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	<title>Comments on: Shorting property markets and longing for accuracy – no chance</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/05/shorting-property-markets-and-longing-for-accuracy-%e2%80%93-no-chance/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/05/shorting-property-markets-and-longing-for-accuracy-%e2%80%93-no-chance/</link>
	<description>Richardson &#38; Wrench: Mosman &#38; Neutral Bay is a team of qualified and committed people in Sydney</description>
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		<title>By: Robert Simeon</title>
		<link>http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/05/shorting-property-markets-and-longing-for-accuracy-%e2%80%93-no-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-260</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert Simeon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2009 02:53:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rwm.com.au/?p=1665#comment-260</guid>
		<description>Dave,

What I find amazing is that until recently we had not heard a single thing about this proposal before ASIC. I think the hedge funds will stick to shorting the banks and other financial institutions following the announcement yesterday to lift the shorting ban. 

You are correct we are in the box seat where I believe the agents will confidentially archieve sales results - who wants to take a punt on property markets in May when you are working off March Data (and that is still incomplete). RP Data need a new strategy for their model to work.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dave,</p>
<p>What I find amazing is that until recently we had not heard a single thing about this proposal before ASIC. I think the hedge funds will stick to shorting the banks and other financial institutions following the announcement yesterday to lift the shorting ban. </p>
<p>You are correct we are in the box seat where I believe the agents will confidentially archieve sales results &#8211; who wants to take a punt on property markets in May when you are working off March Data (and that is still incomplete). RP Data need a new strategy for their model to work.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave B</title>
		<link>http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/05/shorting-property-markets-and-longing-for-accuracy-%e2%80%93-no-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-258</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave B</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 May 2009 07:36:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rwm.com.au/?p=1665#comment-258</guid>
		<description>Robert, looks like you&#039;re in the box seat then!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robert, looks like you&#8217;re in the box seat then!</p>
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		<title>By: Robert Simeon</title>
		<link>http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/05/shorting-property-markets-and-longing-for-accuracy-%e2%80%93-no-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-257</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert Simeon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 May 2009 05:49:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rwm.com.au/?p=1665#comment-257</guid>
		<description>Dave, you are correct and the property aggregators would love nothing more than to get their hands on data when a property exchanges as against when it settles which can be many months later. The only people that have access to exchanged data are the agents - with absolutely no legal requirement to share this data. 

A vexing issue - indeed :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dave, you are correct and the property aggregators would love nothing more than to get their hands on data when a property exchanges as against when it settles which can be many months later. The only people that have access to exchanged data are the agents &#8211; with absolutely no legal requirement to share this data. </p>
<p>A vexing issue &#8211; indeed <img src='http://www.rwm.com.au/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Dave B</title>
		<link>http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/05/shorting-property-markets-and-longing-for-accuracy-%e2%80%93-no-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-256</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave B</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 May 2009 05:32:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rwm.com.au/?p=1665#comment-256</guid>
		<description>Robert, good point you raise.  Essentially, you&#039;re saying that real estate agents may compromise the integrity of the index, putting investors off supporting such a derivative.

Presumably Rismark derive sales data from sources other than real estate agents, such as the Office of State Revenue.  I am no expert on Real Estate Agent&#039;s disclosure requirements but I would imagine distorted reporting would attract Trade Practices Act attention.

Regardless, if you think about this product, who will it appeal to? Developers would want to short sell it to hedge the value of their investments (provided they are not already broke).  Banks would have to short sell it to protect against negative equity from falling property prices. This may be seen as a cheaper version of LMI.  

Those who have perhaps a broader macro perspective than the Mosman peninsular might see it as an appropriate sell, given the precendence of other, similar markets etc.

The only ones who would really buy this index are those saving for a deposit and don&#039;t want prices to creep away from them, the small end of town.

So yes, this M Jackson is completely correct.  This is a screaming sell, no matter how the data is manipulated.  The big money is hedging against price decline and negative equity.  The smart money is shorting anything to do with Australian property.  And Real Estate agents are clutching at straws, claiming housing hes never been so affordable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robert, good point you raise.  Essentially, you&#8217;re saying that real estate agents may compromise the integrity of the index, putting investors off supporting such a derivative.</p>
<p>Presumably Rismark derive sales data from sources other than real estate agents, such as the Office of State Revenue.  I am no expert on Real Estate Agent&#8217;s disclosure requirements but I would imagine distorted reporting would attract Trade Practices Act attention.</p>
<p>Regardless, if you think about this product, who will it appeal to? Developers would want to short sell it to hedge the value of their investments (provided they are not already broke).  Banks would have to short sell it to protect against negative equity from falling property prices. This may be seen as a cheaper version of LMI.  </p>
<p>Those who have perhaps a broader macro perspective than the Mosman peninsular might see it as an appropriate sell, given the precendence of other, similar markets etc.</p>
<p>The only ones who would really buy this index are those saving for a deposit and don&#8217;t want prices to creep away from them, the small end of town.</p>
<p>So yes, this M Jackson is completely correct.  This is a screaming sell, no matter how the data is manipulated.  The big money is hedging against price decline and negative equity.  The smart money is shorting anything to do with Australian property.  And Real Estate agents are clutching at straws, claiming housing hes never been so affordable.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael</title>
		<link>http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/05/shorting-property-markets-and-longing-for-accuracy-%e2%80%93-no-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-254</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2009 11:45:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rwm.com.au/?p=1665#comment-254</guid>
		<description>Great photography Tim.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great photography Tim.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Mooney</title>
		<link>http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/05/shorting-property-markets-and-longing-for-accuracy-%e2%80%93-no-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-252</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Mooney</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 04:51:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rwm.com.au/?p=1665#comment-252</guid>
		<description>Robert if your readers would like to get an enlargement print of the aerial pics just get them to drop me an email: info@timmooneyphotography.com
Thanks
Tim</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robert if your readers would like to get an enlargement print of the aerial pics just get them to drop me an email: <a href="mailto:info@timmooneyphotography.com">info@timmooneyphotography.com</a><br />
Thanks<br />
Tim</p>
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		<title>By: Robert Simeon</title>
		<link>http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/05/shorting-property-markets-and-longing-for-accuracy-%e2%80%93-no-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-251</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert Simeon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 01:46:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rwm.com.au/?p=1665#comment-251</guid>
		<description>Pete, 

I wish that I had known earlier as I have unfortunately given my chauffeur the day off. I am more than happy for Steve or Richard to race you:)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pete, </p>
<p>I wish that I had known earlier as I have unfortunately given my chauffeur the day off. I am more than happy for Steve or Richard to race you:)</p>
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		<title>By: peter maccormick</title>
		<link>http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/05/shorting-property-markets-and-longing-for-accuracy-%e2%80%93-no-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-250</link>
		<dc:creator>peter maccormick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 01:43:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rwm.com.au/?p=1665#comment-250</guid>
		<description>happy to compete with you on the balmoral burn !!!  R&amp;W against Napier !!!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>happy to compete with you on the balmoral burn !!!  R&amp;W against Napier !!!!</p>
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