholesale funding costs continue to increase as cheaper funding expires and is replaced with more expensive funding”. The banking stewards (otherwise known as politicians) were quick to saddle – up although opposition Treasurer Joe Hockey was already in a somewhat awkward and lonely canter.

A graph that has figured prominently in Virtual Realty News is the Household Estimates of 2007 – 08 which is the last Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) measure of Australian households that rent, own with a mortgage and own without a mortgage – which I call The Big Third Theory.

  • The number that rent – 2,399,900 which equates to thirty (30) per cent.
  • The number that own with a mortgage – 2,835,200 which equates to thirty six (36) per cent.
  • The number that own without a mortgage – 2,679,200 which equates to thirty four (34) per cent.

Based on this anecdotal data where with each and every cash rate increase the impact affects sixty six (66) per cent or 5,079,100 Australian households. Politicians need to cease being statues.

sculptures

BUY PRINT

Another Tim Mooney brilliant capture that would make a great front cover for Eastern Suburbs real estate agents’ Christmas cards – nothing beats a sensational aerial shot.

Credit card debt more common than mortgage debt and we all know that the Big Gang Theory of increased funding does not apply when they are already charging consumers around twenty (20) per cent. When the Melbourne Institute revealed their June quarter 2010 results they announced that for the first time since November 2006, credit card debt is the most common form of debt among Australian households, rather than mortgage debt. The number of households with credit card debt was 36.6 per cent, while 33.9 per cent had mortgage debt. Credit card rates should be at the very same rate as home mortgage rates.

Customer service is all about meaning business not being a mean business – The Big Gang Theory.

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Joe Hockey has good idea, no – one takes notice given banks showing no rates restraint, despite massive profits so out came Joe Hockey’s Nine – Point Plan when he addressed the AIG Annual National Forum in Canberra on October 25 in Canberra – “It’s time to talk banking.” Banks, rates and regulations: who’s in charge here? As Westpac chief Gail Kelly calls for calm as anger builds over bank rate rises given the banks are wary of Hockey bandwagon. The irony being that just only last week it was Hockey who was copping the bashing when he suggested that he’d re – regulate interest rates. As Dennis Shanahan wrote in The AustralianIt’s Hockey’s turn to bash Swan. “In just a few moments yesterday, Joe Hockey and the Coalition went from being buffoons to heroes. And Wayne Swan went from being economically and politically superior to being populist, ineffective and trailing the opposition Treasury spokesman on banking policy.” Out from the gates then jumped Wayne Swan flags banking reforms declaring the federal government would now announce banking reforms next month prompting Hockey “The Jockey” to demand release reform plan now – the “Big Fella” was now on a roll dining out on roasted swan.

There was still plenty happening within Fort Fumble’s home economics kitchen when Phillip Coorey from the Sydney Morning Herald revealed – Out in the cold: Rudd held fake budget meetings to stop leaks not to be confused with steamed leeks. “Kevin Rudd and his senior ministers were so suspicious of Lindsay Tanner that they used to hold fake pre – budget meetings to ensure their plans did not leak. According to accounts of meetings of the now abandoned Strategic Priorities and Budget Committee, nicknamed the gang of four, some meetings with Mr Tanner would deliberately be light on detail. After the meeting concluded and the then finance minister had left, the other three members of the committee – Mr Rudd, Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan – would reconvene and discuss their budget plans in detail.”

Lindsay Tanner is writing a book and I can’t wait to read that given the revelations say very little for Kevin Rudd’s schoolyard games amid financial crisis. I can’t ever remember reading a more damaging report about an elected Australian government’s economic credibility. I must admit that I have always been a Lindsay Tanner admirer – he was smart, to the point and definitely not a populist policy proponent.  Kevin Rudd denies holding fake budget meetings … why am I not the least surprised.

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In the meantime, Australia is bathing in a budget surplus (not) as Labor racks up $25.2 billion deficit in just three months shadow minister for finance and debt reduction Andrew Robb reported. The latest government financial statement reveals a staggering budget deficit of $25.2 billion for the first three months of the financial year. “The government is banking on improvements in revenue to bring the budget back to surplus, yet this statement shows no signs of the level of improvement that will be required and therefore spending must be cut.” CommSec chief economist Craig James estimates that the underlying budget deficit in the year to September was a record $63.3 billion. “The main concern is that revenues are still tending sideways rather than showing signs of repair. Meanwhile, government spending is at record highs and showing no signs of stabilising.”

