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The Emperor (Kevin Rudd) flew in this week with his economic warriors fresh from the Gala – Yours ‘n Plenty Spend To No End festivities, where our very own MasterChef of economic stardom was quick to see how production of his “Bronzed Aussie” school plaques were progressing. Almost immediately, The Emperor and his trusted Treasurer Wayne (“Sum Ting Wong”) Swan, were perplexed! This nearly resulted in the spilling of their traditional Chinese herbal tea (daily ceremony) when the Opening Statement to Senate Economics Reference Committee by Glenn Stevens was read then (later) explained to them.

First to spruik the findings of this report was Financial Services Minister Chris “Noh Nut Hing” Bowen who must have thought all of his Chinese fortune cookies (better known as Treasury forecasts) had come at once. Breathing fire, much like his favourite red silk Chinese dragon pyjamas, Noh Nut Hing declared “Glenn Stevens today gave a very good endorsement of the government’s actions so far.”

Sadly for Fort Fumble (Federal government) it was a peek –in and duck opening statement when it was revealed that very little had to do with Fort Fumble’s economic cooking techniques – the oil in the prized Fort Fumble economic wok was spitting and burning without the usual high – five spice powder. Puff, the magic economic dragon, was tempered with the consequences of economic chop suey – (lawyers on hold) much like each edition of Virtual Realty News.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

So off to the opening statement we go. Glenn Stevens “By the standards of past recessions, however, this was a mild downturn. Although the evidence is as yet incomplete, this episode has been much less serious than those in the mid 1970’s, the early 1990’s.” What, no mention of the Great Depression? Fort Fumble revealed this week that the final outcome for the 2008-09 year was a deficit of $27.1 billion – a $5 billion improvement on the fortune cookie (Treasury) predictions of $32.9 billion.

Head economic waiter of Yum Cha proceedings Wayne “Sum Ting Wong” Swan, announced from his economic kitchen “the stronger than expected final budget outcome does not substantially diminish the fiscal challenge imposed on the Australia by the global recession, which has resulted in the largest fall in budget revenues compared with its comparable budget year forecast since 1930-31.” Obviously Sum Ting Wong was acknowledging a point that the Reserve Bank governor missed?

Glenn Stevens “So I think that it is reasonable to conclude, against the benchmarks of historical and international experience, that Australia has done quite well on this occasion.”(No mention of stimulus.)

“Why was that so?” (A Cadbury chocolate moment?)

“First, our financial system was in better shape to begin with, being relatively free of serious problems the Americans, British and Europeans have encountered. “ Umm would that allude to the collapse of HIH when the then government introduced prudential authorities? Obviously a coincidence, learned consumers of fine economic dining may think!

“China will easily achieve her 8 per cent growth target this year, led by domestic demand.” No doubt The Emperor arranged for his school plaques to be made in China.

Last but not leek, “The Commonwealth budget was in surplus and there was no debt, which meant expansionary fiscal policy measures could be afforded.” Past Prime Minister John Howard was last seen doing the cha-cha on his daily morning Kirribilli walk and was observed looking at one particular signboard.

Last Saturday, 682 Sydney properties were offered to the market – eclipsing the previous record of 571 homes and apartments set back in March 2007. Many suggest that this is a direct result of the first – home buyer’s grant which was halved this week. From October 1, the First Home Buyers Boost was reduced to $10,500 for existing homes and $14,000 for new homes – both subsidies will be scaled back to $7,000 next year. What happens to property prices at the lower end is anyone’s guess although increases in interest rates must be factored in. Already there are strong suggestions that we will see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increase the cash rate in November and again in December. This is self explanatory when you look at the following graphs which provide a compelling reason as to why lower income households will definitely be vulnerable. Given it is a long weekend, here is the RBA Housing Market Developments Report (an interesting report).

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Quite amazing! We are presently experiencing record immigration growth and a major concern is that building approvals fell 0.1 per cent in August according to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures. Maybe a clue for the Henry Tax Retort (oops I meant Report). The RBA estimates that the underlying demand for new houses annually, is around 180,000 to 200,000 and we are not even close to meeting these consumer demands which explains the current housing patterns.

It is a very hard market to predict given the above data which identified national property values climbing by 2 per cent in August which is the highest monthly increase since RP Data – Rismark Home Value Indices began in January 2005.

Mosman is a much easier market to predict given that house volumes are at record lows and I’m not reading tea leaves either.

Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay was again awarded the number one sales agency in the Richardson & Wrench network last Saturday night. A fantastic team effort and special thanks to the nights major sponsor the REA Group.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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2.10.09Robert Simeon12 Comments »

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Coincidentally, Sydney this week experienced a once in a lifetime (so they say) dust – up which as it turns out was both physical and personal. One was delivered by Mother Nature and the other is the mother of all property taxes and by all reports (leaked thus far) it will take some time for the dust to settle. Since GST was introduced in 2000 on an electoral platform that taxes would come down (only to see them increased) – nine years on, Fort Fumble (Federal government) and every state and territory government is now drowning in budget deficits.

Briefly, there was a ‘red’ lining to the clouds when former US president Bill Clinton (give the man a cigar) said Kevin Rudd (The Emperor) was one of the world’s smartest leaders. Clinton said “his friend was well – read, well – informed and an expert on China.” Well Slick Willy that’s why we call him The Emperor, because just like China everything is now in the red!

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Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

My tax rules: the Ken Henry way by Peter Martin from The Sydney Morning Herald was certainly an eye opener or as Ken Henry puts it “a-once-in-a-generation game changer.” We have heard that before (twice this week too).
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NO RELIEF FOR HOMEBUYERS

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“But the Henry review has come to the conclusion that other state taxes, much complained about, aren’t actually that bad. Stamp duties on conveyancing and land transactions are changed at a time when people are already borrowing and can afford to pay them. “(Yes every Australian loves making a Stamp duty donation for nothing because in the backyard of the property they are purchasing money actually grows on trees they are purchasing.) “They don’t seem to be much slowing our relentless desire to trade up and they help claw back the untaxed profits we make from capital gains tax exemption for the family home. The review won’t recommend an end to real estate stamp duties for as long as the capital gains tax exemption remains, and even it is unlikely to have courage to recommend an end to the exemption.” You call that a once-in-a-generation game changer?

The Henry Report should be called the Titanic as there are leaks everywhere and unlike ‘leeks’, I see no green-shoots.

PAYROLL TAX TO STAY

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“Payroll tax is also widely abhorred but from the review’s standpoint is pretty harmless.” Brilliant this comes from a person who has never paid it! “Not only will it stay in defiance of the bulk of submissions on the topic but the review will recommend it be extended by withdrawing a range of exemptions. There are taxes that genuinely hurt employment, the review believes – those that discourage foreign firms from setting up shop and staying here.”

