Archive for April, 2009

NSW has actually been in a state of recession for at least ten years.

It would be simply impossible for anyone to win a spirited debate in defence of the NSW Labor government’s competency over the last decade. If you thought “underbelly” was riveting viewing, imagine a screening of “undergovernment” where honest tax payer monies simply disappeared, just like elected politicians (on pensions). Yet despite NSW record tax receipts, the state government actually went backwards financially and this resulted in the collapse of infrastructure.

The elected government at “Fort Crumble” (NSW government) is now faced with liquidation asset sales – this only happens when you are stone motherless broke. A government initiative to sell when weak and not at the peak is self explanatory. Soon to appear on eBay:-

NSW Government – sales spin to likely buyers.

  • NSW State Lotteries – Price reduced from $800 million to $500 million (still a gamble) where we remain at odds with this asset. Sensational cash flow especially in a recession.
  • Prisons – a very popular asset with excellent occupancy rates and return clients.
  • Transport – our ferries already have overseas interest.
  • Electricity retail – excellent buying and currently in the black. Torches offered to interested parties.
  • Waste management – government assistance offered on wastage as it is so important to get it right.This explains why this asset is up for sale. We wrote the book on waste!
  • Schools – who needs land when you have a computer (thanks Ruddy) the new cyberspace?

    Fort Crumble revealed this week yet another new initiative – a rain tax! Farmers will be slugged an additional $60.00 per annum for (wait for it) “unregulated river system management costs” which will be rolled out throughout all farms in the Premier State. Those city slickers can soon expect an “unregulated oxygen management cost” tax with the catch cry – “in NSW we squeeze the life out of you.”

    This is evidenced by the brutal statistic that unemployment in NSW stands at 6.9 per cent – equivalent to that in Britain today. Simply put, the NSW state government is a global embarrassment to this once successful and very proud state but hey, Australia is now in recession (as if we didn’t already know).

    Ruddy Fantastic announced this week that Australia would be dragged into a recession for the first time since the 1990’s. Our esteemed leader Kevin Rudd said, “the worst global recession in 75 years means it’s inevitable that Australia will be dragged into recession.”

    So let’s look at the big picture – on 22 October 2008 Ruddy Fantastic’s officials met to discuss bank deposit guarantees – approved. The triple A rating is maintained with absolutely no conditions applied for the banks to toe the line by assisting struggling Australians. This monumental mistake by our Prime Minister defies rationality. An amazing and historical moment was lost – better known as an incompetent moment of confusion (also known as panic).

    When the Rudd government guaranteed banks why did they not screw them on credit card rates? Why did they not protect the unemployed from credit card 18 – 22 per cent rates when our cash rate is just 3.00 per cent? Holiday announcements for property mortgage holders, but no respite for those struggling with credit card debt – a monumental blunder.

    Therefore, one can only assume that housing values have bottomed, given that our Rudd “guaranteed banks” only passed on 10 basis point reductions when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate by 25 basis points this month.

    You may ask which part you have missed? In the very same week that Ruddy Fantastic announced that Australia “had been dragged into a recession” his government’s bank guarantees identified Westpac and NAB actually increasing fixed home loan rates. On the one hand, we have a stimulus package and on the other hand we now have a banking frustration package

    Just as absurd was this week’s announcement by Ruddy Fantastic’s government that it is considering banning bank “exit fees” to help borrowers frustrated by the failure of banks to pass on interest – rate cuts. Hello – banks are now increasing interest rates. Forget the horse – the banks have bolted. My point: the Rudd government held the cards – and folded.

    Over to the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) President, David Airey, who said it was surprising that two of the largest lenders in the home mortgage market had suddenly decided to raise rates.

    Airey said “I ask the CBA and Westpac to justify the reasons for increasing fixed mortgage rates when it is clear that the RBA are doing their best to stimulate the economy and decrease official interest rates.” Nice to see that somebody finally asked this question. Just a shame it was overlooked by our politicians (on both sides).