Without a doubt one of the smartest economic reports that I have read is Economic reform will curb pressure on rates which lays much of the blame for increased interest rates on inept government policies. “But while rate rises are a blunt instrument, they are just about the only way the RBA can suppress demand. With a rising dollar, which will depress exports other than minerals and energy production, it is an automatic stabiliser that will slow the economy. A far better solution would be for government to have invested in infrastructure – railways and ports – to increase the efficiency of exports and to have improved productivity in southeast Australia, which is not benefiting directly from the boom. But the Howard government spent the taxes raised by energy exports on its watch on welfare payments and Kevin Rudd threw money at unproductive job programs, as Julia Gillard is still doing.”

“In the current circumstances, the price of stalling economic reform will be more painful than interest rate rises”. Hence, building approvals slide more than expected in September with a 6.6 per cent fall – in the year to September building approvals were down 11.6 per cent.

So figures confirm building weak which is understandable given the Gillard government still has more than $6 billion to be spent with her Building Education Revolution. Don’t blame the Big Gang Theory entirely as we all know they suffer on compassionate grounds. The answer should not be directed to angry customers should switch banks: Gillard rather economic reform, and we all know what happened to the Henry Tax Review.

No wonder Australians want an election – now given both forms of government continue to ignore economic reform. It is becoming increasingly obvious that economics is not a strong point for either party of choice – hence the ongoing and growing budget deficit.

When it comes to Nation Building – Fort Fumble (Gillard) has lost the plot!

Subscriber sales jumped to $986,510,220 so we are closing in on the magic $1 billion in subscriber sales.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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Not just the horses are off and racing!

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Next week the nation stops for the running of the Melbourne Cup, so out comes the form guide. Nothing unusual one might say, as it is well documented that Aussies would have a bet on two flies climbing up a wall. I’m not sure if any punters will have a wager as to whether or not the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike up the cash rate when they gather to assess the track condition of the Australian economy. On Melbourne Cup day last year, the RBA broke tradition when it reached for the whip and increased the cash rate target by +0.25 percentage points to 3.50 per cent.  When the RBA meets on Melbourne Cup Day we don’t believe the cash rate will move from the current level of 4.50 per cent.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released some interesting data this week that identified how the GFC pushed businesses to the wall – in the two years from June 2007 – encompassing the boom and subsequent bust – more than half a million Australian businesses shut up shop. Nationwide, there was a 73.6 per cent survival in that two years, with the number of businesses falling from 2.07 million to 1.52 million. The number of small businesses (up to 20 employees) fell 24,931 nationally in the period, with more than 80 per cent of the fall occurring during the worst of the financial crisis, in 2008 – 09. It was interesting to note that the majority of failed businesses  employed between one and four people and this is the number where the vast majority of businesses open their respective doors. What you won’t read is why these businesses actually failed which makes one wonder exactly what the Minister for Small Business actually does during the week. Obviously, not very much at all which hardly comes as any great surprise.

randwick

BUY PRINT

All eyes were this week on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures which came in at 0.7 per cent for the three months to September 30 – slightly up from the June 30 figure of 0.6 per cent according to the ABS. What is clear is that inflation is being driven by rising government charges and not increased domestic demand. As Macquarie Economics Research intelligently pointed out “Indeed, business surveys point to a very subdued inflation in the retail sector, partly due to cautious consumer behaviour. This has also been complemented by Australia’s major supermarket chains, which last week reported flat to negative price growth in the food segment. The point is, if all households are facing rising electricity and gas costs, then this in itself will be a dampener on discretionary consumer spending. And this should lessen – rather than boost – the case for further monetary policy tightening.”

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Surprise, surprise, as Fort Crumble – NSW government, has moved to rein in surging electricity prices in a bid to put brakes on runaway electricity prices. Household power prices have already risen by up to 13 per cent this year and within three years, could go up by 42 per cent under power company increments approved by federal and state governments. One of my favourite graphs shows the price changes – so here it is for the year to September where I draw your attention to electricity, health and housing which just so happen to come under the jurisdiction of our elected politicians.