A tarot card economic review (in my opinion) where an “abhorred tax that is pretty harmless despite bulk submissions against this” for simply employing people – now what point is he missing? The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) labour figures for August identified that Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 5.8 per cent; however the economy shed 27,100 jobs which was more than expected. How many would have been saved if we did not have Payroll Tax? We will never know! But we do know that Ken Henry predicted that Australia’s unemployment would peak at 8.5 per cent.

Now I am getting confused, so allow me to elaborate. This week, Treasury Secretary Ken Henry advised the Australian Institute of Company Directors that the Australian economy would have contracted during the global financial crisis if the government (on his recommendation) had not introduced its stimulus measures. What a no brainer, when his report promotes Fort Crumble wastage disguised as a stimulus (tax payer expense) yet rejects on the other hand, individual and business stimulus that otherwise generates and absorbs unemployment.

The Henry Report is a no -no- no report where the stimulus packages only resulted in credit card debt reductions which now brings me to our banks. Well two of them anyway. Where once upon a time (you know the fairy tale) our four banking institutions Westpac, NAB, ANZ and CBA were known as the Four Pillars. Have a look at this to see how the World banking pecking order has changed from 1999 to 2009 (move your mouse at the bottom of the page on each year from 1999 to 2009 and watch the appearances and disappearances.)This is a fascinating report where Westpac and the CBA debut in 2009.

Top 20 Financial Institutions by market capitalisation, $b, 1999 – 2009

Enter Paul Keating, past prime minister. Although I never liked the man, I must admit that he is making plenty of sense. Paul Keating joins the 7.30 Report

Kerry O’Brien “Former Labor prime minister Paul Keating is concerned that as the heat starts to come out of the global financial crisis, the big four banks have corned almost the entire market for new housing loans. Before the crisis, the Commonwealth, Westpac, NAB and the ANZ had just 60 per cent of that market. But new found dominance of the big four is now starting to be reflected in their margins on housing loans.”

Paul Keating “There’s a lot of clever things to do. I mean, here we haven superannuation the third largest pool of savings in the world. $1100 billion, growing at $100 billion a year. These funds could hold Australian AA-house mortgage bonds. No trouble at all. In fact we saw all these dreadful numbers for super, people losing money, but if they had had your or my mortgage they would be getting 6 per cent solid, or 5.5 or 6 per cent.”

Paul Keating “So therefore, we have to work out how much we can have the super funds take the mortgages up. And I think one of the ways that can happen is for the central bank, the Reserve Bank, to trade in housing bonds like it trades in treasury bonds. So it makes a liquid system, a liquid market.”

Paul Keating “And that way … you saw the super funds, they lost enormously on the real estate investment trusts, average losses of 70 per cent. So in property, their portfolios in super were too narrow. If they were widened to take into account the really good mortgages of most Australians – you know, the default rate is .00001 per cent, it’s nothing.”

No doubt Mr Keating read the Bank Mergers Report “The acquisitions of St George Bank by Westpac and Bankwest by the Commonwealth Bank in 2008 increased the market share of the ‘big four’ banks, raising concerns that increasing concentration from bank mergers may be significantly reducing competition in the Australian market for financial services.”

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) survey found that in August, new home sales posted the largest monthly increase in more than three years. Sales of houses were up 11.8 per cent and apartments jumped by 7.5 per cent. It is not just property that is on the run. David Jones this week posted its highest full year profit (on record) up 6.3 per cent.

Interest rates have now bottomed which was clearly identified when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released this week their Financial Stability Review . “In summary, global financial conditions remain challenging. But, while further setbacks cannot be ruled out, the severe downside risks that loomed six months ago have significantly abated.

Interest rates set to increase and Mosman has just 66 houses advertised on Domain down by approximately 300 per cent this time last year. So if interest rates increase why increase the stimulus further? Humming to the song “I see red, I see red, I see red.”

Whilst on red – have a look at this red hot exclusive release in the Mosman market ESCARPA

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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25.09.09Robert Simeon3 Comments »

Never one to miss an opportunity we had to investigate these “need for greed” accusations pointed directly at our very own Fort Crumble (NSW government). The Fort Crumble draw-bridge is now drawing attention to corruption, and we are not talking about “water under the bridge”. Stateline NSW published “The Land Bribe” another compelling read. “Tonight, a leading Sydney barrister specialising in planning and environment laws – he advises his property developer clients with contentious project to circumvent local councils and take them straight to the Minister for Planning because they won’t receive close scrutiny.” Now it gets interesting as for some unimaginable reason (you can be the judge), Fort Crumble changed its planning legislation. The dogs are barking from within their respective property kennels.

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Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Barrister Tim Robertson told Stateline “The changes that have been made since 2005 have concentrated enormous power in the hands of one person, the Planning Minister, and it has returned the state to the position we were in about 1965. If you remember, the Premier of the day was a fellow called Askin, and we are now in the position with our planning system, that we have returned to the days of Bob Askin.” For the younger readership the late Bob Askin was referred to as a “deal or no deal” Premier. Maybe it has become contagious, as this week The Sydney Morning Herald ran this “Mamma mia, you know too much”.

The Emperor, otherwise known as Kevin Rudd, whilst basking in record high approval ratings, would be throwing chop sticks, dim sims and bok choy at his Fort Crumble counterparts. Despite the ongoing political calamities businesses are focussed on what is actually happening in our economic playground – where our report cards are most impressive. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index of economic activity is on the improve minus – 7 per cent in May, minus – 3.3 per cent in June and minus – 1.8 per cent in July. The Institute predicts a tepid recovery in the second half of 2009 and a much brighter 2010.

Interest Rates

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Unemployment

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The Emperor is perplexed and we are not talking indigestion either, as he faces an election next year. Fort Crumble is of major concern to his popular Fort Fumble, given he possibly stands to lose five seats at next year’s election. A wobbly, as the Fort Crumble electoral Yum Cha is poisoning the diners and knives instead of chop sticks have become the preferred choice of NSW diners. Forget salmonella, it’s rather a case of political poisoning, where The Emperor should be forging ahead with a double dissolution.

The Emperor is focussing his efforts as the Master Chef of economics and his recipe to recovery is not only tasty but is receiving rave reviews. When our economy is doing well – we all benefit along the economic road to recovery.

Warren Buffet announced this week “the terror of last year is gone and that’s thanks in part to the Government.” You will no doubt note he said “in part to the Government” which is exactly what happened in Australia where businesses responded energetically to the economic landscape – some much better than others. Bear in mind that when the share market starts running, the property market follows suit – success leaves clues.

Share market

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Aussie Dollar

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First home owner hangover is in retreat, as for the second month running, the percentage of first home buyers taking out new loans has fallen to 25.7 per cent of the market, down from its peak of 28.5 per cent last May. The Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) identified that “New South Wales remained the least affordable state or territory in which to own a home, with the proportion of income required to meet loan repayments at 31.1 per cent”.