    Such an absolute debacle and the banks’ reason for the increase was the wholesale market swap rates. Back to the REIA “the London Interbank offered rate (libor) which is the rate banks charge for lending unsecured funds to one another, is lower than it was one month ago and less than it was one year ago.”

    The three month libor rate is now 1.12 per cent versus 1.30 per cent a month ago – which makes the Rudd Bank (our banking Folding Fortress) complete, with Court Jester too!

    We are in recession so how much of the hook, line and economic sinker should constituents be forced to swallow? Australia is the only country that I am aware of where the banks are raising rates.

    Authority lost – you can bank on that!

    Oh dear – what a monumental stuff – up! The much awaited rhetoric when the federal government announce its budget in just over two week’s time, will be riveting.

    With ANZAC Day now upon us – our banks and governments should share the spirit of what made this country great and what it stands for today.

    With our unemployment rate now predicted to climb to 10 per cent plus – one does not have to be a genius to work out who and what is out of control. Banking institutions simply outsmarting our federal government (Fort Fumble)? This is a great concern in my humble opinion. You may think differently?

    Cheers ^__^

    For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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  • At the end of the day, businesses want answers not questions!

    Without doubt the Global Financial Recession (GFR) will re-define outlooks and perceptions and see a vast array of business models challenged as we enter the brave new world. Testing times, but also exciting times which can be lost in a ground swell of confusion. However, despite all the doom and gloom, online technologies continue to add the zoom to our markets.

    Such revelations have not been popular with some real estate agencies who will now have to invest (their cash) in costly online upgrades and blogs (we believe we were the first ) to allow subscribers to voice their opinions.

    Time heals all markets and this time around (with the benefit of hindsight) on an economies of scale basis, the future looks very bright indeed. One only needs to look at mobile phone technologies to see where we are headed. The race is on to provide consumers with interactive property alerts and I’m not talking SMS either – which failed the consumer test of functionality and appreciation for that matter. Hosting individual media website platforms will be the next initiative for our industry which is fast becoming much more interactive. In time, print expenditure will be reduced with vendors moving to hi-tech video broadcasting that is already much more affordable.

    We certainly don’t speak for other businesses, that currently challenge the good, bad and ugly side of the GFR and I believe that the March quarter 2009 will be the worst on our constantly monitored business dashboard. There are signs that real estate markets are getting stronger due to the fact that available stock levels remain tight. Currently, all the buyer action is in the lower price ranges but this action will eventually move to the middle and eventually the top-end markets. Having said that, we believe the top-end properties will identify a capped reduction from fifteen (15) to twenty-five (25) per cent based on 2007 valuations. (It will be interesting to read subscribers’ thoughts on this week’s blog).

    Australian Property Monitors (owned by Fairfax Media) revealed that in the March quarter 2009, the number of properties sold in Sydney at auction, fell dramatically. The average price for properties sold at auction in Sydney during the March quarter was $616,237. In the 2008 quarter, it was $786,682. Sales in 2009 were 1,742 compared to 2,230 in 2008.

    All things considered, this is not a bad result given that the Westpac Bank – Melbourne Institute leading index of economic activity fell -5.1 per cent in February. A further decline from January which recorded -4.8 per cent, the weakest outcome since 1982. This index has been in negative mode since October 2008 and in all probability, a turnaround could be just months away.

    To put this into greater perspective, figures compiled by Treasury identified that the average Australian lost $25,000 in wealth in the past year. Australian residential real estate fell just three (3) per cent in 2008 compared to the United States and United Kingdom where prices fell by as much as twenty (20) per cent. The reason why Australia fared so much better was again, a lack of supply.

    Aside from escalating unemployment, a key performance indicator for global recovery, is a strong banking sector and it is well documented that our very own Australian banks are currently positioned as the strongest in the global economy – so why are they delaying our economic recovery?