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For the year to March 2010

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BER projects fail to boost construction which comes as little surprise because construction in schools, bears absolutely no resemblance to housing. Chronic rental shortage a fact of life, says new study as metro areas in NSW face a permanent, chronic shortage of available rental homes. The Real Estate Institute of NSW revealed that the residential vacancy rate fell to its lowest level over the past twelve months, falling to 1.2 per cent. Bear in mind that one third rent, one third own with a mortgage and the final third own without a mortgage. The general rule of thumb a few years back, was 2.5 per cent (that was without population increases) so today it should be over 3.00 per cent. It won’t be that far off when the Sydney vacancy rate falls below 1.00 per cent and that will deliver catastrophic  results. Sydney take note – infrastructure is not a dirty word “The irony will not be lost on anyone who lives here. Because when it comes to infrastructure, Sydney is a town that nodded off for a rest on its laurels and ended up in a 30 – year coma.”

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“The nation’s biggest town is spending less on infrastructure than any other Australian capital except Darwin. Compared with major cities in Europe, Sydneysiders know they have been left behind in public transport, high – density residential planning and urban development”. Hence, the funniest story of the week harbour underwater rail option to combat gridlock which is nothing more than an election gimmick given Fort Crumble is paranoid about losing its  AAA credit rating. The last time Fort Crumble honestly embarked on genuine infrastructure was back in 1995 when it won the bid to host the Sydney Olympic Games in 2000. “NSW governments have lost their appetite for major infrastructure construction. The result for Sydney in 2020 is a sub – par rail system, gridlocked weekday traffic, a CBD that struggles to stay relevant at weekends and one of the worst rates of housing affordability in the OECD. Quite simply, Sydney is a city that has lost its ambition. Like a naturally gifted athlete who cannot be bothered to train hard, Sydney runs the risk of being left behind by hungry competitors who enjoy none of its inherent advantages.”

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Bugger! Reserve Bank earnings slump to 30 – year low – wow an Australian bank not making billions. The bank blamed the loss of earnings on a slump in foreign interest rates and the surging Australian dollar. Its annual statement, shows underlying earnings last financial year were $866 million which were that low back in 1983. So this year, Fort Fumble won’t be receiving a dividend which is bummer, as  last year it collected a respectable $6 billion windfall.

This week we released our iPad website so whether you are using your mobile phone, iPad or computer, when you type in rwm.com.au you will automatically be directed to your preferred application of use. Another real estate first, thanks to our developers Agentpoint. Infrastructure in real estate is imperative also and no other Mosman real estate agency offers its clients this unique online option of communication and information.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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Politicians out of control and policies in a big black hole!

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Another fascinating week following the recent federal election. Our new politics takes on a toxic taste, the newly elected Fort Fumble is under attack and there will be plenty of casualties. Whilst treason within Fort Fumble can never be ruled out – Paul Kelly in The Australian wrote “Welcome to the new politics once inconceivable yet now on stunning display: the discredited Kristina Keneally NSW government, the ACTU and the Greens in a united troika against the Labor government of Julia Gillard.” Whatever the outcome, this will get ugly, especially when one throws in the broadband battle: PM appeals to opposition as bills reintroduced.

Wayne Swan ‘no’ to release of mining tax figures which defies a Senate order as the deal with big miners unravelling. Was there ever a deal? These are but a few issues which will impact seriously on the Australian economy. Such as mining tax ‘unravelling budget surplus’ – Abbott although it is fast resembling a mining and banking war as Labor’s besieged on two fronts.

Will Keneally burn Gillard? I don’t think so you broke our deal, Gillard tells Keneally so this hissy fit then became the “Battle of the Birds” – (finger salutes included.) Paul Kelly wrote “there are many morals from these events; the clearest is that the NSW government is radioactive in a political sense and will contaminate anything it touches.”

In The Australian Niki Savva wrote this brilliant piece Lead on reform or lose way – “Julia Gillard has failed to take charge and shape the national debate on key issues. More than 100 days in both jobs, Julia Gillard has failed to properly define herself as Prime Minister or as Labor leader.” Then to Premier Bambi (I will have to borrow that) – “If a state Premier as damaged and weakened as NSW’s Kristina Keneally feels emboldened enough to challenge Gillard on an issue involving unions, and one central to Gillard’s claim of success as a reformer, negotiator and administrator, then the Prime Minister is in real trouble.” Don’t forget the farmers are up in arms given their “rivers no longer run free.”