NSW Treasurer Eric Roozendaal told Business Spectator. “The average mortgage in New South Wales is between $80,000 and $100,000 more than the other states. The average mortgage is around $400,000, so we felt the impact of the higher interest rates before we saw all of the cuts out of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) combined with the GFC particularly on our financial services sector.” So NSW has the highest mortgages, so why does Fort Crumble inflict the highest taxes on its constituents?

Back to The Emperor’s Nation Building “Chippie and Sparky” program, where you go to a school and demolish three class rooms then build another three. Australia has a chronic shortage of available homes, calculated to be 56,600 homes in 2009 alone – construction remains on the decline. The only problem with this analogy is that The Emperor can’t place his construction plaques on a residential house. The Emperor needs to embrace that Australians live in houses not schools! Is Nation Building better defined as modern day Electoral Gilding?

You may have noticed that our Subscriber Sales have dropped from $933,919,250 to $841,266,000 which is due to all sales being added to the total. We corrected this glitch and our subscriber sales are now at $866,059,220 – over the last ten days we have posted $30,000,000 in house and apartment sales.

The first edition of Virtual Realty News went out into the www on September 15, 2000 where from memory our email list was 37 recipients – this week we celebrated our ninth birthday.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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18.09.09Robert SimeonNo Comments »

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I love an exclusive! Hang the expense (no pun intended), as we closely examine the impact of the global financial crisis on Sydney’s top – end housing markets. Courtesy of Dyson Austen & Co Pty Ltd, a leading property valuation company, we publish its comprehensive quarterly reports from Quarter 3 – July to September 2008 to Quarter 2 – April to June 2009. These are compelling results.

This is the first time these reports have been published (in the public domain) and what an insight it offers to better understand these mysterious market machinations. Simon Feilich, director of Dyson Austen also offers his expert commentary and independent predictions relating to Sydney’s (recession proof) rich and famous. We have also engaged the master of aerial photography, Tim Mooney,to share with you, a closer insight into some of these spectacular Sydney residential homes. Another amazing statistic is that Tim Mooney photographed approximately ninety per cent of these prestige properties – a clue for real estate agents and vendors. Aerial photographs are a must!

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

The quarterly Dyson Austen prestige residential survey, prepared for the Real Estate Institute of NSW for the last 4 quarters, has been released today and Director, Simon Feilich, said “ it indicates a reduction in gross sales per quarter of almost 45% from its peak of September 2008.The decrease in real terms was approx $110 million from $198 million”.

Dyson Austen Top 10 Sydney Prestige Residential Survey 2008 Q3 July – September

In this period interest rates decreased from 7.25 per cent to 7 per cent.

Top 10

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1. 23 – 25 Coolong Road Vaucluse $45.000 million
2. 23 Victoria Street Watsons Bay $28.100 million
3. 108 Wolseley Road Point Piper $27.000 – $28.000 million
4. 4 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $22.500 million
5. 114 Wolseley Road Point Piper $20.550 million
6. 92 – 94 Prince Alfred Parade Newport $14.600 million
7. 9 Caledonian Road Rose Bay $10.800 million
8. 15 Thompson Street Tamarama $10.500 million
9. 12A & 12C Crescent Street Hunters Hill $9.200 million
10. 56 & 57/56 Pirrama Road Pyrmont $9.140 million

Total $197.890 million the highest ever recorded.

Dyson Austen Top 10 Sydney Prestige Residential Survey 2008 Q4 October – December

In this period interest rates decreased from 7 per cent to 4.25 per cent.
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Top 10

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1. 4 & 6 Burran Avenue Mosman $19.750 million
2. 37 Wunulla Road Point Piper $18.450 million
3. 9 Wentworth Place Point Piper $14.900 million
4. 2 Loch Maree Place Vaucluse $12.500 million
5. 20 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $12.500 million*
6. 22 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $12.500 million*
7. 7 Wharf Road Vaucluse $12.000 – $13.000 million*
8. 39 – 40 Ocean Road Palm Beach $12.000 million
9. 43 Wharf Road Birchgrove $11.500 million
10. (=) 4 Wolseley Crescent Point Piper $10.500 million
(=) 1 Arbutus Street Mosman $10.500 million

Total $137,100 million the sixth highest ever recorded. * Approximately

Tim Mooney Photography

.www.timmooneyphotography.com

Dyson Austen Top 10 Sydney Prestige Residential Survey 2009 Q1 January – March

In this period interest rates decreased from 4.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent.
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Top 10

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1. 5 Rose Bay Avenue Bellevue Hill $17.000 million
2. 25 Victoria Street Watsons Bay $16.000 million
3. 8A Ginahgulla Road Bellevue Hill $15.000 million
4. 6 Buena Vista Avenue Mosman $13.200 million
5. 29 New South Head Road Vaucluse $12.900 million
6. 71 Yarranabbe Road Darling Point $12.600 million
7. 22 Rosemount Avenue Woollahra $11.800 million
8. 53 Fitzwilliam Road Vaucluse $9.000 million
9. 1A Arbutus Street Mosman $8.500 million
10. 86B Victoria Road Bellevue Hill $7.900 million

Total $123.900 million the ninth highest ever recorded. * Approximately

Dyson Austen Top 10 Sydney Prestige Residential Survey 2009 Q2 April – June

In this period interest rates decreased from 3.25 per cent to 3.00 per cent.
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Top 10

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1. 40 Wentworth Road Vaucluse $18.000 million
2. 2 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $16.450 million
3. 1129 Barrenjoey Road Palm Beach $12.000 million
4. 16 Tivoli Avenue Rose Bay $10.500 million*
5. 20 Tivoli Avenue Rose Bay $10.500 million*
6. 15A Burran Avenue Mosman $10.250 million*
7. 22A Vaucluse Road Vaucluse $9.000 million*
8. 44 – 46 Lang Road Centennial Park $8.300 million
9. 12/12 Onslow Avenue Elizabeth Bay $8.000 – $8.300 million*
10. 17 Trelawaney Street Woollahra $7.850 million

Total $110.115 million the fifteenth highest ever recorded. *Approximately

Agent in order of how many of the sales over 12 months they were involved in -

LJ Hooker Double Bay 8
Ray White Double Bay 7
Ken Jacobs 5
McGrath 4
Raine & Horne Double Bay 3
Richardson & Wrench Mosman 2
Knight Frank 2
Laing & Simmons Double Bay 2
LJ Hooker Palm Beach 2
Cassim 2
Richardson & Wrench Double Bay 2
Bradfield & Pritchard 1
Feldi 1
Goodyer Donnelly 1
LJ Hooker Avalon 1
Place 1
Raine & Horne Mosman 1
Ray White Lower North Shore 1
Richardson & Wrench Elizabeth Bay 1
Sotheby’s 1
Ward 1