    An analysis by Fujitsu Consulting identified that our banks have increased profit margin on home loans over the past two years. Fujitsu Consulting identified that the major banks are now making at least $450.00 a year more on the average mortgage. Two years ago, which just happened to be the peak of the economic boom – the cash rate was 7.25 per cent. Today it is 3.00 per cent and last week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate reductions identified ANZ, Commonwealth and Westpac, cut mortgage rates by 0.1 per cent and the NAB refused to pass on any reduction.

    Last week, I mentioned that banks still charge interest rates on credit cards at eighteen (18) to nineteen (19) per cent. This week, the RBA announced that outstanding balances on Australian credit cards presently sit at an all time Australian record of $45.4 billion (multiply that by 18.5 per cent).

    Ruddy Fantastic and his government remain tight lipped on this statistic which is understandable given he no doubt read the article published this week by the Member for Higgins – Peter Costello on www.smh.com.au

    How immoral, to hold wrong views.

    “ I’ve been feeling sorry for Belinda Neal, you will recall, is the Labor MP who let fly at a waiter when asked to move tables at Iguana Joe’s a restaurant/night spot on the NSW Central Coast. “Don’t you know who I am?” she demanded.

    Soon all of Australia knew who she was. Kevin Rudd stepped in, reprimanded her and ordered her to undergo anger management consulting.

    I’ve never been to this sort of counselling, but I can imagine how it operates. A therapist gives you a tricky case and questions you on how to respond. The idea is to keep your anger under control.

    Here’s a case study for Neal. You are flying on your private jet when the flight attendant brings you the wrong meal. Do you (a) eat it anyway; (b) point out you ordered something else and ask for an alternative; or (c) shout at the flight attendant and reduce her to tears?”

    Our banks are reducing many to tears and I don’t hear Ruddy Fantastic shouting at them. Obviously they are not on his economic menu. As our headline states, businesses want answers not questions and you can bank on that.

    Cheers ^_-^

    See you on our blogs – our most popular this week.

    1. http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/04/the-power-of-social-networking-on-the-internet/

    2. http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/04/it%e2%80%99s-all-about-position-position-position-and-i%e2%80%99m-not-talking-real-estate/

    3. http://www.rwm.com.au/2009/04/in-the-business-world-transactions-speak-louder-than-words/

    For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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    The power of social networking on the internet

    I dreamed a dream from Les Miserables . This woman Susan Boyle is absolutely amazing. She’s so sweet and no one gave her a chance, great to see some reality shows – showing the reality that there are many talented people out there. Two days old and already 2,120,269 views. Day three – 3,281,428 views. Day four – 6,778,991 views. Last update 32,427,554 views

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lp0IWv8QZY

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    It’s all about position, position, position and I’m not talking real estate!!

    Compared to what I read last Friday night when I opened my daily www.crikey.com.au electronic magazine, the new economic war is all about fighting growing global unemployment. Spare a thought.

    “WASHINGTON: A record 32.2 million people – one in every 10 Americans — received food stamps at the latest count, the government said on Thursday, and a reflection of the recession now in its 16th month. Food stamps, the major U.S. anti-hunger program, help poor people buy groceries. The average benefit was $112.82 per person in January. The January figure marks the third time in five months that enrolment set a record.” Source:Reuters

    Two editions ago, I wrote “Living in the past and struggling with the future”. Our current recession is definitely not a case of better late than never – more a case of elected politicians who have stymied our very own economies through gross mismanagement of resources, education, health, transport, employment etc.”

    Last Saturday’s edition of “The Weekend Australian Financial Review” a brilliant article was filed by Damon Kitney and Annabel Hepworth titled “The man who must stop the gravy train”.
    Sydney’s northern suburbs boast some of the best beaches in the world. But try venturing across the Spit Bridge on a clear Sydney day at any time of year and half your day will probably be gone before you arrive on the sand.