SydneyJones

BUY PRINT

Building industry faces skills shortfall as the booming mining industry is now moving our skilled workers away from building infrastructure as construction industry braced for upturn. The Australian Industry Group (Ai Group)/Australian Construction Association (ACA) construction outlook survey expects the value of construction work to rise by 5.9 per cent during 2010/11 and then 7.9 per cent in 2011/12. This follows just 1.5 per cent in 2009/12 which is led by iron ore and coal; commodity export prices have soared by 52 per cent in the past year to surpass the pre–global financial crisis. Australia’s jobless rate creates wage pressures, report says given skilled workers are headed off to make their fortunes, thanks to our mining boom.

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Fast but not free is key to future crisis approach where there are similarities with the failed Fort Fumble home insulation bungle. “The coordinator general and the kitchen cabinet that made all decisions about stimulus spending got the speed they wanted: actually they got a kind of modern – day gold fever: 200 insulation installing firms mushroomed to 10,834 in less than a year and the budget for the program blew out by $400 million.” Australia appears to be digging plenty of mines without any foundations given house building activity hits 18 – month low. Australia has a labour market of just 12 million people – the mining industry is eating up the construction industry. Julia Gillard needs to immediately remove the GST from the residential construction industry and get licensed builders back building houses. Recently it was revealed that Australia has a shortage of approximately 200,000 houses and this will grow to 800,000 by 2020 which identifies glaring problems within the Australian building industry.

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Much written, read and said about the condition of Australia’s housing markets, so we found this RP Data graph an interesting insight into the state of play. Here are the Top 5 suburbs around Australia for the year to July 2010. No need to guess which suburb leads NSW for total value of sales.

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Mosman dropped to third in the apartment stakes although what is interesting, are the results for Manly and Dee Why. With just eight weeks left in the official selling season for 2010, a Melbourne Cup cash rate increase will certainly test many niche property markets (which we preview next week). Compelling viewing given Mosman stock levels for both apartments and houses are on the rise as the graph below shows.

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Always something to write about in our industry although I could not believe my eyes when I read Minister moves to mandate NBN so even if you don’t want Fort Fumble’s national broadband network you will be charged (reportedly $300) to be connected to it. Of course, this will probably blow out to $500 plus by the time the trenches are dug.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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If I was Premier of NSW – I would….

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First of all read the following transcripts which clearly identify why our presiding Government, Fort Crumble, is not only up the proverbial creek without a paddle, but in five months time, will finally be laid to rest. Never before in the rich political history of NSW, have so many elected sitting members opted to stand down (thus far) prior to an election. No new stars can shine in ALP’s black hole summed it up pretty well – “It will be fascinating to see how NSW Labor rebuilds itself after the election. One thing is certain, though, anyone lining up as a star recruit this time around needs a mental health check.”

Transcript number one: ABC News Stateline New South Wales when Quentin Dempster interviewed former Head of the Premier’s Department, Gerry Gleeson who spoke out against the NSW Government saying public confidence is gone, access and influence are being peddled through political donations and incompetence is apparent – Gleeson criticises NSW Government. Without a doubt one of the most insightful interviews pertaining to the inner workings and failures that continue to plague Fort Crumble – no prisoners taken.

Transcript number two: Gerry Gleeson addressing the Institute Of Public Administration Australia – NSW Spann Oration 2010 – If I was Premier of NSW in 2011.

In his interview with Quentin Dempster on the Epping to Parramatta railway Gerry Gleeson said “Well look I think when the Prime Minister Gillard when she announced the Epping to Parramatta railway line the audience laughed. Now there can be nothing worse for a minister or a prime minister for derision like that, because that audience had heard this so often before, and that’s what, it’s this continual changing of plans. Bob Carr had promised a railway line to the north west sector, it is the top of state priorities, yet here we have a federal, the Prime Minister of the country announcing, what after 24 hours notice to the New South Wales Government that, I’m going to build this railway line, I’m going to give you the money for this railway line.”