Source: Dyson Austen

www.dysonausten.com.au
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40 sales for the year in dollar value order – July 2008 to June 2009

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23-25 Coolong Road Vaucluse $45.000 Q308 McGrath / Cassim
23 Victoria Street Watsons Bay $28.100 Q308 Ken Jacobs / RW DB
108 Wolseley Road Point Piper $27.500 Q308 R&W DB
4 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $22.500 Q308 RW DB
114 Wolseley Road Point Piper $20.550 Q308 LJH DB
4 & 6 Burran Avenue Mosman $19.750 Q408 R&H Mosman
37 Wunulla Road Point Piper $18.450 Q408 LJH DB / L&S DB
40 Wentworth Road Vaucluse $18.000 Q209 RWDB / Cassim
5 Rose Bay Avenue Bellevue Hill $17.000 Q109 LJH DB
2 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $16.450 Q209 RWDB
25 Victoria Street Watsons Bay $16.000 Q109 No agent
8A Ginahgulla Road Bellevue Hill $15.000 Q109 RWDB
9 Wentworth Place Point Piper $14.900 Q408 Sotheby’s / LJH DB
92-94 Prince Alfred Parade Newport $14.600 Q308 LJH Avalon
6 Buena Vista Avenue Mosman $13.200 Q109 R&W Mosman
29 New South Head Road Vaucluse $12.900 Q109 R&H DB
71 Yarranabbe Road Darling Point $12.600 Q109 R&H DB
2 Loch Maree Place Vaucluse $12.500 Q408 LJH DB
20 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $12.500 Q408 RW DB / Ken Jacobs
22 Pacific Street Watsons Bay $12.500 Q408 Ken Kacobs
7 Wharf Road Vaucluse $12.500 Q408 R&W DB
39-40 Ocean Road Palm Beach $12.000 Q408 Knight Frank / LJH PB
1129 Barenjoey Road Palm Beach $12.000 Q209 RW DB
22 Rosemont Avenue Woollahra $11.800 Q109 McGrath
43 Wharf Road Birchgrove $11.500 Q408 No agent
9 Caledonian Road Rose Bay $10.800 Q308 RW DB
4 Wolseley Crescent Point Piper $10.500 Q408 R&H DB
1 Arbutus Street Mosman $10.500 Q408 RW LNS
16 Tivoli Avenue Rose Bay $10.500 Q209 LJH DB
20 Tivoli Avenue Rose Bay $10.500 Q209 LJH DB
15 Thompson Street Tamarama $10.500 Q308 Goodyer Donnelly
15A Burran Avnue Mosman $10.250 Q209 Ken Jacobs / R&W Mosman
12A & 12C Crescent Street Hunters Hill $9.200 Q308 Ward Partners
56 & 57/56 Pirrama Road Pyrmont $9.140 Q308 Feldi
53 Fitzwilliam Road Vaucluse $9.000 Q109 L&S DB
22A Vaucluse Road Vaucluse $9.000 Q209 Ken Jacobs
1A Arbutus Street Mosman $8.500 Q109 McGrath
44-46 Lang Road Centennial Park $8.300 Q209 Knight Frank / B&P
12/12 Onslow Avenue Elizabeth Bay $8.150 Q209 R&W EB/PP
86B Victoria Road Bellevue Hill $7.900 Q109 Place / LJH DB
17 Trelawney Street Woollahra $7.850 Q209 McGrath

Source: Dyson Austen

www.dysonausten.com.au

So let’s extrapolate this data. Dyson Austen Director Simon Feilich said “This takes us back to the June Quarter 2006 which had a lower quarterly total of approx $88 million.”

“In viewing the top 40 sales for the year, the top 5 all occurred in the 3rd quarter 2008, and as the world global financial crises got worse so too did this sector.”

“The five lowest sales all occurred in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2009 and were as low as $7.5500 million.”

“One of the strengths in the September 2008 quarter was due to the $A dollar collapsing by approximately 17.5 %.”

“The future is hard to predict and revolves around the buoyancy of the equity market which has seen rapid increases since its lows of 2009.”

“Should there be no “w” in the economy but rather the “v” which some commentators believe is the case, continuing strength in the equity market and increased funds available in the lending markets , with unemployment not decreasing I think the worst is over.”

For those unsure of this “w” and “v” language, “w” = double dip in the economy, a recovery, then another collapse and “v” = is what we have at the moment where recovery continues in an upward trend.

It’s all about confidence – the National Australia Bank (NAB) this week released its monthly business survey’s measure of business confidence which increased 8 index points to plus – 18 points in August. The highest level in almost six years (2003).

This week’s unemployment figures identified that it has steadied although it should be noted that there still remains some degree of volatility and hopefully it has peaked at 5.7 per cent – well below the projected 8 per cent.

Carsales.com floated this week which was a great test for our financial markets. Business Spectator reported. “There would have been a lot of relieved investment bankers and promoters after Carsales.com drove smoothly onto the ASX lists. The listing, the first big initial float since the financial crisis erupted, was seen as a vital tone-setter for the pipeline of IPOs, some larger, to come.

A solid gain of about 10 per cent on the $3.50 issue price would be regarded as a ‘just about right’ outcome – not too big a gain to upset the relatively small group of pre-existing shareholders who sold into the offer process but big enough to make the subscribers content.”

That, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of this week’s report and remember where you read it first. My special thanks to Simon Feilich and Tim Mooney for their much appreciated assistance with the preparation of this week’s edition of Virtual Realty News.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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11.09.09Robert Simeon1 Comment »

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The Australian economy is booming with the good news this week from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) that our gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6 per cent (seasonally adjusted). There were no downward GDP revisions for the March quarter which remained at 0.4 per cent and I fail to understand why the global financial crisis (GFC) is still being compared to the worst global economic downturn since the Great Depression. The recession of the early nineties plays it off a break, but the early nineties could hardly be described as global either. Unemployment this time didn’t climb to eleven plus per cent (5.8 per cent as at July) and interest rates today remain at 49 year lows.

‘The Punch’ (another great online read) – Clive Mathieson wrote, What Recession? “What a lovely recession we’re having. Or not having”. I do agree however, with the school of thought that we will see some economic tremors along the way and this is inevitable given the sudden impact of the GFC.