    It’s the same at morning and evening peak hour, when the narrow four-lane bridge separating Mosman and the northern beaches regularly resembles a parking lot.

    Yet when one building industry executive inquired last year of a current minister in the Rees Labor government about the chronic lack of infrastructure through the region all the way up to Palm Beach, the reply was simple: F—k ‘em, they get nothing up there, just f—k ‘em.” the minister reportedly said. These are the bad old days of NSW Labor.”

    Enter Ruddy Fantastic’s Infrastructure Australia and not before time.

    So the formula applied to NSW tax payers (Stamp Duty, Land Tax, Payroll Tax and GST allocation) doesn’t discriminate yet the allocation of infrastructure spending does? This simply explains why infrastructure in NSW is in a ‘state’ of chaos.

    I am a strong supporter of Ruddy Fantastic’s Infrastructure Australia and a fan of appointed chairman Rod Eddington. With state and territory governments now (collectively) in budget deficit, the power of infrastructure spending has been removed from the states and territories to the new (independent) governing power – Infrastructure Australia.

    With the federal government also staring down at a budget deficit, it too will have to find a way to climb back into budget surplus. In my humble opinion, the Global Financial Crisis will prove that Australia no longer requires state and territory governments and a smart vehicle like Infrastructure Australia, spells the demise of middle government and not before time.

    The corruption and waste of taxpayer revenues is well documented where more than a penny drops into the federal government’s coffers. Infrastructure Australia will in all probability be Rudd’s check (cheque) – mate for turning a budget deficit around. GST has failed miserably and taxes went up (as against the promise of coming down) – so time to bring infrastructure and taxation under the one umbrella. If it comes off (and only incompetence would stop this coming to fruition) – a brilliant political power play.

    The federal government urgently needs to beef – up the Australian economy. Now the independently operated Infrastructure Australia will be adding the much needed gravy to the beef.

    So let’s look at the upward movement of Mosman house prices from 2000 to 2008 a tale of position, power, glory and not necessarily a bad story. Today, you hold not fold – major banks don’t have non-performing loans on their respective radars as against previous banking mandates of past recessions. Simply put: markets recover and the Mosman property currency remains one of the strongest in Australia as I will identify in coming editions.

    Here is a quick brain teaser. How many $10,000,000 plus Mosman house sales were recorded from 2000 to 2008? Have a think and I will get to the answer later on.

    MOSMAN HOUSE SALES FROM 2000 – 2008 IN EXCESS OF $5,000,000

    2000

    • Total Sales – 4
    • Total Value – $22,500,000
    • Average Sale Price – $5,637,500
    • Lowest Sale Price – $5,150,000
    • Highest Sale Price – $5,900,000

      2001

    • Total Sales – 12
    • Total Value – $77,385,000
    • Average Sale Price – $6,448,750
    • Lowest Sale Price – $5,400,000
    • Highest Sale Price – $15.500,000 (Mosman’s first $10,000,000+ sale)

      2002

    • Total Sales – 9
    • Total Value – $54,650,000
    • Average Sale Price – $6,072,222
    • Lowest Sale Price – $5,400,000
    • Highest Sale Price – $9,400,000

      2003

    • Total Sales – 19
    • Total Value – $120,518,250
    • Average Sale Price – $6,343,065
    • Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
    • Highest Sale Price – $11,000,000

      2004

    • Total Sales – 16
    • Total Value – $112,151,000
    • Average Sale Price – $7,009,437
    • Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
    • Highest Sale Price – $11,000,000

      2005

    • Total sales – 16
    • Total Value – $137,720,000
    • Average Sale Price – $8,607,500
    • Lowest Sale Price – $5,100,000
    • Highest Sale Price – $14,800,000

      2006

    • Total Sales – 31
    • Total Value – $231,285,000
    • Average Sale Price – $7,460,806
    • Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
    • Highest Sale Price – $15,000,000