In his NSW Spann Oration, Mr. Gleeson said “The Yes Minister television series was close to capturing the culture of the times; a culture that is not entirely buried. The failure of Ministers to give any rational reason for the Metro to Rozelle reminds me of Sir Humphrey Appleby saying “in the great restaurant of government, civil servants are the cooks and politicians are the waiters. We prepare all the dishes and they serve them up to the customers.”

Barangaroo

BUY PRINT

Having read Mr. Gleeson’s interviews, we sent Australia’s finest aerial photographer, Tim Mooney, to capture Barangaroo given former foreshore authority head takes a shot at Keating. Of greater concern is the new management as Premier lashes lord mayor over Barangaroo.

Coincidentally, this week I received this PDF – Time To Go FINAL Another must read as the theme continues.

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Under Labor, NSW has grown slower than any other Australian state or territory. GSP is Gross State Product and since June 1995, Queensland and Western Australia have recorded GSP growth of 90 per cent and 80 per cent respectively. NSW has recorded 46 per cent growth and if NSW had managed to match Victoria’s growth of 65 per cent, our economy would now be $50 billion larger, equivalent to the turnover of BHP. That additional economic growth would have meant another $2.4 billion in state tax revenues this year.

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NSW debt has climbed from $15 billion in 2003 to a projected $55 billion by 2014. This explains why infrastructure is on hold despite a surging population growth. The reason why? A spokesperson for Infrastructure Australia revealed one of the reasons NSW missed out on Federal funding was the inadequacy of the State Labor Government’s submission. The spokesperson indicated there was a lack of detail on the benefits and costing for the State’s key projects, saying, “There’s a lack of integrated planning in the NSW submission.” So here is the funding graph for the States and Territories that could fill out a form intelligently.

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A horrific graph that would leave even Sir Humphrey Appleby lost for words. NSW is the largest contributor to GST payments. Even taking into account the incompetence of Fort Crumble, surely Fort Fumble would recognise that NSW deserves a greater apportionment of funds – Victoria won’t overtake NSW: Keneally. When you look at Infrastructure Australia’s funding allocations, Victoria is a work in progress model and NSW has completely stalled. Developers warn homes too big to build on time is another classic example where NSW has a massive crisis in housing availability. Australian Bureau of Statistics data revealed Sydney dwelling construction continues to slide with just 14,400 houses built in the year to June last year.

Aaron Gadiel, chief executive of Urban Taskforce, said that at June 2010, data showed just 13,400 of the 21,000 new Sydney houses that the state government had predicted. The Metropolitan Development Program report released by the premier, Kristina Keneally, in April said Sydney housing construction rates were “well placed to re – bound strongly” and forecast to exceed 27,000 houses by 2012. Mr Gadiel said the new data “has blown the government’s predictions out of the water”. “The government’s own experts have found that targets for an extra 25,000 homes or more,will not be achieved without major policy changes by government”.

Matthew Quinn, the managing director of Stockland, told the Urban Development Institute conference this week that Australia had a shortage of 200,000 houses that would grow to 800,000 by 2020 and 1.4 million a decade later, unless major policy changes were implemented.

loans-200x0I have never been a supporter of First Home Buyer Grants which (previously) I declared was like throwing lollies onto a highway without supervision. So, little surprise to see first – home buyers loans share shrinks to six year low as outer suburbs struggle most with mortgages. NSW has 44 per cent of the nation’s mortgage delinquencies which comes as no surprise when one looks at this article that appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald on April 27, 2009 first – homes rush creates boom suburbs in west. The boom generated by the Federal Government’s decision to dramatically increase first – home – buyer grants has been confined to Sydney’s west, NSW Government figures reveal. They show first home buyers in the inner city, lower North Shore and eastern suburbs have failed to cash in on the grants. The artificial government stimulation of the western Sydney markets will see a crash ‘n burn outcome as interest rates rise.

I suspect we had an Internet first this week, when we successfully launched a website within a website (who said it could not be done). We are now offering premium website pages for our top – end residences so please take a minute to view Glen Osmond – 23 Prince Albert Street Mosman where we have definitely raised the bar with online property presentation.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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Huffing and puffing but not blowing houses down!