Just like the Y2K computer scare – remember that? A global electronic meltdown was predicted when we moved from 31 December 1999 to 1 January 2000, over concerns that (to save computer disk and memory space), computer softwares were using two digits to represent a year (98 instead of 1998). For example the difference between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 1999 could be calculated as -100 years as against one day. On the stroke of midnight on 31 December 1999 it was predicted that this computer bug would see businesses and industry decimated and we would see planes falling from the sky. On the stroke of midnight, planes flew, fireworks went off over Sydney Harbour and computers worked fine.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Alan Kohler wrote another wonderful article “Bulls at the Gate” on his Business Spectator website. “But Australia’s June quarter GDP is important for two reasons: it confirms that Australia has not had a recession at all, and indeed the economy has now expanded for 18 consecutive years; and secondly it will help ensure that business and consumer confidence remains strong.”

As quick as a flash Wayne Swan announced that our economic growth (Australia has been the best performing advanced economy over the past year) was a result of the stimulus. Earlier in the week he said that opposition treasury spokesman, Joe Hockey, must be “deaf, dumb and blind – if he thinks the Government’s economic stimulus is not working.”

I did like this comment “There are tradies all over the country who are working on stimulus projects. It’s adding to confidence in a way that we don’t see anywhere else in the world.” True Wayne – but other countries are actually in recession – we’re not! Then we had some economic speak from the King of Spin, Ruddy Fantastic, who said “The figures (GDP) that have been released today indicate that we’ve got a long way to go when it comes to economic recovery.” Translated, that means we have a long way to go to get his budget into surplus again.

Leo Shanahan penned this beauty in The Punch “Rudd’s secret spending freeze: no soup for you”

Whilst on long roads, spare a thought for the Y2K equivalent of Australian economics Steve Keen who, in my opinion, irresponsibly predicted on nearly every available media outlet, that Australian house prices would fall by 40 per cent and unemployment would shoot through the roof to “depressionary” levels. This prompted Rory Robertson (interest rate strategist) to jump from the factory floor at Macquarie Bank to bet Steve Keen that if his predictions proved correct he would walk from Canberra to Mount Kosciusko. To read about the bet, Business Spectator filed this story by economist Christopher Joye – “Let the Kosciusko march begin” For the record, Rory Robertson was spot – on with his GFC commentaries.

This takes me to the cash rate which remained on hold when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), met this week and decided to leave it at 3.00 per cent. The cash rate has remained at 3.00 per cent for five consecutive months and next month, I predict it will move to 3.25 per cent – the cost of bank funding is going up not down.

Rory Robertson has also predicted a 25bp increase on October 6 based on the latest data identifying a strong rise in house prices. He wrote “With the RBA reportedly keen to start tightening its loosest – ever policy stance at the earliest – available opportunity, the combination of (a) rising GDP (b) a brighter investment picture and, now (c) stronger growth in house prices, might well prove irresistible. The “economic emergency” clearly is over, “nipped in the bud” by early timely and forceful monetary – and fiscal – policy action.”

I believe he may have been referring to the July RP Data – Rismark Hedonic Index results that revealed Australian home values are now 1.8 per cent above their previous peak in February 2008. The intrigue is building for our Mosman markets given we have record high rents and record low levels of stock – better known as a heated market. Stay tuned.

Quite amazing that should the RBA increase the cash rate next month, it would be moving in a totally different direction to Fort Fumble – Ruddy Fantastic’s empire! That’s it! Ruddy Fantastic is out and now he will be called The Emperor – given his ‘sweet and sour’ patterns of behaviour.

Spare a thought for ‘big’ Johnny Della Bonka at Fort Crumble, where we saw the battered draw bridge rise (figuratively speaking). This prompted a vote of no confidence by the opposition in parliament this week – which failed. Our elected NSW government failed to produce yet another leadership challenge by the Bonka. Watch Frank “cranky” Sartor exercise his recently acquired power- play: the funnier side of politics where the patients challenge the asylum. The Emperor is far from impressed.

This week, Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) released another great online application for our clients – ‘Mohbe’ – mobile phone real estate. Mohbe allows real estate agencies to have their own agency branded mobile phone website for their property listings. The mobile phone websites are viewable through any mobile phone which has an Internet browser and access to the Internet. RWM is Mohbe’s first client in NSW to offer this application. Take a test drive www.mohbe.com/124232

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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4.09.09Robert SimeonNo Comments »

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I’ve been obsessed now with the www – (weird whacky ways) consumer online movement for fourteen years. Prior to that, we had black and white television, fresh daily milk deliveries in glass bottles, one telephone per household, wash tub wringers, beta videos and 45 rpm records. We also paid for a newspaper (unless you stole it) and let’s not forget that when you dialled 013 (directories) you were charged for the experience. Today, these, enquiries are made online – free of charge.

CEO’s and business owners are currently struggling to understand the latest online strategies (and survive) and why, their respective businesses are looking pear-shaped. It is happening in television advertising, print media and radio commercials – online advertising has arrived and is taking a significant market share. In fact, it’s booming.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

Just look at the profit reporting announcements this week where Fairfax Media posted a net full – year loss of $380 million announcing “unprecedented” declines in advertising revenues. The Seven Network posted a 91.2 per cent decline in full year profit where large losses were proportioned to their ownership of West Australian Newspapers (again citing declines in the overall advertising market). News Corp really brought home the bacon by posting a $US3.4 billion ($4.03 billion) loss citing a downturn in advertising markets and impairment charges. Newspaper advertising strategies require a complete overhaul and it is obvious that the present methodology is becoming irrelevant and too expensive, compared to the alternatives.

Just thirteen houses in Mosman were advertised in last Saturday’s edition of Domain. This prompted me to count just how many houses were advertised on Domain in total. Just 86 – the lowest number in memory. Not at all helpful, was the fact that we sold $17,385,000 worth of houses since last week’s edition of Virtual Realty News. No longer available – 23 Upper Avenue Road, 10 Middle Head Road, 15A Clanalpine Avenue, Sirius Cove, 5 Wonga Road (four sales by electronic advertising campaigns). A clue! $929,190,221 in subscriber sales in the Mosman – Cremorne and Neutral Bay market. As well as the best our online position (database) we have the best negotiators!

It should be noted that our property markets are no longer predictable with the upcoming Spring/Summer market appearing (at this point) to being very tightly held. Open house inspections over before lunch (who would have predicted that?) – changing times.

All arrows keep pointing to Google. It commands ninety per cent of online search enquiries in Australia and it is a no-brainer for any business not to be dominant on the major information highway. Competing search engine Bing (less than ten per cent of searches) has just announced its user-submitted homepage competition, although I remain unconvinced that this photo will significantly increase traffic – it is not the picture but the the content that attracts eyeballs!

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News Limited’s arrows apparently now point to paid online readership when the Los Angeles Times reported “Chief Digital officer Jonathan Miller has positioned News Corp, as a logical leader in the effort to start collecting fees from online readers.” As quick as a flash (and unprecedented – I believe) Fairfax boss Brian McCarthy announced that he was “happy to talk” to rival News Corp about its plan to charge readers who access online news content. Charge for online? I wonder if newspapers will then be free – what an about face. The Internet has simply matured and users have embraced this change in culture. It is now widely acknowledged that the online available resources in modern times are rolling out much smarter user experiences and applications.