      2007

    • Total Sales – 44
    • Total Value – $349,650,000
    • Average Sales Price – $7,946,590
    • Lowest Sale Price – $5,050,000
    • Highest Sale Price – $22,500,000 (new Mosman record)

      2008 – Enter Global Financial Crisis

    • Total Sales – 25
    • Total Value – $170,050,000
    • Average Sale Price – $6,802,000
    • Lowest Sale Price – $5,000,000
    • Highest Sale Price – $14,700,000

      Source: Australian Property Monitors

      There have actually been 30 recorded sales in excess of $10,000,000 from 2000 – 2008. The agents I spoke with guessed between 12 and 18 sales – I will reveal more data in next week’s edition which will identify the excellent opportunities on offer in this price demographic.

      This week, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates by 0.25 per cent which now takes the cash rate (3.00 per cent) to the lowest level in forty nine years. An anti – climax because the major banks decided to either not pass on and/or minimise reductions to borrowers. With the benefit of hindsight the RBA would acknowledge that the latest rate reduction amounts to very little.

      Makes one wonder exactly who is running our country – the banks or the federal government?

      Obviously the bank deposit guarantee and the ban on short selling financials means next to nothing to them. How would they react if they were lifted? The federal government came to the party and now the banks must dance to that tune – or else.

      Better still why are the major banks charging credit cards at 600 per cent over the present cash rate of 3.00 per cent? Credit card debt should be a government priority in a recession that forces the banks to tow the line with credit card interest rates. Such a move would assist struggling families – and identify that they (banks) are no longer a law unto themselves. Messrs Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan and Lindsay Tanner, need to decisively act and Messrs Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey need to keep them honest.

      Our blog awaits your thoughtful insights.

      Have a fantastic and safe Easter.

      Cheers with chocolate on top ^__^

      For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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    In the business world transactions speak louder than words.

    The Global Financial Recession is moving in mysterious ways and it would be fair to say that micro markets are now starting to feel the pain. Property market transactions are shrinking – so too is our economy and the best way to handle the situation is with patience – not panic.

    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Ric Battellino, advised this week that the Australian economy is likely to shrink for a few more quarters and if we read between the lines, this means for the rest of 2009. Battellino said “These measures will go a long way to offsetting the negative influences on the economy coming from abroad, but the reality is that we can’t fully insulate ourselves from what is happening elsewhere in the world.” The RBA is in all probability our best barometer in the current environment given its independence in the Australian market place.

    Alan Kohler wrote this week on his popular business site www.businessspectator.com.au “Wake up and smell the downturn” (always thought provoking) “Australia has so far been cocooned by political and economic insouciance and prettied up by well – targeted government mascara: the bank deposit guarantee, and state government debt guarantees, the short selling ban on financials, the first home buyers grant, the 30 per cent extra tax deduction for business investment until June 30 and of course the huge fiscal stimulus, and especially the cash handouts.”

    The jury is still out as to whether Ruddy Fantastic’s December “cash splash” worked although this week’s announcement that February retail sales slumped by the greatest margin in nine years identifies a stark and different spin. Unemployment continues to over shadow our economy and employment prospects are worsening. RBA board member Roger Corbett, did add some perspective when he said “our retail figures would be the envy of other countries in the OECD.”

    Next week’s meeting of our RBA will be most interesting. Will the cash rate be reduced further? The standard variable mortgage rate has already fallen by 375 basis points in the past six months. In Mosman, property transactions are reducing and so too are prices although we are now starting to see some clarity in the situation.

    A home was auctioned last week at 11 Cyprian Street Mosman (mortgagee-in-possession) the first in 2009. We sold the property on 1 July 2005 for $4,725,000 and it has just sold for $4,000,000 a drop of 18 per cent. An excellent example of a recorded transaction speaking much louder than words that were talking a 30 per cent drop. So I went to RP Data to look at recorded transaction volumes for Mosman houses and apartments since 2000. Bear in mind that because of confidentiality restraints, a few 2009 house sales are yet to be recorded.