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Australian property markets make compelling viewing for letterbox voyeurs given we’ve never been better despite the crisis. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) we are healthier, wealthier and wiser and Australia, during the first half of the global financial crisis, was one of only three developed countries with finances and economies remaining positive. On the flip side, housing affordability and conditions continue to deteriorate based on the Measures of Progress report released by the ABS which plots social and economic changes every ten years across Australia. In the ten years to 2009, the homes that were affordable to low income earners, fell from 15 per cent to 7 per cent.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) again defied market expectations this week when it left the cash rate at 4.5 per cent for the fifth straight month. The letterbox voyeurs of doom and gloom were quick to regroup following the RBA rates surprise when they trumpeted focus shifts to November for rate rise. The RP Data – Rismark August home value indices revealed that Sydney has been one of only two capital cities to avoid any falls in value, recording a 0.2 per cent rise in house and unit values over the quarter (the other city was Canberra). Price trends put Sydney buyers in the driving seat “The improved value proposition in Sydney’s housing market is also helping to keep more residents from departing for other states. Based on the latest data from the ABS (to March 2010), the outflow of residents from NSW has not been this low for 15 years.” No doubting that this would have something to do with the forthcoming removal of its incompetent government – Fort Crumble.

housing

BUY PRINT

I love a debate. I read rates could pop house price bubble: economist Dean Baker who tipped the US housing market collapse says Australia’s high house prices are at risk of slumping if interest rates rise further. US banks still remain on a government-induced life support and Australian banks are posting healthy profits with net interest margins back at pre GFC levels. RBA officially given a role as stabiliser for financial system where its mandate has been broadened for the first time to take into account the stability of the nation’s financial system. From the end of October, the majority of the big banks will start reporting full year profits which, for the big four banks, are expected to report a combined record profit of more than $21 billion. US property markets were decimated when subprime hit. This was brought about by the banks going into liquidation and I fail to see any such similarities – no cigar for Dean Baker. The Sydney property market can’t and won’t collapse, given the first third of households rent, the second own with a mortgage and the final third, own with no mortgage.

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Housing estimates from the ABS identify that at the last count (2007 – 2008) Australia had 7,914,300 homes, compared to US figures over the same period at 112,362,848. Hardly an intelligent summation given the stark differences – have I loved this housing debate!

As we have discussed previously in Virtual Realty News Mosman has approximately 4,900 houses where (for arguments sake) approximately 1,666 rent, 1,666 own with a mortgage and the other 1,666 own without a mortgage. Interest rate increases affect the 1,666 that have a mortgage and not the 3,222 who rent or own without a mortgage. After looking at 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 house sales in Mosman, I can confidently say that it would take a financial tsunami to see our property prices drop to the levels predicted by Dean Baker.

  • Mosman house sales in 2007 – 414
  • Mosman house sales in 2008 – 269
  • Mosman house sales in 2009 – 322
  • Mosman house sales in 2010 – 255

IMF sees risk in ‘mild overvaluation’ of Aussie house prices given it will stress–test Australia’s mortgage market. House prices in eight major cities rose by 18.4 per cent in the year to June, prompting some analysts to warn of a bubble. House building activity hits 18 – month low a direct result of builders on Fort Fumble/Princess Gillard’s playgrounds of gold. Why build with their money when they can build using Gillard’s ‘cash for tuckshop’ building contracts.

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I noted whilst reading Macquarie Economics Research The Australian Insider – Outlook for the December quarter 2010, their observations pertaining to the above graphs.

  • Stepping back from the state–based detail, it is also obvious that the housing market is in a vastly different position to that prevailing in 2006 – 07. Not only has housing finance fallen by 26% since September 2009, it is also 26 % below its average level over 2006 – 07 (a period when finance was fairly stable). This means that dwelling commencements could easily fall by over 20% over 2011.

Only the uninformed would suggest that Australia has a housing bubble, because it is very clear that we are suffering from an undersupply, not an oversupply. Our non – existent house bubble presents another excellent explanation which takes one back to very basic economics – supply V demand.

When you have a government funded Builders Revolution it’s no wonder the tools are down!

No doubt when they complete their government guaranteed building works (when they return from their respective overseas holiday jaunts) may we again see the cement being poured on construction sites.

As they say “when you’re on a good thing – stick to it” hence, the Builders Education Revolution.

For connoisseurs of outstanding Mosman waterfronts look no further than this sensational Sydney Harbour residence – click here.

Cheers ^__^

This week’s sales Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate Click Here

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