Late in 2006 – Google (the monster) acquired YouTube for $US1.76 billion which just so happens to be the Internet’s top video channel. Now YouTube will start paying videographers for their content given they are now accepting page advertisers.

Twitter co-founder Biz Stone also announced that he too would introduce some type of paid content for commercial customers. Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) is the only Mosman agency (that I am aware of) using Twitter as Biz identified for his charging model “But we we’ve identified a selection of things that businesses say are helping to make them more profit.” Nothing wrong with a pay to stay model as long as you understand it – I still believe Google will somehow mash YouTube into its real estate model.

So let’s move to the following quote that I read online this week “Web Squared: Web 2.0 Five Years On” (a great read – should you be moving. Please download and read) “Hence our theme for this year: Web Squared. 1990 -2004 was the match being struck; 2005-2009 was the fuse; and 2010 will be the explosion.” In summation the report tells us “If we are going to solve the world’s most pressing problems, we must put the power of the Web to work, its technologies, its business models, and perhaps most importantly, its philosophies of openness, collective intelligence, and transparency. And to do that, we must take the Web to another level. We can’t afford incremental evolution anymore.”

“It’s time for the Web to engage the real world. Web meets World – that’s Web-Squared.”

Every time you open a link, Google rewards that business with a vote that propels it in their rankings for that respective keyword search – the more votes, the higher your business ranking which explains why consumer communication (newsletters) keeps getting voted into powerful online positions on the Google Monster.

Since the unexpected Global Financial Crisis arrived here in Australia our business model has exceeded our expectations (all things considered) based on the results we have delivered in our marketplace. In my opinion, RWM could not be better prepared for the predicted “explosion” next year. Web Squared said “But 2009 marks a pivot point in the history of the Web. It’s time to leverage the true power of the platform we’ve built. The Web is no longer an industry unto itself – the Web is now the world.”

Yes – times change – although not as fast as NSW Labor changes Premiers. Embarrassing, and highlights the gross incompetence at Fort Crumble. Woolworths wants a bigger tool box to nail consumers and speculation that our property market is set for another boom. June quarter GDP figures are released next week – negative or positive? I predict positive although a negative result would put an interesting spin on the micro/macro analogies of economic recovery.

Once www stood for weird whacky ways – now I suggest that www should stand for ‘what (a) wonderful world’. I should register that and remember where you read it first. See you next week and our online business shall forever remain free – another clue.

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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28.08.09Robert Simeon11 Comments »

Google in Australia is the online monster, better known as Australia’s online library with approximately ten million visitors logging on each month. Last Saturday, in The Sydney Morning Herald, Julian Lee wrote a fascinating article about the “Google Monster” which I recommend you read (if you haven’t already). Nine out of every ten searches on the Internet are made through the Google Monster – which has catapulted this business to Australia’s number one media company. As Julian Lee wrote “Google’s revenue is estimated to be $700 million and fast heading towards $1 billion as more advertisers divert their budgets into a medium that delivers them measurability and sales leads.”

Last month the Google Monster entered the Australian property market when it released its real estate directory Google Maps. What this illustrated to me is just how little Mosman real estate agents know and understand about online given that Google measures all websites based on algorithms – whereby the greater the individual pages from a website, the higher the Google ranking on search enquiries. We try to add around 50 to 100 pages on Google each and every week and real estate agencies with an online plan, are doing very well in the current conditions.

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Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

This week, we ventured into left field (no pun intended) as one expat subscriber was explaining to his son, the importance of Australia winning The Ashes at The Oval. As quick as a flash we sent Tim to capture a photograph of The Sydney Cricket Ground – where we all share so many childhood memories. So if you want a particular photo from Tim, send your request via our blog and if he does not have it, we will pay him to take it and this will appear in future editions –must be Eastern seaboard* (*everything has conditions).

Back to that Google Monster where I remain amazed that Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) is the only Mosman agency that directs Google Maps enquiries back to its own website. This explains why our agency is positioned at number one for all search enquiries on Google (Mosman real estate) searches. We have a few thousand pages already on Google which is why we appear at the top of all searches relevant to our market demographic.

Someone is telling “porky pies”. The Weekend Australian ran a story last Saturday saying that Ruddy Fantastic is reportedly planning an absurd tax on family homes valued at over $2,000,000. Political ventriloquist, Wayne Swan, was quick to deny this. Whatever the case, a concerning leak, given that Federal government has to fast track its pay back of the stimulus packages – interest payments alone are estimated at $10 billion a year. In this comprehensive Australian tax review (currently under way by Treasury) it appears that the two worst taxes affecting our property markets – Stamp Duty and Land Tax (both State taxes) would be unlikely to change given that State governments are broke. The only alternate increase would be GST and such a decision would not be popular. With the benefit of hindsight, the stimulus packages were excessive and even though our economy has recovered, Federal and State governments are steeped in their own recessions.

Obviously, Kevin Rudd did not read the Sinclair Davidson (Professor at the School of Economics, Finance and Marketing and a senior fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs.) “Rudd’s stimulus has nothing to do with the economy” which appeared on www.crikey.com.au

Sinclair Davidson wrote “Pessimistic bias is the tendency to over-estimate the economic severity of economic problems. The idea that the Global Financial Crisis is similar to the Great Depression is simply nonsense (I said this a month ago). Australian unemployment in the 1930’s peaked at over 25%. Unemployment is now seen at levels not seen since the early 2000s. The “collapse” in forecast revenue that so spooked the government, returned us to levels not seen since 2006.” Sinclair Davidson then wrote “The government argued that the stimulus package was intended to save jobs. That may well be an admirable goal. But why then stimulate the construction industry? Were the unemployed bankers and brokers and lawyers expected to get jobs building school halls?” Interesting points which no doubt will be debated on our blog (each comment generates another RWM page on Google.)

Before Ruddy Fantastic starts increasing taxes he should read this report compiled by the Australian Housing and Research Institute (AHURI) – Does Higher Housing Wealth Increase Consumer Spending? The key point from its findings was that – A $100,000 increase in housing wealth is associated with an increase in consumption expenditure of approximately $1,000 to $1,500 per annum in Australia. The Federal government can ill afford to infect the property markets with badly thought out tax. Instead, it should look at the tax debacle created by Fort Crumble (NSW government) when it introduced (then embarrassingly dismissed) Vendor Exit Tax!

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But then again I keep revisiting Peter Costello’s musings which appeared in The Sydney Morning Herald on April 29,2009 ” Buy now and pay much more later” . A compelling argument where the stimulus payback may well be worse for Australia than our very quick time in recession.