    MOSMAN HOUSES

    • 2009 – 24 sales. Averaging 8 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,425,000
    • 2008 – 264 sales. Averaging 22 sales per month with a median sale price of $2,200,000
    • 2007 – 409 sales. Averaging 34 sales per month with a median sale price of $2,230,000
    • 2006 – 396 sales. Averaging 33 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,900,000
    • 2005 – 293 sales. Averaging 24 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,850,000
    • 2004 – 310 sales. Averaging 26 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,637,500
    • 2003 – 376 sales. Averaging 31 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,699,500
    • 2002 – 392 sales. Averaging 33 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,690,000
    • 2001 – 446 sales. Averaging 37 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,250,000
    • 2000 – 349 sales. Averaging 29 sales per month with a median sale price of $1,150,000

    Source: RP Data

    If you look closely at these figures you will note that since 2000 to 2008 the total number of houses sold in Mosman was 3235. The total number of houses in Mosman is 4,900 so this equates to 66 per cent of the market sold over this period. The average trade percentage per annum is 7.3 per cent.

    Beware of agents quoting absurd sales results without revealing their source. One Mosman agency has fellow agents shaking their heads in total disbelief at the rubbish they are sending out. We are in the midst of a property market that requires truthful analysis, not distorted results – otherwise known as false advertising.

    MOSMAN APARTMENTS – STRATA TITLE

    • 2009 – 44 sales. Averaging 4 sales per month with a median sale price of $520,000
    • 2008 – 494 sales. Averaging 41 sales per month with a median sale price of $526,000
    • 2007 – 637 sales. Averaging 53 sales per month with a median sale price of $525,000
    • 2006 – 456 sales. Averaging 38 sales per month with a median sale price of $501,000
    • 2005 – 484 sales. Averaging 40 sales per month with a median sale price of $522,500
    • 2004 – 474 sales. Averaging 40 sales per month with a median sale price of $473,500
    • 2003 – 570 sales. Averaging 48 sales per month with a median sale price of $475,000
    • 2002 – 725 sales. Averaging 60 sales per month with a median sale price of $452,000
    • 2001 – 679 sales. Averaging 56 sales per month with a median sale price of $410,000
    • 2000 – 415 sales. Averaging 35 sales per month with a median sale price of $390,000

    Source: RP Data

    Richardson & Wrench Mosman & Neutral Bay (RWM) have ten house sales yet to be recorded at RP Data – the total sales value $47,440,000. Our average house sale this year is $4,744,000.

    There is anecdotal evidence that our top-end markets are struggling despite significant price reductions and in the last six months (we calculate) there were just eight house sales in excess of $5,000,000.

    We at RWM believe the $5,000,000 + market is not far off an upward run given record low interest rates. Historically, this market since 2001, has been Mosman’s most volatile. Financial losses have been extreme, even though in Australia, the principal place of residence is tax free (unlike nearly every other country).

    Why do I refer to 2001? Well in June 2001 RWM posted Mosman’s first ever double digit sale with the sale of a Hopetoun Avenue property for $15.500 million. Scroll back up and have a close look at what happened to median house prices from 2001 – 2008. Median house prices doubled yet the apartment median only recorded a 35 per cent increase. The reason why – Mosman apartments don’t have a strong top-end as against Mosman houses which historically are prolific performers. Properties are valued from the top-end down and the top – end has the greatest capital gains – tax free.

    These statistics have me intrigued so next week I will extrapolate all the $5,000,000 + house sales since 2000 and see what that reveals (I am already seeing an interesting pattern).

    The blog fired up last week and I was accused of writing ‘dribble’ (drivel). The Word Smith Award was easily won by Patricia.

    Cheers ^__^

    For this week’s recorded Mosman real estate, Cremorne real estate, Neutral Bay real estate and Cammeray real estate sales http://www.rwm.com.au/news/

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