So let me turn your attention back to the Google Monster – which was not even a concept back in the recession of the early nineties. The Internet has played an enormous part as an accelerated driving force to economic recovery.A majority of decision makers simply don’t understand it and we now find ourselves indebted to their lack of understanding and knowledge for that matter.

In their defence – businesses and governments are now just starting to understand the powers of this monster, and it is not just Google that is reaping the benefits.

Cheers ^_-^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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21.08.09Robert Simeon10 Comments »

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The global financial crisis (GFC) in Australia was short and quick and now Australia has to manage its inherited financial flu, courtesy of inexperienced politicians shooting from the hip (your hip pocket).

With the benefit of hindsight, the global financial crisis (GFC) was not equal (or even close) to the Great Depression (Rudd/Swan analogies via Fort Fumble (Federal government), where, rash/panic policy decisions have sent our national recovery back decades. I stand convinced that businesses have led the road to recovery – not cash splashes. Just one negative quarter of economic growth (March quarter) does not (and should not) equate to over $300 billion of debt.

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Tim Mooney Photography – Palm Beach & Palm Beach Lighthouse

www.timmooneyphotography.com

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took a totally different read on our economy and massaged the cash rate down, opting for measured reductions over panic policy. RBA – “In contrast to most other developed economies, indicators of household activity in Australia have been fairly resilient over the past year. Retail sales and the housing market have been quite buoyant since late 2008 and there has been a significant rebound in consumer sentiment, particularly over the last few months.” With the recession now abating, the next move with interest rates will be up not down.

Given that the vast majority of businesses received absolutely no financial benefit from Fort Fumble’s financial based recovery plan, the question now is, when will an Australian Federal government next return a budget surplus? In all probability 2020. That means eleven years of lost opportunities to build a better and stronger economy.

A recession (March quarter) is no excuse for the embarrassing rhetoric from elected politicians when in front of a camera. If the majority of those running businesses had listened to Fort Fumble’s predictions of doom and gloom (Great Depression 2) unemployment would have been closer to ten per cent. Fort Fumble panicked but fortunately, business managers relied on their own aptitude, intelligence and readings of their respective business markets. Then again, they are not playing with and wasting other people’s money.

Just as interesting are journalists who don’t ask elected politicians if they still stand by their previous predictions regarding the GFC, which prompted unprecedented national debt levels. Just as interesting again, is that the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index rose 4.0 per cent in August to 113.4 points which lifts the index to its highest level since October 2007, when it recorded 115.3 points.

Much like the innuendo that half of Mosman’s houses (Mosman has 4,900 houses approximately) were secretly on the market when anecdotal sales evidence could only identify 275 (November 2008) that were actually for sale. Today, when I look at www.domain.com.au Mosman has just 75 houses for sale which leads us to predict that house prices will jump by a ten per cent minimum in the run through to Christmas. Of the 75 houses currently available, 24 have been on the market for less than one month, 10 have been on the market for less than two months and 41 have been on the market for over three months.

The real estate industry is quickly moving into overdrive with the leading online agencies (those who invested in the future with their own money) becoming the preferred option for vendors).

PricewaterhouseCoopers recently released its Entertainment & Media Outlook 2009-2013 report which predicts growth at just 1.7 per cent as against the previous average annual spend of 5.5 per cent. It will be very difficult for traditional media to bounce back when vendors are opting for online campaigns over more expensive print campaigns. Everything points to the internet. This is exactly how agents are increasing their online presence with database client communications. I will make a prediction that over the next 24 months, a quarter of Australian real estate agencies will close down simply because they have fallen by the wayside with technology. This is the stark reality of changing times where nine years on our online media platform convictions/predictions are now a reality.

Electronic listings for ‘homes open for inspection’ are now being fast tracked. Then again, Richardson & Wrench Mosman (RWM) has been doing this for nine years and we were the first real estate agency to release this industry media platform.

My thanks to Steve and Richard for writing the last three editions while I took my mid-year break. Unfortunately, I failed in my efforts to secure that Aussie Bar table mat, because they have now sold out – so I am back at Christmas to secure this valued commodity.

Plenty of clues in the Mosman housing market at this point in time. RWM currently has 25 per cent of the Mosman housing market on our online sales platform which coincides with the fact that RWM has sold the greatest number of homes during the GFC – then again how many weekly market updates are in your inbox?

Cheers ^__^

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

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14.08.09Robert Simeon23 Comments »

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With Robert returning today, it’s Steve and Richard’s last chance to throw a few more thoughts your way. So next week, watch out for more contentious and newsworthy journalism. Good luck out there to our vendors and purchasers alike. We wish you happy property hunting as we move into Spring.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

RICHARD’S FIVE REAL ESTATE TIPS

•Investment tip of the month – without doubt, Holsworthy is now flush with bargains. Nice semi-rural setting although there may be a few local security issues.

•Interest rates on hold for the last time? – It’s probably a fair call. Although this is a negative thought for most, it is a positive sign for boosting the real estate market. We are at the bottom and the only way is up, so there is no reason for buyers to delay purchasing. Our banks are over it and they want to make money, so watch-out!

•Potential vendors, if you plan to sell in the next 12 months, I think the time is now! Buyers are screaming for more choice and they will to commit to a purchase. With less property on the market, buyers are forced to compete; simple forces of supply and demand apply, so sale prices will be higher this quarter. Interest rates are still very low and ‘the media’ hasn’t started its next wave of negative real estate commentary, which is sure to happen when the inevitable inflationary spike eventuates.

•Don’t let your agent under-quote your property in this market, claiming this is the best way to drive the price up, or blaming the tough market. The reality is, that although prices are firming, the market is still soft and more than ever, every buyer wants real value for money. No buyer today wants to believe that they paid the asking price in this market. Every agent will have excellent comparable sales to determine and justify a strong value for the property they represent, which every good buyer needs to appreciate.

•To determine the best agent to sell your property, the most important question is: “Tell me the strategies you will use to achieve the highest possible price and what do you do differently from other agents?” Today, more than ever, the difference between a good and poor result will cost you up to 20%. So, by choosing the wrong agent and agency, you could be risking hundreds of thousands of dollars. Any agent can quote a potential high sale price, but if they cannot convince you how and why they will achieve that price, then it won’t happen in the market.

HOT REAL ESTATE TIPS FROM STEPHEN PATRICK

•Timing – It is vitally important to get the selling period right when putting your property on the market. In suburbs like Mosman, many families have weekend properties or holiday homes that they head off to for the school holidays. Hence, on the Lower North Shore, our open inspection numbers can drop by over 50% during school holidays. So if we have an extensive marketing programme booked, we make sure that it falls between school holiday periods.

•Presentation – This can make a huge difference. For example, if the furniture in the house has been bashed to bits by your kids over the last 20 years, it may make the house look old and tired. It is often hugely successful to rent new furniture for a 4-week marketing period to maximise your price. Obviously the flooring and paint on the walls also have to be in good order to set off the furniture. This presentation can make a huge difference to the end price.

•Concept Plans – For properties that are under-developed, where there is extensive potential to extend and upgrade, we often have an architect draw up concept plans to give buyers ideas of what can be done to fully maximise the property’s potential. Fabulous computer images cam be produced to help buyers visualise the property on completion.

•Facts & Features – Many quality homes have numerous features of interest to buyers – too many to list on a standard sales brochure. With so many available choices of tiles, stones, c-bus systems etc. it is important to transfer all the information to the buyer when they are considering the property. All the extra quality features in the property substantiate the high price expectations. A house that cost $1m to build can seem an exact replica of a $2m home of higher quality with extra technology, but much of the extra cost is hidden unless we specifically let buyers know.

•Landscaping and Gardening – It is also important to have your gardens in order. The front entrance is particularly important to create that very important ‘first impression’.

•A Makeover – Can work wonders and this could include the cleaning of tiled/sandstone paths, a house wash and new colourful plants added to the garden. There are several companies who will do this at a very competitive price.

Kindest regards and good luck!

Stephen Patrick (Principal) & Richard Simeon (Director)

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

7.08.09Stephen Patrick4 Comments »

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With Robert still sunning himself in Thailand, I will make today’s report brief, as I know I cannot compete with the master!

I think Richard Simeon’s column last week sums up my opinion of the market as well. For the first time in 12 months, we are getting some positive reports from economic advisors.

I, like many I am sure, get up every morning and switch on to the international business channels on Foxtel. It gives a reading or a ‘pulse’ of what is happening around the USA, Europe and the UK. For the past nine months, it has been depressing to hear the daily doom and gloom. Lately however, although the news has been cautious, it has been more up-beat and positive. The stock market seems to have bounced back of the bottom and stabilized and this is what I believe has also happened to our market.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

As you know, our recent spate of sales in May-June saw us selling lots of houses and units…….a pleasant change, I must say!

Because the market has bounced back and stabilized, the bargain hunters will struggle to find a bargain and will have to pay a fair market price – I repeat ‘fair’, not bullish.

I feel people who bought in the past six months, may have bought at the bottom, although not all were at bargain prices. Some prices were very strong, because they were prime properties in prominent positions.

I had a meeting with an old real estate colleague this morning, who has been in the game for 25 years. He is marketing a project at ‘Top Ryde City apartments’ which is a huge retail, commercial and residential development in Top Ryde. It is apparently the biggest development of its type in Australia.

Tony tells me that last week end, they sold 47 units off the plan – not to first home buyers, as they are too dear for that market. All the buyers are local families and investors. This shows that the tide has turned and people are confidently getting back into real estate. Tony’s comments were ‘we are coming out of this downturn much faster than the early 90’s, which dragged on for three years”.

The local market is short on stock not short on buyers, so this in itself, will keep prices steady. So I think it may be time for the ‘fence sitters’ to make a decision and get back into the market before they miss ‘the best home for them’ by being too price sensitive and not practical.

I hope everyone has enjoyed a great school holiday break and look forward to seeing you at the ‘opens’.

Cheers,

Steve

P.S. For all those interested rugby followers, the Mosman U12’s Cuda’s tour of N.Z. was a 3-0 white wash for our local team – winning all three games in Queenstown. Luckily, Robbie Deans who lives in Mosman now, can run his eye over some future Wallabies!!

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

31.07.09Stephen Patrick2 Comments »

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While Robert takes a well earned Winter break, I’ll step into the chair this week and give you a break from the politics and the stats and talk directly about the market from the coal face.

In a year or two will you look back over the last 12 months and realise you’ve lost an opportunity? Only time will tell. Let’s reflect briefly on the facts and move forward, based on evidence and current trends. On reflection, over the last 12 months, buyers were initially and justifiably seeking their revenge against property prices that had become inflated. By mid 2008, they were trying to pick the bottom of the market and by the end of 2008, the vast majority of buyers had decided not to purchase, unsure of whether we were entering into a deep recession. Those that were not adversely affected by the GFC (Global Financial Crisis) sat back in the hope of further price drops and more choice as ‘distressed’ properties came onto the market.

Tim Mooney Photography

www.timmooneyphotography.com

The first quarter of 2009 was disappointing for longer term purchasers as they saw prices starting to stabilise, while low stock levels remained. By the second quarter, sentiment was starting to pick up and buyers revisited the stock that had not sold. This resulted in a doubling of weekly inspection numbers compared to previous months. In May–June we sold 80% of our entire stock – $61,000,000 worth of property and 90% of the prices achieved were in-line with, or above, vendor expectations. There were no ‘fire-sales’. These results speak for themselves and the property sales ranged from $2m re-builds to $8m residences.

As I talked with and gave advice to a continual line of vendors and purchasers, a few trends emerged. Discerning vendors, although not pressured to sell, had taken this as an opportunity to sell first, then re-buy in a softer market thus realising a greater financial upside than if they traded up in a ‘bull-market’. Those purchasers who were cashed-up and wanting to move forward with their lives have been able to secure an ideal property for a realistic price and with less competition than normal. Having said that, the relatively low stock levels meant that purchasers have had less choice and this has assisted in keeping prices stable.

Moving forward, I believe this is a good market for both vendors and purchasers. Australia seems to have weathered the financial turbulence relatively well and we are seeing slightly more desperate purchasers, who have been in the market for up to 12 months, keen to buy in the coming months. Property prices have stabilised and with purchasers wanting to proceed more quickly, the typical ‘days on market’ period for new listings should reduce dramatically.

As school holidays conclude, expect to see some new stock entering the market, but perhaps not at the same volume as in previous years. Vendors who do wish to sell should ideally be planning to sell early in Spring to give them as much time as possible to secure their new property this year, in the same property cycle. Although we are seeing a return of more positive sentiment, cash is still king, so take advantage and buy in the coming months (although we still predict stock levels will remain well under demand).

Many of our clients use us as “real estate advisors,” whether they are looking to sell or buy. As with any good investment advisor, our focus is to help you plan for your long term success, in line with your expectations and ideals. We assist, educate and empower every purchaser to proceed, and, at the same time, focus on exceeding the expectations of our vendors. This results in a win for both parties.

So whether you plan to sell, buy, or both, we wish you well in the coming months and hope to see many of you out there in the market. If you need a sounding board or constructive property advice, we would be delighted to contribute to your knowledge base, so don’t hesitate to pick up the phone.

Kind regards,

Richard Simeon
Director

For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales www.rwm.com.au/news/

Here is a link to a property portal survey that only takes about thirty seconds to complete www.aussierealestateportals.questionpro.com Your participation would be very much appreciated.

24.07.09Richard SimeonNo Comments »